Category

China

Daily Brief China: Meituan, Giant Biogene Holding, Taste Gourmet Group, Anhui Conch Cement, Powerlong Real Estate Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Does Meituan Have the Appetite to Serve HK Food Delivery Market and Take On Foodpanda and Deliveroo?
  • Giant Biogene IPO: The Bull Case
  • Taste Gourmet: Buybacks And Recovery Into Q2 2023
  • Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK): Well Geared Towards the Long-Term Drivers
  • Morning Views Asia: Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings, Sino-Ocean Service

Does Meituan Have the Appetite to Serve HK Food Delivery Market and Take On Foodpanda and Deliveroo?

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Several news media outlets reported that food delivery giant Meituan (3690 HK) is preparing to enter the food delivery market in Hong Kong as domestic market is slowing down.
  • Slowdown in Chinese economy coupled with regulatory hurdles have made it impossible for Meituan and other domestic tech players to expand locally.
  • Online food delivery market in HK is dominated by Foodpanda and Deliveroo, and we think Meituan will have to offer deep discounts to grab market share from these two dominants.

Giant Biogene IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • Giant Biogene Holding (GBH HK), a leading professional skin care product manufacturer, has started pre-marketing a US$500 million HKEx IPO.  
  • According to Frost & Sullivan, Biogene was China’s second-largest professional skin treatment product company by retail sales in 2021.  
  • The key elements of the bull case rest on a large and growing addressable market, regulatory tailwinds, the core brand’s stellar performance and high cash generation. 

Taste Gourmet: Buybacks And Recovery Into Q2 2023

By Sameer Taneja

  • Taste Gourmet Group (8371 HK) is a play on the HK recovery with a promising outlook in the long-term at 5.7x/4.3x FY23/24e PE (10.5%/14.1% dividend yield assuming 60% payout).
  • The company recently initiated a buyback mandate on the 20th of September for (10% of outstanding shares) and has repurchased 2.2% of outstanding shares so far.
  • We believe the company will report strong earnings for its quarterly release on November 11th and payout a good dividend which will be a further catalyst for rerating.

Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK): Well Geared Towards the Long-Term Drivers

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • We see improvements in the underlying drivers of Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK) over the last two months, and we believe value has emerged for long-term investors.
  • There is a slight recovery in cement price in Sep, and the proceeds from local governments’ special purpose bonds issuance will make incremental stimulus to demand. 
  • Net cash now amounts to 37.5% of share price, providing support to its over 9% prospective dividend yield as well as potential value-enhancing M&As. 

Morning Views Asia: Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings, Sino-Ocean Service

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Bilibili, Pylon Technologies Co Ltd, Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H, Meihua Holdings Group Co A, Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, Giant Biogene Holding, Central China Real Estate and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Clarifying the Bilibili (9626 HK) Rule on Southbound Eligibility
  • CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Positioned for Outperformance
  • Hisense (921 HK/000921 CH) Nonsense
  • SSE180 Index Rebalance Preview: Stock Connect & MSCI/FTSE Eligibility
  • Tencent Seeks Majority Stake in Overseas Game Companies as Game Revenue Slows Down Further
  • Wuxi Biologics (2269.HK) – Removed from UVL, but the Crisis Is Not Over
  • Giant Biogene Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Sales Growing Faster but so Have Marketing Spends
  • Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, Sunac China Holdings

Clarifying the Bilibili (9626 HK) Rule on Southbound Eligibility

By Travis Lundy

  • Bilibili Inc (BILI US) listed in the US in April 2018. It eventually listed in Hong Kong under the ticker Bilibili (9626 HK) in March 2021 as a Secondary Listing. 
  • Bilibili (9626 HK)  announced 16 March 2022 it intended to pursue a HK Primary Listing.  Application was announced on 2 May 2022, Circular a month later. Results announced 29 September.
  • As of 3 October, it is a Dual Primary Listing, making it eventually eligible for Southbound Trading. But there as confusion as to when. Hint:  It’s March 2023.

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Positioned for Outperformance

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearing the end of the review period for the December rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 9 December.
  • There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 13.67% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.53bn.
  • The potential adds have outperformed over the last 6 months but have given up some of the gains recently as market turned volatile. Expect outperformance as the review period ends.

