Category

Consumer

Daily Brief Consumer: XPeng , JD Health International , Tencent Music and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • [XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, SELL, TP US$9) Rating Change]: Strategic Options May Come Late and Uncertain
  • [JD Health (6618 HK, BUY, TP HK$52) TP Change]: A COVID Hiccup but Environment Is Turning Positive
  • [Tencent Music (TME US, BUY, TP US$9.7) Rating Change]: Unique Content Unlocked Paying Potential


[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, SELL, TP US$9) Rating Change]: Strategic Options May Come Late and Uncertain

By Eric Wen

  • XPeng C3Q23 top line, non-GAAP operating loss and GAAP net loss in line, 28% and 68% worse than our estimates, main reason is G3’s End-Of-Production charge to the gross margin
  • We expect XPEV to experience tough transition in 2024 since product line which spans across sedan and SUV, shall experience severe competition at a time when its differentiation is eroding.
  • We prefer to wait out this period; we cut TP of XPEV from US$18 to US$9 and downgrade to SELL.

[JD Health (6618 HK, BUY, TP HK$52) TP Change]: A COVID Hiccup but Environment Is Turning Positive

By Eric Wen

  • JDH reported C3Q23 top line and non-IFRS operating profit that are 39% and 34% of our C2H23 estimates. We cut C2H23 top line, non-IFRS operating profit and IFRS net income.
  • We keep 2024 top line unchanged but cut non-IFRS operating profit by 31% as we believe JDH might need to invest to explore new growth opportunities;
  • We cut TP from US$65 to US$52 but maintain BUY.

[Tencent Music (TME US, BUY, TP US$9.7) Rating Change]: Unique Content Unlocked Paying Potential

By Ying Pan

  • TME reported C3Q23 revenue, non-IFRS operating profit and IFRS net income inline, 12.9%, 2.3% vs. consensus. The bottom-line beat mainly due to the cost-effective operation and music subscription services.
  • We notice TME has become less reliable on live streaming and more on monetizing its user base through ARPU enhancement
  • We upgraded TME to BUY and raised the target price to US$ 9.7, implying a 21.1x PE ratio compared to its current trading at 17.8x in 2024.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Alibaba Group Holding , Shakey’s Pizza, Dream International, Wynn Macau Ltd and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba: Our Take on 2QFY24
  • Shakey’s Pizza (PIZZA PM) Concall Q3 2023: Soft, But Guidance Intact/Brace For Q4 High Season
  • Asian Dividend Gems: Dream International
  • Weekly Wrap – 17 Nov 2023


Alibaba: Our Take on 2QFY24

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • While Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)‘s 2Q24 revenue and OP closely matched consensus expectations, the company experienced a significant sell-off, resulting in shares plummeting by over 9% yesterday.
  • Yesterday’s weak performance may be linked to a 10% pre-earnings price surge, anticipating robust results. The postponement of the Cloud Spin-off could also have contributed to the decline.
  • We maintain a bearish stance on Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) as we identify other fundamental and structural downside catalysts might become increasingly important and price-sensitive as time progresses.

Shakey’s Pizza (PIZZA PM) Concall Q3 2023: Soft, But Guidance Intact/Brace For Q4 High Season

By Sameer Taneja

  • Shakey’s Pizza (PIZZA PM) reported a 28% YoY/26% YoY sales/net profit increase for Q3 FY23 due to a sales softening in September. 
  • Sales are expected to strengthen into Q4 as there is a seasonal uplift, although the QoQ increase is not expected to be in line with previous years.
  • The stock trades at 12.9x/9.9x PE FY23e/24e and will continue to see double-digit CAGR sales momentum.  The management retained its >30% YoY growth target for FY23e. 

Asian Dividend Gems: Dream International

By Douglas Kim

  • Based in Hong Kong, Dream International is one of the largest toy manufacturers in the world. It specializes on plush stuffed toys and plastic figures. 
  • Despite the global toys markets going into destocking cycle, the company has generated significant growth in operating profit in the past year driven by strong demand for plush stuffed toys.
  • If we assume a moderate 20% YoY increase in dividends in 2023, this would imply DPS of HKD 0.48 and this would suggest a dividend yield of 12.7% current prices. 

