Category

Consumer

Daily Brief Consumer: PDD Holdings, Soybean Active Contract, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • [Blue Lotus Logistics Sector Update]: Overseas E-Commerce Brews New Logistics Players
  • [Counting Beans #3]: Soybean Price Remains Solid But Headwinds On The Horizon
  • Key to Promote Diversity Isn’t Company’s Size but Rather Manager’s Judgment and Ability to Execute


[Blue Lotus Logistics Sector Update]: Overseas E-Commerce Brews New Logistics Players

By Eric Wen

  • Ex-China e-commerce conducted by Chinese e-commerce platform will rise from 2022 GMV of US$ 61bn to US$ 297bn in 2025, with Pinduoduo, Alibaba, SHEIN and TikTok leading the charge.
  • These companies, however, are incubating their own last mile partners. The political uncertainty of Chinese e-commerce overseas is hindering development of the industry;
  • We see J&T as the main beneficiary of Chinese e-commerce overseas, which must eventually undergo an infrastructure upgrade…

[Counting Beans #3]: Soybean Price Remains Solid But Headwinds On The Horizon

By Pranay Yadav

  • Brazil’s weather forecast remains mixed on showers with heavy rains to arrive only in January. Rainfall in Brazil’s key agricultural region.
  • U.S. soybean net sales show a significant uptick, but recent lack of large export sales could signal a slowdown in demand.
  • Asset managers reduce long positions in soybean futures and options, showing a shift towards a bearish market outlook but prices remain resilient above USc 1,300.

Key to Promote Diversity Isn’t Company’s Size but Rather Manager’s Judgment and Ability to Execute

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The efforts of SMEs aren’t initiatives for disclosure by listed companies, but measures born out of situations that compelled them to promote diversity as integral part of their business operations.
  • Not only SMEs, but also listed companies with management keenly aware of business risks could promote diversity initiatives that are rooted in their business without taking time to make decisions.
  • The goal should be to make human capital and diversity a core competence rooted in the business, not a passive initiative such as doing it for disclosure.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Li Ning, Aditya Vision, Mitsubishi Shokuhin and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HK CEO & Director Dealings (29 Dec 2023): Li Ning, Meitu
  • Postcard from Patna | Breaking Sterotypes
  • Retail Media: A Major New Income Stream Even for Wholesalers


HK CEO & Director Dealings (29 Dec 2023): Li Ning, Meitu

By David Blennerhassett

  • The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website
  • Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
  • The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight is Li Ning (2331 HK) and Meitu Inc (1357 HK).

Postcard from Patna | Breaking Sterotypes

By Pranav Bhavsar


Retail Media: A Major New Income Stream Even for Wholesalers

By Michael Causton

  • Seven Eleven and Familymart have already sent panic through the offices of major advertising agencies by setting up their own retail media networks. 
  • Now, Mitsubishi Shokuhin will do the same, using its trading company connections and  its existing ties to 10,000 clients at either end of the supply chain.
  • To personalise ads, it is working with the data analysis of geolocation company Unerry. 

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Daily Brief Consumer: Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Shenzhou Intl (2313 HK):  Nike Guidance Cut Presents An Opportunity
  • Companies Keen to Reduce Administrative Costs, but Reluctant to Provide Convenience to Shareholders


Shenzhou Intl (2313 HK):  Nike Guidance Cut Presents An Opportunity

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Nike (NKE US) reported 2QFY24 results last week with a guidance cut, as the company cut FY24 full-year sales guidance to around +1%, compared to +mid-single-digit in the previous guidance. 
  • Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK) saw its stock drop by 8% the following day, given that Nike is Shenzhou’s most important customer, making up 30% of Shenzhou’s sales. 
  • Nike’s inventory is down another 14% yoy, and down high-single-digit compared to the previous quarter 1QFY24. 

