Category

China

Daily Brief China: Tencent, Meituan, Aag Energy Holdings, Zhejiang Huafeng Spandex A, Kujiale, Prudential PLC, Pico Technology, Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (H), JD.com Inc., Xiaomi Corp and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tencent Second Rejection – 305 Buy Zone
  • Meituan (3690 HK): Delivery Workers on Strike
  • AAG Energy (2686 HK): Nervousness Ahead of the 27 April Vote
  • CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes as Review Period Nearly Complete
  • Kujiale: 3D Design Platform for Home Décor
  • APAC Insurers Series (#2): AIA or Prudential?
  • PICO: Leader in Chinese XR Market
  • Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (3347HK)-Turning Point Emerge, Followed by Sharp Decline in Performance
  • JD.com Inc: Proposed Acquisition of Deppon Logistics Co & Other Drivers
  • [Xiaomi (1810 HK, SELL, TP HK$8.2) Company Update]: EV Expense Acceleration at the Starting Line

Tencent Second Rejection – 305 Buy Zone

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Tencent’s rally back to the 285 resistance saw a second rejection confirming a b-wave top and our base case call for a C wave slide to the 305 buy support.
  • Corrective structure to align with RSI low just under 30 as the buy zone. Sell volumes are on the backfoot.
  • Macro long zone remains at 305/280 to challenge the 385 bull/bear divide. Near resistance at 370.

Meituan (3690 HK): Delivery Workers on Strike

By Ming Lu

  • Meituan’s delivery workers started a strike in Shanwei City of Guangdong Province.
  • Meituan called many of its delivery workers from other cities nearby as substitutes.
  • We believe the hard job market pushes Meituan to the very font line of industrial relation.

AAG Energy (2686 HK): Nervousness Ahead of the 27 April Vote

By Arun George

  • Ahead of Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)’s vote on 27 April, the gross spread to Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH)’s HK$1.85 offer sits uncomfortably high at 13.5%. 
  • The key risk remains that minorities vote down the scheme. Retail forums are active with mixed views on the offer. Peers have also modestly re-rated, which helps the NO camp. 
  • At the last close, the risk-reward profile is unfavourable as the downside to a scheme fail (-16.0%) is greater than the upside to a scheme pass (+13.5%).  

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes as Review Period Nearly Complete

By Brian Freitas

  • With 4 trading days to go the review period, we see 13 potential index changes at the June rebalance that will be implemented at the close on 9 June.
  • We estimate a one-way turnover of 1.94% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 5.05bn.
  • With the review period nearly complete, the gap between the potential adds and deletes could narrow ahead of the announcement of the changes as pre-positions are built.

Kujiale: 3D Design Platform for Home Décor

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Founded in 2011, Kujiale (1716974D CH)  is a Chinese technology company that provides a 3D design and visualization platform for home decoration and furniture.
  • The company’s AR/VR tech platform allows users to generate design sketches to decorate and furnish their homes, as well as providing information and networking services on home design.
  • The company’s parent Manycore is the largest residential interior DDC cloud-based software provider (Kujiale is the flagship product offered by Manycore) with a market share of 56.5% in 2020.

APAC Insurers Series (#2): AIA or Prudential?

By Alec Tseung

  • Given Pru’s demerger in 2021, it now offers investors a good alternative to AIA to tap into the development and the growth potential of the life insurance sector in Pan-Asia.
  • AIA has a more balanced business across so many markets in APAC, while Pru skews toward Southeast Asia.
  • Pru’s P/BV is currently at a 30% discount to AIA’s and is trading at the same level as the year-end when China just announced the re-opening of its borders.

PICO: Leader in Chinese XR Market

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Pico Technology (1870309D CH)  is a Virtual Reality (VR) / Extended reality (XR) technology company that develops and sells VR glasses and comprehensive XR solutions.
  • The company is the market leader in the XR market in China and has a global presence. It was acquired by ByteDance in 2021.
  • PICO is a company to watch for in the VR/XR segment given it operates in a growing market and has already established itself as a prominent player in this space.

Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (3347HK)-Turning Point Emerge, Followed by Sharp Decline in Performance

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Tigermed’s revenue growth in 2021/2022 would have been pessimistic if it were not for the large COVID-19 orders, which makes us worried about the Company’s future growth in post-COVID era.
  • Profit margin could further decline due to increasing labor cost. Highly volatile financial profit would lead to more ugly profit performance. Higher domestic revenue proportion would limit future growth space.
  • The year 2022 marked a turning point in Tigermed’s performance. Its subsequent growth shows a downward trend.We think its valuation should be lower than WuXi AppTec, with more downside ahead. 

JD.com Inc: Proposed Acquisition of Deppon Logistics Co & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • JD.com had a successful year in 2022, achieving high-quality growth and surpassing 1 trillion RMB in full-year revenues for the first time.
  • Despite external challenges, the company was able to maintain high-quality operations and record the highest-ever profitability for the year.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

[Xiaomi (1810 HK, SELL, TP HK$8.2) Company Update]: EV Expense Acceleration at the Starting Line

By Shawn Yang

  • Per Tmall tracking data, in 1Q23 we expect Xiaomi’s (1) phone unit sales fell 18% YoY to 31.7mn (2) phone ASP rose 2% YoY,  (3) IoT revenue fell 10% YoY
  • We estimate 1Q23/FY23 operating profit is (16%)/(13%) vs. the street. We expect Xiaomi to spend more on OPEX to support its EV investment; 
  • We maintain SELL and HK$8.2 TP given rising costs despite lack of growth.

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Daily Brief China: Yuexiu Property, China Mobile, Aag Energy Holdings, ZJLD Group, Shangri-La Asia, HKBN Ltd, Jiangnan, Jingdong Property, Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine, Sunac China Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Yuexiu Property (123 HK) Rights Offering
  • Another Reason To Like China Mobile (941 HK)
  • Merger Arb Mondays (24 Apr) – AAG Energy, Jiangnan, HKBN, Healius, Lian Beng, Toyo
  • ZJLD Group: Limited Near-Term Post-IPO Upside, but Long-Term Prospects Indicate a Promising Future
  • Shangri-La Asia (69 HK): Not yet Fully Reflected China’s Comeback
  • Weekly Deals Digest (23 Apr) – HKBN, Jiangnan, Lian Beng, Yuexiu Property, ZJLD, Mankind, Adicon
  • Jiangnan (1366 HK): 15th May Court Meeting. IFA Says Fair
  • JD Property Pre-IPO – The Positives – Active on the Acquisition Front Leading to Growth
  • Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276.CH) 2022/23Q1 – The Situation Is Not as Optimistic as Imagined
  • Morning Views Asia: Reliance Industries, Sunac China Holdings

Yuexiu Property (123 HK) Rights Offering

By Travis Lundy

  • On Thursday morning, Yuexiu Property (123 HK) halted trading in its shares and then later in the day announced a rights offering. Shares fell hard but gained back a little.
  • The rights offering lowers BVPS by about 11.3% so the current price is “about right” for the fundamentals if the price the day before the news was right.
  • There are, however, flow dynamics which are of interest. There almost always are.

Another Reason To Like China Mobile (941 HK)

By Travis Lundy

  • In March, the HK Secretary for Financial Services announced a waiver of stamp duty on dual counter trading market making. In November, the Govt of HK gazetted a bill.
  • HKEX launched plans in December. 9 large HK names announced in March they’d apply (Tencent, Kuaishou, Geely, BOC, Anta, AIA, China Resources Beer, Bidu, HKEX). Six more in April.
  • All the announcements are similar. But one on 21 April caught my eye because it is a big H/A with strong southbound support. That’s China Mobile (941 HK)

Merger Arb Mondays (24 Apr) – AAG Energy, Jiangnan, HKBN, Healius, Lian Beng, Toyo

By Arun George


ZJLD Group: Limited Near-Term Post-IPO Upside, but Long-Term Prospects Indicate a Promising Future

By Andrei Zakharov

  • ZJLD Group, a founder-led baijiu company, backed by PE firm KKR priced its Hong Kong IPO at HK$10.82/share. ZJLD Group shares are expected to start trading on Thursday, Apr.27.
  • The company’s IPO price implies a market cap of ~$4.6B, making it the Hong Kong’s largest IPO this year. Goldman Sachs and China Securities International acted as joint sponsors. 
  • Baijiu is the world’s most consumed liquor and accounted for ~70% of the alcoholic beverage market in China in 2021. Baijiu has a history of more than 5,000 years.

