China

• On the 9th of January, 2023, the Republic of Djibouti signed an MOU with Hong Kong Aerospace Technology (1725 HK) (HKAT) to develop a (reported) US$1bn international commercial “spaceport”.
• In the middle of last year, Djibouti announced plans to launch two nanosatellites to facilitate farming and other related activities.
• HKAT, a recent back-door listing, has a market cap of US$258mn. Wholly-owned subsidiary Gang Hang Ke (Shenzhen) Space Technology, has been successfully involved in the launch of ten satellites. 

• IQIYI aims to raise around US$500m via a follow-on ADS offering.
• While the company hasn’t stated its use of proceeds, it will probably use most of it to redeem convertible notes
• In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and  run the deal through our ECM framework.

• The Kingston Financial (1031 HK) scheme document is out with the scheme meeting scheduled for 9 February. The IFA considers the offer to be fair and reasonable. 
• Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (<10% of independent shareholders rejection) and the headcount test. No shareholder holds a blocking stake.
• Peer re-rating increases the headcount test risk. At the last close and for the 10 March payment, the gross and annualised spread is 5.3% and 42.2%, respectively.

• China recorded 270,000 increases in deaths in 2022 to 10.41m (+2.7% YoY, vs. flat in 2020). This is a sad demographic trend but favourable to Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK).  
• Death rate of 0.74% has returned to the 1974 level. With termination of “zero COVID” policy, this is poised to increase. This will also stimulate demand for its pre-need services.
• Despite a 73% rebound in share price from trough, valuation is still undemanding at 14.4x FY23F PER. This implies a 35% discount to the average of 22x since 2013. 

• WuXi Bio announced the placing of existing shares by substantial shareholder. Obviously, the share price was in  “comfortable position” for the management, so they think it’s time to take action.
• WuXi Bio faces the uncertainty of future high growth.GSK deal/AD drug orders cannot offset the loss of COVID-19 orders.We advised to invest when it’s in “sector resonance” with “difference in expectations”.
• What we’re most worried about this year isn’t recession/depression but Taiwan, which is the last card the US hasn’t yet played. If situation’s really bad,something may happen in Taiwan Strait.

The Asia HY Trade Book for January 2023 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia (ex-Japan) HY and crossover credits.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Country Garden Holdings Co
• Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings
• Yuexiu Property

• The Scheme Booklet is now out and Kingston Financial (1031 HK)‘s shareholders can vote on Chu Yuet Wah’s Offer on the 9 February.
• The Cancellation price of HK$0.30/share was a 47.78% premium to the undisturbed prices. It will not be increased. 
• Currently trading at a gross/annualised spread of 5.3%/44.4%, assuming payment on the 10 March. 

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Country Garden Holdings Co
• Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings
• Yuexiu Property

• Wuxi Biologics Holdings is looking to raise up to US$513m by selling about 1.3% of Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK). 
• This is the company’s 16th placement since it listed in June 2017. 
• In this note, we will discuss deal dynamics, past deal performance, and share the scores on our ECM framework.

• The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) is one of the most widely discussed indices in the Hang Seng Indices family.
• The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of “Mainland” Securities listed in Hong Kong.
• In this insight, we take a brief look at the selection criteria and the historical price performance of past Rebalance Events.

• Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US), along with several other Chinese tech names have rallied more than 100% over the past 2.5 months with the Chinese government indicating regulatory crackdowns are over.
• However, we think this could just be a temporary respite for tech names as there’s a lot more to be done in terms of a data security and privacy standpoint.
• Nevertheless, Alibaba Group (9988 HK) is still quite expensive, given that government interventions have pretty much curtailed Alibaba’s avenues for growth in the domestic market.

• The Chinese government may possibly buy minor shares in Alibaba and Tencent.
• JD.com’s long-term competitor, Dangdang, opened a bookstore in JD.com’s app.
• In 2022, both Tencent Video Account’s active user base and time on site reached 80% of We Chat.

• BABA US is up 85% from October lows and continues to trade well in 2023 up 32% in January
• Stock has benefitted from not only improved economic sentiment but also an end to the 2-year crack down on the Internet Sector
• We suggest using call ratios to increase upside leverage prior to earnings release

• Aier launched new hospital acquisition plan. Obviously, Aier hopes to maintain high growth through M&A funds. However, considering its national market layout,Aier is in the final stages of aggressive M&As.
• Based on our data, Aier’s endogenous growth is actually very weak. Once external M&As fail to drive high growth, Aier’s overall performance growth would decline significantly. Aier is grossly overvalued.
• We expect decreasing birth rate after COVID-19. Due to the fundamental changes in the population structure, the valuation system of all assets would be destroyed – The long logic doesn’t exist.

