Category

Consumer

Daily Brief Consumer: Amorepacific Group, JD.com Inc (ADR), JD Health, Luckin Coffee, S&P BSE SENSEX Index, Trip.com, Hilton Worldwide Holdings and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Timing Stub Trade on Amorepacific Group with a Key Passive Inflow Event Coming Up
  • [JD.com (JD US, SELL, TP US$30) Target Price Change]: Painful Transition Continues Amid Margin Beat
  • [JD Health (6618 HK) Rating Change]: Strong Profitability Likely Achieved Margin Reversal
  • [Luckin Coffee Inc. (LKNCY US) Company Update]: Is Cotti Coffee Charles Lu’ NeXT Computer?
  • Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan
  • HSTECH Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes Lead to US$768m Two-Way Trade
  • Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.: A Strong Emergence From The Lull – Key Drivers

Timing Stub Trade on Amorepacific Group with a Key Passive Inflow Event Coming Up

By Sanghyun Park

  • AmoreG has been closely moving relative to Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS) over the past few months, but starting from mid-April, it rapidly entered a downward diversion phase.
  • It appears to have experienced greater sensitivity towards the recent tensions in Sino-Korean relations, possibly due to its higher price correlation with the Chinese market.
  • The issue lies in the timing of entry aimed at reversion, and there may be one upcoming passive inflow event that we should pay attention to in this regard.

[JD.com (JD US, SELL, TP US$30) Target Price Change]: Painful Transition Continues Amid Margin Beat

By Shawn Yang

  • JD reported 1Q23 revenue in-line vs. cons., while non-GAAP net income beat cons and our est. 99% and 74%, respectively.   
  • It’s early to say whether JD is getting out of the puddle, as (1) revenue grew just 1.4% YoY in 1Q23,  (2) the effect of its management change remains uncertain.
  • We maintain SELL, but raise JD’s 2023 non-GAAP net margin from prior 3.2% to 3.34%, and raise TP to US$ 30.  

[JD Health (6618 HK) Rating Change]: Strong Profitability Likely Achieved Margin Reversal

By Shawn Yang

  • JDHealth (JDH) reported C1Q23 top line and non-IFRS operating profit 56% and 78% of our C1H23 estimates. 
  • We now take a more positive view on JDH’s ability to at manage the issue at certain periods and certain areas;
  • We raise TP from HK$44 to HK$57 and rating to BUY. Possible risks include renewed margin pressure from prescription drugs

[Luckin Coffee Inc. (LKNCY US) Company Update]: Is Cotti Coffee Charles Lu’ NeXT Computer?

By Shawn Yang

  • Cotti Coffee has become a head-to-head competitor of Mixue’s Lucky Cup, and to a lesser degree, Luckin. 
  • But what is behind Cotti’s agenda, in our view, is its founder Charles Lu’s aspiration to return to Luckin;
  • The biggest obstacle for Charles to repeat the playbook of Steve Jobs is Chinese security regulator’s refusal, so far, to allow franchised chain to list

Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

By Joe Jasper

  • Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
  • We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.
  • We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today’s buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes Lead to US$768m Two-Way Trade

By Brian Freitas


Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.: A Strong Emergence From The Lull – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Hilton Worldwide Holdings delivered an all-around beat in its latest result as travel demand has remained robust, continuing the pattern seen in the back half of last year.
  • This resulted in both the company’s top and bottom line results closing the quarter above the high end of the management guidance.
  • The quarter’s leisure trends continued to be strong, with RevPAR outperforming the previous quarter’s performance.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Nitori Holdings, JD.com Inc., Li Auto, Coupang, Shiyue Daotian, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Heineken NV and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Nikkei 225 Market Consultation: Stepwise Additions & Technical Listings
  • JD.com (9618 HK): 1Q23, Expected Performance and Unexpected CEO Change, 92% Upside
  • [Li Auto Inc. (LI US) Target Price Change]: An Emerging Powerhouse…Reiterate as Our Top Pick
  • [Coupang Inc. (CPNG US) Target Price Change]: Fulfilment of 3P Orders Is Next Revenue Driver
  • Shiyue Daotian Pre-IPO – Looks Good at First Sight, but Not Great if One Digs Deeper
  • “TSE’s Request” Could Be a Harvest that Has Made It Easier to Compare Managers with Stock Valuations
  • Heineken: Unbottelling Full Potential

Nikkei 225 Market Consultation: Stepwise Additions & Technical Listings

By Brian Freitas

  • Nikkei has started a market consultation on amendments to the methodology of the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) focusing on the stepwise addition of lower liquidity stocks and on technical listings.
  • Stocks that have relatively low ADTV compared to the expected index weight will be added at half the originally planned PAF with the full PAF implemented at the next review.
  • If the proposed changes are implemented, some of the potential inclusions in September will be added at half their PAF with the increase to full PAF coming in March 2024.