Shangri-La Asia (69 HK): Not yet Fully Reflected China’s Comeback

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Despite Shangri-La Asia (69 HK)‘s good share price performance YTD, it has still not yet fully reflected the strengths of and benefits from China’s re-opening. More upside to come.
  • Occupancy for Hong Kong and mainland China has surged 30-45pp YoY in Mar, and with China’s RevPAR for FY22 is down 56.5% from peak, we see massive rebound in profitability.
  • Share of China’s EBITDA was US$258m in FY22, from US$465m in FY16-19, suggests good room for recovery. It is cheap on ~70% discount to revalued NAV, vs. 37% in FY18.

Weekly Deals Digest (23 Apr) – HKBN, Jiangnan, Lian Beng, Yuexiu Property, ZJLD, Mankind, Adicon

By Arun George


Jiangnan (1366 HK): 15th May Court Meeting. IFA Says Fair

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 21st Feb, Chu Hui, Jiangnan (1366 HK)‘s chairman and major shareholder, offered HK$0.40/share by of a Scheme, a 12.68% premium to last close.
  • However, shares gained 63% in the morning session of the 16 Feb, before being suspended, therefore the premium was an impressive 83.49% over the last full trading day’s closing price.  
  • A shareholder with a blocking stake gave his irrevocable on the 22 March. The IFA reckons terms are fair and reasonable. This is done.  The Court Meeting is May 15th.

JD Property Pre-IPO – The Positives – Active on the Acquisition Front Leading to Growth

By Clarence Chu

  • Jingdong Property (JDP HK) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • JD Property (JDP) develops and manages modern infrastructure, consisting primarily of logistics parks, as well as business parks and other assets in China and in Asia.
  • In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276.CH) 2022/23Q1 – The Situation Is Not as Optimistic as Imagined

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The contribution of innovative drugs cannot offset the generics revenue decline caused by VBP. Without PD-1 level big variety emerging, the pressure of VBP would continue for a long time. 
  • Hengrui launched Luzsana to develop global business, seeming to send “a compromise and ambiguous signal” to various complex forces within this traditional pharmaceutical empire. ADC pipeline remains to be seen.
  • Hengrui still has many problems that are difficult to solve. Even though there is a rebound, Hengrui’s stock price performance may not deliver excess returns, with lower-than-expected upside elasticity.

Morning Views Asia: Reliance Industries, Sunac China Holdings

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Jiangnan, Pharmaron Beijing Co., Ltd. (A) and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Grinding to a Halt
  • Jiangnan Group (1366 HK): Scheme Vote on 15 May
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.21) – A Brutal Reality, Benign Returns from China Biotech, Pharmaron

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Grinding to a Halt

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

Jiangnan Group (1366 HK): Scheme Vote on 15 May

By Arun George

  • The Jiangnan (1366 HK) scheme document is out with the court meeting scheduled for 15 May. The IFA considers the HK$0.40 per share offer to be fair and reasonable. 
  • Key conditions include approval by at least 75% independent shareholders (<10% rejection). The shareholder with a blocking stake has provided an irrevocable on 22 March.
  • This is a done deal. At the last close and for the 31 May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 3.9% and 44.0%, respectively.

China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.21) – A Brutal Reality, Benign Returns from China Biotech, Pharmaron

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Pharmaceutical companies shouldn’t always emphasize being the first to enter the market, but focus on how to best enter the market and maintain a dominant position as long as possible.
  • It’s truly felt that the assets of China’s pharmaceutical companies are accelerating their global recognition. As their internationalization strategy becomes increasingly mature, investors are expected to obtain more benign returns.
  • For Pharmaron, financial profit decline was the main reason for profit drop.If deducting fair value change of biological assets, operating profit growth was negative. We remain conservative about its outlook.

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Daily Brief China: Meituan, Shui On Land and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • [Meituan (3690 HK) Rating Change]: Meituan’s Counterstrike Is Effective, Upgrade to BUY
  • Weekly Wrap – 21 Apr 2023

[Meituan (3690 HK) Rating Change]: Meituan’s Counterstrike Is Effective, Upgrade to BUY

By Shawn Yang

  • We upgrade Meituan to BUY as (1) its recent subsidy campaign vs. Douyin has achieved some  successes, and (2) its food delivery margin may have further upside; 
  • We suggest that Douyin’s local service market share reaches a high level, especially when compared with its eCommerce market share; 
  • Our C1Q23 top/bottom line are in-line/25.5% vs. cons. Raise TP to HK$ 165, which implies 4x PS/12x PE/1x PS for delivery/in-store/new initiatives.

