Category

China

Daily Brief China: Canvest Environmental Protection Group, China Traditional Chinese Medicine, SHEIN, ICBC (H), Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Luxshare Precision Industry, GoodWe Technologies , Cathay Pacific Airways, Dobot, BYD and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Canvest Environmental (1381 HK): Possible Privatisation at HK$4.90
  • Merger Arb Mondays (08 Jul) – China TCM, L’Occitane, A8 Media, GA Pack, Asia Cement, Hollysys, MMA
  • SHEIN/Temu/AliExpress: As US Mulls Reforming “De Minimis” Rules, EU Could Take Similar Action
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 5 Jul 2024); SOE Bank and SOE Petro-Energy Flows Dominate
  • Shanghai Henlius Biotech Update (2696.HK) – The Story Behind Privatization
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 5 July 2024): Finance, Consumer, IT Sold, Utilities Bought
  • STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Outright Adds Outperforming Outright Deletes
  • Cathay Pacific (293 HK, BUY, TP:HKD):
  • Shenzhen Yuejiang Technology IPO Preview: Dobot Files to List IPO on Hong Kong Stock Exchange
  • China Consumption Weekly (8 Jul 2024): BYD, Seres, Tesla, Microsoft, XHS, Mixue


Canvest Environmental (1381 HK): Possible Privatisation at HK$4.90

By Arun George

  • Grandblue Environment Co A (600323 CH) disclosed a potential pre-conditional privatisation of Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK) at HK$4.90 per share, a 20.7% premium to the last close price. 
  • Completing the capital injection from SOE entities into the offeror is a precondition. Grandblue also proposes that the controlling shareholder roll over 7.23% of its effective 44.75% stake. 
  • While not a knockout bid, the offer is reasonable. Shareholders with blocking stakes should support a binding proposal. Timing is the key risk. 


SHEIN/Temu/AliExpress: As US Mulls Reforming “De Minimis” Rules, EU Could Take Similar Action

By Daniel Hellberg

  • EU, like the US, is considering lowering “de minimis” import threshold, soon
  • Lowering import value thresholds or raising reporting requirements could make SHEIN/Temu/AliExpress goods more expensive, and fulfillment more onerous
  • Threat of “de minimis” changes coming just as SHEIN reportedly seeks an IPO

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 5 Jul 2024); SOE Bank and SOE Petro-Energy Flows Dominate

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$10.9bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Banks were a big buy.
  • The more I watch, the more I think the last few months have had serious national team buying of banks and energy, perhaps ahead of shareholder return policy changes.
  • But valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows – national team and otherwise.

Shanghai Henlius Biotech Update (2696.HK) – The Story Behind Privatization

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Fosun’s preferred arrangement for Henlius is to list the Company in A-shares.Since IPO in A-shares failed and Henlius has begun to generate profits, Fosun finally feels the need for privatization.
  • Due to its “flaws”, undervaluation of Henlius in the Hong Kong stock market is difficult to fundamentally change. So, for conservative/cautious investors, Fosun’s one-time acquisition at a 30% premium is attractive.
  • The Potential Share Alternative Offer seems a good option, but it is uncertain whether investors are still willing to believe in Fosun’s “good story” – the future re-listing is uncertain.

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 5 July 2024): Finance, Consumer, IT Sold, Utilities Bought

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 13.9bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND bought utilities and raw materials and sold everything else, especially consumer names. Appliances remain on the sell side.
  • It is notable that net flows as a percentage of value traded are clearly “short gamma”, which is to say, sector underperformers are being sold, not bought.

STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Outright Adds Outperforming Outright Deletes

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the September rebalance ends 30 July. We expect the changes to be announced 30 August with the implementation taking place after the close on 13 September.
  • We forecast 6 changes for the index, including migrations between the STAR 100 Index and the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX).
  • Excluding the migrations, the potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes since the start of the calendar year and there could be further outperformance over the next few weeks.

