Category

China

Daily Brief China: China Merchants China Direct Investments, Tianju Dihe Technology, Foxconn Industrial Internet and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • CMCDI (133 HK): Kan Re-Elected. But Only Just
  • Tianju Dihe Technology IPO: Limited Room For Multiple Expansion Despite Healthy Growth
  • Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact


CMCDI (133 HK): Kan Re-Elected. But Only Just

By David Blennerhassett

  • At the AGM yesterday, China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)‘s director Elizabeth Kan was re-appointed, but by a wafer-thin margin: 29.97% of shares out FOR, and 29.44% AGAINST.
  • Stripping out Victor Chu’s stake (~2%?) and China Merchant’s (27.6%), or collectively ~29.6% of shares out, it’s fair to say the remainder of the shareholder register wants her out. 
  • CMCDI is currently trading at a 55% discount to the latest NAV (as at 31st May 2024) of HK$30.42/share.  Argyle continues to add to its position. 

Tianju Dihe Technology IPO: Limited Room For Multiple Expansion Despite Healthy Growth

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Tianju Dihe Technology, a provider of integrated API-enabled data exchange services in China, set terms for an IPO and plans to raise ~HK$400M in June.
  • The initial public offering is expected to be priced at HK$83.33 per H share, valuing the technology company at ~HK$4.2B or $535M based on 50.1M outstanding shares.  
  • Cornerstone investors have agreed to acquire ~3.8M H shares, representing 80% of the offer shares or ~8% of the total outstanding shares.

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

By Joe Jasper

  • Not much has changed since our latest Int’l Compass from May 31, 2024 titled “Buy the Pullback.” 
  • We were buyers of the pullback in global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) with important supports holding, combined with ongoing healthy market dynamics.
  • Supports are holding, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to buy dips.

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Daily Brief China: Taste Gourmet, SenseTime Group , PC Partner, Hengdeli Holdings, Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, Sa Sa International Hldgs, China Merchants China Direct Investments, Road King Infrastructure and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Taste Gourmet (8371 HK): Strong FY24, 6.7x PE, Cash ~23% of Mkt Cap and >8% Dividend Yield
  • Sensetime Placement – Seems Highly Opportunistic
  • PC Partners (1263 HK) Muses SGX Listing & HKEx Withdrawal
  • Hengdeli Holdings (3389 HK)’s Pitiful Partial Offer
  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec 24:  A Long-Short Basket Trade Idea with High Momentum
  • Sa Sa Intl (178 HK): Every Coin Has Two Sides
  • CMCDI Update: Warning Shot Fired At AGM Despite Kan’s Successful Re-Election
  • Morning Views Asia: Road King Infrastructure


Taste Gourmet (8371 HK): Strong FY24, 6.7x PE, Cash ~23% of Mkt Cap and >8% Dividend Yield

By Sameer Taneja

  • Taste Gourmet (8371 HK) reported revenues up 37% YoY and profits up 29% YoY (lower than our expectation of 39% profit growth) due to a slightly weaker-than-expected Q4.
  • Dividends for H2 were 7.4 cents/share (overall FY24:12.9 cents), implying an 8.1% dividend yield. Net cash on the balance sheet was 143 mn HKD (23% of market cap).
  • Trading at 6.7x PE FY24 (March end) and with an excellent execution track record, we believe that the company will be able to post more robust numbers in FY25. 

Sensetime Placement – Seems Highly Opportunistic

By Sumeet Singh

  • SenseTime Group (20 HK)  aims to raise up to US$263m via selling around 4.5% stake.
  • Sensetime hasn’t had the best of times since listing, however, the shares have rebounded recently on generative AI buzz around the stock.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

PC Partners (1263 HK) Muses SGX Listing & HKEx Withdrawal

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 18th June, personal computer (PC) parts and accessories play PC Partner (1263 HK) announced a profit alert for 1H24. 
  • That’s positive. What is also interesting is that the board is considering an SGX listing, by way of introduction, and applying for the withdrawal of the HKEx listing.
  • Precedents are thin on the ground. And for good reason. The process is not straightforward.

