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China

Daily Brief China: China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Tencent, Midea Real Estate Holding , Bayzed Health Group and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Something Is Brewing, but Nobody Knows Quite What
  • Tencent/Netease: One Game Approval for Tencent in June
  • Midea Real Estate (3990 HK): Ex-In-Specie, The Rump Is Rich
  • Pre-IPO Bayzed Health Group – Here Are the Concerns and Potential Risks


China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Something Is Brewing, but Nobody Knows Quite What

By Arun George

  • On no news, China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) shares declined 12% today. We spoke to several readers to gauge the likely reasons for the fall.
  • The speculation is that the fall could be due to forced liquidation, Sinopharm’s new Chairman pulling the offer, the consortium unravelling, SAMR issues and Ping An blocking the deal. 
  • There is clearly news behind today’s fall, but none of the above rumours seem credible. The risk/reward is attractive as the upside (25% spread) outweighs the downside (18% to undisturbed).

Tencent/Netease: One Game Approval for Tencent in June

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • China announced game approval for the June batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
  • The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening, though the number of approvals appears to be slower than March.
  • Of companies that we are monitoring, Tencent and iDreamSky clinched one approval each.

Midea Real Estate (3990 HK): Ex-In-Specie, The Rump Is Rich

By David Blennerhassett

  • In an unusual move, property developer Midea Real Estate Holding (3990 HK)  announced the In-Specie distribution of its core ops, either in unlisted scrip, or HK$5.90/share in cash. 
  • As this is considered a “very substantial disposal“, a Scheme-like vote from independent shareholders is required at an EGM. And controlling shareholders – with 81.13% – are required to abstain. 
  • The EGM will be held on the 2 September, with the cash payment expected on (or before) the 18 October. The question is: what is the Rump worth?

Pre-IPO Bayzed Health Group – Here Are the Concerns and Potential Risks

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Bayzed’s business model is similar to that of Hygeia and Inkon Life Technology. However, Bayzed’s profit margin is largely lagging behind peers. This makes us concerned about its future profitability.
  • The nationwide expansion of oncology hospitals is very challenging. Bayzed’s expansion pace may not be as fast as expected if it hopes to control the quality of expansion.
  • Due to “heavy asset” model, Bayzed would continue to face capital pressure.The latest valuation of Bayzed in 2023 is RMB2.625 billion. We think Bayzed’s valuation should be lower than peers.

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Daily Brief China: Midea Real Estate Holding , Prosus NV, Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Pylon Technologies , ZJLD Group , New World Development, Xiao I , Akeso Biopharma Inc, Medco Energi and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Midea Real Estate (3990 HK): An In-Specie Distribution to Unlock Value
  • NPN X PRX FY24 Results: Initial Market Reaction Positive & JSE June Auction Analytics
  • Shanghai Henlius Biotech Privatization (2696.HK) – The Offer Price Is Disappointing
  • Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Sep 24: Two Changes; US$681mn One-Way; New Trade Ideas
  • ZJLD Group (6979 HK):  AGM Takeaway + Thoughts On The Chinese Liquor Industry
  • New World Development – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics
  • AIXI: Announces numerous real-world AI applications. The company’s financial condition remains a concern.
  • What’s Behind Akeso’s Cadonilimab Price Cut and What’s Next?
  • Morning Views Asia: Medco Energi


Midea Real Estate (3990 HK): An In-Specie Distribution to Unlock Value

By Arun George

  • On 25 June, Midea Real Estate Holding (3990 HK) disclosed an in-specie distribution of its PD&S business through a scrip or cash (HK$5.90 per share, 57.33% premium to undisturbed price).
  • The key condition will be approval of the distribution by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection).
  • Midea RE will remain listed with an asset-light retained business, which is estimated to be worth HK$1.93. The Group’s estimated value is HK$7.83, a 17.6% upside to the last close.

NPN X PRX FY24 Results: Initial Market Reaction Positive & JSE June Auction Analytics

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • Naspers and Prosus released results for FY24 yesterday morning. The initial market reaction was positive, both discounts closed narrower for the day.
  • Since the appointment of Fabricio Bloisi was announced in May, both discounts have widened.
  • JSE indices were rebalanced in the closing auction on Friday. Turnover for the day on the JSE was R58bn, R38bn traded in the closing auction (66%).

