China

• Following the settlement of Meituan (3690 HK) shares from Tencent (700 HK)‘s in-specie dividend, nearly all the shares are now in CCASS. 
• Meituan (3690 HK) has underperformed Tencent (700 HK) by nearly 50% and Alibaba Group (9988 HK) by 27% since the announcement of the in-specie dividend.
• Short interest is higher over the last couple of months but is far lower than the selling that could come through, especially on the Prosus (PRX NA) holding.

• DPC Dash (1405 HK) raised around US$75m, after pricing its IPO at the bottom-end. 
• The company is the exclusive master franchisee for Domino’s Pizza in China, HK and Macau. DPC operated 604 stores across 17 cities, as of Feb 2023.
• In this note, we talk about the subscription levels and trading dynamics.

• Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK) noted that the pre-condition for Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH) privatisation offer at HK$1.85 per share has been satisfied (which was expected). 
• The gross spread has widened to 16.4% due to concerns that the recent solid FY22 results, lack of dividends and the skinny premium would nudge minorities to vote NO.
• It remains unclear if the dissatisfied retail minorities have enough votes to block the scheme. The downside remains low as the shares are trading 5% below the undisturbed price. 

• On 16th Nov 22, post-market close, along with its 3Q22 results Tencent declared an interim dividend by way of distribution in specie of Class B Ordinary shares of Meituan.
• At the time of declaration, the dividend amounted to US$20bn or 15.5% of Meituan’s outstanding shares.
• We have spoken about the background of the deal in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the overnight updates.

• Meituan reported C4Q22 total revenue 4% higher than cons. Non-IFRS net margin beat cons. by 0.4ppt due to strong cost control during lockdowns.  
• Meituan has limited options against Douyin’s fast expansion of new service categories and customized offerings. The competition against Douyin will continue to pressure the in-store business in the long run.
• Maintain SELL and cut TP to HK$125. Our TP implies 3x PS, 10x PE and 1x PS for on-demand delivery, in-store, and new initiatives, respectively.

• In-depth presentation of retail digitalization raises expectation of retail spin-off. Asset disposals and increased DPS potential 2H catalysts
• Limited impact from trade tensions; oil tailwind
• Following 2 years of single-digit earnings growth, growth is likely to accelerate to double digit as headwinds from strong euro/GBP and weak oil prices eases and global economy continues to rebound.

• Yuzhou Properties Company Limited (Yuzhou) is a property developer that focuses on residential housing in West Strait Economic Zone and Yangtze River Delta.
• The company has moved its headquarters to Shanghai from Xiamen.
• The company has been listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange since November 2009. As of 31 Mar 2017, market capitalization of Yuzhou stands at HKD12.4b (USD1.6b).

• Parkson Retail Group Ltd (Parkson) is a department store operator with 19 years of operating history in China.
• With an extensive network of 50 stores in 36 cities in China under the “Parkson” brand, the Group is one of the largest store operators.
• It targets the middle- and mid-upper-end of the Chinese retail market, with most of its revenues derived from concessionaire sales (90% of total revenues), while direct sales account for the rest.

• Interim results beat with strong results across most business lines
• Life insurance new business value growth reversed to positive growth in 2Q and should accelerate
• Fair value trimmed to HKD98 but headwinds abating in 2H

• At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
• Last week complemented November 2022’s  bullish LT confirmation with a bullish MT confirmation, re-instating the MT uptrend after a period of correction in Feb/Mar.
• Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) has likely entered the 2nd leg of a material MT uptrend. Q2 2023 target towards 451.95 (+25%).

• On 16th Nov 22, post-market close, along with its 3Q22 results Tencent declared an interim dividend by way of distribution in specie of Class B Ordinary shares of Meituan.
• At the time of declaration, the dividend amounted to US$20bn or 15.5% of Meituan’s outstanding shares. Its value has since declined to US$17bn
• We have covered the background of the event in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the recent updates.

