Category

Consumer

Apr 19
0

Consumer: DiDi Global, Euglena Co Ltd, Beenos Inc, Rakuten Inc and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • DIDI Decides To Delist – Now It Gets Messy
  • DiDi to Vote on US Delisting on 23 May
  • Euglena (2931 JP) | Flying High on Sustainable Aviation Fuel
  • Beenos Valuation: SOTP Suggests Plenty of Upside Potential
  • Rakuten (4755 JP) | Time to Cover the Shorts

DIDI Decides To Delist – Now It Gets Messy

By Travis Lundy

  • The company was told a year ago that it had data problems. It was then told in June it had serious data problems and was given 15 days to fix.
  • It did not. It listed itself, against the wishes of the regulators. Then it got in serious hot water. And it has only been getting hotter. 
  • A hoped-for HK Listing By Introduction was nixed 5 weeks ago. Now the Company is simply going to delist to try to solve its problems behind closed doors before relisting.

DiDi to Vote on US Delisting on 23 May

By Arun George

  • DiDi Global (DIDI US) will hold an EGM on 23 May to vote to delist the ADS from the NYSE. The shares will not be listed on another exchange before delisting. 
  • Due to the regulatory restrictions, DiDi is losing market share and pricing power to competitors in China. The 4Q21 results were poor. 
  • Directors and key pre-IPO investors together account for 48.2% of outstanding shares, suggesting that the ordinary resolution will pass. 

Euglena (2931 JP) | Flying High on Sustainable Aviation Fuel

By Mark Chadwick

  • Euglena could be the most important sustainable aviation fuel company in Japan and a world leader in using micro algae as a feedstock
  • The company looks set to become the largest provider of SAF in Japan by 2025
  • Assuming the company can hit its commercial SAF production target, we think the stock could easily double

Beenos Valuation: SOTP Suggests Plenty of Upside Potential

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Leading up to the GoTo IPO, Beenos Inc (3328 JP) shares rallied more than 80% to ¥2,364 per share, possibly expecting substantial listing gains from the “conservatively” priced GoTo IPO.
  • GoTo (GOTO IJ) opened around 18% above its IPO price on 11th April 2022, but Beenos fell by around 7% and 8% on 11th and 12th April 2022 respectively.
  • It may be too late to ride the GoTo IPO rally, but exposure to a high-profile company like GoTo brings visibility, resulting in a much narrower NAV discount.

Rakuten (4755 JP) | Time to Cover the Shorts

By Mark Chadwick

  • We have a non-consensus Bullish call on Rakuten and see over 60% upside to the share price
  • The key driver will be a recovery in the Mobile Business
  • We expect losses to gradually improve as roaming fees and customer acquisition costs start to decline

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Apr 18
0

Consumer: Shimano Inc, Demae-Can Co., Ltd., Tesla Motors and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Shimano (7309): Bumpy
  • Japan’s Governance: Demae-Can (2484) 2QFY8/2022 Briefing
  • Tesla (TSLA): Shanghai’s Lockdown Killing Whole Chinese Automobile Supply Chain

Shimano (7309): Bumpy

By Henry Soediarko

  • Giant Manufacturing (9921 TT) , one of Shimano’s top customers, is reportedly having a production issue and can only sort it out by the end of this year. 
  • Shimano Inc (7309 JP) is no longer Japan-centric but a global company with customers all over the world. 
  • Low valuation gives an illusion that it is cheap historically but expects a bumpy road ahead.

Japan’s Governance: Demae-Can (2484) 2QFY8/2022 Briefing

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The E-Commerce Model, which is a source of revenue, is seeing a decline in profit margins while marketing costs remain high.
  • In the Delivery Model, the profitability of Outsourced Delivery is improving, but it has yet to break even. Demae-Can intends to seek opportunities in retail delivery to accelerate break-even process.
  • Demae-Can plans to achieve the operating loss for FY8/2022 to 50 billion yen, but hasn’t indicated when it returns to black-ink due to the competitive environment in food delivery business.

Tesla (TSLA): Shanghai’s Lockdown Killing Whole Chinese Automobile Supply Chain

By Ming Lu

  • Many automakers said they suspended their productions due to the lockdown of Shanghai.
  • A vice minister of Industry and Information Technology announced that 666 companies will resume production in Shanghai.
  • We believe it is hard to resume the automobile soon because of the complication of a vehicle and the traffic jams around Shanghai.