Hengdeli Holdings (3389 HK)’s Pitiful Partial Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • After watch accessory play Hengdeli Holdings (3389 HK) was suspended on the 17th June pursuant to the Takeovers Code, I didn’t hold out high hopes of a knock-out Offer.
  • And on cue, CEO Tony Cheung (16%), son of founder Zhang Yuping (holding 17%), has made a Partial Offer (for 15% of shares outstanding) at HK$0.16/share, towards gaining majority control.
  • That’s a 18.5% premium to last close … and a 80% discount to NAV, and a 47% discount to Hengdeli’s net cash as at 31 December 2023.

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec 24:  A Long-Short Basket Trade Idea with High Momentum

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2024.
  • Currently, we see 16 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.

Sa Sa Intl (178 HK): Every Coin Has Two Sides

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Despite missing market consensus, Sa Sa International Hldgs (178 HK)‘s FY24 result still have silver linings. Its resumption of dividends with a 70% payout ratio is welcoming.
  • Tax credit in 2H23 has distorted comparison. At pre-tax level, 2H24 profit has gone up by 29.5%. Cost management is solid, generating a 0.9pp FY24 operating margin expansion. 
  • While overall 1Q25 sales have dropped, mainland China sales surged 83.9%. The macro environment should have bottomed and government efforts to attract tourists will pay off.  

CMCDI Update: Warning Shot Fired At AGM Despite Kan’s Successful Re-Election

By Alec Tseung

  • While Elizabeth Kan barely survived the AGM vote, ASM has effectively mobilized minority shareholders.
  • Lazard (owns 15% of CMCDI) probably voted alongside ASM (owns 9%). Other than China Merchants Group and Victor Chu, almost no “outside shareholders” voted in favor of Kan, .
  • The next battleground is a vote in November when CMCDI needs to renew its investment management agreement. Intense behind-the-scene negotiations are expected, given the bargaining power ASM now demonstrated.

Morning Views Asia: Road King Infrastructure

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H), West China Cement, Black Sesame Technologies, Bloks Group, Soft International Group and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Recent Sell-Off in Tanker Stocks Provides an Opportunity in Cosco Shipping Energy – 1138.HK
  • West China Cement (2233 HK):  African Cement Play At 4x 2024E PE
  • Black Sesame Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Unable to Shake off Its Loss-Making Tendencies
  • Bloks Group IPO: Exceptional Revenue Hyper-Growth and Profitability Are Unique Among Toy Makers
  • Pre-IPO Soft International Group – Whether Performance Growth Can Be Sustained Is a Question Mark


Recent Sell-Off in Tanker Stocks Provides an Opportunity in Cosco Shipping Energy – 1138.HK

By Rikki Malik

  • All the business fundamentals continue to trend in the right direction
  • The sector has sold off with the general commodity sell-off
  • Investors not giving the benefit of the doubt to future oil demand

West China Cement (2233 HK):  African Cement Play At 4x 2024E PE

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • West China Cement (2233 HK) is a cement company based in Western China.  Sales volume in Africa in 2023 was 2.6 million tons, up 117% from 1.2 million tons in 2022. 
  • The company has 2 million tons of cement capacity in Mozambique, 1.5 million tons in Congo, and 1.3 million tons in Ethiopia. 
  • The company is trading at 4x 2024E PE.  I believe the risk reward is quite high here. 

Black Sesame Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Unable to Shake off Its Loss-Making Tendencies

By Clarence Chu

  • Black Sesame Technologies (BLACKSES HK) is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Black Sesame International Holdings (BSIH) is an automotive-grade computing SoC and SoC-based intelligent vehicle solution provider.
  • In our previous note we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we discuss Black Sesame’s PHIP updates.

Bloks Group IPO: Exceptional Revenue Hyper-Growth and Profitability Are Unique Among Toy Makers

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Bloks Group, a fast-growing toy company and leader of assembly character toys, filed for a Hong Kong IPO. The company is headquartered in Shanghai, PRC, and has 410 full-time employees.
  • Bloks Group has raised $200M+ to date from investors, including YF Capital, Legend Capital, Source Code Capital, Gaorong Capital and SinoMedia Asia Pacific.
  • The Chinese toy maker has delivered an exceptional revenue hyper-growth of 169% y/y in 2023. Elite operating metrics and impressive financial profile make IPO attractive for investors.