Hisense (921 HK/000921 CH) Nonsense

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 21 October 2016, Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK) announced it would invest  RMB1.7bn of “idle” funds into wealth management products, or ~HK$1.43/share.
  • Between 16 September 2022 and 8 October, Hisense announced it has invested HK$1.13bn of idle funds in wealth management products.
  • Hisense reckons the investment is “beneficial for enhancing efficiency of use of idle self-owned funds“. But if truly idle, they should be returned to shareholders.

SSE180 Index Rebalance Preview: Stock Connect & MSCI/FTSE Eligibility

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearing the end of the review period, we expect there will be 18 changes to the SSE180 Index in December. The first-order impact on the stocks is not large.
  • Stocks that are not currently in Buy/Sell Stock Connect will be added to the list. That makes them eligible for inclusion in the MSCI and FTSE indices in February/March.
  • We see 6 of the potential/close adds being added to the MSCI China Index in February and 8 of the potential/close adds being added to the FTSE All-World/All-Cap in March.

Tencent Seeks Majority Stake in Overseas Game Companies as Game Revenue Slows Down Further

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Several news media outlets reported last week that Tencent has changed its M&A strategy to obtain majority stakes in overseas gaming companies as opposed to buying minority stakes previously.
  • Tencent’s online game revenue declined YoY for two-consecutive quarters primarily due to decline in domestic game revenue that was impacted by absence of new game titles and minority protection rules.
  • Our analysis on Tencent’s game downloads and ranks reveal that both domestic and international game revenues would decline further in 3Q2022E.

Wuxi Biologics (2269.HK) – Removed from UVL, but the Crisis Is Not Over

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK) has been removed from the “Unverified List”, but the crisis is not over. CXO’s valuation center could gradually volatile to the downside,during which there would be temporary rebounds.
  • Biotechnology of US and China has entered a higher level of game. As domestic CXO is deeply embedded in global supply chain, we won’t take any chances on WuXi Biologics.
  • We may face a long high-interest-rate environment after the Fed hikes,but the booming of US pharmaceutical IPOs is the underlying logic of CXO. We provided suggestions on CXO trading strategy.

Giant Biogene Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Sales Growing Faster but so Have Marketing Spends

By Sumeet Singh

  • Giant Biogene Holding (GBH HK) aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • GB is a leader in the bioactive ingredient-based professional skin treatment product industry in China.
  • We had looked at the company’s past performance in  our previous notes. In this note, we’ll talk about its PHIP updates.

Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, Sunac China Holdings

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Lifestyle International Holdings, Jiangsu Expressway (H), Antengene, Dingdang Health Technology Group, Country Garden Holdings Co and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades
  • Merger Arb Mondays (10 Oct) – Lifestyle, Yashili, Eagle Cement, O2Micro, DTAC/True, Nearmap, PTB
  • Jiangsu Expressway (177 HK): A Simple yet Attractive Yield Play
  • Antengene (6996 HK): First Drug Launched in Crowded Market of China Fails to Allure Investors
  • Dingdang Health Technology (9886HK)-Business Model Face Test; Hard to Run the Ecosystem Successfully
  • Morning Views Asia: China SCE, China Vanke, Country Garden Holdings Co, Tata Motors ADR

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


Jiangsu Expressway (177 HK): A Simple yet Attractive Yield Play

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • With share price of Jiangsu Expressway (H) (177 HK) now back to the 2013-2014 level, the stock is very attractive on secured yield of 8.6% based on its dividend record. 
  • Fundamentally, we expect sequential recovery in earnings in 2H22. Its diversification into clean energy will provide a quality earnings stream. Longer-term, new projects will add to earnings. 
  • It has a healthy gearing level and the Rmb denominated borrowings means it will benefit from lower interest rate and lack of exposure to Rmb depreciation.  