Shanghai Henlius Biotech Privatization (2696.HK) – The Offer Price Is Disappointing

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The Cancellation Price of HK$24.60 per share is about 50% lower than the IPO price of HK$49.6 per share in 2019. So, those long-term investors would suffer big losses.
  • Henlius’ share price has outperformed the index. If it remains listed, it’s able to continue to grow and provide long-term returns for shareholders. Reasonable Cancellation Price should be above HK$30/share.
  • As usual, Fosun doesn’t consider the interests of long-term investors and shareholders. There would be some investors/shareholders vote against the privatization, but the returns for arbitrageurs is not bad.

Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Sep 24: Two Changes; US$681mn One-Way; New Trade Ideas

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential ADDs and DELs for the STAR 50 index during the September 2024 index rebal event.
  • We currently see two ADDs and two DELs for the STAR 50 index resulting in one-way flows of US$681mn.

ZJLD Group (6979 HK):  AGM Takeaway + Thoughts On The Chinese Liquor Industry

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • ZJLD Group (6979 HK) held its annual general meeting last Friday (June 21). 
  • The share price is down 21% in the last 30 days, mainly due to a major sector pullback.
  • I continue to expect 20% net profit growth for the company in 2024E.  The company is trading at 13x 2024E PE which I believe is attractive. 

New World Development – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

We view New World Development (NWD) as “Medium Risk” on the LARA scale. The company is one of the leading Hong Kong-based property developers and the flagship real estate arm of the Chow Tai Fook (CTF) group. NWD has an established property-development track record in Hong Kong and Mainland China, as well as a sizeable and growing portfolio of investment properties (under the premium K11 brand) in both regions. In addition, it has a large land bank (particularly in Hong Kong), which would support its development pipeline.

Overall, we believe NWD’s credit profile is underpinned by expectation of support from the CTF group, as well as its high quality and mostly unencumbered investment property portfolio. That said, the company has high leverage and weak financial metrics.

Our fundamental Credit Bias on NWD is “Negative”. This is mainly on account of the challenging industry environment, which has pressured the company’s property development contracted sales and margins. Going forward, NWD is likely to gradually grow its rental income from investment properties, supported by contributions from newly completed assets. Positively, management has communicated a deleveraging plan, albeit this may hinge on the company’s ability to carry out further non-core asset disposals.  

Controversies are “Immaterial”. In 2021, NWD had to demolish and rebuild two out of seven blocks at The Pavilia Farm Phase 3 project, after the building contractor found construction defects during concrete strength tests. That said, the company adequately compensated affected homebuyers and commissioned an independent third party to carry out tests on the project’s Phase 1 and 2 sections. In 2008, NWD became the subject of a minor controversy after it appointed a former top civil servant (Leung Chin-man, who was Hong Kong’s Permanent Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands from 2002 to 2005) as deputy MD and ED of NWCL. The appointment was subsequently rescinded after a public outcry. Overall, the ESG Impact on Credit is “Neutral”. 

We initiate coverage on NWD with a “Hold” recommendation on the NWDEVL notes. We believe investors with a higher risk appetite can consider investing in the three NWDEVL perpetual securities that contain coupon step-ups (in the event of non-call at their respective first call dates), considering the attractive YTC. 


AIXI: Announces numerous real-world AI applications. The company’s financial condition remains a concern.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Xiao-I (NASDAQ: AIXI) is leveraging its existing relationships and signing new clients at an impressive pace.
  • The company has announced nearly a dozen new products or relationships utilizing its AI platforms in the past two months.
  • Competition remains intense in the AI market and we think investors are questioning if Xiao-I has the financial capacity to remain competitive across multiple industries as private and public companies continue to invest heavily in its core markets.

What’s Behind Akeso’s Cadonilimab Price Cut and What’s Next?

