Category

Consumer

Daily Brief Consumer: Alibaba Group, Leapmotor, Pinduoduo, YH Entertainment Group, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Inter Parfums, JD Health, Pepsico Inc, Restaurant Brands Intern and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba Cloud – On Path to Fetch Zero Dollar Valuation
  • Leapmotor IPO Preview
  • Pinduoduo (PDD): 2Q22, Viewpoint Opposite to Marvelous Performance
  • YH Entertainment IPO – While Smaller than Peers, It Is a Lot Cheaper as Well
  • Leapmotor Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – 6M22 Sales Doing Well, Catching up with the Rest
  • ESG Mutual Funds Are Not to Be ESG Investing for Show
  • IPAR: Primetime of the Year Begins
  • JD Health (6618.HK) 2022H1 – A Second Growth Point Is Needed to Reassure Investment Logic
  • PepsiCo Inc: Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (08/22)
  • Restaurant Brands International: Increased Digital Push Through New Agencies & Other Drivers

Alibaba Cloud – On Path to Fetch Zero Dollar Valuation

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • State-Owned-Entities (SOEs) in Tianjin are set to complete the migration of their data from private sector operators like Alibaba Group (9988 HK) to a state-backed cloud by 30th Sept 2022.
  • This has already started to tip the balance of power in Chinese cloud computing in favour of politically favoured cloud operators like China Telecom.
  • We think the impact of nationalising the cloud could escalate to Alibaba Cloud’s overseas markets as most of its customers overseas are Chinese companies with a global presence.

Leapmotor IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Leapmotor is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong in the next few weeks, aiming to raise US$1 billion to US$1.5 billion.
  • Leapmotor is one of the fastest growing pure play EV companies in China in terms of delivery volume. Leapmotor shipped more than 43,000 EVs in 2021, up 443.5% YoY.
  • Leapmotor’s revenue surged from 117 million RMB in 2019 to 3,132 million RMB in 2021. Operating margin improved from -625% in 2019 to -137.7% in 2020, and -91.6% in 2021.

Pinduoduo (PDD): 2Q22, Viewpoint Opposite to Marvelous Performance

By Ming Lu

  • In 2Q22, revenue growth rate accelerated and the operating profit achieved record high.
  • However, we believe PDD does not fully explain its exclusive advantages over competitors.
  • We set a downside of 19% and a price target of US$47 for year end 2023.

YH Entertainment IPO – While Smaller than Peers, It Is a Lot Cheaper as Well

By Clarence Chu

  • YH Entertainment Group (2306 HK) is looking to raise up to US$144m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • YH Entertainment (YHE) is an artist management company in China. Its business covers the entire artist management industry value chain, from auditioning, training, artist operation to artist promotion.
  • As per Frost & Sullivan (F&S), YHE was ranked first amongst artist management companies in China with a market share of 1.9%, based on artist management revenue generated in 2021. 

Leapmotor Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – 6M22 Sales Doing Well, Catching up with the Rest

By Sumeet Singh

  • Leapmotor (LM) aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. LM is a smart EV company based in China, founded in 2015.
  • As of end Jun 22, it had delivered a total of 104,829 cars with most of its sales coming from its mini units, T03.
  • In our previous notes, we spoke about the company’s past performance. In this note, we will have a look at its PHIP updates.

ESG Mutual Funds Are Not to Be ESG Investing for Show

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Not many individual investors understand the value of ESG investing and buy ESG investment trusts, as inflows/outflows from ESG investment trusts have much to do with market volatility.
  • It’s unclear how much ESG investing contributed to the performance, as aspects were saved by the performance of sectors in which they invest and by the benefits of weak yen.
  • Efforts must be made to help individual investors understand the value of ESG investing and encourage long-term investment. To this end, investment managers should establish investment approach to ESG investing.

IPAR: Primetime of the Year Begins

By Hamed Khorsand

  • IPAR has taken over the Donna Karan and DKNY brands setting the stage for further growth with larger brand licenses in its portfolio
  • IPAR reported second quarter sales of $244.7 million, which was in line with IPAR’s preannouncement
  • The Euro declining in value versus the US Dollar dented European sales growth figures, but sales managed to increase by double-digits over last year

JD Health (6618.HK) 2022H1 – A Second Growth Point Is Needed to Reassure Investment Logic

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • JD Health bucked the trend and grew in 2022H1. The Company has turned a profit first in front of its competitors Alibaba Health and Ping An Good Doctor.
  • The performance of the second growth point would determine whether JD Health can maintain good momentum under the challenges of policy risks and possible future bottlenecks of products revenue growth. 
  • Hopefully, the smart healthcare solutions and digital health business or the pet healthcare business can achieve breakthroughs. Then, there’re more certainty in long-term performance and valuation growth of JD Health.