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Apr 17
0

Consumer: JD.com Inc., AllianceBernstein Holding LP, Delta Corp Ltd, Booking Holdings and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week in Event SPACE: JD.com, Suzuki, Twitter, Toyo Construction, Uniti Group, Singapore Press
  • Fiduciary Management Small Cap Equity Q1 2022 Investment Letter
  • India’s Delta Corporation Endures Omicron with Strong Fiscal 2021-2022 in Vastly Underserved Market
  • Fiduciary Management International Equity Q1 2022 Investment Letter

Last Week in Event SPACE: JD.com, Suzuki, Twitter, Toyo Construction, Uniti Group, Singapore Press

By David Blennerhassett

  • JD.com (9618 HK)‘s CCASS movements are a thing, and there are things going on in the background, but the things in the foreground are not as menacing as they appear. 
  • Suzuki Co Ltd (6785 JP)‘s NAV discount and implied stub plumb new lows. Again.
  • Musk has made a non-binding proposal for Twitter Inc (TWTR US) at US$54.20/share. Get it? Get it? Nudge nudge wink wink. That’s all part of the fun for him.

Fiduciary Management Small Cap Equity Q1 2022 Investment Letter

By Fund Newsletters

  • Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, the market has moved in somewhat of a barbell fashion.
  • If higher interest rates and inflation characterize the landscape for the next several years, it likely spells the end of the era of unbridled speculation and high multiples, says FMI.

India’s Delta Corporation Endures Omicron with Strong Fiscal 2021-2022 in Vastly Underserved Market

By Howard J Klein

  • Legal casino gaming is limited to only three of India’s states, including Goa, Sikkim and Daman. But nationally US$60b is wagered legally and in grey area sites.
  • Delta’s gambling ships and casinos lie within a roughly 2.5 hour flight from population centers like Mumbai and Delhi.
  • Latest operating results indicate strong gains despite lingering Omicron spurts positioning the stock for a strong upside ahead.

Fiduciary Management International Equity Q1 2022 Investment Letter

By Fund Newsletters

  • FMI’s equity investing strategies apply a value discipline, with a focused approach firmly rooted in fundamental research.
  • The FMI International portfolios’ exposure to Russia and Ukraine is quite limited, with no direct investments in either country.

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Apr 16
0

Consumer: Singapore Press Holdings, Tesla Motors, Fast Retailing, Ace Hardware Indonesia, Taelim Paper, Bloom Energy Corp, Lantheus Holdings and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • SPH Shareholders – SPH REIT Options Decay in Value
  • Elon Buying Twitter? Probably Not
  • Fast Retailing (9983) – Summer Is the Time for Shorts
  • Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) – Back on an Expansion Tack
  • Tailim Paper IPO Preview
  • Clearbridge Small Cap Growth Strategy Portfolio Manager Commentary Q1 2022
  • Fast Retailing: New Growth Pillar May Not Be Strong Enough to Support the Weight of Valuation
  • Clearbridge Small Cap Strategy Portfolio Manager Commentary Q1 2022

SPH Shareholders – SPH REIT Options Decay in Value

By Travis Lundy

  • Shares in Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP) stopped trading a week ago. The election period to choose cash or cash and SPH REIT shares started yesterday.
  • The OBVIOUS choice is to take the cash. But you have ten days to see SPH REIT gain 2% to change your mind. 
  • I note Keppel wanted SPH back when SPHREIT was worth a fair bit less, but at that time they didn’t want SPHREIT when an MGO would have been cheaper.

Elon Buying Twitter? Probably Not

By Vicki Bryan

  • Tesla CEO Elon Musk bid $43 billion to buy Twitter and take it private. 
  • Better odds: Elon was bored. Pulled the stunt to irritate the SEC.
  • Musk gets attention. Collects cash! Bolts before paying the check…on 4/20

Fast Retailing (9983) – Summer Is the Time for Shorts

By Mark Chadwick

  • Interim results were surprisingly strong considering the headwinds from China and rising costs
  • 2H guidance looks optimistic. China remains a key risk and we still see risks to the gross margin
  • The “R” word. Rising inflation, Rising Interest rates = Recession. Probably not good for consumers and certainly not good for high stock multiples

Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) – Back on an Expansion Tack

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) recently released its FY2021 results which reflected the intermittent lockdowns on the top line but cost controls meant the bottom line finish almost flat.
  • The company benefitted from its regional diversity during the pandemic as not all cities were affected in the same way but its exposure to malls is quite high.
  • Ace Hardware will resume its expansion plans in 2022 with plans for 15 new stores plus it will be a big beneficiary of easing mobility, given low online sales.