By Eric Wen

  • Cadonilimab (AK104)(PD-1/CTLA-4) achieved 7.1% market share in China’s PD-1(L1) market in 2023, up from 3.4% in 2022, ranking it No.4 in revenue market share after Tislelezumab, Keytruda and Sintilimab;
  • With six days to go, the chance to receives NMPA approval for Gastric Cancer is slim, which means the June 18 price cut is for the existing Cervical Cancer indication;
  • The big question is the price elasticity following Cadonilimab’s inclusion to NDRL. With ~110K new patients each year and only ~2,100 receiving Cadonilimab, we expect a moderate price cut.

Morning Views Asia: Medco Energi

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Midea Real Estate Holding , TBEA Co Ltd A, Gambol Pet Group , China Gas Holdings, China Oilfield Services H, Dong E E Jiaoco Ltd A and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Henlius (2696 HK): Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 Offer at Around Half the IPO Price
  • Midea Real Estate (3990 HK):  Divesting Property Development Business (Cash Option At 57% Premium)
  • Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 24: Some Expected DELs Could Underperform Peers
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Dec 24: Expected ADDs Could Outperform Expected DELs
  • Henlius Biotech (2696 HK): Fosun Pharma’s “Fair” Offer
  • China Gas Holdings (384 HK): Still Warrants a Look
  • China Oilfield Services 2883.HK – Capitalising on the Boom in Offshore Exploration
  • Dong E E Jiao (000423.CH) – Big Dividends and Potential Leap in Valuation Are Highly Anticipated


Henlius (2696 HK): Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 Offer at Around Half the IPO Price

By Arun George

  • Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation offer by Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK) at HK$24.60, a 36.7% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer price is final. 
  • The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (<10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). There is no minimum acceptance condition. 
  • Long term investors will be unimpressed as the offer is half the HK$49.60 IPO price. However, shareholders with blocking stakes should be supportive partly because of the share alternative option.

Midea Real Estate (3990 HK):  Divesting Property Development Business (Cash Option At 57% Premium)

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Midea Real Estate Holding (3990 HK) announced last night a proposal for distribution in specie of the property development business to shareholders.
  • The proposal allows shareholders to select between receiving pro rata shares in the PrivateCo, or the cash alternative at HKD5.90 per share, a 57% premium to last close at HKD3.75. 
  • I believe this is a good deal for minority shareholders.  The company (ex. property development business) will continue to be listed on the HKSE after the distribution. 

Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 24: Some Expected DELs Could Underperform Peers

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • SSE 50 and SSE 180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the December 2024 index rebal event.
  • We currently estimate one-way flows to be US$1.4bn and US$235mn for the SSE 50 and 180, respectively.

Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Dec 24: Expected ADDs Could Outperform Expected DELs

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The ChiNext Index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
  • The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
  • We see seven change for the ChiNext index and five changes for the ChiNext 50 index.

Henlius Biotech (2696 HK): Fosun Pharma’s “Fair” Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196 HK) has made a HK$24.60/share Offer (best & final), in cash, for H-shares not held in Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK). A scrip alternative may be afforded. 
  • As Henlius is PRC-incorporated, this Offer is structured as a Merger by Absorption, involving a Scheme-like vote for independent H-shareholders. There is no tendering condition.
  • Pre-Conditions include NDRC, MoC, and SAFE. The Long Stop date to secure these conditions is 30th April 2025. That’s way too conservative. This should be wrapped up around mid 4Q24.

China Gas Holdings (384 HK): Still Warrants a Look

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China Gas Holdings (384 HK)‘s FY24 result is distorted by non-recurring items and provisions. Adjusted net profit, however, has declined by only 4.3%, and is only 2.6% below consensus. 
  • FY25 guidance looks positive as a 6% increase in dollar margin and a 5% increase in gas volume are expected. The Apr-May operating figures support such projections.
  • China Gas maintained its DPS despite a drop in reported profit, showcasing its confidence. Assuming the same dividend in FY25 and FY26, it will sit on a yield of 7%. 