Companies Keen to Reduce Administrative Costs, but Reluctant to Provide Convenience to Shareholders

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Not much progress has been made in the early disclosure of convocation notices. The key to even earlier disclosure of convocation notices is the moving up of earnings announcement dates.
  • Overseas investors require that all materials in the notice of convocation be provided translated in English, and only 27.3% of prime market listed companies have responded.
  • Few companies file their annual securities reports prior to AGMs. This can be taken as companies’ intention to provide as little detailed information as possible to shareholders prior to AGMs.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Fujitsu General, IJTT Co., Ltd., Namyang Dairy Products Co and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Fujitsu General (6755) – Fujitsu Wants Out, May Force the Issue
  • IJTT (7315 JP): Risk/Reward as SPARX Bumps to JPY850
  • Namyang Dairy Products: Long Legal Dispute to Be Finally Decided by Supreme Court in January 2024


Fujitsu General (6755) – Fujitsu Wants Out, May Force the Issue

By Travis Lundy

  • In 2019, it became apparent Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP) wanted to sell down its stakes in non-core businesses (Shinko Electric, Fujitsu General, and FDK), and move on to better things.
  • In early January 2023, a Bloomberg article suggested a sale process. A 20 Jan 2023 article suggested Fujitsu General’s auction was imminent. I wrote a piece. It was not bullish.
  • The stock rose a bit, then fell 40+% through last week. Now another article suggests some urgency at Fujitsu. That changes things.

IJTT (7315 JP): Risk/Reward as SPARX Bumps to JPY850

By Arun George

  • IJTT Co., Ltd. (7315 JP) has recommended Sparx Group (8739 JP)’s revised tender offer of JPY850, 4.7% premium to its previous JPY812 offer. The revised offer has been declared final.
  • The Isuzu Motors (7202 JP) share repurchase price has risen 4.0% from JPY677 to JPY704. The tender closes on 15 January 2024. All other terms are unchanged.
  • The shares are trading above the revised terms. A final offer and no competing bidder points to an unfavourable risk/reward profile – a 21% downside on a deal break. 

Namyang Dairy Products: Long Legal Dispute to Be Finally Decided by Supreme Court in January 2024

By Douglas Kim

  • The Korean Supreme Court’s ruling on the stock transfer lawsuit between Hahn & Company private equity fund and Namyang Dairy’s Chairman Hong Won-Sik is confirmed for 4 January 2024.
  • The expectation of Hahn & Co winning this legal dispute has positively impacted the share price of Namyang Dairy Products.
  • The higher probability scenario is for the Korean Supreme Court to rule in favor of Hahn & Co, agreeing with the decisions of the two lower courts in Korea.

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Daily Brief Consumer: IJTT Co., Ltd., Lawson Inc, Taste Gourmet, Trip.com, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • IJTT (7315 JP) – Truly Offensive Takeover Price Gets Bumped, Offensively
  • Convenience Wear: Familymart Competes with Uniqlo in Basics
  • 23 Dividend Yielding Mid Caps – Report Card For 2023
  • Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | No “Pent-Up Demand”! | Weak YTD Returns, Too | (December 2023)
  • Demand for Disclosure to Answer the Goal of Promoting Sustainability to Increase Corporate Value


IJTT (7315 JP) – Truly Offensive Takeover Price Gets Bumped, Offensively

By Travis Lundy

  • IJTT Co., Ltd. (7315 JP) was perhaps one of the lower-priced parent takeovers (Isuzu remains central to the bidder post-buyout) at 0.46x book. Today, the last day, it got bumped.
  • The new price is ¥850/share vs ¥812/share. +4.7% and a whopping 0.48x book now. ¥850 is where the stock traded just before the announcement. It immediately jumped to ¥875/share.
  • It appears Isuzu is not getting any more money out of this, but they should be OK. They are buying back in at 0.48x book. With leverage. 

Convenience Wear: Familymart Competes with Uniqlo in Basics

By Michael Causton

  • The almost viral popularity of Familymart’s line of basic clothing items continues to grow and shows the real potential for convenience stores to diversify and adapt. 
  • Backed by Itochu, Familymart has expanded the product range and added new, limited edition items and brand collaborations, creating a success story that Seven Eleven may find hard to emulate.
  • Lawson, however, is controlled by Mitsubishi Corp which happens to have a clothing production arm that was behind the early success of Uniqlo and Adastria.

