Consumer

• In this insight, we present our top investment ideas in the Apparel & Fashion retail sector, analyzing recent earnings results and key insights from company earnings calls.
• Names discussed include Page Industries (PAG IN), Vedant Fashions (MANYAVAR IN), Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd (ABFRL IN), Arvind Fashions (ARVINDFA IN) and Go Fashion India (GOCOLORS IN). 
• We have a bearish stance on all names except Page Industries (PAG IN).  

• Investment thesis recommends shorting Shake Shack due to declining traffic, comp growth, and new unit productivity
• Stock price has surged despite challenges, trading at over 100x earnings
• Uncertain outlook with activist investor no longer involved and unique smashburger being commoditized, raising doubts about sustainability of growth.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Revenue increased by 8.3% YoY, with the EC business rising 7.0% and the Financial business 10.0%.
• Operating profit rose 89.9% YoY, driven by reduced advertising expenses and a decline in SG&A expenses.
• Financial business segment profit increased 48.9% YoY, with external payments handled growing 13.0% YoY to JPY20.1bn.

Focusrite’s (TUNE’s) FY24 results highlight the negative effects of the most challenging year the CEO has faced. While the company’s main operating market has been difficult, management has continued to invest in development and release new products, which have enabled TUNE to outperform and gain share across all markets in FY24, and should enable it to thrive when conditions improve. With signs of stabilisation in its most important segment, TUNE’s valuation looks attractive.

• Grupo Bimbo’s claim is based on the acquisition of Canada Bread Company from Maple Leaf Foods (MFI CN, not covered).
• Bimbo is seeking over CAD$2bn for alleged fraudulent practices, as Canada Bread has been impacted since 2017 due to a price-fixing investigation within the commercial bread industry by the Competition Bureau.
• Subsequently, Canada Bread paid a CAD$50mn fine in 2023.

• 7&I traded at less than 5x reported EV/EBITDA consistently for roughly 4 years straight, and no one seemed to care or notice.
• Now that it trades close to 9x, there is an overflow of eager financiers and a mile-long line of analysts who will tell you that it is still undervalued.
• This is the stock market equivalent of duct tape and a banana.

• The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
• Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
• The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight include: Geely Auto (175 HK), Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK), and Coastal Greenland (1124 HK).

• Bob Iger, CEO of Disney, discusses the legacy and importance of storytelling at Disney, emphasizing the need to balance heritage and innovation.
• He shares insights on leadership qualities, such as empathy, optimism, and the ability to act decisively, as well as the importance of staying curious and patient.
• Bob also touches on the impact of technology, AI, and the role of creativity in the future of storytelling, highlighting the need to maintain human creativity and caution with AI implementation.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• ABC Technologies has largely completed its due diligence and reiterated a potential offer price of 200p per share, which the TIFS Board is minded to recommend if confirmed. 
• After several extensions, tomorrow November 29 marks the final extension of the PUSU deadline. Spread has tightened over the last trading sessions in anticipation of a firm offer.
• The 200p proposal values TIFS at 4.64x NTM EBITDA, above the 4.55x sector median, reflecting a fair valuation despite industry challenges like Chinese market weakness and fluctuating OEM shares.

• Walmart’s recent performance in the third quarter of the fiscal year 2025 exhibited both strong growth and notable challenges.
• The company achieved a 6.1% increase in sales in constant currency, and profit grew by 9.8%, reflecting Walmart’s ability to manage costs and drive efficiency amid complex global operations.
• Key contributors to the positive results include a 27% increase in e-commerce sales, a 28% growth in advertising, and a 22% rise in membership income, which collectively helped Walmart grow profits faster than sales.

• In Target Corporation’s third-quarter earnings, Target witnessed a healthy 2.4% traffic growth, translating to over 10 million additional transactions compared to last year.
• This is indicative of customer engagement and loyalty, supported by the company’s attractive offerings combining essential services and promotional activities.
• The digital sector also emerged as a strong contender, showcasing an impressive growth of nearly 11%.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Wynn Macau, ReNew Energy, Softbank Group, Vedanta Resources
• In the US, October personal income came in above estimates at 0.6% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.3% p).
• Meanwhile, personal spending slowed to 0.4% m-o-m (0.4% e / 0.6% revised p).

