The price review period for the FTSE All-World/All-Cap March 2022 SAIR ended on 31 December. The changes are expected to be announced on 18 February and implemented on 18 March.
There are a few potential inclusions to the AW Index, a lot of inclusions to the AC Index, and a lot of migrations from the AC to the AW Index.
There are 20 stocks that have at least US$20m passive buying and over 2 days ADV to buy. That increases to 25 stocks that have at least US$10m to buy.
With life getting back to the usual ways following changes due to COVID-19, the Japanese cosmetics sector was expected to experience an uplift in earnings, mainly through inbound demand.
However, the extension of China’s common prosperity crackdowns to the live-streaming e-commerce business, could more than offset a possible recovery in inbound demand.
Thus, we fear that there is additional downside risk to Japanese cosmetics multiples in the short term.
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The price review period for the FTSE All-World/All-Cap March 2022 SAIR ended on 31 December. The changes are expected to be announced on 18 February and implemented on 18 March.
There are loads of potential inclusions to the index for China – a lot of the changes are a result of stocks being included in Northbound Stock Connect.
There are stocks that are potential inclusions in other indices and will have additional passive inflows. Nongfu Spring could also be included in the FTSE China 50 and HSI indices.
Typically, the inclusions rally and the deletions drop between announcement and implementation with a big jump immediately post announcement. Pre-positioning prior to announcement is important.
Best World International (BEST SP) share price has been hammered due to the recent article in Business Times, although the company has addressed them one by one. The annual meeting that recently took place in their office in Singapore shed some light on the seemingly “new but not so new” franchise business model in China. The company also has started to engage Key Opinion Leaders (KOL) aka social media influencers as part of their social selling campaign.
An attractively valued company with a minimum market cap of USD $1 billion but no sell-side coverage.Doubledragon Properties (DD PM) meets those criteria.
Why Read This Report?
Learn about the Philippines youngest self-made billionaire*, Edgar ‘Injap’ Sia, how he created one of the largest fast-food chains (Mang Inasal) in the country and successfully sold it to Jollibee Foods (JFC PM) for over USD$100 M.
After selling Mang Inasal in 2010, Sia started building DoubleDragon (DD) as he joined hands with Tony Tan (founder of Jollibee Foods (JFC PM) ). DD was listed in 2014 at a market value of USD$85 M (PHP2/share) and reached a market cap of over USD$3 B USD two years after listing (PHP70/share).
DD’s valuation mid-2016 was overhyped and overvalued.
From mid-2016 to late 2018 the share price fell by approximately 75%. Last year the stock bottomed at PHP17.2 despite fundamentals improving drastically between 2016 and 2018.
This has created a unique opportunity to invest in a diversified property company whose main earnings contributor will come from building neighborhood malls in suburban communities outside Metro Manila. It is forecast that 90% of its revenues would be recurring in nature by FY20.
We value DD on a blended a) P/E multiple and b) Cap Rate basis.
DD recently traded around PHP 22/share and is currently valued at 9.5x FY20 P/E, a steep discount to its industry peers. Assuming the company achieves PHP10.8 B in recurring revenues by FY20 the market is currently valuing the company at a 21% Cap Rate vs 7% for its primary peer Sm Prime Holdings (SMPH PM). DD should trade at a discount to SM (long track record, higher liquidity, included in PSE index) but the gap is too wide.
We argue DD should trade at a) 15x P/E and b) 10% cap rate. Combining the two valuation methods we arrive at a blended Fair Value of PHP 40.31/share, or 83% upside from current levels.
Assumptions
Fair Value
15x 2020 P/E
PHP 35
10% Cap Rate
PHP 45.63
BLENDED FAIR VALUE
40.31 PHP
The founders control 70% of the company and expect to grow the current USD$1.2B market cap exponentially the coming 3-5 years. DoubleDragon is a potential multi-bagger in the making.