JD.com (9618 HK): 1Q23, Expected Performance and Unexpected CEO Change, 92% Upside

By Ming Lu

  • JD replaces its CEO, Mr. L Xu, with the former CFO, Ms. S. Xu.
  • As we expect, the revenue growth slowed down and the operating margin improved in 1Q23.
  • We believe the stock has an upside of 92% for 2024.

[Li Auto Inc. (LI US) Target Price Change]: An Emerging Powerhouse…Reiterate as Our Top Pick

By Shawn Yang

  • Li Auto reported solid 1Q23 performance, with top line in line with cons/our est., and non-GAAP net margin beating cons/our estimate by 4.0/2.7ppt. 
  • We reiterate Li Auto as our top pick, because of 1) positive growth outlook in 2023 driven by strong model cycle (L9/L8/L7) and channel expansion; 
  • 2) margin upside due to improved opex efficiency. Our TP implies 2.8x PS.

[Coupang Inc. (CPNG US) Target Price Change]: Fulfilment of 3P Orders Is Next Revenue Driver

By Shawn Yang

  • CPNG reported C1Q23 top-line, EBITDA, and non-GAAP net income in-line, 8.1%, and (3.7%) vs. our est., and 3.1%, 8.2%, and in-line vs. cons., respectively. 
  • We estimate CPNG’s penetration of its 3P marketplace fulfilment (FLC) rose 6ppts~ YoY to 20%~ in 1Q23. 
  • We maintain our BUY rating and raise our TP to US$21.

Shiyue Daotian Pre-IPO – Looks Good at First Sight, but Not Great if One Digs Deeper

By Ethan Aw

  • Shiyue Daotian (1892269D CH) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming HK IPO. 
  • Shiyue Daotian is a pantry staple food company in China, providing consumers with pre-packaged premium rice, whole grain, bean, and dried food products. 
  • Shiyue Daotian’s largest revenue contributor is its rice products segment. However, the company experienced declining ASPs over the track record period while production and sales volume growth fell.

“TSE’s Request” Could Be a Harvest that Has Made It Easier to Compare Managers with Stock Valuations

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Stock price increases only at the “TSE’s request” are anticipatory, and conversely, the gap with JPX Prime 150 Index components, which attract the attention of overseas investors, may widen.
  • “TSE’s Request” effect is that TSE has changed the game by making it easier to compare managers of different companies according to P/B, thereby increasing managers’ awareness of stock prices.
  • Just as all companies worked to “conserve energy” and become more competitive during the oil crisis, many companies’ stock valuations will rise in environment where managers must change their mindset.

Heineken: Unbottelling Full Potential

By Alexis Dwek

  • In 2022, Heineken delivered strong profit growth despite the challenging market environment, driven by volume recovery post pandemic, premiumization, pricing, and cost savings
  • Heineken keeps working on improving and building its business for the long-term as it invests behind its brands
  • We believe Heineken’s new, more balanced approach to driving shareholder value is likely to yield a period of accelerated organic and margin growth that deserves a higher-than-peer valuation

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Daily Brief Consumer: BYD Co Ltd, Vedant Fashions, BYD, Panasonic Corp, Beenos Inc, KG Mobility, NagaCorp Ltd, Guoquan Food (Shanghai), Organto Foods, Adeia and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • China Cuts Automakers a Break on New Emission Rules
  • Vedant Fashions Ltd (Manyavar)- Forensic Analysis
  • BYD Takes Over Insolvent Online Insurer as Foundation for Auto Insurance Unit
  • Panasonic (6752) | Eyes Record Profit as Battery Business Shines
  • Beenos: Holds 133% of Its Market Cap in Cash, GoTo Shares, VC Investments & Investment Securities
  • Overlooked Aspects of KG Mobility’s Passive Flow Trading Opportunities: KOSPI 200 & KRX Auto
  • Deep-Dive 2023-8: NagaCorp (3918 HK)
  • Guoquan Food Pre-IPO – Decent Track Record, Although Newfound Profits Could Be Unsustainable
  • OGO: Recreating SunOpta’s Success
  • ADEA: Adios to Debt

China Cuts Automakers a Break on New Emission Rules

By Caixin Global

  • China granted a six-month grace period for carmakers and dealers to sell off as many as 2 million new vehicles that will be out of compliance with new emission standards taking effect July 1.
  • The move is intended to ease pressure on the auto market amid slowing sales and a brutal price war.
  • The government said it will allow sales of vehicles produced under the old pollution standards to continue until Dec. 31, though automakers will have to apply more stringent requirements to newly built autos starting July 1.

