Category

Consumer

Daily Brief Consumer: JD.com , Pop Mart International Group L, GS Retail, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery, Carnival Corp, Betterware de Mexico Sab de CV, OPAP SA and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (June 2024)
  • Pop Mart (9992 HK):  Accelerating Momentum Internationally; Raising My Estimates
  • GS Retail: Equity Spin Off of Parnas Hotel and Freshmeat Subsidiaries
  • Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): What if Special Dividends Are Declared?
  • Carnival Corporation &Amp; Plc (CCL) – Tuesday, Mar 5, 2024
  • BWMX: Snapping the Catalog: Tough Comps Not an Issue; Reiterate Buy, $22.50 PT
  • OPAP – Steady progress towards FY24 guidance


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (June 2024)

By Brian Freitas


Pop Mart (9992 HK):  Accelerating Momentum Internationally; Raising My Estimates

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • In 1Q24, Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK)‘s international sales grew around 250% yoy, and made up around one quarter of sales (vs. 17% of sales in 2023). 
  • I now expect 39% sales growth in 2024, driven by 140% yoy growth in the international business and 18% growth in domestic China business. 
  • I further expect a 50% yoy growth in net profit growth in 2024 driven by a 0.8ppt increase in gross margin and 0.5ppt in operating leverage. 

GS Retail: Equity Spin Off of Parnas Hotel and Freshmeat Subsidiaries

By Douglas Kim

  • On 3 June, GS Retail (007070 KS) announced that it will spin off Parnas Hotel and Freshmeat subsidiaries to simplify its business structure and enhance shareholder value.
  • The company plans to create a new entity tentatively called Parnas Holdings which will include Parnas hotel and Freshmeat (a meat processing company). 
  • We have a positive view of GS Retail’s decision to conduct this equity spin off which simplifies the business structures and it could raise the valuation multiples of GS Retail. 

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): What if Special Dividends Are Declared?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The market’s assumption of no special dividends in Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)‘s upcoming FY24 result is conservative, and this does not fit into its usual pattern. 
  • Should it pay special DPS, the dividend yield may reach an attractive 10.7%. With its net cash position, CTF can financially maintain the average 135.6% payout ratio. 
  • A return to its historical average dividend yield of 7.4% means that CTF’s share price will need to go up by 45% from the current level.

Carnival Corporation &Amp; Plc (CCL) – Tuesday, Mar 5, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Carnival Corporation is the world’s largest cruise ship operator with a large fleet and significant market share
  • The company was severely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, halting service for 15 months and taking on substantial debt
  • Since resuming cruises in July 2021, Carnival has seen a rebound in revenues driven by strong demand for post-COVID travel, but still faces challenges with cashflow and debt sustainability

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


BWMX: Snapping the Catalog: Tough Comps Not an Issue; Reiterate Buy, $22.50 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $22.50 price target and projections for Betterware de Mexico after reviewing the June catalog.
  • Despite the return of normalized comparisons, as supply chain issues began to normalize last year, June was another solid month for Betterware, as the catalog registered further SKU growth, continued higher levels of newness, and lower discounting.
  • Further, these results were achieved despite the company pulling back from prior categories (Better Kids and Pets), making the YoY gains even more impressive.

OPAP – Steady progress towards FY24 guidance

By Edison Investment Research

OPAP delivered good revenue growth in Q124 while profitability declined, mainly due to the upfront investment to support a major new product launch, which should boost revenue as the year progresses and provide better leverage on the higher cost base. The broad message is of strong online growth with resilience in its land-based activities, which gives management confidence to reiterate its guidance for the year.


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Daily Brief Consumer: Webtoon Entertainment, Nagatanien Holdings, Alibaba Group Holding , Trip.com, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Golf Digest Online, Garrett Motion and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Webtoon Entertainment IPO Preview
  • Nagatanien Holdings (2899 JP): Marunouchi Capital-Sponsored MBO at JPY3,100
  • Another Day Ending in Y, Another MBO Done Too Cheap. Today? Nagatanien (2899 JP).
  • China Consumption Weekly (3 Jun 2024): Alibaba, Alibaba Pictures, Li Auto, JD.com, JD Health
  • Trip.com Q124 Review: Solid Top-Line Growth | Progress on Margins | BUY Below US$50
  • Only Seriousness of Shareholder Return Can Judge Change in Management in 1 Year After TSE’s Request
  • Golf Digest Online (3319 JP) – 1Q FY24/12 Profits Down YoY Is Temporary
  • GTX: Ice Unfrozen


Webtoon Entertainment IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Webtoon Entertainment is getting ready to complete its IPO on the NASDAQ exchange in 2H 2024. Webtoon Entertainment is a subsidiary of Naver Corp (035420 KS).
  • Webtoon is seeking to raise as much of US$500 million at a valuation of US$3 billion to US$4 billion.
  • Webtoon Entertainment is one of the largest Korean company related IPOs in 2024. 