China Oilfield Services 2883.HK – Capitalising on the Boom in Offshore Exploration

By Rikki Malik

  • The largest player in Asia in the offshore oil services sector with limited competition
  • Business dynamics trending up as offshore exploration is the focus of many energy majors
  • Recent sell-off due to concerns over Aramco drilling delays provide a good entry point

Dong E E Jiao (000423.CH) – Big Dividends and Potential Leap in Valuation Are Highly Anticipated

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Dong-E-E-Jiao’s performance is exciting. The first-ever equity incentive plan fully demonstrates the new management team’s confidence in the future development of the Company. There’s potential for another leap in valuation.
  • Our 2024 forecast is net profit to reach RMB1.4 billion, up 20% YoY. Reasonable valuation is 25-30x P/E.If market value falls below RMB35 billion, this is a great buying opportunity.
  • Dong-E-E-Jiao is worth long-term holding due to attractive dividend policy. China Resources may further improve dividend payout, which is in line with the major trend for SOE to increase dividends.

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Daily Brief China: MMG, Swire Properties, Cathay Pacific Airways, YSB, Guangzhou Automobile Group, Acotec Scientific Holdings, Greentown China and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • MMG (1208 HK): Rights Trade Playbook
  • Swire Properties (1972 HK): Potential Passive Selling & Trade Ideas
  • Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Multiple Positive Developments
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Jun23)-Retail Pharmacy’s Dilemma, Logic to Biotech’s Stock Price,YSB’s Risk
  • China Consumption Weekly (24 Jun 2024): Kuaishou, Bilibili, NetEase, GAC, Honda Motor, Chow Tai Fook
  • Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669.HK) – The Company Is Now In Trouble
  • Morning Views Asia: Greentown China


MMG (1208 HK): Rights Trade Playbook

By Arun George

  • On 4 June, MMG (1208 HK) announced plans to raise HK$9.1bn (US$1.2bn) through 2 rights shares for every five existing shares rights offering, with a rights price of HK$2.62.
  • Since the rights issue announcement, MMG shares have declined by 16.2% to the undisturbed price and by 8.0% compared to the TERP of HK$3.48 per share. 
  • MMG’s trading pattern has diverged from Link REIT/Yuexiu’s rights trading due to the statement on 18 May that the Peruvian mine is not liable for a 30% withholding tax.

Swire Properties (1972 HK): Potential Passive Selling & Trade Ideas

By Brian Freitas


Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Multiple Positive Developments

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • With more foreign countries being granted visa-free visits to China, Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) will benefit from more transfer traffic via Hong Kong.
  • Recovery is decent with passenger traffic rising 37.5% in 5M24. CX’s capacity already returned to 80% of pre-pandemic in 2Q24, and this will reach 100% in 1Q25. 
  • YTD, CX is still a laggard relative to many global airlines. Its P/B valuation is not stretched at 0.8x, given ROE of 11% over the next 3 years.  

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun23)-Retail Pharmacy’s Dilemma, Logic to Biotech’s Stock Price,YSB’s Risk

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Retail pharmacies experienced performance decline in April and May. Due to negative policies, retail pharmacies will experience industry clearance. Therefore, we do not recommend investors to bottom-fish related stocks now.
  • There is a logic to biotech’s performance from 2023 to present.The clearer the path of sustainable development, the better the stock price performance. They can be divided into three types.
  • YSB faces big risks and the outlook is not optimistic. If the final valuation of the Company is lower than China Resources Pharmaceutical and Shanghai Pharmaceuticals, we wouldn’t be too surprised.

China Consumption Weekly (24 Jun 2024): Kuaishou, Bilibili, NetEase, GAC, Honda Motor, Chow Tai Fook

By Ming Lu

  • Kuaishou and Bilibili’s GMV surged YoY during “June 18” sales.
  • World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King, will formally start on June 27.
  • GAC Honda Automobile Ltd planned to dismiss 1700 employees, about 14% of total.

Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669.HK) – The Company Is Now In Trouble

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Acotec’s 2023 performance was unsatisfactory. Core products suffered weak growth. Positive trend of continuing to optimize revenue structure was broken. Sales of latecomers’ competing products would expand rapidly in 2024/2025. 
  • Revenue proportion in overseas markets was still below 5% in 2023. If no highlights in Acotec’s cooperation with Boston Scientific in 2024, this collaboration could be considered a failure.
  • Due to VBP, margin could further decline. If it’s just the current situation, then Acotec is not as good as Zylox-Tonbridge. So, its valuation should also be lower than Zylox-Tonbridge.