• Adastria Co Ltd (2685 JP) has rebuilt and renamed its online store as it aims to create a major fashion mall to rival the likes of Zozo and Rakuten Fashion.
• Unlike those rivals, it has a chain of stores linked to the mall, an advantage in a market where omnichannel is well supported by customers.
• To boost sales from younger Japanese with fewer savings, it has also tied with Acom Co Ltd (8572 JP) to offer small loans.

• It’s a playbook Kura Sushi has performed numerous times before to shore up the balance sheet. In 2021, the company issued 1.1 million shares of stock at $45 netting proceeds of ~$47 million of which $17 million was used to erase the line of credit extended to them during the pandemic from the parent company.

• The rest was used for CapEx and operating costs. In 2023, the company issued a further 1.3 million shares at $54 per share, netting ~$65 million in proceeds for CapEx and operating costs.

• Following the Q4 earnings in November 2024, an announcement to raise (at $85 per share) a further $64.6 million in proceeds surfaced; once again for CapEx and operating costs.

• Gap Inc. reported its third quarter fiscal 2024 earnings, delivering results that met and, in several instances, surpassed expectations.
• Net sales increased by 2%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of sales growth and contributing to a 1% rise in comparable sales.
• The growth in sales was distributed across its brand portfolio, with Old Navy and Gap showing strong performances, and Athleta experiencing a notable turnaround with a 5% increase in comparable sales.

• The Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) to rid itself of control of the Ito-Yokado, York Benimaru, Akachan Hompo, and Denny’s Japan businesses in York Holdings proceeds apace.
• The First Round of bids is due tomorrow, apparently, and all manner of bidders have assembled. 
• This leads to the question of a deal for the rest of 7&i. If a TradingCo is a natural co-investor for the Ito family (or ACT), so is Berkshire Hathaway.

• Yesterday, beverage maker Vitasoy Intl Holdings (345 HK) announced a 1H25E (Mar Y/E) net profit of HK$171mn, a 4.8% gain yoy. An interim dividend of HK$0.04/share (HK$0.014/share in 1H24), was declared.
• What was absent from the announcement/briefing was any comment on Philip Ng Chee-tat’s and Yeo Hiap Seng (YHS SP)‘s recent buying in Vitasoy.
• Ng, the younger brother of Sino Land (83 HK)‘s chairman Robert Ng Chee-siong, indirectly holds 12.26%, up from 5.22% on the 7th October. The share price is up 104% since.

• NHK reports that Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)‘s first bidding round for a YORK Holdings stake ends on 28 November. The sale provides a third-party valuation benchmark for the asset. 
• It is an incremental positive for the founding family MBO as it supports the post-privatisation strategy and assists in securing bank financing.
• This is an incremental negative for Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) as it shows that the Board believes the restructuring plan will increase shareholder corporate value.  

• Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) a leisure-focused integrated tourism group, is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
• Fosun Tourism was spun off from Fosun International (656 HK) in December 2018. Fosun Int’l currently holds 79.45% of shares out. 
• Fosun Tourism gained ~8% yesterday on the highest volume in over two years. Recent news concerned Temasek-backed CapitaLand Investment (CLI SP) taking a 20-30% stake in Fosun Tourism’s subsidiary Club Med.

• CVC Capital is aiming to raise over US$500m, via selling some of its stake in FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP)in Japan.
• FineToday (FT) is a beauty and personal care company in Asia offering a range of products, including hair care, skin care and body care products.
• In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.

• Gravitation towards businesses with traditional competitive advantages and large reinvestment runways for future outperformance
• Genda’s growth primarily through mergers and acquisitions in the Japanese entertainment industry, taking advantage of the aging population of business owners
• CFO Taiju Watanabe’s background in Goldman Japan Investment Banking and transition to Jinda, highlighting the company’s potential for growth and profitability

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Vitasoy Intl Holdings (345 HK)’s shares surged 19.5% on speculation that billionaire Philip Ng will launch a takeover offer due to recent share purchases.  
• Philip Ng’s stakebuilding suggests three potential outcomes. The likely near-term outcome is that he continues to nudge up his stake and potentially seek Board representation.
• Without the Lo family’s support, a scheme privatisation is impossible. While a voluntary conditional offer is possible, it isn’t very likely, as Vitasoy’s valuation looked frothy at the last close.  

