Category

Consumer

Daily Brief Consumer: Yamada Denki, Las Vegas Sands, Ambev SA, Arcland Service and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Yamada Denki, Genting, HKBN, Toyo Construction
  • Las Vegas Sands: Starting a Run as Macau Recovery Gains Speed. Up 23% YTD.
  • Ambev S.A.: Major Drivers
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Silk Laser, Arcland, Essential Metals, AAG, Lian Beng, Oishi

Last Week in Event SPACE: Yamada Denki, Genting, HKBN, Toyo Construction

By David Blennerhassett

  • Yamada Denki (9831 JP) lowering the March 2023 div to ¥12/share vs ¥18/share last year was just weird. And bodes badly. We need a lightbulb moment for a lightbulb dilemma.
  • Genting Bhd (GENT MK)‘s implied stub and simple ratio (GENT/ Genting Singapore (GENS SP)) are currently at muti-year trough levels. 
  • Buy Toyo Construction (1890 JP) <¥970. The proposed dividend could be in danger should YFO spill the board; but spilling the board to get better governance is a good thing. 

Las Vegas Sands: Starting a Run as Macau Recovery Gains Speed. Up 23% YTD.

By Howard J Klein

  • LVS just reported 1Q23 results showing a surging recovery of GGR and daily arrivals in Macau driving gains in revenue and profit profile.
  • Labor shortages that have limited availability of LVS’ 12,000 rooms are beginning to subside. Golden Week just ahead expected to reach +90% room occupancy.
  • Stock has moved over 20% since our buy call at $53. Our PT is raised to $80.

Ambev S.A.: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Ambev delivered mixed results in Q4.
  • The company saw a 1.5% increase in volumes though its revenues were below Wall Street expectations.
  • Also, despite the impact of inflationary pressures on Ambev’s expenditures and expenses, normalized EBITDA increased in the quarter and the company delivered an earnings beat.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Silk Laser, Arcland, Essential Metals, AAG, Lian Beng, Oishi

By David Blennerhassett


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Daily Brief Consumer: Dongwon Industries, Ts Corporation, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Coca Cola Co, Etsy Inc, Inter Parfums and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Aggressive Shorting on Dongwon Industries, Which Has Not Been Noticed as a K200 Deletion
  • Korea Small Cap Gem #21: TS Corp – Addicted to Sugar
  • To Change a Company that Didn’t Change when Activist Investors Asked for Solutions to Their Issues
  • Coca-Cola Q1 Earnings Preview: Factors To Consider
  • Etsy Inc.: Major Drivers
  • IPAR: Demand Outpacing Expectations

Aggressive Shorting on Dongwon Industries, Which Has Not Been Noticed as a K200 Deletion

By Sanghyun Park

  • Dongwon Industries’ float rate is less than 10% (1 – 63.15% – 27.65% = 9.20%), which makes it ineligible for KOSPI 200. KRX will reflect this in the June review.
  • The passive outflow size due to K200 deletion is expected to be about 50 billion won, which will cause an impact of about 28x ADTV.
  • Considering this deletion has not been sufficiently exposed in the market, the actual price impact may be even more significant and preemptive.

Korea Small Cap Gem #21: TS Corp – Addicted to Sugar

By Douglas Kim

  • Ts Corporation (001790 KS) is the 21st company in our Korea Small Cap Gems series.
  • TS Corp is one of the largest sugar refining companies in Korea. Rising raw sugar prices generally have a positive impact on TS Corp’s sales and profits. 
  • TS Corp owns very valuable real estate assets that are much larger than its current market cap (299 billion won).

To Change a Company that Didn’t Change when Activist Investors Asked for Solutions to Their Issues

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Now that percentage of foreign shareholders has reached 30%, other foreign shareholders are more likely to support activist investors’ proposals, and companies are paying more attention to communication with investors.
  • While cross-shareholdings held by banks etc. are declining, foreign shareholders and trust banks are on the rise. The holdings held by trust banks are managed by domestic institutional investors.
  • Whether their exercise of voting rights changes from the past will be the key to improving governance and moving forward with solutions to issues that have been postponed until now.

Coca-Cola Q1 Earnings Preview: Factors To Consider

By Pearl Gray Equity and Research

  • Inflationary headwinds in Latin America might have had a material effect in Q1.
  • However, Coca-Cola’s EMEA and North American results will probably blossom once more.
  • Most are non-core and unlikely to influence the stock’s valuation, KO stock is fairly valued.