PepsiCo Inc: Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (08/22)

By Baptista Research

  • PepsiCo reported a decent result in the quarter as the business momentum continued in spite of ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic volatility and greater levels of inflation over the markets.
  • The company delivered an all-aroubd beat driven by organic revenue growth of double digits in the quarter.
  • We provide the stock of PepsiCo with a ‘Hold’ rating with a revision in the target price.

Restaurant Brands International: Increased Digital Push Through New Agencies & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Restaurants Brands International has been facing a difficult and uncertain environment because of ongoing wage and commodity inflation, broader macro uncertainties, and rising interest rates impacting the restaurant industry.
  • During the quarter, Restaurant Brands raised menu prices to help offset rising freight and food costs.
  • We provide a ‘Hold’ rating on the stock of Restaurants Brands International with a revision in the target price.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Alibaba Group, PT Surya Citra Media Tbk, Shiseido Company and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • CSRC and PCAOB “Agree” On Audit Terms – Now PCAOB Will Try To Prove a Negative
  • PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) – On the Cusp of a Convincing Recovery
  • Shiseido (4911 JP) | Wrinkle Free

CSRC and PCAOB “Agree” On Audit Terms – Now PCAOB Will Try To Prove a Negative

By Travis Lundy

  • Friday in US time, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), China’s MOF, and the US Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) “agreed” on a Statement of Protocol.
  • This SoP sets the outlines for PCAOB access to inspect/investigate audit papers and accounting firms in China and HK for companies listed in the US.
  • The releases’ difference in language is to be expected – different constituencies – but as PCAOB Chair Williams said, “Now we will find out whether those promises hold up.”

PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) – On the Cusp of a Convincing Recovery

By Angus Mackintosh

  • PT Surya Citra Media 1H2022 reflects a recovery in advertising activity but also a normalisation of costs and investment in future growth, especially in its leading Indonesian OTT business Vidio.
  • The company continues to gain audience share, as it invests in new fresh content and its sporting content such as Liga 1, and the English Premier League kicks in.
  • PT Surya Citra Media is a proxy for recovering advertising spending as the Indonesian economy recovers plus its digital strategy through Vidio has already been proving successful.

Shiseido (4911 JP) | Wrinkle Free

By Mark Chadwick

  • We turn Bullish on Shiseido. The market has now digested the weak results for 2022 and can look to a recovery over the next year
  • Recent commentary from Estee Lauder’s CEO suggest that China is recovering and that the outlook is bright
  • Shiseido is one of the key beneficiaries as Japan re-opens its borders to foreign travellers

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Daily Brief Consumer: Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit, GOME Retail Holdings, Booking Holdings, Procter & Gamble Co, Conagra Foods, YH Entertainment Group and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit IPO – Not Fully Convinced but Appears Cheap on the Low End
  • Retailer Gome Doubles Down on Brick-And-Mortar Business
  • Booking Holdings: Collaboration With Citigroup & Other Drivers
  • Procter & Gamble Company: Financial Forecasts
  • Conagra Brands Inc: New Product Launches & Other Drivers
  • YH Entertainment IPO – Proven Track Record Could Mask Volatilities

Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit IPO – Not Fully Convinced but Appears Cheap on the Low End

By Ethan Aw

  • Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit (6689 HK) is looking to raise up to US$93m in its HK IPO.
  • Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit (CHJF) is a multi-brand fresh fruit distributor in China with an end-to-end supply chain. They have 1.0% market share as China’s second largest fruit distributor
  • CHJF had grown at an impressive rate even in the face of COVID-19. In this note, we will take a look at its valuations vs that of listed peers.

Retailer Gome Doubles Down on Brick-And-Mortar Business

By Caixin Global

  • Gome Retail Holdings Ltd, one of China’s largest bricks-and-mortar electronics retailers, plans to acquire real estate to develop into shopping malls and a customer experience center.
  • The company will modify an eight-story shopping mall in Gome Commercial Capital into an arena capable of accommodating roughly 300 manufacturers of home appliances and consumer electronics to display and sell their products.
  • The Beijing property covers an area of 524,638 square meters and also includes catering and entertainment facilities, a hotel, a warehouse and an underground parking lot.