Pre-IPO Soft International Group – Whether Performance Growth Can Be Sustained Is a Question Mark

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The top two biggest markets of Soft International (China and Russia) are encountering the challenge of slowing growth or even growth stagnation due to decreasing birth rate and increasing competition.
  • Single-Digit net profit margin is not satisfactory for a company with strong consumption attributes. This makes us wonder if the personal hygienic disposables is not a money-making business. 
  • Overreliance on Russian Top-tier Retailer would bring risks to the business.Both revenue growth and profitability could decrease sharply if adverse situations occur. Soft International’s valuation could be lower than peers.

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Daily Brief China: L’Occitane, COFCO Joycome Foods, Hutchmed China Ltd, ENN Energy and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • L’Occitane (973 HK): No, PLP Is Not Getting A Back-End Bump
  • COFCO Joycome (1610 HK): Brewing a Hog Cycle Upturn?
  • Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/​​HCM.US) – Time to Reassess Valuation Prospects Despite the Pain Points
  • Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, ENN Energy, ENN Natural Gas, MGM China Holdings


L’Occitane (973 HK): No, PLP Is Not Getting A Back-End Bump

By David Blennerhassett

  • In a long-awaited development, L’Occitane (973 HK)  announced during the lunchbreak yesterday, a scrip alternative. Plus Pleasant Lake Partners (PLP) (3.25%) will accept the Offer (either in cash or scrip). 
  • This was positive news. And the market reacted accordingly, up ~1.0% in the afternoon session.
  • One quirk in the doc was the perception those electing the scrip alternative may get a higher % in the unlisted Offeror. A back-end bump for PLP? (Hint: No).

COFCO Joycome (1610 HK): Brewing a Hog Cycle Upturn?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Cofco Joycome (1610 HK) is in a good position to benefit from the hog cycle upturn. China’s anti-dumping investigation into imported pork from the EU may also disrupt supply.
  • Its average hog price has increased by 12.7% YTD and by 1.6% YoY for 5M24. Market hog price further surged by 10.4% in the week of 12-Jun from end-May.
  • Its P/B of 0.78x is inexpensive at 1SD below the 5-year average. Its peers like Muyuan Foodstuff (002714 CH) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498 CH) are also interesting. 

Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/​​HCM.US) – Time to Reassess Valuation Prospects Despite the Pain Points

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Takeda’s sales team is fully prepared for the launch of fruquintinib in EU. 2024 full-year overseas sales may once again beat the expectations. High growth is expected from 2024 to 2026.
  • Peak sales of fruquintinib + savolitinib + surufatinib that recorded in HUTCHMED’s revenue is expected to be over US$750 million.Without considering other revenue, market value would reach about US$4.5 billion.
  • HUTCHMED’s pipeline lacks blockbuster products and the indications are small. With the rise of PROTAC, small molecule drugs would face challenges, which would test the management’s resilience in the future.

Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, ENN Energy, ENN Natural Gas, MGM China Holdings

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: L’Occitane, Hengdeli Holdings, XPeng , New Oriental Education & Techn, Lufax Holding , Taste Gourmet, Iron Ore and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • L’Occitane (973 HK): Share Alternative a Crucial Step Towards the Offer Being Declared Unconditional
  • Hengdeli Holdings (3389 HK): Negative EV Play Halted
  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep 24: No Changes but US$425mn One-Way Flows Due to Capping
  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Two Changes Possible; US$256mn One-Way
  • L’Occitane (973.HK) – The Privatization Is About to Succeed
  • Closing Lufax
  • Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – June 2024
  • Persistent Weakness in Chinese Real Estate Will Drag Iron Ore Prices Down


L’Occitane (973 HK): Share Alternative a Crucial Step Towards the Offer Being Declared Unconditional

By Arun George

  • L’Occitane (973 HK) announced the share alternative at an exchange ratio of 10 rollover shares for each offer share, subject to a cap of 5% of outstanding shares.
  • The share alternative option will help the offer and was likely required to get Pleasant Lake Partners’ support (3.25% of outstanding shares). There is minimal vocal opposition to the offer. 
  • Irrevocables/Letters of support represent 49.83% of disinterested shares. An attractive offer and the share alternative facilitate meeting the minimum acceptance condition, which requires an 80% disinterested acceptance rate (ex. irrevocables).