Tailim Paper IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Tailim Paper is the number one company in Korea specializing in the production of corrugated cardboard.
  • Tailim Paper is getting ready to complete an IPO towards the end of May. The IPO price range is from 19,000 won to 22,000 won.
  • According to the bankers’ valuation, the expected market cap of Tailim Paper is from 616 billion won  to 713 billion won.

Clearbridge Small Cap Growth Strategy Portfolio Manager Commentary Q1 2022

By Fund Newsletters

  • Small cap growth stocks entered bear market territory during the quarter, buffeted by the prospects of monetary tightening, spiking inflation and the uncertainties wrought by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Fast Retailing: New Growth Pillar May Not Be Strong Enough to Support the Weight of Valuation

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Even though 2QFY22 results were broadly in line with consensus, Fast Retailing (9983 JP)’s share price rose 8.8% as markets expected the worst amidst the Russian controversy and Shanghai lockdowns.
  • However, this price movement seems unwarranted given the impact of Shanghai lockdowns could only be seen in the 3QFY22 financial statements.
  • During earnings, FR introduced North America & Europe as new growth drivers to replace the declining Chinese market. But we are not convinced that they are up to the task.

Clearbridge Small Cap Strategy Portfolio Manager Commentary Q1 2022

By Fund Newsletters

  • Small cap stocks had a rough ride during the first quarter, as increases in market volatility and investor uncertainty from major macro catalysts weighed on performance.
  • The process of ending a decade of cheap and available capital has begun, creating headwinds that pose a challenge for the market as a whole.

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Apr 15
0

Consumer: Lawson Inc, Uniti Group Ltd, Mitra Adiperkasa, Netflix Inc, S Foods Inc, Aspen Technology and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lawson Considering IPO for Seijo Ishii
  • Uniti Enters SID With Morrison/Brookfield
  • Uniti Enters a SID with Morrison/Brookfield Consortium at A$5.00 Per Share
  • Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) – Remoulded and Ready for Recovery
  • ClearBridge Appreciation Strategy Portfolio Manager Commentary Q1 2022
  • S Foods (2292): Record Profits in FY2/22; FY2/23 Guidance Calls for NP of 10bn Yen and Dividend Hike
  • Clearbridge Investments Mid Cap Strategy Portfolio Manager Commentary Q1 2022

Lawson Considering IPO for Seijo Ishii

By Michael Causton

  • Lawson Inc (2651 JP) acquired the upmarket supermarket operator, Seijo Ishii, in 2014 for ¥55 billion.
  • It is now considering plans for an IPO for Seijo next year following a boom in the company’s fortunes during the pandemic.
  • Net profit rose 13% last year and the potential for growth remains strong given the expansion of the wealth market in Japan. 

Uniti Enters SID With Morrison/Brookfield

By David Blennerhassett

  • Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU) has now entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed (SID) with the Morrison/Brookfield Consortium.
  • The Offer price remains at A$5.00/share, in line with the revised proposal on the 29 March. 
  • Uniti’s Board of Directors unanimously recommends that Uniti shareholders vote in favour of the Scheme in the absence of a Superior Proposal. 

Uniti Enters a SID with Morrison/Brookfield Consortium at A$5.00 Per Share

By Arun George

  • Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU) has entered a SID with the Morrison/Brookfield consortium at A$5.00 cash per share less dividends declared or paid after today. 
  • The key scheme conditions are shareholder approval, FIRB approval and Court approval. The scheme meeting will be held in July.
  • We think that the offer is attractive. At the last close price of A$4.96, the gross and annualised spread to a July-end effective date is 0.8% and 2.8%, respectively.

Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) – Remoulded and Ready for Recovery

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Mitra Adiperkasa’s results this week confirm a strong recovery is in place, with improving margins and growth across all verticals and a return to profitability for FY2021. 
  • Growth was evident in both online and offline channels as the company’s unified retail strategy continues to yield strong results plus inventory levels improved dramatically QoQ in 4Q2021.
  • Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) remains a key proxy for the retail recovery in Indonesia and has remoulded itself to changing consumer behaviour. Valuations remain attractive versus historical levels. 

ClearBridge Appreciation Strategy Portfolio Manager Commentary Q1 2022

By Fund Newsletters

  • The S&P 500 Index finished the first quarter down 4.6%, snapping a run of seven straight quarters of positive returns.
  • The stock market is above the 90th percentile in almost every valuation metric and could be vulnerable to a materially slower U.S. economy, which it does not seem to be discounting.
  • Credit spreads widened, parts of the yield curve inverted, and the Fed began to drain liquidity via interest rate increases and stated its intent to reduce its balance sheet

S Foods (2292): Record Profits in FY2/22; FY2/23 Guidance Calls for NP of 10bn Yen and Dividend Hike

By Mita Securities

  • On April 14, S Foods (2292, the company) announced FY2/22 sales of 358.8bn yen (+9.6% YoY) and OP of 17.4bn yen (+38.2% YoY, OPM 4.9%)
  • The company’s full-year guidance for FY2/23 is sales of 375.0bn yen (+4.5% YoY), OP of 14.8bn yen (-15.1% YoY; OPM 3.9%), and NP of 10.0bn yen (-16.3% YoY)
  • The company’s strong performance in the U.S. should make it a relatively strong performer among major meatpackers.

Clearbridge Investments Mid Cap Strategy Portfolio Manager Commentary Q1 2022

By Fund Newsletters

  • ClearBridge is a leading global asset manager committed to active management.
  • The Strategy underperformed the benchmark as elevated levels of uncertainty and volatility during the quarter put pressure on mid cap stocks.
  • We are confident in our current portfolio construction and believe our holdings will persevere through these short- term challenges.

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Apr 14
0

Consumer: Suzuki Motor, Emperador Inc, Honda Motor, Dongwon Industries, Inter Parfums, Koshidaka Holdings, KOMEDA Holdings Co Ltd and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Suzuki’s NAV Discount And Implied Stub Plumb New Lows. Again
  • Emperador Secondary Listing: Borderline STI Inclusion
  • Honda – EV Briefing Raises Some Interesting Questions
  • Dongwon Industries Merger: KOSPI 200 Flow Trading & Shorting Prospects on Cancellation
  • IPAR: Growth Prospects of 2022
  • Koshidaka Holdings (2157): 1H OP Turns to Positive; Significant Store Expansion
  • Komeda Holdings (3543): FY2/22 OP Achieved Guidance

Suzuki’s NAV Discount And Implied Stub Plumb New Lows. Again

By David Blennerhassett

  • Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)‘s implied stub and simple ratio (Suzuki/ Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)) are currently at all-time lows.
  • This bifurcation has become endemic in the relative value space, especially in Japan. 
  • Maruti is trading rich amid its ongoing support for hybrid vehicles. That scenario won’t play out well. 

Emperador Secondary Listing: Borderline STI Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

Honda – EV Briefing Raises Some Interesting Questions

By Mio Kato

  • Honda’s Briefing on its Automobile Electrification Business yesterday laid out a reasonably aggressive EV rollout plan emphasising some existing partnerships. 
  • It also highlighted that they would procure batteries domestically from Envision AESC. 
  • That is another move that takes Honda a step closer to Nissan’s supply chain and has us pondering a potential merger/partnership once again.

Dongwon Industries Merger: KOSPI 200 Flow Trading & Shorting Prospects on Cancellation

By Sanghyun Park

  • Dongwon Industries merger will welcome 44.88M new shares, bumping up the total issued shares by 2.5 times.
  • So, we will likely see a passive inflow of 0.39x ADTV at the close on October 20, a level certainly worth our attention for flow trading.
  • However, a short position approach to betting on this possibility is expected to face quite a tight journey.

