Energy & Materials Sector

• Kunlun Energy (135 HK)‘s net profit grew 7.9% in 2H24, accelerating from 2.6% in 1H24. It is encouraging to see the dividend payout ratio increase by 2pp YoY.
• An increase in the adoption of the residential price linkage system is positive for the dollar margin, while the distortion from E&P expiry will no longer impact earnings. 
• With net cash equals HK$2.56/share, or 31% of the share price, such financial strength is unmatched by peers. Its PER valuations are also inexpensive.

• Gold (GOLD COMDTY) has been rallying up without stop for the past 13 weeks (only pause was a 1 week pullback at the end of February).
• The commodity looks overbought WEEKLY according to our tactical model, there is a chance that it will pullback this week or the next (although it could rally for longer…).
• Several players are buying Gold (GOLD COMDTY) and we do not see any sharp pullback on the horizon, obviously, any pullback is a BUY opportunity. We’ll discuss where to buy.

• MPLX, the midstream energy company, reported its fourth quarter and full-year 2024 results, highlighting strategic progress and robust financial performance.
• In 2024, MPLX achieved a full-year adjusted EBITDA of $6.8 billion, marking an 8% rise compared to the previous year, underpinned by strong operational performance across its renamed business segments: Crude Oil and Product Logistics and Natural Gas and NGL Services.
• This marks the fourth consecutive year of mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 7% since 2021.

• Asia’s base oils demand could hold steady even with high heavy-grade prices and seasonal slowdown in consumption at start of Q2 2025.
• Asia’s lube demand likely to peak in month of March, before holding at lower levels over following months.
• Lube demand in Q2 2025 likely to remain well above levels in Q1 2025 even with slowdown at start of Q2 2025.

• US base oils demand likely to get support from seasonal pick-up in requirements that coincides with round of plant maintenance work.
• Mostly-steady outright base oils prices so far this year contrast with higher prices in other markets.
• Steady export base oils values vs VGO so far this year contrast with slump, then surge in base oils values from H2 March 2024.

• The WTR Sustainable Index was down 0.3% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 0.5%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 0.6%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 0.3%).
• Energy Technology (13.0% of the index) was up 0.3%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (45.7% of the index) was down 0.2%, ClimateTech Mining was down 0.5%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (22.0% of the index) was down 0.6%.
• Top 10 Performers: VVPR, LITM, LAZR, AEVA, FHYD, EGT, WUC, NIU, SOL, AZRE

• Mongolian Mining (975 HK) disclosed its fiscal year 2024 results, which exceeded market expectations marginally, showing YoY increases in revenue and profits of 0.4% and 1.2%, respectively.
• The company indicated that the Working Group formed under Prime Minister’s Order No. 32 encompasses all national miners, not just MMCs alone. 
• Mining Law 5.4 may result in the government taking a 50% stake in the mining companies whose deposits were state-funded or increasing the mining royalty nationwide. 

• FY24 production, YE24 reserves and YE24 net cash had been reported previously.
• The FY25 guidance has been re-iterated.
• Production in March to date at Manora was 2.9 mbbl/d.

• West China Cement’s (WCC) FY 2024 results remained weak, albeit slightly improved from H1.
• Sales volumes and ASP in Mainland China continued to decline, amid poor demand from the real estate and infrastructure sectors.
• Meanwhile, performance in Africa was mixed, as rising sales volumes were offset by softer ASP.

• Europe’s Group II base oils prices rise vs prices in US and Asia in March 2025.
• Europe’s Group I brightstock price rises vs prices in US and Asia in March 2025.
• Outperformance of Europe base oils prices vs prices in US and Asia points to firmer supply-demand fundamentals in Europe than in those other markets.

• Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) has rejected a non-binding proposal from Gold Fields (GFI US). The offer is A$2.27 plus value per share of Gold Road’s shareholding in De Grey.
• The Board has rejected the offer mainly due to opportunistic timing and no value attributed to the potential underground expansion of the Gruyere mine (Gold Road/Gold Fields are JV partners).
• The proposal is a logical consolidation to eliminate dis-synergies. The offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples, precedent transactions and historical trading ranges. 