• We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads – Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), 111 Inc (YI US), Genesis Minerals (GMD AU), Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Tyro Payments (TYR AU), Estia Health (EHE AU). 
• Lowest spreads – Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU), Healius (HLS AU), Golden Energy & Resources (GER SP), Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP), GK Goh Holdings (GKG SP), Nippon Steel. 

• In 4Q22, the growth rates of total revenue and most business lines are better than our expectation.
• The operating margins have stayed at a low level for the third quarter.
• We believe the stock has an upside of 45% and a price target of HK$204 for year end 2023.

• Meituan (3690 HK) reported 4Q2022 results. Revenue increased 21.4% YoY to RMB60.1bn (vs consensus RMB57.7bn) while reported operating losses dropped to RMB732m (vs consensus RMB1.4bn) from RMB5.0bn in 4Q2021.
• Covid outbreak in China in 4Q2022 led to strong growth in food delivery service revenues, however, losses have widened compared to 3Q2022 due to increased rider costs and others.
• We expect Meituan’s top line growth to slow down and margins to remain under pressure with Douyin’s entry into food delivery and the company’s expansion into Hong Kong.

• After posting a decent FY22 result, earnings momentum for CIMC Enric Holdings (3899 HK) should sustain, underpinned by clean energy recovery and chemical and environmental equipment demand.  
• 2M23 new orders growth stayed healthy at 10.7%, evidencing positive demand outlook. Hydrogen Energy is a growing driver as revenue will reach Rmb700m in FY23 and Rmb3bn in FY25.
• The stock’s PERs of 11.7x and 9.5x for FY23 and FY24, respectively, appear inexpensive in view of 19% earnings CAGR. Net cash position also adds an appeal to us.

• Chinese Apps’ time on site decreased to 26.7 hours in 2022 from 28.5 hours in 2021.
• The Press and Publication Administration approved 27 imported games in March.
• Douyin launched a medium-duration video app, which can be Bilibili’s competitor.

• China Power International (2380 HK) will enjoy another year of strong earnings improvement in FY23, as coal-fired segment returns to profit and new energy capacity drives growth.
• Solar and wind capacity will increase 66.5% and 23.1%, respectively, raising new energy’s proportion to over 70%. Profitability for hydropower also looks to recover in this year.
• There is huge room for asset injection from SPIC given the parent’s new energy capacity of 139GW, with only 20GW in CPI. Its FY23 PER of 8.4x PER is attractive. 

• Kelun-Biotech did not get widespread attention until it reached three license and collaboration agreements with Merck, with upfront and milestone payments totaling up to US$11.8 billion.
• The remaining products have limited investment value. After Kelun-Biotech out-licensed all of its valuable core assets in pipeline, it could mainly remain at the stage of biotech in the future.
• The original core R&D team members have left, which means the “root of Kelun-Biotech is broken”. The lack of sustainable follow-up R&D capability would have negative impact on valuation performance.  

• There are a bunch of implementations in the coming week, the largest being the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) March rebalance.
• There are some ad hoc changes to the KOSPI2 INDEX and KOSDAQ 150 Index following constituent stocks being designated as Administrative Issues and Investment Attention Issues.
• Inflows to the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China ETF (EMXC US) have continued and has taken AUM to a new high.

• Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
• Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
• We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

• First quarterly profit in 4Q’22 (first amongst the 3 main emerging brands) has raised expectations of full year profitability in ‘2023
• Launch of BEV will increase production, R&D, platform depreciation and marketing costs
• Despite our expection of revenues doubling y/y in ’23, profitability may not increase accordingly

• Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
• Japan and Indonesia appear to be the hubs of APAC ECM activity with Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) and PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (Harita Nickel) (2230010D IJ) going live
• On the placements front, this week was comparatively quiet, given the market volatility. There are a few lockup expiries coming up next week.