• On 11th Jan 2023, WM Motor Technology Co Ltd announced its intention to merge with Apollo Future Mobility (860 HK) .
• WM Motor failed to list in Hong Kong last year and this is essentially its attempt to undertake a reverse merger at a valuation well below its previous funding rounds.
• In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and  take an early look at its implications.

• Qingdao Ainnovation Technology Group (2121 HK) was listed on 27th Jan 2022, with its one-year lockup expiring on 27th January 2023.
• Qingdao AInnovation Technology Group is an AI solutions provider offering full-stack AI-based products and solutions.
• Coming up for one-year lockup expiry are the pre-IPO shareholders. Bulk of them are in the money as some have invested as early as 2018.

• Short video continued to accumulate active users in China and the company’s light-version grew the most rapidly.
• We believe the revenue growth rate will rise from 2Q23 and the company will have positive operating profit from 2024.
• We set the price target at HK$103, which is 44% over the market price.

• Tencent faces formidable resistance at 385 that may not be seen for a while. 385 is where old lows and old highs coincide.
• RSI is extended (ST sell and bounce). Buy volumes are descent but have been drifting since late 2022.
• 385 a good zone to sell cash positions or short to challenge pivot supports outlined. 320 is an intermediate level to hold to keep things glued together.

• China Power International (2380 HK) announced positive profit alert for FY22 at Rmb2.3-2.7bn, vs. Rmb516m losses in FY21. Such guidances are 14-34% ahead of current consensus forecasts.
• Disposal and acquisition gains of Rmb2.15bn are the main contributors. As we see further clean energy injections and coal-fired disposals going forward, there is room for more such gains. 
• Losses for core operations are Rmb300-700m in 2H22, a huge 73.5% YoY reduction. We will not read too much into HoH profitability retreat as this is due to hydropower seasonality.  

• Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs
• Things remain quiet on the IPO front and are likely to remain that way till CNY. Korea was once again the one that set the IPO ball rolling.
• Placements were a different matter with deal flow pickup up where it left off last week.

• Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
• Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
• We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

• The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
• Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
• Stocks mentioned include WWPKG Holdings Co Ltd (8069 HK), Tianyun International Holdings (6836 HK), Yeahka Limited (9923 HK), GHKGBA (1396 HK), and Flat Glass (6865 HK).

• The centralized procurement of interprovincial dental implants results were released. In our view, most of the profits from the midstream circulation and terminal sales of dental implants will be cleared.
• We analyzed some key points of Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (H) (3347 HK), HBM Holdings Limited (2142 HK), Brii Biosciences (2137 HK) and Jacobio Pharmaceuticals (1167 HK).
• Many “successful investors” may not realize that their huge returns in the past are mainly due to unexpected capital market exit channel dividends, which is hard to be copied.

• After Macau’s government renewed the concession periods for the city’s six incumbent gambling concessionaires for another 10 years, the key players are up 86% on average
• Both Melco International Development (200 HK) and Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO US) have gained a little over 100%. 
• Melco’s NAV discount is back out to 36%. The simple ratio – Melco/MCLO – is around the lowest level since Melco began consolidating MCLO in early 2017.

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

1. Lippo Karawaci
2. China SCE
3. China Jinmao Holdings
4. Guangzhou R&F Properties
5. Sunac China Holdings

and more…

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

1. Lippo Karawaci
2. China SCE
3. China Jinmao Holdings
4. Guangzhou R&F Properties
5. Sunac China Holdings

and more…

• In January 2021, Tianneng Power (819 HK)‘s (TPI) battery unit Tianneng Battery (688819 CH) (TBG) was listed on China’s Star Market, as discussed in Tianneng: Star Market Battery Spin-Off Priced.
• TBG is now proposing the issuance of GDRs, accounting for 10% of existing shares out, to be listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange.  
• A circular has been issued and TPI shareholders go to the vote on the 31 January. TPI currently holds 86.53% in TBG worth >300% of its market cap.