• The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
• In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
• We expect two regular changes in June 2025. There are also multiple live spin-off and M&A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.

• Short selling balance in the Korean stock market was 62.4 trillion won as of 21 March 2025, up significantly from 47.2 trillion won three months ago.
• Among the stocks in KOSPI with high short selling balance and high lending balance ratios include Posco Future M, Yuhan Corp, LG Energy Solution, and Hanwha Aerospace. 
• Among the stocks in KOSDAQ with high short selling balance and high lending balance ratios include Ecopro BM, Ecopro Co, HLB, and Eo Technics. 

• Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) has rejected an unsolicited offer from Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ), 
• In a bid to secure control over the Gruyere JV mine in WA, Gold Roads offered A$2.27/share, “plus … Gold Road’s interest in .. De Grey Mining (DEG AU).“
• To spice things up Gold Road countered with a proposal to acquire Gold Fields’ interest in Gruyere, which was also rejected by Gold Fields.

• OPEC’s output decision is seen as the most influential factor for the oil market, with prices tumbling and Brent crude trading just above $70
• OPEC shows tolerance to potential economic fallout from tariffs and plans to increase crude oil output starting in April 2025
• Uncertainty remains in the market as geopolitical tensions escalate in the Middle East and President Trump proposes a new Iranian nuclear deal with a two-month deadline, putting pressure on Iran and other countries subject to sanctions

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Nanshan Aluminium International Holdings (NAI HK) , raised around US$302m in its Hong Kong IPO.
• It is a leading high-quality alumina manufacturer in Southeast Asia.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

• For the week ending 21/Mar, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 3% due to milder weather forecasts and larger-than-expected build in the U.S. natural gas inventories.
• Henry Hub dropped by 6.4% on 20/Mar (Thu) after the EIA reported a 9 Bcf build in U.S. inventories. Prices ended the week below the 9-day and 21-day moving averages.
• Henry Hub OI PCR increased to 1.05 on 21/Mar from 1.03 on 14/Mar. Call OI rose by 3.6% WoW, while put OI grew by 5%.

• WTI futures rose 1.6% for the week ending 21/Mar, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and declining U.S. fuel inventories.
• The U.S. rig count rose by one to 593. The oil rig count dropped by one to 486 and gas rigs rose by two to 102.
• WTI OI PCR fell to 0.90 on 21/Mar from 0.93 on 14/Mar. Call OI decreased by 12.2% WoW, while put OI dropped by 14.6%.

• OPEC maintains its 2025 oil demand growth forecast at 1.45m bpd, while the IEA lowered its estimate due to weaker-than-expected economic activity.
• The EIA reduced its 2025 global liquid fuels production forecast to 1.4m bpd, down from 1.7m bpd, while maintaining its 2026 forecast at 1.6m bpd.
• Rising non-OPEC+ production, led by the U.S., Canada, and Brazil, may result in an oversupplied market by late 2025.

• Prices crosses the magical level of INR 200/kg after five months  
• Supply short but farmers who stock and didn’t rainguard benefit  
•  Rubber Board starts geo-mapping of rubber plantations

• Nanshan Aluminium (2610 HK) is forecasted to fail the fcap thresholds of both Global indices in 2025 due to low IPO free float.
• The free float is not expected to increase upon lock-up expiry because of strategic Cornerstone and substantial shareholdings.
• Probability of addition to Global indices increases for the first time in March and May 2026 following the expected omission of strategic Cornerstone holdings from filings thus free float.

• Copper prices are receiving a favorable lift following the announcement of China’s “Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption” made early last week.
• Total Social Financing (TSF) increased by 16% YoY for Jan-Feb to 9.29 trillion RMB. Despite being below the analyst forecasts (which were revised upwards), this is a strong number.
• Coupled with weaker supply (Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies ), copper prices can surpass 10k USD/ton in the medium-term. 