Etsy Inc.: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Etsy Inc delivered a mixed set of results during the quarter and managed to surpass the revenue expectations of analysts but its profitability was below par.
  • The company’s management claims that its overall reach and consumer demand have increased and the services offered by the company are differentiated.
  • The company’s marketing programs, including the Star Seller program, continued to benefit the company.

IPAR: Demand Outpacing Expectations

By Hamed Khorsand

  • IPAR announced its first quarter sales highlighting the continued momentum in demand the Company has been seeing in recent quarters. 
  • IPAR’s major brands each grew by more than 20 percent compared to the year ago period. 
  • IPAR raised full year sales and EPS outlook as the business continues to run with brisk demand

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Daily Brief Consumer: Seven & I Holdings, Silk Laser Australia, Xiabuxiabu Catering, China Mengniu Dairy Co, L’Oreal SA, S&P 500 INDEX, The Keepers Holdings, Cia Brasileira de Distribuicao -Sp Prf, Yerbae Brands and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Seven & I: Founder’s Death Fuels Value Act’s Activism, Angers The Board, Reduces Short Thesis Risk
  • Wesfarmer’s Non-Binding Offer For Silk
  • China Catering Sector: Long Xiabuxiabu / Short Jiumaojiu
  • HSCEI Stocks to Buy at a Material Discount – Targeted Buying Levels in 2319 HK / 2020 HK / 9888 HK
  • L’Oréal: +13% Since Initial Note. Strong Q1 Despite a Flattish China.
  • Favor Defensives as S&P 500 Tests 4165-4200; Buys in Consumer Staples & Europe/UK Telecomm
  • Keepers Holdings: Q4 2022 Concall, Reiterate Positive Outlook for 2023
  • CBD – When The Catalyst Is Slapping You in the Face
  • YERB.U: Challenger Brand in Secular Growth Industry

Seven & I: Founder’s Death Fuels Value Act’s Activism, Angers The Board, Reduces Short Thesis Risk

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Value Act’s investor activism campaign picked up steam following the death of Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) founder.
  • The board of Seven & I may have been aggravated by Value Act’s unreasonable demands and timing, leading to their first angry response in over two years.
  • The damaged relationship between Seven & I and Value Act reduces the upside risk to our short thesis from disposal of underperforming businesses.

Wesfarmer’s Non-Binding Offer For Silk

By David Blennerhassett

  • Wesfarmers Ltd (WES AU) has made a non-binding indicative Offer, by way of a Scheme, for Silk Laser Australia (SLA AU), an operator of specialist clinic networks across Australia. 
  • The Offer Price of $3.15/share is a decent 30.2% premium to last close. Wilson Asset Management, with 9.3% of shares out, is supportive. 
  • Wesfarmers has been granted 30 days to undertake due diligence on an exclusive basis.

China Catering Sector: Long Xiabuxiabu / Short Jiumaojiu

By Eric Chen

  • We believe the recovery of China consumption is “not yet solid”, but not faltering.
  • China catering sector’s recovery stays on track, although Q2 has historically been a low season.
  • Long Xiabuxiabu and short Jiumaojiu to play the sector’s recovery while hedging against potential macro weakness.

HSCEI Stocks to Buy at a Material Discount – Targeted Buying Levels in 2319 HK / 2020 HK / 9888 HK

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.
  • China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd (2319 HK), ANTA Sports Products Ltd (2020 HK) and Baidu Inc (9888 HK) are all trading at significant discounts to 2023 highs and LT highs.
  • Today we highlight targeted support levels / buying opportunities in the coming 1-2 days in 2319 HK, 1-3 weeks in 2020 HK and 1-3 months in 9888 HK). 

L’Oréal: +13% Since Initial Note. Strong Q1 Despite a Flattish China.

By Alexis Dwek

  • Q1 20223 sales exceed expectations with LFL sales growth of 13.0% versus consensus of 7.3%. 
  • L’Oréal is ideally positioned in all regions, across all pricing points.
  • China impact post-reopening still to be seen in figures. We expect upside from China in H2

Favor Defensives as S&P 500 Tests 4165-4200; Buys in Consumer Staples & Europe/UK Telecomm

By Joe Jasper

  • The S&P 500 is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023, but we also acknowledge that a move to 4300-4325 is possible
  • Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives, particularly Health Care (XLV), Utilities (RYU, XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), and precious metals miners (GDX)
  • 10-Year and 30-Year Treasury yields testing short-term resistance while the US dollar (DXY) tests support at $101-101.50.