Booking Holdings: Collaboration With Citigroup & Other Drivers

By Ishan Majumdar

  • For the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic, Booking Holdings managed to exceed the levels for room nights in the last quarter which is a significant milestone in its recovery.
  • Nearly 0.25 billion room nights were reserved by the company’s clients in Q2, a slight increase from the first quarter’s 9% fall and a rise of 16% compared to Q2 2019.
  • The near-term macroeconomic climate is unpredictable which is why we maintain our ‘Hold’ rating on Booking Holdings with a revised target price.

Procter & Gamble Company: Financial Forecasts

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Procter and Gamble delivered a decent top-line growth in the last quarter surpassing Wall Street expectations and continued its strong cash productivity which enables its high dividend payouts.
  • Feminine care, fabric care, and Personal health care were up by double digits, whereas personal care, skin and hair care, and oral and home care all grew low-single digit.
  • We provide the stock of Procter and Gamble Company with a ‘Hold’ rating with a revision in the target price.

Conagra Brands Inc: New Product Launches & Other Drivers

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Conagra Brands’ strong result was driven by the excellent performance of its snacks business and it managed to deliver an all-around beat.
  • With the joint venture, Ardent Mills, the company had a strong quarter performance that recently managed through the latest instability in the wheat markets as well as proved to be an effective windbreak against inflation.
  • Conagra brands are planning to deliver $1 billion in cost savings in the upcoming three years as it updates and renovates its supply chain.

YH Entertainment IPO – Proven Track Record Could Mask Volatilities

By Clarence Chu

  • YH Entertainment Group (2306 HK) is looking to raise up to US$144m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • YH Entertainment (YHE) is an artist management company in China. Its business covers the entire artist management industry value chain, from auditioning, training, artist operation to artist promotion.
  • As per Frost & Sullivan (F&S), YHE was ranked first amongst artist management companies in China with a market share of 1.9%, based on artist management revenue generated in 2021. 

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Daily Brief Consumer: WM Motor Technology Co Ltd, Nike, Colgate Palmolive Co, Levi Strauss & Co and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • WM Motor Holding IPO – The Negatives – Has Ample Issues to Contend With
  • Nike Inc: Innovation For The Pregnant Women Niche & Other Drivers
  • Colgate-Palmolive: What Recent Results Mean For Long-Term Holders
  • Levi Strauss & Co: Collaboration With Reese Cooper & Other Drivers

WM Motor Holding IPO – The Negatives – Has Ample Issues to Contend With

By Sumeet Singh

  • WM Motor Technology Co Ltd (WMT CH) (WMM) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • WM Motor is a smart EV player in China. As of the latest practicable date, it had a total of four main EV models. 
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Nike Inc: Innovation For The Pregnant Women Niche & Other Drivers

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Nike Inc had another stellar quarter and managed to surpass Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings with plenty of new innovations coming out.
  • A new lifestyle show, Nike Spark Flynit, was launched that introduces the latest innovation of NIKE Running with the Spark cushioning system.
  • This quarter, in Jordan, Luka Doncic debuted his anticipated signature shoe Luka 1, during the NBA Playoff.

Colgate-Palmolive: What Recent Results Mean For Long-Term Holders

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE:CL) is hardly a business for risk-seeking and short-term oriented investors.
  • While the management has given us a master class in long-term value creation, the share price is also unlikely to make anyone rich quickly.
  • On the contrary, CL is an investment akin for anyone looking for steady value accumulation, superior risk-adjusted returns and a wide moat.

Levi Strauss & Co: Collaboration With Reese Cooper & Other Drivers

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Levi Strauss & Co continued to see a strong consumer demand in the last quarter as the management continued executing its strategic initiatives that are viewed clearly in the results.
  • Its strategic priorities continue to be focused on margin expansion with a direct-to-consumer (D2C) first approach.
  • We provide Levi Strauss with a ‘Buy’ rating and a revision in the target price.