• In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2024 index rebal event.
• Currently, we see three F100 changes and four F250 changes. Some of these index change expectations are related to the changes made to the UK Listing Rules in June 2024.
• The final changes will be decided based on 3rd December 2024 closing prices.

• On 27 November, Hyundai Motor (005380 KS) announced that it plans to buy back 1 trillion won worth of its shares (700 billion won to be cancelled).
• Trump’s aggressive tariff policy has been one of the major factors negatively impacting Hyundai Motor’s share price in the past several months. 
• Hyundai Motor’s valuation has become more attractive.  There are also other investments such as its stakes in Boston Dynamics and Hyundai Motor India that could be valued higher. 

• China Dongxiang (3818 HK) turned around in 1H FY25 as it reported a net profit of Rmb137m, vs. losses of Rmb410m a year ago. Interim DPS increased 92.7% YoY.
• Investment gain is the key driver, reaching Rmb171m in the period, compared with losses of Rmb497m previously. Most investment categories contributed positively. 
• CDNX trades on a 76.9% discount to its SOTP value and a P/B of just 0.22x. Net cash amounted to Rmb3.2bn, or 58.3% more than its market capitalisation. 

• Today, Sanrio (8136 JP) announced a large secondary offering where banks would sell down shares and the Tsuji family would sell a few shares at the margin. 
• The stock has been on a rocket for two years. It’s expensive. Growth slows next year. Will this cause momentum to turn? Maybe. The offering is 38% of Max RWF.
• I think one could give this a pass, and even sell it if it opens down small. 

• Overnight, Sanrio (8136 JP) announced a placement of 25.87m shares to unwind crossholdings and improve corporate value. There is an overallotment option for another 3.88m shares.
• There will be limited passive buying in the short-term and the shares offered is a large percentage of real float of the stock.
• However, Sanrio (8136 JP) is the highest ranked non-constituent stock in a global index universe and a drop in the stock price could be used to accumulate positions.

• Sanrio (8136 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 25.9  million shares (29.8 million including overallotment), worth around US$840 million (US$970 million including overallotment). 
• Sanrio’s goal with the secondary offering is (i) to reduce cross-shareholdings and (ii) to expand and diversify the shareholder base, which should further enhance liquidity.
• Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 10 and 13 December (likely 10 December).

• A group of domestic financial institutions and the firm’s executives are looking to raise US$840m from trimming their stakes in Sanrio (8136 JP).
• While the deal shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the ongoing cross-shareholding unwind narrative in Japan, the timing of such a selldown isn’t always certain.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP) is a Japanese personal care business seeking to raise up to US$500 million. It will be listed on 17 December.
• We previously discussed the IPO in FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: The Bull Case and FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: The Bear Case.
• Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO reference price of JPY2,150 per share is unattractive. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.

• PG Electroplast (PGEL IN) is India’s 2nd largest ODM player for washing machines. It also serve as ODM and OEM for leading brands in Room ACs, electronics, air coolers etc.
• Company is guiding for 76% of topline growth as well as 250Cr of PAT for FY25, out of which 103Cr is already delivered. Also company revised guidance upwards in Q2. 
• With 1500Cr of QIP in plan, company is looking for inorganic growth opportunities to make stronger growth going forward. 

• With 3 trading days left in the review period, we forecast 4 changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the December rebalance.
• Passive trackers will need to buy between 1.2-3.6 days of ADV on the inclusions and sell between 0.3-3.1 days of ADV on the deletions.
• The forecast adds have continued to outperform the forecast deletes and there could be more movement in stocks with relatively high ADV to trade.

• Lotte Chilsung Beverage’s land in Seochogu, Seoul is estimated to be worth more than 3x its market cap. 
• In the past several weeks, there have been increasing concerns about the overall debt pressures at the Lotte Group.
• Lotte Group may be considering on selling some of its assets including Lotte Rental, Lotte Capital, and Lotte Chilsung Beverage’s Seochogu land. 

