China

• CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by marketcap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500. There is subjectivity.
• Here we look at potential ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300/500 rebalance in June 2024. With 93% of time passed, I expect 11 changes for CSI300, 50 for CSI 500. 
• Some names have changed since my last insight, but the long/short trades recommended eight weeks ago gained 11.26% since. We make small changes this time.

• SSE 50 and SSE 180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
• In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential index changes for SSE 50 and SSE 180 during the June 2024 index rebal event.
• According to my estimates, the SSE 50 expected ADDs and DELs could see US$1.7bn index buying and US$828mn index selling respectively (leaving nearly $900mm of funding sales to do).

• Since “no dividend was proposed for the year ended 31 December 2023”, the privatization is highly likely to succeed. It may not be wise for investors to bet against privatization.
• The recent high-level personnel changes in Taiji is “thought-provoking”, which seems to be preparing for the next step of integrating with China TCM. Spin-offs and integrations are expected within Taiji.
• We analyzed possible playbook. In this way, CNPGC is able to solve the problem of horizontal competition. China TCM could also relist in A-share to gain higher valuations/better liquidity.

• Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK) had 15.4% interest-bearing debt denominated in USD, vs. 21.3% for China Southern Airlines (1055 HK), making it less exposed to Rmb depreciation. 
• Recovery of international traffic and routes will help to lower unit costs. Air China’s unit costs for FY23 were Rmb4.0445, whereas CSA’s were only Rmb3.2000.
• There is more upside for Air China’s load factor which was down 7.8pp YoY in FY23, compared with -4.7pp for CSA. 

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Tata Motors ADR
• Xiaomi Corp

• TAL Education Group (TAL) reported net revenues of USD 373.5 million for its third quarter fiscal year 2024, exhibiting an increase of 60.5% and 63.7% in U.S. dollar and RMB terms.
• Despite the impressive revenue growth, profitability remained a concern with non-GAAP loss from operations and non-GAAP net loss attributable to TAL amounting to USD 10.2 million and USD 1.9 million, respectively.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Pakuwon Jati
• Sunny Optical Technology Group

• Kayou is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming HK IPO.
• Kayou is a Chinese pan-entertainment product retailer of toys, with trading cards in particular as its core product.
• In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

• The review period for the June rebalance ends 30 April. We expect the changes to be announced 31 May with the implementation taking place after the close on 14 June.
• We forecast 10 changes for the index, including migrations between the STAR 100 Index and the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX). 
• Excluding the migrations, the potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last few months and that could continue as we head to the end of the review period.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Greentown China

• Kayou is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming HK IPO.
• Kayou is a Chinese pan-entertainment product retailer of toys, with trading cards in particular as its core product.
• In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

• BenQ BM Holding Cayman Corp (2228515D KY) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are CICC and Citigroup.
• BenQ BM Holding Cayman Corp (BenQ BM) is a general hospital operator.
• As of Dec 2023, BenQ BM owned and operated two hospitals, with a total combined GFA of approximately 380,000 sqm and 1,850 registered beds.

• J&T Global Express (1519 HK)’s 180-day IPO lock-up period for 88% of outstanding shares expires on 24 April. The shares exiting the lock-up period are worth US$9.9 billion.
• The likely sellers will be the Series pre-A1, pre-A2, A and B investors as are they are materially in the money at the last close price.
• J&T has returned to organic growth with a shift to profits and declining cash burn. While the last close is 17% below the IPO price, the shares are fairly valued. 

• SenseTime Group (20 HK) is a potential deletion in June while Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK) is a potential inclusion.
• For yet another review, BeiGene (6160 HK) is a close add with the Velocity Test determining if the stock will be added to the index or not.
• Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 2.95% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$1.6bn. Official capping will be based off the close of trading on 4 June.

• The biggest changes in 2023 medical insurance catalog are the lifting of payment restrictions on TCM injections, which would drive rapid sales growth in the hospital market this year.
• GLP-1s are not flawless, and patients will lose not only fat but also muscle during weight-loss process. Then, another noteworthy opportunity has emerged – reduce fat and increase muscle.
• In 2024, Sino Biopharm is expected to achieve single-digit revenue growth. Deficiencies in corporate governance are one reason why the market is reluctant to offer Sino Biopharm high valuation.