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Daily Brief Consumer: China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd, JD.com Inc., SJM Holdings, JD Health, Leapmotor, Sido Muncul, Pinduoduo, Foot Locker Inc and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • CTG Duty-Free H-Share Listing: Thoughts on First Day Trading
  • JD.com (9618 HK): 2Q22, Growth Tumbled, But Lockdown Eased, 20% Upside or More
  • CTG Duty Free H Share Listing: Trading Debut
  • Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings – 25th August 2022
  • JD Health: Slowdown in User Growth Is No Big Concern
  • Leapmotor IPO: The Bear Case
  • Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) – Opportunity in Adversity
  • Pinduoduo: A Beat Likely in 2Q22, But Medium-Term Consensus Is Still Hung Up On Old Assumptions
  • CTG Duty Free (1880 HK): Our Earnings Forecasts and Views on H-Share Fair Value
  • Foot Locker Inc: Partnership With Adidas & Other Drivers

CTG Duty-Free H-Share Listing: Thoughts on First Day Trading

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • CTG Duty-Free Group has priced its IPO at HK$158 per share, at a slight premium to the midpoint of the indicative IPO price range of HK$143.5-165.5 per share.
  • At HK$158 per share, the company raised net proceeds of HK$15,892.3 (approx. US$2.0bn) and the IPO is priced at an almost 30% discount to CTG’s A-share last close price.
  • Cornerstone investors subscribed for approx. 38.4% of the H-share offering (or 1.9% of the total issued share capital of the company post-offering) with some existing shareholders subscribing under placing guidelines.

JD.com (9618 HK): 2Q22, Growth Tumbled, But Lockdown Eased, 20% Upside or More

By Ming Lu

  • The revenue growth rate fell to 5% in 2Q22 due to the lockdown in Shanghai and Yangtze delta.
  • However, freezers became popular in June and July because of the experience during the lockdown.
  • We believe the stock has an upside of 21% based on EBITDA, but the upside can be significant if based on sales-related ratios.

CTG Duty Free H Share Listing: Trading Debut

By Arun George


Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings – 25th August 2022

By David Blennerhassett

  • The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website. 
  • Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute. 
  • These insights also flag those companies where shares have been pledged, both recently and ongoing.

JD Health: Slowdown in User Growth Is No Big Concern

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • JD Health reported 1H2022 results. Revenue increased 48.3% YoY to RMB20.2bn (vs consensus RMB19.4bn) while managed to report a small OP of RMB60m (0.3% of revenue) for the period.
  • Excluding share-based payment expenses, JD Health reported an OP of RMB1.0bn vs RMB564m in the same period a year ago, resulting in an OPM of 5.1% vs 4.1% in 1H2021.
  • The growth in annual active user account growth has declined during 1H2022, however, it was mainly due to decrease in marketing spend.

Leapmotor IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • Leapmotor (2007699D HK), a Chinese EV manufacturer, will start its listing hearing for a US$1.5 billion HKEx IPO this week, according to press reports.
  • In Leapmotor IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case. 
  • The key elements of the bear case rest on a slow ramp-up, lower revenue, high EBIT and FCF loss margin compared to peers at a similar stage of development.

Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) – Opportunity in Adversity

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Sido Muncul recently released its 1H2022, which reflected some impact from inflationary pressure impacting the purchasing power of its customer base, especially for herbal products.
  • The company’s food and beverage division and notably energy drinks saw some impact from a slowdown due to consumers taking a longer Lebaran break this year but saw strong exports.
  • Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) saw a sharp correction post its numbers but we would expect some recovery in 1H2022 and a resumption of growth in FY2023 plus valuations are attractive.

Pinduoduo: A Beat Likely in 2Q22, But Medium-Term Consensus Is Still Hung Up On Old Assumptions

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Based on the correlation between revenue and China’s online retail sales, we estimate Pinduoduo (PDD US)’s Q2 revenue to beat consensus by around RMB 2.4bn.
  • Our cost estimates translate the above revenue to an OP of RMB 4.0bn in 2Q22 compared to RMB 3.6bn for consensus.
  • Even though consensus seems to have over-corrected its 2Q22 assumptions, it is still hung up on old assumptions for the medium term.

CTG Duty Free (1880 HK): Our Earnings Forecasts and Views on H-Share Fair Value

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Our earnings projections for China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (1880 HK) are 14% and 18% below market consensus respectively. We think these are more realistic expectations.
  • At IPO price of HK$158, CDFC H-share sits on 23.9x FY23F PER. We think it is difficult to trade above 22x – the average for top consumer discretionary names.
  • Weakened visitor appetite to Sanya, potentially higher discounts, increase in border opening, higher fixed cost and uncertainties for duty free policies beyond 2025 are negative earnings factors.