Cathay Pacific (293 HK, BUY, TP:HKD):

By Mohshin Aziz

  • Operations are on track with earlier guidance given during FY23 results, loads and yields are healthy, with UK and North American performing better than expected  
  • Will buyback and cancel remaining 97.7m preference shares for a sum of HKD10b by end of July 2024. Shareholder dilution has been avoided  
  • Cathay Pacific is a value BUY, our target price of HK$9.90 (+24% UPSIDE) implies 10x FY2024 PE, parity multiple against its arch-rival Singapore Airlines (SIA SP) 

Shenzhen Yuejiang Technology IPO Preview: Dobot Files to List IPO on Hong Kong Stock Exchange

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Shenzhen Yuejiang Technology (Dobot), a China-based cobot company, filed for a Hong Kong IPO. Cobots are robots with operational robotic arms intended for collaboration within a shared space.
  • Dobot was backed by CICC, CRRC VC, Greenpine Growth, Qianhai Equity, and China Internet Investment Fund, among others. The company was founded in 2015 in Shenzhen, PRC.
  • The offering may attract significant investor interest after South Korea’s robotics company Doosan Robotics could raise ~$318M in October 2023.

China Consumption Weekly (8 Jul 2024): BYD, Seres, Tesla, Microsoft, XHS, Mixue

By Ming Lu

  • BYD’s sales volume increased by 35% YoY in June and by 39% YoY in 2Q24.
  • Tesla’s Model Y is on the state-owned corporation procurement catalogs.
  • Microsoft plans to close its franchised store chain in China due to the weak demand for Surface.

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Daily Brief China: L’Occitane, ESR Group , ASM Pacific Technology, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences , JD Logistics and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Sermsuk, L’Occitane, Shinko Electric, MMA Offshore, Hollysys
  • Weekly Deals Digest (07 Jul) – ESR, L’Occitane, Hollysys, Aisin, Honda, Sanil, Shift Up, Timee
  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep 24: Reference Period Over; One Change Likely; US$733mn One-Way
  • Asian Dividend Gems: Chow Tai Fook Jewellery
  • China Healthcare Weekly (July.7) – MNCs’ Next Move In Licensing Deals, Topchoice, Junshi’s Trouble
  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Final Ranks and Updated Flow Expectations


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Sermsuk, L’Occitane, Shinko Electric, MMA Offshore, Hollysys

By David Blennerhassett


Weekly Deals Digest (07 Jul) – ESR, L’Occitane, Hollysys, Aisin, Honda, Sanil, Shift Up, Timee

By Arun George


Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep 24: Reference Period Over; One Change Likely; US$733mn One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
  • The reference period for the September 2024 index rebal event is now complete. In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for index changes.
  • Our current estimates suggest one-way flows due to index changes and capping could be around US$733mn but that could change by early September 2024.

Asian Dividend Gems: Chow Tai Fook Jewellery

By Douglas Kim

  • Chow Tai Fook Jewellery’s shares are down 28.2% YTD, sharply underperforming the Hang Seng Index which is up 6% in the same period. We believe this divergence is excessive. 
  • Chow Tai Fook’s dividend yield averaged 4.8% from FY20 to FY24. Its annual dividend payout averaged 107% in the same period.
  • Chai Tai Fook is currently trading at attractive valuations. It is trading at P/E of 10.1x, EV/EBITDA of 7.5x, and P/B of 2.9x based on FY25 consensus earnings estimates. 

China Healthcare Weekly (July.7) – MNCs’ Next Move In Licensing Deals, Topchoice, Junshi’s Trouble

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • For all licensing cooperation with MNCs, we recommend that investors wait to see what MNCs’ next move is before deciding whether the cooperation is really promising.
  • Topchoice showed good business growth in 24Q2. Our biggest concern for Topchoice is that the unit price per customer may further decrease in the future, thereby affecting revenue/profit growth.
  • Junshi’s sales growth picked up in 24Q1, but concerns on Junshi persist. We don’t think Junshi is undervalued and its valuation should be lower than that of peers.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Final Ranks and Updated Flow Expectations

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
  • In mid-June 2024, we had two expected ADDs and DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event and they remain unchanged even after the end of the reference period.
  • However, our capping flow expectations continue to change as the pro-forma post-rebalance weights change with share prices. In this insight, we have provided our latest flow estimates.