Keepers Holdings: Q4 2022 Concall, Reiterate Positive Outlook for 2023

By Sameer Taneja

  • The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) reported 26% YoY revenue growth and 41% YoY profit growth for FY22. Based on our estimates, the stock trades at 7.7x/6.6x FY23e/24e PE.
  • Net cash represents a healthy 21% of market capitalization, and given its strong profitability, the management seemed reasonably confident in maintaining its 50% payout ratio (5%/6% dividend yield FY24e/25e).
  • The management guided a structural industry uptrend with teens growth across all its spirits for FY23e/24e. We believe a multiple of 15x is a fair multiple for this company. 

CBD – When The Catalyst Is Slapping You in the Face

By Superfluous Value

  • I recently made my first purchase for the year, buying a core position in Brazilian holdco Companhia Brasileira de Distribuição (CBD:NYSE).
  • I believe it has merely been caught up in the general market/SIVB sell-off and the price being offered is too good to pass up.
  • CBD is engaged in supermarket/retailing operations and is controlled by the French giant Casino, with 41% ownership.

YERB.U: Challenger Brand in Secular Growth Industry

By Atrium Research

  • Yerbaé has been posting accelerating sales growth (+124% YoY in Q1E), using its diversified and growing distribution network which covers over 10,000 retail doors across the U.S.
  • CEO Todd Gibson is a beverage industry veteran, having experience at Hansen’s Energy (Monster), SoBe, FUZE Beverage, and Coca Cola
  • YERB.U is trading at 3.0x 2024E sales compared to high-growth peers at 5.9x, despite having the highest sales growth and gross margins Yerbaé Brands Corp. (YERB.U:TSXV) produces energy drinks using plant-based ingredients, tailored to health-conscious active lifestyle consumers.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Astra International, Miniso, Leapmotor, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, RCI Hospitality Holdings, Lear Corp, Fit Hub, Monster Beverage, Darden Restaurants and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Astra International (ASII IJ) – A Solid Start with Data in Mind
  • Miniso: Investors Turning a Blind Eye to Red Flags in Miniso
  • Leapmotor: In Desperate Straits..
  • Modest ROE Growth Expected to Increase Shareholder Proposals for Higher Shareholder Returns
  • Sales Accelerate in March Resulting in a Revenue Beat; Multiple Growth Catalysts in Place
  • Lear Corporation: Benefits From Kongsberg Acquisition – Key Drivers
  • Fit Hub Banks $6.5m to Make Exercise More Affordable
  • Monster Beverages Corp: Continued Supply Chain Challenges – Key Drivers
  • Darden Restaurants Inc.: Digital Growth

Astra International (ASII IJ) – A Solid Start with Data in Mind

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Astra International (ASII IJ) registered a strong start to the year with strong growth across most of its major divisions in 1Q2023, including 4W, 2W, Financial Services, and Heavy Equipment. 
  • The company’s market share in the auto business remained stable and increased for motorcycles, whilst heavy equipment and mining benefited from higher coal prices and infrastructure improving revenues on toll-roads.
  • Astra has launched a new JV with Equinix to build data centres in Indonesia, which makes an interesting addition to its digital economy exposure. Valuations are attractive relative to history. 

Miniso: Investors Turning a Blind Eye to Red Flags in Miniso

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Despite a 15% drop in March 2023, Miniso (MNSO US) remains relatively expensive compared to peers, having rallied 330% between October 2022 and March 2023.
  • We think this is a good opportunity to short MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK) as we see around 35% downside purely from a valuation angle.
  • Meanwhile, red flags like insider selling, Blue Orca’s accusations, senior management departures, and a mature domestic market could send the share price back below $5.0.

Leapmotor: In Desperate Straits..

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Several news media outlets reported that Leapmotor (9863 HK) had inflated its sales data for December 2022 based on distributor claims.
  • With China ending its new energy vehicle subsidy policy in 2022, EV makers were rushing to sell as many units as possible before embracing price hikes and face competition.
  • The company announced a price hike in January and sales volumes have declined in 1Q2023. We think the company will struggle to increase its sales volume going forward.

Modest ROE Growth Expected to Increase Shareholder Proposals for Higher Shareholder Returns

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The fact that there is a certain correlation between ROE+DOE and TOPIX reconfirms that it’s effective to ask management to improve performance in terms of both profitability and shareholder return.
  • While % change in shareholders’ equity moves in line with % of change in net profit, dividend payout moves moves differently. Many companies still adopt a “stable dividend” policy.
  • If shareholders propose share repurchases, dividend increases, etc., it can be said that management has determined that the shareholder return (ROE+DOE) it has secured is not sufficient.