Antengene (6996 HK): First Drug Launched in Crowded Market of China Fails to Allure Investors

By Tina Banerjee

  • On May 13, Antengene (6996 HK) launched first drug, Xpovio in China as fourth-line treatment of relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma. Xpovio has also been launched in South Korea, Australia, and Singapore.
  • Xpovio reported revenue of RMB54 million in H1 2022. Antengene has guided for 2022 revenue of RMB180–200 million from Xpovio.
  • Late-Line MM therapy market is small and dominated by blockbuster drugs and low-cost generic versions of erstwhile blockbuster drugs, indicating muted growth potential for Xpovio in its current approval status.

Dingdang Health Technology (9886HK)-Business Model Face Test; Hard to Run the Ecosystem Successfully

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Dingdang has formed a system integrating front-end consultation, self-built pharmacies and back-end distribution. The “heavy asset model” leads to large liabilities, negative equity balance, cash flow pressure and poor profitability.
  • Dingdang lacks core competitiveness in introducing customer flow or rapidly expanding user base. Together with fierce competition, the gap between the Company and JD Health/Alibaba Health will become bigger.
  • It’s difficult to achieve high profits based on the business model when break-even is barely achieved. Dingdang has it hard to successfully run through its ecosystem.We’re bearish on the outlook.

Morning Views Asia: China SCE, China Vanke, Country Garden Holdings Co, Tata Motors ADR

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Country Style Cooking Restaurant Chain, Antengene, Zhongsheng Group, Kakao Pay and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Country Style Cooking Restaurant Chain Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Flagship Brand Still Struggling
  • Antengene (6996.HK) 22H1-Defective Business Model and Uncompetitive Pipeline; Bearish on the Outlook
  • Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings: 7th Oct – Luk Fook, Zhongsheng Group, Kowloon Development
  • ECM Weekly (9th Oct 2022) – CALB, Socionext, Betagro, Country Style, I-Tail, Lionheart, Kakao Pay

Country Style Cooking Restaurant Chain Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Flagship Brand Still Struggling

By Ethan Aw

  • Country Style Cooking Restaurant Chain (1985552D HK) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Country Style Cooking Restaurant Chain (CSCRC) is a Chinese quick service restaurant (QSR) chain situated in China. It operates two brands, namely: CSC and Rice Space, which are all self-operated. 
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Antengene (6996.HK) 22H1-Defective Business Model and Uncompetitive Pipeline; Bearish on the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • There’s an “insurmountable obstacle” to license-in business model. Antengene (6996 HK) has to go all the way to the end. Otherwise, Antengene won’t end up well.
  • Considering the pipeline quality/speed of clinical advancement/high cost of license-in/fierce competition/just APAC rights/limited cash balance, the biggest problem Antengene has to face is how to “survive this winter” .
  • Theoretically, Antengene is undervalued, so if willing to, investors could do short-term trade. However, due to the concerns, we are still bearish on Antengene’s outlook overall. 

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings: 7th Oct – Luk Fook, Zhongsheng Group, Kowloon Development

By David Blennerhassett

  • The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
  • Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute. 
  • These insights may also flag those companies where shares have been pledged. Stocks mentioned include Luk Fook Holdings Intl (590 HK), Zhongsheng Group (881 HK), and Kowloon Development (34 HK).

ECM Weekly (9th Oct 2022) – CALB, Socionext, Betagro, Country Style, I-Tail, Lionheart, Kakao Pay

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • On the IPO front, HK IPOs continued to struggle with CALB (3931 HK) joining Leapmotor (9863 HK) and Onewo (2602 HK) with its tepid performance.
  • Given the mid-week HK holiday and the ongoing golden week, there weren’t any large placements this week.

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Daily Brief China: Kweichow Moutai, Wuxi Biologics, Agile Property Holdings, Country Style Cooking Restaurant Chain, Jenscare Scientific, CIFI Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (7 October 2022)
  • Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (7 October 2022)
  • Chinese Property Weekly – 7 October 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Chinese Property Weekly – 7 October 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Country Style Cooking Restaurant Chain Pre-IPO – The Positives – A Second Attempt at Profitability
  • Jenscare (健世科技) IPO Trading: Weak Demand and Share Concentration
  • Weekly Wrap – 07 Oct 2022
  • Weekly Wrap – 07 Oct 2022

Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (7 October 2022)

By David Blennerhassett


Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (7 October 2022)

By David Blennerhassett


Chinese Property Weekly – 7 October 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.


