China

• We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• This week, the highest spreads are Xiamen International Port H (3378 HK), Sezzle Inc (SZL AU), 21Vianet Group (VNET US), Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU), Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)
• Lowest gross spreads are Yancoal Australia (YAL AU), Hwa Hong Corp (HWAH SP), Virtus Health (VRT AU), Irongate Group (IAP AU), Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU), AKM Industrial (1639 HK). 

• We think the underperformance of China Power International (2380 HK) (CPI) against the market in this year is unjustified given a projected improvement in profitability.
• CPI has secured coal supply with more than 60% of contracts on annual long-term basis within the benchmark price range. Also, power tariff is expected to be on an uptrend.
• The proposed new management incentive scheme will better align management’s and shareholders’ interests. CPI also indicated good room to lower leverage in this year while sustaining growth. 

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Modern Land China

• IRay’s performance has shown a trend of accelerating growth in 2021/2022Q1, mainly driven by the mobile DR sales during COVID-19 as well as the dental (CBCT) and industrial security businesses.
• The sales of mobile DR would slow down after COVID is under control. The decreasing price due to fierce competition in grassroots markets would finally drag down gross profit margin. 
• The concern is that the market space (DR/dental/industrial fields) is not big, with obvious growth ceiling. So, we lowered our revenue/profit margin forecast and we think iRay is overvalued 

• SOE terminal operator Xiamen International Port (3378 HK) has announced a pre-conditional Offer from Xiamen Port Holding, a Fujian SASAC-controlled entity.
• The Offer price is HK$2.25 per H-share, a 55% premium to last close. The Offer price will NOT be increased. The final dividend will be added to the cancellation price. 
• Pre-Conditions include approvals from NDRC, MoC, SAFE, and CSRC. There is no tendering condition. This deal mirrors Guodian Technology (1296 HK), BCL (2868 HK), and Jin Jiang Capital (2006 HK).

• Inside is a recap of movements in the last week relating to the Hong Kong Stock-Shanghai and Shenzhen Northbound Connect facilities, broken down by company and industry. 
• Overall, net inflow was ~US$6.1bn, split between Shanghai (+US$3.5bn) and Shenzhen (+US$2.6bn)  
• The largest inflows were into Shanghai Putailai (603659 CH) and Satelltte Chemical (002648 CH). The largest outflows were in Anhui Conch Cement (600585 CH) and Guangzhou Tinci Materials (002709 CH).

• Inside is a recap of movements in the last week relating to the Shanghai and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect facilities, broken down by company and industry.
• Overall, net inflow was ~US$0.8bn, split (roughly) US$0.2bn for Shanghai and US$0.6bn Shenzhen.
• The largest inflows were into  CNOOC Ltd (883 HK), China Mobile (941 HK), and Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK). The largest outflows were in Tencent (700 HK) and ICBC (1398 HK).

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

1. Evergrande
2. Logan Property Holdings
3. Times China
4. Ronshine China Holdings
5. China Jinmao Holdings

and more…

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

1. Evergrande
2. Logan Property Holdings
3. Times China
4. Ronshine China Holdings
5. China Jinmao Holdings

and more…

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.

• Longleaf Partners Funds is a suite of mutual funds and UCITS funds that Southeastern Asset Management, the investment advisor to the Longleaf Partners Funds, created in 1987 as a way for Southeastern employees to invest alongside their clients.
• Longleaf Partners International Fund declined 12.04% in the first quarter, while the MSCI EAFE Index declined 5.91%.
• New investments have a high hurdle to qualify given our conviction in our current holdings and the steep discount of the portfolio.
• We believe our companies in Asia and Europe are well positioned to navigatethe challenges facing each region today.

• Weibo Corp (WB US) delivered robust 1Q22 results with ad revenue growing 10% year-over-year and outperforming other Chinese social networks, which underscores Weibo’s prominent position for advertisers.
• However, widespread lockdowns in China and economic slowdown could pressure Weibo in 2Q, and we expect a gradual recovery in 3Q-4Q with limited visibility. 
• We like Weibo attractive valuation at 10x forward P/E; it has amassed MAU 582 million till March 2022 and user engagement has been improving.

• Longleaf Partners Funds is a suite of mutual funds and UCITS funds that Southeastern Asset Management, the investment advisor to the Longleaf Partners Funds, created in 1987 as a way for Southeastern employees to invest alongside their clients.
• Longleaf Partners Global Fund declined 5.84% in the first quarter, roughly in line with the MSCI World’s 5.15% decline.
• In a volatile quarter for markets across the globe, we saw one of the largest disconnects between price and value per share performance that we have seen for our portfolio in a long time.
• We remain fully invested with less than 2% cash, and our on-deck list isgrowing longer amid market volatility.
• We believe our companies in Asia and Europe are well positioned to navigatethe challenges facing each region today.

• Xiamen International Port H (3378 HK) announced a pre-conditional privatisation offer from Xiamen Port Holding at HK$2.25 per H share + final dividend of RMB0.021 per share (ex-div: 15 June). 
• The key conditions are approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (<10% of all independent H Shareholders’ rejection). There is no minimum acceptance condition.  
• The offer is attractive in comparison to historical share prices and multiples. We think that the privatisation proposal will likely succeed. At the last close, the gross spread is 55.2%.