• Although the reported FY24 net profit plunged 69.7% due to intangible impairments, China Education Group (839 HK)‘s adjusted net profit grew by 3.3% and adjusted EBITDA by 12.3%.
• Based on adjusted net profit, its payout ratio is flat at 40%, implying an 8% dividend yield. This suggests underlying operations are decent and demonstrate confidence in the outlook.
• Both tuition and enrollment are expected to sustain growth in FY25, meaning that a consensus forecast of 9% net profit is achievable. Its 4.5x PER does not appear stretched.

• Taste Gourmet (8371 HK) reported H1 FY25 results of Revenues/Pat 19% YoY/-6%YoY. Profits disappointed slightly as the company was unable to achieve the desired restaurant table turns. 
• Cash continues to pile on the balance sheet, with 185 mn HKD of net cash representing 35% of market capitalization. The company paid a 6-cent semi-annual dividend.
• The stock trades at a 5.2x PE for FY25, has a 10% dividend yield, and plans to grow at least 15% CAGR.  

• Implied vols were lower across all sectors on the week with option volumes peaking on Friday.
• Post-Earnings vol crush helped push vols lower for key names.
• Tencent stands out with low implied vols over the past year, high liquidity and is trading almost 17% below its 52 week high.

• The December 2024 index review results for the BSE Sensex and BSE 100 Indices were announced after the close on Friday 22nd November 2024.
• On the same day, the Bombay Stock Exchange announced several new names will be added to the Futures and Options (F&O) segment resulting in multiple surprises among the index changes.
• There will be one change for BSE Sensex and six changes for BSE 100 during the December 2024 index rebal event.

• Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK) (1913 HK —US$18 billion) is a strange beast.

• It’s an Italian fashion group listed in Hong Kong, of all places. Many European and American investors ignore the name, which has caused Prada to trade at a considerable discount to its peers.

• The first Prada shop was opened in 1913 by Mario Prada, a former leather goods salesman who imported English handbags and travel accessories and sold them to the Italian elite.

• In the past week, Binggrae (005180 KS) announced that it plans to split into a holding company and an operating company in May 2025.
• As part of this company reorganization, Binggrae announced that it plans to cancel all of its treasury shares (1 million common shares, representing 10.2% of total common shares outstanding).
• We are positive on Binggrae due to cheap valuations (1.6x EV/EBITDA in 2025), steady growth in sales and profits, and 10% share cancellation. 

• Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia booked a solid set of 3Q2024 results with an upgrade to SSSG projects for FY2024 with the numbers and guidance for 20 new stores this year. 
• The company continued to expand stores more aggressively outside Java in 3Q2024 and into October and intends to increase store openings further in 2025 along with its rebranding exercise. 
• ACES will see inventories rise in 4Q2024 as it stocks up early for rebranding and upcoming festive periods. Valuations remain attractive with improving growth and productivity driven by regional expansion.

• Post-Covid, Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) began to deliver real profit growth but 1H2024 showed it cannot rest on its laurels. 
• While it’ll be happy not to be worrying about a takeover bid like its rival, Seven & I, it still doesn’t have a profit machine similar to Seven Eleven Japan.
• Welcia helps and so does expanding e-commerce but there is still plenty of room for cutting overhead.

• Lagardere has two core businesses: publishing and travel retail.
• Publishing business has long-term cash flow potential and growth opportunities.
• Travel retail has captive audience but faces competition from airports for margins.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Benson Hill’s share price decline amid no management updates raises concerns of potential buyout failure and urgent funding needs.
• Indiana Resources announced a special dividend after settling with Tanzania, with further shareholder returns expected by 2025.
• Grifols rejected Brookfield Asset Management’s buyout offer, maintaining a 22% discount between Class A and Class B shares.

• The limit is to serve on the boards of two companies concurrently in order to preview the agenda for the monthly board meetings in advance.
• There may be challenges to the effectiveness of the nominating committee of a company that nominates a candidate to serve on the board of directors of three or more companies.
• With the growing demand for female outside board members, it’s hoped that active investment managers will pay attention to the issue of concurrent board membership and make a clear statement.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, $29 price target and projections for Guess?
• after visiting stores in the New York City metropolitan and Long Island areas.
• The company has continued to focus on Fall/Winter fashion favorites such as sweaters, outerwear and activewear in multiple looks, fabrics and cuts.

