Crypto

• Blockchain Basics: Blockchain is a decentralized ledger recording transactions without a central authority. Participants validate and store immutable, transparent data, ensuring trust and security throughout the network.
• Blockchain Layers: The blockchain ecosystem consists of Layer 1 (core blockchain), Layer 2 (scaling solutions), and Layer 3 (applications), all working together to enable secure, scalable interactions with blockchain technology.
• Key Concepts: Blockchain principles include immutability (data cannot be changed), permissionless participation (open to anyone), and decentralization (no single entity controls the system), ensuring security, transparency, and trust across networks.

• The crypto market showed some encouraging signs over the weekend, despite Coinbase showing a significant discount on its Bitcoin and Ethereum prices.
• This suggests that Coinbase users are net sellers, possibly due to concerns about the 69,330 bitcoins seized by the U.S. government in connection with the Silk Road case.
• However, we believe it is very unlikely that the government will liquidate these bitcoins anytime soon.

• September showed positive returns, bucking the seasonal negative returns we have seen in previous years.
• BTCUSD (6.79%), ETHUSD (2.99%), SOLUSD (10.51%) and OTHERS index (15.86%) were green across the board.
• The odds of an explosive expansionary phase significantly increased in September.

• Prediction markets are considered efficient tools for aggregating information
• Studies show that prediction markets are often better at predicting outcomes than professional pollsters
• Small movements in prediction markets may not always accurately reflect significant changes in underlying factors, leading to debates over market efficiency and manipulation.

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• On August 27, the decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) Maker, known for managing the world’s largest partially decentralized stablecoin, Dai, announced that it would rebrand to Sky on September 18.
• Starting on that date, Dai stablecoin holders gained the ability to convert their Dai 1-to-1 into Sky Dollar (USDS), the new stablecoin of the Sky ecosystem.
• This shift is part of Maker’s “Endgame” roadmap—a vision that co-founder Rune Christensen has been developing for years.

• The crypto market showed some positive momentum over the weekend.
• We will not repeat ourselves on why we are highly bullish going into this fourth quarter, so we will spare you that for now.
• What is notable is the steady stream of major financial institutions announcing new digital asset services on a weekly basis.

• For weeks, we have been anticipating October with optimism, given multiple positive factors for the crypto market.
• Among these is the conclusion of the U.S. Dollar liquidity squeeze in September, which we expect to be followed by increasing liquidity from this month onward.
• In Monday’s edition of Crypto Crisp, we outlined additional reasons for our bullish outlook on crypto throughout the fourth quarter.

• The report from Delphi Digital discusses significant macroeconomic changes, including the Federal Reserve’s move to lower interest rates and China’s liquidity injections, creating a positive environment for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
• In the crypto markets, there is growing optimism as BTC shows signs of a trend reversal and altcoins stage rallies.
• ETF inflows, particularly in BTC, are increasing after a slow summer.

• We have emphasized multiple times that we have been eagerly anticipating the fourth quarter of this year, driven by numerous factors that make us extremely bullish.
• With September’s liquidity squeeze now behind us, we expect U.S. Dollar liquidity to rise significantly through the remainder of the year.
• Additionally, there are several other strong tailwinds: robust seasonal trends, Chinese stimulus measures, the post-fourth Bitcoin halving phase—which historically delivers substantial returns—the possibility of positive focus on crypto during the U.S. presidential election, and a market that tends to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment, many of the reasons for which were discussed in Crypto Moves #42.

• Global liquidity trifecta: US, China, and Japan’s policy shifts hint at a bullish environment for risk assets, including crypto.
• BTC’s trend reversal? Early signs of a market shift suggest a potential breakout as investor sentiment changes.
• Solana ecosystem is gaining momentum—real-world applications and a booming DeFi landscape are setting the stage for a strong 2024.

• The 2024 U.S. Presidential election is fast approaching, set for November 5.
• On this day, voters will choose whether to elect current Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat, for her first full term, or return Republican Donald Trump to the White House.
• In Crypto Moves #28, we highlighted how this year’s presidential election is more centered on the crypto industry than ever before.

• Following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision last Wednesday to lower the dollar interest rate by 50 basis points, the crypto market has responded positively.
• Bitcoin has climbed 5.56%, while Ethereum has surged 15.25%.
• The market conditions are increasingly aligning for a major upward move.