• China ( >20% of revenue ) changing its stance on COVID provides Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK) with an opportunity to crystallize its expansion plans there. 
• The border reopening between HK/China will provide a boost to its HK operations (>70% of revenue). The second half of H1 2023 results reflect an improving revenue trend for HK.
• The stock trades at 16x/11x FY23e/24e with ~15% of the market cap in cash and a dividend yield of 6.5%/9.5% FY23e/24e (based on ~100% payout ratio). 

• Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the government of Hangzhou, the eastern China city where the company is headquartered
• Alibaba and its finance affiliate Ant Group Co. Ltd. have been at the center of the Chinese government’s multi-year crackdown on the internet sector since October 2020.
• In 2021, Alibaba was fined a record 18.2 billion yuan ($2.6 billion) for monopolistic behavior.

• Positive response of China Education Group (839 HK)‘s placement indicated a good return of investor appetite to the sector. Its premium multiples stay well justified even after recent rally. 
• The HK$1.6bn proceeds will reduce gearing to 29.2% (including contract liabilities) from 41.7% with minimal dilution. Narrowing in valuation gap against asking price of targets means more M&A potential. 
• More funding for expansion of existing campuses, increase in accommodation and the set up of COVID-19 related curriculum will allow CEG to realise higher revenue per student.

• On 30th November we proposed a restructure of a bullish FXI US trade
• Since then FXI US has rallied 12% and implied vols have decreased significantly
• We evaluate the call ladder that we highlighted and consider what to do next

• Lu Daopei Medical Group (1816743D CH) Lu DaoPei Medical Group is looking to raise around US$400m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners are CITIC Securities, CMB International, and Macquarie.
• Lu DaoPei Medical Group (LDPM) is a hospital operator focusing on hematology healthcare services.
• As per F&S, the firm was the largest hematology healthcare services provider in China in terms of 2021 revenue.

• After China reopens and demand for COVID-19 testing drops sharply, Lepu has lost the big driving force of performance growth. The 2022 full year performance may not be optimistic.
• Lepu Medical Technology A (300003 CH) has begun to focus more on capital operation. As a holding platform, the valuable assets are spun off, which changes the valuation logic.
• Even if Lepu could finally digest the negative impact of centralized procurement, such development mode would still put pressure/uncertainties on its future performance, leading to lower-than-expected financial results.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• China SCE
• China Vanke
• CIFI Holdings
• Lippo Karawaci

• Binjiang Service Group (3316 HK) trades at 12.2x/9.5x FY22/23e with 32% of the market cap in net cash and a dividend yield of 5%/6.4% FY22e/23e (assuming a 60% payout). 
• The company has asserted it will maintain its payout ratio at 60% and conserve cash for M&A. Its approach will be conservative and involve lengthy due diligence.
• With an improving market environment and good results around the corner in March, we believe a rally to 30 HKD/share is within the realm of possibility.

• With the recent rally in the equity markets in Hong Kong and China, we think the asset play investment thesis for China Dongxiang Group Co (3818 HK) has revived.  
• We estimate its investment portfolio value may have increased by HK$2bn since end-Sep, yet market capitalisation only rose HK$500m, suggesting still significant 77% discount. 
• Encouraging recent developments at Alibaba Group (9988 HK) and Ant Financial, which both are its holdings, are positive. The reduction is losses for sportswear business is an added driver. 

• We expect BABA’s  revenue in C4Q22 to be in line with cons., non-GAAP net income to beat cons. by 6%, supported by cost reduction in Freshippo, Taocaicai and Taobao Deal. 
• Affected by logistics disruption and rising infections, we estimate BABA’s GMV and local consumer service in C4Q22 to decelerate compared to C3Q22. Both segments are to recover in C1Q23.
• We raise TP from US$110 to US$130 to reflect upsides from rebound of discretionary demand, slowing Douyin eCommerce growth, and easing regulatory environment. Our TP implies 13x PE in FY2024.

• CDP Holdings (1782198D CH) is looking to raise up to US$400m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
• CDP Holding (CDP) is a human capital management (HCM) service provider.
• As per CIC, CDP was the No. 1 HCM SaaS+ platform in China in terms of revenue generated from HCM SaaS+ services in 2021.