• JD Health reported 2H2022 results. 2H revenue increased 55.5% YoY to RMB26.5bn (RMB24.2bn) while fall in GPM and an increase in fulfilment costs led to operating losses during the period.
• Product revenues (JD Pharmacy) continues to account for a majority of JD Health’s revenues that generate lower GPM compared to Marketplace and other revenues.
• JD Health’s share price has moved up over the last few months but further decline in GPM  could pull the share price down suggesting it could be a Good Short.

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

1. Evergrande
2. Vedanta Resources
3. Sino-Ocean Group
4. Lippo Karawaci
5. Japfa Comfeed Indonesia

and more…

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

1. Evergrande
2. Vedanta Resources
3. Sino-Ocean Group
4. Lippo Karawaci
5. Japfa Comfeed Indonesia

and more…

• Yilli’s aggressive marketing in 2Q raised market concerns over intensifying competition
• An outright price war is unlikely as its closest competitor, Mengniu, is not willing to follow suit
• Margin remains under pressure on rising input cost
• Trimmed fair value to CNY22.5 (from CNY26.1)

• Having first introduced the three red line guidance in late 2020, the government has begun shifting its stance, and relaxing some of its regulatory oversight.
• In this note, we looked at recent news developments and how some larger developers fared against the three red lines criterion.
• Of the large developers we looked at, there are a few names which stand out which could potentially do a capital raising given their financial standing. 

• At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
• On 14 February 2023 we published a bearish recommendation in  Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology (2208 HK), targeting a 9.1% multi-week decline in Q1 2023.
• 2208 HK declined from 7.62 on 14 February to 6.94 on 10 March (19 trading days), a decline of 9.1%. 

• China Huarong Asset Management Co. Ltd. expects to post a net loss of 27.6 billion yuan ($4 billion) for 2022.
• Citing factors including volatility in the capital markets leading to declines in the value of some assets, business transition and the real estate industry slump.
• The bad-debt manager said it adjusted its business structure last year, resulting in less nonperforming asset acquisition and restructuring and less revenue.

• XPeng Inc. has predicted that revenue and vehicle deliveries will nosedive in the current quarter after the Chinese electric-vehicle (EV) upstart reported slowing sales growth and a loss that nearly doubled in 2022.
• The company’s revenue will likely plunge 43.7% to 46.3% year-on-year to between 4 billion yuan ($581 million) and 4.2 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2023.
• The outlook is based on an estimate that its deliveries will plummet 45% to 47.9% year-on-year in the same quarter to around 18,000 to 19,000 vehicles.

• China approved its first homegrown Covid-19 vaccine using the advanced mRNA technology, months after the country pivoted from its “zero-Covid” strategy toward living with the virus.
• The vaccine, developed by CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Ltd., was approved for emergency use by the National Medical Products Administration.
• The shot, known as SYS6006, primarily targets the omicron variant BA.5 and can be stored at 2 to 8 degrees Celsius (36 to 46 degrees Fahrenheit) “for a long time,”.

• Tencent reported 4Q22 top line/ bottom line of 0.3%/(3.7%) vs cons. Online ads is stronger, while gaming and G&A slightly missed our est. 
• We expect that ads will be the main driver, thanks to video accounts. Gaming will have better performance after more approved game codes.
• We raise 2023 ads growth from 12% YoY to 15% YoY. Raise TP to HK$ 433. Maintain Tencent as one of the top picks in China Internet

• If WuXi Chemistry’s performance shows downward trend, the overall performance growth won’t be satisfactory. The negative growth of WuXi DDSU means that ineffective competition for domestic innovative drugs is decreasing.
• The asset structure is shifting from light asset to heavy asset.It’s particularly crucial whether business model of “one-stop end-to-end service+royalty income” can enable WuXi AppTec to explore new growth points. 
• The current sentiment on CXO is “fragile” because CXO doesn’t have performance sustainability and stability, with “risk discount” problem. Its valuation haven’t reached inflection point. Without industry beta,alpha is useless.