• The review period for the June rebalance ends 30 April. We expect the changes to be announced 31 May with the implementation taking place after the close on 14 June.
• We expect the index committee to continue using a 6-month minimum listing history resulting in three changes to the index.
• With a big jump in tracking AUM over the last few months, passives will need to trade a lot of stock on implementation date.

• We compile our selection of small and mid-cap names with our desired characteristics of high dividend yields, value, and margin of safety.
• Our top picks are Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK), Water Oasis (1161 HK), Taste Gourmet (8371 HK), Uchi Technologies (UCHI MK), and Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM).
• We recently added Dream International (1126 HK). Read: Dream International (1126 HK): Dream Valuation of 3.7x PE and 12% Div Yield, >40% of Mkt Cap In Cash 

• Fu Shou Yuan’s 2023 performance was indeed not good, with negative growth in 23H2.Shanghai alone has limited market capacity.No matter how strong it is, it cannot drive the national market.
• Fu Shou Yuan has encountered difficulties in external expansion and M&A, so it chooses to increase dividends. However, this means the Company may have to say goodbye to high growth.
• The founder’s “past bad record” and uncertain business outlook hinder the upward potential of valuation, which requires a high margin of safety.It’s better bought at low price to collect dividends.

• Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
• On the IPO front, the focus remained on HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS) and Bharti Hexacom (6597372Z IN).
• On the placement front, India remained at the forefront with JSW Energy Ltd (JSW IN) and the potential share sale of Vodafone Idea (IDEA IN). 

• China Power International (2380 HK)‘s earnings should accelerate in FY24, and rebound in hydropower is a key driver. Hydropower generation surged 84.3% YoY in 2M24.
• The 9.3GW of capacity acquired in Oct will provide first full-year contribution in FY24. Better economics for coal-fired plants will add to profit momentum.
• The 6pp increase in dividend payout signals management’s positive view in the outlook, and the Chairman is explicitly confident in good FY24 profit growth. 

• In March 2024, BYD’s Sales volume increased by 46% YoY and Li Auto’s sales volume increased by 39% YoY.
• AliPay announced that foreigners’ consumption amount in China in March was ten times of last year.
• Facing stagnancy and competition, Alibaba’s Taobao removed service charges from its retailers.

• L’Occitane (973 HK) announced two solid moves this week:  1) Disposing the 70% stake in Grown Alchemist;
• And 2) granting additional call options to Sol de Janeiro CEO Heela Yang of up to 7%.
• The stock is trading at 19x FY25 PE (fiscal year ending March), up from just 14x six months ago.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• China Vanke
• Indika Energy
• Vedanta Resources

• One of a basket of Hong Kong commodity stocks we like
• One off issues in 2023 which should reverse in 2024
• Can also be viewed as  a tangential play on India’s industrial growth

• Jinxin Fertility Group Ltd., China’s largest private provider of in vitro fertility (IVF) services, is buying a stake in an Indonesian peer, venturing into Southeast Asia as demand in China declines with more couples opting not to have babies.
• Hong Kong-listed Jinxin Fertility has signed an equity investment deal to become a “significant shareholder” of PT Morula Indonesia, an IVF specialist affiliated with PT Bundamedik Tbk, a major women- and children-focused health care services group in Indonesia, according to a joint statement Monday.
• It did not specify how much capital Jinxin will invest.

• The Hang Seng Index has been rising for 2 weeks but the uptrend seems slow and weak. The rally may have stalled, a pullback may be behind the corner.
• Based on our MONTHLY seasonal studies for the HSI, the index has a extremely high chance to close April in negative territory.
• You can go SHORT now, or during this coming week if the index keeps rising, target the 17000 to 17300 areas.

• Hong Kong hotel-play Langham Hospitality (1270 HK) was spun-off from Great Eagle (41 HK) on the 30 May 2013. Now GE intends to take the company back into the fold. 
• Covid was devastating to the hospitality sector. As were the 2019 demonstrations. Langham’s share price never recovered, and is currently trading at a lifetime low and a P/B of 0.21x.
• No price was mentioned in the announcement. Expect a healthy premium to undisturbed, should a firm Offer unfold. But I wouldn’t expect a knockout price.