• Mixed data from China shows property prices down 5-7% YoY and lower land sales YTD, while weaker U.S. consumer sentiment has also negatively impacted overall commodity prices.
• China’s total social financing (TSF) for Jan-Feb reached 9.29 trillion RMB (Vs. consensus 9.75 trillion RMB). However, this figure is +16.6% YoY, signaling that substantial stimulus measures are in effect.
• We expect iron ore prices to remain rangebound between 95-120 USD/ton over the next few months as cost support is strong at the 100 USD/ton level. 

• Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
• On the IPO front, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) managed to hold on to its deal price, riding on the copper price resurgance.
• On the placements front, Judo Capital (JDO AU) was the only largish deal over the past week.

• Murphy’s law is at progress for Kum Yang (001570 KS).
• On 21 March, Kum Yang’s external auditor gave a disclaimer of opinion on the on its audit report.
• Korea Exchange is becoming more serious about delisting shady companies, especially one that receives inappropriate audit opinions for two consecutive years.

• The Sherwin-Williams Company recently concluded its earnings call for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, reporting both positive and negative aspects that investors might consider when evaluating the company’s performance and future potential.
• On the positive side, Sherwin-Williams experienced growth in several key metrics despite facing a challenging demand environment.
• For the full year, consolidated sales saw a slight increase, partly due to strategic investments aimed at gaining market share amidst softness in core accounts.

• For the week ending 14/Mar, U.S. crude inventories rose 1.7m barrels (vs. expectations of 0.8m build), gasoline stockpiles fell below expectations, and distillate inventories declined more than anticipated.
• US natural gas inventories rose by 9 Bcf for the week ending 14/Mar, more than analyst expectations of a 3 Bcf build. Inventories are 10% below the 5-year seasonal average.
• Barclays cut Exxon’s price target to USD 135 from USD 137 with an Overweight rating, while Citigroup lowered Occidental’s target to USD 51 from USD 56 with a Neutral rating.

• What you need to know: • Santacruz announced that it plans to accelerate its debt payments to Glencore, saving $40M and cleaning up the balance sheet.
• • SCZ paid Glencore $10M yesterday and will making bi-monthly payments of $7.5M to Glencore until it reaches a total of $40M by the end of October 2025.
• • We recently initiated coverage on SCZ, read the report here.

• • 4Q24 production in Uzbekistan was 10,511 (in line) rising to 12,019 boe/d in March-to-date and 12,288 boe/d in the past five days following the third successful workover in the area.
• At least six additional well candidates with similar geological characteristics have been identified, expected to further boost production.
• Multiple other independent workovers candidates being matured.

• Enterprise Products Partners LP reported its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024, demonstrating both strengths and challenges within its extensive energy infrastructure network.
• In terms of financial performance, the company experienced a notable increase in adjusted cash flow from operations, which rose by 4% to $2.3 billion compared to the same quarter the previous year.
• Net income attributable to common unitholders also increased, registering a 3% rise to $1.6 billion or $0.74 per common unit.

• In February, Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP) announced a new buyback to start when the then-existing one had not yet been completed. This is a pattern the last few years.
• On Tuesday, Idemitsu announced the method. Shareholder structure means there is pressure here, and its major peer sees buyback pressure drop imminently. 
• Be aware of tilts and timing, and what might come in May.

• The ChiNext index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
• The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
• We see 9 changes for the ChiNext index and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 index in the next index rebal event in June 2025.

• Back on the 28th January, Dropsuite Ltd (DSE AU), a backup, recovery and protection software company, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Texas-based IT automation outfit NinjaOne.
• NinjaOne’s A$5.90/share Offer was a 34.1% premium to last close. The Offer has the backing of Dropsuite’s largest shareholder, Topline Capital (31%). Board & management hold a further 9%. 
• Done & dusted no? Then Topline sold down to 19.7% on the 28th Jan, then 10.5% on the 28th Feb. The Takeover Panel now orders Topline to stop selling. 

