CanSino is a China-based biotechnology company with a focus on vaccine development. In our previous insight (link to Part 1 and Part 2), we have discussed CanSino’s drug pipeline, the competitive landscape, and the valuation.
As the company is starting pre-marketing, we will provide an updated valuation based on new information obtained from the approved application document. Our base case valuation for CanSino is USD 856 million on a pre-money basis. Majority of the rNPV based SOTP valuation still comes from its meningococcal conjugate vaccine (MCV2 and MCV4). Over the past few months, the company has completed Phase III for MCV4 and submitted NDA (new drug application) for MCV2 candidates.
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Korea’s news outlet Maeil Economic Daily reported yesterday that the main bidding of Nexon sale was pushed back to next month. It was originally planned for this month. Maeil said lower-than-expected interest among potential bidders was the main reason. More specifically, Tencent isn’t showing any serious commitment or intention.
Tencent is the key player in this event. But Tencent seems to be hiding its cards. Following are reasonable conclusions at this point wrt what must be going on in this deal:
Tencent has the upper hand in all situations.
Tencent must be the one who is taking more time and pushing back the schedule.
But there is still a higher chance that Tencent will stay in this race to the end.
But it is also very possible that final offer price will be lower than initially and currently expected as Tencent will likely get better deal conditions.
Shenwan Hongyuan Group (H) (1707387D HK) seeks to raise IPO proceeds of $1.16-1.25 billion, which is down from its early indication of a $1.5 billion raise. The IPO was launched with 13 cornerstone investors representing 69% of the deal, at the mid-point of the IPO price range.
In our IPO initiation note, we pointed out that Shenwan Hongyuan’s fundamentals are reflective of a mid-tier firm struggling to stand out. Based on our relative valuation analysis, we would participate in the IPO at most at the low-end of the proposed IPO range.
Agricultural Bank Of China (1288 HK) reported stolid numbers for 2018. A PH Score of 7.6 encapsulates positive change in variables such as Capitalisation, Asset Quality, Margin, Efficiency, and Provisioning though Profitability and Liquidity gauges slipped somewhat. The attractive valuation variable contributes to the score.
Underlying top-line growth of 8%, supported by low double-digit credit growth from moderate deposit expansion, was matched by OPEX increment.
The increase in Interest Income on earning Assets was relatively synchronised to the rise in Interest Expenses on interest-bearing Liabilities.
We mention this as too often in China of late we have seen OPEX growth far outstripping underlying Income gains and Funding cost expansion rise well in excess of Interest Income growth.
Asset Quality was quite stable. Despite lingering SMLs and a double-digit rise in substandard Loans, NPLs actually decreased YoY. The bank though boosted Loan Loss Provisions by 40% YoY and Loan Loss reserve ratios were tightened. A monumental increase in Loan recoveries generated net negative charge-offs. This shows that the bank is pulling no punches with debtors.
Capitalisation ratios were fortified.
A concern would be the increased exposure to CRE which accounts for 31% of the Loan portfolio. This is the greatest risk in the grand scheme of things and has generated much comment given real estate values and the pace of appreciation. (Is a 5-6x increase since the creation of a private market so elevated? Prices are still well below levels of India).
Shares trade at an Earnings and Dividend Yield of 19% and 5.5%, at a P/Book of 0.7x, at a Franchise Valuation of 8%, and with a Total Return Ratio of 1.5x. Thus the bank can be deemed an Income opportunity.
So-Young (SY US) is looking to raise US$150m in its upcoming IPO. The company filed its prospectus with the SEC on Monday.
The company operates online platforms (mobile, website, and WeChat mini program) for discovering, evaluating, and reserving medical aesthetic services in China. It helps medical aesthetic service providers acquire customers through user generated content and other creative content format.
In this insight, we will look at the company’s business model, analyze its financial and operating performance, review the competitive landscape and point out some questions for management.
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CanSino is a China-based biotechnology company with a focus on vaccine development. In our previous insight (link to Part 1 and Part 2), we have discussed CanSino’s drug pipeline, the competitive landscape, and the valuation.
As the company is starting pre-marketing, we will provide an updated valuation based on new information obtained from the approved application document. Our base case valuation for CanSino is USD 856 million on a pre-money basis. Majority of the rNPV based SOTP valuation still comes from its meningococcal conjugate vaccine (MCV2 and MCV4). Over the past few months, the company has completed Phase III for MCV4 and submitted NDA (new drug application) for MCV2 candidates.
The stock price has risen 32% after the short seller J Capital slammed it.
MOMO’s paying user base of live video increased 22% yoy in 3Q18 and 17% yoy in 4Q2018 even though the live show market shrank in 2018.
We believe MOMO will benefit from small competitors’ bankruptcy.
The growth rate of the main business revenues stopped declining.
Our P/E band suggests upside of 80% for MOMO’s stock price.
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CanSino is a China-based biotechnology company with a focus on vaccine development. In our previous insight (link to Part 1 and Part 2), we have discussed CanSino’s drug pipeline, the competitive landscape, and the valuation.