• ZhongAn Online P&C Insurance C (6060 HK) is benefiting from the cross-selling opportunities  generated through the eco-systems of Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) and Tencent (700 HK), its parent companies
• Largest solely online insurance company in China with Rmb 30B gross premiums written in 2023.
• Expertise and cross-selling from Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) , another parent company with a jointly run auto insurance business.

• After a solid FY23, Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)‘s outlook for FY24 looks equally encouraging. Its various brands are expected to grow by 10-30% YoY still.  
• Listing of Amer Sports (AS US) will provide Rmb1.6bn non-recurring gain in 1H24. For the full year, there will be a positive swing in its profit contribution. 
• Anta Sports can be considered as a sportswear brand incubator, and its premium PERs of 18.3x and 15.9x for FY24 and FY25 reflect the ability to brew new brands. 

• We believe consensus has not fully captured the company’s margin upside for FY24/25, likely due to management’s excessively conservative guidances.
• Our confidence is underpinned by positive SSSG trend, accelerating store expansion and clear trajectory for store margin improvement.
• We expect the company to generate RMB150/320 million adjusted net profit for FY24/25 respectively, compared to RMB30/150 million baked in consensus. Reiterate buy with HK$80 target price (30x FY25 earnings).  

• Zongmu Technology (1491595D CH) is looking to raise up to US$150m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by Huatai and BNP Paribas.
• Zongmu Technology is a Chinese advanced driver assistance system (ADAS) solutions provider, offering solutions with comprehensive autonomous driving functions. 
• As a Tier 1 supplier, it undertakes software design, hardware design, system design and the integration of these components to develop solutions for mass deployment.

• Langham Hospitality Inv Ss (1270 HK) received a notice from Great Eagle Holdings (41 HK), the largest unitholder, that it intends to present a detailed proposal for scheme privatisation.
• The privatisation interest is unsurprising, as the unit price has declined by 43% over the last twelve months. A tough 2023 did not help the declining sentiment.
• Our methodology for triangulating the potential offer price results in a range of HK$0.63-1.76. Our best guess is an offer of around HK$0.85, a 47% premium to the last close.

• With no stocks in outright inclusion or deletion zone, we do not expect any constituent changes for the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in June.
• Capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 5.3% leading to a round-trip trade of US$1.51bn.
• Li Auto (2015 HK) is expected to be the largest buy in June following the stock being the largest sell at the March rebalance (also due to capping).

• Nongfu Spring (9633 HK) announced a set of strong 2023 results last week, with 2H23 net profit up 62% yoy and sales up 33% yoy. 
• The best performing category in 2023 has been tea beverage products (30% of sales), which grew 83% yoy for the year and 105% yoy in 2H23, picking up speed.
• Nongfu Spring is trading at 33x 2024 earnings, which I believe is attractive. 

• In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of being involved in index changes for the Hang Seng Index in June 2024.
• The index changes for the June 2024 index rebal will be announced on 17th May 2024.
• The HSI selection process is highly subjective and does not follow clear-cut rules. This insight is simply an attempt to provide readers with an overall understanding of the possible scenarios.

• Oriental Watch (398 HK)  has begun Q4 2024 slowly, with its SSSG dropping by double-digit levels in all its major markets (HK/China and Macau).
• As the year almost draws to a close, we expect profits to drop 10-15% YoY for FY24 and the company to pay out 100%, resulting in a 14% dividend yield.
• The company also has 1.2 bn HKD of net cash, representing 70% of its market capitalization. Additionally, it has 700 mn HKD of investment property. 

• Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692 HK) reported a whopping 55% YoY net profit growth to RMB3 billion on just 13% YoY revenue growth to RMB6 billion in 2H23.
• Revenue from innovative drugs zoomed 52% YoY to RMB4 billion and its proportion to total revenue increased to 73% in 2H23 from 54% in 2H22 and 62% in 1H23.
• Although Hansoh is not expected to receive marketing approval for any in-house innovative product in 2024, existing portfolio of innovative drugs will continue to drive the growth of the company.

Anton Oilfield’s FY 2023 results were strong, with revenue growth accelerating to levels not registered since H1/19. The strong FCF boosted the cash balance. The company’s financial risk profile improved significantly, with Net Debt/EBITDA below 1x and healthy interest coverage ratios. Liquidity is adequate.