For our next Corporate Webinar, we are glad to welcome China Shenshan Orchard (DKNG SP) Executive Director, David Zhao.

In the upcoming webinar, David will share a short company presentation, after which he will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Analyst Angus Mackintosh. A live Q&A session will follow.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Tuesday, 28 June 2022, 17:00 SGT.

China Shenshan Orchard Holdings Co. Ltd. is a horticultural company in the business of planting, cultivating, and selling kiwi fruit in the People’s Republic of China (“PRC”). The Group holds forest use rights for eight strategically located orchards, spanning a total land area of 9,805 mu (approximately 6.5 million sqm), which is believed to be one of the largest domestic kiwi fruit orchards concentrated in Chibi City, Hubei, the PRC.

Corporate Webinars by Smartkarma Corporate Solutions feature discussions with IROs and Executives, discussing their companies, the challenges they face, and the opportunities in their sectors and markets.

• Revenue growth mainly came from initiatives, which is the focus of April layoff.
• We believe revenue will slow down and the operating loss will shrink.
• We set a downside of 11.5% and a price target of HK$160.

• The government has taken several steps to improve supply-side restrictions on first and second homes.
• PBOC has added policy support by cutting longer-dated LPR rates for home loan pricing. Longfor Group and Country Garden are highly rated, large China Real Estate developers.
• They do not seem to respond positively to many tailwinds

• Burning Rock Biotech (BNR US) reported strong Q1 2022 results, with accelerated double-digit revenue growth of 27% y/y, higher than full year 2022 revenue growth guidance of 22%.
• Operating loss widened due to 41% y/y surge in opex, primarily attributed to higher staff cost, which resulted from an increase in headcount.
• Management reiterated 2022 revenue growth guidance of 22% y/y. With Shanghai re-opening, this seems to be achievable.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Evergrande
• Country Garden Holdings Co
• Jingrui Holdings
• Meituan
• China Datang Corp Renewable Power
• Ronshine China Holdings
• Times China

• National flag carrier Air China Ltd. (601111.SH) is planning to take control of Shandong Airlines as part of a bailout of the debt-ridden regional airline, it said this week.
• The state-owned giant is stepping in as its smaller peer suffers along with the rest of the country’s civil aviation industry, with companies racking up huge losses due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
• Air China is already the second-largest shareholder of Shandong Airlines Group Co. Ltd. with a 49.4% stake

• Meituan reported 1Q2022 results yesterday. Revenue grew 25.0% YoY to RMB46.3bn (vs consensus RMB45.3bn) while operating losses for the quarter slightly dropped to 12.1% of revenues from 12.9% in 1Q2021.
• As a result of Omicron spread in March, revenue declined sequentially as all three segments reported QoQ decline in revenue during 1Q2022.
• Meituan hasn’t reported GTV for food delivery as well as no. of domestic hotel room nights for In-Store, Hotel & Travel which seems strange, suggesting 2Q numbers could be worse.

• There are 18 changes to the SSE180 Index and 38 changes to the SSE380 Index that will be implemented at the close of trading on 9 June.
• There will be 9 deletions from the MSCI Standard Index and 22 deletions from the FTSE All-World/All-Cap indices at the close on 9 June.
• Currently, 16 stocks meet the threshold/are close for inclusion in the MSCI China Index while there are 38 stocks that meet the threshold for inclusion in the FTSE All-World/All-Cap indices.

• The sharp plunge in share price of China Conch Environment Protection Holdings (587 HK) has not yet brought its valuations back to more reasonable levels and we see more downside.
• Its 10.1x PER for FY22F is at a significant premium over peer average. Even taking into account the impressive ROE, we still cannot find justifications for its high P/B multiple.  
• Negative catalysts include overly aggressive expansion target, slower profit growth than rise in capacity and surge in gearing and finance costs – they will potentially lead to earnings disappointment.

• The most recent two quarters have maintained positive growth. It is of great significance for Huadong, who once suffered a significant decline and now in a critical period of transformation.
• The large growth potential of medical cosmetology and industrial microbiology would be important driver for future development. It’s also wise to strike a balance between current performance and future strategy.
• Huadong’s revenue growth would be above 10% in next few years. It would have higher valuation than Imeik. Investors are advised to follow Huadong. It could be a “dark horse”.

• The index committee has continued to use a 6 month minimum listing history leading to five changes to the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) in June.
• One way turnover is estimated at 8.56% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 3,496m. Passive trackers will need to trade between 2-6 days ADV on the adds/deletes.
• The inclusions have outperformed the deletions and the CSI500 Index since the end of the review period with all inclusions moving higher over the period.

• There are 5 changes for the SSE50 Index that will be implemented at the close on 9 June. The impact is pretty chunky on a few deletions.
• Apart from the passive assets tracking the index, there are some liquid index futures and the impact on the stocks will be larger than just the headline numbers.
• The adds underperformed the deletes in March and April but have come roaring back in May. Playing the trade via long/short pairs could provide better risk adjusted returns.