• Unification could unlock $27-32B in value, driven by cost synergies, franking credit release, and index upweighting, enhancing Rio Tinto’s market positioning and shareholder returns.
• $2.88B in franking credits are lost annually due to the DLC structure; unification enables full utilization via higher franked dividends and strategic off-market buybacks.
• Increased ASX200 and FTSE100 weighting post-unification could drive $5-7B in passive fund inflows, improving liquidity, stock valuation, and institutional investor appeal.

• Surging demand for gold is leading to unexpected consequences in Ghana
• The gold industry is impacting cocoa production and causing environmental destruction
• Some individuals are turning to illegal gold mining out of necessity due to economic pressures

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Ambuja Cements (ACEM IN), established in 1983 by traders Narotam Sekhsaria and Suresh Neotia, leveraged strategic foresight to become a premier Indian cement giant within the diversified Adani Group.
• In 2022, Adani acquired Ambuja Cement at INR 385/share, valuing it at INR 49,620 crore ($6.4 billion), at EBITDA/ton levels (INR900-INR1,000) similar to the company’s current performance.
• Ambuja Cement is strategically positioned to achieve a substantial 44% increase in its cement production capacity by FY28, reaching a total of 140 MTPA from the current 97 MTPA.

• Chevron’s 2024 revenue rose 0.9% YoY, beating estimates by 4.7%, but EPS fell 23.5%, missing estimates by 1.2%. The downstream segment reported its first loss since 2020.
• Chevron’s Q4 production fell 1.2% YoY but 2024 output hit a record, with global and U.S. production up 7% and 19% YoY, driven by growth in the Permian.
• Chevron raised its quarterly dividend by 5% to USD 1.71/share and reaffirmed plans to generate USD 10 billion in free cash flow over two years.

• NMDC has aggressive growth plans to double its output over the next 5-6 years. Near-term guidance is also strong with plans to grow at >10% in FY26.
• New levies, delays in execution and lacklustre pricing outlook remain a key concern. However, well-aligned to surging demand from steadily growing domestic steel industry.
• Valuations: Trades at 9x TTM PE which is a slight premium to 5 yr average. Stock offers about 4-5% dividend yield and has payout ratio of >30% provides downside support. 

• China accounts for 43.6% of total Malaysian NR exports in Jan
• Recovery and Rubber Production Enhancement Plan launched
• Risda may become sole purchaser of smallholder rubber

Having required KEFI to work through regulatory overhauls and security threats, its host countries have now taken the brakes off, with the result that KEFI is launching its projects with a serendipitous tailwind of high metal prices. Major banks are signing up for Tulu Kapi in Ethiopia, with board ratification by Africa Finance Corporation following TDB last year. As such, project finance and other preparations are coming together for launch in Q225. In the meantime, KEFI has announced a JV today between its Saudi Arabian vehicle, GMCO, its local conglomerate partner ARTAR and Australian major Hancock. The JV focuses on a 900km2 major mineral belt 50km east and parallel to the analogous belt where GMCO has already discovered one of the world’s top 10% VMS deposits. This follows KEFI announcing material mineral resource upgrades at the Hawiah and Al Godeyer VMS deposits and at Jibal Qutman (gold) recently. As such, KEFI’s projects in both Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia are advancing apace.

• On 19 March, POSCO Holdings (005490 KS) announced that it is selling its stake in Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP) worth nearly 468 billion won (US$320 million).
• POSCO Holdings’ sale of nearly US$320 million worth of Nippon Steel would be about 1.3% of its market cap. 
• POSCO Holdings’ sale of its stake in Nippon Steel is a positive move for POSCO Holdings as the company is continuing to execute its strategy of selling off non-core assets.

• After being outbid for Karora Resources (KRR CN) and rebuffed by Westgold Resources (WGX AU), Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)has inked a merger with Spartan Resources (SPR AU).
• The cash scrip merger – with Ramelius shareholders holding 60.5% of MergeCo – combines operations around the Mount Magnet and Dalgaranga region in Western Australia.
• Spartan shareholder will receive A$0.25/share in cash and 0.6957 new Ramelius, or an implied price of A$1.78/share at the time of the merger, and a 27.5% premium to 30-day VWAP. 