Vedant Fashions Ltd (Manyavar)- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Vedant Fashions (MANYAVAR IN) , (VFL) had recently debuted on the bourse in 2022. 
  • The company has grown to be one of the largest brands in the wedding/celebration apparel industry, boasting a network of 595 stores and 300+ franchises as of March 2022.
  • When it comes to the forensics, there are slight grey areas observed with respect to the accounting complications. The insight also highlights key governance takeaways.

BYD Takes Over Insolvent Online Insurer as Foundation for Auto Insurance Unit

By Caixin Global

  • Chinese electric-car giant BYD Co. got a green light from regulators to take over a bankrupt online insurance unit of the scandal-plagued conglomerate Tomorrow Holding Co. Ltd. with plans to turn it into an auto insurance provider.
  • The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) said Tuesday that it approved BYD’s 100% acquisition of E An Property & Casualty Insurance Co. Ltd.
  • Chinese authorities seized the company three years ago.

Panasonic (6752) | Eyes Record Profit as Battery Business Shines

By Mark Chadwick

  • Panasonic reported a 13% increase in sales and a 4% increase in net profit for fiscal 2023, driven by strong performance in its lifestyle, automotive, and connect segments.
  • Panasonic expects to beat Street consensus operating profit forecasts, reflecting the recovery of auto demand and recognition of tax credits for its battery production
  • Panasonic is a key beneficiary of continued expansion of EV market. Stock cheap at 8x EV/EBIT vs historical average of 11x

Beenos: Holds 133% of Its Market Cap in Cash, GoTo Shares, VC Investments & Investment Securities

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Beenos Inc (3328 JP), despite missing earnings and offering smaller-than-expected buybacks, is potentially a deeply undervalued investment.
  • Beenos holds 38% of its market-cap in cash 14% in GoTo shares 72% in VC investments and 9% in investment securities, which amounts to over 133% of its current market-cap.
  • Distributing these excess assets to investors could potentially generate more than 100% upside.

Overlooked Aspects of KG Mobility’s Passive Flow Trading Opportunities: KOSPI 200 & KRX Auto

By Sanghyun Park

  • KG Mobility belongs to the Consumer Discretionary sector, and if we consider its market cap on April 28th, it comfortably qualifies for inclusion in KOSPI 200 in the upcoming review.
  • Although the KOSPI 200 eligibility rules do not explicitly prohibit a stock based on such short trading periods, there is a chance that KRX might exercise its discretionary provision (6.1.2).
  • There is another significant event approaching us. As per current market cap levels, there is a high chance of KG Mobility being included in the KRX Auto Index in September.

Deep-Dive 2023-8: NagaCorp (3918 HK)

By Michael Fritzell

NagaCorp (3918 HK – US$3.5 billion) is a Hong Kong-listed casino operator based in Cambodia’s capital city of Phnom Penh.

Its two “NagaWorld” casinos with 480 gaming tables and 3,700 slot machines, and hotels with 2,700 rooms and related commercial properties.

What makes NagaWorld unique is that it has a monopoly on running casinos in a 200km radius of Phnom Penh, lasting until 2045.


Guoquan Food Pre-IPO – Decent Track Record, Although Newfound Profits Could Be Unsustainable

By Clarence Chu

  • Guoquan Food (Shanghai) (1786512D CH) is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Guoquan Food (Shanghai) is a home meal solutions provider in China.
  • Offering a wide variety of home meal solutions products under its Guoquan Shihui (鍋圈食匯) brand, the firm had a total of 755 SKUs as of Dec 22. 

OGO: Recreating SunOpta’s Success

By Atrium Research

  • Organto has effectively transitioned its business to an asset-light model, growing revenue from $1.5M in 2018 to $49M in 2023E
  • OGO now has a diversified platform covering 170 customers using its global supply chain that can provide year-round supply to its customers
  • Organto’s management team and board contain various executives that grew SunOpta to >US$1B in sales using a similar business model Organto Foods Inc. (OGO:TSXV) operates as a marketer and distributor of organic and non-GMO fruits and vegetables to end-consumers in Europe.

ADEA: Adios to Debt

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ADEA reported first quarter results highlighting the Company’s ability to generate free cash flow from its licensing business as it signed more contract renewals in the period
  • After signing ten license agreements in the fourth quarter of 2022, ADEA signed another eight agreements in the first quarter.
  • ADEA maintained its full year outlook on all metrics. ADEA is projecting adjusted EBITDA of $262M at midpoint. ADEA is applying its free cash flow to reducing its debt balance