Weekly Wrap – 17 Nov 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. SJM Holdings
  2. Melco Resorts & Entertainment
  3. Lenovo
  4. Longfor Properties
  5. Tata Motors Ltd

and more…


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Daily Brief Consumer: Asahi Group Holdings, Alibaba Group Holding , DXN Holdings, Volkswagen (Pref), Dentsu Inc, Wynn Macau Ltd and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Asahi Group Holdings (2502) Offering – Some Index Demand But Needs Lots of Active Long-Onlies
  • Asahi Group Placement – Relatively Small One when Compared to Previous Large JP Secondary Selldowns
  • Alibaba (9988 HK): 2Q24, Higher Margin Means Smooth Reorganization, Buy
  • Asahi Group (2502 JP): Big Placement with Limited Index Buying; Timing Is Key
  • Asahi Group (2502 JP): US$1.3bn Secondary Placement
  • DXN Holdings Lock-Up – PE Investor Could Sell Further Although Liquidity Is Weak
  • Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November‘23 Report
  • Dentsu Group – One dentsu initiative set to improve efficiency
  • Morning Views Asia: Lenovo, Melco Resorts & Entertainment, SJM Holdings, Wynn Macau Ltd


Asahi Group Holdings (2502) Offering – Some Index Demand But Needs Lots of Active Long-Onlies

By Travis Lundy

  • Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP) today announced a collection of 10 shareholders (mostly financial institutions) would sell a total of 33.48mm shares (6.6% of shares out) in Asahi Group. 
  • This will become more of a thing going forward. Cross-holders “want” to unwind. And in many cases, the cross-held want to buy back stock (reduce E, raise ROE).
  • This deal is “good” in that it clears out a lot of the bank cross-holders in one fell swoop. But there are more crossholders behind.

Asahi Group Placement – Relatively Small One when Compared to Previous Large JP Secondary Selldowns

By Clarence Chu

  • A group of shareholders are looking to raise US$1.3bn (JPY197.8bn) by selling their respective stakes in Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP) via an extended secondary follow-on.
  • The deal would represent 23 days of Asahi’s three month ADV. Its latest extended large primary deal has done very well.
  • While the deal isn’t particularly well flagged, it is an extended one allowing the market to price in the impact of the share sale. 

Alibaba (9988 HK): 2Q24, Higher Margin Means Smooth Reorganization, Buy

By Ming Lu

  • Alibaba’s operating margin rose to 15% in 2Q24 versus 12% in 2Q23.
  • Every expense as percentage of total revenue decreased and EBITDA of every business line increased.
  • We believe the reorganization is going smoothly and the stock has an upside of 82%. Buy.

Asahi Group (2502 JP): Big Placement with Limited Index Buying; Timing Is Key

By Brian Freitas

  • Nine shareholders are looking to sell 33.48m shares of Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP). That is US$1.28bn, 24x ADV and 6.6% of shares outstanding.
  • Given the recent run up in the stock, there could be downside over the next couple of weeks ahead of the pricing date.
  • There will be buying from global trackers but nothing from TOPIX trackers, so not a lot of stock will be mopped up. Passive buying before settlement could create a squeeze.

Asahi Group (2502 JP): US$1.3bn Secondary Placement

By Arun George

  • Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP) announced a pure secondary offering of 33.5 million or 6.61% of outstanding shares. At the last close, the placement was worth JPY194 billion (US$1.3 billion).
  • Notwithstanding Asahi’s explanation, the selling shareholders’ motivation for exiting their shareholding is likely to capitalise on the strong share price performance – Asahi shares are up 45% YTD.
  • Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 28 November and 1 December (likely 28 November).

DXN Holdings Lock-Up – PE Investor Could Sell Further Although Liquidity Is Weak

By Clarence Chu

  • DXN Holdings (DXN MK) was listed on the Bursa Malaysia Exchange on 19th May 2023. Both promoters and Gano Global (KV Asia Capital), will come off lockup soon.
  • DXN Holdings (DXN) is a global health-oriented and wellness direct selling company.
  • Demand for the IPO was lukewarm and the shares had a turbulent debut. Aside from its weak momentum, liquidity on the stock is weak as well. 

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November‘23 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Since mid-October, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (8 have tightened, 10 widened, 1 at same level).
  • Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen (still the most interesting situation), Grifols, Atlas Copco.
  • Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, SSAB Svenska Stal.

Dentsu Group – One dentsu initiative set to improve efficiency

By Edison Investment Research

Dentsu’s Q323 trading update describes demanding trading conditions with continuing spending constraint from customers in technology and finance, and ongoing delays to larger digital transformation projects. Full year organic revenue guidance is revised to -5% (from 0% to -2%), with an operating margin of 13.5%, depressed by one-off factors from 15.0%. The outlook is improving, albeit patchily, and initiatives to streamline the business and structure it more effectively to meet client needs should benefit the operating margin in FY24 and beyond.