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Daily Brief China: SHEIN, J&T Global Express , Hang Seng Index and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • SHEIN: Teaming up with Reliance Retail to Re-Enter India. A Win-Win Move
  • HK CEO & Director Dealings (5th Jul 2024): J&T Global Express, Flat Glass, Lifetech Scientific, PCCW
  • EQD | Will the HSI Keep Falling In July?


SHEIN: Teaming up with Reliance Retail to Re-Enter India. A Win-Win Move

By Devi Subhakesan

  • SHEIN’s fast-fashion apparel is set to hit India through Reliance Retail’s platforms, marking a major comeback after the 2020 ban.
  • This partnership could be a win-win, tapping into India’s booming fashion demand and offering Shein access to the world’s largest youth market, ahead of its proposed IPO.
  • With Shein’s affordable styles and Reliance’s extensive network, this alliance targets the youth market, challenging brands like Tata Group’s Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) owned Zudio.

HK CEO & Director Dealings (5th Jul 2024): J&T Global Express, Flat Glass, Lifetech Scientific, PCCW

By David Blennerhassett


EQD | Will the HSI Keep Falling In July?

By Nico Rosti

  • After an explosive rally in April, the Hang Seng Index has been in a downtrend since mid-May, many are wondering where the index is headed next.
  • July 2024, based on our seasonal pattern analysis, does not have a great chance to close higher (it could, but the odds are not good).
  • If the index goes down in the next 2 weeks, buy the 17600-17300 price area.

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Daily Brief China: Samvardhana Motherson Automotive Systems Group BV, Hozon New Energy Automobile Co Ltd and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Road King Infrastructure, Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd
  • Hozon New Energy Automobile Pre-IPO Tearsheet


Morning Views Asia: Road King Infrastructure, Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Hozon New Energy Automobile Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Hozon New Energy Automobile Co Ltd (1850123D CH) seeks to raise up to US$1bn in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by CICC, MS, Citic, ABCI and CMBI.
  • Hozon New Energy Automobile (HNEA) is a NEV technology company which sells cars under the Neta brand. The prices of its vehicles generally range between US$15,000 to US$45,000. 
  • The firm has been expanding into the more profitable mid-to-high-end market segment and replicating its local success in overseas markets.

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Daily Brief China: ESR Group , Shougang Fushan Resources, China Vanke , UGenix Biotech and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • ESR Group (1821 HK): Consortium’s Expansion Talks Suggest Progress
  • Fushan Energy (639 HK): Coking Coal Prices To Strengthen With Anglo Accident
  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust
  • Pre-IPO UGenix Biotech – Future Growth Potential Is Highly Uncertain


ESR Group (1821 HK): Consortium’s Expansion Talks Suggest Progress

By Arun George

  • Bloomberg reports that the bidding consortium is in talks to bring in other partners, such as QIA, PIF, and CPP Investment Board, to aid in privatising ESR Group (1821 HK).
  • Warburg Pincus and OMERS have blocking stakes for a Cayman scheme. Warburg Pincus is seemingly supportive, and the consortium’s expansion talks suggest confidence in meeting OMERS’ price expectations.
  • Our best guess is that an offer is around HK$14.00. ESR’s current valuation is undemanding, with its forward EV/EBITDA multiple at a 40% discount compared to the median peers’ multiple.

Fushan Energy (639 HK): Coking Coal Prices To Strengthen With Anglo Accident

By Sameer Taneja

  • Shougang Fushan Resources (639 HK) is a play on strengthening coking coal prices with downside protection due to its net cash reserves of 1.1 bn USD (Vs. Mkt Cap 2.1).
  • At the lower end of the cost curve, its EBITDA margins have averaged 54% (last 16 years), with its lowest EBITDA number of 19% in FY15.
  • With an 80% payout, the company trades at a trailing yield of 9% (the average spot price assumed is 1900 RMB/ton).

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Pre-IPO UGenix Biotech – Future Growth Potential Is Highly Uncertain

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Although UGenix is a genetic technology company focusing on prenatal testing/precision oncology, it was the large-scale COVID-19 testing demand that made UGenix’s overall revenue grow rapidly, which, however, is unsustainable.
  • NIPT market size is far less than expected. The clinical need for NGS has not developed as rigid demand. Restrictions on companion diagnosis pricing indicate market space would be compressed.
  • The business of both prenatal testing and precision oncology are not easy. Due to uncertain commercialization outlook/profitability and other negative factors, UGenix’s stock price after IPO could underperform.