• Trelleborg plant in the US to shut down in April, 2025
•  Israel, Prague plants too stop working in 2025
• Hangzhou to have car tire plant producing 9 million tires a year

• WTI futures rose 0.2% for the week ending 14/Mar, reversing a seven-week losing streak, driven by Middle East tensions and tighter-than-expected U.S. crude inventories.
• U.S. rig count remained unchanged at 592, after falling by one last week. The oil rig count grew by one to 487 and gas rigs fell by one to 100.
• WTI OI PCR rose to 0.93 on 14/Mar from 0.91 on 07/Mar. Call OI increased by 5.6% WoW, while put OI rose by 7.6%.

• For the week ending 14/Mar, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 6.7% due to milder weather forecasts and increased U.S. production.
• Henry Hub hit a two-year high early in the week but quickly retreated due to warmer-than-expected winter forecasts. Prices ended the week below the 9-day and 21-day moving averages.
• Henry Hub OI PCR increased to 1.03 on 14/Mar compared to 1.00 on 07/Mar. Call OI rose by 3.1% WoW, while put OI grew by 7%.

• Ecolab has reported another record-setting year with impressive growth in sales, earnings, margins, and free cash flow in 2024, amid a steady organic sales growth of 4% in the last quarter.
• The firm sees consistent success in its largest and most profitable market, the United States, where organic sales increased by mid-single digits.
• Nonetheless, geographic variations persist, with other global regions experiencing low single-digit growth, affected by mixed macroeconomic trends.

• NESR is the largest publicly listed pure-play diversified oilfield service company focused solely on serving national oil company (NOC) and international oil company (IOC) customers in most of the major Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region markets where it competes with much larger international oilfield service companies, including SLB and Halliburton.
• It operates in more than 15 countries, from an original anchor business in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Oman.
• The company now has major operations in Kuwait, the UAE, Iraq, Algeria, and Egypt, in addition to its original anchors. 

• Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) presented its quarterly results with a focus on strategic growth in the natural gas sector, highlighting both opportunities and challenges.
• The company announced substantial capital projects and acquisitions aimed at expanding its capacity and reinforcing its presence in the midstream natural gas market.
• Here’s a breakdown of the critical aspects of this announcement: On the growth front, Kinder Morgan has sanctioned four significant projects, including the expansion of the GCX system, the SS4 expansion, the Mississippi crossing line, and the new Trident line.

• Andean reported strong Q4 financial and operating results from both of its assets with Golden Queen producing 11.8Koz AuEq (+106% YoY) and San Bartolome producing 1.4Moz AgEq (+14% YoY).
• Revenue in Q4 came in at $72.8M (+49% YoY) vs. our estimate of $69.3M, supported by the strong precious metals prices.
• Adjusted EBITDA was $18.9M (+272% YoY) compared to our estimate of $17.1M.

• JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) priced its IPO at JPY820 per share to raise gross proceeds of US$2.5 billion. The shares will start trading on 19 March.
• Relevant notes: JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bear Case, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Price Range Is Fair.
• Since the price range was announced, the peers have modestly re-rated. My SoTP valuation of JPY859 is slightly above the IPO price, suggesting the price is fair.

• JX Advanced Metals raised 438.6 billion yen (US$3 billion) on its IPO offering after pricing the IPO at 820 yen per share, valuing the company at 761.3 billion yen. 
• Our base case valuation of JX Advanced Metals is price per share of 863 yen, based on P/E of 9.9x using our estimated net profit of 81 billion yen (2026E).
• Therefore, we would sell into strength if the share price of JX Advanced Metals rises to the 863 yen to 1,044 yen per share.

• On 17 March, Spartan Resources (SPR AU) entered a binding scheme with Ramelius Resources (RMS AU). Spartan shareholders will receive A$0.25 cash + 0.6957 RMS shares per SPR share. 
• The scheme vote is low risk as Ramelius has secured irrevocable commitments from Tembo Capital, 1832 Asset Management, and Fourth Sail Capital (18.89% of outstanding shares). 
• The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples, precedent transactions and historical trading ranges. The scheme meeting is targeted for mid-July. 