Morning Views Asia: Lenovo, Melco Resorts & Entertainment, SJM Holdings, Wynn Macau Ltd

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Consumer: DCM Holdings, Galaxy Entertainment Group, ZEEKR, Taste Gourmet, Onward Holdings, SJM Holdings and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Aeon/DCM/Keiyo Deal Changes on DCM TOB for Keiyo – Watch for Market Impact
  • Our High Conviction Asia Based Gaming Stocks Signal Buy on the Dip Entry Points
  • ZEEKR IPO Preview: A Geely-Backed Fast-Growing Decacorn in China’s EV Revolution
  • Taste Gourmet Q2 2023, Far Better Than Expectations 5.3x PE, 27% Mkt Cap In Cash, 9% Yield
  • Onward on the March: More Profit from Japanese Apparel Firms
  • Morning Views Asia: SJM Holdings


Aeon/DCM/Keiyo Deal Changes on DCM TOB for Keiyo – Watch for Market Impact

By Travis Lundy

  • DCM Holdings (3050 JP) and Keiyo Co Ltd (8168 JP) and Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) signed capital and business tie-up agreements 30+yrs ago. Recently, DCM bought Keiyo.
  • Aeon got some money from this and has decided to put that money back into DCM shares.
  • That changes both the current dynamics and future shareholder structure. And that leads to interesting questions about the outcome.

Our High Conviction Asia Based Gaming Stocks Signal Buy on the Dip Entry Points

By Howard J Klein

  • Our review of the  three stocks here reveals considerable run room ahead as revenue  recovery in Asia gaming is  outpacing  forecasts.
  • These companies  have proven   resilient after taking big hits during covid crisis.
  • Balance sheets are stronger, revenue  rising, margins  improved–much of  this not as yet  reflected in valuations.

ZEEKR IPO Preview: A Geely-Backed Fast-Growing Decacorn in China’s EV Revolution

By Andrei Zakharov

  • ZEEKR, a fast-growing premium BEV maker, filed its F-1 last week. The company is going public through an IPO and offering ADSs of a Cayman Islands holding company.
  • In 2022, Geely agreed to spin off ZEEKR and list its EV maker in Asia/the U.S. The company has raised ~$1.6B and was backed by Geely and top-tier investors.
  • Geely Auto will hold 50%+ of the voting power upon completing an IPO. ZEEKR’s last round was a $750M Series A in February 2023 at a $13B post-money valuation. 

Taste Gourmet Q2 2023, Far Better Than Expectations 5.3x PE, 27% Mkt Cap In Cash, 9% Yield

By Sameer Taneja

  • Taste Gourmet (8371 HK) reported Q2 profits 25% over our expectations at 30 mn HKD (81% YoY), led by net margin expansion to 11.2% (vs. our expectation of 8.8%)
  • The net cash of 133 mn HKD represents around 27% of market capitalization, which is used to increase the restaurant count in HK from 42 to 48 QoQ.
  • The company declared a 5.5 cent interim dividend (Vs. 4.8 cents last year). We believe they can declare a 12.5/13 cent dividend for FY24 (March-End)

Onward on the March: More Profit from Japanese Apparel Firms

By Michael Causton

  • Some of Japan’s big apparel firms are making a comeback, and only some of the recent growth is coming from department stores.
  • Most of the revival is thanks to direct sales through e-commerce and stores, and the increasingly seamless links between them.
  • Onward Holdings is one of the leaders in this renaissance and is delivering the same profits as it used to with 30% higher sales.

Morning Views Asia: SJM Holdings

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Consumer: Ajinomoto Co, Amara Holdings, ZEEKR, Haier Smart Home , Takashimaya, Pure Gym Limited, Tele Columbus AG and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Ajinomoto Placement – Share Buyback Should Aid Group Selling
  • Amara Holdings (AMA SP): Albert Teo Family/Dymon Asia’s Unconditional S$0.60 Offer
  • Zeekr Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Remains Highly Dependent on Geely
  • Haier Smart Home (6690 HK): Stays Smart
  • Amara (AMA SP): Teo Family’s Lifetime High Offer
  • Takashimaya: At Last a Revival in Department Store Profits
  • Puregym – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Tele Columbus – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics


Ajinomoto Placement – Share Buyback Should Aid Group Selling

By Clarence Chu

  • A group of shareholders are looking to raise US$444m by trimming their respective stakes in Ajinomoto Co (2802 JP) via an extended secondary follow-on.
  • While the selldown doesn’t seem particularly well flagged, it won’t be a very large one to digest at just eight days of three month ADV. 
  • In a bid to cushion the selldown, Ajinomoto plans to buyback its stock to the tune of 10m shares, which would amount to 80% of the base shares on offer. 