23 Dividend Yielding Mid Caps – Report Card For 2023

By Sameer Taneja

  • We compile a report card for dividend-yielding mid-caps that filter out on favorable characteristics of having net cash, decent ROEs, growth, etc. 
  • It’s been a disappointing year in share price performance owing to the negativity surrounding China and soft business performance in some cases, but there have been some bright spots.
  • We help provide a comprehensive list of our updates on some names and an outlook for 2024. It’s our last insight for 2023, so happy new year everyone!

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | No “Pent-Up Demand”! | Weak YTD Returns, Too | (December 2023)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • “Pent-Up demand”? No signs of it anywhere in outbound or domestic metrics
  • Sluggish outbound demand, capacity trajectories continued to lag in November
  • YTD share performance weak, mirrors disappointing recovery in travel activity

Demand for Disclosure to Answer the Goal of Promoting Sustainability to Increase Corporate Value

By Aki Matsumoto

  • 60% companies have established policies to promote human capital. Companies will be asked whether their goals are reasonable and whether their actual measures and progress toward those goals are sufficient.
  • Since many companies have set a target of 14-15% for % female managerial positions around 2025, it makes us worry whether they can really achieve 30% target in 2030.
  • Few companies have disclosed specific impact estimates under certain conditions. It’s expected that some proactive companies will push others to do the same regarding “Scope 3” in the future.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Guangzhou Automobile Group, ASICS Corp, KOSDAQ 150 Index, International Housewares Retail and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Dec 23): Wide Premia Narrow; Narrow Premia Widen. Stay Long Hs Vs As
  • Asics (7936) | Footwear Fallout as Nike’s Q2 Sends Sector Shockwaves
  • KOSDAQ 150’s New Fast Entry Rule: Top 30 by Market Cap in 15 Trading Days Post-Listing
  • International Housewares Retail Company Limited (1373 HK): H1 FY24 Off To a Bad Start


A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Dec 23): Wide Premia Narrow; Narrow Premia Widen. Stay Long Hs Vs As

By Travis Lundy

  • The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
  • SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows were both sells, respectively, but liquid Hs with H/A pairs OUT-perform As on average by 100+bp. Liquidation by overseas investors feels finished.
  • STILL time to go long Hs vs As for the new year at 52wk wide discounts.

Asics (7936) | Footwear Fallout as Nike’s Q2 Sends Sector Shockwaves

By Mark Chadwick

  • Nike’s Q2 results lead to a 12% drop in its shares, affecting sector peers Onon, Skechers, and Asics with significant declines.
  • Challenging trading conditions in China and Europe, coupled with a subdued digital traffic outlook from Nike, raise broader concerns for the sector.
  • Asics stock declines 20% post-Nike’s fall, presenting an attractive buying opportunity with an estimated 20% upside, positioning Asics as a cost-effective play in the global performance running market.

KOSDAQ 150’s New Fast Entry Rule: Top 30 by Market Cap in 15 Trading Days Post-Listing

By Sanghyun Park

  • Fast entry is now permissible for KOSDAQ 150. Within 15 trading days post-listing, the average daily total market cap must rank among the top 30 ordinary stocks on KOSDAQ.
  • KOSDAQ 150 will also allow newly established entities in corporate spin-offs, following KOSPI 200’s model. Inclusion is granted if the subsidiary ranks within KOSDAQ 150’s top 160 (80%).
  • The ₩1.5T cutoff for KOSDAQ 150 fast entry suggests potential candidates nearing this threshold, like Oasis, Kurly (and maybe Kakao Entertainment).

International Housewares Retail Company Limited (1373 HK): H1 FY24 Off To a Bad Start

By Sameer Taneja

  • H1 FY24 (May-Oct 2023) was off to a sluggish start for the company, with a 4.7%/35% decline in revenue/adjusted NPAT. 
  • The company cited soft demand, loss of business days due to inclement weather, one-offs in relocation or warehouses to efficient locations, and increased staff costs for poor profits.
  • Post the correction, the stock trades at a trailing PE of 11x and dividend yield of 8%, but we will have to wait further out as business conditions are worse. 