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Daily Brief China: China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Stella International, ASM Pacific Technology, Chenqi Technology Limited and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • China TCM (570.HK) Update – Behind The Share Price Plunge and Prospects for Privatization Progress
  • HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September
  • HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: ASM Pacific (522) Could Replace Ping An Health (1833); US$1bn Trade
  • Chenqi Technology IPO – Smallest in Scale, Sentiment Might Not Be the Best


China TCM (570.HK) Update – Behind The Share Price Plunge and Prospects for Privatization Progress

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The slow progress of privatization is related to recent high-level changes in CNPGC. Decisions on SOE deals with “strategic purpose” require careful considerations, not based on “one leader’s personal preferences”.
  • Based on public information, we cannot find convincing reason to prove that CNPGC has changed its mind.There’re rumors that China TCM’s privatization is still considered important project on the agenda.
  • China TCM’s has strong fundamentals to support valuation. If there is no announcement, the privatization process is expected to proceed as usual, and we continue to wait for the voting.  

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

By Brian Freitas

  • We see 37 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 25 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September.
  • We expect 32 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 24 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
  • There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: ASM Pacific (522) Could Replace Ping An Health (1833); US$1bn Trade

By Brian Freitas


Chenqi Technology IPO – Smallest in Scale, Sentiment Might Not Be the Best

By Ethan Aw

  • Chenqi Technology Limited (CT HK) is looking to raise up to US$174m in its Hong Kong IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$300m.
  • Chenqi Technology (Chenqi) is a mobility technology and service company in China, founded by the GAC Group and Tencent.
  • In our previous notes, we talked about the company’s historical performance and PHIP updates. In this note, we undertake a quick peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.

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Daily Brief China: L’Occitane, SenseTime Group , Agricultural Bank Of China, CPMC Holdings, APT Medical , Chenqi Technology Limited, Taste Gourmet, Shanghai Voicecomm Information Technology, Will Semiconductor Shan, Robosense Technology and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • L’Occitane (973 HK): Conditional Offer Opens
  • HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 June 2024); Still a Net Buy, but Less Strong. Financials Dominate
  • CPMC Holdings (906.HK) Privatization – Some New Information Worth the Attention
  • STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes & Over US$1.2bn to Trade
  • Chenqi Technology Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Sales Growth Accelerated but Sustainability in Question
  • Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – July 2024
  • Shanghai Voicecomm IPO Preview: Superior Growth Profile and Collaboration With Baidu on ERNIE Bot
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 28 June 2024): BIG Consumer Name Selling Again
  • Robosense IPO Lock-Up Expiry – US$2.8bn Lockup Expiry for 99% of the Stock, CCASS Movement


L’Occitane (973 HK): Conditional Offer Opens

By Arun George

  • The L’Occitane (973 HK) IFA opines that Reinold Geiger’s conditional voluntary cash (HK$34.00) or scrip offer (10 rollover shares for each share, subject to a cap) is fair and reasonable.
  • Irrevocable/Letters of support have nudged lower from 49.83% (17 June) to 47.66% of disinterested shares due to Southeastern Asset Management selling its shares. 
  • Nevertheless, the scrip option, an attractive offer and no vocal opposition should facilitate achieving the minimum acceptance condition. At the last close, the gross spread was 2.4%.

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September

By Brian Freitas


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 June 2024); Still a Net Buy, but Less Strong. Financials Dominate

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$9.3bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Banks were a big buy.
  • It is not clear how much of this is H/A discounts, expected dividend tax removal, shareholder return KPIs for SOE CEOs, upcoming Third Plenum policy, or national team buying…
  • But valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows – national team and otherwise.