Amara Holdings (AMA SP): Albert Teo Family/Dymon Asia’s Unconditional S$0.60 Offer

By Arun George

  • Amara Holdings (AMA SP) has disclosed a voluntary unconditional offer from Dymon Asia and the Albert Teo Family at S$0.60 per share, a 30.4% premium to the last close price. 
  • On 17 June, Amara received a written notification from Mr Albert Teo Hock Chuan (CEO) and Ms Susan Teo Geok Tin (Company Secretary) that they are mulling an offer. 
  • The offer price is final. The offer is attractive and marginally below the ten-year high. Hitting the 90% compulsory acquisition threshold implies a minority acceptance rate of 79.3%.

Zeekr Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Remains Highly Dependent on Geely

By Sumeet Singh

  • ZEEKR, a premium EV brand by Geely Auto (175 HK), aims to raise around US$500m in its US listing.
  • Zeekr was formed in Mar 2021 as a JV between Geely and its founder. Its first model was launched in Apr 21 with deliveries starting in Oct 21.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Haier Smart Home (6690 HK): Stays Smart

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Haier Smart Home (6690 HK) is less exposed to China’s real estate market than one would have thought. Despite poor property industry, HSH still generated 12.9% earnings growth in 3Q23.
  • We are delighted to see further margin pick-up in 2Q23-3Q23, thanks to digitalisation and better efficiency. We believe such a trend can be sustained over the next 12-18 months. 
  • More innovative products will drive market share, and better margin can support a 13% 3-year earnings CAGR. ROE is high at 17-8% despite net cash (8.8% of share price).   

Amara (AMA SP): Teo Family’s Lifetime High Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back in mid-June, hotel and investment property play Amara Holdings (AMA SP) gained 38% over three consecutive days on news of a possible Offer from its controlling shareholders.
  • The Teo family controls ~51% of shares out. No price was mentioned. This development was discussed in Amara Holdings Gains On Possible Offer.
  • After shares were halted on the 10th November, Amara has now announced a best-and-final unconditional cash Offer at S$0.60/share, a chunky 53.8% to undisturbed and a lifetime high.

Takashimaya: At Last a Revival in Department Store Profits

By Michael Causton

  • Takashimaya saw a strong increase in sales in 1H2023, helping profit rise to record levels with much of the growth coming from clothing and expects similar for the full year. 
  • Unlike many rivals, the department store is not at all sanguine about the prospects for continued growth in luxury sales and the inbound tourist market – calling it a bubble.
  • It is instead emphasising profit growth over higher sales by targeting locals through store upgrades and better cost performance clothing – while also closing stores that are no longer viable.

Puregym – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

  • Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
  • We assess PureGym’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Social and Governance scores. The company has a “Weak” score for the Environmental pillar. Controversies are “Immaterial”, but Disclosure is “Weak”.
  • PureGym is the second-largest gym and fitness operator in Europe by number of gyms

Tele Columbus – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

  • Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
  • We assess Tele Columbus’ ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Social and Governance scores. The company has a “Strong” score for the Environmental pillar. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.
  • Tele Columbus (TC) is Germany’s third-largest cable operator, offering cable TV, broadband Internet and fixed-line telephony services.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Japan Best Rescue System Co, Ajinomoto Co, Shidax Corp, Vinda International, Takara Holdings, Hyundai Home Shopping Network, KT&G Corporation, Zeekr, China Feihe and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Best Rescue (2453) MBO at ¥1,000; High Premium, Low Multiple, No Money For Synergies or Growth
  • Ajinomoto (2802) Secondary Offering (Cross-Holder Unwind) Matched Against Large Buyback
  • Shidax (4837) – Mgmt Lowers F’casts So Family Can MBO Minorities Cheap. Offensive Governance.
  • Vinda International (3331 HK): Essity’s Stake Attracts More Potential Bidders
  • StubWorld: Takara Trading “Rich” As Bio Cuts Forecast Earnings
  • KOSPI200 Rebalance in December 2023 Highlighted by Locals
  • KT&G: A New Shareholder Return Policy Worth 2.8 Trillion Won Over Next 3 Years
  • Zeekr Pre-IPO – The Positives – Has Been Growing Very Fast While Meeting Its Targets
  • China Feihe (6186 HK):  Year-Of-The-Dragon Trade
  • Japan Best Rescue System (2453 JP): MBK Partners Backed MBO Tender Offer at JPY1,000


