Credit

• In the US, the November nonfarm payrolls came in marginally above expectations at 227 k (220 k e), and were up significantly from the upwardly revised 36 k figure for October (which was impacted by two hurricanes and a strike at Boeing).
• Still, the three-month average payroll growth slowed from earlier in the year to 173 k.
• Meanwhile, the unemployment rate inched up to 4.2% (4.1% e / 4.1% p). Average hourly earnings growth remained steady at 0.4% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.4% p) and 4.0% y-o-y (3.9% e / 4.0% p).

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Delta Dunia Makmur, Gajah Tunggal
• In the US, the trade deficit narrowed to USD 73.8 bn in October (USD 75.0 bn e / USD 83.8 bn revised). Imports fell 4% to USD 339.6 bn, while exports declined 1.6% to USD 265.7 bn.
• Separately, initial jobless claims for the week ended November 30th rose to 224 k (215 k e / 215 k revised p). The focus today is on the November nonfarm payrolls report.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: GMR Hyderabad, Rakuten Group
• In the US, the ISM services index fell to 52.1 (55.7 e / 56.0 p). This was the slowest pace in three months, albeit the gauge remained in expansion territory for the ninth month this year. Meanwhile, the November (final) S&P services PMI rose to 56.0 (55.0 p), albeit below the preliminary estimate of 57.0.
• The composite PMI climbed to 54.9 (54.1 p). Separately, the ADP employment survey showed that private sector job growth slowed to 146 k (150 k e / 184 k revised p).

• We are initiating coverage on YPF with an Outperform recommendation.
• Improving macroeconomic conditions in Argentina and YPF’s strategic focus on expanding unconventional production and investing in infrastructure, particularly export capacity, are expected to enhance its credit profile.
• We favor the YPFDAR (Caa3/CCC/CCC) 8.500% 2029 unsecured bonds, YPFDAR 9.000% 2029 unsecured bonds, and YPFDAR 9.500% 2031 secured bonds.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Studio City, Yuexiu Property, Rakuten Group
• In the US, the October JOLTS job openings came in above estimates at 7.74 mn (7.52 mn e / 7.37 mn p).
• Long-end USTs fell yesterday, while the front end outperformed on expectations that a December rate cut remains on the table.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: New World Development, Indofood CBP, Azure Power, Adani Green Energy, Meituan
• In the US, treasuries climbed in a holiday-shortened session on Friday, with yields falling 8-10 bps across the curve. The yield on the 2Y UST dropped 8 bps to 4.15%, while that on the 10Y UST declined 10 bps to 4.17%.
• Equities rallied, with the S&P 500 rising 0.6% to a new record high of 6,032.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Water Affairs, Shui On Land, Rakuten Group, Vedanta Resources
• In the US, the November ISM manufacturing index came in above estimates at 48.4 (47.5 e / 46.5 p). The prices paid component fell to 50.3 (55.2 e / 54.8 p), while the new orders component rose to 50.4 (48.0 e / 47.1 p).
• Separately, the November (final) US manufacturing PMI climbed to 49.7 (47.3 p), above the preliminary estimate of 48.8.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Shui On Land
• The US market was closed for Thanksgiving yesterday.
• The Biden administration is weighing additional curbs on the sale of semiconductor and AI memory chips to China, reported Bloomberg on Wednesday.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Wynn Macau, ReNew Energy, Softbank Group, Vedanta Resources
• In the US, October personal income came in above estimates at 0.6% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.3% p).
• Meanwhile, personal spending slowed to 0.4% m-o-m (0.4% e / 0.6% revised p).

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Adani Ports, Vedanta Resources, Seazen Group
• In the US, October new home sales fell 17.3% m-o-m (-1.8% e / 7.0% revised p) to an annualised 610 k units, the lowest in almost two years, amid rising mortgage rates as well as disruptions caused by hurricanes Helene and Milton. Separately, the Conference Board consumer confidence index increased to 111.7 in November (111.8 e / 109.6 p), the highest since August 2023.
• “November’s increase was mainly driven by more positive consumer assessments of the present situation, particularly regarding the labour market. Compared to October, consumers were also substantially more optimistic about future job availability, which reached its highest level in almost three years”, according to Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board.

• EA’s Q3 results on 14-November was disappointing as expected on the declining EBITDA.
• Criat’s iRAP Global Plus PD Toolkit (iRap) still indicates the implied international credit rating of “B+” which gives us relative comfort for the credit.
• EA’s story rests on the usage of its network to extend debt maturity and sell assets, and not so much on cashflow which may be generated in the near term. 

• Treasuries surged yesterday, with yields falling 10-13 bps across the curve after a strong auction of 2Y notes and in the wake of US President-elect Donald Trump’s nomination of Scott Bessent as the next Treasury Secretary.
• Mr Bessent is expected to implement Mr Trump’s tax cuts, while reducing the budget deficit and boosting GDP growth through deregulation and other pro-growth policies.
• The yield on the 2Y UST fell 10 bps to 4.27%, while that on the 10Y UST declined 13 bps to 4.28%. 

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone
• Bharti Airtel