Sales Accelerate in March Resulting in a Revenue Beat; Multiple Growth Catalysts in Place

By Water Tower Research

  • Following the company’s fiscal 2Q sales release, our thesis remains intact.
  • We are encouraged by the improving sales trends RCI experienced in March and early April.
  • Further, we see several catalysts on the horizon to provide for accelerating growth over the next 12-18 months.

Lear Corporation: Benefits From Kongsberg Acquisition – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Lear had a strong quarterly performance and managed an all-around beat.
  • Its sales increased by 10% to $5.4 billion, and core operating profitability rose by 67% to $265 million.
  • The Lear Forward initiative also improved the company’s cash flow performance.

Fit Hub Banks $6.5m to Make Exercise More Affordable

By Tech in Asia

  • Living a healthy lifestyle can be burdensome and expensive. Indonesian startup Fit Hub is on a mission to democratize health for middle- and low-income households in Indonesia by offering affordable gym memberships.
  • In Indonesia, the average membership costs US$50 per month, while the startup charges US$17.
  • Since being founded in 2020, Fit Hub has opened up 60 offline clubs across 14 cities in Indonesia. It plans to open 100 clubs by the end of the year.

Monster Beverages Corp: Continued Supply Chain Challenges – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Monster Beverages’ last result was a colossal disappointment as the company faced challenges meeting the increased demand for its products due to the rampant supply chain issues.
  • Despite these issues, the company reported a 3.1% increase in operating income, driven by increased input costs and selling expenses.
  • The company saw positive results from its Java Monster line, with increased sales and increased share in its coffee plus energy category.

Darden Restaurants Inc.: Digital Growth

By Baptista Research

  • Darden Restaurants had a strong quarter and exceeded the market expectations with respect to the top and bottom lines.
  • Despite an 8% increase in hourly wages, restaurant labor was 120 basis points better than the previous year due to sales leverage.
  • Since Darden used higher revenues to leverage higher inflation on utilities and higher repairs and maintenance costs, restaurant expenses were 40 basis points better than the previous year.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Alibaba Group, Yamada Denki, ZJLD Group, Oishi Group PCL, Anta Sports Products, British American Tobacco PLC, Collplant Biotechnologies , Pointerra Ltd, Colgate Palmolive Co, XWELL and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba (9988 HK): “Department One” in Reorganization
  • Yamada Denki (9831) Buyback Almost Done and Odd Dividend “Cut”, and a Lightbulb Dilemma
  • ZJLD Group (6979 HK): Index Inclusion Possibility & Timelines
  • Oishi Group: IFA Backs ThaiBev’s Offer
  • Anta Sports (2020 HK): Our View After Placement
  • British American Tobacco: New Category Growth
  • 10 in 10 with H2G Green – The Pivot to Green Hydrogen
  • Pointerra – Investment in Human Capital Signals a Step-Change
  • Colgate-Palmolive Co: Improved Focus On Pet Nutrition & Whitening – Key Drivers
  • 4Q22 Results Slightly Better than Expected; Business Transformation Continues in 2023

Alibaba (9988 HK): “Department One” in Reorganization

By Ming Lu

  • Alibaba broke down Taobao Tmall Center, the most important department, into three departments.
  • Industry Development Department One is actually “other businesses” after the reorganization.
  • Following Department One will help investors to understand Alibaba’s financials.

Yamada Denki (9831) Buyback Almost Done and Odd Dividend “Cut”, and a Lightbulb Dilemma

By Travis Lundy

  • In May 2022, Yamada Denki (9831 JP) announced a very large buyback. GINORMOUS – in fact – at 23.9% of shares out ex-Treasury if maximum shares were bought.
  • So far, YDH is 83.5% through, and at the recent pace, they will end it 8 May having bought 183-184mm shares (21.9% of TSO) spending 86.6% of funds allocated.
  • That’s why the announcement lowering the March 2023 div to ¥12/share vs ¥18/share last year was just weird. And bodes badly. We need a lightbulb moment for a lightbulb dilemma.

ZJLD Group (6979 HK): Index Inclusion Possibility & Timelines

By Brian Freitas

  • ZJLD Group (ZJLD HK) is looking to raise between US$775m-US$933m (including the oversubscription option) in its IPO by selling 564.3m shares at a price range of HK$10.78-HK$12.98/share.
  • ZJLD Group (ZJLD HK) will not get Fast Entry to any indices but should be added to the HSCI and Stock Connect in September.
  • Peer performance has not been great this year and that could weigh on the ZJLD Group (ZJLD HK) listing.