Japan Best Rescue (2453) MBO at ¥1,000; High Premium, Low Multiple, No Money For Synergies or Growth

By Travis Lundy

  • This MBO by MBK is a strong premium because of a low recent price, but it pays a low P/FCF multiple for growth, and no synergies counted.
  • Yet another MBO where insiders and friends take advantage of structural inferiority of minority shareholders. Something Should Be Done.
  • What do Minority Shareholders in Japan Say When They Meet Death? “OK, Today it is then.” (with apologies to Game Of Thrones).

Ajinomoto (2802) Secondary Offering (Cross-Holder Unwind) Matched Against Large Buyback

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, Ajinomoto Co (2802 JP) announced a large secondary offering of 14.3mm shares (2.75% of shs out). At last price that is ¥82bn.
  • At the same time, they announced a 10mm share (1.92%) ¥40bn buyback to be conducted from the delivery date of the Offering through 31 March 2024. 
  • Over time, there would be some index upweight as float increases. On a net basis, this is a small deal on a low vol stock with a semiconductor story lurking.

Shidax (4837) – Mgmt Lowers F’casts So Family Can MBO Minorities Cheap. Offensive Governance.

By Travis Lundy

  • Shidax had a Good Governance Moment last year. The stock is up 40-odd% since last year’s GGM, but now the Board, so good last year, has tripped up. 
  • The family and main shareholder – part of last year’s GGM – have decided to bully the Board into accepting an MBO at the wrong price. 
  • Management lowers forecasts without telling anyone. Bidders say “Synergies LaLaLa!” Board says “Ohh la la!” Nobody counts the synergies. Bidder buys at low multiple of newly lowered forecasts. Minorities Lose. 

Vinda International (3331 HK): Essity’s Stake Attracts More Potential Bidders

By Arun George

  • Bloomberg reported Asia Pulp & Paper is the latest party to have expressed interest in acquiring Essity (ESSITYB SS)’s controlling Vinda International (3331 HK) stake at more than HK$20 per share.
  • Vinda has three substantial shareholders. We think the most likely structure is a bidder acquiring Essity’s stake, which would trigger a mandatory general offer.
  • Vinda’s recent update points to improving growth and margins. Peers and historical multiples imply a fair price range of HK$21-26 per share, a 7-32% premium to the last close.

StubWorld: Takara Trading “Rich” As Bio Cuts Forecast Earnings

By David Blennerhassett

  • On an implied stub and simple ratio, Takara Holdings (2531 JP) is at a decade-plus high to 60.9%-held Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP).
  • Preceding my comments on Takara are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

KOSPI200 Rebalance in December 2023 Highlighted by Locals

By Douglas Kim

  • This article discusses the potential inclusions and exclusions of KOSPI200 rebalance inDecember 2023 (especially those that are highlighted by the locals).
  • Stocks that are expected to be added to the KOSPI200 index include Posco DX, HD Hyundai Electric, Sam-A Aluminum, TCC Steel, and Dentium. 
  • Stocks that are expected to be excluded in the KOSPI200 index Include Zinus, Handsome, Cuckoo Homesys, Taekwang Industrial, and Hyundai Home Shopping.

KT&G: A New Shareholder Return Policy Worth 2.8 Trillion Won Over Next 3 Years

By Douglas Kim

  • KT&G announced a new shareholder return policy worth 2.8 trillion won (including dividend payout of 1.8 trillion won and treasury shares purchase/cancellation of 1.0 trillion won) over next three years.
  • In addition, the company plans to cancel about 7.5% of the company’s existing treasury shares which represents about 142 billion won (1.2% of outstanding shares). 
  • Although this 2.8 trillion won in shareholder return policy is large, the company could have announced even larger shareholder return policy, including cancellation of its entire treasury shares. 