• We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU). 
• Lowest spreads: Renewable Japan (9522 JP), Macromill, Inc (3978 JP), Nec Networks & System Integr (1973 JP), Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Xingda International (1899 HK), Elematec Corp (2715 JP). 

• In a surprise, Midea Group (300 HK) will replace Weibo (9898 HK) in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) after the close of trading on 6 December.
• Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$11.72bn (US$1.51bn). Passives need to buy 9x ADV in Midea Group (300 HK).
• The Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) / Midea Group (300 HK) premium could drop due to the index inclusion providing an entry point into an AH expansion trade.

• A group of investors are looking to raise US$264m from trimming a portion of their stakes in Meiji Holdings (2269 JP).
• While the deal shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the ongoing cross-shareholding unwind narrative in Japan, the timing of such a selldown isn’t always certain.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity dropped sharply but net SOUTHBOUND buying remains very strong and very broad-based. 
• The trend continues to be net buying of tech though Friday saw a lot of profits taken in Tech names by SOUTHBOUND holders.
• I expect HK-listed tech to continue getting bought. Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, etc are safe havens against Trump tariffs as they don’t compete in the US. Still. 

• FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP) is a Japanese personal care business seeking to raise up to US$500 million. It will be listed on 17 December.
• In FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
• The bear case rests on the weak 3Q24 revenue performance, mid-tier revenue growth, leveraged balance sheet, share overhang and pre-IPO dividend.

• The stock has risen 84% in one year, but we still believe there is an upside of 49%.
• We believe the operating margin will continue to improve significantly in 3Q24.
• We also believe the growth rates of all main businesses should be healthy in 3Q24.

• Nameson Holdings (1982 HK) results for H1 FY25 revenue/net profit showed a slight growth of 2.2%/3.1% YoY, with margin expansion being offset by lower other income. 
• The company declared a 9.8 cent interim dividend (current share price = 82 cents), maintaining a 75% payout ratio, which gives us confidence that a 16-17% yield can be maintained. 
• At 4.9x FY25 PE (see: Nameson Holdings (1982 HK): 17% Dividend Yield Can Be Sustained and Improved Long-Term ), this is a very steady yield play. 

• CaiNiao’s Q2FY Y/Y revenue growth moderated to just +8%, and EBITA declined by -94% Y/Y
• We believe X-border volume remains strong, but X-border price has plummeted
• Considering CaiNiao’s & Alibaba’s Q2FY results, unclear who makes money in X-border

• PDD reported C3Q24 top line, non-GAAP EBIT and non-GAAP net income (2.6%), (12.4%) and (6.3%) vs. cons., and (3.4%)
• PDD is easing its appeasement of China-platform merchants, positive for profitability,but its transition to the semi-consignment model will likely continue as it tries to improve merchandise selection and logistics quality
• We reiterate BUY as PDD is undervalued at 8.1x CY2025 P/E, but we cut its TP to US$ 146 to reflect slower growth amid increasing overseas investment.

• Meiji Holdings (2269 JP) on Friday announced 9 different banks would sell 4.7% of float in an equity offering to price in the first few days of December 2024.
• The shares closed Friday within 1.5% of a 52wk low. The shares are less than 9% off a 9-year low. The offering is about US$300mm and 15 days of ADV.
• Given the stock is under-levered, and structurally a low volatility name, a large move should encourage buying.

• At equal price to ACT, Ito-san wins because of certainty/immediacy, but provided his price is above the bottom of the range and adequately compensates 7&i for “additional actionable avenues.”
• The Amcor Limited (AMC AU)/Berry Global Group (BERY US) merger looks clean. However, Berry’s % of earnings (revs, EBITDA, and profit), are higher than the % under the share split
• This Temasek-led development will have a marginal impact on Tuya Inc (TUYA US). Creating supply and demand is hard. And Temasek-held/backed vehicles on the SGX are already abundant.

• Midea Group (300 HK) and Black Sesame International Holding (2533 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) after the close on 6 December.
• Midea Group (300 HK) is already in Southbound Stock Connect while Black Sesame International Holding (2533 HK) will be added from the open on 9 December.
• There is a huge lock-up expiry for Black Sesame International Holding (2533 HK) in February while the lock-up for Midea Group (300 HK) cornerstone investors ends in March.