Hengdeli Holdings (3389 HK): Negative EV Play Halted

By David Blennerhassett

  • Watch accessory play Hengdeli Holdings (3389 HK) is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
  • Potentially founder Zhang Yuping (holding 17%), CEO Tony Cheung (16%) and/or Swatch Group (UHR SW) (9.94%) may table an Offer. My money is on Zhang.
  • This is a very illiquid name. What is interesting is that Hengdeli has net cash of HK$1.3bn – as at 31 December 2023 – against a market cap of HK$0.59bn.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep 24: No Changes but US$425mn One-Way Flows Due to Capping

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the rankings of potential ADDs and potential DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event.
  • We do not see any index changes in September 2024 but there could be one-way flows of US$425mn due to capping.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Two Changes Possible; US$256mn One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in September 2024.
  • Based on the current data, I see two ADDs and two DELs.

L’Occitane (973.HK) – The Privatization Is About to Succeed

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • So far, about 49.8% of disinterested shares from Irrevocable Undertakings/Non-binding Letters of Support would accept the Share Offer. Success is within reach based on a “good enough” privatization price. 
  • The Share Alternative is mainly aimed at investors who are hoping for the future re-listing of L’Occitane in the overseas markets – They can still get a vantage point.
  • However, re-listing seems still distant/uncertain. The value of Rollover Shares in the future remains uncertain. Investors would face risks if they choose the Share Alternative. The Cash Alternative is preferred.

Closing Lufax

By Turtles all the way down

  • It has come to my attention that Lufax management has recently altered the terms of their convertible debt: Based on the terms and conditions of the Ping An Convertible Promissory Notes, as a result of the Special Dividend, the Conversion Price will be adjusted from US$12.
  • Based on the terms and conditions of the Ping An Convertible Promissory Notes, as a result of the Special Dividend, the Conversion Price will be adjusted from US$12.76 per Share as at the date of this circular to US$2.32 per Share upon settlement of the Special Dividend, and thus, upon full conversion, the Ping An Convertible Promissory Notes can be converted into a maximum number of 421,077,586 Shares (the “Conversion Shares”).
  • The Company considers that the adjustment formula is in line with market practice for anti-dilution provisions in convertible securities.

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – June 2024

By Sameer Taneja


Persistent Weakness in Chinese Real Estate Will Drag Iron Ore Prices Down

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

  • Chinese real estate investments fell 10.1% in the first five months of 2024 YoY. New home prices fell at the fastest pace in more than 9.5 years in May.
  • Fresh bank lending in China rebounded well expectations in May. Chinese banks issued 950B yuan (v/s 1.36T yuan issued last May) in new loans last month.
  • China’s consumer inflation held flat in May amid feeble domestic demand, uneven economic recovery, and consumer confidence weakness.

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Daily Brief China: SHEIN, WuXi AppTec, 4Paradigm, Alibaba Group Holding , BYD, China Railway Signal & Communication, Ascentage Pharma Group Corp, Fangzhou, Iron Ore, China Vanke and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Growth of SHEIN, Temu Appears to Be Boosting Asia-US Air Cargo Volume & Pricing
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Jun16)-WuXi Get A “Reprieve”, Vaccine Company in Trouble, Insurance Surplus
  • 4Paradigm: Sage AI Platform 5.0. Could Drive ~30% Y/Y Revenue Growth in 2024, PT Raised To HK$100
  • ECM Weekly (17th June 2024)-Shift Up, Webtoon, Quantum, Guzman, MaoGeping, Johor Plant, Telix, Atour
  • China Consumption Weekly (17 Jun 2024): BYD, Geely, Zeekr, Zhihu, China Literature, Tencent
  • China CRSC (3969 HK): Well Worth the Premium
  • Ascentage Pharma (6855.HK) Signs $1.3B Deal with Takeda – Finally on the Right Path
  • Pre-IPO Fangzhou Inc. (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
  • Harvesting Seasonality in Iron Ore Prices Induced by Weather, Inventory Restocking, and Holidays
  • Morning Views Asia: Bharti Airtel, China Vanke , Nickel Industries


Growth of SHEIN, Temu Appears to Be Boosting Asia-US Air Cargo Volume & Pricing

By Daniel Hellberg

  • For first time since 2022, carriers’ cargo revenue, yield, load factor all rising
  • Asia outbound, US inbound air cargo tons both improving in early 2024
  • SHEIN, Temu could account for 40%+ of US inbound air tons from CH, HK, TW

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun16)-WuXi Get A “Reprieve”, Vaccine Company in Trouble, Insurance Surplus

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Due to increasing competition/price reduction/overcapacity issue, outlook of domestic vaccine companies isn’t optimistic, which has been reflected in 24Q1 results. However, there’s also a “special one” that deserves investors’ attention.
  • The status of medical insurance funds is improving rather than deteriorating, but we’re currently in the first half of the decade with the highest pressure on medical insurance.
  • As the H.R.8333 proposal faced obstacles in the process of being included in NDAA, WuXi AppTec/WuXi Bio’s shares once rebounded.We remain conservative as situation is not as simple as imagined.