Foot Locker Inc: Partnership With Adidas & Other Drivers

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Foot Locker has been working hard to reduce its dependence on Nike and offer a broader set offerings over its channels categories and brands that have been yielding positive results.
  • The partnership of Foot Locker with Puma continues to drive heat in the basketball categories as MB.01 remains the best-selling shoe in the company.
  • It now has the brand worldwide in 95 doors, and it continues to grow its presence of the brand with robust results.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Emperador, Yum China Holdings Inc, Bright Scholar Education, Oriental Land, Campus Activewear, Leapmotor, China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd, Tapestry Inc, Hyatt Hotels Corp Cl A, Lazbao Group and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • STI Index Rebalance Preview: Three Cheers for Emperador?
  • Yum China Pursues Primary Listing Conversion On The HKEx
  • Bright Scholar: Cheap Homecoming, Yet Limited Downside
  • Oriental Land: Consensus Is Not in Touch with Reality
  • Campus Activewear Amalgamation: Is It for Book Cleansing?
  • Leapmotor IPO: The Bull Case
  • China Tourism Group A/H Trading – Decent Support from Long-Only but Minimal Retail Participation
  • Tapestry Inc: Digital Sales Performance
  • Hyatt Hotels Corporation: Data-Driven Approach Through Knowland & Other Drivers
  • Chinese Ecommerce Provider Bags 8-Digit Million Series B

STI Index Rebalance Preview: Three Cheers for Emperador?

By Brian Freitas

  • We expect Emperador (EMI SP) to be added to the FTSE Straits Times Index at the September rebalance after meeting the free float, market cap and liquidity requirements. 
  • As the lowest ranked current index constituent, we expect Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP) will be deleted heaping pressure on the beleaguered stock with over 4 days of ADV to sell.
  • Emperador (EMP PM) is an inclusion to the FTSE All-World Index and there is a lot to buy on that line from passive trackers at the close on 16 September.

Yum China Pursues Primary Listing Conversion On The HKEx

By David Blennerhassett

  • Last week Yum China Holdings Inc (9987 HK)  announced it has applied for voluntary conversion to a primary listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
  • Should all necessary approvals from the HKEx be satisfied, Yum will become dual primary listed on the New York Stock Exchange and the HKEx.
  • This regulatory process, facilitated by rules introduced by the HKEx over the past year, enables the de-listing of the ADRs and the smooth transition to a sole HK listing.

Bright Scholar: Cheap Homecoming, Yet Limited Downside

By David Blennerhassett

  • Bright Scholar Education (BEDU US) (BSE), an operator of schools across China, the UK, and the US, received an Offer earlier this year from Huiyan Yang, the chairperson.
  • Yang is offering US$3.32/ADS – adjusted for the recent reverse split – a 44% premium to the undisturbed price. 
  • Yang controls 92.5% of the votes. There is no shareholder vote on this transaction should a firm Offer unfold.

Oriental Land: Consensus Is Not in Touch with Reality

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • With Q1 park attendance falling short of expectations, it seems unlikely that Oriental Land (4661 JP) will beat FY23 guidance as expected by consensus.
  • The consensus medium outlook is also questionable as the management seems less keen on opening Fantasy Springs as soon as possible.
  • At over 29.2x EV/consensus FY27 OP (56.5x at LSR-FY27-OP), on exaggerated medium-term growth targets, Oriental Land probably has more downside than some of the expensive tech names on the market.

Campus Activewear Amalgamation: Is It for Book Cleansing?

By Nitin Mangal

  • Campus Activewear (CAMPUS IN) has received the court’s approval for amalgamation of Campus AI Pvt Ltd into the standalone entity.
  • Amidst the plethora of positive rationale for the amalgamation, the one that stands out from the rest is the cleaning up of the books of campus activewear. 
  • With the amalgamation scheme, the company also gets rid of the negative capital reserve balance. Is this the only adjustment, or are there more things to clean?

Leapmotor IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • Leapmotor (2007699D HK), a Chinese EV manufacturer, will start its listing hearing for a US$1.5 billion HKEx IPO this week, according to press reports.
  • Leapmotor ranked fifth among the global pure-play EV companies and fourth among the pure-play EV companies based in China as measured by sales volume in 2021. 
  • The key elements of the bull case rest on a solid roadmap, executive capabilities, explosive growth, declining loss margin and declining FCF burn.