• Zomato (ZOMATO IN) will replace JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN) in the S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) at the close on 20 December.
• This is the first of many potential inclusions for Zomato in local indices over the next few months and is due to inclusion of the stock in the F&O segment.
• Futures and options in Zomato (ZOMATO IN) start trading from the open on 29 November. Expect increased volatility in the short-term and an increase in traded volumes.

• Even if the initial AUM is small, the impact of launch of a publicly offered mutual fund for retail investors by a foreign activist investor is expected to be significant.
• If Dalton gains the support of individual investors through publicly offered investment trust, it would give more legitimacy to the management improvement plans that Dalton is pressing Japanese company for.
• Increased attention to the activist investors is expected to lead to a certain number of individual shareholders voting in favor of shareholder proposals, as well as  overseas investor engagement.

Games Workshop Group’s (GAW’s) H125 trading update suggests the company enjoyed a strong Q225 in both its core business (due to the launch of the fourth edition of Age of Sigmar midway through Q125) and licensing (due to the success of the Space Marine 2 video game). These are impressive in the context of the tough comparative from the prior year’s launch of the new edition of Warhammer 40K (40K) and the currency headwinds in the early part of H125. We upgrade our profit estimates for FY25 (by 7%) and FY26 (by 3%) to reflect the outperformance versus our prior expectations.

• The December 2024 index review results for the KOSPI Indices were announced after the close on Thursday 21st November 2024.
• There will be four ADDs and five DELs for KOSPI 200 during the December 2024 index rebal event. 
• We predicted 8 out of 9 changes correctly. We missed one of the DELs and we expected a couple extra changes which did not materialize.

• FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP) is scheduled to be listed on 17 December 2024, at the prime market of TSE at an expected valuation of ~$1.5bn.
• Addition to the small-cap segment of both global indices is forecasted to take place at the May and June 2025 quarterly reviews.
• Full exercise of the greenshoe can increase free float from 35% to 45% hence the security’s passive fund demand upon inclusion.

• Nexstar Media Group reported its third-quarter 2024 financial results, delivering record high revenues and showcasing strong operational performance in a challenging media landscape.
• The company achieved its highest third-quarter total net revenue, driven by record-setting distribution and political advertising revenues.
• The financial results reflect a solid balance between increasing revenues and maintaining cost efficiency, showcasing Nexstar’s ability to leverage its extensive media assets effectively.

• AutoZone, Inc. delivered a robust performance in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 2024, led by significant sales increases and growth strategies in both its domestic and international operations.
• The company’s total sales surged by 9% in the fourth quarter, while earnings per share (EPS) increased by 11%.
• Underpinning these results was a consistent focus on customer service excellence and strategic expansion, particularly in commercial sales and international operations.

• McDonald’s Corporation’s third quarter of 2024 saw mixed results amid a challenging quarter for the Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) sector.
• During the earnings call, CEO Chris Kempczinski addressed a recent E.
• coli crisis linked to slivered onions, emphasizing the company’s rapid response and commitment to customer safety.

• Altria Group’s third-quarter 2024 earnings call revealed a company in transition, managing both resilience in traditional segments and growth in new areas, weighted against challenges such as regulatory pressures and changing market dynamics.
• The company affirmed financial strength through robust earnings, ongoing share repurchases, and commitment to a progressive dividend, although its future hinges on regulatory landscapes and consumer shifts towards reduced-risk products.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• The Under Armour earnings for the second quarter of fiscal 2025 presents a picture of both challenges and early successes in the company’s efforts to reposition itself in the highly competitive athletic apparel market.
• On the positive side, Under Armour has managed to report profitability that exceeded expectations, with an adjusted operating income beat of approximately $50 million.
• This is attributed to effective cost-control measures, a reduction in promotion and discounting activities, and ongoing product costing initiatives.

• Collektr, a livestream collectibles platform based in the Asia-Pacific region, has raised US$1.3 million in a pre-Series A funding round led by AC Ventures Malaysia.
• The round also saw participation from The Hive Southeast Asia, Creador Foundation, and 18 unnamed angel investors.
• This follows a seed round led by First Move, bringing the total investment to date to US$1.3 million.