Chinese Property Weekly – 7 October 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.


Country Style Cooking Restaurant Chain Pre-IPO – The Positives – A Second Attempt at Profitability

By Ethan Aw

  • Country Style Cooking Restaurant Chain (1985552D HK) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Country Style Cooking Restaurant Chain (CSCRC) is a Chinese quick service restaurant (QSR) chain situated in China. It operates two brands, namely: CSC and Rice Space, which are all self-operated. 
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal. 

Jenscare (健世科技) IPO Trading: Weak Demand and Share Concentration

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Jenscare raised HKD 154.8m (USD 28m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Monday, October 10th.
  • In the previous note, we looked at the company’s business lines of medical devices for structural heart disease. We are of the view that the company’s valuation is unjustifiably rich.
  • In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before trading debut.

Weekly Wrap – 07 Oct 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Times China
  2. China Jinmao Holdings
  3. Guangzhou R&F Properties
  4. Sunac China Holdings
  5. Evergrande

and more…


Weekly Wrap – 07 Oct 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Times China
  2. China Jinmao Holdings
  3. Guangzhou R&F Properties
  4. Sunac China Holdings
  5. Evergrande

and more…


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Daily Brief China: CALB, PICC Property & Casualty H, Greatpower Nickel & Cobalt Materials, MicroPort NeuroTech, China Oil And Gas, CIFI Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • CALB IPO: Trading Debut
  • FTSE China 50 Index Rebalance Preview: One Change Could Increase to Three
  • Greatpower Nickel and Cobalt Materials Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • MicroPort NeuroTech (2172.HK) 22H1 – Advantages Deserve Recognition, but with Overvaluation Risk
  • China Oil & Gas – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia: CIFI Holdings, NagaCorp Ltd, Yuexiu Property
  • Morning Views Asia: CIFI Holdings, NagaCorp Ltd, Yuexiu Property

CALB IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George

  • CALB (3931 HK) priced its H Share at HK$38.00 per share to raise net proceeds of HK$9.9 billion (US$1.3 billion). The H Share will start trading tomorrow.
  • Grey market prices across various platforms show the shares last traded at HK$37.30-38.00 per share i.e., -2% down to unchanged compared to the IPO price.
  • Despite peer multiple derating, the IPO price continues to imply a discount to the median peer CY2023 EV/EBITDA multiple. CALB should be, at least, valued in line with peer multiples.

FTSE China 50 Index Rebalance Preview: One Change Could Increase to Three

By Brian Freitas

  • PICC Property & Casualty H (2328 HK) is a potential replacement for XPeng (9868 HK) at the December rebalance of the FTSE China 50 Index.
  • There are a couple of index constituents that are close to the deletion threshold rank and that could drive two more changes. The review cutoff date is 21 November.
  • Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) will be eligible for index inclusion if it is added to the FTSE All-World Index in December – we have that as a high probability event.

Greatpower Nickel and Cobalt Materials Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Greatpower Nickel & Cobalt Materials (1919613D CH) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Haitong and China Securities International. 
  • Greatpower Nickel and Cobalt Materials (GNCM) is a supplier of new energy battery materials in China, with a dual focus on nickel and cobalt for the production of cathode materials. 
  • The company is principally engaged in the processing and sales of refined cobalt products as well as the trading of nickel and cobalt-related products. 

MicroPort NeuroTech (2172.HK) 22H1 – Advantages Deserve Recognition, but with Overvaluation Risk

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Among domestic enterprises, MicroPort NeuroTech (2172 HK)’s product richness takes the lead. With the support of Microport Scientific (853 HK), the production quality system and capacity are relatively more guaranteed. 
  • Fierce competition and centralized procurement are the major challenges, but the rich domestic distribution network and promising internationalization prospects would help NeuroTech find way out.
  • By reducing the size of the IPO to maintain a good share price, at the expense of stock liquidity, it doesn’t really solve the problem.There’s risk of overvaluation for NeuroTech.