4Paradigm: Sage AI Platform 5.0. Could Drive ~30% Y/Y Revenue Growth in 2024, PT Raised To HK$100

By Andrei Zakharov

  • 4Paradigm, China’s AI software company with focus on enterprise-level solutions, performed well and achieved solid growth in 2023 and Q1 2024. 
  • In my insight, I discuss valuation framework for comparable company analysis and set a new 12-month PT for 4Paradigm.
  • The company’s management has set a clear goal of profitability. I like 4Paradigm’s leadership position and hyper-growth in revenue from the Sage AI Platform.

ECM Weekly (17th June 2024)-Shift Up, Webtoon, Quantum, Guzman, MaoGeping, Johor Plant, Telix, Atour

By Sumeet Singh


China Consumption Weekly (17 Jun 2024): BYD, Geely, Zeekr, Zhihu, China Literature, Tencent

By Ming Lu

  • European Commission will impose provisional tariffs on imported Chinese battery electric vehicles.
  • Zeekr’s deliveries increased by 117% YoY in 1Q24 and by 112% YoY in the first five months of 2024.
  • Ant Group will pay RMB1 billion to sponsor content creators on AliPay.

China CRSC (3969 HK): Well Worth the Premium

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China Railway Signal & Communication (3969 HK)‘s latest order backlog is estimated to be Rmb173.7bn, enough to cover FY24F revenue by 4.4x.
  • Gross margin has sustained expansion, reaching a record high of 27.8% in 1Q24. Higher R&D expenses will benefit its medium-term earnings.
  • Net cash equals 59% of the share price, allowing it to maintain over 50% payout and potentially higher going forward. Operating cash flow has also turned around to positive.

Ascentage Pharma (6855.HK) Signs $1.3B Deal with Takeda – Finally on the Right Path

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Ascentage was originally in an extremely difficult situation, but the cooperation with Takeda turned things around. Ascentage has obtained urgently needed cash flow to solve the survival problem.
  • At this stage, it’s possible for Ascentage to hit about 50% market value of HCM.  Investors are interested to know if APG-2575 would also be out-licensed, which however is not easy.
  • Ascentage’s current strength isn’t sufficient to self-build sales system. While this deal is a good start, if Ascentage still chooses to do commercialization on its own, it’s time to sell. 

Pre-IPO Fangzhou Inc. (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Fangzhou cannot get around the decreasing unit-price of drugs and the increasing role of medical insurance in chronic-disease treatment.It’s challenging to find patients willing to pay out of own pockets.
  • The internal dispute between the Founder and shareholders hasn’t ended, and related litigation is still pending. This makes us concerned about the stability of future business development and corporate governance. 
  • Fangzhou has significant cash flow pressure. In the case of increasingly fierce competition in the industry, without successful business diversification/transformation, growth prospects is gloomy, Valuation should be lower than peers. 

Harvesting Seasonality in Iron Ore Prices Induced by Weather, Inventory Restocking, and Holidays

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

  • SGX Iron Ore prices exhibit seasonality. For select six months being long Iron Ore combined with short positions during other months deliver positive P&L based on back tests. 
  • In line with prices, realised volatility exhibits seasonality too. Options strategies can exploit this to deliver superior alpha & higher sharpe ratio.
  • Averages confound extreme variances. Monthly iron ore futures price returns are less volatile during the months of December, February, June, October, & March based on range.