Nagatanien Holdings (2899 JP): Marunouchi Capital-Sponsored MBO at JPY3,100

By Arun George

  • Nagatanien Holdings (2899 JP) recommended a Marunouchi Capital-sponsored MBO at JPY3,100, a 38.4% premium to the undisturbed price. 
  • The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The offer period is from 4 June to 16 July.
  • While not a knockout bid, the offer represents a five-year high and requires a 58% minority acceptance rate. This is a done deal with payment commencing from 23 July.  

Another Day Ending in Y, Another MBO Done Too Cheap. Today? Nagatanien (2899 JP).

By Travis Lundy

  • MitCorp – the largest shareholder – and the Nagatani family – today announced an MBO where they will buy a classic ubiquitous brand at an Adjusted EV of 5.4x EBITDA.
  • The equity check appears to buy at ~2.5x Mar27-29 average FCF but they probably have 50% of the shares in the bag. Retail, or who they sell to, matter.
  • There is room for a noisy activist to get involved here and disrupt the retail ownership. But there are very few of those around. And none in it now.

China Consumption Weekly (3 Jun 2024): Alibaba, Alibaba Pictures, Li Auto, JD.com, JD Health

By Ming Lu

  • Alibaba Pictures’ revenue increased by 44% YoY and EBTIDA increased by 61% in the March quarter.
  • Cainiao, Alibaba’s logistics network, plans to purchase fresh food from the places of origin.
  • Li Auto finished a round of layoff, in which headcount was reduced to 22,000 from 30,000.

Trip.com Q124 Review: Solid Top-Line Growth | Progress on Margins | BUY Below US$50

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Q124 showed solid top-line growth, impressive improvement in core margins
  • We are not too concerned about moderating domestic hotel, air pricing
  • After consensus EPS raised, TCOM a BUY below US$50 per ADS, in our view

Only Seriousness of Shareholder Return Can Judge Change in Management in 1 Year After TSE’s Request

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Since companies with higher foreign ownership have better profitability and corporate governance practices, it can be inferred that the overseas investor engagement has improved the company’s profitability and corporate governance.
  • If the company’s management has changed to value-creating management through the overseas investor’s engagement, the company isn’t expected to change to value-creating management in just one year after “TSE’s request”.
  • Many companies that do not receive overseas investor engagement have more room for improvement in aspects of management strategy execution and will be evaluated over time for improvements in profitability.

Golf Digest Online (3319 JP) – 1Q FY24/12 Profits Down YoY Is Temporary

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Numerical targets for FY24/12 initial guidance are shown in the exhibit below.
  • Despite initial guidance for consolidated OP of ¥800mn, an increase of ¥420mn (+110.3% YoY), the Company cites conservatively forecasting non-operating and extraordinary items such as interest expenses, restructuring costs, and exchange rate fluctuations for initial guidance for ordinary profit break-even and a net loss of (¥600mn) for profit attributable to owners of parent (see P2).
  • Key initiatives and expectations for 2024 include: 1) in Japan, aim to provide more data-oriented and efficient services (online golf equipment sales GPM improving after 4Q inventory adjustment), 2) GOLFTEC golf lesson cash sales set to improve on coach issue addressed and marketing campaigns such as “7 shots better,” and 3) expand SkyTrak sales distribution channels. 

GTX: Ice Unfrozen

By Hamed Khorsand

  • In the month since GTX reported first quarter results, there have been more industry news pointing towards automobile models benefiting GTX. 
  • Automakers are indicating to using ICE and hybrid for longer than expected, which should contribute to GTX’s ability to generate free cash flow beyond the next couple of years.
  • We continue to expect 2024 sales to skew to the second half of the year, but GTX should generate adequate free cash flow to repurchase shares and reduce debt. 

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Daily Brief Consumer: Star Entertainment Group, SHEIN, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Deckers Outdoor, Aisin , Vf Corp, Ralph Lauren, elf Beauty Inc, Target Corp, BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tax-Loss Selling in Australia 2024 – The May Basket (April Basket +2.3 to +6.3% Rtn)
  • SHEIN: Several US Customs Broker Suspensions Tied to Tighter ‘de Minimis’ Rules
  • Engagement Keeps Widening the Profitability Gap Between the Top and Bottom Companies in Market Cap
  • Deckers Outdoor Corporation: These Are The 5 Fundamental Factors Driving Its Performance! – Financial Forecasts
  • Aisin – 141% Profit Growth, With Future to Have More Sales for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles
  • V.F. Corporation: Expansion of Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Channel & Other Major Drivers
  • Ralph Lauren Corporation: Will Its Focus on Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Channel Growth Especially In Asia Pay Off? – Major Drivers
  • e.l.f. Beauty Inc.: Will The Strong Growth in Sales and Market Share Last? – Major Drivers
  • Target Corporation: How Is The Continuing Growth In Private Labels Expected To Impact The Top-Line? – Major Drivers
  • BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings: Expanding Locations & Membership Base & Other Major Drivers


Tax-Loss Selling in Australia 2024 – The May Basket (April Basket +2.3 to +6.3% Rtn)

By Travis Lundy

  • I am not a tax advisor and I do not play one on TV but it is a subject of interest in Australia, as an AFR article from June 2022 shows.
  • The general gist: retail investors in Australia will take gains on stocks which run up in price, or get taken over, then look for losses to offset.
  • The portfolio worked well in April. Now we let April ride and add the May basket.