China Oil & Gas – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

By Shu Hui Woon

We view China Oil and Gas (COG) as “Medium Risk” on the LARA scale. This takes into account: [1] regulatory risk, with the company having experienced delays of over three years in cost pass-throughs for tariffs in Qinghai (since resolved); [2] exposure to oil price volatility in the small upstream oil and gas (O&G) segment; and [3] any aggressive debt-funded acquisitions, which we remain cautious about following the company’s acquisition of a 22% stake in Shandong Shengli in 2021. COG’s main asset is its 51% interest in downstream gas provider China City Natural Gas (CCNG), with the remaining 49% held by Kunlun Energy, a subsidiary of SOE PetroChina. Hence, cash leakage from dividends is significant. We believe the relationship with Kunlun helps secure COG’s gas supply and improves the company’s ability to obtain gas distribution concessions. In addition, PetroChina’s parent, China National Petroleum Corporation, had previously provided financing to CCNG at competitive rates.

Our Credit Bias on COG is “Stable”, given COG’s solid revenue growth from natural gas sales and distribution. Additionally, the upstream O&G business has benefited from strong oil prices. It has also expanded into production and sales of coal gasification, further diversifying the businesses. COG has a sound liquidity profile and reasonable access to funding. That said, we remain cautious about the financial performance of Shandong Shengli as COG has provided guarantees for its banking facilities, which could impact COG’s credit profile.  

Controversies are “Immaterial” and the ESG Impact on Credit is “Neutral”.


Morning Views Asia: CIFI Holdings, NagaCorp Ltd, Yuexiu Property

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Morning Views Asia: CIFI Holdings, NagaCorp Ltd, Yuexiu Property

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Li Auto, CALB, Fosun Tourism, Hygeia Healthcare Group, ABM Investama and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Small Step or Giant Leap?
  • CALB IPO Trading – Last of the Lot with the Least Demand of the Lot
  • Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Ride on Travel Demand and Capacity Recovery
  • Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078.HK) 22H1 – The Logic and the Outlook
  • Asia HY Monthly – September 2022 – Lucror Analytics

HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Small Step or Giant Leap?

By Brian Freitas

  • Currently at 69 index members, we just could reach 80 constituents at the December rebalance. That would leave the index committee to plan the move to 100 constituents in 2023.
  • We list 10 potential inclusions to the index in December. One-way turnover is just under 4% and inclusions of all stocks will increase index market cap coverage significantly.
  • Shorts are more than 3% of free float on five of the potential inclusions and these stocks could see some short covering ahead of the announcement of the changes.

CALB IPO Trading – Last of the Lot with the Least Demand of the Lot

By Sumeet Singh

  • CALB raised around US$1.2bn in its Hong Kong IPO, after pricing its offering at the low-end.
  • CALB undertakes design, R&D, production and sales of EV batteries and Energy Storage Systems (ESS) products.
  • In this note, we will talk about the demand for the deal and other trading dynamics.

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Ride on Travel Demand and Capacity Recovery

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Dragged by partial disposal by its parent, Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) had a bad month in Sep and its share price is now back to early-2020 level. 
  • 1H22 has seen good loss reduction and 2H22 outlook is on positive trend. Booking momentum at Club Med is encouraging and operational capacity will return to the 2H19 level.
  • Atlantis Sanya has experienced gradual recovery in the Golden Week after the large-scale lockdown of Sanya in Aug. Completion of Lijiang and Taicang FOLIDAY Town will boost FY23.

Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078.HK) 22H1 – The Logic and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Hygeia had good performance in 2022H1,mainly because its business layout is mostly in lower-tier cities and its medical services belong to rigid demand. So, the impact of pandemic was limited.
  • Hygeia is better than Topchoice and Aier Eye Hospital. The business model of specialized hospital is better than that of general hospital. Among for-profit hospitals, we are bullish on Hygeia.
  • We think Hygeia will keep strong growth momentum in the future due to high demand. But pandemic and policy risk would weigh on valuations/sustainable bullish sentiment. Short-term trades are recommended.

Asia HY Monthly – September 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors’ understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.


