Category

China

Daily Brief China: Ant Group, Kuaishou Technology, Shui On Land, Sunny Optical Technology Group, ZTO Express Cayman and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Ant Group Completes Microloan Business Reshuffle
  • [Kuaishou (1024 HK, BUY, TP HK$81) TP Change]: Prime Beneficiary of Playlet Induced Traffic
  • Shui On Land – Earnings Flash – FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Sunny Optical – Earnings Flash – FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • [ZTO Express (ZTO US, BUY, TP US$24) Target Price Change]: Two Trends, Both Are Favorable to ZTO


Ant Group Completes Microloan Business Reshuffle

By Caixin Global

  • Chinese fintech giant Ant Group Co. Ltd. has completed the reshuffle of its consumer lending businesses Huabei and Jiebei, wrapping up a years-long, government-driven overhaul, a person close to the matter told Caixin.
  • Ant’s two wholly owned small loan business units, the operators of Huabei and Jiebei, have fully exited the businesses during the past year.
  • The two brands have been incorporated into Chongqing Ant Consumer Finance Co. Ltd. (CACF), a subsidiary set up in 2021 that is 50% owned by Ant, according to the person close to CACF.

[Kuaishou (1024 HK, BUY, TP HK$81) TP Change]: Prime Beneficiary of Playlet Induced Traffic

By Ying Pan

  • Kuaishou reported C4Q23 revenue, IFRS OP, and IFRS net income in line, 31%, and 51% vs.  our estimates; and in line, 43%, and 67% vs. consensus.
  • The significant profit beat was mainly due to the rich content supply on the platform that led to organic traffic influx, resulted in marketing costs reductions. 
  • We raised our TP by HK$2 to HK$81, implies 20X PE, vs. current trading at 13X PE for 2025.

Shui On Land – Earnings Flash – FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Shui On Land’s (SOL) FY 2023 results were slightly weak, in our view. Positively, the company’s rental income increased moderately, supported by contributions from new commercial assets and China’s re-opening from the pandemic. Recurring operating income from rentals and property management covered 0.8x of interest expense. In addition, the gross margin remained very strong, even as revenue from the property development segment was halved on account of lower sales and deliveries.

Negatively, SOL’s net debt climbed 14% from FYE 2022, owing to lower cash collections and its acquisition of a Shanghai project in April 2023. Moreover, the company’s increased asset encumbrance would reduce its financial flexibility. Liquidity is weak, considering the thin unrestricted cash balance and substantial refinancing needs over the next 12 months. That said, the company might be able to pledge or dispose of more assets to raise cash.


Sunny Optical – Earnings Flash – FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Sunny Optical has released its FY 2023 numbers, which were weak but in line with expectations. Revenue declined 4.6% y-o-y to CNY 31.7 bn, due to lower shipments of handset-related products. Gross profit tumbled c. 30% to CNY 4.6 bn, with the margin shrinking to 14.5%. OCF plunged 64% to CNY 2.7 bn, while capex decreased slightly. FCF was therefore positive, albeit significantly lower. That said, the financial risk profile and liquidity remain healthy, supported by a large net cash position.

We believe the industry operating environment will stabilise. The company marked seven consecutive months of double-digit shipment volume growth in February 2024, indicating that the recovery in the smartphone market is continuing. We expect shipments to stabilise at this level, which will represent a robust increase from the FY 2023 numbers. We project positive revenue and earnings growth in FY 2024.


