Category

China

Daily Brief China: Xinyi Glass Holdings, Agile Property Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Xinyi Glass (868): Efficient Way to Ride Chinese Property Market Revival
  • Weekly Wrap – 16 Dec 2022
  • Weekly Wrap – 16 Dec 2022

Xinyi Glass (868): Efficient Way to Ride Chinese Property Market Revival

By Henry Soediarko

  • The Chinese property market is undergoing a revival story initiated by the government.
  • Xinyi Glass Holdings (868 HK) main product is a key component for real estate developers.
  • Xinyi Glass has a much cleaner balance sheet compared to the property developers. 

Weekly Wrap – 16 Dec 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Kawasan Industri Jababeka
  2. Tata Motors Ltd
  3. Yuzhou Group
  4. Powerlong Real Estate Holdings
  5. Sunac China Holdings

and more…


Weekly Wrap – 16 Dec 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Kawasan Industri Jababeka
  2. Tata Motors Ltd
  3. Yuzhou Group
  4. Powerlong Real Estate Holdings
  5. Sunac China Holdings

and more…


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Daily Brief China: Alibaba (ADR), Yashili International Holdings, HKEX, Sa Sa International Hldgs, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Pinduoduo, Agile Property Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • China ADRs Delisting – Christmas Came a Day Earlier than We Expected – No Delisting Risk for Now
  • Yashili/Mengniu: Are We There Yet?
  • China ADRs: PCAOB Resets the Clock on Delistings; Implications
  • Sa Sa Intl (178 HK): Is It Too Late to Buy Now?
  • Hang Seng Index, Alibaba, and Longfor Group
  • Pinduoduo: Initiation of Coverage – Growth Story & Recent Developments
  • Morning Views Asia: Kawasan Industri Jababeka

China ADRs Delisting – Christmas Came a Day Earlier than We Expected – No Delisting Risk for Now

By Sumeet Singh

  • Today PCAOB announced that they had secured complete access to inspect and investigate Chinese Firms for the first time in history.
  • This was on back of the Aug 2022 agreement between PCAOB, CSRC and MOF, which was followed up with a Hong Kong visit by PCAOB officials over Sep-Nov 2022.
  • We wrote about this on 14th Dec 2022 and expected the results to be out on Friday (16th Dec), they have come out a day earlier than we expected.

Yashili/Mengniu: Are We There Yet?

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 6 May, Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK) announced a pre-conditional Offer, by way of a Scheme, from China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK).
  • Pre-Conditions concern three sales and purchase agreements, all of which Yashili shareholders voted through on the 16 August.
  • From a regulatory standpoint, various conditions attached to Dumex China remain outstanding. But the wording in the most recent monthly update suggests the process is getting to the pointy end.

China ADRs: PCAOB Resets the Clock on Delistings; Implications

By Brian Freitas


Sa Sa Intl (178 HK): Is It Too Late to Buy Now?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • We think Sa Sa International Hldgs (178 HK)‘s risk-return payoff still look favourable even after the recent rally, which rides on the expectations of HK-mainland China border opening.  
  • Assuming net profit returns to 70% of pre-pandemic level in FY25, and applying a peak PER of 25x over 2011-2018, its share price still has 63% upside.
  • Release of pent-up demand, stabilisation of gross margin trend, improved cost dynamics and manageable financial position are all positive factors for Sa Sa. 

Hang Seng Index, Alibaba, and Longfor Group

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • After the sharp rally comes the pause; almost all constituents and leading indices are forming an inside week or a weekly Doji (small or long body with very little difference in open and close levels) [based on mid-day Thursday].
  • These two formations are a typical indication of market indecision.
  • However, it is unlikely to be quiet for the rest of December. 

Pinduoduo: Initiation of Coverage – Growth Story & Recent Developments

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Chinese internet giant, Pinduoduo.
  • In the past few months, various product categories of Pinduoduo, such as beauty and cosmetics, consumer electronics, and agriculture, have performed particularly well.
  • During the harvest festival, Pinduoduo worked with CCTV as well as assembled professors from China Agricultural University and the Chinese Academy for Agricultural Sciences to promote agricultural products.

