Credit

• In today’s Convertibles Brief publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Lenovo
• Credit markets widened on Friday, with the iTraxx X-Over increasing 8 bps to 304 bps.
• European bourses declined 0.1-1.3%, except for the IBEX 35 (+1.0%). In the US, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 1.3% and 2.2%, respectively.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Gajah Tunggal, Lenovo
• In the US, advance retail sales came in slightly above expectations at 0.4% m-o-m in October (0.3% e / 0.8% revised p), driven by higher auto sales. In addition, retail sales growth for September was revised upwards to 0.8% (from 0.4%). Retail sales excluding auto expanded 0.1% m-o-m (0.3% e / 1.0% revised p).
• Separately, industrial production fell 0.3% m-o-m in October (-0.4% e / -0.5% revised p), owing to the Boeing machinist strike and lingering impact from hurricanes Milton and Helene.

• Fed Chairman Jerome Powell yesterday said that there is no need for the US central bank to rush rate cuts.
• He said: “The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates,” adding that “the strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully”.
• Following Mr Powell’s comments, traders reduced their expectations for an interest-rate cut in December to 60% from 80% earlier. 

• USTs were sold off across the curve yesterday. The yield on the 10Y UST increased 12 bps to 4.42%.
• Open interest rose for the fourth consecutive session on the 2Y notes contract, with traders building up bearish positions following the US presidential election.
• Traders are pricing in just over a 50% chance that officials will deliver another quarter-point rate cut in December, and are now pricing in about two US rate cuts through June 2025 (vs. almost four projected at the start of last week).

• We expect the company to encounter challenges in free cash flow generation, which will pressure credit metrics and hinder post-acquisition deleveraging.
• The 2033 notes are the only ones within Minerva’s capital structure that do not trade tight to the LatAm BB and EM BB curves. 
• However, we believe a better entry point for these notes may emerge based on our expectation of a weakening credit profile in the short term.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Adani Green Energy
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Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

1. Vedanta Resources
2. Longfor Properties
3. Anton Oilfield
4. Adani Green Energy
5. Reliance Industries

and more…

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Vedanta Resources

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Adani Green Energy
• Anton Oilfield

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• China Vanke
• Reliance Industries
• West China Cement

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• China Jinmao Holdings
• Yuexiu Property