[ZTO Express (ZTO US, BUY, TP US$24) Target Price Change]: Two Trends, Both Are Favorable to ZTO

By Eric Wen

  • ZTO reported C4Q23 top-line, GAAP EBIT, and non-GAAP net income (2.2%), (3.8%), and in-line vs. cons., respectively;
  • There are two concurrent trends in the last-mile market: (1) improved service quality, and (2) smaller parcel sizes. Both are favorable to ZTO, in our view;
  • ZTO announced new shareholder return plans, which we estimate could return US$ 1.4bn to investors in 2024 for a 7.7% yield;

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Daily Brief China: Pop Mart International Group L, IntelliCentrics Global Holding, NetEase , Xiaomi Corp, Kuaishou Technology, BaishanCloud, Road King Infrastructure and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Pop Mart (9992 HK):  International Expansion Is For Real
  • IntelliCentrics (6819 HK): Clean, Illiquid “Arb”
  • NetEase: Positive Technical Analysis Signals
  • Xiaomi Corp – Earnings Flash – FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • KS / Kuaishou (1024 HK): 4Q23, Historical High Operating Profit
  • Baishan Cloud IPO Preview: Break-Even Is Likely To Be Achieved in 2024
  • Road King – Earnings Flash – FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics


Pop Mart (9992 HK):  International Expansion Is For Real

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • The thesis for Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) is the successful expansion of its international business, which made up 13% of sales in 1H23 but is growing exponentially. 
  • This has been proved true in the latest announced 2023 results, with a 135% growth in 2023 for the international business, and a further >100% growth guidance for 2024.
  • The company is trading at 24x 2024 earnings, assuming a 35% net profit growth in 2024. 

IntelliCentrics (6819 HK): Clean, Illiquid “Arb”

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on 9th Feb 2024, healthcare technology platform IntelliCentrics Global Holding (6819 HK) announced the proposed disposal of its key operations to Symplr Software Holdings for at least US$246.5mn.
  • Upon completion of the sale, IntelliCentrics will declare a special dividend, then seek a listing withdrawal. A key condition to the sale was FTC/DOJ approval. That is now satisfied. 
  • The sale/dividend/delisting requires a Scheme-like vote, with 72.1% of shares out supportive. This is a super-clean pseudo arb. Pushback? Very illiquid.

NetEase: Positive Technical Analysis Signals

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • Despite a disappointing 4Q2023 earnings report, NetEase (9999 HK) remains firmly amid an earnings upgrade cycle.
  • With NetEase touching on being oversold, near-term momentum indicators are displaying bullish signals.
  • NetEase currently trades more than one standard deviation below its rolling 5-year historic average PE ratio.

Xiaomi Corp – Earnings Flash – FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Xiaomi Corp’s FY 2023 results were better than expected in our view, with much-improved profitability. The balance sheet remains healthy, and liquidity is sound. We expect the company to continue performing well, driven by a projected recovery in the smartphone market, Xiaomi’s premiumisation strategy and strong demand in overseas markets. Global smartphone shipments remain weak, but may be bottoming out. We believe the company is well-positioned for future growth.

The smart EV development has drained less cash than we had expected so far. Xiaomi has been able to fund the investment using internal cash flow. Pricing for the SU7 (scheduled to be launched next week) has not been disclosed. The EV market in China is extremely competitive, with over 150 carmakers. Apple has exited the EV business due to a lack of competitive advantage, and Xiaomi may face the same issue. While it is unclear if Xiaomi will be successful in the EV business, we believe it may not be as detrimental to the credit as originally feared.


KS / Kuaishou (1024 HK): 4Q23, Historical High Operating Profit

By Ming Lu

  • Operating profit and its margin reached historical high in 4Q23.
  • Monthly active user base continued to expand, which is rare for other apps.
  • GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) of the live broadcasting sales increased rapidly by 29% YoY in 4Q23.

Baishan Cloud IPO Preview: Break-Even Is Likely To Be Achieved in 2024

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Baishan Cloud, China’s independent edge cloud service provider, filed to go public in Hong Kong. CICC and investment bank Haitong are the lead underwriters in this offering.
  • Founded in 2015, BaishanCloud (1568617D HK) is led by its CEO and Founder, Mr. HUO Tao, and a highly experienced founding team.
  • I believe the company will achieve a break-even this year, coupled with a strong international expansion, potential revenue acceleration and gross margin improvement as the business continues to scale up.