• Eva Precision Industrial Holdings (838 HK) has come off its lows but still trades at an attractive  7.8x/5x PE FY22e/23e and a dividend yield of 3.8%/5.9% FY22e/23e (assuming 30% payout).
• The auto business should be propelled forward by orders from EV stalwarts, BYD, Nio, Tesla, etc. We expect the auto business (30% of revenue) to grow 50% in 2023.
• Another two catalysts we look forward to are the split of the auto business to unlock value and the completion of the buyback announced by the company in 2022.

• Chinese equity vol has been high over the last few months with extreme market moves on a number of headlines but is starting to calm down
• US equity volatility continues to screen cheap despite calls for a challenging year and likely recession
• We consider 2 relative vol trades to play a narrowing of the spread

• We expect FUTU to post C4Q22 revenue and non-GAAP net income 6.4% and 16.0% above consensus, driven by the improved turnover rate in HKEX and the rising interest rate. 
• We believe the recent regulation measures has little impact on FUTU’s adjusted expectations now widely held by investors. We expect revenue growth to reaccelerate at 37%/31% YoY in 4Q22/2023.
• Maintain BUY to FUTU and raise TP by US$1 to US$51.

• Rept Battero is a lithium-ion battery manufacturer focusing on lithium-ion EV battery products and ESS battery products. The company has filed for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
• The company had recorded strong growth over all its battery segments and was the fastest growing battery manufacturer among top 10 lithium-ion battery manufacturers in China.
• However, we find the company’s inability to generate profits at gross profit level concerning.

• In C4Q22, we expect JD’s total revenue to grow 8% YoY, largely in line with cons. Non-GAAP net margin is expected to reach 2.0%, up 0.7ppt YoY.
• We estimate JD’s GMV growth in C4Q22 to be ~7% YoY, slightly slower than C3Q22 due to logistics disruption in October and November.
• Maintain BUY rating and raise TP to US$70.0 due to for acceleration in top line as well as margin improvement. Our TP implies 23x P/2023E.

• Retailers /hoteliers will welcome the return of Chinese travellers, with ~US$250bn in annual spending. That should bode well for mall operators like Swire Properties and, in turn, Swire Pacific.
• Preceding my comments on Swire are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. 
• These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

• H World Group (HTHT US) aims to raise around US$260m via a follow-on ADS offering.
• The company plans to use the proceeds mostly for investment. This will be the first deal by the company post its H-share listing in 2020.
• In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and  run the deal through our ECM framework.

• China Internet Investment Finance Holdings (810 HK) (CII), an investment manager, is currently suspended pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. 
• CII has thrice responded to unusual price action in its share price in the past four months. Shares are up a staggering ~1,000% in the past six months.
• This insight provides some background information on CII. Trading at 64x book value, this is one avoidable company. 

• Company’s second largest shareholder General Atlantic sold out entire holdings at 5.9% to 6.4% discount to Monday close. 
• The placement reflected mainly General Atlantic’s attempt to time market to recoup a 10-year investment instead of any negative read of company fundamentals, in our view.
• Recent newsflow continues pointing to steady recovery in all business lines of Xiabu group.  Its valuation discount relative to peers  has not captured strong turnaround prospects. Sector top pick. 

• China Education Group (CEG) completed the placement of HKD1.61bn on Jan 9.
• CEG used to do 2-3 M&As per year and had a decent track record.
• CEG also has chances to acquire public companies or their assets.

• In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2023, starting with Hong Kong. 
• This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.
• The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• China Jinmao Holdings
• Sunac China Holdings
• Sunny Optical

• Bilibili Inc (BILI US)  aims to raise around US$400m via a follow-on ADS offering.
• The company plans to use most of the proceeds to redeem its 2026 notes.
• In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and  run the deal through our ECM framework.

• China Education Group (839 HK) is looking to raise up to US$209m in its top-up placement. 
• This will be the fourth placement by the group since its listing in 2017, we have earlier looked at the past three placements as well.
• In this note, we will look  at the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Meilan Airport is both a strategic asset and a key beneficiary in China’s blueprint for Hainan. The hub holds an indispensable yet underappreciated position in Hainan’s DFS market.
• While jump in depreciation and plunging passenger traffic in 2022 dealt heavy blow to the company, they also pave the way for a strong turnaround as re-opening revives travel demand.
• We expect the company’s net profit to reach RMB600 million in 2023 and further double to RMB1.2 billion by 2025, driving share price to double in three years.