• Deckers Brands experienced a robust fiscal second quarter of 2025 under the leadership of newly appointed CEO, Stefano Caroti.
• The company continues to uphold its long-standing strategy while integrating four core principles to drive future growth: consumer-first mindset, brandless philosophy, innovation forward, and a globally driven approach.
• These principles have significantly contributed to Deckers Brands’ performance, positioning it for sustained success in the long term.

• Hilton Grand Vacations reported its third-quarter 2024 results, providing insights into its financial performance, strategic progress, and the impact of recent macroeconomic and environmental challenges.
• The company’s performance this quarter was shaped by several key factors, including the integration of its Bluegreen acquisition, strategic reorganization, and external disruptions such as hurricane impacts.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP) is a Japanese personal care business seeking to raise up to US$500 million. It will be listed on 17 December.   
• FineToday has four product categories: Hair care, Skin care, Body care, and others. Hair care is the largest category, accounting for 49.0% of 9M24 revenue. 
• The bull case rests on return to revenue growth, three-pronged growth strategy, top-quartile profitability and top-tier FCF generation. 

• CVC Capital is aiming to raise over US$500m, via selling some of its stake in FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP) in Japan.
• FineToday (FT) is a beauty and personal care company in Asia offering a range of products, including hair care, skin care and body care products.
• In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

• The local market’s buzzing that LG Chem could face a 200-300 billion KRW tax hit from Pillar Two next year, with LGES ramping up U.S. production.
• LG Chem may be reconsidering its plan to sell 2% of its LGES stake, dropping ownership below 80%, shifting the tax burden to LGES instead of itself.
• Flagging this now—LG Chem’s tax burden looms. Consider shorting LGES or a long-short with LG Chem, plus prep for the 2T KRW block deal with the pre-disclosure process.

• DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM) presented PSE Star investor day yesterday and briefly analyzed two game-changing catalysts from the call: a) CasinoPlus acquisition and b) Brazil license. 
• The expected TAM associated with e-games/Bingo in Brazil is 250 bn pesos (4 bn USD), compared to the Philippines, which is currently cycling at 160 bn pesos (Q3 PAGCOR data). 
• The stock trades at 7.8x FYPE with 15% of the market cap in cash and a 3.8% dividend yield (30% payout ratio) with a seasonal uptick in Q4 FY24. 

• In 3Q24, PDD released strong revenue growth, but a flat margin.
• We believe, in 2025, PDD will continue to focus on growth rather than profit.
• We conclude an upside of 43% and a price target of US$167 for 2025. Buy.

• TCOM reported C3Q24 revenue 1.4%/1.6% higher than our est./cons., non-GAAP operating income is 12.5%/5.4% higher than our est./cons., mainly due to strong domestic sales and efficient cost control.
• We expect revenue growth to accelerate in 4Q24 and 2025,backed by domestic travel recovery and steady overseas expansion.AI powered cost saving bringing extra leverage in margin is an additional positive.
• We keep the stock as BUY rating and raise TP to US$74/ADS.

• In late 2022, the company began its evolution from a consumer-focused, U.S. restaurant business into a global, food-focused organization with two distinct business units.
• The company’s largest operating unit is Sadot Agri-Foods, which is a vertically integrated international food supply chain company engaged in trading and shipping sustainable food and commodities such as soybeans, wheat and corn.
• Sadot’s legacy restaurant business is currently in the process of being divested.

• We compared similar growth stage of Alibaba to Pinduoduo, when GMV of both platforms increase from RMB1 trillion to RMB4 trillion, to facilitate better understanding of efficiency edge of Pinduoduo.
• Contrary to consensus, Pinduoduo didn’t do better than Alibaba on OPEX (advertising expenditure in particular), but it did extract much greater value from the ecosystem via significantly higher take-rate.
• The findings highlight how Pinduoduo aggregate user traffic at surprisingly high cost to beef up merchant competition in terms of cost optimization and user acquisition, with Pinduoduo  reaping greatest value.

• Contribution from Amer Sports (AS US) will rise to 5.1%, 7.2%, and 8.9% of Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)‘s earnings in FY24-26, making it increasingly important.
• Amer turned around sharply YoY in 3Q24 with a net profit of US$55.8m. Its gross margin sustained an uptrend, with excellent potential for business growth in Greater China.
• Positive guidance on FY25 outlook with a low-double-digit-to-mid-teens level revenue growth, further expansion in operating margin, and continuous cuts in net finance costs.