SHEIN: Several US Customs Broker Suspensions Tied to Tighter ‘de Minimis’ Rules

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Several US customs brokers have been suspended under new, tighter rules
  • The new rules could make ‘de minimis’ imports slightly more difficult
  • Whether it lists in London or NYC, additional rule changes could threaten SHEIN

Engagement Keeps Widening the Profitability Gap Between the Top and Bottom Companies in Market Cap

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Companies with larger market capitalizations tend to have higher profitability and valuations, and those companies have higher foreign ownership.
  • Given that board practices improved and that valuations, highly correlated with foreign ownership, are higher for companies with larger market capitalizations, this can be due to engagement of overseas investors.
  • If this hypothesis is correct, the gap between the top and bottom market capitalization companies will widen further as it takes a certain time for engagement to pay off.

Deckers Outdoor Corporation: These Are The 5 Fundamental Factors Driving Its Performance! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • In the fourth quarter fiscal of 2024, Deckers Brands achieved record revenue growth of 18% compared to the previous year, almost reaching $4.3 billion of annual revenue.
  • Gross margin increased by a considerable 530 basis points from last year to 55.6%, and earnings per share rose by 51% to $29.16.
  • These results reflect Deckers’ successful long-term strategies and the hard work of its employees.

Aisin – 141% Profit Growth, With Future to Have More Sales for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Aisin is already achieving strong growth, across many markets, and this should continue with more sales into EV and HEV markets
  • Financial strength is improving, with gearing moving lower, and debt/ebitda moving lower
  • Balance sheet clean up can lead to some volatility, but overall a general positive, as is the focus on capital management

V.F. Corporation: Expansion of Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Channel & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • From the Q4 2024 Earnings of VF Corporation, it can be inferred that the company is working on a transformation strategy named Reinvent to return to long-term growth.
  • The company seems to be undergoing significant changes both structurally and operationally.
  • Reinvent’s primary focus is on restructuring the U.S. business, cost base adjustment, and balance sheet enhancement.

Ralph Lauren Corporation: Will Its Focus on Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Channel Growth Especially In Asia Pay Off? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Based on the recent earnings, Ralph Lauren Corporation demonstrated credible fiscal performance despite the ongoing uncertainties of the global business climate.
  • The company remained resilient with the successful execution of its Next Great Chapter Accelerate plan.
  • On a positive note, President and CEO, Patrice Louvet, highlighted the progress made on several fronts.

e.l.f. Beauty Inc.: Will The Strong Growth in Sales and Market Share Last? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • e.l.f. Beauty reported a solid 2024 fiscal fourth quarter, hitting a significant milestone of over $1 billion in net sales.
  • The company grew net sales by 77%, exceeding expectations.
  • Q4 marked the 21st consecutive quarter of both net sales growth and market share gains.

Target Corporation: How Is The Continuing Growth In Private Labels Expected To Impact The Top-Line? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Target Corporation reported its Q1 2024 financial results that were largely in line with its own expectations, while outlining various strategies and initiatives aimed at bolstering growth and profitability.
  • Despite the challenging economic environment and volatility in consumer spending patterns, Target remains resilient, with its profitability continuing to benefit from prudent cost management and ongoing investments in strategic growth initiatives.
  • However, softer trends in discretionary categories, particularly Home and Hardlines, may continue to pressure sales in the near term.

BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings: Expanding Locations & Membership Base & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc., an American wholesale club chain reported its first-quarter earnings for fiscal 2024.
  • The results from the call were mixed, with continued strong growth in membership fees and market share, supported by robust traffic and unit growth.
  • However, the team cautioned that the first quarter’s robust projections could be challenging given the previous year’s inflation dynamics.

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Daily Brief Consumer: MINISO Group Holding and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 31 May 2024); Private Tech, Energy/Financial SOEs See BIG Net Buys


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 31 May 2024); Private Tech, Energy/Financial SOEs See BIG Net Buys

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer for HK$29.7bn on small two-way volumes. Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK) dropped to #4 this week but SOE buying dominated.
  • It is not clear how much of this is H/A discounts, expected dividend tax removal, and the KPIs for SOE CEOs to raise prices and payout ratios, but it continues.
  • Valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows – national team and otherwise.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Mitsubishi Motors, Bloks Group, PDD Holdings, Modine Manufacturing Co, Guess? Inc, Dixon Technologies India Ltd, Urban Outfitters, Global-e Online , Lowe’s Companies Inc, Skyline Champion and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: End-May 2024 Estimates
  • Bloks Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • PDD Holdings: Will The Focus On Agricultural Strategy Convert Into Positive Revenue Growth? – Major Drivers
  • Modine Manufacturing Company: Will The Recovery in Heating
  • GES: 1Q Review; Creating a Powerful Model; Reiterate Buy, $37 PT
  • Dixon Technologies- Forensic Analysis (Update)
  • Urban Outfitters: Impact Of New Facility On Their Logistics & Profitability & Other Major Drivers
  • Global-e Online Ltd.: Expanding Merchant Base and Launch Plans! – Major Drivers
  • Lowe’s Companies: Front-End Transformation and Investment in Technology! – Major Drivers
  • Skyline Champion Corporation: Can The Acquisition of Regional Homes Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers


Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: End-May 2024 Estimates

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.
  • A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the rankings of the potential ADDs/DELs every month.
  • In this insight, we take a look at potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 index rebal event to come in August 2024 based on trading data as of end-May 2024.