IPAR: Growth Prospects of 2022

By Hamed Khorsand

  • IPAR has entered 2022 owning a series of new licenses and the reopening of international airports should result in sales growing at a faster pace than the current consensus estimates
  • In the case of the Donna Karan license, IPAR begins to recognize sales in the second half of the year when it is traditionally the peak sales period
  • The recent lifting of COVID-19 restrictions in Europe eases international travel, which should have a positive impact on sales in 2022

Koshidaka Holdings (2157): 1H OP Turns to Positive; Significant Store Expansion

By Mita Securities

  • On April 13, Koshida Holdings (2157, the company) announced 1H FY8/22 sales of 16.533bn yen (+36.5% YoY), OP of 275m yen (-2.644bn yen loss in 1H FY8/21)
  • 2Q (Dec-Feb) OP was 1.406bn yen (-1.661bn yen loss in 2Q FY8/21), a significant improvement from 1Q OP of -1.131bn yen
  • The total number of stores for the karaoke business at end-2Q was 584 (+7 from end-1Q; +25 from end-FY8/21)

Komeda Holdings (3543): FY2/22 OP Achieved Guidance

By Mita Securities

  • On April 13, Komeda Holdings (3543) announced FY2/22 full-year IFRS sales of 33.317bn (+15.5% YoY) and OP of 7.305bn (+32.6% YoY; OPM 21.9%)
  • 4Q (Dec-Feb) OP was 1.458bn yen (+17.9% YoY, -28.8% QoQ), with OPM of 16.8% (16.3% for 4Q FY2/21; 24.8% for 3Q)
  • The company’s full-year guidance for FY2/23 is sales of 37bn (+11.1% YoY) and OP of 8bn yen (+9.5% YoY, OPM 21.6%)

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Apr 13
0

Consumer: JD.com Inc., Taste Gourmet Group, Cloud Village, Water Oasis, Tri Stage Inc, Sony Corp, Sido Muncul, Lawson Inc, Goldwin Inc and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • JD.com (9618 HK): CCASS Share Increase Driver & Potential Prosus Selldown
  • Taste Gourmet: Multibagger Reopening Play
  • JD.com’s Musical Shares – Less Than You Think
  • HK Connect: March ’22 Inclusion Post-Event Analysis
  • Water Oasis: A Double From Here, Brace for the Re-Opening of Hong Kong
  • Tri-Stage (2178 JP) MBO by Bain – Another Lowball Takeover Likely To Get Done
  • Sony – An Epic Funding Round
  • Sido Muncul (SIDO): The Dawn of New Era
  • Lawson: Profitability Held Back by Growth Investments
  • Goldwin Expecting Record Sales

JD.com (9618 HK): CCASS Share Increase Driver & Potential Prosus Selldown

By Brian Freitas

  • There has been an increase of 700m shares held in HK CCASS for JD.com Inc. (9618 HK) on 11 April.
  • The largest part of 421.5m shares is likely the conversion of Class B to Class A shares following Richard Liu stepping down as CEO of the company.
  • The rest is unknown at this point but could be Prosus (PRX NA) moving their shares to HK to sell-down and use the cash to buy back their own stock.

Taste Gourmet: Multibagger Reopening Play

By Sameer Taneja

  • The relaxing of restrictions by Hong Kong makes Taste Gourmet Group Ltd (8371 HK) a great reopening play, trading at 8.8x FY22e and 5.6x FY23e. 
  • Despite a challenging environment, the company has executed well, maintaining net margins north of 7-8%, which are far superior to other listed competitors.
  • With >60% payout ratios, it trades at a dividend yield of 6.7%/11.4% FY22e/FY23e. Since 29% of the market capitalization is cash, we are confident in the dividend payments. 

JD.com’s Musical Shares – Less Than You Think

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, CCASS data showed that 700,000,047 Class A Shares of JD.com Inc. (9618 HK) popped into existence in CCASS (from outside of CCASS the day before). Poof!
  • They showed up in Deutsche Bank’s CCASS Participant account. Just like the 600,000,000 Class A Shares which popped in on 15 December 2021. 
  • There’s a thing here, and there are things going on in the background, but the things in the foreground are not as menacing as they appear. I explore and explain.

HK Connect: March ’22 Inclusion Post-Event Analysis

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • After one month from the March batch of Hong Kong Connect inclusion, we provide an analysis on the stock inclusion for 19 stocks. 
  • We analysed the inclusion by performance post announcement, performance post inclusion, inflows and analyst coverage.
  • We observed outperformance post the HSCI announcement but not the actual inclusion despite the fact that southbound inflows has a significant impact on the trading volume. 