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Daily Brief Consumer: Marui Group, Hyundai Motor (2nd Pref), Seven & I Holdings, Fast Retailing, The Keepers Holdings, Alibaba Group, MGM China Holdings, Bikaji Foods, The Walt Disney Co, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • BIGLY Marui Group (8252 JP) Buyback, Backed by Big Dividend Boost
  • Where Are We Now Regarding New Dividend Distribution Procedure in Korea?
  • Seven & I: Investor Activism Update
  • Fast Retailing: Great Fundamentals for Uniqlo, Shame About the Share Price
  • Shakeys Pizza/Keepers Holdings Q1 2023 Results: What to Expect?
  • Alibaba (9988 HK) Earnings Preview: Better Growth and Better Margin for 4Q23
  • MGM China: 1Q23 Results Shine Positive Light on Higher Valuations Ahead
  • Bikaji Foods IPO Lock-Up – Small Expiry with a Chance to Lift the Overhang
  • Disney’s Q2 2023 Earnings: Now Is The Time To Deliver
  • New Index Distracts from Prime Market Issues While Providing Long/Short Opportunities for Investors

BIGLY Marui Group (8252 JP) Buyback, Backed by Big Dividend Boost

By Travis Lundy

  • Last year, fintech-wannabe Marui Group (8252 JP) announced a large buyback as part of its ¥100bn distribution to shareholders in its MTMP, then increased the size
  • They repurchased ¥26bn of shares. Today they announced the return of ¥50bn this year including a ¥40bn buyback. And having arrived at their optimal balance sheet structure, a new policy.
  • That’s 10% of market cap and 11.6% of shares. And again a delayed start. And as always, shareholder structure matters. In this case a lot.

Where Are We Now Regarding New Dividend Distribution Procedure in Korea?

By Sanghyun Park

  • 646 listed companies (28.5%) in Korea have modified their articles of incorporation this March to prioritize determining the dividend amount before setting the dividend record date.
  • New practices will arise involving the use of single-stock futures for arbitrage trading through baskets among major high-dividend companies whose dates of the dividend records overlap.
  • It will be crucial to keep track of the dividend record dates with precision. In this connection, KLCA and KOSDAQCA will create a website monitoring this information.

Seven & I: Investor Activism Update

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • The relationship between Value Act and Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) has become toxic due to Value Act’s opportunistic behaviour after the passing of the Seven & I founder.
  • Seven & I and Value Act have been exchanging letters more frequently, with recent ones taking on an angry tone, especially from Seven & I’s side.
  • Value Act’s attempt to block the reappointment of experienced directors could cause long-term value disruption, especially if their goal is to pressure a spinoff of the convenience store business.

Fast Retailing: Great Fundamentals for Uniqlo, Shame About the Share Price

By Michael Causton

  • Uniqlo is such a mainstay of Japanese retailing, and indeed life, that its dominance seems inevitable and unchanging. 
  • Yet it has morphed from a mess of poorly judged acquisitions and failed overseas experiments into Japan’s biggest retail export – and still manages to pull off 20% growth.
  • Its latest target of ¥10 trillion in 10 years is far-fetched but its history of persistent determination suggests continued expansion is a certainty.

Shakeys Pizza/Keepers Holdings Q1 2023 Results: What to Expect?

By Sameer Taneja


Alibaba (9988 HK) Earnings Preview: Better Growth and Better Margin for 4Q23

By Ming Lu

  • We believe revenue will grow by 5.6% YoY in 4Q23 and by 9% in FY2023 versus 2.7% in FY2022.
  • We also believe operating margin will improve slightly to 8.9% in 4Q23 versus 8.2% in 4Q22.
  • We believe the stock has an upside of 63% for March 2024.

MGM China: 1Q23 Results Shine Positive Light on Higher Valuations Ahead

By Howard J Klein

  • Much market sentiment continues to await more evidence that recovery in Macau can be sustained long term towards reaching baseline 2019 revenue levels.
  • MGM China Holdings Ltd. market share tracked under double digits pre-covid but is now poised to rise to low to mid teens going forward.
  • We see the shares as undervalued because its ramp ahead starts at a lower base than peers and is poised for significant sequential earnings beats ahead.

Bikaji Foods IPO Lock-Up – Small Expiry with a Chance to Lift the Overhang

By Sumeet Singh

  • Bikaji Foods (BIKAJI IN), an ethnic snacks company, raised approximately US$107m in its India IPO. The stock was listed on 16th Nov 2022, its six-month lockup will expire soon.
  • Bikaji was the third largest ethnic snacks company in India and the second fastest growing company in the Indian organized snacks market in FY22, as per Frost & Sullivan (F&S).
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Disney’s Q2 2023 Earnings: Now Is The Time To Deliver

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • Disney is scheduled to release its Q2 2023 results later this week.
  • A number of factors are pointing to a strong and a better than expected quarter, but long-term problems remain.
  • The macroeconomic environment is also supportive for Disney’s Parks, Experiences and Products segment.