Morning Views Asia: Bharti Airtel, China Vanke , Nickel Industries

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Plover Bay Technologies, Dickson Concepts Intl, Hang Seng Index and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Plover Bay 1523 HK Earnings Preview: Strong H1 FY24, Rerating to Continue
  • Dickson Concepts (113 HK): 38% Discount to NCAV, 8.6% Dividend Yield, Steady FY24
  • EQD | Is the HSI Correction Going to Continue? (Yes, For 1-2 Weeks)


Plover Bay 1523 HK Earnings Preview: Strong H1 FY24, Rerating to Continue

By Sameer Taneja

  • We expect strong 30-35% YoY earnings growth in Plover Bay Technologies (1523 HK) for its earnings to be released in July for H1 FY24. 
  • We expect the company to continue its 80% dividend payout ratio, which will result in a 4% semi-annual yield (8% annualized). 
  • Trading at 12.2x with >50% ROEs and net cash of >30 mn USD, we expect the strong results to catalyze a further multiple rerate.

Dickson Concepts (113 HK): 38% Discount to NCAV, 8.6% Dividend Yield, Steady FY24

By Sameer Taneja

  • Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK) reported earnings growth of 39% YoY, led mostly by an increase in interest income on the 9.6 HKD/share of net cash/investments on the balance sheet. 
  • The company’s net current asset value (NCAV) expanded to 8.2 HKD/share (Vs. FY23: 7.6 HKD/share), and with the stock at 5.2 HKD/share, it trades at a 37% discount to NCAV. 
  • The dividend was increased to 45 cents ( from FY23:35 cents/share), placing the stock at an attractive dividend yield of 8.6%.

EQD | Is the HSI Correction Going to Continue? (Yes, For 1-2 Weeks)

By Nico Rosti

  • The Hang Seng Index correction has restarted this week, after a brief 1-week bounce.
  • The index may continue to downtrend for another 1-2 weeks, then a reversal should come and the uptrend should restart.
  • Look at the price support area in the 17500-17000 range, because that is where my model indicates the highest chance of LONG reversal.

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Daily Brief China: Chow Tai Fook Jewellery, JD.com Inc (ADR), Luckin Coffee, Hong Kong Television Network, AP Moeller – Maersk A/S, UMP Healthcare, China Hongqiao and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): Disappointed
  • [Blue Lotus Multi-Sector Sector Update]: Consumer Spending Weakened During Dragon Boat
  • Luckin’s Small Step into Non-Coffee Drinks Is a Big Step of Its Future Directions
  • HKTV (1137 HK): 9th July Vote On Share Buy-Back
  • Why an Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Probably Wouldn’t Lead to Lower Container Rates in Short-Term
  • UMP Healthcare (722 HK): Deep Value Turnaround in FY25
  • Morning Views Asia: Alam Sutera Realty, China Hongqiao, Lippo Karawaci, Tata Motors ADR


Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): Disappointed

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) reported a weaker-than-expected FY24 net profit. Despite having HK$2.2bn net cash, the lack of a special dividend is even more disappointing. 
  • Surge in unrealised loss on gold loans and a YoY contraction in margin have contributed to the poor 2H24 result. Apr-May operating figures showed a deteriorated operating environment.
  • Lacking a special dividend, CTF no longer looks attractive at the current level. Overoptimistic FY25 and FY26 consensus forecasts mean earnings downgrade pressure. 

[Blue Lotus Multi-Sector Sector Update]: Consumer Spending Weakened During Dragon Boat

By Eric Wen

  • Travel and box office data in the past three-day Dragonboat Holiday showed worrying weakness despite sharp price cuts by hotel and airlines. 
  • Removing travellers from Hong Kong, inbound travel was also quite bad; 
  • E-Commerce sales backed by trade-in stimulus outperformed regular merchandises, indicating consumer confidence is still low. We believe the weak travel data boded ill for consumption throughout the year.

Luckin’s Small Step into Non-Coffee Drinks Is a Big Step of Its Future Directions

By Andy Fu

  • Luckin launched lemonade drinks with raging success of 5.08 mn cups sold for the first week, ~10% of store sales. Market cheered to send the stock higher;  
  • We view it with mixed feelings. While it is margin accretive and sales enhancing,  is not conducive to improving coffee penetration and cultivating consumers’ habit for drinking coffee;
  • We see Luckin as increasingly one of, instead of the, street drink company, because lemonade is actually the top selling SKU of all milk tea vendors in China. 

HKTV (1137 HK): 9th July Vote On Share Buy-Back

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 22nd May, online shopping platform play Hong Kong Television Network (1137 HK) announced a buy-back of 11.25% of shares out, at $2.15/share, a 20.8% premium to undisturbed.
  • Should the Offer complete, co-founder Ricky Wong’s stake, together with concert parties, increases to 51.55% (before exercising options), up from 45.75% currently. Optically, it’s a opportunistic share grab. 
  • The Offer Doc is now out, with an EGM to vote on the whitewash waiver on the 9th July. 