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Daily Brief Consumer: TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Maybe Management Is Finally Becoming Aware of the Cost of Listing


Maybe Management Is Finally Becoming Aware of the Cost of Listing

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Many companies had the goal of IPOs as a means to save taxes rather than growth, but it’s good to seriously consider go private for the sake of their shareholders.
  • This is due to companies’ awareness of listing costs, such as demands from overseas investors for improved governance and requests from TSE for “management with awareness of the stock price.”
  • Another issue that needs to be examined is the loss of growth and profitability for companies that are delisted and then relisted.

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Daily Brief Consumer: GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT, Coupang , O Ta Precision Industry Co and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) – Plumbing for a More Certain Future
  • [Coupang Inc. (CPNG US, SELL, TP US$14.1) TP Change]: Farfetch May Glitter, but It Isn’t Gold
  • Asian Dividend Gems: O-Ta Precision Industry


GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) – Plumbing for a More Certain Future

By Angus Mackintosh

  • GoTo senior management hosted an analyst call last week to provide further details on both the reasons behind the Tokopedia sale and the potential synergies and benefits of the move. 
  • After the deal completes, GoTo will cede all management control but will receive a revenue stream from core GTV, which excludes digital products and certain big-ticket items.
  • Plumbing for this deal effectively de-risks its exposure to e-commerce given it is not required to inject any new capital but it does take away future optionality on Tokpedia’s growth.  

[Coupang Inc. (CPNG US, SELL, TP US$14.1) TP Change]: Farfetch May Glitter, but It Isn’t Gold

By Ying Pan

  • CPNG will provide Farfetch with a bridge loan to save it from default. In exchange, CPNG acquires Farfetch business and its US$ 460mn+ net debt.
  • For Farfetch to achieve profitability, CPNG will need to conduct major layoffs and cancel brand deals, but both are difficult to achieve, in our view.
  • CPNG only found limited overseas success in Taiwan, and EU poses an even greater challenge. We cut TP to US$ 14.1 on increased debt and FCF burden.

Asian Dividend Gems: O-Ta Precision Industry

By Douglas Kim

  • O Ta Precision Industry is a company based in Taiwan that mainly makes golf clubs for global golf equipment branded companies including Titleist, PXG, Mizuno, and Honma.
  • O-Ta Precision’s dividend yield averaged 9.2% annually from 2019 to 2022. Its annual dividend payout averaged 68.5% in the same period.
  • We like the company’s strong niche in the golf club OEM/ODM business with excellent list of customers with its its historically high dividend payout ratio and dividend yields. 

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Daily Brief Consumer: Alibaba Group Holding , SHEIN, Midea Group Co Ltd A, Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt, Carnival Corp and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba’s Eddie Wu, Strategic Leader or Ma’s Partner?
  • 2024 IPOs Pipeline Worldwide (Top 100 Companies)
  • Midea (000333 CH):  Positive Read-Through From Gree’s Profit Alert
  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Rationalising the Lawson Buildout
  • Carnival Corp’s Per Passenger Revenue


Alibaba’s Eddie Wu, Strategic Leader or Ma’s Partner?

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • In the latest wave of management changes, Eddie Wu, Jack Ma’s trusted associate has staged a comeback, securing pivotal roles.
  • We believe this is not a mere coincidence. Jack Ma seems to be orchestrating moves from behind the scenes, with Eddie Wu strategically positioned to represent his influence.
  • The Chinese government’s reaction to Jack Ma’s increased involvement may impact Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)‘s price performance in the short term.

2024 IPOs Pipeline Worldwide (Top 100 Companies)

By Douglas Kim

  • This is our 5th annual edition of the IPOs Pipeline Worldwide (Top 100 Companies) report.
  • After weak global IPO markets in 2022 and 2023, the near term trend for global IPOs continues to remain lackluster.
  • For those investors that closely monitor the global IPO opportunities, this is a good reference insight to check out the largest potential IPOs that could get completed next year.