Road King – Earnings Flash – FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Road King’s FY 2023 results were poor, with the company’s gross margin plunging to negative 5% (FY 2022: 17%). The EBITDA and net profit margins were negative 13% and negative 30%, respectively. While Road King has continued to reduce net debt, liquidity is poor. In addition, we view negatively the company’s downbeat statement of “significant debt repayment pressure due to a lack of refinancing channels”.  

We believe it is difficult to ascertain management’s willingness to honour repayments, amid the bleak business prospects. Road King has a small and dwindling land bank that might suffice for only another 1-2 years of development. Moreover, the negative gross margin suggests that the business is no longer profitable. In our view, this increases the risk that the company may opt for a holistic restructuring of the USD notes (which account for 65% of total debt) to reduce its debt load.

We move to “Not Recommended” from “Hold” on the ROADKG 6.7 ’24s. 


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Daily Brief China: Giordano International, IntelliCentrics Global Holding, Tencent, Akeso Biopharma Inc, Xtep International, PDD Holdings, Carote Ltd, Lufax Holding and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Giordano (709 HK): A Closer Look At The Shareholder Register Ahead Of The SGM
  • IntelliCentrics (6819 HK): Delisting and Special Dividend
  • Tencent (700 HK): 4Q23, Slower Growth, But Higher Margin, 37% Upside
  • Akeso Biopharma Placement (9926.HK) – Would Investors Be Willing to Take a Gamble?
  • Tencent 4Q2023: Gaming Declines Yet Again, Margins Have Further Upside
  • Akeso Inc Placement – A Small One to Digest, Momentum Has Been Strong
  • Xtep International (1368 HK):  Valuation Too Cheap For A >10% Growth Stock
  • PDD (PDD): 4Q23, Time for Low Price Goods, Revenue up by 123% YoY
  • Carote Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Quick Ideas #9


Giordano (709 HK): A Closer Look At The Shareholder Register Ahead Of The SGM

By David Blennerhassett

  • Last month, a Cheng family vehicle with 24.06% of Giordano (709 HK), requisitioned an SGM to remove CEO Peter Lau, and install Colin Currie as CEO, plus three other NEDs/INEDs.
  • That SGM will be held on the 3rd April. The director resolutions – both the removal and appointments – are “ordinary”, requiring a simple majority vote. 
  • The outcome will likely pivot off how the shareholders under Halcyon Securities will vote. So I dug a little deeper as to who these shareholders are, with some surprising results.  

IntelliCentrics (6819 HK): Delisting and Special Dividend

By Arun George

  • On 9 February, IntelliCentrics Global Holding (6819 HK) announced the disposal of most of its assets to symplr software. On 19 March, the antitrust condition was satisfied.
  • The consideration will be distributed to shareholders as a special dividend. The minimum and maximum special interim dividends are US$0.52 (HK$4.08) and US$0.55 (HK$4.30) per share.
  • The key condition is EGM shareholder approval. Due to the irrevocables from key shareholders, the EGM vote should comfortably pass. This is a done deal.

Tencent (700 HK): 4Q23, Slower Growth, But Higher Margin, 37% Upside

By Ming Lu

  • In 4Q23, Tencent experienced a one-digit growth, but its margin improved significantly.
  • We believe Tencent’s social networks will stop shrinking after the company sold movie assets to China Literature.
  • We believe the stock will have an upside of 37.5% and a price target of HK$397 for year end 2024. Buy.

Akeso Biopharma Placement (9926.HK) – Would Investors Be Willing to Take a Gamble?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Akeso’s product sales grew rapidly in 2023, mainly driven by off-label use of AK104. Since AK104’s commercialization potential on other indications was “overdrawn” in advance, sales growth would slow afterwards. 
  • The key investment logic of Akeso is whether/how much its BsAb pipelines would grab shares from PD-1. The high valuation has somewhat priced in AK112’s successful head-to-head trial with pembrolizumab.
  • If AK112 does beat Keytruda, valuation will reach a new level. If AK112 fails in critical clinical trials, it would cast a shadow on the entire BsAb pipeline of Akeso.