Why an Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Probably Wouldn’t Lead to Lower Container Rates in Short-Term

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Its unclear whether Yemen-based Houthis would end attacks after ceasefire
  • We’ve entered peak Summer shipping season from Asia to US, Europe
  • Higher spot rates have already lifted contract rates in Q2 2024

UMP Healthcare (722 HK): Deep Value Turnaround in FY25

By Sameer Taneja

  • We preview UMP Healthcare (722 HK)  earnings for FY24 (June-end), which will be declared in September, and our outlook for FY25. 
  • The company has more than 300 mn HKD of net cash (almost 75% of its market cap), and even assuming a 20% dividend cut, it has an ~8% dividend yield.
  • On core earnings for FY24, we estimate that the stock trades at 12x PE( ex-cash 2.8x PE), with low-hanging fruit from streamlining the business in FY25. 

Morning Views Asia: Alam Sutera Realty, China Hongqiao, Lippo Karawaci, Tata Motors ADR

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: A8 New Media, Mao Geping Cosmetics, Shenzhen Transsion Holdings , QuantumPharm, Medtide, Yankuang Energy Group, Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA), Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine, Road King Infrastructure and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • A8 New Media (800 HK): A Scheme with a 162% Takeover Premium
  • Mao Geping Cosmetics Pre-IPO – Riding on the Founder’s Reputation
  • Transsion (688036 CH): Global No. 4 Smartphone Producer, Revenue Up by 88% YoY in 1Q24
  • QuantumPharm IPO Trading – Lukewarm Insti Demand Combined with a Tight Float at Listing
  • Medtide Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Coal Is Back – The Real Inconvenient Truth
  • Beijing Capital International Airport: On Track to Break Even
  • A8 Media (800 HK): A 163% Premium to Undisturbed? Yes Please.
  • Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276.CH) – More Downside Ahead; The Long Logic Doesn’t Exist
  • Morning Views Asia: Nickel Industries , Road King Infrastructure, Yankuang Energy Group


A8 New Media (800 HK): A Scheme with a 162% Takeover Premium

By Arun George

  • A8 New Media (800 HK) disclosed a Cayman scheme privatisation offer from Mr Liu Xiaosong (Founder, Chairman, CEO) at HK$0.36 per share, a 162.8% premium to the last close price. 
  • The massive premium is unsurprising, as A8’s EV has been negative since April 2023 due to headwinds from the weak Chinese leasing sector and uncertainty about cash use.  
  • The high takeover premium, no shareholder holding a blocking stake, and low AGM minority participation rate point to a done deal. However, this is a small-cap illiquid stock.  

Mao Geping Cosmetics Pre-IPO – Riding on the Founder’s Reputation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Mao Geping Cosmetics is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Mao Geping Cosmetics (MGC) operates in the premium beauty segment. Operating via its two brands, MAOGEPING and Love Keeps, MGC offers a wide range of color cosmetics and skincare products.
  • In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

Transsion (688036 CH): Global No. 4 Smartphone Producer, Revenue Up by 88% YoY in 1Q24

By Ming Lu

  • Transsion is the global No. 4 largest smartphone producer according to IDC.
  • In 1Q24, shipments increased by 34% YoY and revenue increased by 88% YoY.
  • We see the stock’s upside at 17% and the price target at RMB100.00.

QuantumPharm IPO Trading – Lukewarm Insti Demand Combined with a Tight Float at Listing

By Clarence Chu

  • QuantumPharm (QUP HK) raised US$126m from its Hong Kong IPO.
  • QuantumPharm is a R&D platform, utilizing quantum physics-based first-principles calculation, advanced AI, high-performance cloud computing, and scalable and standardized robotic automation to provide drug and material science R&D solutions.
  • We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

Medtide Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Medtide (1268709D CH) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by Morgan Stanley and Citic Securities.
  • Medtide is the third largest peptide-focused contract research, development and manufacturing organization (CRDMO) worldwide in terms of sales revenue in 2023, according to F&S. 
  • Its full-cycle services range from early-stage discovery, pre-clinical research and clinical development to commercial-stage production.