Weekly Wrap – 21 Apr 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Vedanta Resources
  2. Yankuang Energy Group
  3. Alam Sutera Realty
  4. Guangzhou R&F Properties
  5. Fosun International

and more…


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Daily Brief China: Yuexiu Property, Xiabuxiabu Catering, China Mengniu Dairy Co, Shui On Land, iQIYI Inc, Tencent, Legend Biotech Corp, iMotion Automotive Technology and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Big Yuexiu Property (123 HK) Rights Issue – 3 Capital Actions from Here to Mid-June
  • Yuexiu Property (123 HK): US$1.1bn Dilutive and Unnecessary Rights Issue
  • China Catering Sector: Long Xiabuxiabu / Short Jiumaojiu
  • HSCEI Stocks to Buy at a Material Discount – Targeted Buying Levels in 2319 HK / 2020 HK / 9888 HK
  • Morning Views Asia: Renewable Energy Group, Sands China, Shui On Land, Vedanta Resources
  • [iQIYI, Lnc. (IQ US) Target Price Change]: Reiterate SELL for Increasing Competition
  • Tencent/Netease: Zeroed in April
  • Legend Biotech (LEGN US): Shares Popped on Promising Clinical Data; Further Upside Potential Remains
  • IMotion Automotive Technology Pre-IPO – The Negatives – But Profitability Still a Black Box

Big Yuexiu Property (123 HK) Rights Issue – 3 Capital Actions from Here to Mid-June

By Travis Lundy

  • After being halted this morning before the start of trade, post-close, Yuexiu Property (123 HK) announced a fully-underwritten Rights Offering. 
  • The Rights Offering intends to raise HK$8.36bn issuing 30 Rights for every 100 Shares held, at a subscription price of HK$9.00, a 23.3% discount to TERP. 
  • This will take a moderately-levered property/services/leaseco and add more capital to it. Not terribly bullish. Looks opportunistic. And one has to look through 3 capital actions to see dividends ahead.

Yuexiu Property (123 HK): US$1.1bn Dilutive and Unnecessary Rights Issue

By Arun George

  • Yuexiu Property (123 HK) will raise US$1.1bn through a rights offering – 30 rights shares for every 100 existing shares. The subscription price is HK$9.00, a 23.3% discount to TERP.
  • As Yuexiu is in no danger of breaching the three red lines, the rights issue is an opportunistic play on capitalising on the strong share price run.
  • Rights shares will be entitled to the final and special dividend announced on 15 March. Shares go ex-rights on 2 May and the rights start trading on 15 May.

China Catering Sector: Long Xiabuxiabu / Short Jiumaojiu

By Eric Chen

  • We believe the recovery of China consumption is “not yet solid”, but not faltering.
  • China catering sector’s recovery stays on track, although Q2 has historically been a low season.
  • Long Xiabuxiabu and short Jiumaojiu to play the sector’s recovery while hedging against potential macro weakness.

HSCEI Stocks to Buy at a Material Discount – Targeted Buying Levels in 2319 HK / 2020 HK / 9888 HK

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.
  • China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd (2319 HK), ANTA Sports Products Ltd (2020 HK) and Baidu Inc (9888 HK) are all trading at significant discounts to 2023 highs and LT highs.
  • Today we highlight targeted support levels / buying opportunities in the coming 1-2 days in 2319 HK, 1-3 weeks in 2020 HK and 1-3 months in 9888 HK). 

Morning Views Asia: Renewable Energy Group, Sands China, Shui On Land, Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


[iQIYI, Lnc. (IQ US) Target Price Change]: Reiterate SELL for Increasing Competition

By Shawn Yang

  • We forecast iQIYI 1Q23 top line/bottom line to miss cons. by (3.6%)/(6.3%), largely due to the rebound of content costs to cope with competition pressure. 
  • We raise our full year ads revenue estimate slightly to reflect the better-than-expected macro recovery. Our top and bottom lines in 2023 are (3.3%)/(7.0%) vs cons, due to long-term competition. 
  • Maintain SELL but slightly raise TP to US$ 5.60, implying 18.4X PE in 2023.