Zeekr Pre-IPO – The Positives – Has Been Growing Very Fast While Meeting Its Targets

By Sumeet Singh

  • Zeekr, a premium EV brand by Geely Auto (175 HK) , aims to raise around US$500m in its US listing.
  • Zeekr was formed in Mar 2021 as a JV between Geely and its founder. Its first model was launched in Apr 21 with deliveries starting in Oct 21.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

China Feihe (6186 HK):  Year-Of-The-Dragon Trade

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • China Feihe (6186 HK) saw major derating (from around 20x PE to the current high-single-digit PE) coupled with sizable earnings drop (-28% yoy in 2022/-25% yoy in 1H23) since 2022. 
  • The investment thesis or trade thesis here is a play on the rise of new born babies in 2024, the year of the dragon in China. 
  • The margin of safety here is also high given a 7% forward dividend yield (Feihe has pledged to increase dividend payout ratio going forward).

Japan Best Rescue System (2453 JP): MBK Partners Backed MBO Tender Offer at JPY1,000

By Arun George

  • Japan Best Rescue System Co (2453 JP)/JBR has recommended an MBK Partners-backed MBO tender offer of JPY1,000 per share, a 53.8% premium to the undisturbed price (13 November). 
  • The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 66.67% ownership ratio.
  • Irrevocables to accept the offer represent a 53.62% ownership ratio. The minimum acceptance condition requires a 28.1% minority acceptance rate, which is helped by the significant premium. 

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Daily Brief Consumer: IJTT Co., Ltd., ASICS Corp, Li Auto , BYD , Great Wall Motor, Ninebot , Benesse Holdings, Sheng Siong, Wolters Kluwer Nv and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • IJTT (7315 JP): SPARX Group’s Tender Offer at JPY812
  • Asics (7936) | Running the Numbers
  • IJTT (7315 JP) – A Truly Offensive Takeover Price and Process To Buy Out Minorities at 0.46x Book
  • China Consumption Weekly (13Nov2023): Li Auto, NIO, Alibaba, Best, Meituan, KE
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 10 Nov 23): Back To Net Sales (Ping An, Eoptolink, Innolight)
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 10 Nov): Bad Week for H | A Across the Board Despite SB/NB Going “Right Way”
  • STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact Expected on the Changes
  • Merger Arb Mondays (13 Nov) – Benesse, JSR, IJTT, Shidax, Cybernet, CMIC, IRC, Hollysys, Healius
  • Sheng Siong (SSG SP) – Great Execution So Far, Maintaining >20% ROCE
  • Wolters Kluwer: Management Confident About 2024


IJTT (7315 JP): SPARX Group’s Tender Offer at JPY812

By Arun George

  • IJTT Co., Ltd. (7315 JP) has recommended Sparx Group (8739 JP)’s offer of JPY812 per share, an 18.5% and 16.0% premium to the undisturbed (9 November) and last close price, respectively. 
  • The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 23.48% ownership ratio.
  • Despite the modest premium, the offer represents a high five-year share price. The minimum acceptance condition requires a 41.3% minority acceptance rate. 

Asics (7936) | Running the Numbers

By Mark Chadwick

  • ASICS reports solid Q3 results, featuring a 14.5% rise in net sales, 31% rise in operating profit, improved gross margin, and digital growth.
  • ASICS revises FY23 outlook with increased sales and operating profit. New OP guidance of Y52b is inline with consensus
  • Market to focus on new Mid-Term Plan (end-Nov). Valuation at 16x forecast EBIT still a discount to average 18x multiple.

IJTT (7315 JP) – A Truly Offensive Takeover Price and Process To Buy Out Minorities at 0.46x Book

By Travis Lundy

  • A Fund named Mirai Creation Fund, investing in five “fields” “vital to the future” (“intelligent technologies”, robotics, hydrogen-economy, electrification, and “new materials”) will buy out casting/forging mainstay IJTT. 
  • The look and feel of this fund screams “lead me to the future”, so of course, the buy-out is being done with 26% equity, 74% debt. Levered is good.
  • That’s to buy at 0.46x PBR. Equity check is 12% of net assets. The Board says “yes” because it will lead to “improvement of corporate value”. Unfortunately, not for shareholders. 

China Consumption Weekly (13Nov2023): Li Auto, NIO, Alibaba, Best, Meituan, KE

By Ming Lu

  • Li Auto’s revenue increased by 271% YoY and vehicle deliveries increased by 296% YoY in 3Q23.
  • NIO will dismiss 10% of its employees and even 20% in some departments.
  • We do not believe Alibaba will take over the whole Best Inc.