• There are 28 changes for the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) at the upcoming rebalance that will be implemented at the close of trading on 9 June.
• We had forecast nearly all the changes, though the index committee seems to have used discretion in deciding not to add three Distillers to the index, leading to other changes.
• There’s a large sector skew with Industrials, Information Technology and Materials stocks taking 17 more spots in the index, while Health Care and Financials lose 9 and 5 spots respectively.

• Harding Loevner has been investing globally in high-quality, growing businesses based on disciplined industry research since 1989.
• Stock markets fell in the quarter, as the world watched in horror Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
• China-based WuXi Biologics illustrates the perfect storm of macro issues pressuring the share prices of our rapidly growing companies.
• As questions mount whether globalization has reached a tipping point, companies are taking full advantage of the many advances occurring across the industrial automation landscape— propelling leadingp roviders of “Industry 4.0” solutions onto favorable growth paths.

• The potential MGO price is HK$1.2430 per H Share vs Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK)’s previously noted HK$1.294 per H Share due to the change in RMB/HK$ rates.
• The completion procedures for the auction will take place within six months. Approvals have low risk as the SAIC Motor (600104 CH)’s controlling shareholder is owned by the Shanghai SASAC.
• At the last close and for a 1 November completion, the gross and annualised spread to the MGO price is 5.3% and 12.7%, respectively.

• It’s now official – SAIC Motor (600104 CH) has made a possible unconditional mandatory cash Offer for Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK).
• To recap: on the 19 May, SAIC acquired China Zhengtong Auto Services Hldg (1728 HK)‘s 71.04% stake in Dongzheng at a judicial auction. This triggers the mandatory Offer.
• The new news from today’s announcement is that the Offer price was reduced to HK$1.243/share – presumably on account of moves in HKD vs. RMB. The Offer price is final.

• Inside is a recap of movements in the last week relating to the Shanghai and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect facilities, broken down by company and industry. 
• Overall, net inflow was ~US$1.1bn, split evenly (roughly) between Shanghai and Shenzhen. 
• The largest inflows were into  China Mobile (941 HK) and CNOOC Ltd (883 HK). The largest outflows were in Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) and BYD (1211 HK).

• Inside is a recap of movements in the last week relating to the Hong Kong Stock-Shanghai and Shenzhen Northbound Connect facilities, broken down by company and industry. 
• Overall, net inflow was ~US$0.7bn, split between Shanghai (+US$1bn) and Shenzhen (-US$0.3bn)  
• The largest inflows were into China Yangtze Power (600900 CH) and Cosco Shipping Holdings (601919 CH). The largest outflows were in Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH)and CATL (A) (300750 CH).

• Beijing Enterprises Urban Resources (3718 HK) composite document is out with the MGO’s first closing date of 17 June. The IFA considers Beijing Enterprises Water Group (371 HK)‘s offer fair. 
• The MGO is conditional on the offeror and concert parties holding more than 50% of the voting rights. With the offeror currently at 44.16%, the MGO should become unconditional. 
• At last close and for a 28 June payment, the gross and annualised spread to the MGO price (including final dividend) of HK$0.81 per share is 2.5% and 31.5%, respectively.

• Beauty Farm Medical and Health Industry (BFM HK), second largest body and skin care service provider in China has filed for IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.  
• Large and growing addressable market, comprehensive service offering, nationwide store network, and sound financial position are the major strengths of the company.
• BFM’s operation faces uncertainties over COVID and related restrictions. This IPO is not expected to see listing gain unless general market condition and China’s economic growth outlook improve.

• Harding Loevner has been investing globally in high-quality, growing businesses based on disciplined industry research since 1989.
• Emerging Markets (EMs) declined sharply, primarily due to the collapse in Russian equities brought about by economic sanctions against Russia because of its invasion of Ukraine, as well as poor performance in China.
• The EM landscape is currently fogged by an exceptional confluence of risks: armed conflict in Ukraine, inflation, rising interest rates, volatile commodity prices, and concerns about food and energy security.
• Although we made only a handful of transactions this quarter, the portfolio’s profile changed significantly because of the write-down of our Russian holdings and the outsized returns of stocks benefiting from commodity price inflation.

• Harding Loevner has been investing globally in high-quality, growing businesses based on disciplined industry research since 1989.
• Emerging Markets (EMs) declined sharply, primarily due to the collapse in Russian equities brought about by economic sanctions against Russia because of its invasion of Ukraine, as well as poor performance in China.
• The EM landscape is currently fogged by an exceptional confluence of risks: armed conflict in Ukraine, inflation, rising interest rates, volatile commodity prices, and concerns about food and energy security.
• Although we made only a handful of transactions this quarter, the portfolio’s profile changed significantly because of the write-down of our Russian holdings and the outsized returns of stocks benefiting from commodity price inflation.

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

1. Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone
2. Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited H
3. Vedanta Resources
4. Indika Energy
5. Pakuwon Jati

and more…

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.