We expect the business’ positive momentum to continue in FY 2024. H1 is projected to be significantly better y-o-y, while H2 is anticipated to improve only marginally due to the high base effect.

• Besides the core product Utidelone Injection, the rest pipelines are mostly related to the indications expansion/new formulations R&D for Utidelone Injection. Excessive dependence on single product is hard to improve. 
• We’re not optimistic about the future sales growth of Utidelone Injection due to fierce competition/inconvenient administration methods/expired patent protection. Biostar is facing survival risks if new financing cannot be obtained.
• Biostar’s post-investment valuation is already RMB4.49 billion. Given the gloomy sentiment and the concerns about the pipeline/prospects, we think it could fall below this valuation level after IPO in HKEX.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Gajah Tunggal
• Rakuten
• Road King Infrastructure
• SK Hynix

• Soon-To-Be ex-healthcare technology platform play IntelliCentrics Global Holding (6819 HK) is a pseudo risk arb. 
• IntelliCentrics is selling its key ops, declaring a special dividend from the sale proceeds, subsequently being wound up, then delisted. 
• Shareholders have the option of voting on a raft of resolutions on the 18th April. Irrevocables total 72.1%. This is done. Just the final dividend amount needs to be confirmed.

• Zadaxin is the biggest performance driver of SciClone. However, due to the challenge of generic drugs/VBP, sales of Zadaxin wouldn’t maintain strong growth momentum.  SciClone’s revenue/profit would face a significant decline.
• The capital participating the IPO had reduced their holdings or exit entirely. Considering the low valuation/poor liquidity in HKEX, we think this privatization provides investors with a great exit opportunity.
• For arbitrage investors, the annualized return depends on the time it takes to complete the privatization (e.g. about 5%-10%). If the privatization fails, share price could fall back to HK$14.

• China Communications Construction (1800 HK) believes its FY24 new contracts and revenue growth can be faster than FY23, particularly fuelled by strategic new industries and overseas. 
• Its end-FY23 contract backlog of Rmb3.45trn (+1.8% YoY) translates into coverage of 4.1x of FY24F revenue, providing a secured stream of revenue over the next few years.
• Its improving cash flow allows for a 1pp increase in the payout ratio. Efforts in realising underlying asset value should narrow its 82% discount to book value.

• Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) posted strong 4Q23 results, with net profit up 18% yoy and sales up 10% yoy. 
• In terms of 2024 outlook, management targets a 5-10% yoy growth in both the top and bottom line. 
• The stock is has rerated up to 12x 2024E earnings, compared to an average of 13x over the last 10 years. 

• Spirits were high as we attended the TCL Electronics (1070.HK ) (“TCL”) investor conference last Thursday (28 March) at the Shangri-La in Hong Kong, following its after-market earnings release.
• The results topped our own expectations in some areas, which we outlined in our recent write-up on the Company .
• We decided to summarize the results, as well as management insights shared at the conference for added context.

• We like Dream International (1126 HK), the plush toy maker listed in HK for its long-term association with Disney and revenue growth profile (12% CAGR over 15 years).
• The 15-year ROE has averaged 18%, and the company currently has 40% of the market capitalization (1.3 bn HKD) in net cash on the balance sheet. 
• Trading at 3.7x FY23 PE, with a 12% dividend yield (and the company’s high likelihood of maintaining a payout ratio), this is an idea worth exploring.

• The sBLA of Carvykti is under review by FDA with a target PDUFA date of April 5. If approved for 2L therapy, Carvykti would become “a game changer” in MM treatment.
• The peak sales of US$5 billion is becoming possible. From this perspective, as Carvykti advances towards earlier line treatment, the subsequent valuation leap of legend Bio is becoming more certain.
• However, considering lower gross margin and Legend Bio/J&J’s 50/50 split ratio, Legend Bio’s market value performance could be inferior to BeiGene. Investors should also closely monitor the changes in macro.

China Vanke’s FY 2023 numbers were somewhat soft in our view. While its top line and profitability declined in tandem with industry trends, the company’s property development gross margin remained robust (relative to peers) at c. 15%. Negatively, OCF (after interest and tax) was weak and net debt continued to rise. Leverage and coverage metrics deteriorated, but remained at reasonable levels (vs. peers).