• All India Consumer Products Distributors Federation (AICPDF) has again raised concerns about Mamaearth, claiming that distributors and retailers are stuck with around INR 300 crore worth of unsold products.
• The quantum inventory concern that distributors are raising is almost 5x of what Honasa has taken the hit.
• This could bring some serious repercussions on the company’s working capital and growth plans

• Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) did not dispute the NHK article’s claims that the founding family aims to raise buyout funds by the end of the fiscal year.
• Since 13 November, there have been conflicting press reports on the MBO offer price. The NHK article’s implied offer price of JPY3,082 seems the most credible. 
• The MBO’s aggressive completion timeline pressures Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) to respond by either overbidding, working with the founding family at the back-end or walking away.

• I wrote last when Exedy was at ¥3,900 and had just announced, good earnings, a sharp div hike, and a huge buyback. The stock reacted well, but not THAT well.
• Murakami-San had indeed lifted his stake, and the stock is now climbing again. Presumably, the company is in the market buying. At this price, it depends on what Murakami-san does.
• Fat div. Lots of volume to buy in the next several months, but the big story is future measures.

• Seven Eleven’s future usually gets outlined as: Japan ex-growth and only growth is overseas. This is wrong. While the CVS sector is saturated, Seven Eleven itself has not reached saturation.
• There are major areas of growth, both territorially and new offshoot businesses.  Seven is already 32% more efficient than Lawson but more to come.
• Here we take a deep dive into the state of CVS retailing in Japan and how Seven Eleven does, and will, fit into this – and how it will grow.

• Kadokawa Dwango (9468 JP) shares rose 16% after Reuters reported that Sony Corp (6758 JP) is in talks to acquire it. Kadokawa confirmed an initial letter of intent. 
• The privatisation interest is unsurprising as Kadokawa’s publishing arm, acclaimed intellectual properties, and positioning in the anime industry would be attractive to Sony.
• The upside is limited as the last close reflects a significant takeover premium. There is a risk if a binding proposal emerges, it could be takeunder like Bain/T-Gaia.

• BABA reported CY3Q24 top line, adjusted EBITA and non-GAAP net profit (1.0%), (1.6%) and in-line vs. consensus. 
• CMR improved amid monetization changes that narrowed the growth gap with GMV, but also eliminated some low-single profit sellers from its GMV. 
• Cloud and overseas e-commerce revenue also saw good growth and improved profitability. All of BABA’s key businesses are sputtering to life while macro tailwinds are also favorable. 

• CVC Capital is aiming to raise over US$500m, via selling some of its stake in FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP) in Japan.
• FineToday (FT) is a beauty and personal care company in Asia offering a range of products, including hair care, skin care and body care products.
• In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

• There could be 17 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December. Some changes from earlier following 45 new F&O stocks.
• If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 61.5% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 63.4bn (US$752m).
• The potential inclusions to the index have outperformed the potential deletions since the start of June. This trend could continue for a couple of weeks till the changes are announced.

• The larger-than-expected Value-Up fund will drive passive flows surpassing the KRX 300 in both size and speed.
• Value-Up ETFs’ AUM is ₩636.5B, with retail dominating. Major institutions, like pensions, are on standby, but passive flows could hit ₩1.5T post-Dec 20 rebalancing.
• Single-Stock setups may not fit, but for alpha-seeking Value-Up strategies, focus on names with higher passive impact from the boosted AUM.

• During Tesla’s third quarter of 2024 financial report, several key points emerged that provide an overview of the company’s performance and strategic direction.
• One of the prominent highlights was Tesla’s achievement of record deliveries in a market experiencing overall industry declines.
• This emphasizes Tesla’s ability to navigate a challenging automotive landscape, an important consideration for investors assessing the company’s resilience and market positioning.

• Honda Motor Co., Ltd.’s financial results for the first quarter of the fiscal year 2025 offer a complex picture of both achievements and challenges.
• The company reported its highest-ever quarterly operating profit of JPY 484.7 billion, marking a significant year-on-year increase by JPY 90.2 billion.
• This improvement was largely driven by increased unit sales in the motorcycle business in India and Brazil, as well as robust sales of hybrid automobile models in Japan and the United States.