Morning Views Asia: Kawasan Industri Jababeka

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Acotec Scientific Holdings, Yashili International Holdings, China Communications Construction, Meituan, DPC Dash, Weilong Delicious Global, Baidu, Alibaba Health Information Technology, Country Garden Holdings Co and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Acotec/Boston Scientific: Even Higher Proration
  • Yashili (1230 HK): Monthly Update Suggests that Pre-Condition Satisfaction in the Final Leg
  • CSI REITs Index: An Investable Benchmark Launches Today
  • Meituan Food Delivery 4Q Updates
  • DPC Dash IPO: Valuation
  • Weilong Delicious IPO: Thoughts on First Day Trading
  • Baidu: Initiation of Coverage – Market Position & Key Drivers
  • Alibaba Health Information Technology (241.HK) FY23H1 – Concerns Behind the Performance Turnaround
  • Morning Views Asia: Country Garden Holdings Co

Acotec/Boston Scientific: Even Higher Proration

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 12 December, Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669 HK) announced a Partial Offer from Boston Scientific (BSX US)
  • The Offer Price of $20/share is for up to 65% of shares out. Irrevocables total up to 60.14% of shares out, sufficient to clear the minimum tendering condition.
  • My initial read was that the proration was simply 65%. That was wrong. It is higher. Plus there are some interesting quirks to avoid breaching the public float post-Offer.

Yashili (1230 HK): Monthly Update Suggests that Pre-Condition Satisfaction in the Final Leg

By Arun George

  • Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)‘s latest monthly update suggests that the remaining pre-condition, the 25% Yashili acquisition, is entering the final stages towards being satisfied. 
  • The wording “in the course of processing the relevant application” suggests that the government authorities will grant the new registration certificate, which should be received shortly.
  • The gross spread is 6.2%. The downside is low as both Danone SA (BN FP) and China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK) can waive conditions to satisfy the pre-condition.

CSI REITs Index: An Investable Benchmark Launches Today

By Brian Freitas

  • The China Securities Index (CSI) will launch the CSI REITs Index today. The index currently has 14 constituents, and the REITs will be capped at 15% of the index weight.
  • We expect another 6 REITs to be added to the index at the March rebalance. And then at least another 3 more in June.
  • The launch of the index should result in ETFs and other passive investment products being floated which should further enhance market liquidity and bring long-term benefits to the market.

Meituan Food Delivery 4Q Updates

By Xin Yu, CFA

  • Meituan food delivery order growth slowed down in Oct and Nov due to covid restrictions.
  • Meituan Instashopping continued to grow fast in terms of its daily orders.
  • TikTok food delivery service so far hasn’t posed big threats to Meituan. 

DPC Dash IPO: Valuation

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • DPC Dash (1405 HK) is the exclusive master franchisee of Domino’s Pizza in mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau with around 546 stores as of 9M2022.
  • With Domino’s trailing Pizza Hut in the Chinese market, we think DPC Dash doesn’t deserve to trade on par with other leading Domino’s Master Franchisees around the world.
  • Therefore, we see an opportunity to make money on the short side, once the IPO is completed.

Weilong Delicious IPO: Thoughts on First Day Trading

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Weilong Delicious Global (9985 HK) has priced its IPO at HK$10.56 per share, slightly above the bottom of the IPO price range of HK$10.4-11.4 per share.
  • The company’s HK offering was oversubscribed by 10.53x while the international offering was oversubscribed by 2.6x.
  • Even at the above price, Weilong’s IPO is still at a significant premium to domestic as well as international peers.

Baidu: Initiation of Coverage – Market Position & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Chinese internet behemoth, Baidu.
  • The company’s operating loss and margin year over year and quarter over quarter for AI Cloud improved.
  • Their new AI businesses, like AI Cloud and Intelligent Driving, are in line with China’s national ambitions and digital innovation.

Alibaba Health Information Technology (241.HK) FY23H1 – Concerns Behind the Performance Turnaround

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Although Alibaba Health turned loss into profit in FY23H1, it was mainly benefited from the obvious effect of expenses control,which isn’t a long-term solution to achieve the goal of profit. 
  • Alibaba Health has a more difficult problem. The logic of relying on multiple entrances to obtain customers to drive online drug sales has failed to bring higher revenue growth.
  • In other to keep sustainable growth, it’s important for Alibaba Health to further improve user conversion rate. It is also urgent to actively expand new business growth points.