Tencent 4Q2023: Gaming Declines Yet Again, Margins Have Further Upside

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Tencent (700 HK) reported 4Q results today. Both revenues and OP increased 7.1% and 42.0% YoY, however, both revenue and OP fell below consensus estimates.
  • The company also announced an increase to 2023 dividends and more than doublethe size of the company’s share buyback in 2024 compared to 2023.
  • We expect Internet VAS to grow at single-digits in 2024, however, high-margin new products to help boost margins in 2024.

Akeso Inc Placement – A Small One to Digest, Momentum Has Been Strong

By Clarence Chu

  • Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926 HK) is looking to raise US$155m from its primary placement.
  • Proceeds from the deal would be geared towards R&D expenditure for its preclinical programs, expediting clinical trials, and towards commercializing its existing approved products.
  • Accounting for 3% of shares outstanding, and representing 5.7 days of its three month ADV, the deal would be a relatively small one for the firm to digest.

Xtep International (1368 HK):  Valuation Too Cheap For A >10% Growth Stock

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Xtep International (1368 HK) announced in-line 2023 results, with net profit up 12% yoy and sales up 11% yoy.  2024 outlook was also satisfactory. 
  • The company paid out 50% of its earnings in dividend, which amounted to a 5% dividend yield at current share price of HKD5.04.
  • The company is currently trading at 10x 2024 PE (assuming a conservative 10% net profit growth in 2024).

PDD (PDD): 4Q23, Time for Low Price Goods, Revenue up by 123% YoY

By Ming Lu

  • Both advertising revenue and commission revenue grew dramatically in 4Q23.
  • Chinese consumers are seeking low price goods, after the economy went weak.
  • PDD’s overseas brand, TEMU, is expanding rapidly in the U.S.

Carote Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Carote Ltd (CARO HK) is looking to raise around US$150m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are BNP Paribas, and CMB International.
  • Carote is a distributor of kitchenware products. Expanding its lineup of products, the firm aims to meet its customers’ varied kitchen scenarios and enhance their culinary experience.
  • Initially engaged to provide original equipment manufacturing (OEM) overseas, the firm has since ventured into the online retail sector, introducing kitchenware products under its own brand name “CAROTE”.

Quick Ideas #9

By Turtles all the way down

  • Another quick trade idea. A continuation of the China theme (see my last post for more info).  Lufax holdings (LU). Again courtesy of JohnTill on Stocktwits.
  • A Chinese lending company, lending out directly and providing a peer to peer lending platform for the Chinese market.
  • With Ping An being a ~41% shareholder.

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Daily Brief China: Swire Pacific (A), Sciclone Pharmaceuticals, Tencent, Sun Art Retail, Longfor Properties, West China Cement, WuXi AppTec, Taste Gourmet and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Swire Pac (19 HK): Flying High
  • SciClone Pharma (6600 HK): GL Capital Consortium Reload?
  • Tencent (700 HK): Gross Margins, Cost Cutting Likely to Be Focus Going into Q4 FY23 Results
  • SciClone Pharma (6600 HK): Privatisation Déjà Vu All over Again?
  • Sun Art (6808 HK):  Potential Divestiture By Alibaba Worth A Bet
  • Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, Azure Power Global Ltd, Greenko Energy Holdings
  • Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, Azure Power Global Ltd, Greenko Energy Holdings
  • West China Cement – Earnings Flash – FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • WuXi AppTec (2359.HK/603259.CH) 2023 Results – Time to Prepare for the Worst
  • Taste Gourmet (8371 HK): Earnings Preview FY24


Swire Pac (19 HK): Flying High

By David Blennerhassett


SciClone Pharma (6600 HK): GL Capital Consortium Reload?

By David Blennerhassett

  • A little over a year ago, shareholders approved Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK)‘s buyback, which lifted GL Capital’s holding to 31.63% from 28.09%, enabling creep provisions.
  • After the share price gained 14% yesterday, SciClone was suspended pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers before trading commenced this morning. Mmm.
  • GL Capital, together with CDH Investments, Ascendent Capital Partner, Ocean Falcon Limited, and Boying Investments Limited, took SciClone private in 2017. Time for another privatisation?