China Tourism Group A/H Trading – Decent Support from Long-Only but Minimal Retail Participation

By Sumeet Singh

  • China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) raised around US$2.4bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong, after pricing its IPO at HKD158/share.
  • As per Frost & Sullivan, CDF had 92.3% market share by retail revenue in China duty-free merchandise sales in 2020.
  • In this note, we talk about the deal pricing and the trading dynamics.

Tapestry Inc: Digital Sales Performance

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Despite the difficult climate, Tapestry’s financial performance in the recent quarter was decent.
  • It failed to meet revenue expectations of the Wall Street but managed to produce an earnings beat.
  • AUR growth for handbags worldwide increased by about 20% due to this outstanding performance, intentional reductions in promotional activities, and tactical price increases.

Hyatt Hotels Corporation: Data-Driven Approach Through Knowland & Other Drivers

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Hyatt witnessed a strong recovery in group and business transient demand and saw strong levels of leisure demand.
  • The management is on track to turn the high leisure demand into high rate realization, capitalize on fee increases, and enable margin expansion.
  • The Hyatt management is adopting an increasingly data-driven approach and recently expanded their relationship with Knowland to deliver value across its portfolio.

Chinese Ecommerce Provider Bags 8-Digit Million Series B

By Tech in Asia

  • China-based Lazbao Group, an integrated service provider, has closed its series B round, raising “tens of millions of dollars.”
  • Lazbao provides ecommerce services to Southeast Asia, offering supply chain management, ecommerce operations, warehousing, logistics, marketing, cross-border payments, and a digital enterprise resource planning system.
  • It has operations in Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Fast Retailing, The Pinkfong Company, Ford Motor Co, Melco Resorts & Entertainment, Darden Restaurants, Domino’s Pizza, WM Motor Technology Co Ltd, Golden Eagle Retail and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Fast Retailing: The Fast Retailing to Topix Ratio Hitting Resistance Near The Pre-COVID Peak
  • The Pinkfong Company: Baby Shark Unicorn in Korea
  • Ford Motor Company: Divestment Of India Unit & Other Developments
  • Melco Resorts – Earnings Flash – Q2 FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Darden Restaurants Inc.: Growth Strategy
  • Domino’s Pizza: Sources of Competitive Advantage
  • WM Motor Holding IPO – The Positives – Fast Growth Driven by Its SUV and Mainstream Focus
  • Morning Views Asia: Golden Eagle Retail, KWG Living Group

Fast Retailing: The Fast Retailing to Topix Ratio Hitting Resistance Near The Pre-COVID Peak

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Fast Retailing (9983 JP)  has rallied 60% during the last three-months on better-than-expected Q3 performance and a relatively strong bounce in Topix exceeding the upper-end of the trend-channel by 3%.
  • Although 20% below the all-time high, reached during the COVID pandemic, the Fast Retailing to Topix  ratio is currently near the pre-COVID peak and starting to show some resistance.
  • We would look to short Fast Retailing  with expectations of weakness in overseas markets such as North America and Europe in addition to the already struggling Chinese market.

The Pinkfong Company: Baby Shark Unicorn in Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • The Pinkfong Company was valued at about 1 trillion won, according to local reports in early 2022. Samsung Publishing (068290 KS) owns a 16.8% stake in The Pink Fong company.
  • For now, The Pinkfong Company does not have any near term plans for an IPO. However, it may try to complete its IPO sometime in 2023/2024.
  • The Pinkfong Company’s sales increased by nearly 500% in the US to reach 24.9 billion in 2021, accounting for 30% of the company’s total sales in 2021.

Ford Motor Company: Divestment Of India Unit & Other Developments

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Ford performed well during the second quarter despite a difficult environment that included supply chain disruptions, numerous new economic challenges, and general uncertainty.
  • It managed to surpass Wall Street expectations in terms of both, revenues as well as earnings.
  • The Ford+ strategy, which is Ford’s best chance to add value since they scaled the Model T, is why they achieved these achievements.