Morning Views Asia: Country Garden Holdings Co

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Haidilao, Alibaba (ADR), Xtep International, Acotec Scientific Holdings, Weilong Delicious Global, Seazen (Formerly Future Land) and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Haidilao’s Imminent SpinOff of the Super Hi Overseas Business – Index Treatment and Implications
  • China ADRs Delisting – Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks
  • EQD | Alibaba (BABA US): Revisiting the December Call Ratios
  • Long-Term Growth Intact: Xtep
  • Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669.HK) – Logic Behind Boston Scientific’s Partial Offer and the Impact
  • Morning Views Asia: Yuexiu Property
  • Weilong Delicious Global IPO Trading – Liked by Retail but Still at a Premium
  • Morning Views Asia: Yuexiu Property

Haidilao’s Imminent SpinOff of the Super Hi Overseas Business – Index Treatment and Implications

By Travis Lundy

  • On 11 July, Haidilao (6862 HK) announced it would propose to spin off its international restaurant business (13-15% of revenue) to shareholders and employees. Shareholders approved in August.
  • There were interim announcements and indeed interim reports with some information, but not a lot. But Super Hi International Holding was headed for separate listing in HK. 
  • Last week, Haidilao said it was going ahead with a Listing by Introduction pending listing approval by HKEX. Haidilao shares go ex- 16 December. Index providers have announced treatment.

China ADRs Delisting – Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

By Sumeet Singh

  • PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.
  • The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.
  • In this note, we’ll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.

EQD | Alibaba (BABA US): Revisiting the December Call Ratios

By Simon Harris

  • In November we published on the upside potential in Alibaba 
  • Stock has rallied and the call ratio we recommended has performed very well
  • We evaluate the trade and look at potential trade options

Long-Term Growth Intact: Xtep

By Xin Yu, CFA

  • 4Q22 retail sales was negatively affected by the covid restrictions
  • Sales growth is expected to recover in 1Q23 with China’s nationwide loosening policy.
  • Long term growth is intact with continued upgrades of brands, products and channels

Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669.HK) – Logic Behind Boston Scientific’s Partial Offer and the Impact

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Boston Scientific angles for majority stake with US$523 million for Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669HK), which is the largest acquisition of a Chinese medical device company by a MNC since 2014.
  • Completion of the Partial Offer would further strengthen Boston Scientific’s presence in China and create the potential for commercialization of Acotec products globally. It’s a win-win deal for both sides.
  • Companies listed in HKEX don’t have to seek valuation within HKEX system. If they can find “new anchor points”, they’ll have higher valuation.Chapter 18A companies’ future stock prices would diverge.

Morning Views Asia: Yuexiu Property

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Weilong Delicious Global IPO Trading – Liked by Retail but Still at a Premium

By Sumeet Singh

  • Weilong Delicious Global (WDG), a spicy snack food company in China, raised around US$130m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • According to F&S, WDG ranked first among spicy snack food enterprises in China, with a market share of 6.2%, and in the seasoned flour product and spicy vegetable snacks categories.
  • We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

Morning Views Asia: Yuexiu Property

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: XPeng, Acotec Scientific Holdings, Bilibili Inc, Li Auto, Tencent, Akeso Biopharma Inc, Seazen (Formerly Future Land), NetEase and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HSCEI: Index Handling Changes for Secondary & Dual-Primary Listings
  • Acotec Scientific Holdings: Boston Scientific’s Partial Offer
  • Acotec Scientific (6669 HK)’s Partial Offer of HK$20 from Boston Scientific
  • BILIBILI (BILI US): Can Achieving Breakeven Justify US$10bn Market Cap?
  • HSTECH: Index Handling Changes & Flows in March
  • China Internet Weekly (12Dec2022): Bilibili, Tencent, JD.com
  • Akeso Biopharma (9926.HK) – Behind the Deal with Summit: A Snake Swallows an Elephant?
  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke, Greenko Energy Holdings, Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings
  • NetEase: Initiation of Coverage – Market Position & Other Drivers

HSCEI: Index Handling Changes for Secondary & Dual-Primary Listings

By Brian Freitas

  • Hang Seng Indexes has changed the index handling treatment for Secondary Listings and Dual Primary Listings from the next rebalance in March.
  • The changes could lead to an increase in the index weighting for Li Auto (2015 HK) and the inclusion of XPeng (9868 HK) at the March rebalance.
  • The improved rankings for the Secondary and Dual Primary listings will lead to other changes to the index in March.