Oishi Group: IFA Backs ThaiBev’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 10th March, Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) proposed taking 79.66%-held Oishi Group PCL (OISHI TB) private, at an Offer price of THB 59/share, a 26.9% premium to last close. 
  • This Delisting Offer requires a shareholder vote which will take place on the 3<May. Payment may occur mid-to-late August. 
  • In its report yesterday, the IFA reckons “that the shareholders should approve of the voluntary delisting“.

Anta Sports (2020 HK): Our View After Placement

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The new share placement of Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) has caught the market by surprise, but we think long-term story for the company should not be affected.
  • With proceeds to be used for repayment of outstanding debts, expansion in China and pursuing SE Asia markets, we should not overlook the benefits to be generated. 
  • An IPO of Amer Sports is clearly brewing and this represents an important catalyst. Anta’s 26.4x and 20.9x FY23 and FY24 PERs do not look stretched relative to earnings growth. 

British American Tobacco: New Category Growth

By Baptista Research

  • British American Tobacco delivered decent financial results and successfully navigated a progressively challenging macro environment.
  • In New Categories, the company delivered strong revenue growth driven by Geo expansion, innovation, and share growth.
  • British American Tobacco launched the first connected Vapour device of the Group, Vuse ePod2 plus, that drives increased pod consumption.

10 in 10 with H2G Green – The Pivot to Green Hydrogen

By Geoff Howie

10 in 10 with H2G Green – The Pivot to Green Hydrogen

Pointerra – Investment in Human Capital Signals a Step-Change

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Pointerra Ltd (ASX:3DP) provides a powerful cloud-based solution (Pointerra3D) for managing, visualising, analysing, using, and sharing massive 3D point clouds and datasets.
  • The company has taken a highly manual, slow, and cost-prohibitive process and turned it into a fast, efficient workflow solution for 3D data, enabling digital asset management from any device in any location.
  • The Pointerra3D suite of solutions spans target sectors including survey and mapping; architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC); utilities; transport; resources; and defence and intelligence. 

Colgate-Palmolive Co: Improved Focus On Pet Nutrition & Whitening – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Colgate entered 2023 on a positive note with decent top-line momentum and delivered an all-around beat in the last result.
  • The company saw good growth in organic sales in four categories which include double-digit growth in organic sales in Pet Nutrition.
  • Colgate, is launching the Optic White Pro Series and its new MPS whitening technology all over the world.

4Q22 Results Slightly Better than Expected; Business Transformation Continues in 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • XWELL reported 2022 results that were slightly better than preliminary results issued on March 30.
  • Revenues for the quarter were $7.5 million, with $4.5 million coming from the spa business (XpresSpa and Treat), $2.6 million from the CDC program and the one remaining XpresCheck location, and $.5 million from HyperPointe.
  • While 1Q is usually a slower quarter for the travel industry, we expect the company to continue to focus on improving the profitability of its spa business primarily through the closure of a few stores that don’t contribute to profitability.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Anta Sports Products, Nitori Holdings, Genting Bhd, ZJLD Group, Oishi Group PCL, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Nike, Seven & I Holdings, Walgreens Boots Alliance and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Anta Sports Placement – A Large Deal to Digest with Unknown Use of Proceeds but Track Record Is Good
  • Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 Rebalance Gets Interestinger – Possible Fast Retailing Cap and Zozo Stretch
  • StubWorld: Genting Berhad Is Cheap
  • ZJLD Group IPO – Sentiment Could See a Positive Shift, Mid-Bottom End Digestible
  • ZJLD Group IPO: Valuation Insights
  • Oishi Group (OISHI TB): IFA Recommends the THB59.00 Delisting Offer
  • Maintaining Labor Productivity by Cutting Working Hours Was Effective but Risks Should Be Considered
  • Nike Inc.: Continued Franchise Expansion
  • Seven & I: The Biggest Barrier to Change Has Gone
  • Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc.: Advancements In Healthcare & Key Drivers

Anta Sports Placement – A Large Deal to Digest with Unknown Use of Proceeds but Track Record Is Good

By Sumeet Singh

  • Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)  aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its top-up placement. 
  • Anta hasn’t specified what it aims to do with the money that it’s looking to raise, furthermore, it’s already net cash.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 Rebalance Gets Interestinger – Possible Fast Retailing Cap and Zozo Stretch

By Travis Lundy

  • With 3.5 months left in the dataset, the data is pretty close to settled. The interesting bits are elsewhere. There are three auto DELETEs and two auto ADDs. Maybe.
  • One auto-ADD is Toshiba, which may have a deal on it. That leaves two to add for sector balance. That could be Nitori (9843 JP) and Zozo (3092 JP).
  • Friday’s move on Fast Retailing brings in the issue of the new capping function. That would be a different US$2bn selldown. Lots of gory details here. 