Midea (000333 CH):  Positive Read-Through From Gree’s Profit Alert

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Gree Electric Appliances (000651 CH) announced a profit alert for FY22 yesterday.  Net profit is expected to increase 10.2% – 19.6% yoy for the whole year.
  • The resilient result of Gree should alleviate concerns of the market that Midea is too correlated with China’s new home sales. 
  • The stock is trading at 10x 2024E earnings compared to an average of 13x over the last 10 years, with earnings likely growing at a high-single-digit pace.

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Rationalising the Lawson Buildout

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya has decided to pare back the velocity of the expansion of Lawson convenience stores as it consolidates its leading position and maximises efficiencies.
  • 4Q2023 saw slower growth in November but December should be stronger, whilst its store expansion for 2023 reached 1,700 new stores, with plans for around 1,300 new stores in 2024.
  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya remains the best way to play the minimarket space in Indonesia. 4Q 2023 numbers should provide a positive catalyst given it is the seasonally high quarter. 

Carnival Corp’s Per Passenger Revenue

By Calcbench

  • Lots of financial analysts and other Calcbench users might be wishing they could sail away on a tropical cruise as we enter the holiday slow season, so perhaps it’s a good time to visit Carnival Corp. ($CCL) and the company’s latest financial performance. 
  • Carnival filed its latest quarterly (and fiscal year-end) earnings release on Thursday, and top-line numbers looked pretty good for a company still recovering from the pandemic’s apocalyptic effects four years ago.
  • Quarterly revenue jumped 40.6 percent from the year-ago period, to $5.4 billion; annual revenue soared 77.5 percent to $21.6 billion. 

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Daily Brief Consumer: Motisons Jewellers , Meituan, LIFULL, Vipshop Holdings and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • All That Glitters Is Not Gold: Forensic Analysis of Motisons
  • [Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$118) Company Update]: Why ByteDance’s Purchase of Eleme Is a Bad Idea?
  • Full Report – Lifull (2120 JP)
  • [Vipshop (VIPS US, BUY, TP US$18.1) TP Change]: Discount Offerings Remain Hot Given Cold Consumption


All That Glitters Is Not Gold: Forensic Analysis of Motisons

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Regulatory Tangles:Promoters faced cricket betting allegations, SEBI penalties, debarment from financial markets and a litany of investigations. Legal and financial risks loom due to regulatory delays and unresolved litigations.
  • Operational and Financial Hurdles:Excessive inventory, delayed payments, and opaque related-party transactions.Weaker margins, ROE, and underutilized manufacturing hint at broader governance frailty.
  • Debt Dilemmas and Transparency Concerns: Heavy reliance on high-interest promoter loans. Governance lapses are reflected in financial metrics, raising questions about transparency and conflicts of interest.

[Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$118) Company Update]: Why ByteDance’s Purchase of Eleme Is a Bad Idea?

By Ying Pan

  • Local news reported an unnamed expert suggesting ByteDance might be buying Eleme for US$7bn, leading to share of Meituan to fall;
  • While we believe (1) buying a food delivery business to complement Douyin’s in-store business makes some sense and…
  • (2) ByteDance has been aggressive in pushing the boundary of its businesses, an entry into domestic food delivery is a daunting challenge that yields very little benefits for ByteDance;

Full Report – Lifull (2120 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • LIFULL runs the LIFULL Home’s real estate website. Compared to its main rival, whose strategy is focused mainly on the quantity of listings, LIFULL’s aim is to achieve greater quality, as measured by the percentage of inquiries that lead to sales for professional real estate clients.
  • While others primarily charge a fixed fee for listings, LIFULL charges a combination of fixed fees and incentive fees based on the number of inquiries received for a listing.
  • Compared to its main rival LIFULL tends to invest more heavily in software development and considerably less on advertising. 

[Vipshop (VIPS US, BUY, TP US$18.1) TP Change]: Discount Offerings Remain Hot Given Cold Consumption

By Ying Pan

  • Amid demand by consumers for cost effective items, we expect that demand for discounted apparel will sustain into 2024…
  • We expect high levels of apparel sales continued in December, as VIPS reported double-digit GMV growth for various types of winter related apparel items during 12/12…
  • China’s cost-conscious spending environment favors VIPS, in our view. We maintain BUY and raise TP to US$ 18.1, implying 7x FY24 non-GAAP P/E.

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