Coal Is Back – The Real Inconvenient Truth

By Rikki Malik

  • Increased demand from power plants under construction outside  G-7 countries
  • There is constrained supply as with many other fossil fuels
  • We look at a basket of coal stocks with good balance sheets and increasing production

Beijing Capital International Airport: On Track to Break Even

By Eric Chen

  • The worst is behind Beijing Capital International Airport. We believe it is on track to achieve breakeven on quarterly basis in 2H24.
  • We see recent parking fee hikes at Daxing Airport as a signal that more will come, which is not in the price and can bring in extra option value.
  • Boom-And-Bust in China property sector is behind the airport’s share price cycle. The airport is at the cusp of a steady recovery driving mean reversion of valuation .

A8 Media (800 HK): A 163% Premium to Undisturbed? Yes Please.

By David Blennerhassett

  • Following a suspension on the 28th May, property rental play A8 New Media (800 HK) has now announced an Offer by way of a Scheme from chairman/founder/major shareholder Liu Xiaosong.
  • The Cancellation price is $0.36, a whopping 162.77% to last close. The price is final.
  • This is a done deal. But A8 is an illiquid micro cap. 

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276.CH) – More Downside Ahead; The Long Logic Doesn’t Exist

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Around RMB5 billion generic drugs would be included in VBP in 2024/2025 (e.g. sevoflurane/Ioversol/butorphanol tartrate). So, the assumption that all the negative effects of VBP have cleared up isn’t correct.
  • Hengrui’s innovative drugs would lose growth momentum after they reach peak sales. It’s difficult for Hengrui to maintain its scale expansion or achieve the over 20% YoY revenue growth.
  • Hengrui’s PE would fall below 30 (or even below 20) in the future, which means its valuation would start to enter a downward trend. Current high valuation cannot be justified.

Morning Views Asia: Nickel Industries , Road King Infrastructure, Yankuang Energy Group

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Atour Lifestyle Holdings, China Merchants China Direct Investments, Sciclone Pharmaceuticals, New Gonow Recreational Vehicles, Meituan and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Atour Lifestyle Holdings Placement – Well Flagged Deal, past Selldowns Have Done Well
  • CMCDI (133 HK): AGM Outcome May Provide Another Leg-Up
  • Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600.HK) Privatization Update – Some “Unstable Factors” During Voting
  • New Gonow Recreational Vehicles Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Morning Views Asia: Meituan


Atour Lifestyle Holdings Placement – Well Flagged Deal, past Selldowns Have Done Well

By Sumeet Singh

  • Legend Capital (LC), one of the principal shareholders of Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT US), is looking to raise around US$168m through a secondary selldown.
  • This will be the third selldown by Legend Capital in just over a year’s time. Hence, the deal is well flagged.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

CMCDI (133 HK): AGM Outcome May Provide Another Leg-Up

By David Blennerhassett

  • Activist Argyle Street’s approach to closed-end investment company China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK) (CMCDI) has a certain David Webb-like quality.
  • Apart from the deep value angle, the analysis of director Elizabeth Kan’s potential conflict of interest is particularly insightful. Argle will vote against Kan’s re-election at the 20th June AGM
  • Given this upcoming vote, as I’ve done with Giordano (709 HK) and L’Occitane (973 HK) previously, it’s useful to investigate the lesser-known shareholder register, a byproduct of investigative disclosure reports.

Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600.HK) Privatization Update – Some “Unstable Factors” During Voting

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Some shareholders have confirmed to be acting in concert at the Court Meeting, but long-term investors may vote against the privatization because they are not satisfied with the Cancellation Price.
  • The success rate of SciClone’s privatization is lower than that of China TCM and L’Occitane. If fails, there’s a high probability that the share price will fall back to HK$14/share.
  • The current share price cannot provide decent returns. Together with exchange rate risk, potential failure risks, etc., there’s no need for investors to take risks at this share price level.

New Gonow Recreational Vehicles Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • New Gonow Recreational Vehicles (NGRV HK) is looking to raise US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunner on the deal is Huatai International.
  • New Gonow Recreational Vehicles (NGRV) is a recreational vehicle (RV) platform with an extensive presence in Australasia that designs, develops, manufactures and sells bespoke towable RVs.
  • According to Frost & Sullivan (F&S), the firm held the second-largest market share in Australasia’s RV industry in terms of 2023 sales volume.

Morning Views Asia: Meituan

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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