As the company is starting pre-marketing, we will provide an updated valuation based on new information obtained from the approved application document. Our base case valuation for CanSino is USD 856 million on a pre-money basis. Majority of the rNPV based SOTP valuation still comes from its meningococcal conjugate vaccine (MCV2 and MCV4). Over the past few months, the company has completed Phase III for MCV4 and submitted NDA (new drug application) for MCV2 candidates.
Conference call with Meituan Dianping (3690 HK) reveals that ballooning losses from new initiatives (incl. one-off expenses) largely contributed to record quarterly EBIT losses in 4Q18.
Importantly, this masks Meituan Core’s (combined food delivery and in-store, hotel & travel divisions) continued progress toward profitability.
Management is bullish on every division’s outlook in 2019, particularly guiding for 1) balanced growth and profitability strategy for food delivery and 2) disciplined investments in new initiatives.
Meituan attractively trades at 2.9x 2019E P/S, only around half of peers’ valuation (5.5x).
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Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.
CanSino is a China-based biotechnology company with a focus on vaccine development. In our previous insight (link to Part 1 and Part 2), we have discussed CanSino’s drug pipeline, the competitive landscape, and the valuation.
As the company is starting pre-marketing, we will provide an updated valuation based on new information obtained from the approved application document. Our base case valuation for CanSino is USD 856 million on a pre-money basis. Majority of the rNPV based SOTP valuation still comes from its meningococcal conjugate vaccine (MCV2 and MCV4). Over the past few months, the company has completed Phase III for MCV4 and submitted NDA (new drug application) for MCV2 candidates.
Conference call with Meituan Dianping (3690 HK) reveals that ballooning losses from new initiatives (incl. one-off expenses) largely contributed to record quarterly EBIT losses in 4Q18.
Importantly, this masks Meituan Core’s (combined food delivery and in-store, hotel & travel divisions) continued progress toward profitability.
Management is bullish on every division’s outlook in 2019, particularly guiding for 1) balanced growth and profitability strategy for food delivery and 2) disciplined investments in new initiatives.
Meituan attractively trades at 2.9x 2019E P/S, only around half of peers’ valuation (5.5x).
Ruhnn Holding Ltd (RUHN US) is an e-commerce platform which drives sales through KOLs (key opinion leaders). Ruhnn is the largest internet KOL facilitator in China as measured by revenue, the number of online stores and GMV in 2018 according to Frost & Sullivan. Ruhnn is backed by Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US), an 8.6% shareholder, and is seeking to raise $200 million through a Nasdaq IPO.
However, Ruhnn’s rhetoric does not match its financial performance. On balance, we are inclined to give this IPO a pass.
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An underlying issue regarding February data is just how pressurized it is. Between cross armed speculations about trade talk negotiations and the biggest Chinese holiday, it should come as no surprises that February data is underwhelming. Chinese markets are still grappling with a way forward in the trade talk quagmire, but February numbers are in many ways seasonal, due to the holiday snapshot it encompasses.
By Lawrence Brainard, Chief Emerging Market Economist at TS Lombard
In a Chinese version of QE the PBoC is flooding markets with liquidity
Commercial banks will be slow to use it to boost lending to SMEs
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Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.
Shenwan Hongyuan Group (H) (1707387D HK) seeks to raise IPO proceeds of $1.16-1.25 billion, which is down from its early indication of a $1.5 billion raise. The IPO was launched with 13 cornerstone investors representing 69% of the deal, at the mid-point of the IPO price range.
In our IPO initiation note, we pointed out that Shenwan Hongyuan’s fundamentals are reflective of a mid-tier firm struggling to stand out. Based on our relative valuation analysis, we would participate in the IPO at most at the low-end of the proposed IPO range.
Agricultural Bank Of China (1288 HK) reported stolid numbers for 2018. A PH Score of 7.6 encapsulates positive change in variables such as Capitalisation, Asset Quality, Margin, Efficiency, and Provisioning though Profitability and Liquidity gauges slipped somewhat. The attractive valuation variable contributes to the score.
Underlying top-line growth of 8%, supported by low double-digit credit growth from moderate deposit expansion, was matched by OPEX increment.
The increase in Interest Income on earning Assets was relatively synchronised to the rise in Interest Expenses on interest-bearing Liabilities.
We mention this as too often in China of late we have seen OPEX growth far outstripping underlying Income gains and Funding cost expansion rise well in excess of Interest Income growth.
Asset Quality was quite stable. Despite lingering SMLs and a double-digit rise in substandard Loans, NPLs actually decreased YoY. The bank though boosted Loan Loss Provisions by 40% YoY and Loan Loss reserve ratios were tightened. A monumental increase in Loan recoveries generated net negative charge-offs. This shows that the bank is pulling no punches with debtors.
Capitalisation ratios were fortified.
A concern would be the increased exposure to CRE which accounts for 31% of the Loan portfolio. This is the greatest risk in the grand scheme of things and has generated much comment given real estate values and the pace of appreciation. (Is a 5-6x increase since the creation of a private market so elevated? Prices are still well below levels of India).