Acotec Scientific Holdings: Boston Scientific’s Partial Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669 HK), a Chinese medical technology company, has announced a Partial Offer from Boston Scientific (BSX US).
  • The Offer Price for up to 65% of shares out is HK20/share, a 31.6% premium to last close, but below last year’s IPO price of HK$23.80/share. 
  • Irrevocables who intend to tender a total of up to 60.14% of shares out. This includes the CEO and the key pre-IPO investor. 

Acotec Scientific (6669 HK)’s Partial Offer of HK$20 from Boston Scientific

By Arun George

  • Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669 HK) disclosed a partial offer from Boston Scientific (BSX US) to acquire a maximum of 203.7 million shares at HK$20 per share.
  • The partial offer is conditional on the offeror hitting 50.01% voting rights and approval by the requisite majority of shareholders. Irrevocables represent a minimum of 55.14% of outstanding shares.
  • Despite the recent share price pop on the back of FDA approval for Vericor, the partial offer represents an all-time share price high. Therefore, the offer will be declared unconditional.  

BILIBILI (BILI US): Can Achieving Breakeven Justify US$10bn Market Cap?

By Eric Chen

  • BILIBILI shares have rallied more than 200% since early November on prospects of China exiting zero-COVID, short covering, and accelerated breakeven timeline.
  • Yet simply achieving breakeven doesn’t justify its US$10 billion valuation. It has to be accompanied by decent profitable growth – an unlikely scenario given the aggressive downsizing needed for breakeven.
  • BILI’s businesses also entail structurally low margin. Stock could easily de-rate by 30% or more when growth euphoria recedes and disappointed profitability checks in during 2023.

HSTECH: Index Handling Changes & Flows in March

By Brian Freitas


China Internet Weekly (12Dec2022): Bilibili, Tencent, JD.com

By Ming Lu

  • Bilibili is dismissing employees in live streaming, cartoon, and main station.
  • The Chinese mobile game market began to expand, but the global market is shrinking.
  • JD.com chairman reorganized its company, reducing the departments from eight to three.

Akeso Biopharma (9926.HK) – Behind the Deal with Summit: A Snake Swallows an Elephant?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926 HK) and Summit Therapeutics entered into a collaborative and licensing agreement for AK112, which has set a new record for China’s innovative drug license-out cooperation. 
  • While the market remained positive about the transaction, there are also doubts. We deep dive the potential logic of the deal. 
  • We recommended investors not to neglect “the nature of the deal” and “the real motivation” behind. It’s also important to see whether the subsequent operations can make some achievements overseas.

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke, Greenko Energy Holdings, Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


NetEase: Initiation of Coverage – Market Position & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on online gaming giant, NetEase.
  • In the quarter, the new expansion packs unveiled for the summer holidays, the legacy PC side of the company, which includes New Westward Journey Online 2 and Fantasy Westward Journey Online, continues to attract players.
  • Among other updates, NetEase has recently announced that the company’s game division, NetEase Games, acquired Quantic Dream, one of the world’s major independent video game developers.

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Daily Brief China: Haidilao, China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Central China Real Estate and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Haidilao’s Spin-Off of Super Hi: Index Implications
  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570.HK) – The Privatization Rumor and the Outlook
  • Where to Sell Hong Kong
  • Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Sunac China Holdings

Haidilao’s Spin-Off of Super Hi: Index Implications

By Brian Freitas


China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570.HK) – The Privatization Rumor and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • China TCM’s privatization rumor led to large fluctuation of its share price last week. Since there have been related rumors twice, this may not be completely over yet.
  • China TCM’s performance may not rebound quickly due to short-term challenges in concentrated TCM granules business. 
  • However, the decline in the revenue side could be a temporary phenomenon. After a difficult period, if the Company’s business could recover as expected, share price would rebound. 

Where to Sell Hong Kong

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Our long in H shares is looking stretched and we need to fine tune an exit strategy with counter balance pivots. HSI is the short on strength at trendline.
  • A50 13,400 intermediate resistance stands out to cap near term strength and USD/CNH 9.0/01 is our USD buy support that aligns with an A50 top.
  • Consensus is now bullish China (wrinkles to work through) as we face a more uncertain global cycle in Q1. HSI faces wedge and trendline resistance!

Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Sunac China Holdings

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Acotec Scientific Holdings, Tencent, China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Country Garden Services Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades
  • Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669 HK): Base Business, Geography Expansion, New Launch to Drive Growth
  • ECM Weekly (11th Dec 2022) – ITail, Sunshine, Weilong, VinFast, Skymark, Tian Tu, Cntry Gard, Nippon
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Xingda, Nitro, Chip Eng Seng, Traditional Chinese Medicine
  • Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669.HK) – A Game Changer with Solid Long-Term Logic
  • Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (9 Dec): Hopefluent, Matrix, Country Garden Services

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669 HK): Base Business, Geography Expansion, New Launch to Drive Growth

By Tina Banerjee

  • Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669 HK) is an early-mover in peripheral drug coated balloon market in China and holds a dominant 85%+ market share.  
  • On November 7, Acotec received its first FDA approval for Vericor, a peripheral support catheter designed to enhance access to peripheral vessels.
  • Acotec started 2022 on a strong note, with revenue increasing 25% y/y in H1 2022 due to increasing adoption of the company’s product in Chinese hospitals.

ECM Weekly (11th Dec 2022) – ITail, Sunshine, Weilong, VinFast, Skymark, Tian Tu, Cntry Gard, Nippon

By Sumeet Singh


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Xingda, Nitro, Chip Eng Seng, Traditional Chinese Medicine

By David Blennerhassett


Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669.HK) – A Game Changer with Solid Long-Term Logic

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The peripheral vascular interventional device market in China is mainly dominated by foreign companies, but leading domestic company such as Acotec is the one to break the current market pattern.
  • With more products getting CE/FDA approval in the future, Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669 HK) is able to enter more overseas markets. Acotec’s globalization process will diversify the revenue stream. 
  • Acotec has turned loss into profit by relying on product revenue. The Company has entered a new stage of innovation and harvest. We think Acotec has solid long term logic. 

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (9 Dec): Hopefluent, Matrix, Country Garden Services

By David Blennerhassett

  • The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
  • Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
  • These insights may flag those companies where shares have been pledged. Stocks mentioned include Hopefluent Group (733 HK), Matrix Holdings (1005 HK), Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK).

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Daily Brief China: Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings, Agile Property Holdings, 21Vianet Group, Seazen (Formerly Future Land), CIFI Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Yue Yuen (551 HK): Putting Their Best Feet Forward
  • Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings (551.HK) – Challenging Prospects Overshadow Undervaluation
  • Chinese Property Weekly – 09 December 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Chinese Property Weekly – 09 December 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Quick Idea’s
  • Seazen Group Placement – Won’t Do Much to Debt Profile, However Momentum Has Been Very Strong
  • Weekly Wrap – 09 Dec 2022
  • Weekly Wrap – 09 Dec 2022

Yue Yuen (551 HK): Putting Their Best Feet Forward

By David Blennerhassett

  • Despite a softening global demand backdrop, Yue Yuen Industrial (551 HK), a global leader in the manufacture of athletic/outdoor and casual footwear, recently recorded its best 9M results since 2017.
  • Yue Yuen’s shares have only just recovered from a 20-year low.
  • From both a historical perspective and relative to peers, Yue Yuen is undemanding here. 

Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings (551.HK) – Challenging Prospects Overshadow Undervaluation

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Yue Yuen is essentially a large traditional manufacturing company, which once benefitted from China’s cheap labor and has brilliant history. But challenges seem inevitable as labor costs gradually increase.
  • Despite 22Q1-Q3 solid performance, in the environment of high inventory of brand customers and downward pressure on global economy, the order visibility of Yue Yuen in 22Q4/23Q1 could be low.
  • Either domestic demand or external demand, the overall situation may not be optimistic. Yue Yuen’s valuation is basically lower than its peers. However, we still recommend investors to remain vigilant.

Chinese Property Weekly – 09 December 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.


Chinese Property Weekly – 09 December 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.


Quick Idea’s

By Turtles all the way down

  • 111, inc (YI) has run up to $3.25. For a spread of only about 11%.
  • Which is not all that attractive since there is no definitive agreement signed. So I am closing it with a quick 13% gain here.
  • These Chinese merger situations sometimes randomly spike up, and I think it is wise to trade around them when upside isn’t as juicy anymore.

Seazen Group Placement – Won’t Do Much to Debt Profile, However Momentum Has Been Very Strong

By Clarence Chu

  • Seazen (Formerly Future Land) (1030 HK) is looking to raise US$175m from its top-up placement.
  • The deal is a relatively small one at just 9.5 days of three month ADV and 4.9% of current mcap.
  • In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.