Melco Resorts – Earnings Flash – Q2 FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Melco Resorts’ Q2/22 results were in line with our expectations. Positively, the company’s overseas assets (in the Philippines and Cyprus) reported strong revenue growth and positive EBITDA, which partly offset the very weak performance in Macau. In addition, the company’s liquidity is strongest among peers, with sufficient cash and availability under its credit facility to last 22 months in a zero-revenue scenario. We expect the company’s expansionary capex to be curtailed in 2023 (after the remaining USD 250 mn of capex for Studio City Phase 2). That said, we view negatively MLCO’s small share repurchases.


Darden Restaurants Inc.: Growth Strategy

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Darden Restaurants delivered a decent quarterly result exceeding sales expectations and having fairly good earnings despite the highly inflationary environment.
  • The 2022 fiscal has been good for the company despite the impact of the Omicron variant as its brands continue to strengthen their business models.
  • While LongHorn and other business segments saw lower segment profit margins in the last quarter due to higher inflation levels and other investments made in those businesses since pre-COVID, Olive Garden and Fine Dining segments saw segment profit margin growth this quarter.

Domino’s Pizza: Sources of Competitive Advantage

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Given the impact of inflationary headwinds, Domino’s has been working out ways to improve its consumer pricing architecture in the U.S.
  • The management saw the average price rise close to 6% in the last quarter which helped the company surpass revenue expectations of Wall Street.
  • In the new season of Stranger Things, they also introduced their Mind Ordering app, which offered a new ordering experience.

WM Motor Holding IPO – The Positives – Fast Growth Driven by Its SUV and Mainstream Focus

By Sumeet Singh

  • WM Motor Technology Co Ltd (WMT CH) (WMM) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • WM Motor is a smart EV player in China. As of the latest practicable date, it had a total of four main EV models. 
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Morning Views Asia: Golden Eagle Retail, KWG Living Group

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Consumer: Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt, Haier Smart Home Co Ltd, Signa Sports United, Alibaba Group, GameStop and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • FTSE All-World/​​All-Cap Index Rebalance: Changes, Switches, Hits & Misses
  • Hang Seng Tech Rebalance – No Name Changes But Lots of Flow
  • Will This De-SPAC Be The Next Peloton?
  • China Internet Weekly (22Aug22): E-Commerce, Logistics, Online Game, Food Delivery
  • RC Ventures Sold Its Entire Stake In Bed, Bath & Beyond. Is GameStop Next?

FTSE All-World/​​All-Cap Index Rebalance: Changes, Switches, Hits & Misses

By Brian Freitas


Hang Seng Tech Rebalance – No Name Changes But Lots of Flow

By Travis Lundy

  • The Hang Seng Index Team announced the index review for the Hang Seng Tech Index Friday after the close. There were no additions or deletions.
  • However, there is a 4.9% one-way turnover on reasonably heavy FAF and capping changes. Sensetime sees a huge FAF increase. Tencent, Meituan, and Kuaishou get re-capped higher. Xiaomi lower.
  • There is a fair bit of flow, but the obvious big name – SenseTime Group (20 HK) – has potential overhang. Watch Haier Smart Home Co Ltd (6690 HK)

Will This De-SPAC Be The Next Peloton?

By subSPAC

  • Pandemic darling Peloton saw a meteoric rise and fall over the past two years.
  • The company initially benefited from soaring demand, but overestimated demand and eventually leading to a fire sale and massive layoffs.
  • German sports e-commerce retailer Signa Sports United, which went public through a SPAC deal last year, could face a similar fate in the coming months.

China Internet Weekly (22Aug22): E-Commerce, Logistics, Online Game, Food Delivery

By Ming Lu

  • Logistics companies’ revenue grew by over 10%, which reflects the recovery of e-commerce.
  • The market size of Chinese online game continued to shrink in July.
  • Alibaba’s Ele.me sets up a mini-program on TikTok to fight Meituan.

RC Ventures Sold Its Entire Stake In Bed, Bath & Beyond. Is GameStop Next?

By Andrei Zakharov

  • GameStop (GME US)  shares have materially outperformed the Nasdaq and S&P 500. GameStop shares fell ~2% YTD vs. Nasdaq (~-19%) and S&P 500 (~-11%). 
  • RC Ventures, controlled by GameStop Chairman Mr. Ryan Cohen, holds a ~12% stake in the struggling video game retailer. The company announced a 4-for-1 stock split in July.  
  • GameStop reported a record net loss of $158M and burned through ~$311M in cash in 1QFY22. We continue to believe the stock is massively overvalued and see downside potential. 