Bloks Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Bloks Group (1850960D CH) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are Goldman Sachs, and Huatai International.
  • Bloks Groups (Bloks) operates in the toy segment where it primarily assembles character toys. Its portfolio contains both self-developed and renowned licensed intellectual property (IPs).
  • According to F&S, Bloks was China’s largest player in the assembly character toy segment with an approximate gross merchandise value (GMV) of RMB1.8bn in 2023.

PDD Holdings: Will The Focus On Agricultural Strategy Convert Into Positive Revenue Growth? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • PDD Holdings Inc., an innovative online retail company based in China, seems to show a strong future trajectory based on its first quarter 2024 earnings conference call.
  • The company surpassed its year-on-year growth with total revenue reaching RMB 86.8 billion, marking a 131% increase.
  • This impressive growth serves as a testament to PDD Holdings’s efforts to deepen its access and widely influence the consumer market.

Modine Manufacturing Company: Will The Recovery in Heating

By Baptista Research

  • Modine Manufacturing Company (Modine) reported upbeat performance for its fiscal 2024 with record sales and adjusted EBITDA being noted for the second consecutive year.
  • Sales increased by 5% to reach $2.4 billion while adjusted EBITDA surged by 48% to $314 million; a significant margin improvement indicating the company’s effective commitment to its 80/20 principle.
  • Modine successfully shifted its business to targeted markets with growth potential where its innovative solutions are well-regarded, leading to sustainable margins.

GES: 1Q Review; Creating a Powerful Model; Reiterate Buy, $37 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating and $37 price target for Guess?
  • and tweaking and further back-end loading our FY25 and FY26 projections after Guess?
  • announced 1QFY25 top and bottom line upside, driven by Europe and Domestic wholesale results, as the rag & bone acquisition proved to be a key positive and the company continues to take share in Europe.

Dixon Technologies- Forensic Analysis (Update)

By Nitin Mangal

  • Dixon Technologies India Ltd (DIXON IN) growth is driven by mobile and EMS segment; majority of other businesses are muted in the last two years.  
  • The company is able to convert earnings to cash quickly but cash yield is close to zero.
  • The company has reported significant amount of refund liability, but is silent on its accounting policy. Other forensics takeaways include non-reconciliation of asset disposals, high forex risk, etc.

Urban Outfitters: Impact Of New Facility On Their Logistics & Profitability & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Urban Outfitters, Inc. had an exceptional first quarter for fiscal 2025, performing better than expected with four out of five brands posting record revenues leading to an overall revenue of $1.2 billion.
  • Anthropologie, Free People, FP Movement, and Nuuly all experienced double-digit growth, with record operating incomes reported for 3 of their brands.
  • These strong results, however, were somewhat tempered by continuous weak performance at the Urban Outfitters brand.

Global-e Online Ltd.: Expanding Merchant Base and Launch Plans! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In the Q1 2024 earnings, Global-E Online Ltd reaffirmed its strong growth trajectory and bullish outlook for the rest of the year.
  • For Q1, the company reported growth in gross merchandise volume (GMV), revenues, and adjusted EBITDA, surpassing the forecasted range for the quarter.
  • GMV grew 32% YoY, revenues grew 24%, and adjusted EBITDA grew 47%.

Lowe’s Companies: Front-End Transformation and Investment in Technology! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Lowe’s Companies reported its recent earnings and maintained the company’s expectations for fiscal 2024.
  • Their first quarter sales were $21.4 billion, with comparable sales down 4.1% from the same period last year.
  • Despite the continued pressure in DIY big ticket discretionary spending, the company delivered better-than-expected spring seasonal sales.

Skyline Champion Corporation: Can The Acquisition of Regional Homes Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In Fiscal 2024, Skyline Champion Corporation prioritized investments to offer integrated turnkey solutions for retail, financial services, and home completion.
  • They experienced some decrease year over-year in their unit volume.
  • However, the company reported over $2 billion in top-line revenue, indicating a solid financial year nonetheless.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Exedy Corp, Zomato, Shinsegae, Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt, I-TAIL , Ace Hardware Indonesia, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, RCI Hospitality Holdings, Rakuten, Pointerra Ltd and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Exedy (7278) Huge Offering Resized – Watch the Dynamics Here
  • Zomato Placement Lockup Expiry – US$800m Overhang
  • Legal Complications on Put Options on SSG.Com to Result in Ongoing Concerns for Emart and Shinsegae
  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Solidifying Growth Prospects
  • SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: 4 Changes as Review Period Ends Today
  • Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) – Brighter Ambience Ahead
  • Why Are Companies with High Corporate Governance Practices Ratings More Profitable?
  • Rci Hospitality Hldgs Inc (RICK) – Thursday, Feb 29, 2024
  • Morning Views Asia: Fosun International, Lenovo, Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust, NTPC Ltd, Rakuten
  • Pointerra Ltd – Capital raise shores up balance sheet


Exedy (7278) Huge Offering Resized – Watch the Dynamics Here

By Travis Lundy

  • On Monday 27 May, Aisin (7259 JP) announced an offering to sell ALL of its 36+% stake in equity affiliate Exedy Corp (7278 JP) for likely ¥40bn+. 
  • Exedy announced a big buyback to go with it. It bought back 30% of the total on Weds morning, and that reduced the size of the offer. 
  • I had expected “short-term games” but we haven’t really had them. Which is a bit weird. This update shows the details and dynamics (they differ).