Water Oasis: A Double From Here, Brace for the Re-Opening of Hong Kong

By Sameer Taneja

  • Beauty services in Hong Kong will pick up from the 21st of April 2022 post the reopening, due to pent-up demand and the disbursement of Consumption Vouchers by the government. 
  • Despite losing three months of H1 2022 and a month of H2 2022, we believe that Water Oasis (1161 HK)  is still trading at 5.4x PE FY22e.
  • With an 80% payout ratio, the dividend yield is alluring at 16.4%. Net cash represents 38% of market capitalization. A year of uninterrupted operations implies a 3.8x PE. 

Tri-Stage (2178 JP) MBO by Bain – Another Lowball Takeover Likely To Get Done

By Travis Lundy

  • Bain is getting the major execs to tender, and rolling Sojitz Corp (2768 JP)‘s 23% into the post-Tender EGM vote. That gets them to 57+%. No majority of minority here. 
  • But the equity check appears to be about 0.06x revenue, 4-5x PER, and takeover price EV at 4+ish years of forecast EBITDA. It’s a good rollup for its ads business.
  • Too cheap, but not much you can do about it. Foreigners and financial holders own less than 0.5% of shares out. 

Sony – An Epic Funding Round

By Mio Kato

  • Sony and LEGO’s investment in Epic comes shortly after the official release of Unreal Engine 5 which promises to significantly improve efficiency for game designers and visual effects artists. 
  • We had predicted that Sony and Epic would continue to drift closer and would eventually dominate the metaverse and this does nothing to change that view.
  • We discuss below the impact on some popular metaverse plays which investors seem to fail to realise are only metaverse plays because they can be shorted.

Sido Muncul (SIDO): The Dawn of New Era

By Henry Soediarko

  • Launched 30 new SKUs during COVID-19 in multiple areas of health that can transform the company from herbal remedies into a bigger conglomerate of health providers. 
  • PE firm that backed SIDO in the earlier years reduced its holdings but it should not be seen as a vote of negative confidence in the company. 
  • Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) can be compared to Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU) which has a wide range of health products but trades at a 100% premium to SIDO. 

Lawson: Profitability Held Back by Growth Investments

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • The fourth quarter was again a disappointing one for Lawson Inc (2651 JP) with operating income falling short of consensus by 14.6%.
  • The next year’s OP guidance of ¥53.0bn (12.5% YoY) is around ¥10.0bn below the pre-COVID level, but Lawson’s lower profitability could be due to heavy upfront investments.
  • Further out, there is substantial upside to Lawson’s profitability and consensus could be unjustly penalizing Lawson’s growth investments by valuing the company at a discounted FY+2 OP multiple.

Goldwin Expecting Record Sales

By Michael Causton

  • Goldwin Inc (8111 JP) has risen to hold a leading share in outdoor wear retailing on the back of the success of The North Face.
  • It has developed considerable retail and marketing skills in the process and is now applying these to its own brand with hopes of going global.
  • Demand for new forms of sports and outdoor brand remain strong in Japan and globally and Goldwin’s mix of technical fabrics and quality could give it an edge.

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Apr 12
0

Consumer: Kohnan Shoji, Garrett Motion, Adecoagro SA, CP ALL PCL, KOMEDA Holdings Co Ltd, Monogatari Corp and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Kohnan Shoji (7516) Buyback – Shareholder Return? Activist Defense? Future MBO? All of the Above?
  • GTX: The Macro Factor
  • Weekly Stock Bullfinder- Week of 4/11
  • Cp All (CPALL.BK) – Growth Resumes
  • Komeda Holdings (3543): Wholesale Sales on a Recovery Track in March; Food Service Industry Update
  • Monogatari Corporation (3097): Signs of Recovery Among Senior Customers at Yuzuan

Kohnan Shoji (7516) Buyback – Shareholder Return? Activist Defense? Future MBO? All of the Above?

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday after the close, 500+ store home centre operator Kohnan Shoji (7516 JP) announced full-year earnings (revs -0.2%, OP -16.6%, NP -16.4%yoy) and a buyback. 
  • The buyback is for up to 1.2mm shares and up to ¥4bn to spend from here to end Sep 2022.
  • The shareholder register is interesting, diverse, and makes one wonder whether the buyback is to soften the blow of lower income, defence against an activist, or something else.