CPMC Holdings (906.HK) Privatization – Some New Information Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • ORG purchased 27% of CPMC’s shares at HK$6/share in 2015.After about eight years, Baosteel’s Offer Price was only HK$6.87/share. The annualized return rate was low, which obviously cannot satisfy ORG.
  • Baosteel and CPMC have been in talks for a long time – There may have been some “tacit agreement” between the two parties. The approval process is smooth so far.
  • For acquisitions/consolidation between SOEs, private enterprises usually have limited chances of winning.ORG has financial pressure and the approval process face uncertainties. There would be more negotiations among CPMC, ORG, Baosteel.

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes & Over US$1.2bn to Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the September rebalance ends 31 July. We expect the changes to be announced 30 August with the implementation taking place after the close on 13 September.
  • We expect the index committee to continue using a 6-month minimum listing history resulting in two changes to the index.
  • One-Way turnover is estimated at 3.5% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 4.5bn (US$618m). Passive trackers will need to trade 4-8x ADV on the index changes.

Chenqi Technology Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Sales Growth Accelerated but Sustainability in Question

By Ethan Aw

  • Chenqi Technology Limited (CT HK) is looking to raise US$130m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$300m.
  • Chenqi Technology (Chenqi) is a mobility technology and service company in China, founded by the GAC Group and Tencent.
  • In our previous note, we talked about the company’s historical performance. In this note, we talk about its PHIP updates.

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – July 2024

By Sameer Taneja


Shanghai Voicecomm IPO Preview: Superior Growth Profile and Collaboration With Baidu on ERNIE Bot

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Shanghai Voicecomm Information Technology Co., an IT solution provider for enterprise-level users in China, plans to price its IPO by July 10, 2024 and raise ~HK$664M.
  • CICC is leading the offering in Hong Kong and the IPO is expected to be priced at HK$152.10 per H share, implying a market cap of ~HK$5.4B or ~$690M.
  • Cornerstone investors have agreed to acquire ~1.8M H shares, representing 41% of the offer shares or ~5% of the total outstanding shares.

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 28 June 2024): BIG Consumer Name Selling Again

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 11.8bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND bought utilities and raw materials and sold everything else, especially consumer names. Appliances remain on the sell side.
  • It is notable that net flows as a percentage of value traded are clearly “short gamma”, which is to say, sector underperformers are being sold, not bought. 

Robosense IPO Lock-Up Expiry – US$2.8bn Lockup Expiry for 99% of the Stock, CCASS Movement

By Sumeet Singh

  • Robosense Technology (2498 HK) raised around US$126m in its Hong Kong IPO in Jan 2024. The lockup on its shareholders will expire soon.
  • The company provides LiDAR and perception solutions to its customers. As of March 2024, it had design wins for mass production of LiDAR products with 22 automotive OEMs and suppliers.
  • In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.

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Daily Brief China: Shanghai Henlius Biotech , China Resources Medical, Tencent, Perfect Medical Health, Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical, China Water Affairs, Metalpha Technology Holding Lt and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (01 Jul) – Henlius, China TCM, GA Pack, CPMC, Asia Cement, Great Eastern
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.30) – TCM Companies Witness Soaring Costs, Rising Stars in ADC, 1515.HK
  • China Consumption Weekly (1 Jul 2024): Douyin, Green Tea, Alibaba, Tencent, Haidilao
  • Perfect Medical (1830 HK): Resilient FY24 And 12.5% Trailing Dividend Yield
  • Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical (300573.CH)-Looking Forward to a Leap in Valuation and Rich Dividends
  • Morning Views Asia: China Water Affairs, Health And Happiness (H&H)
  • Metalpha (MATH) – Sunday, Mar 31, 2024



China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.30) – TCM Companies Witness Soaring Costs, Rising Stars in ADC, 1515.HK

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Investors should be aware of the increasing prices of TCM raw materials, which could lead to fluctuations in profit margins of TCM companies. Investors should prepare for these potential impacts.
  • After years of “fast-follow”, we’ve finally seen products from Chinese pharmaceutical companies stand at the center of the stage for the first time in the new generation of ADC.
  • China Resources Medical’s profitability outlook is not promising due to issues within the Chinese healthcare system. The bottom line is P/B above 1 and P/E above 10x.