Tencent/Netease: Zeroed in April

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • China just announced game approval for April batch. The number of games approved is in-line with the pace of approval in recent month.
  • Pace of China game approval stays flattish, at a much slower pace than pre-tightening.
  • Both Tencent and Netease received approval for none. Tencent is behind its peers since the approval resumed.

Legend Biotech (LEGN US): Shares Popped on Promising Clinical Data; Further Upside Potential Remains

By Tina Banerjee

  • Legend Biotech Corp (LEGN US) shares broke into a new high after a leaked abstract showed Carvykti cuts risk of progression or death by 74% in earlier multiple myeloma therapy.
  • Success of Carvykti in earlier lines of MM therapy will lead to rapid intake of the drug and increase the drug’s peak sales opportunity to $5B.
  • During 2022, Carvykti generated ~$134M in net trade sales. With label and geography expansion of Carvykti, Legend Biotech shares still have further upside potential.  

IMotion Automotive Technology Pre-IPO – The Negatives – But Profitability Still a Black Box

By Ethan Aw

  • IMotion Automotive Technology (1812706D CH) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO. 
  • The company possesses advanced full-stack R&D capabilities including self-developed algorithms and hardware-software co-design capabilities. It provides two AD domain controller product lines, and the self-designed iDC series. 
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

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Daily Brief China: HKBN Ltd, Miniso, Leapmotor, China Longyuan Power, MedSci Healthcare Holdings, Kanzhun, Central China Real Estate, iMotion Automotive Technology and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • If HKBN Gets Taken Out, Who’s Next?
  • Miniso: Investors Turning a Blind Eye to Red Flags in Miniso
  • Leapmotor: In Desperate Straits..
  • China Longyuan (916 HK): We Stay on the Bull Camp
  • Pre IPO MedSci Healthcare Holdings – Some Points Worth the Attention
  • [Kanzhun Ltd. (BZ US) Earnings Preview]: Weak Hiring Sentiments Drag Down Growth Trend
  • Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, Nickel Industries Ltd, China Datang Corp Renewable Power
  • IMotion Automotive Technology Pre-IPO – The Positives – Strong Growth Ahead with Some Big Names

If HKBN Gets Taken Out, Who’s Next?

By David Blennerhassett

  • HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) spiked 12.3% yesterday in response to media reports (like this one) that China Mobile (941 HK) was running a ruler over the company.
  • This follows Bloomberg reports last month and in May last year, that I Square’s HGC Global Communications and numerous PE outfits were kicking tyres of the Hong Kong broadband play.
  • Over the weekend, Hong Kong’s security chief was quoted as saying “the internet could become a major loophole when maintaining national security“. HKT (6823 HK) is a potential privatisation candidate. 

Miniso: Investors Turning a Blind Eye to Red Flags in Miniso

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Despite a 15% drop in March 2023, Miniso (MNSO US) remains relatively expensive compared to peers, having rallied 330% between October 2022 and March 2023.
  • We think this is a good opportunity to short MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK) as we see around 35% downside purely from a valuation angle.
  • Meanwhile, red flags like insider selling, Blue Orca’s accusations, senior management departures, and a mature domestic market could send the share price back below $5.0.

Leapmotor: In Desperate Straits..

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Several news media outlets reported that Leapmotor (9863 HK) had inflated its sales data for December 2022 based on distributor claims.
  • With China ending its new energy vehicle subsidy policy in 2022, EV makers were rushing to sell as many units as possible before embracing price hikes and face competition.
  • The company announced a price hike in January and sales volumes have declined in 1Q2023. We think the company will struggle to increase its sales volume going forward.

China Longyuan (916 HK): We Stay on the Bull Camp

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • YTD, China Longyuan Power (916 HK) has seen its share price weak, but we believe focus should not be on the poor FY22 result and the moderate 1Q23 generation growth.
  • Based on 5.5-6.5GW planned capacity expansion in FY23, this will mean a solid growth of 17.7-20.9% YoY. Coupled with efficiency improvement, we expect a sharp rebound in FY23 profit.
  • With impairment on Ukraine mostly made and reversal of exchange and trading losses, there will be a big swing in bottom line. We welcome the improvement in cash flow too.