• Payout ratio rise, but expected dividend yield just around 1%
• Mainland DP booked HK$2bn Impairment provision
• Considering uncertainties in Mainland DP market and the construction process slowing down, we cut FY22-23 revenue booking in DP, thus cut revenue forecasts for 3-13% and net profit for 14-20%

• More constructive outlook this year, despite near term impact on activities from current surge in Covid-19 infections as China re-opens.
• Prefer H shares listing (2628 HK) where valuations remain more attractive despite recent rebound.
• Fair value is lifted to CNY26.60.

Road King’s FY 2022 earnings were weaker than expected. The company posted a significant EBITDA decline, owing to a reduction in property deliveries amid the COVID-19 pandemic as well as a gross margin contraction. Looking ahead, we expect Road King’s FY 2023 contracted sales to remain weak, given the absence of land acquisitions in FY 2022 and the uncertain sales pipeline. This could pressure the company’s cash collections and internal cash generation. Positively, we expect Road King’s access to financing to remain sound, supported by its good quality asset base.

Overall, the company’s credit profile remains supported by its toll-road business, with cash dividends from the toll-road JVs covering 28% of FY 2022 interest expense. We expect recurring income from toll roads to increase in FY 2023, supported by the resumption of socio-economic activities in Mainland China and contribution from Road King’s newly acquired expressway in Indonesia. We believe the toll-road assets could be monetised in the event of tight liquidity, though bondholders are unlikely to have recourse to these assets in the event of debt restructuring (given the highly regulated nature of infrastructure assets).

• Our Tencent sell from 385 has formed a flat range with a bias to pressure the 331 pivot support to reach our 300-305 buy (cover) target.
• The descending wedge or channel is the dominant chart pattern that will drive the medium term trend. Global and HK bear pressure will influence Tencent near term.
• From the 300 support zone we see a better macro set up that will see the bull wedge mature and break higher once summer turbulence subsides.

• We believe both 4Q22 and 1Q23 can be weak quarters.
• However, we believe operating losses will shrink significantly in 4Q22 and 2023.
• We believe the stock has an upside of 77% for year end 2023.

• At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
• The 2018/2020 downtrend was broken in December 2022. Q1 2023 has delivered a correction and opportunity to enter the uptrend at improved entry levels.
• March has the potential to complete a bullish monthly reversal pattern upon a month end close above 44.89 and confirm a likely multi-month 12% uptrend towards 50.67. 

• Despite the topline growth of 20%, Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK) recorded a loss in FY22 after a large impairment for its holding in Kingsoft Cloud (KC US).
• Preceding my comments on Kingsoft are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
• These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

• As we expected in the preview, total revenue stopped decreasing in 4Q22.
• WeChat advertising recovered in 4Q22 earlier than we expected in the preview.
• We believe game-related revenues will grow by 8% in 2023 and 19% in 2024.

• CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK) reported 11% YoY revenue growth in 2022. The finished drug business maintained steady growth in 2022, with a continued increase in contribution from new products.
• Within the next 5 years, more than 40 innovative drugs are expected to be approved, which will provide continuous momentum for the company’s development.
• In March 2023, CSPC’s COVID-19 mRNA vaccine SYS6006 has become the first independently developed mRNA vaccine product in China that has been granted for emergency use.

• Tencent (700 HK) reported 4Q2022 results yesterday. Revenue increased 0.5% YoY to RMB145bn (vs consensus RMB)143.5bn while adjusted OP increased 30.1% YoY to RMB28.4bn (vs consensus RMB37.2bn).
• Online advertising revenues saw a 14.8% YoY increase during 4Q2022 after 4-consecutive quarters of decline with January and February showing sustained recovery.
• Though Domestic gaming revenues declined in 4Q2022, with new gaming licenses and international expansion, we expect gaming revenues to start growing from 1Q2023.

• The shareholder with a blocking stake has provided an irrevocable to accept Mr Chu Hui (Chairman and CEO)’s offer to privatise Jiangnan (1366 HK) at HK$0.40 per share
• Key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). There are no other shareholders with a blocking stake. 
• The price is final and attractive in the context of historical prices and multiples. At the last close, the gross spread is 8.1%. Scheme document likely despatched in mid-April.