Tencent (700 HK): Gross Margins, Cost Cutting Likely to Be Focus Going into Q4 FY23 Results

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • Tencent is due to release FY23 results tomorrow morning after the HK close. The earnings call is scheduled for 14:00 SAST.
  • The market is expecting 1.8% QoQ revenue growth, 8.6% YoY. Strong QoQ revenue growth of 10% is expected for the advertising segment.
  • QoQ revenue growth for the gaming sector is expected to decline by 4.9%. Domestic gaming revenue is expected to fall by 7.6%, international gaming revenue expected to increase by 9.6%.

SciClone Pharma (6600 HK): Privatisation Déjà Vu All over Again?

By Arun George

  • After rising 14% on Monday, Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK) entered a trading halt “pending the release of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers.
  • SciClone US was listed on NASDAQ in March 1992 and was privatised in October 2017 by a GL Capital-led consortium. It was relisted on the HKEx on 3 March 2021.
  • A GL Capital-led consortium will likely once again lead the privatisation. An offer price at or slightly above the IPO price (HK$18.80) would be sufficient to get the vote up.

Sun Art (6808 HK):  Potential Divestiture By Alibaba Worth A Bet

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • According to public news two days ago, COFCO Group is rumored to be a potential suitor for Alibaba’s 78% stake in Sun Art Retail (6808 HK).
  • Alibaba wants to eventually get rid of the Sun Art stake, especially after Alibaba’s management change in late 2023.  
  • Given limited downside, I believe it is worth a bet on the uncertain timeline but certain intention of the eventual divestiture of Sun Art by Alibaba.

Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, Azure Power Global Ltd, Greenko Energy Holdings

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, Azure Power Global Ltd, Greenko Energy Holdings

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


West China Cement – Earnings Flash – FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

West China Cement’s (WCC) FY 2023 results were soft, but in line with expectations. The company’s profitability in Mainland China continued to weaken, albeit this was partly offset by rising sales volumes and ASP from its African operations. As a result, operating profit in Africa climbed above that for Mainland China for the first time, with the African segment accounting for 31% of total revenue and 74% of operating profit.

In our view, the key risk for investors is WCC’s seemingly relentless expansion in Africa, which is likely to further weaken its leverage. Moreover, we are concerned that further expansion in this region will fundamentally change WCC’s risk profile from a relatively stable infrastructure-led Chinese business to one that is highly exposed to event risks in frontier markets. The company’s African businesses could be exposed to higher geopolitical, regulatory and ESG risks, which are less well understood by investors.


WuXi AppTec (2359.HK/603259.CH) 2023 Results – Time to Prepare for the Worst

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • WuXi AppTec’s 2023 results were disappointing. The decline in performance in 23H2 was quite severe. 2024 performance guidance could be meaningless because the biggest concern now is the geopolitical conflicts.
  • If the bill is passed, valuation logic would completely change – not based on DCF/PE, but on PB, market value falling below RMB100 billion. We cannot rule out another privatisation.
  • We hope that WuXi AppTec can prepare contingency plans for the worst-case scenario that may occur, rather than simply denying or mitigating the impact of BIOSECURE Act on the Company

Taste Gourmet (8371 HK): Earnings Preview FY24

By Sameer Taneja

  • Taste Gourmet (8371 HK) will report its FY24 results in the third week of June. We estimate revenue/earnings growth of 38%/40% YoY. 
  • We expect the company to end FY24 with >180 mn HKD of net cash on the balance sheet, representing 32% of the mkt cap (9MFY23 cash 148 mn HKD)
  • Maintaining a 50% dividend payout ratio, we expect the company to declare a final DPS of 7 cents ( H1FY24 5.5 cents HKD), representing an 8.5% yield for FY24