StubWorld: Genting Berhad Is Cheap

By David Blennerhassett

  • Genting Bhd (GENT MK)‘s implied stub and the simple ratio (GENT / Genting Singapore (GENS SP)) are at multi-year lows.
  • Preceding my comments on Genting are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

ZJLD Group IPO – Sentiment Could See a Positive Shift, Mid-Bottom End Digestible

By Clarence Chu

  • ZJLD Group (ZJLD HK) is looking to raise around US$811m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • ZJLD Group (ZJLD) is a Chinese liquor company primarily producing baijiu.
  • In this note, we will look at deal dynamics and share our thoughts on valuation.

ZJLD Group IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George


Oishi Group (OISHI TB): IFA Recommends the THB59.00 Delisting Offer

By Arun George

  • The Oishi Group PCL (OISHI TB) IFA opines that shareholders approve Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)’s delisting tender offer of THB59.00 per share at the EGM on 3 May.
  • The offer is conditional on Oishi shareholder approval which requires 75% approval by total outstanding shares and <10% rejection by total outstanding shares.
  • The offer is attractive to the IFA’s fair value of THB53.48-56.42 per share. At last close and the end-July completion, the gross and annualised spread is 2.2% and 8.1%, respectively.

Maintaining Labor Productivity by Cutting Working Hours Was Effective but Risks Should Be Considered

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Many companies have worked to ensure labour productivity by curbing personnel costs by reducing work hours and shifting from full-time to part-time workers, as well as by controlling depreciation.
  • Maintaining labor productivity by converting to part-time and reducing working hours of full-time employees has been an effective measure to ensure operating profits margins, but it also carries risks.
  • Personnel cost/sales have bottomed out in 2018 and are on the rise. With cost structures changing dramatically after the economic reopening, controlling labor costs will be more difficult than ever.

Nike Inc.: Continued Franchise Expansion

By Baptista Research

  • Nike delivered another strong quarter with revenue growth across all geographies, channels, and brands.
  • It had strong digital growth, fueled by increased traffic on its apps and mobile.
  • In APLA, the brand momentum of Nike continues to fuel strong growth.

Seven & I: The Biggest Barrier to Change Has Gone

By Michael Causton

  • Seven & I has announced major restructuring of its struggling Ito-Yokado GMS chain – a company that big investors have long demanded be sold off entirely. 
  • The latest round of cuts had to wait until the company’s founder finally passed away, although are likely not going to be the last.
  • Seven & I has long had a coherent plan to rationalise – but was just waiting for the founder to pass – with a series of disposals now likely.

Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc.: Advancements In Healthcare & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Walgreens Boots Alliance produced a strong second quarter which happened to be an all-around beat.
  • Also, this quarter served as a turning point in their transition to the healthcare industry.
  • Besides that, Boots had a fantastic quarter in the international segment, achieving retail comp growth of 16% over the same period last year.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Arcland Sakamoto, Lotte Shopping Co, Arrival Group and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Arclands (9842) Overpays for Arclands Service Holdings (3085)
  • Aiming for Price Movement Patterns with Low Market Exposure in MSCI Korea May Review
  • Riding the Re-SPAC Wave

Arclands (9842) Overpays for Arclands Service Holdings (3085)

By Travis Lundy

  • On Friday Arcland Sakamoto (9842 JP) and restaurant franchise subsidiary Arcland Service (3085 JP), which it launched in 1993 and IPOed in 2007, announced they had agreed to merge. 
  • Arcland SHD runs 18 restaurant brands, of which Katsuya is most well-known, with a total of 750 or so restaurants managed globally. It has grown consistently.
  • The merger ratio is at an all-time high for Arcland SHD. This should be a done deal but I might expect some complaints. I think Arclands is probably overpaying. 

Aiming for Price Movement Patterns with Low Market Exposure in MSCI Korea May Review

By Sanghyun Park

  • We should aim for price movement patterns with relatively low market exposure. One of them is the post-effective upward price movement of deletions.
  • The relative price performance for one week after the implementation compared to KOSPI 200 was consistently positive, ranging from 2.41% to 6.82%.
  • Given the recent price movement of four deletion candidates, there is again a high possibility that the price distortion caused by MSCI flow will revert after the effective date.