GTX: The Macro Factor

By Hamed Khorsand

  • In the first quarter, automakers have been back to stops and starts with segments of their production runs due to parts availability
  • GTX’s product mix makes the Company vulnerable to the ongoing supply chain issues arising from the war in Ukraine
  • In March 2022 there was a 7.2 magnitude earthquake in Japan that resulted in power loss and infrastructure damages

Weekly Stock Bullfinder- Week of 4/11

By Weekly Stock Bull Finder

  • This past week, we saw two notable “changes in character” in the energy and the bond market.
  • Adecoagro S.A. operates as an agro-industrial company in South America. It engages in farming crops and other agricultural products, dairy operations, and land transformation activities
  • The company is involved in the planting, harvesting, and sale of grains and oilseeds,

Cp All (CPALL.BK) – Growth Resumes

By Maybank Research

  • Improving consumer sentiment to lift CPALL’s sales
  • Robust SSSG and more contribution from Lotus’s
  • Earnings likely rebounded sharply QoQ and YoY
  • Return of tourists to increase traffic

Komeda Holdings (3543): Wholesale Sales on a Recovery Track in March; Food Service Industry Update

By Mita Securities

  • Wholesale sales to franchisees (same-store basis) in March were 103.0% vs. March 2021 (97.2% for February)
  • We have the impression that in-store dining sales have been improving generally due to lifting of the shorter operating hours requests
  • It appears that the market responded positively to the lifting of the shorter operating hour requests in late March

Monogatari Corporation (3097): Signs of Recovery Among Senior Customers at Yuzuan

By Mita Securities

  • Same-store sales for directly-owned stores were 108.2% vs. March 2021 (102.9% for February), 94.0% vs. March 2020 (70.2% for February)
  • The business environment was unfavorable for the company which mainly operates all- you can-eat restaurant formats, as requests for shorter operating hours continued until mid-March
  • However, we have the impression that the company did well despite the difficult business environment

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Apr 11
0

Consumer: Emtek, Tabcorp Ltd and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • MSCI May 2022 Index Rebalance Preview: Last Week Before the Start of the Review Period
  • Tabcorp’s Valuation Discovery into the Demerger

MSCI May 2022 Index Rebalance Preview: Last Week Before the Start of the Review Period

By Brian Freitas

Tabcorp’s Valuation Discovery into the Demerger

By Arun George

  • Tabcorp Ltd (TAH AU)’s demerger will create two standalone companies listed on the ASX – The Lottery Corporation and New Tabcorp
  • The scheme meeting to approve the demerger will be held on 12 May at 10.00 am. The Lottery Corporation will trade on a normal settlement basis on 2 June.
  • This transaction aims to unlock value. Our SoTP valuation is A$6.13 per share, which is a 14% upside to the last close price of A$5.39 per share.

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Apr 10
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Consumer: Shakey’s Pizza, CJ Corp and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Shakey’s Pizza: High Conviction Three Bagger, Management Call Provides Superb Guidance For FY22
  • CJ Olive Young: Well Positioned to Complete IPO in 2H 2022 After Solid Results in 2021

Shakey’s Pizza: High Conviction Three Bagger, Management Call Provides Superb Guidance For FY22

By Sameer Taneja

  • Shakey’s Pizza Asia Ventures (PIZZA PM) is a play on F&B normalizing in the Philippines.  On our numbers, it trades at a 12.9x PE for FY22 and 10x for FY23.
  • Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) peers like Domino’s Pizza (DPZ US) and Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI IN) trade at multiples of 39x and 59x fwd PE, making Shakey’s an extremely cheap stock. 
  • Versus the current multiple of 7.9 peso/share, we believe the stock can trade up to 30x PE FY23 implying a 24 peso/share price (200% upside).

CJ Olive Young: Well Positioned to Complete IPO in 2H 2022 After Solid Results in 2021

By Douglas Kim

  • CJ Olive Young is the number one health and beauty (H&B) store chain in Korea. CJ Olive Young is well positioned to complete its IPO in 2H 2022.
  • The local media have noted that CJ Olive Young’s market value could reach 3.5 trillion won to 4.0 trillion won after the IPO.
  • If CJ Olive Young is valued at 3.5 trillion won, CJ Corp’s 51.1% stake would be 1.8 trillion won, which would be worth 71% of CJ Corp’s current market cap. 

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