New Index Distracts from Prime Market Issues While Providing Long/Short Opportunities for Investors

By Aki Matsumoto

  • TSE may be trying to dodge criticism that prime market, which includes many illiquid companies, has large gap with the concept of a “market that global investors can invest in.”
  • JPX Prime 150 Index is expected to solve the problem of TOPIX buying up companies of low quality and not engaging with companies due to the large number of components.
  • Neither index is expected to differ much in performance since they are both market capitalization-weighted indices, but the difference in component stocks compared to TOPIX will provide investment opportunities.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Ferrari N.V., Nissin Foods Holdings, Aeon Co Ltd, Coupang, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Tesla Motors and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Ferrari: Classic Fisher Company, Almost Perfect Score on The Fisher 15 Framework
  • Nissin Foods’ FQ4 Earnings: A Possible 59% Operating Profit Surprise?
  • Aeon Will Own Japan’s Two Largest Supermarket Groups with Inageya Purchase
  • [Coupang Inc. (CPNG US) Earnings Preview]: Market Share Solid Given Limited Competitive Threat
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.: Improved Digital Capabilities & A 6
  • Tesla Inc.: Price Cuts Along With Capacity Expansion Have Really Changed The Game – Key Drivers

Ferrari: Classic Fisher Company, Almost Perfect Score on The Fisher 15 Framework

By Sameer Taneja

  • Ferrari NV (RACE IM) has been a steady compounder of earnings growing operating profits at 14% CAGR and sales volumes at 6% CAGR over the last 20 years. 
  • The company has expanded EBITDA margins from 25% in 2014 to 35% in 2022 and is expected to increase by another 300 bps in FY23 to 38%, as per guidance. 
  • At 41x/35x FY23e/FY24e, we conceded it is a tad expensive, but we would look at investing in this company over the long term.

Nissin Foods’ FQ4 Earnings: A Possible 59% Operating Profit Surprise?

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Nissin Foods Holdings (2897 JP) to report FQ4 results on May 10th with ¥158.5bn revenue and ¥8.1bn operating profit expected according to revised Feb 2023 guidance.
  • Consensus predicts Nissin Foods’ operating profit to be ¥6.6bn from a revenue of ¥167.8bn, which is lower than the company’s latest annual guidance.
  • Meanwhile, a higher FQ4 operating profit of ¥10.5bn is expected based on our analysis, exceeding consensus by 59%.

Aeon Will Own Japan’s Two Largest Supermarket Groups with Inageya Purchase

By Michael Causton

  • Last year saw the consolidation of several supermarket chains in Shikoku and Chugoku by Aeon, creating Japan’s largest supermarket group. 
  • Now, Aeon has now announced that it will expand its existing stake in Inageya, rolling the company into USMH and creating another, even larger food operation and Japan’s biggest yet.
  • Aeon is looking for dominance in Tokyo and may seek more acquisitions but rivals are unlikely to give it a free hand nor say no to acquisitions of their own.

[Coupang Inc. (CPNG US) Earnings Preview]: Market Share Solid Given Limited Competitive Threat

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect CPNG to report C1Q23 top-line and non-GAAP net income 2.0% and 4.8% vs. consensus, respectively. 
  • AliExpress became S. Korea’s most downloaded app after increasing spending, but product overlap with Coupang is limited, while other S. Korean competitors recorded declining MAU, in our understanding.
  • South Korean economic indicators, including CPI and retail data, point towards a recovery. We maintain our BUY rating and US$19 TP.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.: Improved Digital Capabilities & A 6

By Baptista Research

  • It was a successful quarter for Chipotle Mexican Grill, reporting an all-around beat.
  • The company’s quarterly sales were $2.4 billion and it retained about 80% of digital sales and has recovered almost 80% of in-restaurant sales.
  • We give Chipotle Mexican Grill a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Tesla Inc.: Price Cuts Along With Capacity Expansion Have Really Changed The Game – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Tesla had a mixed quarter and failed to meet the high revenue expectations of Wall Street.
  • Although automotive operating margin and gross margin both fell sequentially, the company delivered an earnings beat.
  • In terms of the Cybertruck, Tesla continues to construct Alpha models of the Cybertruck on its pilot line for testing.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Super Hi International Holding, Makalot Industrial, Alibaba Group, Skyworth Group Limited and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in June & September
  • Yuanta/​​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend+ ETF Preview: Two Weeks to Cutoff
  • Alibaba (9988 HK): Chinese Authorities Turning Opposite to Encourage Non-State-Owned Companies
  • Skyworth (751 HK): Thoughts On Proration

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in June & September

By Brian Freitas

  • There is only one new listing as a potential inclusion to the HSCI in June. If added to the HSCI, it will also be added to Southbound Stock Connect.
  • There are 18 potential inclusions and 19 potential deletions for the HSCI in September. There are a few close adds and there could be another 5 deletions on Prolonged Suspension.
  • A lot of the potential deletions have large Southbound holdings. With all the stocks becoming sell-only, there could be unwinding of some positions over the next couple of months.