Catalysts to unlock value at DoubleDragon would be:
FY18 results publication by early April 2019
Delivery of 100 operating CityMalls by FY20
The passing of workable REIT law
Delivery of PHP5.5B FY20 profit target
FCF inflection point coming closer in FY20
Re-discovery by sell-side firms as index inclusion looms
Visibility into FY21-FY25 dividend potential
Footnote: *Injap was reported as having USD$1 B in assets by Forbes in 2017, as the share price of DD has fallen we estimate this has dropped to approximately USD$ 400-500 M, which would still rank him among the top-25 wealthiest individuals in the Philippines.
We believe this presents an excellent opportunity to look at the stock on the short side again.
We would also refer readers to an article from Livedoor news which delves into the company’s issues from a local industry insider’s perspective. The article is in Japanese and the google translated version is almost unintelligible but we summarise the salient points and our perspective below.
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Best World International (BEST SP) share price has been hammered due to the recent article in Business Times, although the company has addressed them one by one. The annual meeting that recently took place in their office in Singapore shed some light on the seemingly “new but not so new” franchise business model in China. The company also has started to engage Key Opinion Leaders (KOL) aka social media influencers as part of their social selling campaign.
An attractively valued company with a minimum market cap of USD $1 billion but no sell-side coverage.Doubledragon Properties (DD PM) meets those criteria.
Why Read This Report?
Learn about the Philippines youngest self-made billionaire*, Edgar ‘Injap’ Sia, how he created one of the largest fast-food chains (Mang Inasal) in the country and successfully sold it to Jollibee Foods (JFC PM) for over USD$100 M.
After selling Mang Inasal in 2010, Sia started building DoubleDragon (DD) as he joined hands with Tony Tan (founder of Jollibee Foods (JFC PM) ). DD was listed in 2014 at a market value of USD$85 M (PHP2/share) and reached a market cap of over USD$3 B USD two years after listing (PHP70/share).
DD’s valuation mid-2016 was overhyped and overvalued.
From mid-2016 to late 2018 the share price fell by approximately 75%. Last year the stock bottomed at PHP17.2 despite fundamentals improving drastically between 2016 and 2018.
This has created a unique opportunity to invest in a diversified property company whose main earnings contributor will come from building neighborhood malls in suburban communities outside Metro Manila. It is forecast that 90% of its revenues would be recurring in nature by FY20.
We value DD on a blended a) P/E multiple and b) Cap Rate basis.
DD recently traded around PHP 22/share and is currently valued at 9.5x FY20 P/E, a steep discount to its industry peers. Assuming the company achieves PHP10.8 B in recurring revenues by FY20 the market is currently valuing the company at a 21% Cap Rate vs 7% for its primary peer Sm Prime Holdings (SMPH PM). DD should trade at a discount to SM (long track record, higher liquidity, included in PSE index) but the gap is too wide.
We argue DD should trade at a) 15x P/E and b) 10% cap rate. Combining the two valuation methods we arrive at a blended Fair Value of PHP 40.31/share, or 83% upside from current levels.
Assumptions
Fair Value
15x 2020 P/E
PHP 35
10% Cap Rate
PHP 45.63
BLENDED FAIR VALUE
40.31 PHP
The founders control 70% of the company and expect to grow the current USD$1.2B market cap exponentially the coming 3-5 years. DoubleDragon is a potential multi-bagger in the making.
Catalysts to unlock value at DoubleDragon would be:
FY18 results publication by early April 2019
Delivery of 100 operating CityMalls by FY20
The passing of workable REIT law
Delivery of PHP5.5B FY20 profit target
FCF inflection point coming closer in FY20
Re-discovery by sell-side firms as index inclusion looms
Visibility into FY21-FY25 dividend potential
Footnote: *Injap was reported as having USD$1 B in assets by Forbes in 2017, as the share price of DD has fallen we estimate this has dropped to approximately USD$ 400-500 M, which would still rank him among the top-25 wealthiest individuals in the Philippines.
We believe this presents an excellent opportunity to look at the stock on the short side again.