Zomato Placement Lockup Expiry – US$800m Overhang

By Sumeet Singh

  • Antfin will come out of its placement linked lockup for its remaining stake in Zomato soon.
  • Ant Group had earlier sold some of its stake in Nov 2023 and Mar 2024. It still has over US$800m worth of shares left to sell.
  • In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Legal Complications on Put Options on SSG.Com to Result in Ongoing Concerns for Emart and Shinsegae

By Douglas Kim

  • Emart and Shinsegae are facing concerns about put options of nearly 1 trillion won on private equity investors’ investment in SSG.com nearly six years ago. 
  • From AEP and BRV’s point of views, they want to get their money back through put options since an IPO is not likely in the near term.
  • The most probable result appears to be that this is likely to be dragged on for some time, which will cause continued concerns on both Emart and Shinsegae. 

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Solidifying Growth Prospects

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (Alfamart) booked a solid set of 1Q2024 results, a testament to its resilience during an election period, with the seasonal impact of Lebaran. 
  • Minimarkets continue to be the winning format in Indonesia and Alfamart continued to gain share during 1Q2024, neck and neck with Salim-backed Indomaret if you include Alfamidi, Lawson, and Dan+Dan. 
  • Alfamart will slow store openings to 1,300 stores this year after adding more than 1,800 outlets in 2023, with growth prospects remaining positive and profitability intact with a 25% ROE. 

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: 4 Changes as Review Period Ends Today

By Brian Freitas

  • With one day left in the review period, we see 4 potential changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the June rebalance.
  • Berli Jucker (BJC TB) could be added to the index following the market consultation that lowered the inclusion thresholds for Average Daily Trading Values and Turnover ratios.
  • An equally weighted basket of potential adds has outperformed the potential deletes but there has been a deterioration in performance over the last month.

Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) – Brighter Ambience Ahead

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) continues to impress both in terms of SSSG and profitability, with numerous initiatives to drive future growth including more regular promotional campaigns and upgraded formats.
  • SSSG for 5M2024 is well ahead of full-year guidance with strong growth momentum driven by ongoing campaigns, brighter new concept formats, and successful omnichannel initiatives providing additional growth impetus. 
  • Ace Hardware Indonesia remains a top pick amongst Indonesian retailers, with valuations well below historical levels, despite the resurgence of growth and numerous initiatives in place both online and offline. 

Why Are Companies with High Corporate Governance Practices Ratings More Profitable?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Companies with higher ratings for Corporate Governance Practices (Board Practices and Key Actions) tend to have significantly higher profitability, market capitalization and valuations.
  • Foreign ownership has the highest correlation with the Metrical CG score, suggesting that years of overseas investor engagement have improved the companies’ corporate governance practices and profitability.
  • The pace of efforts varies with criteria of Corporate Governance Practices.  Companies with Metrical CG scores of over 70% are ahead in % independent directors and % female board members.

Rci Hospitality Hldgs Inc (RICK) – Thursday, Feb 29, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • RICK is the largest strip club operator that also owns the struggling restaurant chain, Bombshells
  • Strip clubs in RICK’s targeted locations are generally profitable due to limited competition and high barriers to entry
  • Tootsie’s, a club owned by RICK, experienced significant revenue and EBITDA growth since its acquisition in 2007, showcasing the company’s ability to generate attractive returns on acquisitions in the strip club industry

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Morning Views Asia: Fosun International, Lenovo, Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust, NTPC Ltd, Rakuten

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Pointerra Ltd – Capital raise shores up balance sheet

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS Research Group has published an update report on 3D spatial data solutions group Pointerra (ASX:3DP) following its share placement to raise $2.05m before costs at $0.033/share.
  • We had previously factored in a $2.5m raise into our forecasts in H1 FY25 and have now adjusted our model to include the recent raise in our forecasts.
  • Based on our estimates, we don’t expect Pointerra to return to the market for additional equity before it reaches EBITDA break-even (H1 FY25 in our estimates).