Riding the Re-SPAC Wave

By subSPAC

  • In the ever-changing landscape of SPACs, a new trend has emerged that has got investors talking: Re-SPACs.
  • Last week, electric vehicle startup Arrival announced its intention to Re-SPAC with Kensington Capital Acquisition Corp. V, signifying a growing interest among De-SPAC companies in exploring alternative capital-raising strategies.
  • Traditionally, SPACs have been a popular vehicle for ushering businesses into the public markets.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Tesla Motors, Arcland Service, Universal Entertainment, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Market Share Loss for Tesla Korea Accelerating in 1Q 2023
  • Arcland Service (3085 JP): Share Exchange Offer from Arclands Corp
  • Okada Casino Momentum Signals an Entry Point Despite Legal Woes with Its Spac Hedge Fund Deal
  • Activist Investors Have Been Consistent, but Environment Around Companies Has Changed Significantly

Market Share Loss for Tesla Korea Accelerating in 1Q 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • The fact that Tesla Korea is losing its market share significantly in Korea portends increased challenges for Tesla Motors on a global basis. 
  • The number of new Tesla vehicles registered in Korea was 1,303 units in 1Q 2023, down 52% YoY. 
  • In this insight, we provide three major reasons for Tesla’s market share losses in Korea. We also provide Tesla Korea’s 2022 results analysis.

Arcland Service (3085 JP): Share Exchange Offer from Arclands Corp

By Arun George

  • Arcland Service (3085 JP)/Arcland SHD has recommended Arcland Sakamoto (9842 JP)/Arclands’ share exchange offer at 1.87 Arclands shares per Archland SHD share.
  • The implied offer value of JPY3,051.84 per share at Arclands’ last close price is a 35.3% premium to the undisturbed price of JPY2,256.00 per share (14 April).
  • The offer requires Arcland OGM (25 May) and Arcland SHD EGM (22 June) shareholder approval. Arcland SHD shareholders will be supportive as the deal metrics are attractive.  

Okada Casino Momentum Signals an Entry Point Despite Legal Woes with Its Spac Hedge Fund Deal

By Howard J Klein

  • 26 Capital, a US hedge fund that has crafted an innovative spac deal to bring the leading Manila casino property into an IPO by this fall has stalled.
  • The overall tone of recovery in Philippine gaming in this early post-covid era is speeding up and expected to meet or surpass baseline 1919 growth easily.
  • We see an attractive entry point for Okada’s owner, Tokyo traded Universal Entertainment, based both on its strong performance and the ultimate success of the IPO.

Activist Investors Have Been Consistent, but Environment Around Companies Has Changed Significantly

By Aki Matsumoto

  • While the shareholding of banks and insurances has dropped significantly, that of foreign shareholders has risen to 30%, making it impossible to ignore the opinions of overseas investors as before.
  • Since the introduction of the Corporate Governance Code, the concept of governance and ROE has permeated companies, making it possible for them to understand the background of activist investors’ proposals.
  • Besides the close relationship between changes in valuations and changes in foreign shareholding, overseas investors account for 70% of TSE’s transactions, forcing management to increasingly listen to overseas investor’s voices.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Lvmh Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton, Garrett Motion and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • LVMH: +10% Since Initial Note. Shares Rallied to a Fresh Record After Q1 2023 Results
  • GTX: Forced Conversion Deal Accretive

LVMH: +10% Since Initial Note. Shares Rallied to a Fresh Record After Q1 2023 Results

By Alexis Dwek

  • Q1 better-than-expected sales led by Fashion & Leather Goods; positive surprise in the Selective Retailing division
  • Beat on the back of China’s economic recovery and the resilience of the rest of the world, particularly Europe
  • EPS estimates lifted by 4% and 5%. Momentum is strong.

GTX: Forced Conversion Deal Accretive

By Hamed Khorsand

  • GTX has entered into an agreement with its two largest shareholders to force the conversion of its Series A Preferred stock into common stock
  • The agreement with Centerbridge Partners and Oaktree Capital Management calls for GTX to repurchase shares $570 million of Series A Preferred stock and pay dividends owed
  • GTX had already claimed it would have reached the adjusted EBITDA requirement for the forced conversion. The transaction is accretive to GTX’s earnings.