• News headlines on Ant Group are overwhelmingly positive these days and they try to hide the fact that the consumer finance business is worth just 1/2 of last year’s value.
• We think the main reason why markets are so optimistic these days is that they seem to think that regulatory crackdowns on the platform economy are finally over.
• With Jack Ma surrendering control of Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK) just a few days ago, could anybody say that regulatory pressure is really over?

• A state-owned company invested in Ant Group which was also founded by Jack Ma.
• We believe both the revenue growth rate and the operating margin will rise in following quarters.
• We believe the stock price still has significant upside even after the surge in past four trading days.

• 2022 marked our seventh year covering Equity Capital Markets (ECM) in Asia Pacific. 2022 was rather quiet ending with us covering one of the lowest number of IPOs and placements.
• We ended 2022 with an accuracy rate of 74.6% across 55 IPOs that we covered and 70.5% across 78 placements. 
• For those not familiar with our coverage, we aim to cover all IPOs and placements with a minimum deal size of US$100m across Asia-Pacific, including China ADRs.

• Modern Dental Group (MDG) disclosed selected unaudited operational data for 22Q1-Q3. The negative trend on performance would continue to 22Q4. The overall 2022 performance of MDG would show a negative growth.
• We may face a situation where both domestic and external demand would weaken in 2023. MDG’s overseas revenue is expected to see a bigger YoY decline than domestic revenue.
• There would be strong expectations but weak realities in 2023Q1-Q2, during which MDG’s share price could rally in short term, but it’s not based on the improvement of its fundamentals.

• Bilibili announced a follow-on equity offering of 15.34m ADS priced at $26.65 per ADS partially in exchange for convertible senior notes due 2026 (US$384.8m) and to replenish its cash reserves.
• Each ADS represents one ordinary share and new equity offering of 15.34m shares will account for approx. 3.7% of the company’s extended share capital post follow-on offering.
• Bilibili Inc (BILI US) ADS dropped 5.76% following the announcement of the follow-on offering and we believe there is limited upside.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Central China Securities
• Greentown China
• Melco Resorts & Entertainment
• Shui On Land
• Sunny Optical
• Tata Motors ADR
• Wynn Macau Ltd

• The announced restructuring of Ant Group holding companies will block founder Jack Ma from achieving majority voting on the board following the implementation of the holdcos adjustment
• The majority of board directors will be “independent” post the holdco restructuring and they are likely to drive a more social policy focused agenda, as the 2021 sustainability report suggests
• We see these developments, and especially the lack of IPO plan, to be negative for non-government aligned Ant Group shareholders, such as the international private equity groups and especially Alibaba

• A state-owned company invested in Ant Group, which boosted Alibaba’s stock price.
• Tencent obtained five new game licenses in December, three of which are imported games.
• China Literature’s daily active users increased by 80% in 2022 and reached the historical high.

• Youlife International Holdings (1759732D CH) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by Macquarie and CCB International. 
• Youlife International is a blue-collar lifetime service platform in China. It assists blue-collar talent with upskilling and lifetime career development. 
• According to CIC, Youlife ranked first among all blue-collar lifetime service platforms in China in terms of revenue generated from blue-collar lifetime services in 2021. 

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Sands China
• SJM Holdings
• Yanlord Land

• Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Deep Learning Applications are all the rage, primarily thanks to the likes of OpenAI’s ChatGPT being used for text and Dall-E being used to generate digital images.
• ChatGPT’s popularity has soared, reaching a user base of 1 million users in 5 days, and OpenAI itself is benefiting from the surge in users, now valued at $29 Billion.
• Investors are already looking for the next wave of AI products that can make a big splash and potentially disrupt legacy industries. 

• CBIRC approved the capital replenishment plan of RMB10.5bn of Ant CFC on Dec 30, 2022
• Under the regulatory guidance, Ant Group needs to complete a multifaceted rectification plan
• After the fund raising, Ant Group’s next step is to obtain FHC license and credit bureau license

• Junshi once generated sales and profits in scale, but lost money again. Its story suddenly changed from cancer drugs to COVID-19. We have lost sight of its development direction.
• Junshi’s commercialization history has lost its reference value for confirming the outlook. The calculation of peak sales doesn’t make much sense, because they cannot help Junshi turn losses into profits.
• The current market value still has too much “bubble”, and COVID-19 drug is a major “interference” to the valuation. We analyzed our thoughts on future valuation by excluding COVID-19 projects.