• Coromandel International (CRIN IN),a key Murugappa Group company, acquired a 53% controlling stake in NACL Industries for INR 820Crs on March 12, 2025 at INR 76.70 per share.
• NACL Industries is a Hyderabad-based agrochemical firm with manufacturing units, a diverse product portfolio, and technical export capabilities, including a presence in contract manufacturing.
• With this merger at decent valuation, Murugappa group(which is known for efficient capital allocation) certainly make it more efficient and value accretive for their business. 

• Ramelius and Spartan announce a transformational combination deal
• Deal includes 25 cents cash kicker and 0.6957 Ramelius shares for Spartan shareholders
• Top three Spartan shareholders, excluding Ramelius, support deal with combined 19% ownership stake

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Nanshan Aluminium International Holdings (NAI HK)  is looking to raise up to US$358m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• NA is a leading high-quality alumina manufacturer in Southeast Asia.  The firm sources bauxite domestically in Indonesia and utilizes low-temperature Bayer process.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we discuss latest industry dynamics, conduct a quick peer comparison and discuss the company’s valuation.

• JSE indices will be rebalanced in the closing auction on Thursday. JSE equity derivatives close out at midday as well – a reminder to get those rolls in.
• AMS will enter the Top 40 with EXX falling out. AHR, BOX & SRI will enter the ALSI index, with RBO falling out.
• The ALSI is made up of constituents in the small, mid and large cap indices and constituents are reviewed semi-annually in March and September.

• Fujiyama Power Systems Ltd (1742651D IN) (FPSL) is planning to raise about US$138m through its upcoming India IPO. The lead bookrunners for the deal are Motilal, SBI.
• FPSL was established in 1996. The company specializes in solar panel and inverter manufacturing, covering on-grid, hybrid, and off-grid solutions, along with lead acid and lithium-ion battery production. 
• As per CARE Report, it was the 1st Indian company to develop an SMT-based inverter with a single card in 2000. 

• In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments. 
• The  downward pressure has brought the S&P to the bottom of our range at 5600-5670.
• Friday’s and Monday’s tape action alleviated oversold conditions as strong demand was a clear positive. We need the 5500-5600 level to hold in order to remain constructive.

• Asia’s base oils prices extend rise versus feedstock/competing fuel prices.
• Increasingly firm margins coincide with closed arbitrage to more distant outlets like Americas, and less feasible arbitrage to logistically-closer markets like India and Middle East.
• Firm margins and closed arbitrage point to tight supply.

• After the death of Dongjin Semichem’s founder Lee on 25 February, the company has yet to reveal the details of the succession plan.
• There is a potential for a family feud between the two sons of founder Lee if indeed there was no will directing the late chairman Lee’s ownership of Dongjin Holdings.
• A potential family feud for the control of Dongjin Semichem could lead to a grab for shares by both the family members as well as the general investors.

• JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)’s parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), raised around US$2.5bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
• JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
• We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

• The conversation focuses on the current state of the uranium market, with a emphasis on short interest and sentiment towards uranium stocks.
• Guy discusses the reasons behind the consensus short uranium position among hedge funds, and how it originated from thematic responses and shifts in the market.
• Despite the negative sentiment and high short interest, Guy remains optimistic about the potential for a sentiment shift in the uranium market.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

•  Dumping of gloves from Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam into India alleged  
•  IRGMA petitions Indian Government for intervention to stop  
• DGTR recommends ADD on imports of titanium dioxide from China

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Nickel Industries, West China Cement, China Hongqiao
• In the US, the March (preliminary) University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 57.9 (63.0 e / 64.7 p), declining for three consecutive months and reaching the lowest level since November 2022.
• Many consumers cited the high uncertainty around policy and other economic factors, as frequent gyrations in economic policies make it very difficult for consumers to plan for the future, according to Surveys of Consumers director Joanne Hsu.