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Daily Brief Consumer: Techtronic Industries, Trip.com, Cisarua Mountain Dairy, Tong Yang Industry, Mokingran Jewellery Group, Sadot Group , Lands’ End Inc and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HK CEO & Director Dealings (29 May 2024): J&T Global, Melco, Techtronic, Gushengtang, United Energy
  • Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Grinds Forward | Domestic Weakness Not New | (May 2024)
  • Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) – Stick Yoghurt Going Viral
  • Tong Yang Industry – Record Profit With Improving Financial Position
  • Pre-IPO Mokingran Jewellery Group – Disappointing Profit Margin and Potential Risk in Business Model
  • SDOT: Sadot Group reports 1st quarter 2024 financial and operating results and updates investor community on the Sadot Agri-Foods business outlook.
  • LE: 1Q Preview; Margin Driven Model Upside On Track; Reiterate Buy, $14 PT


HK CEO & Director Dealings (29 May 2024): J&T Global, Melco, Techtronic, Gushengtang, United Energy

By David Blennerhassett


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Grinds Forward | Domestic Weakness Not New | (May 2024)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Chinese outbound travel demand continued its gradual recovery in April 
  • Moderating domestic demand? It’s not new, and outbound matters more 
  • On a pullback to below US$50, we would again BUY Trip.com’s ADRs

Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) – Stick Yoghurt Going Viral

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Cisarua Mountain Dairy booked a strong set of 1Q2024 results, with sequential quarterly growth in revenues and more so profits as margins recovered driven by both dairy and consumer foods. 
  • The company ramped up its advertising, promotion, and marketing spending as it launched new products in the more affordable segments including new flavours for stick yoghurts and affordable consumer foods.
  • Cimory remains optimistic for 2024 for a more pronounced recovery in dairy as it pushes out products into general trade and takes more shelf space in modern trade driving growth.

Tong Yang Industry – Record Profit With Improving Financial Position

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Tong Yang Industry is now seeing record profit in FY23 and this appears to be in place to continue during FY24
  • The automobile and motorcycle parts manufacturing company is seeing strong growth in the US market
  • Electric vehicle parts R&D is well underway and this should support continued growth in coming years

Pre-IPO Mokingran Jewellery Group – Disappointing Profit Margin and Potential Risk in Business Model

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • MOKINGRAN’s revenue fluctuated in the past three years. Profit margin was much lower than that of peers/industry average, which may not necessarily have big improvement even with upward gold price.
  • MOKINGRAN once applied for IPO in A-share but failed. The concerns of SZSE included “unusual” gold trade-in business, large inventory balance and the risk of “false increase” in profits/revenues.
  • The gold boom should not mask the risks of MOKINGRAN. Even if MOKINGRAN successfully goes public, it still faces many challenges. Valuation of MOKINGRAN should be lower than peers. 

SDOT: Sadot Group reports 1st quarter 2024 financial and operating results and updates investor community on the Sadot Agri-Foods business outlook.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • In late 2022, the company began its evolution from a consumer-focused, U.S. restaurant business into a global, food-focused organization with two distinct business units.
  • The company’s largest operating unit is Sadot Agri-Foods, which is a vertically integrated international food supply chain company engaged in trading and shipping sustainable food and commodities such as soybeans, wheat and corn.
  • Sadot’s legacy restaurant business is currently in the process of being divested.

LE: 1Q Preview; Margin Driven Model Upside On Track; Reiterate Buy, $14 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and price target for Lands’ End with the company announcing 1QFY24 (April) results before the open on Wednesday.
  • We believe 1Q was another key step forward in terms of driving newness, reducing discounting and shifting the model to a focus on higher overall returns, with key categories (footwear) beginning to shift to the licensed model and international continuing to slowly turn.
  • That said, with 1Q anniversarying the closing of the Delta contract, comparisons will be skewed.

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Daily Brief Consumer: TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Rize , Virtuoso Optoelectronics, Watches of Switzerland, Deliveroo, Guess? Inc and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Increasing Profitability to Gain Support from Overseas Investors Is a Condition for Higher Valuation
  • Temasek co-leads $14m round of SG agritech firm Rize
  • Virtuoso Optoelectronics Ltd- Forensic Analysis
  • Watches Of Switzerland (WOSG LN) – Tuesday, Feb 27, 2024
  • Deliveroo (ROO) – Tuesday, Feb 27, 2024
  • GES: 1Q Preview: Building for the Future: Reiterate Buy, $37 PT


Increasing Profitability to Gain Support from Overseas Investors Is a Condition for Higher Valuation

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Even after the TSE’s request for a P/B increase, it is not possible to raise valuations simply on the expectation of a P/B increase without improving profitability.
  • Most companies have cash allocation challenges. Companies with higher profitability will accumulate even more cash on hand, so higher level of shareholder return will further positively impact ROE and ROA.
  • Some of the companies that have reduced valuations include those with relatively high ROE and ROA, so there are small-cap stocks with reduced valuations and increased investment opportunities.

Temasek co-leads $14m round of SG agritech firm Rize

By Tech in Asia

  • Rize, a Singapore-based agritech startup, has secured US$14 million in a series A funding round co-led by Breakthrough Energy Ventures, GenZero, Temasek, and Wavemaker Impact.
  • The company plans to use the funds to boost its presence in other markets like Indonesia and Vietnam.
  • It also aims to increase its team of agronomy experts to over 100. Rize’s platform gathers key agricultural information needed for sustainable farming.