We would also refer readers to an article from Livedoor news which delves into the company’s issues from a local industry insider’s perspective. The article is in Japanese and the google translated version is almost unintelligible but we summarise the salient points and our perspective below.
Our recent conversation with CyberAgent’s IR team suggests that a significant improvement in the OP margin is unlikely in the next few quarters. The OP margins of both Game business and the Internet Advertisement, while likely to improve gradually, are likely to remain low compared to recent history due to higher advertising and personnel costs.
Upfront investments in AbemaTV are likely to continue until the target of 10m Weekly Average Users (WAU) is met, which could take a year or more. The company expects around 50% of AbemaTV revenue to eventually come from premium users, which seems to be a shift in strategy, from a “free” service towards a more hybrid model.
CyberAgent’s share price closed at ¥4,050 on Tuesday, up 7.1% from its previous close, following the news that the stock was added to the Goldman Sachs’ conviction list with a reiterated buy rating. However, even before this, CyberAgent’s share price had been on a steady increase over the past two weeks (+29.0%), recovering from a one-year low in early February. This increase, despite rather mediocre 1Q results, a downward revision of OP guidance, and lack of any major short term catalysts is an indication that the market deems CyberAgent to be undervalued – mainly on the AbemaTV front.
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So-Young (SY US) is looking to raise US$150m in its upcoming IPO. The company filed its prospectus with the SEC on Monday.
The company operates online platforms (mobile, website, and WeChat mini program) for discovering, evaluating, and reserving medical aesthetic services in China. It helps medical aesthetic service providers acquire customers through user generated content and other creative content format.
In this insight, we will look at the company’s business model, analyze its financial and operating performance, review the competitive landscape and point out some questions for management.
We mentioned in Koito Outperforms in 3Q While Stanley Disappoints; Latter Still on Track to Achieve FY03/19E Target, that Koito Manufacturing (7276 JP) has managed to beat consensus estimates in 3Q after a series of disappointing results in the previous quarters. This was despite the weak nine-month ended results. The company cited the loss in sales from China (as a result of the deconsolidation of the Shanghai unit) alongside unfavourable economic conditions especially in China and Europe as key reasons for the decline in earnings. Our visit to Koito in March, gave us more insight on the effect of its deconsolidated Shanghai unit and its future plans in China, alongside their investment for capacity expansions and new products. Following these insights, we have revised our view on Koito in a slightly positive manner.
Indofood Agri Resources (IFAR SP) has announced PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk, its controlling shareholder with 74.52%, has made a voluntary conditional cash offer of $0.28/share for all IFAR shares it does not own. The offer price, which is a 7.7% premium to last close, is not final. Any dividend declared will reduce the consideration under the proposal.
The Offer is conditional on PT Indofood holding 90% of shares out at the close of the offer. There is no other condition.
IFAR’s share price has increased 27% this month – evidently, there was some news leakage ahead of the announcement – positioning its discount to NAV at ~50%, around its narrowest inside a year, but on a look-through basis, the Offer price backs out just 0.4x P/B.
The Offer price represents a premium of approximately 21.5%, 26.3%, 29.0% and 23.1% over the VWAP for 1M, 3M, 6M and 12M. IFAR traded above the Offer price as recent as May last year. One wonders if the consideration is sufficient to achieve the 90% condition.
Preceding my comments on Amorepacific, Kingboard and other stubs, are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold – the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent – of at least 20%.
We maintain PLANB with a BUY rating with the target price of Bt8.30 derived from 1.5xPEG’2019E of Thai consumer discretionary sector, which implies to 36xPE’19E.
The story:
Collaboration among the leaders in OOH industry
Revising down EPS in 2019-21E by 9-11% due to dilution effect
Risks: Obstacles for renewing concession contracts with state-owned enterprises along with falling consumer spending and a share-price dilution effect on the back of then generally mandated raise in capital.
Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma
Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.
An attractively valued company with a minimum market cap of USD $1 billion but no sell-side coverage.Doubledragon Properties (DD PM) meets those criteria.
Why Read This Report?