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 10 Nov 23): Back To Net Sales (Ping An, Eoptolink, Innolight)

By Travis Lundy

  • This is the somewhat-brand-spanking-new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.
  • The same five names continue at the top of the gross flows list – Kweichow Moutai, Contemporary Amperex, Wuliangye Yibin, Foxconn Industrial, and BYD. Nets are still smaller.
  • Last week, NORTHBOUND returned to net OUTflow after the previous week saw the first net buy in 3mos. This week saw RMB 7.95bn of net NORTHBOUND selling.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 10 Nov): Bad Week for H | A Across the Board Despite SB/NB Going “Right Way”

By Travis Lundy

  • The New and Better (10 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
  • HUGE underperformance of Hs vs As across the board. A horrible week and it is not clear why. I doubt it was the short-selling warning or increase in haircuts.
  • SOUTHBOUND was a net buy and NORTHBOUND a net sell and the largest net SB flows on H/A pairs were the high-div SOEs.

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact Expected on the Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period complete, we expect one change for the STAR50 INDEX in December if the index committee continues to use a 6-month minimum listing history.
  • With net inflows to mainland China ETFs over the last few months, passive trackers will need to trade between 9-25 days of ADV on the potential add and delete.
  • SMIC (688981 CH) will be capped and there will be reverse funding flows on the index constituents. One-way turnover is estimated at 1.8% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY2,580m.

Merger Arb Mondays (13 Nov) – Benesse, JSR, IJTT, Shidax, Cybernet, CMIC, IRC, Hollysys, Healius

By Arun George


Sheng Siong (SSG SP) – Great Execution So Far, Maintaining >20% ROCE

By Sameer Taneja

  • Sheng Siong (SSG SP) continues to maintain steady, low, single-digit growth in revenue and flat profitability despite a challenging environment. 
  • Inflation trends reversing due to lower power costs in 2024, and an improvement in its product mix could lead to increased low double-digit profitability (10-11% YoY). 
  • Trading at 18.5x/17.6x FY23e/24e PE and 3.9% dividend yield, the stock remains on our watchlist if a correction leads to a favorable entry point.

Wolters Kluwer: Management Confident About 2024

By Alexis Dwek

  • Wolters Kluwer is executing on the second year of its strategic plan, with bold steps taken during the past few months
  • The business model is solid, with recurring revenues totaling 80% of the group’s total revenues. 
  • Management is positive about the pipeline, the retention rates, and the promising net promoter scores seen in H2; the key element for determining revenue growth in 2024

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Daily Brief Consumer: Benesse Holdings, Descente Ltd, Shidax Corp and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Benesse Holdings (9783 JP): EQT Backed Pre-Conditional MBO Tender Offer at JPY2,600
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Korea’s Short Selling, Hollysys, Sankyo, Descente
  • Shidax Corporation (4837 JP): MBO Tender Offer at JPY800
  • Benesse (9783) MBO – ¥2600/Share Is Up 40+% But It Is Still the Wrong Price


Benesse Holdings (9783 JP): EQT Backed Pre-Conditional MBO Tender Offer at JPY2,600

By Arun George

  • Benesse Holdings (9783 JP) has recommended an EQT-backed pre-conditional MBO offer of JPY2,600 per share, a 45.1% and 36.3% premium to the undisturbed price and last close, respectively.
  • The pre-conditions primarily relate to Japanese and Chinese approvals, which can be waived. Chinese SAMR approval should be forthcoming as education is not a geopolitical fraught sector.
  • The offer is long-dated and opens in early February 2024. While not a knockout bid, the offer is fair in the context of Benesse’s muted outlook. 

Last Week in Event SPACE: Korea’s Short Selling, Hollysys, Sankyo, Descente

By David Blennerhassett

  • The Korean Financial Services Commission and the Financial Supervisory Service held a press briefing, unveiling the comprehensive prohibition of short selling from the 6th November, until June 30th next year.
  • Recco or Ascendant for Hollysys (HOLI US)? Ascendant could easily get >50% of shares out, and spill the board. Recco, with no shares held, looks to have a weaker hand. 
  • Sankyo (6417 JP) is cheap. It will never trade at 20x expected PER because of the nature of the business; right now, on an ex-cash basis, it trades 1.6x ex-cash PER.

Shidax Corporation (4837 JP): MBO Tender Offer at JPY800

By Arun George

  • Shidax Corp (4837 JP) has recommended an MBO tender offer of JPY800 per share, a 10.3% premium to the undisturbed price (9 November).
  • After the settlement of the tender offer, Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP) will acquire a 66.0% stake in the offeror by way of third-party allotment at the tender offer price.
  • Despite the skinny premium, the offer is just shy of the ten-year share price high. The minimum acceptance condition requires a 12.5% minority acceptance rate.