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Daily Brief China: China Resources Beer Holdings, Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial, Health And Happiness (H&H) and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Cheers! Raise a Glass to China Resources Beer (0291.HK)
  • Pre-IPO Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial – High Profitability and Growth May Not Be Sustainable
  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Nickel Industries


Cheers! Raise a Glass to China Resources Beer (0291.HK)

By Rikki Malik

  • A liquid proxy for China’s recovering consumption (with no technology regulation risk)
  • A quality red chip company at a very reasonable valuation
  • Growing sales and margins as its premiumisation strategy is executed

Pre-IPO Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial – High Profitability and Growth May Not Be Sustainable

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Baicha Baidao’s business model is similar to MIXUE, but MIXUE has more heavy-asset model with own supply chain, while Baicha Baidao is more of a “transfer station” for raw materials.
  • Single store data of Baicha Baidao showed varying degrees of decline. It’s uncertain whether Baicha Baidao would maintain current market share/revenue growth/high gross margin in front of fierce homogeneous competition.
  • When Baicha Baidao submitted prospectus last year, its valuation was already about RMB18 billion.We think its valuation would be lower than MIXUE, close to Guming and higher than Auntea Jenny.

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Nickel Industries

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical, Tcl Multimedia Technology, Great Wall Motor, AviChina Industry & Technology H and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.15)- New Policy of Innovative Drug, TCM Formula Granules, Xingqi Pharma
  • TCL Electronics (1070.HK) – a Rising Star in the TV Business
  • China Consumption Weekly (18 Mar 2024): Great Wall, KE, Tuniu, Tuhu Car, Boss Zhipin, Weibo
  • AviChina Industry (2357 HK): Better Look Forward


China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.15)- New Policy of Innovative Drug, TCM Formula Granules, Xingqi Pharma

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • A document titled “Soliciting Opinions on the Implementation Plan for Supporting the Development of Innovative Drugs throughout the Whole Chain” would completely change the outlook/investment logic of China’s innovative drugs.
  • We predict that due to the early opening of TCM formula granules VBP in some provinces and intensifying competition, the market pattern of TCM formula granules would face reshaping.
  • After the atropine eye drops is approved by the NMPA, Xingqi’s performance growth will accelerate. Supported by favorable policies, its market value is expected to reach above RMB30 billion.

TCL Electronics (1070.HK) – a Rising Star in the TV Business

By Pyramids and Pagodas

  • TCL Electronics Limited (1070.HK ) (“TCL”), with a market cap of HKD 7.57 billion (USD 968 million), is not your ordinary Chinese TV manufacturer.
  • TCL focuses on mid-to-high end audio/video products like miniLED, QLED, Android, and smart TVs, ranking second in the global TV market behind Samsung.
  • The Company also produces air conditioners, refrigerators, smartphones, tablets, and smart home devices. A recent catch-up with the IR team at TCL’s Shenzhen Industrial Park Headquarters intrigued us and we decided to dig a bit deeper.

China Consumption Weekly (18 Mar 2024): Great Wall, KE, Tuniu, Tuhu Car, Boss Zhipin, Weibo

By Ming Lu

  • Great Wall Motor denied that many employees have resigned recently, but there many complaints from employees on social media.
  • Many small companies grew strongly, such as Tuniu up by 140% and Kanzhun up by 46%.
  • Weibo’s advertising revenue decreased, while most companies’ ad revenues have recovered.

AviChina Industry (2357 HK): Better Look Forward

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • AviChina Industry & Technology H (2357 HK)‘s FY23 earnings growth of 5.5% is affected by dilution and restatement. Its A-share subsidiaries achieved a 24% aggregate earnings growth. 
  • Gross margin expanded and outlook remains decent. Projected growth for these A-shares reached 36.6% in FY24F and 23.8% in FY25F. Net cash equals 40% of the share price.
  • The stock’s 8.5x and 7.3x PERs for FY24F and FY25F are cheap relative to its peers. It also trades at 57% discount to its A-share holdings.