Yuanta/​​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend+ ETF Preview: Two Weeks to Cutoff

By Brian Freitas

  • With two weeks left to the cutoff, there could be 5 changes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June.
  • Apart from the adds/deletes, there will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 13.5% and a one-way trade of US$886m.
  • There are 9 stocks with at least 5 days ADV to trade from passive trackers and another 12 stocks that have at least 1 day ADV to trade.

Alibaba (9988 HK): Chinese Authorities Turning Opposite to Encourage Non-State-Owned Companies

By Ming Lu

  • Chinese authorities have begun to ban public opinion against non-state-owned companies.
  • These actions were the opposite to what the authorities did in past years.
  • We believe the authorities need non-state-owned companies to bail the unemployed young people out of the weak job market.

Skyworth (751 HK): Thoughts On Proration

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 23 December, Skyworth Group (751 HK) announced another partial buyback – this time for 100mn shares (3.87% of shares out), at HK$3.80/share, a 20.25% premium to undisturbed.  
  • On the 28 March, terms were bumped to $5.00/share. Independent shareholders approved the whitewash waiver on the 5 May.
  • The Offer closes on the 18 May. The minimum proration is 7.8%. Expect the final proration to be higher. 

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Daily Brief Consumer: Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Rather, Listing Criteria for Prime Market Should Be Modified to the Original Concept of the Market

Rather, Listing Criteria for Prime Market Should Be Modified to the Original Concept of the Market

By Aki Matsumoto

  • While the listing criteria aren’t consistent with the initial concept of the prime market, “investment targets for global investors,” “transitional” companies that don’t meet those listing criteria are allowed listing.
  • Delisting through TOB or MBO will lead to the metabolism of listed companies and maintain the quality of the TSE as an “investment target for global investors” market.
  • It is not about bringing “transitional” companies into compliance with the listing criteria of the prime market, but about modifying the listing criteria to the original concept of the market.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Japan Tobacco, Oishi Group PCL, DXN Holdings, NFC Indonesia, Luckin Coffee, Pointerra Ltd and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Tobacco High Conviction Update: Potential 62% Upside
  • Oishi Group: Shareholders Back ThaiBev’s Offer
  • DXN Holdings IPO – Peer Comparison & Valuation
  • Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | NFC Indonesia: From Digital Enabler to EV Mobility Provider
  • [Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$41) Earnings Review]: Price War Will Work to Luckin’s Advantage
  • Pointerra Ltd – Q3 Cashflow Positive, More to Come

Japan Tobacco High Conviction Update: Potential 62% Upside

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Japan Tobacco’s 1Q23 performance exceeded consensus expectations, with revenue and OP surpassing by 5.3% and 12.3%, respectively.
  • Consensus expected no volume growth for Japan Tobacco in declining combustible tobacco market; targeted mid-single digit constant currency revenue growth via pricing.
  • Higher cigarette prices are expected to contribute to Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)‘s OP growth, which we anticipate will exceed its historical peak levels in the next few years.

Oishi Group: Shareholders Back ThaiBev’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 10th March, Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) launched a Delisting Offer for 79.66%-held Oishi Group (OISHI TB), at THB 59/share, a 26.9% premium to last close. 
  • This two-step Offer required a shareholder vote followed by a tendering process. Yesterday (the 3rd May), Oishi shareholders approved the Delisting Offer. 
  • The tendering period may kick off around this time next month, with an expected payment late August. 

DXN Holdings IPO – Peer Comparison & Valuation

By Clarence Chu

  • DXN Holdings (2080694D MK) is looking to raise around US$159m in its Malaysia IPO.
  • DXN Holdings (DXN) is a global health-oriented and wellness direct selling company.
  • In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison, discuss our earnings assumptions, and share our thoughts on valuation.

Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | NFC Indonesia: From Digital Enabler to EV Mobility Provider

By Smartkarma Research

For our next Corporate Webinar, we are glad to welcome NFC Indonesia’s Group Head of Corporate Finance & Strategy, Stanley Tijandra.

In the upcoming webinar, Stanley will share a short company presentation after which, he will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Angus Mackintosh. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Tuesday, 09 May 2023, 17:00 SGT.

About NFC Indonesia

PT NFC Indonesia Tbk (IDX: NFCX), a subsidiary of PT M Cash Integrasi Tbk (IDX: MCAS), is a digital customer experience company that offers a complete suite of services aimed at assisting the retail industry in improving customer engagement and competitiveness, in Indonesia’s growing economic biosphere, through its five main initiatives: Digital Product Aggregator, Digital Cloud Advertising, Content & Entertainment, Digital Wholesale, and Clean Energy.


[Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$41) Earnings Review]: Price War Will Work to Luckin’s Advantage

By Shawn Yang

  • Luckin Coffee 1Q23 revenue beat is due to higher-than-expected store expansion, while SSSG is in-line with our estimate. 
  • The normalized of RMB9.9 per cup campaign is expected to generate minor impact on Luckin Coffee’s profitability. 
  • We maintain the stock as BUY and maintain TP at US$41.

Pointerra Ltd – Q3 Cashflow Positive, More to Come

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Pointerra Ltd (ASX:3DP) provides a powerful cloud-based solution (Pointerra3D) for managing, visualising, analysing, using and sharing massive 3D point clouds and datasets.
  • Pointerra3D is a proprietary digital twin SaaS platform which delivers predictive digital insights and definitive answers to complex physical asset management questions.
  • The Pointerra3D suite of solutions spans target sectors including survey and mapping; architecture, engineering and construction (AEC); utilities; transport; resources and defence and intelligence. 

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Daily Brief Consumer: HLB Inc, DXN Holdings, Beenos Inc, Mitra Adiperkasa, Minth Group Ltd, Oishi Group PCL, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Plans to List Single-Stock Futures of All KS200 & KQ150 Constituents
  • DXN Holdings IPO – Updates Since Our Last Note
  • Beenos: Big Buybacks Forthcoming
  • Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) – Vibrant Start to Very Different Year
  • Minth: Buy
  • Oishi Group (OISHI TB): Shareholders Approve the THB59.00 Delisting Offer
  • To Make the TSE Prime Market in Line with the Original Concept of the Market

KRX Plans to List Single-Stock Futures of All KS200 & KQ150 Constituents

By Sanghyun Park

  • According to Chosun, KRX plans to list the single-stock futures of all constituents of KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 within 2-3 years.
  • This information comes from a KRX official, who directly confirmed it. As Chosun is the most well-established news outlet in Korea, the credibility of this article is quite high.
  • We should consider screening those with a high proportion of short-selling positions and devising a positioning strategy in conjunction with the new listing event of single stock futures in July.

DXN Holdings IPO – Updates Since Our Last Note

By Clarence Chu

  • DXN Holdings (2080694D MK) is looking to raise around US$159m in its Malaysia IPO.
  • DXN Holdings (DXN) is a global health-oriented and wellness direct selling company.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we take a look at the company’s updated financials.

Beenos: Big Buybacks Forthcoming

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Beenos Inc (3328 JP) is currently one of the cheapest stocks in the Japanese e-commerce sector with a consensus FY+2 EV/OP of 4.5x with an OP CAGR of around 130%.
  • In addition, the relatively cheap-looking valuation multiple excludes the current valuation of Beenos’ incubation program investments.
  • We think Beenos can sell its stake in GoTo in the short-term to conduct a big share buyback as the management thinks that Beenos is unfairly valued by the market.

Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) – Vibrant Start to Very Different Year

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) 1Q2023 numbers reflected a strong start to the New Year, with vibrant sales growth, improved profitability, and growth across all segments.
  • The company maintained the momentum behind its omnichannel strategy with online sales making up 8.1% of total sales despite more offline activity as COVID restrictions were dropped.
  • Mitra Adiperkasa continues to expand its footprint both in Indonesia and with selective brands in South-East Asia, most recently in the Philippines. Valuations are attractive versus historical levels.

Minth: Buy

By Xin Yu, CFA

  • Minth’s stock price has been weak in the past year but its improving fundamentals started to reflect in the results in 2H22. 
  • 2023 revenue growth will be supported by the overseas auto market recovery and fast-growing battery housing business. 
  • Minth’s valuation is near historical low and is at a discount to its peers

Oishi Group (OISHI TB): Shareholders Approve the THB59.00 Delisting Offer

By Arun George

  • Oishi Group PCL (OISHI TB)’s shareholders overwhelmingly approved Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)’s delisting tender offer of THB59.00 per share. The approval was expected as ThaiBev was allowed to vote.
  • The offer is attractive compared to historical share prices, multiples and the IFA’s fair value of THB53.48-56.42 per share. 
  • The delisting now requires SET approval. At the last close and for an end of July completion, the gross and annualised spread is 2.2% and 9.4%, respectively.