Benesse (9783) MBO – ¥2600/Share Is Up 40+% But It Is Still the Wrong Price

By Travis Lundy

  • Just before the close Friday, the Nikkei reported Benesse Holdings (9783 JP) would be the subject of an MBO in order to restructure the flagging private shinken-zemi business. And grow.
  • It turns out it is EQT and the Fukutake family at ¥2600/share – a 2-year high. Wow. It is also a ridiculously cheap price given the assets and money flows.
  • I expect this may get some people upset as the valuation methodology is dodgy and the artful (hehehe) Balance Sheet has some easter eggs, and spotted pumpkins… or something. 

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Daily Brief Consumer: Shidax Corp, Eclat Textile Company, MGM China Holdings and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Shidax (4837) – Nikkei Scoops MBO (Anncmt Post-Close), Family Wants to Buy at ¥800 Which Is Too Low
  • Eclat Textile (1476 TT):  Start Of Upcycle
  • Weekly Wrap – 10 Nov 2023


Shidax (4837) – Nikkei Scoops MBO (Anncmt Post-Close), Family Wants to Buy at ¥800 Which Is Too Low

By Travis Lundy

  • 13mos ago I wrote about Shidax Corp (4837 JP) which an interesting restructuring past and a refreshing governance outlook going forward in Shidax Outlook May Change – Better Governance Matters
  • The stock was up 25% in that period to yesterday. Today, a Nikkei article mid-day suggests the Shida family will launch an MBO. Stock popped. Earnings out after the close.
  • The article suggests a take-private MBO with Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP) again supporting the deal. 30 minutes ago Shidax responded saying an offer was put forth at ¥800/share.

Eclat Textile (1476 TT):  Start Of Upcycle

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Eclat Textile Company (1476 TT) is a vertically integrated textile company, with around 20% net profit margin, similar to Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK).
  • The company just reported 3Q23 results, with sales down 26% yoy and net profit down 28% yoy.  Starting the next quarter 4Q23, the company is expected to return to growth.
  • The company now trades at 23x 2024E earnings.  I believe the valuation is reasonable as growth returns, and there are potential upside catalysts. 

Weekly Wrap – 10 Nov 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Softbank Group
  2. Sunny Optical Technology Group
  3. Seazen (Formerly Future Land)
  4. Melco Resorts & Entertainment
  5. Yanlord Land

and more…


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Daily Brief Consumer: Li Auto , Doms, Inter Parfums, MGM China Holdings and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • [Li Auto Inc. (LI US, BUY, TP US$47) Target Price Change]: Li’s MEGA Can Change the MPV Landscape
  • DOMS Industries Pre-IPO – Strong Earnings Growth but Will Probably Peter Out
  • IPAR: Sales Trajectory Ahead of Estimates
  • Morning Views Asia: MGM China Holdings, Softbank Group, Sunny Optical Technology Group


[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, BUY, TP US$47) Target Price Change]: Li’s MEGA Can Change the MPV Landscape

By Eric Wen

  • Two days before Huawei and Chery releasing their Luxeed S7 sedan to rival Model 3, LI unveiled the technical details of its MPV entry MEGA; 
  • We see MEGA taking a meaningful market share from BYD’s Denza D9, GM’s GL8, GAC’s Trumpchi M8, all selling ~10K a month. We raise MEGA’s 2024 shipment to 57K;
  • We raise LI’s TP from US$40 to US$47 and maintain BUY.

DOMS Industries Pre-IPO – Strong Earnings Growth but Will Probably Peter Out

By Sumeet Singh

  • Doms (DOMS IN) is looking to raise around US$140m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • DOMS is a leading player and brand in India’s stationery and art products market. It designs, manufactures, and sells a wide range of products, primarily under its flagship brand ‘DOMS’.
  • In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

IPAR: Sales Trajectory Ahead of Estimates

By Hamed Khorsand

  • IPAR benefited from consumers continuing to purchase fragrances in the third quarter and retailers beginning to stock inventory for the holiday shopping season
  • IPAR reported third quarter sales of $368.0 million in line with what the Company had previously disclosed in October
  • IPAR has several new product introductions in 2024 and begins to generate sales from Roberto Cavalli and Lacoste brands as well, which should result in IPAR growing sales in 2024

Morning Views Asia: MGM China Holdings, Softbank Group, Sunny Optical Technology Group

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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