Weekly Wrap – 09 Dec 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. China SCE
  2. Hopson Development
  3. Sino-Ocean Group
  4. Greentown China
  5. China Jinmao Holdings

and more…


Weekly Wrap – 09 Dec 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. China SCE
  2. Hopson Development
  3. Sino-Ocean Group
  4. Greentown China
  5. China Jinmao Holdings

and more…


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Daily Brief China: Trina Solar Co Ltd, Tian Tu Capital, Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings, Sunshine Insurance, Growatt Technology, BOC Hong Kong (BOC HK), CIFI Holdings, Medbanks Network Technology and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • China Rebalances at the Close Today- BIG Flows
  • Tian Tu Capital Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Hampered by Weakened Market Sentiment. Guiding Weak FY22
  • Buy Shenzhou on Margin Recovery
  • Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: Trading Debut
  • Growatt IPO: PHIP Update
  • BOC HK – Negative Lending Growth, As Credit Costs Ratchet Higher?
  • Morning Views Asia: China SCE, CIFI Holdings, Greentown China, Hopson Development, Sino-Ocean Service
  • Pre-IPO Medbanks Network Technology – PHIP Updates: The Business Model Has yet to Be Verified

China Rebalances at the Close Today- BIG Flows

By Brian Freitas


Tian Tu Capital Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Hampered by Weakened Market Sentiment. Guiding Weak FY22

By Clarence Chu

  • Tian Tu Capital (1390587D CH) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Tiantu Capital (TTC) is a private equity/venture capital investor and fund manager with a focus on Chinese consumer brands and companies.
  • The fund manages capital from investors including institutional investors, multinational corporations, financial institutions, and high net-worth individuals. It also directly invests through its own capital as well.

Buy Shenzhou on Margin Recovery

By Xin Yu, CFA

  • Gross margin is under pressure throughout 2022 but will recover in 2023
  • Brands have been focusing on destocking and the inventory levels trend down
  • Capacity is expected to grow by 10% to low teens y/y in 2023

Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George


Growatt IPO: PHIP Update

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Growatt is a distributed energy solution provider with the #1 market share for PV inverters and energy storage inverters, allowing them strong potential to benefit from a growing market.
  • In November 2022, the company received approval from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the IPO has a placeholder value of US$1bn, making it HKEX’s fourth largest IPO of 2022.
  • In this follow-up insight, we have highlighted and discussed some of the key new data points from the company’s latest Post Hearing Information Pack (PHIP).

BOC HK – Negative Lending Growth, As Credit Costs Ratchet Higher?

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Credit costs at present are only 20bps of loans, these can move to 100bps or higher
  • Population data even before 2H22 shows contraction, with negative implications
  • Property prices are turning down even faster, which is banks’ loan collateral

Morning Views Asia: China SCE, CIFI Holdings, Greentown China, Hopson Development, Sino-Ocean Service

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Pre-IPO Medbanks Network Technology – PHIP Updates: The Business Model Has yet to Be Verified

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Specialty Pharmacy Business is the main revenue contributor,but it’s hard for Medbanks to achieve breakeven or turn loss into profits by relying on this business due to its low margin.
  • Physician Research Assistance and Health Insurance Services have higher margin, but they have to face different challenges based on our analysis. They are hard to turn things around.
  • In fact, Medbanks does not control the core resources or establish high barriers in front of competition. Whether its ecological story would finally work still needs time to verify. 

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Daily Brief China: Xingda International, Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd, JD Logistics, OrbusNeich Medical Group, Anta Sports Products, Sunshine Insurance, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Sunac China Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Xingda Int’l (1899 HK): Kicking The Tyres
  • HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) Could Replace Ming Yuan Cloud (909 HK)
  • Xingda (1899 HK)’s Partial Offer from Management to Seize Statutory Control
  • Xingda International (1899 HK)’s to Draw a Privatisation Bid from Management?
  • JD Logistics (2618 HK): 3Q22 High Growth, Not Just Acquired But Organic, 29% Upside
  • Pre-IPO OrbusNeich Medical Group: Large Global Exposure Protects from Negative Price Effect in China
  • Anta Sports (2020 HK): Assessing the Impact of a Potential Amer Sports IPO
  • Sunshine Insurance Group IPO Trading – No Demand – Still Needs to Correct by 50%
  • Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, AIA, Tencent, and China Resource Land
  • Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, Greenland Holdings Corp, Sunac China Holdings

Xingda Int’l (1899 HK): Kicking The Tyres

By David Blennerhassett

  • Xingda International (1899 HK) is currently suspended “pursuant to The Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers“.
  • The controlling shareholders – more commonly known as the Five Parties – hold 45.6% of shares out. 
  • Two years ago, Xingda sought to spin-off its key operating vehicle. Perhaps the Five Parties are privatising Xingda, then IPOing Xingda Steel Tyre Cord. Or, cashing out their positions.