• While adjusted net profit of Tongcheng Travel Holdings Ltd (780 HK) plummeted in 4Q22, the positive momentum in 1Q23 as revealed supports a sharp recovery in FY23.
• Its huge exposure to lower-tier cities will fuel outlook while increase in monetisation will support profitability rebound. Success at Blackwhale membership program is another growth engine.  
• Management is confident that revenue growth and better efficiency will lead the return of FY23 margin to pre-pandemic levels. Net cash position (12% of share price) is an added strength. 

• Tencent Music (TME US) reported 4Q2022 results yesterday. Revenue decreased 2.4% YoY to RMB7.4bn (vs consensus RMB7.3bn) while reported operating profit more than doubled to RMB1.4bn (vs consensus RMB1.3bn).
• Online music revenues grew 24% YoY while social entertainment business continues to see decline in paying users and ARPU. Margin improvements were driven by spending cuts.
• Social Entertainment is losing its importance and the segment continues to remain under pressure due to competition from other platforms.

• International Housewares Retail (1373 HK) is an interesting value/growth (5-10% CAGR) play with a high-dividend yield of >10%, trading at 8.1x FY23 PE. 
• The claim to fame for this company is the investment of legendary HK mid/small cap investor David Webb (who has a 6.9% stake in this company). 
• At a market cap of 2 bn HKD, the company has about 400 mn HKD net cash (20% of market cap), making it 6.9x ex-cash PE.

• With the impact of cost-cutting and monetisation wearing out, consensus looks overly aggressive to expect revenue and OP CAGRs of 24% and 35% respectively over the next two years.
• Based on Pinduoduo (PDD US)’s revenue and cost trends discussed below, we think the steady state OP margin could be substantially lower than consensus.
• Expecting consensus to downgrade expectations, we don’t think it is worthwhile paying up to 45.0x FY+2 OP (on our steady-state OP margin) for Pinduoduo at its current EV of $80.5bn.

• Over the past 12 months, we have written insights on 14 stocks in the small/mid-cap space with high dividend yields, inexpensive valuations, and a great margin of safety. 
• We re-examine these to shortlist 3-4 names of our highest conviction amidst the current macroeconomic climate.
• Our high conviction shortlist includes Water Oasis (1161 HK), Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK), The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM), and Taste Gourmet (8371 HK).

• Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK)’s 2022 results were below our expectations. Affected by the 22Q4 pandemic, the performance recovery in 22H2 was lower than expected. 
• The high demand due to soaring death rate since 22Q4 would be reflected in 23H1 results. Together with low base last year, strong performance rebound in 23H1 is worth expecting.
• The reason behind short-term trade and long-term hold is different. But considering the Company has no obvious flaws in its long logic, every pullback can be a good buying opportunity.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Sino-Ocean Service
• Vedanta Resources

• Growatt Technology (1833969D CH) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
• Growatt Technology is a global distributed energy solution provider, specializing in sustainable energy generation, storage and consumption, as well as energy digitalization. 
• In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance, peer comparison and shared our thoughts on valuation. In this note, we will talk about its refiling updates.

• Onewo (2602 HK) (OST) had raised around US$730m in its Hong Kong IPO in Sep 2022. Its six-month lockup is set to expire soon.
• OST is a property management service provider in China, primarily owned by China Vanke (H) (2202 HK). 
• In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

• PDD reported C4Q22 total revenue and non-GAAP net income (5.1%) and 8.4% higher than cons. Topline miss mainly comes from the deceleration of online marketplace services. 
• We expect that PDD’s domestic eCommerce will experience slowdown in growth.  Temu is likely to grow GMV rapidly with high losses from branding and subsidies.
• PDD still outpaces its peers including JD, BABA and Shein, in both domestic and oversea markets. Maintain BUY rating on PDD with TP of US$95, which implies 24x P/2023E.