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Daily Brief China: Tianqi Lithium, Tencent, Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare, Road King Infrastructure, Cubic City Service Apartment Group and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • FTSE All-World/​​​​All-Cap Index Rebalance Preview (Dec): Quieter Than Usual as IPOs Dry Up
  • China Internet Weekly (3Oct2022): Tencent, NetEase, Alibaba, Kuaishou, Uxin
  • EQD | Tencent (700 HK): Time to Take off Hedges and Leverage up Using Options
  • Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare (688271.CH) – Overvalued; Stock Price Will Return to Rationality
  • Morning Views Asia: Road King Infrastructure, Vedanta Resources
  • Cubic City Service Apartment Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet

FTSE All-World/​​​​All-Cap Index Rebalance Preview (Dec): Quieter Than Usual as IPOs Dry Up

By Brian Freitas

  • We see 4 potential inclusions to the FTSE All-World and All-Cap indices that will be implemented at the close of trading on 16 December.
  • There are a couple of other recent listings that are close to the investable market cap threshold and could be added to the All-Cap index.
  • Given the lack of IPO in the April to August period, the rebalance will be quieter than usual though lock-up expiries will keep things interesting.

China Internet Weekly (3Oct2022): Tencent, NetEase, Alibaba, Kuaishou, Uxin

By Ming Lu

  • The global game market can shrink in 2022, which will impact Chinese game companies’ global diversification.
  • NetEase formally launched its own social networking service to compete with Tencent.
  • Kuaishou announced that it would launch an e-commerce channel on its App’s homepage.

EQD | Tencent (700 HK): Time to Take off Hedges and Leverage up Using Options

By Simon Harris

  • Stock has fallen 17% since Sep 15th, and implied vols have picked up
  • The fundamentals remain strong and tech momentum may be shifting
  • We suggest two directional trades using options to play earnings

Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare (688271.CH) – Overvalued; Stock Price Will Return to Rationality

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • United Imaging’s high valuation is driven by pandemic/policy dividends. After the impact of COVID-19 fades,the market needs new stories to judge a sustainable business model with increasing investment value.
  • Although in the name of domestic substitution of high-end medical imaging equipment, most of sales still come from middle/low-end products. The real competitiveness in high-end market remains to be seen.
  • United Imaging’s fundamentals and prospects hardly justify a market value of more than RMB100 billion. It’s expected that the stock price will return to rationality in the future.

Morning Views Asia: Road King Infrastructure, Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Cubic City Service Apartment Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Cubic City Service Apartment Group (CCSAG HK) is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Morgan Stanley and CCB International. 
  • Cubic City Service Apartment Group (CCSAG) is a rental apartment services platform, which pioneered the centralized rental apartment model in China, according to the company. 
  • It provides rental apartments in centrally managed buildings with modern facilities. As of 30 Jun 2022 (1Q23), the company operates 76,190 apartments nationwide across 394 locations in 26 cities. 

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Daily Brief China: EVOC Intelligent Technology Company Limited H, Swire Pacific (A), Swire Pacific (B), Tencent, Jinke Smart Services and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • EVOC’s H Share Class Meeting on 19 October
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Swire Pacific, SATS/WFS, Hitachi Metal, Jinke Smart, Porsche
  • Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings: 30th Sept – Swire Pac’s Bs, Joinn Laboratories, Techtronic
  • ECM Weekly (2nd Oct 2022) – Onewo, Leapmotor, CALB, Socionext, WCP, Oyo, Ixigo, Tencent, Taiwan Cemt
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Jinke Smart, Pine Care, MACA, Hitachi Metals

EVOC’s H Share Class Meeting on 19 October

By Arun George

  • EVOC Intelligent Technology Company Limited H (2308 HK)‘s H Shareholders’ class meeting is scheduled for 19 October. The IFA considers the offer to be fair and reasonable.
  • The key conditions are approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (<10% of all independent H Shareholders’ rejection). There is no minimum acceptance condition.
  • The offer is attractive and should gain approval. At last close and for a 7 November payment, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 2.9% and 26.0%, respectively. 