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) Could Replace Ming Yuan Cloud (909 HK)

By Brian Freitas


Xingda (1899 HK)’s Partial Offer from Management to Seize Statutory Control

By Arun George

  • Xingda International (1899 HK) disclosed a partial offer from management to acquire a maximum of 80.0 million shares at HK$1.88 per share, a 24.50% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • The pre-condition is Executive approval. The partial offer is conditional on the offeror hitting 50.01% voting rights and approval by the requisite majority of shareholders on the acceptance form. 
  • The partial offer is an opportunistic foray to seize statutory control as it would not be sufficiently enticing to overcome FIL’s 9.99% blocking stake in a privatisation scheme.

Xingda International (1899 HK)’s to Draw a Privatisation Bid from Management?

By Arun George

  • Xingda International (1899 HK) entered a trading halt pending the release of an announcement under the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. 
  • It is likely that the management, representing 45.60% of ordinary shares (through a five parties agreement), is seeking to privatise Xingda.
  • The bid is likely privatisation through a scheme. Due to FIL’s blocking stake, a decent premium is required, such as an offer approaching HK$2.00 (33% premium to the last close).  

JD Logistics (2618 HK): 3Q22 High Growth, Not Just Acquired But Organic, 29% Upside

By Ming Lu

  • The growth rate of total revenue accelerated in the third quarter of 2022.
  • We believe the organic growth was also strong besides the acquisition of Deppon.
  • We set an upside of 29% and a price target of HK$19.90.

Pre-IPO OrbusNeich Medical Group: Large Global Exposure Protects from Negative Price Effect in China

By Tina Banerjee

  • OrbusNeich Medical Group (NEICHZ HK) is among the top six players in PCI balloon markets in terms of sales volume in multiple countries including China, Japan, the U.S., and Europe.
  • OrbusNeich earns ~60% of revenue from Europe, Japan, and the U.S. The company’s high exposure to international markets safeguards it from the low prices commanded by China’s centralized procurement system.
  • With diversified product portfolio, robust inhouse production facilities, established global sales network, rich pipeline enabling continuous launching of new products, and growing market demand, OrbusNeich is well-positioned for strong growth.

Anta Sports (2020 HK): Assessing the Impact of a Potential Amer Sports IPO

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The potential IPO of Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)‘s 52.7% owned Amer Sports is positive in unlocking the latter’s underlying value, though the impact is quite limited.
  • Assuming a P/S of 1.8x (30% discount to peers) and 25% enlargement in share capital, we estimate the exercise may bring ~HK$6n of potential pre-tax deemed disposal gain.
  • Although Anta Sports may not receive any cash, it can still pay out special dividends given its Rmb12bn net cash, and this will raise FY23 dividend yield to 3.1%.  

Sunshine Insurance Group IPO Trading – No Demand – Still Needs to Correct by 50%

By Sumeet Singh

  • Sunshine Insurance Group (SIG), a life, health and P&C insurance company, raised around US$850m in its HK IPO.
  • SIG is an integrated insurance provider which offers both life and health (L&H) and property and casualty (P&C) insurance in China.
  • We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, AIA, Tencent, and China Resource Land

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The announcement of easing most Covid restrictions resulted in a new rally high, but the close was below at least the previous two-day open/closes, making it an outside day reversal pattern.
  • This note highlights the reversal patterns in HSI, HSTECH, AIA, and Tencent. These have some of the cleanest reversal patterns.
  • In real estate, SOEs like China Resource Land [-11.75% from 30th November intraday peak] and China Overseas Land [-9.7% from 29th intraday peak] reversed before the China Mainland Property index [6th December], a reflection of a short squeeze as a crucial driver of sector rally. Longfor peaked on 6th December and is down 17% after a 276% rally.

Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, Greenland Holdings Corp, Sunac China Holdings

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
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