China Consumption Weekly (1 Jul 2024): Douyin, Green Tea, Alibaba, Tencent, Haidilao

By Ming Lu

  • Douyin’ GMV increased by 300% YoY in the “June 18” sales season.
  • The revenue of a pre-IPO restaurant chain, Green Tea, increased by 55% in 2023.
  • Alibaba’s supermarket chain, Freshippo, opened 12 new stores in June.

Perfect Medical (1830 HK): Resilient FY24 And 12.5% Trailing Dividend Yield

By Sameer Taneja

  • Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK) reported flat revenue/profit growth for FY24 due to a weak Q4 that plagued the entire HK consumer space. H2FY24  revenue/profit growth was -6.3%/-12.5%
  • The company paid a generous dividend of 31.5 cents for FY24 (vs. 30.0 cents), resulting in a 12.5% dividend yield.
  • We will follow up with more details after the earnings call and presentation. 

Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical (300573.CH)-Looking Forward to a Leap in Valuation and Rich Dividends

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Xingqi’s 0.01% atropine sulfate eye drops got approved for marketing this March, which is expected to monopolize the domestic market for at least 2.5-3 years, and enjoy higher gross margin.
  • Peak sales of 0.01% atropine sulfate eye drops would reach RMB5 billion at least. Together with other products, Xingqi’s total revenue would reach at least RMB6 billion in the future.
  • Due to attractive dividend policy, this stock is worth holding for the long term.Xingqi’s market value could even reach RMB50 billion if the sales exclusivity period is longer than expected. 

Morning Views Asia: China Water Affairs, Health And Happiness (H&H)

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Metalpha (MATH) – Sunday, Mar 31, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Metalpha is a small-cap Chinese supply chain company that has transitioned into an OTC underwriter focused on crypto derivatives through a reverse-merger.
  • Despite being one of the smallest market cap crypto companies, it is not perceived as a “crypto” play by investors leading to low trading volume and lack of visibility.
  • As the company gains recognition and the team continues to deliver results, it is expected to see a significant increase in valuation, potentially offering 4-17x returns to shareholders in the next 24-36 months.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief China: China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Polestar Automotive Holding UK, Tencent Music, S.F. Holding and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Deals Digest (30 Jun) – China TCM, Henlius, Midea RE, MMG, Aisin, Sanil, Shift Up
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: TCM, Henlius Bio, Mideal Real Estate, Malaysia Airports, S Line, Best World
  • Polestar Automotive Holding UK: A Tale Of An Enhanced Product Mix and Margin Improvement Strategy! – Major Drivers
  • Tencent Music Entertainment Group: How Are They Enhancing User Engagement through Artificial Intelligence? – Major Drivers
  • SF Holding Pre-IPO: Dominance in Domestic Time-Definite (Air) Express Is a Durable Differentiator


Weekly Deals Digest (30 Jun) – China TCM, Henlius, Midea RE, MMG, Aisin, Sanil, Shift Up

By Arun George


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: TCM, Henlius Bio, Mideal Real Estate, Malaysia Airports, S Line, Best World

By David Blennerhassett


Polestar Automotive Holding UK: A Tale Of An Enhanced Product Mix and Margin Improvement Strategy! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Polestar presented a mixed but broadly positive financial picture in the third quarter of 2023.
  • The company, known for its focus on electric vehicles, reported record third-quarter deliveries of 13,976 units, marking a significant 51% increase from the previous year.
  • This robust performance can be attributed to a positive product and channel mix and the initial rollout of the Polestar 2’s model year ’24, illustrating a strong consumer demand for Polestar’s offerings.

Tencent Music Entertainment Group: How Are They Enhancing User Engagement through Artificial Intelligence? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Tencent Music Entertainment Group, a leading player in China’s music streaming industry, started the year 2024 with some substantial financial and operational achievements, reflecting its continued emphasis on a dual-engine strategy of content richness and platform optimization.
  • However, not all indicators were uniformly positive, revealing certain challenges and strategic pivots.
  • On the upside, Tencent Music reported a marked increase in its subscriber base, adding a record 6.8 million net subscribers during the quarter, which pushes the total count to 113.5 million music-paying users.