• Petróleo Brasileiro S.A., also known as Petrobras, delivered an impressive operational performance in 2024, showing strong cash generation and substantial investment while facing certain external challenges.
• The company’s operational cash flow reached an impressive BRL 204 billion, showcasing its capability to generate significant resources and enhance financial robustness.
• Despite global challenges, including a decline in Brent crude prices and a 40% drop in diesel crack spread, Petrobras maintained strong financial health with its financial debt reduced to the lowest level since 2008, at BRL 23 billion.

• APA Corporation reported its fourth-quarter and year-end 2024 financial and operational results, demonstrating both strategic progress and ongoing challenges.
• The company has been focusing on strengthening its portfolio, primarily in the Permian Basin and Egypt, while also advancing its exploration activities in Suriname.
• Positively, APA Corporation has successfully reshaped its business by acquiring assets in the Permian Basin and finalizing a gas price agreement in Egypt, facilitating additional drilling opportunities.

• As of today, we’re still short cotton, but we see a major potential reversal pattern brewing in the market.
• A worsening economic outlook provided major headwinds to the price of cotton during the past few couple of months.
• Overall, the market has corrected more than 50% since Q2 of 2022.

• Frontline plc, a prominent player in the tanker industry, recently held its fourth quarter 2024 results conference.
• The discussion highlighted the company’s financial performance, fleet status, market conditions, and potential future impacts of geopolitical factors affecting the global oil trade.
• In terms of financial performance, Frontline reported a profit of $66.7 million for the quarter, translating to $0.30 per share, while the adjusted profit stood at $45.1 million or $0.20 per share.

• EOG Resources has reported its financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, reflecting a year of substantial achievement and strategic investment across various fronts.
• EOG Resources has managed to exceed its prior production forecasts, maintain capital discipline, and achieve significant shareholder returns despite industry volatility.
• Notably, the company achieved a 25% return on capital employed, demonstrating its operational efficiency and financial robustness.

• There are 7 adds for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in March. There are plenty of float and capping changes too.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 5.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$610m. There are 11 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
• Spartan Resources /Australi (SPR AU) and Ora Banda Mining (OBM AU) will be added to some of the S&P/ASX indices at the same time, increasing flow and impact.

• Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) and Spartan Resources /Australi (SPR AU) have signed a binding Transaction Implementation Deed to enter into a ‘Transformational Combination’.
• For each share of Spartan Resources (SPR AU) held, shareholders will receive A$0.25 in cash and 0.6957 Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) shares, implying a value of A$1.78/share for Spartan Resources.
• The merger is expected to complete late July/ early August, and the merged entity could be added to the S&P/ASX 100 Index in September.

• The AFR reports that Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) and Spartan Resources /Australi (SPR AU) are in advanced talks about a low-premium merger through a scheme of arrangement. 
• A merger will result in synergies due to more significant gold production and lower costs. By adding ore to Mount Magnet, Spartan could fix Ramelius’ near-term production gap. 
• My analysis suggests an exchange ratio of around 0.82x (0.82x RMS share per SPR share). This implies an SPR price of A$1.80, a 12.8% premium to the last close.

• A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
• ECM developments: JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) to list on 19 March.
• Event-Driven developments: Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU), De Grey Mining (DEG AU), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), ESR Group (1821 HK), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Tenma Corp (7958 JP).

• Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN) is set to see significant earnings upgrades driven surge in silver prices (40% EBITDA share), local currency weakness and benign costs.
• Planning for major US$2-2.5b growth expenditure to double output over next 3=5 years.
• Valuations: Entering a strong earnings upgrades cycle. Stock can re-rate despite trading at slight premium to historic averages. Stake sales by key holders is a risk.

• Permian Resources reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results, demonstrating stability and growth in its operations.
• The company delivered its highest-ever production and free cash flow per share metrics in Q4 2024.
• Effective field execution and a focus on cost control led to a significant reduction in drilling and completion (D&C) costs, while maintaining a robust cash flow.

• Sealed Air Corporation’s recent earnings provided a comprehensive overview of the company’s performance, touching on both achievements and areas for improvement.
• The company has been focusing on stabilizing business performance, strengthening its leadership team, and transforming its operations into two market focused segments: Food and Protective.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.