To Make the TSE Prime Market in Line with the Original Concept of the Market

By Aki Matsumoto

  • As for “liquidity,” one of the problems of TSE market restructuring, if the selection criteria for TOPIX components are raised, fewer companies will be forced to cling to prime market.
  • Regarding “engagement” challenge, a solution is reducing the number of TOPIX components, since low fees and many portfolio companies of passive funds prevent investment managers from devoting resources to engagements.
  • Regarding “sustainable growth” challenge, inflation would be a catalyst for learning from history, where an environment that forced all companies to change caused a change in the mindset of managers.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Arclands Corporation, Taste Gourmet, Kimly Ltd, S&P 500 INDEX, JD.com Inc., Yerbae Brands , Philip Morris International, Procter & Gamble Co and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami-San Goes Substantial on Arcland SHD (3085) Ahead of Merger Vote Record Date
  • Taste Gourmet: What to Expect From the 2023 Results
  • Kimly (KMLY SP): Ramp up in Public Housing Supply, an Opportunity to Expand
  • S&P 500 Testing 4165-4200, DJIA Testing 34,280, Nasdaq Composite Testing 12,300; Stay Defensive
  • JD.com (9618 HK) Earnings Preview: To Continue A Strategy of Low Growth and High Margin
  • Yerbaé Brands: 2022 Financials Beat Expectations
  • Philip Morris International Inc.: IQOS & ILUMA Are Changing The Game – Key Drivers
  • The Procter & Gamble Company: Pricing Power Continues To Be Its Biggest Weapon – Key Drivers

JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami-San Goes Substantial on Arcland SHD (3085) Ahead of Merger Vote Record Date

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, City index Eleventh, the corporate entity often used by noted activist Yoshiaki Murakami, announced (EDINET filing) they owned 1.756mm shares or 5.31% of Arcland Service (3085 JP) 
  • In mid-April, Arclands Corporation (9842 JP) announced it would merge with 55%-owned restaurant subsidiary Arclands SHD. Murakami-owned 5+% of Arclands at the time. Then it sold 9842 and bought 3085.
  • This looks like a confusing set of moves. It is not as confusing when you think about it. He is setting up something for later.

Taste Gourmet: What to Expect From the 2023 Results

By Sameer Taneja

  • Taste Gourmet (8371 HK) will report FY23 (March YE) results on June 23rd. Channel checks indicate strong momentum in Q4 Vs. Q3 FY23.
  • Based on our estimates of 72/112 mn HKD for FY23/24e, the stock trades at 8x/5x FY23e/FY24e with a 7.6%/11.9% dividend yield assuming a 60% payout ratio.
  • The company has 114 mn HKD of cash (20% of market cap), which is earmarked for restaurant expansion by 6-10 outlets and dividend payout (50-60% of earnings) in HK/China.

Kimly (KMLY SP): Ramp up in Public Housing Supply, an Opportunity to Expand

By Devi Subhakesan

  • The ramp-up in public housing supply in Singapore could be an opportunity for Kimly Ltd to fast-track expansion given its outlets, food-stalls are mostly located in public housing blocks. 
  • Bigger F&B retail players like Kimly are better positioned versus others to weather the multiple headwinds faced by Singapore F&B retail sector today. 
  • Upcoming 1H FY2023 results can trigger an up move in the stock if the company reports a meaningful margin recovery. Current undemanding valuations reflect heightened investor concerns.  

S&P 500 Testing 4165-4200, DJIA Testing 34,280, Nasdaq Composite Testing 12,300; Stay Defensive

By Joe Jasper

  • We still recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Healthcare, and gold miners) as the SPX tests our 4165-4200 resistance range, and also resistance from the prior 1.5-month uptrend.
  • As we await Wednesdays FOMC announcement, the DJIA and Nasdaq Composite are testing 1-year resistances at 34,280 and 12,300, the DXY appears to be inflecting higher, and breadth remains weak.
  • While we still see a reach to 4300-4325 as possible, we believe playing for more upside is akin to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.

JD.com (9618 HK) Earnings Preview: To Continue A Strategy of Low Growth and High Margin

By Ming Lu

  • We believe JD’s growth rate will continue to slow down and its margin will continue to improve in 1Q23.
  • However, we also believe revenue growth will recover from 2Q23.
  • We set a price target of HK$256, implying an upside of 85%. Buy.

Yerbaé Brands: 2022 Financials Beat Expectations

By Atrium Research

  • Yerbaé posted full-year 2022 financial results that beat our estimates.
  • 2022 net revenue came in at $7.2M vs. our estimate of $6.8M, representing 19% YoY growth
  • Gross margin came in at 59% in 2022 vs. our estimate of 58%

Philip Morris International Inc.: IQOS & ILUMA Are Changing The Game – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Philip Morris International’s Q1 results exceeded analyst expectations on the earnings front but were below par in terms of revenues despite some decent underlying momentum from IQOS, ZYN, and its combustible business.
  • The company’s Q1 organic net revenues had solid growth.
  • This highlights the ongoing strength of IQOS as a step-up in pricing but was somewhat mitigated by anticipated HTU inventory movement.

The Procter & Gamble Company: Pricing Power Continues To Be Its Biggest Weapon – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Procter & Gamble delivered strong results and managed an all-around beat in the recent result.
  • Pricing increased sales growth by 10 points, while mix had a marginally favorable impact on the quarter.
  • Growth remained widespread across business divisions, with organic sales increasing in the company’s ten product categories.

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