SF Holding Pre-IPO: Dominance in Domestic Time-Definite (Air) Express Is a Durable Differentiator

By Daniel Hellberg

  • SF Holding’s time-definite express service differentiates it from Chinese rivals
  • We believe SF dominates China’s domestic inter-city air express segment
  • High exposure to air service mostly beneficial, with few risks, in our view

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Daily Brief China: China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Brilliance China Automotive, China Merchants China Direct Investments, Oriental Watch, Atour Lifestyle Holdings, Asia High Yield Bond Index, New World Development and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • TCM (570 HK): Where’s The Floor?
  • Brilliance China (1114 HK): Reversing Out of Passive Portfolios
  • CMCDI (133 HK): Buybacks And Management Fees Into Focus
  • Oriental Watch FY24: Weaker H2, Value Intact But Outlook Challenging
  • [Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$36) Target Price Change]: 618-Commerce Sales Set a New Record
  • Bond Market Monitor: No Rate Hikes
  • Morning Views Asia: New World Development, Softbank Group


TCM (570 HK): Where’s The Floor?

By David Blennerhassett

  • Just plain ugly. China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) (“TCM”) fell 11.7% yesterday. It’s down another 7.9%, on large volume, as I type.  The stock is now ~35% below terms
  • Depending on who you talk to, the sudden move was triggered by a couple of event pods dumping stock; or the incoming CNPGC chairman is not supportive. Or perhaps both. 
  • Since rumours surfaced early Feb as to an Offer, a basket of TCM’s peers are up 8% on average. The HSI is up 15%. TCM’s downside from here appears limited.

Brilliance China (1114 HK): Reversing Out of Passive Portfolios

By Brian Freitas

  • Brilliance China Automotive (1114 HK) is up 220% on a total return basis since we first published our insight in August 2023.
  • The company paid a special dividend in April this year and will pay a large special dividend of HK$4.3/share going ex-div on 3 July.
  • The resultant drop in market cap will result in deletion of the stock from large global passive portfolios at the close on 3 July.

CMCDI (133 HK): Buybacks And Management Fees Into Focus

By David Blennerhassett

  • The recent news on China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK) was director Elizabeth Kan narrowly getting re-elected. Of interest, ISS recommended shareholders vote AGAINST. Glass Lewis was FOR re-election.
  • The key takeaway here is that the majority of the minorities want change. The next development may occur in the lead up to the management agreement renewal in November. 
  • In addition, Argyle Street Management, CMSCI’s key shareholder activist, is also requesting the company buy back 20% of shares outstanding at 90% of NAV. 

Oriental Watch FY24: Weaker H2, Value Intact But Outlook Challenging

By Sameer Taneja

  • Oriental Watch (398 HK) reported revenue/profits down 2%/15% YoY for the full year (vs our expectation of 10%). H2 revenue/profitability fell 12%/22% YoY due to a weak Q4. 
  • Cash and investments fell from 1.1 bn to 920 mn HKD, owing to dividend payments, increased inventories, and reduced payables.  Cash represents 55% of market capitalization. 
  • The company maintains a 100% dividend payout, but dividends declined in line with earnings to 51.5 cents (FY23: 60 cents), representing a 15% dividend yield. 

[Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$36) Target Price Change]: 618-Commerce Sales Set a New Record

By Eric Wen

  • Atour recorded steep product sales growth during 618. We raised our C2Q24 revenue by 7.5% and full year by 5.1%, driven by (1) stronger pillow sales during the 618 promotions; 
  • Thanks to retail, Atour’s RevPAR after including retail sales maintained positive growth of 1.7% YoY, although pure hotel RevPAR dropped 2.9% YoY due to a decline in hotel price.
  • We raise TP by US$1 to US$36/ADS and keep the rating as BUY, factoring in the strong growth momentum of Atour’s retail business.

Bond Market Monitor: No Rate Hikes

By Warut Promboon

  • As we are entering the second half of 2024, inflation has remained sticky as expected.
  • The lingering fear of a global recession has been mitigating rising shipping and production costs and, as a result, kept inflation in check.
  • We see more opportunities in selected Chinese bonds in industries away from property and local government financing vehicle (LGFV) sectors and believe non-Asia emerging bonds offer better value.

Morning Views Asia: New World Development, Softbank Group

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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