Virtuoso Optoelectronics Ltd- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Virtuoso Optoelectronics (VOEPL IN)  is a contract manufacturer company engaged into production of ACs, Lightings and other equipments. The company is renowned for supplying ACs to Voltas.
  • The company has grown sharply over the last five years and has been engaging in constant capex. However, it does struggle in converting its earnings to cash.
  • Among the forensic checks, it nets off receivables and payables/advances, the exact nature of these line items cannot be commented upon. VOEPL also faces high cost of borrowings

Watches Of Switzerland (WOSG LN) – Tuesday, Feb 27, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • WOS is a luxury watch and fine jewelry retailer, with a focus on selling Rolex and other luxury brands
  • Despite strong financial performance and earnings growth, the company’s stock price has dropped significantly
  • Market misunderstanding of the impact of Rolex’s acquisition of Bucherer has led to WOS being undervalued, presenting a buying opportunity for investors.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Deliveroo (ROO) – Tuesday, Feb 27, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Deliveroo has seen a 30% increase in its stock since last year, making it a compelling investment opportunity
  • The company’s focus on independent restaurants results in higher average order values and better unit economics
  • Deliveroo is well-positioned to achieve its 2026 targets, with potential M&A and index inclusion catalysts in the near future

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


GES: 1Q Preview: Building for the Future: Reiterate Buy, $37 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $37 price target and projections for Guess?
  • with the company announcing 1QFY25 (April) results after the close on Thursday.
  • We believe 1Q, which included material upgrades in the domestic retail store base, the acquisition of contemporary leader rag & bone, continued European expansion and what we believe were cautious buys from the domestic wholesale segment, will set the stage for a strong back-half and FY26, but will result, beyond further share repurchases, in limited top and bottom line upside for 1Q.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Exedy Corp, S.M.Entertainment Co, Alibaba Group Holding , Best World International, APR, JD.com , Amuse Inc, Allies Group , Starts Corp Inc and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Cash-Rich Exedy (7278) Sees Huge Offering Offset by Huge Buyback – Watch For Short-Term Games
  • HYBE: Block Deal Sale of SM Entertainment
  • Alibaba/JD.com:  Thoughts On The Recent Convertible Bond Issuance
  • Exedy Corporation Placement – Relatively Large One, Although Buyback Should Aid Share Price
  • Best World (BEST SP): Best & Final Offer
  • An Early Look at Potential Deletions and Additions to KOSPI200 in December 2024
  • JD.com Inc.: How Are They Strengthening the Platform Ecosystem & Continuing Their Market Dominance? – Major Drivers
  • Amuse Inc (4301) – Monday, Feb 26, 2024
  • EBITA-profitable Allies of Skin raises $20m for US expansion
  • Starts Corporation Inc (8850) – Monday, Feb 26, 2024


Cash-Rich Exedy (7278) Sees Huge Offering Offset by Huge Buyback – Watch For Short-Term Games

By Travis Lundy

  • Toyota equity affiliate Aisin (7259 JP) last September said it would sell all its crossholdings. That now includes a 36.5% stake in Exedy Corp (7278 JP)
  • Today, they announced an offering of all the shares (when including the greenshoe). That is nearly ¥50bn. That is offset by a ¥15bn buyback which could reduce the offering size.
  • Games may be played, but there is considerable accretion, and Exedy will see higher float and still-high net cash.

HYBE: Block Deal Sale of SM Entertainment

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 27 May, HYBE (352820 KS) announced that it will conduct a block deal sale of 0.75 million to 0.94 million shares of SM Entertainment.
  • The block deal sale price discount is 4% to 5.5% discount to the closing price on 27 May (95,800 won). 
  • One of the major positive, recent issues facing the Korean K-Pop related stocks has been the potential easing of Korean content restrictions by China.

Alibaba/JD.com:  Thoughts On The Recent Convertible Bond Issuance

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) and JD.com (9618 HK) both announced the issuance of convertible debt last week (Alibaba on May 23 and JD.com on May 21). 
  • Both have mentioned that the reasons for the issuance are the low funding cost (0.25% coupon for JD.com and 0.5% for Alibaba) and to fund their current share repurchase program. 
  • I think the convertible debt structures makes sense and it is beneficial for both companies to buy back as much as possible at the current share price.

Exedy Corporation Placement – Relatively Large One, Although Buyback Should Aid Share Price

By Clarence Chu

  • Aisin (7259 JP) is looking to raise US$290m from selling its entire stake in Exedy Corp (7278 JP).
  • While the selldown doesn’t seem to be particularly well-flagged, this appears to be another cross-shareholder unwind in Japan.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Best World (BEST SP): Best & Final Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • The $2.50/share Exit Offer announced last month seemed fair. Not great, but okay. Best World International (BEST SP)‘s founders Dora Hoan and Doreen Tan have now blinked, and bumped. 
  • Terms are S$2.56/share – best & final.  The increase in the Exit Offer price followed “a review of its most recent financial and cash position“. More likely, shareholder pushback.
  • Elsewhere, nephews and siblings of Hoan, bought shares just prior to the initial Offer announcement; and have been selling since. Not a great look. 