Last Week in Event SPACE: Swire Pacific, SATS/WFS, Hitachi Metal, Jinke Smart, Porsche

By David Blennerhassett

  • Historically, when Swire (B) (87 HK)Swire (A) (19 HK) gets more than 6% from 3mo Avg VWAP Ratio, there is statistically significant reversion. We are now at 6.8%. 
  • The SATS (SATS SP)  / WFS transaction appears all stitched up with major shareholder Temasek backing the deal. The acquisition is expected to close in 1Q23, subject to regulatory clearance.   
  • We had the heads up days (or a week plus) ago, and now it is official. Bain has now launched its Tender Offer for Hitachi Metals (5486 JP) at ¥2,181/share.

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings: 30th Sept – Swire Pac’s Bs, Joinn Laboratories, Techtronic

By David Blennerhassett

  • The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
  • Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute. 
  • These insights may also flag those companies where shares have been pledged. Stocks mentioned include Swire Pacific (B) (87 HK), Joinn Laboratories (H) (6127 HK), and Techtronic Industries (669 HK).

ECM Weekly (2nd Oct 2022) – Onewo, Leapmotor, CALB, Socionext, WCP, Oyo, Ixigo, Tencent, Taiwan Cemt

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • On the IPO front, all listing this week failed to impress which means that the HK and Korean markets are probably in for a slow end of the year.
  • Taiwan Cement (1101 TT) and Embassy Office Parks REIT (EMBASSY IN) were the two large placements this week. We also looked at possible Tencent (700 HK) linked blocks.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Jinke Smart, Pine Care, MACA, Hitachi Metals

By David Blennerhassett


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Daily Brief China: Jinke Smart Services, West China Cement, Agile Property Holdings, China SCE and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • (Mostly) Asia M&A: September 2022 Roundup
  • Weekly Wrap – 30 Sep 2022
  • Weekly Wrap – 30 Sep 2022
  • Chinese Property Weekly – 30 September 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Chinese Property Weekly – 30 September 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • China SCE – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

(Mostly) Asia M&A: September 2022 Roundup

By David Blennerhassett

  • For the month of September, 11 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$3bn.
  • The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in September was ~40%, and a year-to-date average of 39%.
  • This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.

Weekly Wrap – 30 Sep 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. China Jinmao Holdings
  2. Guangzhou R&F Properties
  3. Sunac China Holdings
  4. Evergrande
  5. Central China Real Estate

and more…


Weekly Wrap – 30 Sep 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. China Jinmao Holdings
  2. Guangzhou R&F Properties
  3. Sunac China Holdings
  4. Evergrande
  5. Central China Real Estate

and more…


Chinese Property Weekly – 30 September 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.


Chinese Property Weekly – 30 September 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.


China SCE – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

By Shu Hui Woon

We view China SCE as “High Risk” on the LARA scale. Our assessment reflects the risks stemming from the company’s fluctuating performance and high financial leverage. SCE specialises in mid-range and high-end residential properties. It has an established presence in Quanzhou and Xiamen, which are both economically vibrant markets with high growth potential. The company has also been diversifying outside Fujian, with the Yangtze River Delta region now its largest contributor in terms of contracted sales.

The bulk of the land bank is located in Tier 1 and 2 cities, which will likely see a rebound when the industry recovers. We like SCE’s diversification and geographical coverage, but remain concerned about execution risks amid the competitive operating environment. Separately, the company’s use of co-operative projects (significant use of JVs and material minority interest) points to off-balance-sheet debt, which would in turn suggest poor corporate governance.

Our fundamental Credit Bias on SCE is “Negative” on account of the weak contracted sales, declining liquidity and weakened credit metrics amid the industry downturn. The company also faces heightened refinancing risk for its upcoming debt, while access to onshore funding remains uncertain. Moreover, the company’s increased dependency on secured borrowings to raise funds will reduce its financial flexibility. That said, SCE intends to dispose of assets to raise cash, which could temporarily alleviate the liquidity pressure. Its land bank includes land in upper-tier cities, where economic fundamentals might be stronger and sales should rebound once the operating conditions improve.

Controversies are “Immaterial” despite reputational risk on account of the increasing number of property-quality related disputes with customers. The ESG Impact on Credit is “Neutral”. We note positively the company’s willingness to honour debt obligations.


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