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Daily Brief Consumer: The Walt Disney Co and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Walt Disney Company: The HYBE Partnership

Walt Disney Company: The HYBE Partnership

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Disney delivered another all-around beat and its strong results were driven by a stellar performance at its domestic theme parks, increases in live sports viewership across its linear channels and ESPN+, and significant subscriber growth at its streaming services.
  • The company had 221 million subscribers overall as of the end of the third quarter for its streaming service finally surpassing rival Netflix.
  • Their results demonstrate the Walt Disney Company’s potential to power its ecosystem and explore development prospects across industries and distribution channels thanks to its distinctively diversified businesses.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Chow Tai Fook Jewellery, Nikkei 225, The Walt Disney Co, SOCAR, Kraft Heinz Co, Deliveroo, Tyson Foods Inc Cl A and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HSI Index Rebalance: Another Small Step Towards 80 Members, But BIG Impact
  • Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples
  • Disney: Don’t Listen to Loeb
  • SoCar IPO Trading – Weak Subscription Rates and Remains Overvalued
  • Kraft Heinz Co: New Product Launch & Other Drivers
  • Deliveroo Has £1B+ Of Dry Powder; The Stock Is Undervalued, £75M Buyback Will Reassure Investors
  • Tyson Foods Inc: The Tanmiah Food Partnership & Other Drivers

HSI Index Rebalance: Another Small Step Towards 80 Members, But BIG Impact

By Brian Freitas


Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

By Joe Jasper

  • The theme we have seen over the past four weeks is an increasing number of indexes reversing 4-10-month downtrends and/or breaking above important resistance levels, with no failed breakouts.
  • We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but the real test will come during the eventual pullback, which we believe we are now experiencing.
  • We are watching to see whether these breakout levels and important moving averages (e.g., 50-day MAs) will hold.

Disney: Don’t Listen to Loeb

By Aaron Gabin

  • This week, Thirdpoint’s Dan Loeb wrote a letter to Disney asking it to cut costs, spin ESPN, and buy in Hulu.
  • We agreed with Loeb two years ago, but don’t see the strategic rationale this time around…Disney isn’t bloated, needs ESPN’s FCF, and doesn’t need to spend $9B on Hulu today.
  • We do agree with Loeb’s points about not reinstating the dividend (better use of FCF on Disney + and other investments) and refreshing a (strangely weird) Board of Directors.

SoCar IPO Trading – Weak Subscription Rates and Remains Overvalued

By Ethan Aw

  • SOCAR (403550 KS) raised around US$78m in its South Korea IPO, after the deal was priced at 28,000 KRW/share, below the bottom end of its initial IPO price range. 
  • Subscription rates for SoCar have been tepid, and previous deals with similar subscription rates as that of SoCar have had poor debuts, closing -8.2% on average. 
  • The lack of instis opting for lockup will likely result in a selldown given its weak fundamentals and lofty valuations. 

Kraft Heinz Co: New Product Launch & Other Drivers

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Kraft Heinz delivered outstanding second-quarter results.
  • The company is aware of the Despite the effects of the current inflationary environment on Kraft Heinz’s business, the company delivered a solid result, surpassing Wall Street expectations in terms of both, revenues and earnings.
  • Overall, we are neutral on Kraft Heinz we give them a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Deliveroo Has £1B+ Of Dry Powder; The Stock Is Undervalued, £75M Buyback Will Reassure Investors

By Andrei Zakharov

  • The food-delivery company Deliveroo (ROO LN)  initiated the stock buyback program and will purchase up to £75M worth of shares to reassure investors. 
  • Deliveroo (ROO LN)  is down ~77% from the IPO price as Covid lockdown restrictions have ended and revenue growth slowed significantly. 
  • Deliveroo (ROO LN)  currently trades at 0.1x EV/2022E GMV, a discount relative to its key peers that trade at an average of 0.3x EV/2022E GMV.  

Tyson Foods Inc: The Tanmiah Food Partnership & Other Drivers

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Tyson Foods delivered mixed third-quarter result surpassing revenue expectations as a result of the price increases but failed to meet Wall Street expectations with respect to earnings given the inflationary pressures.
  • In order to counteract the rise in the cost of goods, the company implemented pricing efforts, which resulted in an increase in sales for the entire year.
  • Among major updates, Tyson entered into a joint venture agreement with the Saudi Arabian Tanmiah Food Company.

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