• JOYY reported 4Q22 top line of US$ 605 mn, beat our est. by 3.2%, and GAAP net income turned negative mostly due to investment loss. 
• With limited catalyst for top line, increasing operating expense and content cost to cope with competition would put pressure on bottom line. 
• Maintain SELL rating and cut TP to US$ 23.7, implying 12.6X PE in 2023.

• For FY2022–Total Buyback of 5.9 million shares (HK$18.3 million) at average price of $3.10
• Funds Management Business – Extended Platform to provide Family Office Solutions
• Funds Management Unit – Total AUM increased 21% to US$975 million in 2022 with external capital accounting for 46.5%

• Macro trend remains challenging for Meituan over the summer. We see a tactical short out of triangulation and view a new low as a turn and buy signal.
• RSI bull divergence support a series of tactical rally sequences off of a new low, but macro headwinds will cap over the summer.
• Bull set up at lower expanding wedge support with wedge resistance coming in near 140. 

• We believe total revenue grew 18% in 4Q22 and 22% in 2023.
• We believe operating losses decreased YoY in 4Q22 and the company will report an operating profit in 2023.
• We expect the stock has an upside of 47% for year end 2023.

• Baidu launched a beta test of a ChatGTP-like function, WXYY.
• Tencent announced it will close its digital collection platform, Huanhe, in June.
• KE’s revenue decreased by 25% and new losses were RMB1.4 billion.

• Megvii is a leading artificial intelligence company in China focusing on IoT scenarios for mainly three fields including Consumer IoT, City IoT and Supply Chain IoT. 
• In June 2022, Megvii’s chief scientist Sun Jian passed away due to a sudden illness. His death was one of the key reasons why the company has postponed the IPO.
• Major investors in Megvii include Ant Group, Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Lenovo (992 HK), and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority.

• After a dip in earnings in FY22, Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK) guides for an encouraging rebound in FY23 with at least 35% revenue and 30-35% net profit growth.
• We think the 12.7% growth in earnings in 2H22, against -28.9% in 1H22, showed that pandemic impact has faded. It is still very well positioned to benefit from aging population. 
• Net cash equals 19% of its share price and its 13.9x PER for FY23 is not expensive relative to peers. We estimate, ex-cash, ROE is at a high of 24%. 

• In 4Q22, revenue grew by 46% YoY, lower than consensus, but higher than competitors.
• The operating margin improved significantly from 7% in 2021 to 23% in 2022.
• We believe the stock has an upside of 31% and a price target of US$120.

• Established in 2019 and headquartered in Hong Kong, Smartmore is a technology company that focuses on the use of artificial intelligence to implement smart manufacturing and ultra-high definition videos.
• The company’s intelligent manufacturing technology helps detect malfunction at manufacturing lines in numerous industries such as autos and semiconductors.
• Since the inception of the company, Smartmore has raised nearly $300 million in funding. Its major investors include Hermitage Capital, IDG Capital, Sequoia Capital China, and Lenovo Capital.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Melco Resorts & Entertainment
• Sunny Optical

• Xpeng reported soft 4Q22 results, with top line of RMB 5.14bn, missing our estimate/cons. by (5.6%)/(9.7%); GPM of 8.7%, missing our estimate/cons. by (1.6ppt)/(3.4ppt), primarily due to increased sales promotions. 
• We maintain SELL, because 1) price war and intensified competition in 2023 are still key challenges facing its existing and new models; 
• 2) margin pressure ahead amid the price war, while its cost reduction initiatives starting from 2H23 take time to verify effect.

• In early 2022, Tencent (700 HK) made clear it was on a divestment path – disposing of investments able to support themselves – possibly “obliged” after 2021’s China internet mess.
• In August, Reuters suggested Meituan (3690 HK) was next. Tencent denied it, but in November with Q3 earnings, announced a January 2023 distribution with March 2023 settlement. 
• US$16bn of Meituan shares get delivered on 24 March 2023 – this Friday. That’s a lot. But this time is different than last time.