Morning Views Asia: Greentown China

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: L’Occitane, Luxshare Precision Industry, Trip.com and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Deals Digest (23 Jun) – L’Occitane, Exedy, Infocom, Mimasu, Tatsuta, MMA Offshore, Webtoon
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 21 June 2024): BIG Consumer Name Selling Again
  • Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Recovery Expands | Domestic Solid Too | (June 2024)


Weekly Deals Digest (23 Jun) – L’Occitane, Exedy, Infocom, Mimasu, Tatsuta, MMA Offshore, Webtoon

By Arun George


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 21 June 2024): BIG Consumer Name Selling Again

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 16.1bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND bought tech and sold everything else, especially consumer names. Kweichow Moutai, Midea, appliances and renewables.
  • Ongoing questions as to whether the NORTHBOUND volumes to the buy side are all foreigners. Some suspect there is national team buying mixed in, as was expected from earlier announcements.

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Recovery Expands | Domestic Solid Too | (June 2024)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Growth of outbound Chinese travel demand strong in May as HK, Macau slow
  • Domestic travel demand also showed solid growth in May and early June
  • Trip.com appears reasonably cheap now that it’s dipped below US$50, BUY

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Daily Brief China: China Merchants China Direct Investments, Tianju Dihe Technology, Foxconn Industrial Internet and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • CMCDI (133 HK): Kan Re-Elected. But Only Just
  • Tianju Dihe Technology IPO: Limited Room For Multiple Expansion Despite Healthy Growth
  • Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact


CMCDI (133 HK): Kan Re-Elected. But Only Just

By David Blennerhassett

  • At the AGM yesterday, China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)‘s director Elizabeth Kan was re-appointed, but by a wafer-thin margin: 29.97% of shares out FOR, and 29.44% AGAINST.
  • Stripping out Victor Chu’s stake (~2%?) and China Merchant’s (27.6%), or collectively ~29.6% of shares out, it’s fair to say the remainder of the shareholder register wants her out. 
  • CMCDI is currently trading at a 55% discount to the latest NAV (as at 31st May 2024) of HK$30.42/share.  Argyle continues to add to its position. 

Tianju Dihe Technology IPO: Limited Room For Multiple Expansion Despite Healthy Growth

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Tianju Dihe Technology, a provider of integrated API-enabled data exchange services in China, set terms for an IPO and plans to raise ~HK$400M in June.
  • The initial public offering is expected to be priced at HK$83.33 per H share, valuing the technology company at ~HK$4.2B or $535M based on 50.1M outstanding shares.  
  • Cornerstone investors have agreed to acquire ~3.8M H shares, representing 80% of the offer shares or ~8% of the total outstanding shares.

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

By Joe Jasper

  • Not much has changed since our latest Int’l Compass from May 31, 2024 titled “Buy the Pullback.” 
  • We were buyers of the pullback in global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) with important supports holding, combined with ongoing healthy market dynamics.
  • Supports are holding, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to buy dips.

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Daily Brief China: Taste Gourmet, SenseTime Group , PC Partner, Hengdeli Holdings, Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, Sa Sa International Hldgs, China Merchants China Direct Investments, Road King Infrastructure and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Taste Gourmet (8371 HK): Strong FY24, 6.7x PE, Cash ~23% of Mkt Cap and >8% Dividend Yield
  • Sensetime Placement – Seems Highly Opportunistic
  • PC Partners (1263 HK) Muses SGX Listing & HKEx Withdrawal
  • Hengdeli Holdings (3389 HK)’s Pitiful Partial Offer
  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec 24:  A Long-Short Basket Trade Idea with High Momentum
  • Sa Sa Intl (178 HK): Every Coin Has Two Sides
  • CMCDI Update: Warning Shot Fired At AGM Despite Kan’s Successful Re-Election
  • Morning Views Asia: Road King Infrastructure


Taste Gourmet (8371 HK): Strong FY24, 6.7x PE, Cash ~23% of Mkt Cap and >8% Dividend Yield

By Sameer Taneja

  • Taste Gourmet (8371 HK) reported revenues up 37% YoY and profits up 29% YoY (lower than our expectation of 39% profit growth) due to a slightly weaker-than-expected Q4.
  • Dividends for H2 were 7.4 cents/share (overall FY24:12.9 cents), implying an 8.1% dividend yield. Net cash on the balance sheet was 143 mn HKD (23% of market cap).
  • Trading at 6.7x PE FY24 (March end) and with an excellent execution track record, we believe that the company will be able to post more robust numbers in FY25. 