An Early Look at Potential Deletions and Additions to KOSPI200 in December 2024

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide an early look at the potential additions and deletions to KOSPI200 rebalance in December 2024.
  • The seven potential additions are up on average 53.9% from end of 2023. The seven potential deletion candidates are down on average 14.2% YTD. 
  • The average market cap of the seven potential additions is 2.2 trillion won. The average market cap of the seven potential deletion candidates is 0.7 trillion won. 

JD.com Inc.: How Are They Strengthening the Platform Ecosystem & Continuing Their Market Dominance? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • JD.com, a China-based multinational technology conglomerate, has announced its first-quarter results for 2024 in an earnings call and reported robust profit and revenue growth, along with an encouragingly high Net Promoter Score (NPS).
  • The revenue growth was accelerated by strong execution amidst evolving industry dynamics, improved user experience, price competitiveness, and platform ecosystems.
  • Importantly, the general merchandise and supermarket category recorded a notable jump in terms of gross merchandise value (GMV) and revenue growth.

Amuse Inc (4301) – Monday, Feb 26, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • The music industry in the west focuses on speculative assets and bundling services, while in Japan firms have 360-degree deals with artists.
  • Amuse, a major player in the Japanese music industry, historically managed the successful band Southern All Stars but has diversified beyond them.
  • Despite still having concentration in top acts like Masaharu Fukuyama, Amuse’s business model and intrinsic value are seen as attractive to investors.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


EBITA-profitable Allies of Skin raises $20m for US expansion

By Tech in Asia

  • Singapore-based beauty brand Allies of Skin is set to expand into the US after raising a US$20 million funding round from Meaningful Partners.
  • This follows the company hitting positive EBITA in 2023, its founder Nicolas Travis told Tech in Asia.
  • Allies of Skin, founded in 2016, said the round is its first institutional raise, but it has received private investments in the past – including capital from Crazy Rich Asians star Henry Golding.

Starts Corporation Inc (8850) – Monday, Feb 26, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Starts is a high-quality business operating primarily in asset-light CRE services
  • The company has the potential to reframe its narrative and increase its share price
  • Strong founder and management team with a history of delivering impressive returns on equity

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Consumer: Meituan, Great Wall Motor, L’Occitane, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, XPeng , Warby Parker Inc and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 24 May 2024); Strong Bank Buying and Tech Selling Continues
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 24 May 2024):  HK Stocks Have a BAD Week and AH Premium Rebounds In
  • Merger Arb Mondays (27 May) – L’Occitane, SciClone, GA Pack, KFC Japan, CF Logistics, Best World
  • Many Companies Still Consider Engagement with Investors to Be Someone Else’s Business
  • China Consumption Weekly (27 May 2024): Xpeng, Tongcheng, Kanzhun, Gaotu, KE, Bilibili, and Weibo
  • Warby Parker Inc (WRBY) – Friday, Feb 23, 2024


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 24 May 2024); Strong Bank Buying and Tech Selling Continues

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer for HK$18.6bn on strong two-way volumes. The top three net buys of the week were SOE banks. Some may be Central Huijin.
  • Some of this may be driven by the dividend w/h tax cancellation on H divs and by significant H-share discounts, but high-div CNOOC was the biggest net sell.
  • No end to the inflows, and HK valuations are not at a place where they would hamper continued flows. Alibaba making HK a Primary will spur more inflows over time.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 24 May 2024):  HK Stocks Have a BAD Week and AH Premium Rebounds In

By Travis Lundy

  • The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
  • SOUTHBOUND’s buy streak continued this past week; every day was net positive. NORTHBOUND was net positive too. It is not clear how much is National Team buying. Much may be.
  • AH Premia rebounded off multi-year lows, on average, this past week as Hang Seng and other HK indices fell sharply and A-shares did not fall as much. 


Many Companies Still Consider Engagement with Investors to Be Someone Else’s Business

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Although it’s possible to move AGM forward given the timing of financial reporting, 70% of companies will hold their AGM during the 3 days of the last week of June.
  • As long as the concentration of AGM dates continues, the start of electronic provision of AGM documents should at least be accelerated to allow time to review the agenda.
  • Only slightly less than 30% of prime market listed companies provide English translations of all convocation notices, including business reports and financial statements.

China Consumption Weekly (27 May 2024): Xpeng, Tongcheng, Kanzhun, Gaotu, KE, Bilibili, and Weibo

By Ming Lu

  • In 1Q24, Revenues of Xpeng, Tongcheng, Kanzhun, and Gaotu grew by 62% YoY, 50%, YoY, 43% YoY and 34% YoY.
  • KE’s revenue decreased by 20% YoY in 1Q24 due to the weak property market.
  • Bilibili’s value added services revenue grew by 17% YoY and advertising revenue grew by 31% YoY.

Warby Parker Inc (WRBY) – Friday, Feb 23, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Warby Parker disrupted the eyewear industry in 2010 with affordable prices and innovative styles, known for their commitment to social impact
  • The company has faced challenges with slowing growth and increased competition, leading to concerns about its uniqueness and disrupter status
  • Critics believe that Warby Parker’s focus on technology and business model changes indicate a potential decline, making it a target for short selling.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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