Pre IPO MedSci Healthcare Holdings – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • MedSci’s profit quality/business structure is “healthier” than Medlive. MedSci is better able to cope with the negative impact of external changes, and its performance growth is more resilient than Medlive.
  • MedSci’s physician platform solutions business is stronger than Medlive’s medical knowledge solutions business. Considering the logic and significance of this business, MedSci is expected to have bigger growth potential.
  • If considering the cash balance, MedSci’s IPO valuation seems not that cheap. However, we think MedSci’s valuation would narrow the gap with Medlive or even surpass it in the future.

[Kanzhun Ltd. (BZ US) Earnings Preview]: Weak Hiring Sentiments Drag Down Growth Trend

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect BZ to report 1Q23 revenue and non-GAAP net income in-line with consensus. Our 2023 revenue and non-GAAP net income are (5.3%) and (37.8%) 
  • Lower than consensus, mainly due to  1) weaker growth outlook, 2) lower gross margin and 3) higher S&M cost; 
  • BZ platform’s supply side growth outpaced demand side in the spring season, indicating a weak recovery in recruiting. We maintain SELL rating and TP at US$13.5.

Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, Nickel Industries Ltd, China Datang Corp Renewable Power

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


IMotion Automotive Technology Pre-IPO – The Positives – Strong Growth Ahead with Some Big Names

By Ethan Aw

  • IMotion Automotive Technology (1812706D CH) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO. 
  • The company possesses advanced full-stack R&D capabilities including self-developed algorithms and hardware-software co-design capabilities. It provides two AD domain controller product lines, and the self-designed iDC series. 
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

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Daily Brief China: Alibaba Group, HKBN Ltd, ZJLD Group, PDD Holdings Inc, PetroChina, Anta Sports Products, Nreal.ai, NetEase Inc and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba (9988 HK): “Department One” in Reorganization
  • HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Is the Latest to Show Interest
  • ZJLD Group (6979 HK): Index Inclusion Possibility & Timelines
  • [PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD US, BUY, TP US$95) Earnings Preview]: BUY on Expected Margin Beat
  • PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK) – 5.28 Target Achieved (+13%) In 8 Trading Days
  • Anta Sports (2020 HK): Our View After Placement
  • Nreal: AR/MR Technology Player Recognised for Affordable Glasses
  • [NetEase (NTES US, BUY, US$106) TP Change]: Eggy Party Could Be Compared to Roblox

Alibaba (9988 HK): “Department One” in Reorganization

By Ming Lu

  • Alibaba broke down Taobao Tmall Center, the most important department, into three departments.
  • Industry Development Department One is actually “other businesses” after the reorganization.
  • Following Department One will help investors to understand Alibaba’s financials.

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Is the Latest to Show Interest

By Arun George

  • Reuters reported that China Mobile (600941 CH) is exploring a potential buyout of HKBN Ltd (1310 HK). The shares surged 12.3% to HK$6.57, above I Squared’s rumoured HK$6.00 offer. 
  • To get an idea of the appropriate offer price, we examine shareholding dealings from substantial shareholders. Our analysis suggests that a scheme offer of around HK$8.50 would likely be required.
  • PAG is also a rumoured bidder. The flurry of interest around HKBN suggests a good probability that one of the bidders will come through with a formal offer.

ZJLD Group (6979 HK): Index Inclusion Possibility & Timelines

By Brian Freitas

  • ZJLD Group (ZJLD HK) is looking to raise between US$775m-US$933m (including the oversubscription option) in its IPO by selling 564.3m shares at a price range of HK$10.78-HK$12.98/share.
  • ZJLD Group (ZJLD HK) will not get Fast Entry to any indices but should be added to the HSCI and Stock Connect in September.
  • Peer performance has not been great this year and that could weigh on the ZJLD Group (ZJLD HK) listing.

[PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD US, BUY, TP US$95) Earnings Preview]: BUY on Expected Margin Beat

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect PDD to report 1Q23’s revenue and non-GAAP net income 6.1% and 23.8% ahead of consensus, respectively. 
  • PDD entered an adjustment period, reflected in lower S&M expenditure both overseas and domestically, which has led to declining PDD DAU and moderating growth of Temu’s GMV and losses.
  • We raise our PDD’s 2023’s EPS estimate by 14%~ to reflect better-than-expected cost control.  We maintain PDD’s BUY rating and US$ 95 TP, implying 21x 2023 P/E.

PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK) – 5.28 Target Achieved (+13%) In 8 Trading Days

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.
  • On 31 March 2023 we published a bullish recommendation in PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK), targeting an initial 13% upswing from 4.68 to 5.28.  Longer term scope identified to 6.50/6.80.
  • Initial target at 5.28 (+13%) was achieved on 17 April 2023 (8 trading days). We continue to highlight strong evidence of LT bullish trend change targeting 6.50/6.80 (+40%) multi-quarter. 

Anta Sports (2020 HK): Our View After Placement

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The new share placement of Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) has caught the market by surprise, but we think long-term story for the company should not be affected.
  • With proceeds to be used for repayment of outstanding debts, expansion in China and pursuing SE Asia markets, we should not overlook the benefits to be generated. 
  • An IPO of Amer Sports is clearly brewing and this represents an important catalyst. Anta’s 26.4x and 20.9x FY23 and FY24 PERs do not look stretched relative to earnings growth. 

Nreal: AR/MR Technology Player Recognised for Affordable Glasses

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Founded in 2017 in Beijing, Nreal.ai (1690070D CH) is an Augmented Reality (AR)/ mixed reality (MR) technology company that develops and sells AR glasses.
  • The company’s glasses have received wide recognition as they are designed to be lightweight, comfortable and affordable, making them more accessible to consumers.
  • The company has raised more than USD240m in funding and as per the company, we could expect an IPO over the next 18-24 months.  

[NetEase (NTES US, BUY, US$106) TP Change]: Eggy Party Could Be Compared to Roblox

By Shawn Yang

  • We estimate that NetEase’s 1Q23 revenue/non-GAAP net income is 1.4%/9.4% vs cons; and 2023’s is 7.5%/12.3% vs cons. We suggest that <Eggy Party> has a lot of similarities with <Roblox>.
  • Four things the market may underestimate about NetEase: 1) the life cycle of <Eggy Party>; 2) <Eggy Party>’s overseas launch; 3)<Justice Mobile>; and 4) AIGC.
  • We raise NetEase’s TP from US$ 99 to US$ 106, and this remains to be one of our top BUY ideas in China internet.

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Daily Brief China: Anta Sports Products, ZJLD Group, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, ADICON Holdings Limited, Health And Happiness (H&H) and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Anta Sports Placement – A Large Deal to Digest with Unknown Use of Proceeds but Track Record Is Good
  • ZJLD Group IPO – Sentiment Could See a Positive Shift, Mid-Bottom End Digestible
  • ZJLD Group IPO: Valuation Insights
  • Hang Seng CEI (HSCEI) – Pending Confirmation of Bullish Breakout and Textbook 7770/80 Q2 2023 Target
  • ADICON Holdings IPO: The Bull Case
  • Morning Views Asia: Guangzhou R&F Properties

Anta Sports Placement – A Large Deal to Digest with Unknown Use of Proceeds but Track Record Is Good

By Sumeet Singh

  • Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)  aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its top-up placement. 
  • Anta hasn’t specified what it aims to do with the money that it’s looking to raise, furthermore, it’s already net cash.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

ZJLD Group IPO – Sentiment Could See a Positive Shift, Mid-Bottom End Digestible

By Clarence Chu

  • ZJLD Group (ZJLD HK) is looking to raise around US$811m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • ZJLD Group (ZJLD) is a Chinese liquor company primarily producing baijiu.
  • In this note, we will look at deal dynamics and share our thoughts on valuation.

ZJLD Group IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George


Hang Seng CEI (HSCEI) – Pending Confirmation of Bullish Breakout and Textbook 7770/80 Q2 2023 Target

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.
  • A prominent bottom below 5000 in Q4 2022 set up an impulsive multi-month uptrend and LT uptrend bias. Our 2023 target at 9450/70 reflects this major bottom.
  • 2023 has delivered a tangible downward correction. Since mid-February a Head and Shoulders Bottom has formed. A break above the neckline at 7085 targets 7770/80 in Q2 2023.