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Daily Brief Consumer: JD.com Inc., Melco International Development, Seven & I Holdings, Adastria Co Ltd, The Keepers Holdings, Guoquan Food (Shanghai), Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Luckin Coffee, Kura Sushi Inc, Connect and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • JD.com Inc (9618 HK) – Prominent ST Momentum Failures – Target Tactical 9-18% Rise
  • Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (13 Apr): Melco, CMGE, Differ, Sino Biopharmaceutical
  • Retail Ads: A New Revenue Stream for Seven & I and Rival Convenience Stores
  • Adastria Takes on Uniqlo and Muji with New Chain
  • Keepers Holdings / Shakeys Pizza FY22 Results: What to Expect
  • Guoquan Food (Shanghai) Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • As Human Capital Disclosures Increase, Expect to Find More Interesting Relationships for Investment
  • [Luckin Coffee Inc. (LKNCY US) TP Change]: Strong New Product Sales Driving Seasonality Rebound
  • Five Days Later
  • Smiths News – Contract renewals cement future cash flows

JD.com Inc (9618 HK) – Prominent ST Momentum Failures – Target Tactical 9-18% Rise

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • JD.com Inc (9618 HK) has declined heavily in 2023 (-44.5%), producing a new 5 month low of 143.50 on 13 April 2023.
  • The 143.50 low was plagued by extreme ST momentum failure and the new low was quick to fail and reverse.
  • Our TSS methodology triggered a TSS < 10 at the low and justifies a further 9-18% upswing in the coming 1-2 weeks.

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (13 Apr): Melco, CMGE, Differ, Sino Biopharmaceutical

By David Blennerhassett


Retail Ads: A New Revenue Stream for Seven & I and Rival Convenience Stores

By Michael Causton

  • Retail media in its traditional sense is nothing new, simply referring to the use of advertising in stores, but in modern terms retail media is something far, far bigger. 
  • It is not only a trend in the US, but one that is about to explode in Japan – although in a very different format.
  • With purchase rates up two-fold in early experiments, the potential for brands advertising through retail stores will be significant with some estimates suggesting a ¥20 trillion market.

Adastria Takes on Uniqlo and Muji with New Chain

By Michael Causton

  • Adastria is on a roll, capturing more market share in both the core apparel market as well as through licensing (Forever 21) and home decoration and other lifestyle markets.
  • Until now, it has focused on slightly premium mass markets but a new chain will face Uniqlo and Muji head on in apparel basics.
  • It is also adding a new basics chain in home decoration and hoovering up contracts to supply apparel to chain stores. 

Keepers Holdings / Shakeys Pizza FY22 Results: What to Expect

By Sameer Taneja


Guoquan Food (Shanghai) Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Guoquan Food (Shanghai) (1786512D CH) is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Guoquan Food (Shanghai) is a home meal solutions provider in China.
  • Offering a wide variety of home meal solutions products under its Guoquan Shihui (鍋圈食匯) brand, the firm had a total of 755 SKUs as of Dec 22. 

As Human Capital Disclosures Increase, Expect to Find More Interesting Relationships for Investment

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The items to be disclosed by 300 listed companies with active women are expected to be disclosed in the Human Capital section of the Sustainability section of Annual Securities Report.
  • Investors will now decide whether these disclosure items have an impact on their investment or whether they need to seek disclosure of further material factors.
  • In Metrical universe, the ratio of female executives is also useful for investment tips, as it has been found to have a significant positive correlation with ROA and Tobin’s q.

[Luckin Coffee Inc. (LKNCY US) TP Change]: Strong New Product Sales Driving Seasonality Rebound

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect Luckin to report 1Q23 revenue at 77.0% YoY to RMB4,257mn, non-GAAP operating margin and net margin are expected to increase 12.6ppt and 9.1ppt to 16.4% and 13.2%; 
  • We think the current moderate competition can bring positive externality to coffee players, whereas it may hurt street tea shops; 
  • We maintain the stock as BUY and raise TP by US$1 to US$41.

Five Days Later

By Investment Talk

  • The memo I shared about Kura Sushi five days ago had two conclusions.
  • The fundamentals of the business continue to endure and the company was going to have to raise cash fairly soon.
  • I noted that “I believe within the next 6-12 months, we may see Kura issue additional stock or tap into their credit line”.

Smiths News – Contract renewals cement future cash flows

By Edison Investment Research

Smiths News announced yesterday that it has secured its fifth major publisher contract renewal with News UK & Ireland, publisher of The Sun, The Times and The Sunday Times. This follows new five-year agreements with Associated Newspapers, Telegraph Media Group (TMG), Frontline and Seymour Distribution, which collectively account for 65% of current newspaper and magazine revenues. We expect additional contract renewals to be secured in the next year. These renewals bolster the company’s cash-generative business model, providing a steady stream of revenue up to 2029/30. Our valuation remains unchanged at 89p, representing 78% upside to the current share price.


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