Vanke’s liquidity at the holdco level is likely tight. In particular, the migration of bank borrowings to the project level has pressured the company’s holdco-level financing. The development may also indicate lenders’ reduced risk appetite towards Vanke. In addition, we view negatively that management did not disclose the amount of cash held under escrow restrictions. Moreover, it is unclear whether the Shenzhen government would provide extraordinary support (above and beyond market-oriented measures) to the company.

• Horizon Robotics is looking to raise US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are GS, MS and China Securities International.
• Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
• HR was the first and the largest Chinese company providing integrated ADAS and AD solutions in terms of annual installation volume since 2021, according to CIC.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• China Hongqiao
• Nickel Industries

• There is a rumor in social media that Tencent will dismiss 10% – 30% of its employees.
• Alibaba withdrew the IPO application of its subsidiary Cainiao and all the other IPOs were halted as well.
• Xiaomi began to sell its first vehicle model SU7, but it is too late for the company to enter the market.

• The IntelliCentrics Global Holding (6819 HK) IFA considers the terms for the disposal of assets to symplr software as fair and reasonable. The EGM vote is on 18 April.
• The consideration will be distributed to shareholders as a special dividend with a minimum and maximum of US$0.52 (HK$4.07) and US$0.55 (HK$4.30), respectively. 
• Irrevocables ensure that the EGM vote will pass. At the last close and for a 7 May payment, the gross and annualised spread of the minimum dividend is 2.8%/33.6%.

• Shenzhen International (152 HK) saw its FY23 earnings reaccelerated, supported by gains from the logistics park transformation business. Earnings even surged 169.1% YoY in 2H23. 
• REIT issuance on two logistics assets, increase in areas of logistics projects, gains from South China Logistics Park transformation, and better Shenzhen Expressway (548 HK) will fuel FY24.
• A better debt structure will save finance costs. Its 0.45x P/B, or 1.5SD below the 5-year average, is cheap given its proven ability to realise underlying asset value.

• CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK) reported steady growth in finished drugs in 2023. New products including Mingfule, Yilouda, and Anfulike achieved rapid sales ramp-up due to inclusion in the NRDL.
• The company expects to launch 50 innovative drugs in the next five years, which will provide continuous momentum. The company further aims for 17 common generic launches during 2024–2025.
• CSPC Pharmaceutical shares are trading at a P/E of 11.3x, lowest level seen in last five years, and cheaper than peers. Dividend yield remains attractive at 4%+.

• Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) posted robust results in its fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings call.
• Increasing subscribers and expedited revenue growth were notable positives, taking the total number of subscribers to the 100 million milestone due to the company’s focus on content leadership, platform value, and offering a high-quality user experience.
• Yet, the company also faced some headwinds, particularly in the social entertainment business.

• This is our first report on Polestar.
• The company saw their highest-ever delivery volume for the Q3 2023 period.
• The said period witnessed record deliveries of 13,976 vehicles, representing a growth of 51% compared to the same period in the previous year.

• Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) reached another record year with net profit surging 24.2% in FY23. Favourable product mix has benefited gross margin which expanded 0.8pp YoY.
• Record new orders of Rmb86.5bn (+31.9% YoY) have been signed and there is a recovery in momentum in 4Q23. Its end-FY23 backlog should be enough to cover 3.1x FY24F revenue.
• DEC is well-positioned to capture the demand for hydrogen energy and power storage. With 19.3% 3-year earnings CAGR, its 5.1x PER and 8.2% dividend yield are attractive.

• WuXi Bio’s profit was disappointing.The 41 new orders added last December were small orders, which cannot contribute decent revenue/profits.The goal of gross margin to reach 45% by 2026 seems challenging.
• The management has become more cautious in its guidance for 2024. 2024H1’s performance could be disappointing. The key is to see whether the performance in 2024 full-year would meet expectations.
• Due to BIOSECURE Act, foreign CXOs are planning to seize WuXi Bio’s market share. We are not sure whether Europe (the US’s ally), will follow suit and enact similar legislation.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Kawasan Industri Jababeka
• Rakuten
• Tata Motors ADR

• The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
• SOUTHBOUND’s consecutive buying streak ended on Monday, and a new buying streak started Tuesday. NORTHBOUND net bought the dip. Last week’s (double long) choice Longyuan Power was up 5.24%.
• Narrow AH premia narrowed some. Wider AH premia saw Hs outperform. There is a LOT of spread left in this market.  7 recommendations this week.