ADICON Holdings IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • ADICON Holdings Limited (ADI HK) is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$400 million, according to press reports.
  • Adicon is the third largest independent clinical laboratories (ICL) service provider in China, with an 8.6% market share of the non-COVID-19 testing market in 2021, according to Frost & Sullivan.
  • The key elements of the bull case rest on the growing non-COVID-19 testing addressable market, improving market sentiment, strong non-COVID-19 testing growth, stable EBITDA margin and cash generation. 

Morning Views Asia: Guangzhou R&F Properties

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd, Lonking Holdings, Beijing Luzhu Biotechnology, Shui On Land and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • TRACKING TRAFFIC/Lalatech IPO: Attractive Segment | ‘Unbelievable’ Cost Control | Hidden Competition
  • Lonking (3339 HK): Back to Attractive Zone
  • Pre-IPO Beijing Luzhu Biotechnology – The Eventual Revenue Scale and Profit Margins Could Be Limited
  • Morning Views Asia: Fosun International, Guangzhou R&F Properties, China Datang Corp Renewable Power

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Lalatech IPO: Attractive Segment | ‘Unbelievable’ Cost Control | Hidden Competition

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Lalatech’s largest segment by revenue — Chinese intra-city on-demand freight — features many of the attributes that are attractive to online logistics intermediaries
  • At the top of the list of red flags in its prospectus is Lalatech’s company’s dramatic 71% Y/Y reduction in Sales and Marketing expenses last year
  • Although Lalatech appears to be the leading platform for Chinese intra-city on-demand freight matching, the company faces ‘hidden’ competition from several larger groups

Lonking (3339 HK): Back to Attractive Zone

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • After a poor FY22, 1H23 will stay challenging for Lonking Holdings (3339 HK). However, we expect pick-up in business momentum going forward, and export is a major growth driver.
  • Gross margin rebounded HoH and YoY in 2H22, and Lonking maintained good operating cost control. Recovery of equity market suggests potential big positive swing in investment income. 
  • Including investment portfolio, 92% of the current market capitalisation is net cash, providing solid downside buffer. Its 6.5x PER, 9.2% yield and 0.52x P/B are very attractive valuations.

Pre-IPO Beijing Luzhu Biotechnology – The Eventual Revenue Scale and Profit Margins Could Be Limited

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Either vaccines or therapeutic biologics, Luzhu’s clinical progress has no advantages. There have been quite a few competing products on the market or candidates with faster development progress than Luzhu.
  • Luzhu applies the low price strategy to open the market. We’re not sure if it works or not, since it still depends on R&D efficiency, product quality and commercialization capabilities.
  • We tend to be conservative about the Company’s prospects because its eventual revenue scale and profit margins are likely to be very limited based on our analysis.

Morning Views Asia: Fosun International, Guangzhou R&F Properties, China Datang Corp Renewable Power

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Tencent, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Jafron Biomedical Co Ltd and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Tencent, Ecopro, Japan’s Governance, Jardines, Citizen
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Nothing to See Here!
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.14)- Surgical Robot VBP, Only 5 Biotech to Stand Out, Jafron Biomedical

Last Week in Event SPACE: Tencent, Ecopro, Japan’s Governance, Jardines, Citizen

By David Blennerhassett

  • Prosus (PRX NA) moved 96mn shares of Tencent (700 HK) into CCASS. Tencent shares fell hard. If the share price fell because of a block offering, that would be unwarranted. 
  • Ecopro (086520 KS) is up an eye-watering 590% in the past three months, primarily on Ecopro BM (247540 KS)‘s outperformance, together with sentiment towards soon-to-be-listed 52.8% held Ecopro Materials. 
  • Japan’s Finance Minister said that companies need to improve their PBRs, and that “increasing corporate value of listed companies would allow for Japan to realise sustainable growth.”

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Nothing to See Here!

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.14)- Surgical Robot VBP, Only 5 Biotech to Stand Out, Jafron Biomedical

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Anhui Province publicly solicits pre-bid data for the provincial centralized procurement of Class B large medical equipment, surgical robots included, which is worth investors’ attention.
  • No more than five biotech would truly stand out in the future. We suggest investors focus on those biotech in the first echelon, rather than betting on riskier smaller ones.
  • For Jafron, we analyzed some key points of the company. Due to the concerns, the temporary rebound in performance in 2023 is not enough to completely reverse the investment logic.

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