• Upcoming banking crisis will accelerate in the coming few weeks, it is very likely Fed will slow down rate hike or re-start a rate cut cycle
• To position for this:  BUY Hong Kong property developers New World Development 17 HK, Henderson 12 HK, Sun Hung Kai Properties 16 HK
• Apart from HK RE developers, buy China’s name Hang Lung (101 HK) and crypto-currency (BTC and ETH)

• Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
• IPO activity continues to pick up momentum, although the recent market volatility will likely make a few companies reconsider their near term plans.
• On the placements front, Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) hasn’t been playing ball, as has been the case with most of the other past deals which offered a trivial discount.

• Nearly 90% through the review period, we see 6 potential adds and 5 potential deletes in June. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes at a rebalance.
• We estimate a one-way turnover of 5.07% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 3.97bn. Index arb activity could add to the impact on the stocks.
• The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes by 17% over the last month and by 21% over the last two months.

• Three quarters of the way through the review period, we forecast 10 changes for the Chinext Price Index (SZ399006 INDEX) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in June.
• Passive trackers will need to buy +/-0.5 days of ADV for most inclusions and exclusions from the indices. On average, the impact on the potential deletions is higher.
• The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last six months, and there has been a sharp widening of the gap over the last few weeks.

• Air China (H) (753 HK) underperformed China Southern (1055 HK) YTD as domestic traffic recovery is faster than international, but its momentum will accelerate in the rest of the year.
• With Jan-Feb domestic traffic returned to 92.6% of 2019, CSA’s upside is relative limited. Air China, instead, will benefit from more profound international rebound which only back by 10.3%. 
• Recent developments including resumption of visa issuance and outbound international group travels, removal of pre-flight negative PCR tests and recovery of visitors to HK all bode well for Air China.

• BEKE (Beike) reported 4Q22 revenue in-line/4.9% vs our est./cons. Non-GAAP operating income 65% higher than our estimate and non-GAAP net income 59%/122% higher than our est./cons. 
• We estimate 1Q23/2023 revenue to rise 46%/24% YoY. We think Beike’s strategy on focusing quality above scale is suitable under current real estate market trend, bode well for profitability.
• We maintain BUY rating and raise the TP by US$2 to US$23 to reflect 1) the gross margin improvement, 2)narrower loss-making in new initiatives.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Japfa Comfeed Indonesia
• Lippo Karawaci
• Times China

• Akeso achieved outstanding product sales last year, mainly due to off-label prescriptions.It means Akeso has “overdrawn” AK104’s performance on other indications in advance. Sales could significantly slow down over time.
• It is difficult to turn loss into profit by selling drugs alone. As the profits from selling drugs are far lower than R&D expenditures, losses are the norm.
• Akeso is overvalued, but if AK112 is successful in head-to-head trial with Keytruda, Akeso would be a player to compete on international stage. Its valuation would reach a new level.

• ZTO guided at least 1.5ppt market share gain in 2023, which exceeds our previous expectation. 
• ZTO, leveraging its highest market share, is the most likely to expand its own end-to-end ecosystem, which leads to improvement in operating efficiency, increase of doorstep delivery, and pricing power.
• Maintain BUY and TP due to share gain, efficiency improvement, and early-mover advantage in expanding ecosystem. Our TP implies 23x P/2023E.

• Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
• Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
• We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

• There were a bunch of rebalances on Friday across Asia resulting in big flows across multiple stocks and countries.
• The coming week is quieter with no scheduled rebalances – though the KOSDAQ 150 Index rebalance could take place dependent on Kuk Il Paper Mfg (078130 KS)‘s trading resumption. 
• Inflows to China and Taiwan ETFs while Korean ETFs had outflows. Market volatility resulted in redemptions from iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) and IShares MSCI Min Vol Emerging Markets (EEMV).

• 25% reduction on hardware cost of car production in one year would be remarkable if achieved
• Integrating two sales systems into one is a positive move, but not good enough in our view.
• Mr. He taking direct resposibility of styling design division is a sign that the company acknowledges that it is a key improvement area for estabilishing brand image