• We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK), Qantm Intellectual Property (QIP AU), Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU), Southern Cross Media (SXL AU), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), QV Equities.
• Lowest spreads: Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), Roland DG Corp (6789 JP), Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), Mma Offshore (MRM AU). 

• Chinese outbound travel demand continued to recover nicely in February
• Major airlines’ decision to slow capacity rebuild now looks very prudent
• But the airlines have underperformed, surprisingly; Buy Trip.com below US$43

• After Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK) was suspended on the 19th March pursuant to the Takeovers Code, I speculated a Scheme at the March 2021 IPO Price. And that’s what unfolded.
• Li Zhenfu (SciClone’s NED), Assicurazioni Generali (G IM) and concert parties (collectively controlling 36.61%) have made an Offer at $18.80/share, a 33.9% premium to last close. Terms are final.
• The long stop date is the 31 October. That’s too conservative. This could be wrapped up late July. 

• Licensing-Out deals of Chinese pharmaceutical assets are indeed significant milestones, but we should not exaggerate its significance. The product strength itself/subsequent progress are the true sources of clinical benefits/commercial value.
• In the field of weight loss drugs, first-mover advantage may not be that obvious. The possibility of latecomers to disrupt first-mover would not be that low or time-consuming.
• For Aier, 23Q4 results could show an obvious rebound, leading to relatively high growth in 2023 full year. However, Aier’s problems are still there, which means Aier is not undervalued.

• China announced game approval for the Feb batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
• The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
• However, neither Tencent and Netease got any approval in March.

• Theoretically, there’s no need to doubt WuXi XDC’s growth momentum. What needs to be proven is how large the actual ADC market is, which determines how much valuation it deserves.
• However, the biggest problem currently is geopolitical risks, which make performance forecasts groundless. In the context of Sino-US confrontation, there is “a hesitation” towards sustained high growth of WuXi XDC.
• If several pieces of news are put together, this is not just about China CXO/TikTok being sanctioned by US. New balance point in the game between great powers will emerge.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• China Vanke
• First Pacific Co
• Xiaomi Corp

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• China Vanke
• First Pacific Co
• Xiaomi Corp

• This report identifies stocks at the extremes of their positioning or momentum ranges within our Asia Ex-Japan fund universe.
• We have pinpointed eight stocks either at their historical positioning extremes or undergoing significant changes in fund ownership, providing detailed ownership profiles for each.
• Pinduoduo Inc and UltraTech Cement make gains, Sunny Optical sees ownership drift south, New Oriental Education moves off the lows.

• A shares were down on the week, but rallied Thursday and Friday.
• Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK8.5bn after $57bn the two weeks before. SOUTHBOUND ended its consecutive net daily buy streak Monday, then started buying again.
• The flavour of SOUTHBOUND buying has been high-div SOEs for months and months. That is starting to change slightly. Tencent was the top net buy this week. Again.

• Lawson Inc (2651 JP)‘s Tender Offer is still too cheap. It is also a somewhat non-transparent and unfair process. And it does not adhere to the METI Fair M&A Guidelines.
• Samsonite (1910 HK)‘s pursuit of a dual listing (primary or secondary?) appears to be put the buyout on the backburner. For now.
• Socionext (6526 JP) and ZOZO Inc (3092 JP) have a large part of the Max Real World Float to displace. Neither of those two names are outlandishly expensive.

• Atour reported C4Q23 revenue vs. our estimate/consensus by 18%/21% and guided a robust 30% yoy revenue growth for 2024, outpacing the consensus by 12% and our estimate by 7%
• C4Q23 operating margin decline was due to one-off leased hotel impairment and seasonality in retail marketing. We foresee stable margin in 2024;
• We maintain our BUY rating and keep our TP at US$37.5, implying a 2024 P/E of 34x, vs. currently trading at 16x.

• The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
• Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 5.4bn of A-shares on decent volume after buying RMB 25bn net the two weeks before.
• The volume is still chasing momentum, and dip buying on the buys. Selling dips on losers. CATL the big buy, and less passive-feeling than last week.