Learn about the Philippines youngest self-made billionaire*, Edgar ‘Injap’ Sia, how he created one of the largest fast-food chains (Mang Inasal) in the country and successfully sold it to Jollibee Foods (JFC PM) for over USD$100 M.
After selling Mang Inasal in 2010, Sia started building DoubleDragon (DD) as he joined hands with Tony Tan (founder of Jollibee Foods (JFC PM) ). DD was listed in 2014 at a market value of USD$85 M (PHP2/share) and reached a market cap of over USD$3 B USD two years after listing (PHP70/share).
DD’s valuation mid-2016 was overhyped and overvalued.
From mid-2016 to late 2018 the share price fell by approximately 75%. Last year the stock bottomed at PHP17.2 despite fundamentals improving drastically between 2016 and 2018.
This has created a unique opportunity to invest in a diversified property company whose main earnings contributor will come from building neighborhood malls in suburban communities outside Metro Manila. It is forecast that 90% of its revenues would be recurring in nature by FY20.
We value DD on a blended a) P/E multiple and b) Cap Rate basis.
DD recently traded around PHP 22/share and is currently valued at 9.5x FY20 P/E, a steep discount to its industry peers. Assuming the company achieves PHP10.8 B in recurring revenues by FY20 the market is currently valuing the company at a 21% Cap Rate vs 7% for its primary peer Sm Prime Holdings (SMPH PM). DD should trade at a discount to SM (long track record, higher liquidity, included in PSE index) but the gap is too wide.
We argue DD should trade at a) 15x P/E and b) 10% cap rate. Combining the two valuation methods we arrive at a blended Fair Value of PHP 40.31/share, or 83% upside from current levels.
Assumptions
Fair Value
15x 2020 P/E
PHP 35
10% Cap Rate
PHP 45.63
BLENDED FAIR VALUE
40.31 PHP
The founders control 70% of the company and expect to grow the current USD$1.2B market cap exponentially the coming 3-5 years. DoubleDragon is a potential multi-bagger in the making.
Catalysts to unlock value at DoubleDragon would be:
FY18 results publication by early April 2019
Delivery of 100 operating CityMalls by FY20
The passing of workable REIT law
Delivery of PHP5.5B FY20 profit target
FCF inflection point coming closer in FY20
Re-discovery by sell-side firms as index inclusion looms
Visibility into FY21-FY25 dividend potential
Footnote: *Injap was reported as having USD$1 B in assets by Forbes in 2017, as the share price of DD has fallen we estimate this has dropped to approximately USD$ 400-500 M, which would still rank him among the top-25 wealthiest individuals in the Philippines.
We believe this presents an excellent opportunity to look at the stock on the short side again.
We would also refer readers to an article from Livedoor news which delves into the company’s issues from a local industry insider’s perspective. The article is in Japanese and the google translated version is almost unintelligible but we summarise the salient points and our perspective below.
Our recent conversation with CyberAgent’s IR team suggests that a significant improvement in the OP margin is unlikely in the next few quarters. The OP margins of both Game business and the Internet Advertisement, while likely to improve gradually, are likely to remain low compared to recent history due to higher advertising and personnel costs.
Upfront investments in AbemaTV are likely to continue until the target of 10m Weekly Average Users (WAU) is met, which could take a year or more. The company expects around 50% of AbemaTV revenue to eventually come from premium users, which seems to be a shift in strategy, from a “free” service towards a more hybrid model.
CyberAgent’s share price closed at ¥4,050 on Tuesday, up 7.1% from its previous close, following the news that the stock was added to the Goldman Sachs’ conviction list with a reiterated buy rating. However, even before this, CyberAgent’s share price had been on a steady increase over the past two weeks (+29.0%), recovering from a one-year low in early February. This increase, despite rather mediocre 1Q results, a downward revision of OP guidance, and lack of any major short term catalysts is an indication that the market deems CyberAgent to be undervalued – mainly on the AbemaTV front.
Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma
Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.