Shares trade at an Earnings and Dividend Yield of 19% and 5.5%, at a P/Book of 0.7x, at a Franchise Valuation of 8%, and with a Total Return Ratio of 1.5x. Thus the bank can be deemed an Income opportunity.
So-Young (SY US) is looking to raise US$150m in its upcoming IPO. The company filed its prospectus with the SEC on Monday.
The company operates online platforms (mobile, website, and WeChat mini program) for discovering, evaluating, and reserving medical aesthetic services in China. It helps medical aesthetic service providers acquire customers through user generated content and other creative content format.
In this insight, we will look at the company’s business model, analyze its financial and operating performance, review the competitive landscape and point out some questions for management.
Anti-PD-1 monoclonal antibody (mAb) is a hotly contested immunotherapy area in China, with seven companies working on clinical trials covering various lines of treatment for more than a dozen indications. Out of these indications, we have highlighted in our previous coverage on Chinese biotech companies that the most critical indication is the first line treatment of lung cancer, particularly non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Valuation of PD-1 related drugs anchors many of the Hong Kong-listed biotech companies, such as Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK), Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Co. Ltd. (1877 HK), BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK), CStone Pharma (2616 HK) and China A-share listed Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co., (600276 CH).
In March, Merck’s Keytruda (generic name pembrolizumab) was approved by NMPA for the first line treatment of EGFR and ALK-negative non-squamous NSCLC. This marks Keytruda the first approved PD-1 drugs for the first line treatment of NSCLC in China.
In this insight, we will review the status and targeted indications of clinical trials of PD-1 candidates by domestic players.
Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma
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By Lawrence Brainard, Chief Emerging Market Economist at TS Lombard
In a Chinese version of QE the PBoC is flooding markets with liquidity
Commercial banks will be slow to use it to boost lending to SMEs
Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma
Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.
Agricultural Bank Of China (1288 HK) reported stolid numbers for 2018. A PH Score of 7.6 encapsulates positive change in variables such as Capitalisation, Asset Quality, Margin, Efficiency, and Provisioning though Profitability and Liquidity gauges slipped somewhat. The attractive valuation variable contributes to the score.
Underlying top-line growth of 8%, supported by low double-digit credit growth from moderate deposit expansion, was matched by OPEX increment.
The increase in Interest Income on earning Assets was relatively synchronised to the rise in Interest Expenses on interest-bearing Liabilities.
We mention this as too often in China of late we have seen OPEX growth far outstripping underlying Income gains and Funding cost expansion rise well in excess of Interest Income growth.
Asset Quality was quite stable. Despite lingering SMLs and a double-digit rise in substandard Loans, NPLs actually decreased YoY. The bank though boosted Loan Loss Provisions by 40% YoY and Loan Loss reserve ratios were tightened. A monumental increase in Loan recoveries generated net negative charge-offs. This shows that the bank is pulling no punches with debtors.
Capitalisation ratios were fortified.
A concern would be the increased exposure to CRE which accounts for 31% of the Loan portfolio. This is the greatest risk in the grand scheme of things and has generated much comment given real estate values and the pace of appreciation. (Is a 5-6x increase since the creation of a private market so elevated? Prices are still well below levels of India).
Shares trade at an Earnings and Dividend Yield of 19% and 5.5%, at a P/Book of 0.7x, at a Franchise Valuation of 8%, and with a Total Return Ratio of 1.5x. Thus the bank can be deemed an Income opportunity.
So-Young (SY US) is looking to raise US$150m in its upcoming IPO. The company filed its prospectus with the SEC on Monday.
The company operates online platforms (mobile, website, and WeChat mini program) for discovering, evaluating, and reserving medical aesthetic services in China. It helps medical aesthetic service providers acquire customers through user generated content and other creative content format.
In this insight, we will look at the company’s business model, analyze its financial and operating performance, review the competitive landscape and point out some questions for management.
Anti-PD-1 monoclonal antibody (mAb) is a hotly contested immunotherapy area in China, with seven companies working on clinical trials covering various lines of treatment for more than a dozen indications. Out of these indications, we have highlighted in our previous coverage on Chinese biotech companies that the most critical indication is the first line treatment of lung cancer, particularly non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Valuation of PD-1 related drugs anchors many of the Hong Kong-listed biotech companies, such as Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK), Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Co. Ltd. (1877 HK), BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK), CStone Pharma (2616 HK) and China A-share listed Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co., (600276 CH).
In March, Merck’s Keytruda (generic name pembrolizumab) was approved by NMPA for the first line treatment of EGFR and ALK-negative non-squamous NSCLC. This marks Keytruda the first approved PD-1 drugs for the first line treatment of NSCLC in China.
In this insight, we will review the status and targeted indications of clinical trials of PD-1 candidates by domestic players.
Incremental technical developments continue to be of the bullish variety as more and more countries/regions begin to participate in the rally. These ongoing improvements further cement our positive overall outlook, and we continue to believe that global equities (MSCI ACWI) are poised for additional strength moving forward. In our April International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our overall positive outlook, along with areas within the world’s markets where we see immediate opportunity.
Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma
Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.