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Daily Brief China: Tencent, KE Holdings , Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Ganfeng Lithium and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Mar 2024); Strong Net Buying on Tencent and ETFs
  • [KE Holdings (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$24) Review]: Investor Friendly & Best-In-Class…Reiterate BUY
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Mar 2024): Biggest Net Buying in a While, CATL a Big Buy
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Mar 2024):  Liquid AH Premia Starting to Narrow


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Mar 2024); Strong Net Buying on Tencent and ETFs

By Travis Lundy

  • A shares were up small on the week. The spivvier the better. HK was up better, especially among the liquid names.
  • Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK$21.4bn in the fourth post-holiday week vs +HK$17bn the week before. SOUTHBOUND has net bought every day since the end of Chinese New Year.
  • The flavour of SOUTHBOUND buying has been high-div SOEs for months and months. That is starting to change slightly. Tencent was a net buy the second week in a row. 

[KE Holdings (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$24) Review]: Investor Friendly & Best-In-Class…Reiterate BUY

By Eric Wen

  • KE Holdings’ (BEKE) reported C4Q23 revenue 6.2%/7.5% above our est./cons.. Its non-GAAP net income miss our est. by 8.3%, due to bad debt write-off and year-end bonus
  • Although recovery in new home market remains muddy, we view Beike’s commitment to deliver 5% yield through dividend and stock buyback as investor friendly. 
  • We reiterate BUY rating and maintain TP at US$24/ADS . 

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Mar 2024): Biggest Net Buying in a While, CATL a Big Buy

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 32.8bn of A-shares on decent volume after one RMB-3bn week following 5 weeks straight of net buying total RMB +63bn. Foreigners are in.
  • The volume now is back to chasing momentum, but given so much net buying, much of it appears to be passive plus a CATL kicker.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Mar 2024):  Liquid AH Premia Starting to Narrow

By Travis Lundy

  • The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
  • SOUTHBOUND a net buyer every day since the end of Chinese New Year. NORTHBOUND a huge net buyer this week, now net buyers in size (RMB +93bn) over 7 weeks.
  • For the first time in a while, AH premia among liquid stocks fell convincingly. Narrow AH premia pairs saw Hs outperform more than wide AH premia Hs (vs As).

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Daily Brief China: Sino Land Co, Hang Seng Index, Kanzhun , Migao Group Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HK CEO & Director Dealings (15 Mar 2024): Sino Land, Hysan, FE Consortium, Champion REIT, Dongyue
  • EQD | Hang Seng (HSI): How Far Can It Rally Now?
  • [Kanzhun Ltd. (BZ US, BUY, TP US$22) Rating Change]: Market Share Gain Ahead of Purported Recovery
  • Migao Group IPO – Last Listing Didn’t Do Well, This One Might Struggle Too


HK CEO & Director Dealings (15 Mar 2024): Sino Land, Hysan, FE Consortium, Champion REIT, Dongyue

By David Blennerhassett


EQD | Hang Seng (HSI): How Far Can It Rally Now?

By Nico Rosti

  • The Hang Seng Index is rallying and could co higher this week but it seems there isn’t much room to go really higher.
  • A good target to cover your LONG holdings would be 17500, for this coming week and/or the following week.
  • A pullback this coming week is also possible, so it’s not sure the index can rally more from here, or at least not without some correction first.

[Kanzhun Ltd. (BZ US, BUY, TP US$22) Rating Change]: Market Share Gain Ahead of Purported Recovery

By Eric Wen

  • BZ reported 4Q23 revenue in-line/2.6% vs. our estimate/consensus, non-GAAP NI beat our estimate/consensus by 3.5%/21.9%, mainly attributable to effective cost control measures. 
  • We think the competitive advantages over peers grand BZ privilege to enjoy the early sign of hiring demand recovery, whereas overall China job market remains lackluster in early 2024.
  • We upgrade the stock from SELL to BUY and rise TP by US$7.5 to US$22/ADS.