Sensetime Placement – Seems Highly Opportunistic

By Sumeet Singh

  • SenseTime Group (20 HK)  aims to raise up to US$263m via selling around 4.5% stake.
  • Sensetime hasn’t had the best of times since listing, however, the shares have rebounded recently on generative AI buzz around the stock.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

PC Partners (1263 HK) Muses SGX Listing & HKEx Withdrawal

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 18th June, personal computer (PC) parts and accessories play PC Partner (1263 HK) announced a profit alert for 1H24. 
  • That’s positive. What is also interesting is that the board is considering an SGX listing, by way of introduction, and applying for the withdrawal of the HKEx listing.
  • Precedents are thin on the ground. And for good reason. The process is not straightforward.

Hengdeli Holdings (3389 HK)’s Pitiful Partial Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • After watch accessory play Hengdeli Holdings (3389 HK) was suspended on the 17th June pursuant to the Takeovers Code, I didn’t hold out high hopes of a knock-out Offer.
  • And on cue, CEO Tony Cheung (16%), son of founder Zhang Yuping (holding 17%), has made a Partial Offer (for 15% of shares outstanding) at HK$0.16/share, towards gaining majority control.
  • That’s a 18.5% premium to last close … and a 80% discount to NAV, and a 47% discount to Hengdeli’s net cash as at 31 December 2023.

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec 24:  A Long-Short Basket Trade Idea with High Momentum

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2024.
  • Currently, we see 16 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.

Sa Sa Intl (178 HK): Every Coin Has Two Sides

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Despite missing market consensus, Sa Sa International Hldgs (178 HK)‘s FY24 result still have silver linings. Its resumption of dividends with a 70% payout ratio is welcoming.
  • Tax credit in 2H23 has distorted comparison. At pre-tax level, 2H24 profit has gone up by 29.5%. Cost management is solid, generating a 0.9pp FY24 operating margin expansion. 
  • While overall 1Q25 sales have dropped, mainland China sales surged 83.9%. The macro environment should have bottomed and government efforts to attract tourists will pay off.  

CMCDI Update: Warning Shot Fired At AGM Despite Kan’s Successful Re-Election

By Alec Tseung

  • While Elizabeth Kan barely survived the AGM vote, ASM has effectively mobilized minority shareholders.
  • Lazard (owns 15% of CMCDI) probably voted alongside ASM (owns 9%). Other than China Merchants Group and Victor Chu, almost no “outside shareholders” voted in favor of Kan, .
  • The next battleground is a vote in November when CMCDI needs to renew its investment management agreement. Intense behind-the-scene negotiations are expected, given the bargaining power ASM now demonstrated.

Morning Views Asia: Road King Infrastructure

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H), West China Cement, Black Sesame Technologies, Bloks Group, Soft International Group and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Recent Sell-Off in Tanker Stocks Provides an Opportunity in Cosco Shipping Energy – 1138.HK
  • West China Cement (2233 HK):  African Cement Play At 4x 2024E PE
  • Black Sesame Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Unable to Shake off Its Loss-Making Tendencies
  • Bloks Group IPO: Exceptional Revenue Hyper-Growth and Profitability Are Unique Among Toy Makers
  • Pre-IPO Soft International Group – Whether Performance Growth Can Be Sustained Is a Question Mark


Recent Sell-Off in Tanker Stocks Provides an Opportunity in Cosco Shipping Energy – 1138.HK

By Rikki Malik

  • All the business fundamentals continue to trend in the right direction
  • The sector has sold off with the general commodity sell-off
  • Investors not giving the benefit of the doubt to future oil demand

West China Cement (2233 HK):  African Cement Play At 4x 2024E PE

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • West China Cement (2233 HK) is a cement company based in Western China.  Sales volume in Africa in 2023 was 2.6 million tons, up 117% from 1.2 million tons in 2022. 
  • The company has 2 million tons of cement capacity in Mozambique, 1.5 million tons in Congo, and 1.3 million tons in Ethiopia. 
  • The company is trading at 4x 2024E PE.  I believe the risk reward is quite high here. 