We mentioned in Koito Outperforms in 3Q While Stanley Disappoints; Latter Still on Track to Achieve FY03/19E Target, that Koito Manufacturing (7276 JP) has managed to beat consensus estimates in 3Q after a series of disappointing results in the previous quarters. This was despite the weak nine-month ended results. The company cited the loss in sales from China (as a result of the deconsolidation of the Shanghai unit) alongside unfavourable economic conditions especially in China and Europe as key reasons for the decline in earnings. Our visit to Koito in March, gave us more insight on the effect of its deconsolidated Shanghai unit and its future plans in China, alongside their investment for capacity expansions and new products. Following these insights, we have revised our view on Koito in a slightly positive manner.
Indofood Agri Resources (IFAR SP) has announced PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk, its controlling shareholder with 74.52%, has made a voluntary conditional cash offer of $0.28/share for all IFAR shares it does not own. The offer price, which is a 7.7% premium to last close, is not final. Any dividend declared will reduce the consideration under the proposal.
The Offer is conditional on PT Indofood holding 90% of shares out at the close of the offer. There is no other condition.
IFAR’s share price has increased 27% this month – evidently, there was some news leakage ahead of the announcement – positioning its discount to NAV at ~50%, around its narrowest inside a year, but on a look-through basis, the Offer price backs out just 0.4x P/B.
The Offer price represents a premium of approximately 21.5%, 26.3%, 29.0% and 23.1% over the VWAP for 1M, 3M, 6M and 12M. IFAR traded above the Offer price as recent as May last year. One wonders if the consideration is sufficient to achieve the 90% condition.
Preceding my comments on Amorepacific, Kingboard and other stubs, are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold – the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent – of at least 20%.
We maintain PLANB with a BUY rating with the target price of Bt8.30 derived from 1.5xPEG’2019E of Thai consumer discretionary sector, which implies to 36xPE’19E.
The story:
Collaboration among the leaders in OOH industry
Revising down EPS in 2019-21E by 9-11% due to dilution effect
Risks: Obstacles for renewing concession contracts with state-owned enterprises along with falling consumer spending and a share-price dilution effect on the back of then generally mandated raise in capital.
China Meidong Auto (1268 HK) has been a great success story for its investors in the last two years. I first wrote about the company in May 2017 when shares were trading at 1.53 HKD. This week shares traded over 4.7 HKD. While the share price has gyrated wildly the past 24 months the underlying earnings of the company have been increasing steadily and shareholders have been rewarded with solid dividends.
FY18 results were released last month which showed strong growth in revenues (+44%) and net profits (+31%). With the importance of Lexus and Porsche increasing, FY19 should be another year of growth. The performance of BMW remains a wild card.
With the stock up 59% YTD shares are now fairly valued and trading at a 30% premium to its peers. Meidong remains a long-term favorite but has now exceeded my fair value estimate of 4.4 HKD (10x 2019 EPS). I suggest waiting for a better entry point.
Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma
Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.
We believe this presents an excellent opportunity to look at the stock on the short side again.
We would also refer readers to an article from Livedoor news which delves into the company’s issues from a local industry insider’s perspective. The article is in Japanese and the google translated version is almost unintelligible but we summarise the salient points and our perspective below.
Our recent conversation with CyberAgent’s IR team suggests that a significant improvement in the OP margin is unlikely in the next few quarters. The OP margins of both Game business and the Internet Advertisement, while likely to improve gradually, are likely to remain low compared to recent history due to higher advertising and personnel costs.
Upfront investments in AbemaTV are likely to continue until the target of 10m Weekly Average Users (WAU) is met, which could take a year or more. The company expects around 50% of AbemaTV revenue to eventually come from premium users, which seems to be a shift in strategy, from a “free” service towards a more hybrid model.
CyberAgent’s share price closed at ¥4,050 on Tuesday, up 7.1% from its previous close, following the news that the stock was added to the Goldman Sachs’ conviction list with a reiterated buy rating. However, even before this, CyberAgent’s share price had been on a steady increase over the past two weeks (+29.0%), recovering from a one-year low in early February. This increase, despite rather mediocre 1Q results, a downward revision of OP guidance, and lack of any major short term catalysts is an indication that the market deems CyberAgent to be undervalued – mainly on the AbemaTV front.
Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma
Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.
We believe this presents an excellent opportunity to look at the stock on the short side again.
We would also refer readers to an article from Livedoor news which delves into the company’s issues from a local industry insider’s perspective. The article is in Japanese and the google translated version is almost unintelligible but we summarise the salient points and our perspective below.
Our recent conversation with CyberAgent’s IR team suggests that a significant improvement in the OP margin is unlikely in the next few quarters. The OP margins of both Game business and the Internet Advertisement, while likely to improve gradually, are likely to remain low compared to recent history due to higher advertising and personnel costs.
Upfront investments in AbemaTV are likely to continue until the target of 10m Weekly Average Users (WAU) is met, which could take a year or more. The company expects around 50% of AbemaTV revenue to eventually come from premium users, which seems to be a shift in strategy, from a “free” service towards a more hybrid model.
CyberAgent’s share price closed at ¥4,050 on Tuesday, up 7.1% from its previous close, following the news that the stock was added to the Goldman Sachs’ conviction list with a reiterated buy rating. However, even before this, CyberAgent’s share price had been on a steady increase over the past two weeks (+29.0%), recovering from a one-year low in early February. This increase, despite rather mediocre 1Q results, a downward revision of OP guidance, and lack of any major short term catalysts is an indication that the market deems CyberAgent to be undervalued – mainly on the AbemaTV front.
DAF is a fast growing auto finance company which acquires customers through a network of dealership around China. Its net interest income grew by 66% CAGR from FY2016 to FY2018 while net fees/comms income and profit grew by 39.6% and 61% CAGR over the same period.
However, most of its growth originated from ZhengTong dealers and joint promotion arrangement. Excluding loans from joint promotion arrangement, gross outstanding loan had only grown by 12% CAGR.
In this insight, we will look at the company’s business, analyze the competitive landscape, provide thoughts on valuation, and some questions for management.
Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma
Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.
We believe this presents an excellent opportunity to look at the stock on the short side again.
We would also refer readers to an article from Livedoor news which delves into the company’s issues from a local industry insider’s perspective. The article is in Japanese and the google translated version is almost unintelligible but we summarise the salient points and our perspective below.
Our recent conversation with CyberAgent’s IR team suggests that a significant improvement in the OP margin is unlikely in the next few quarters. The OP margins of both Game business and the Internet Advertisement, while likely to improve gradually, are likely to remain low compared to recent history due to higher advertising and personnel costs.
Upfront investments in AbemaTV are likely to continue until the target of 10m Weekly Average Users (WAU) is met, which could take a year or more. The company expects around 50% of AbemaTV revenue to eventually come from premium users, which seems to be a shift in strategy, from a “free” service towards a more hybrid model.
CyberAgent’s share price closed at ¥4,050 on Tuesday, up 7.1% from its previous close, following the news that the stock was added to the Goldman Sachs’ conviction list with a reiterated buy rating. However, even before this, CyberAgent’s share price had been on a steady increase over the past two weeks (+29.0%), recovering from a one-year low in early February. This increase, despite rather mediocre 1Q results, a downward revision of OP guidance, and lack of any major short term catalysts is an indication that the market deems CyberAgent to be undervalued – mainly on the AbemaTV front.
DAF is a fast growing auto finance company which acquires customers through a network of dealership around China. Its net interest income grew by 66% CAGR from FY2016 to FY2018 while net fees/comms income and profit grew by 39.6% and 61% CAGR over the same period.
However, most of its growth originated from ZhengTong dealers and joint promotion arrangement. Excluding loans from joint promotion arrangement, gross outstanding loan had only grown by 12% CAGR.
In this insight, we will look at the company’s business, analyze the competitive landscape, provide thoughts on valuation, and some questions for management.
In this insight, I’ll run the deal through our framework and comment on valuations.
Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma
Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.
