Credit

In today’s briefing:

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greentown China
UST yields rose 2-4 bps yesterday, led by the front end, following the strong jobless claims data. The yield on the 2Y UST jumped 4 bps to 3.52%, while the yield on the 10Y UST climbed 3 bps to 4.10%. Fed-dated OIS were steady, and continued to price in a 92% probability of a rate cut next Wednesday.
Equities edged up slightly towards record high levels. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.1% and 0.2% to 6,857 and 23,505, respectively.

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Dec 05

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

In today’s briefing:

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Telecom 3Q25: Stronger Margins and a More Constructive Outlook

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greenko Energy, New World Development
UST yields fell 2-3 bps yesterday, following the release of weaker than expected November ADP payrolls data. The yield on the 2Y and 10Y UST declined 2 bps to 3.49% and 4.06%, respectively. Equities rose, as the labour market slowdown reinforced market expectations for a Fed rate cut this month. The S&P 500 advanced 0.3% to 6,850, while the Nasdaq was up 0.2% at 23,454.
In the US, the ADP employment report showed that private-sector payrolls declined by 32 k in November (10 k e / 47 k revised p), with payrolls having fallen in four of the past six months. Hiring has been choppy of late, as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment, according to ADP chief economist Nela Richardson. While the November slowdown was broad-based, it was led by a pullback among small businesses.

Telecom 3Q25: Stronger Margins and a More Constructive Outlook

We upgrade Telecom Argentina to Overweight as the TMA acquisition strengthens its market position, supports operating momentum, and benefits from reduced political risk and improving macro stability.
Regulatory uncertainty remains meaningful, and we think clearer visibility on the Telefónica approval process and integration timeline will be critical for value realization and credit performance.
• We see more value in the TEOAR 2031s given their lower duration, attractive relative spreads versus the EM B Index and peers, and supportive operating trends despite weak liquidity.

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Dec 04

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

In today’s briefing:

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

The UST curve twisted marginally steeper yesterday, as the market focused on the selection for the next Fed Chairman amid little macro developments.
The yield on the 2Y UST declined 2 bps to 3.51%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was unchanged at 4.09%.
Equities recovered from Monday’s sell-off, in tandem with a rise in cryptocurrencies. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.2 and 0.6% to 6,829 and 23,414, respectively.

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Dec 03

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

In today’s briefing:

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

UST yields increased yesterday, led by the long end, following Merck & Co’s USD 8 bn eight-part offering and in tandem with a jump in JGB yields following rate-hike comments by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda.
The yield on the 2Y UST rose 4 bps to 3.53%, while the yield on the 10Y UST jumped 7 bps to 4.09%. Equities retreated on risk aversion, amid a sell-off in cryptocurrencies.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined 0.5% and 0.4% to 6,813 and 23,276, respectively.

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Dec 02

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

In today’s briefing:

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Vanke, Genting Berhad, Meituan
UST yields climbed 1-3 bps on Friday, albeit there were no material catalysts as the market returned after Thanksgiving. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 1 bp to 3.49%, while that on the 10Y UST was up 2 bps at 4.01%. Equities climbed on thin trading in a shortened postholiday session. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq advanced 0.5% and 0.7% to 6,849 and 23,366, respectively.
China’s November official manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.2 (49.4 e / 49.0 p), albeit remaining in contraction territory for the eighth straight month. The non-manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.5 (50.0 e / 50.1 p), with the composite PMI declining to 49.7 (50.0 p).

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Nov 29

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

In today’s briefing:

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Health and Happiness (H&H)
China’s industrial profits fell 5.5% y-o-y in October, reversing from the sharp double-digit growth in September and August. Industrial profits grew 1.9% in 10M/25, decelerating from 3.2% in 9M.
Profits from the high-tech sector remained robust at 8.0% in 10M, with profits from smart unmanned aircraft and smart in-vehicle equipment registering triple-digit growth.

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Nov 28

Daily Brief Credit: Gerdau 3Q25: North America Drives Earnings as Brazil Margins Compress and more

In today’s briefing:

Gerdau 3Q25: North America Drives Earnings as Brazil Margins Compress
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Gerdau 3Q25: North America Drives Earnings as Brazil Margins Compress

Persistent pricing pressure in Brazil limits margin recovery, while reduced future investments highlight challenges; stronger trade-defense measures will be needed to restore competitiveness.
North America remains Gerdau’s key earnings driver, supported by tariffs, healthy construction demand, and a resilient balance sheet that underpins credit strength.
We maintain Neutral, seeing limited spread-compression potential; we find greater value in the 2044s for their yield pickup and see overall valuations close to fair value across the curve.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Softbank Group, China Vanke
UST yields were mixed yesterday. The UST curve twisted slightly steeper, with the yield on the 2Y UST rising 2 bps to 3.48%, while the 10Y was unchanged at 4.00%. Equities rose for a fourth day, supported by a continued recovery in tech stocks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbed 0.7% and 0.8% to 6,813 and 23,215, respectively.
The Fed Beige Book for November 2025 showed that overall consumer spending had declined further since the October report.

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Nov 27

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

In today’s briefing:

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
CSN 3Q25: Mining Strength Offsets Steel Weakness

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Bharti Airtel, China Hongqiao, West China Cement
UST yields fell for a fourth straight day, led by the front end, following reports that Kevin Hassett has emerged as the front-runner to be the next Fed chairman.
The yield declines were also supported by soft September retail sales and PPI data.

CSN 3Q25: Mining Strength Offsets Steel Weakness

We maintain Overweight on the 2031s and 2032s for their attractive carry, meaningful spread pickup versus LatAm BB peers, and stronger downside protection at current discounted prices.
We think credit metrics will remain stable, supported by strong liquidity covering maturities through 2027, easier-to-roll bank debt, and expected EBITDA improvement from recovering steel and resilient mining.
We see potential spread compression from recovering steel prices, protectionist measures, asset-sale-driven deleveraging, and solid operating assets, reinforcing the bonds’ attractive relative value at current wide levels.

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Nov 26

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

In today’s briefing:

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Delhi Int’l Airport
UST yields fell yesterday, led by the long end, on the back of a solid 2-year note auction and surprisingly dovish comments from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. The yield on the 2Y UST declined 1 bp to 3.50%, while that on the 10Y UST was down 4 bps at 4.03%.
Equities rose for a second day, as tech stocks recovered slightly from the prior week’s sell-off. The S&P 500 advanced 1.5% to 6,705, and the Nasdaq jumped 2.7% to 22,872.

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Nov 25

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

In today’s briefing:

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Braskem 3Q25: Liquidity Strain Deepens as Bonds Remain in Distressed Territory

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: ReNew Energy, China Jinmao
UST yields fell on Friday, led by the front end, after New York Fed President John Williams said he saw room for another rate cut in the near term, amid a softening labour market.
The yield on the 2Y UST declined 6 bps to 3.53%, while that on the 10Y UST dropped 5 bps to 4.09%. Equities recovered on Friday, but remained down for the week. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 1.0% and 0.9% to 6,603 and 22,273, respectively.

Braskem 3Q25: Liquidity Strain Deepens as Bonds Remain in Distressed Territory