Black Sesame Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Unable to Shake off Its Loss-Making Tendencies

By Clarence Chu

  • Black Sesame Technologies (BLACKSES HK) is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Black Sesame International Holdings (BSIH) is an automotive-grade computing SoC and SoC-based intelligent vehicle solution provider.
  • In our previous note we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we discuss Black Sesame’s PHIP updates.

Bloks Group IPO: Exceptional Revenue Hyper-Growth and Profitability Are Unique Among Toy Makers

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Bloks Group, a fast-growing toy company and leader of assembly character toys, filed for a Hong Kong IPO. The company is headquartered in Shanghai, PRC, and has 410 full-time employees.
  • Bloks Group has raised $200M+ to date from investors, including YF Capital, Legend Capital, Source Code Capital, Gaorong Capital and SinoMedia Asia Pacific.
  • The Chinese toy maker has delivered an exceptional revenue hyper-growth of 169% y/y in 2023. Elite operating metrics and impressive financial profile make IPO attractive for investors.

Pre-IPO Soft International Group – Whether Performance Growth Can Be Sustained Is a Question Mark

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The top two biggest markets of Soft International (China and Russia) are encountering the challenge of slowing growth or even growth stagnation due to decreasing birth rate and increasing competition.
  • Single-Digit net profit margin is not satisfactory for a company with strong consumption attributes. This makes us wonder if the personal hygienic disposables is not a money-making business. 
  • Overreliance on Russian Top-tier Retailer would bring risks to the business.Both revenue growth and profitability could decrease sharply if adverse situations occur. Soft International’s valuation could be lower than peers.

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Daily Brief China: L’Occitane, COFCO Joycome Foods, Hutchmed China Ltd, ENN Energy and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • L’Occitane (973 HK): No, PLP Is Not Getting A Back-End Bump
  • COFCO Joycome (1610 HK): Brewing a Hog Cycle Upturn?
  • Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/​​HCM.US) – Time to Reassess Valuation Prospects Despite the Pain Points
  • Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, ENN Energy, ENN Natural Gas, MGM China Holdings


L’Occitane (973 HK): No, PLP Is Not Getting A Back-End Bump

By David Blennerhassett

  • In a long-awaited development, L’Occitane (973 HK)  announced during the lunchbreak yesterday, a scrip alternative. Plus Pleasant Lake Partners (PLP) (3.25%) will accept the Offer (either in cash or scrip). 
  • This was positive news. And the market reacted accordingly, up ~1.0% in the afternoon session.
  • One quirk in the doc was the perception those electing the scrip alternative may get a higher % in the unlisted Offeror. A back-end bump for PLP? (Hint: No).

COFCO Joycome (1610 HK): Brewing a Hog Cycle Upturn?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Cofco Joycome (1610 HK) is in a good position to benefit from the hog cycle upturn. China’s anti-dumping investigation into imported pork from the EU may also disrupt supply.
  • Its average hog price has increased by 12.7% YTD and by 1.6% YoY for 5M24. Market hog price further surged by 10.4% in the week of 12-Jun from end-May.
  • Its P/B of 0.78x is inexpensive at 1SD below the 5-year average. Its peers like Muyuan Foodstuff (002714 CH) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498 CH) are also interesting. 

Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/​​HCM.US) – Time to Reassess Valuation Prospects Despite the Pain Points

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Takeda’s sales team is fully prepared for the launch of fruquintinib in EU. 2024 full-year overseas sales may once again beat the expectations. High growth is expected from 2024 to 2026.
  • Peak sales of fruquintinib + savolitinib + surufatinib that recorded in HUTCHMED’s revenue is expected to be over US$750 million.Without considering other revenue, market value would reach about US$4.5 billion.
  • HUTCHMED’s pipeline lacks blockbuster products and the indications are small. With the rise of PROTAC, small molecule drugs would face challenges, which would test the management’s resilience in the future.

Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, ENN Energy, ENN Natural Gas, MGM China Holdings

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: L’Occitane, Hengdeli Holdings, XPeng , New Oriental Education & Techn, Lufax Holding , Taste Gourmet, Iron Ore and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • L’Occitane (973 HK): Share Alternative a Crucial Step Towards the Offer Being Declared Unconditional
  • Hengdeli Holdings (3389 HK): Negative EV Play Halted
  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep 24: No Changes but US$425mn One-Way Flows Due to Capping
  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Two Changes Possible; US$256mn One-Way
  • L’Occitane (973.HK) – The Privatization Is About to Succeed
  • Closing Lufax
  • Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – June 2024
  • Persistent Weakness in Chinese Real Estate Will Drag Iron Ore Prices Down


L’Occitane (973 HK): Share Alternative a Crucial Step Towards the Offer Being Declared Unconditional

By Arun George

  • L’Occitane (973 HK) announced the share alternative at an exchange ratio of 10 rollover shares for each offer share, subject to a cap of 5% of outstanding shares.
  • The share alternative option will help the offer and was likely required to get Pleasant Lake Partners’ support (3.25% of outstanding shares). There is minimal vocal opposition to the offer. 
  • Irrevocables/Letters of support represent 49.83% of disinterested shares. An attractive offer and the share alternative facilitate meeting the minimum acceptance condition, which requires an 80% disinterested acceptance rate (ex. irrevocables).

Hengdeli Holdings (3389 HK): Negative EV Play Halted

By David Blennerhassett

  • Watch accessory play Hengdeli Holdings (3389 HK) is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
  • Potentially founder Zhang Yuping (holding 17%), CEO Tony Cheung (16%) and/or Swatch Group (UHR SW) (9.94%) may table an Offer. My money is on Zhang.
  • This is a very illiquid name. What is interesting is that Hengdeli has net cash of HK$1.3bn – as at 31 December 2023 – against a market cap of HK$0.59bn.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep 24: No Changes but US$425mn One-Way Flows Due to Capping

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the rankings of potential ADDs and potential DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event.
  • We do not see any index changes in September 2024 but there could be one-way flows of US$425mn due to capping.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Two Changes Possible; US$256mn One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in September 2024.
  • Based on the current data, I see two ADDs and two DELs.

L’Occitane (973.HK) – The Privatization Is About to Succeed

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • So far, about 49.8% of disinterested shares from Irrevocable Undertakings/Non-binding Letters of Support would accept the Share Offer. Success is within reach based on a “good enough” privatization price. 
  • The Share Alternative is mainly aimed at investors who are hoping for the future re-listing of L’Occitane in the overseas markets – They can still get a vantage point.
  • However, re-listing seems still distant/uncertain. The value of Rollover Shares in the future remains uncertain. Investors would face risks if they choose the Share Alternative. The Cash Alternative is preferred.

Closing Lufax

By Turtles all the way down

  • It has come to my attention that Lufax management has recently altered the terms of their convertible debt: Based on the terms and conditions of the Ping An Convertible Promissory Notes, as a result of the Special Dividend, the Conversion Price will be adjusted from US$12.
  • Based on the terms and conditions of the Ping An Convertible Promissory Notes, as a result of the Special Dividend, the Conversion Price will be adjusted from US$12.76 per Share as at the date of this circular to US$2.32 per Share upon settlement of the Special Dividend, and thus, upon full conversion, the Ping An Convertible Promissory Notes can be converted into a maximum number of 421,077,586 Shares (the “Conversion Shares”).
  • The Company considers that the adjustment formula is in line with market practice for anti-dilution provisions in convertible securities.

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – June 2024

By Sameer Taneja


Persistent Weakness in Chinese Real Estate Will Drag Iron Ore Prices Down

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

  • Chinese real estate investments fell 10.1% in the first five months of 2024 YoY. New home prices fell at the fastest pace in more than 9.5 years in May.
  • Fresh bank lending in China rebounded well expectations in May. Chinese banks issued 950B yuan (v/s 1.36T yuan issued last May) in new loans last month.
  • China’s consumer inflation held flat in May amid feeble domestic demand, uneven economic recovery, and consumer confidence weakness.

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