Migao Group IPO – Last Listing Didn’t Do Well, This One Might Struggle Too

By Clarence Chu

  • Migao Group Holdings (9879 HK) is looking to raise up to US$124m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • Migao Group (Migao) is a vertically-integrated national potash fertilizer company in China.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance and share our thoughts on valuation.

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Daily Brief China: Alibaba (ADR), Miniso, Meituan, Agung Podomoro Land, Qunabox Group Limited and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba, Tencent Continue to Tear Down Walls Between Their Meeting Platforms
  • [Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$31) Target Price Change]: Near Term Story Is Still the Americas
  • MT/ Meituan (3690 HK) Earnings Preview: Fourth Positive EPS, 99% Upside
  • Morning Views Asia: Agung Podomoro Land, China Vanke
  • Qunabox Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet


Alibaba, Tencent Continue to Tear Down Walls Between Their Meeting Platforms

By Caixin Global

  • Alibaba Group’s office messaging and meeting app DingTalk is allowing users of Tencent Holdings’ rival social media app WeChat to directly join any meeting initiated on DingTalk without first registering.
  • DingTalk users can now share a meeting link with WeChat users, who can enter the meeting within WeChat.
  • Previously, DingTalk required participants to download its meeting app and register.

[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$31) Target Price Change]: Near Term Story Is Still the Americas

By Eric Wen

  • Miniso report C4Q23 revenue in-line/7.9% vs. our estimate/consensus, non-GAAP NI is 5.1%/10.5% higher than our estimate/consensus on strong overseas sales from North and Latin Americas. 
  • Company guided for soft operating margin thanks to robust new store openings, which we believe to be accretive to earnings in the long run
  • We maintain the stock as BUY and but cut TP by US$2 to US$31/ADS

MT/ Meituan (3690 HK) Earnings Preview: Fourth Positive EPS, 99% Upside

By Ming Lu

  • In 4Q23, we believe total revenue will grow by 20% YoY and MT will have the fourth profitable quarter.
  • We believe Douyin will not threaten MT in the long run according to other competitors’ failure.
  • We believe EPS will reach RMB0.35 in 4Q23 and RMB2.23 in 2023.

Morning Views Asia: Agung Podomoro Land, China Vanke

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Qunabox Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Qunabox Group Limited (QUNA HK) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunner on the deal is Haitong.
  • Qunabox Group Limited (Qunabox) is a marketing service provider in China, focusing on outdoor marketing for fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG).
  • As per CIC, the firm was the fifth largest FMCG outdoor marketing service provider in China in terms of 2022 sales, with a market share of 0.9%.

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Daily Brief China: Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Techn, Cathay Pacific Airways, Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial, Luckin Coffee, CSPC Innovation Pharmaceutical-A, JD.com , Qyuns Therapeutics, Belle Fashion Group and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Jun 24: 3 Changes Likely But Some Question Marks Over Certain Names
  • Cathay Pacific – Rising Inflationary Pressure Expedites Earnings Normalisation
  • Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial Pre-IPO – The Positives – Has Benefited from a Growing Network
  • [Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$37) TP Change]:Weak Sales in 1Q24 but Likely to Improve in 2Q24
  • Cathay Pacific (293 HK, BUY, TP HK$9.90): FY23 Better than Expected, and Surprise Dividends
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun 24: Multiple Changes to Expectations; US$481mn One-Way
  • JD.com Inc.: Market Share Expansion via Platform Ecosystem Improvements! – Key Drivers
  • Pre-IPO Qyuns Therapeutics (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
  • Belle Fashion Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates
  • Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Improving Margins Playing Catch Up


Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Jun 24: 3 Changes Likely But Some Question Marks Over Certain Names

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential ADDs and DELs for the STAR 50 index during the June 2024 index rebal event.
  • I currently expect three changes for the STAR 50 index in June 2024 but there are some questions marks over the names leading the race to become ADDs.

Cathay Pacific – Rising Inflationary Pressure Expedites Earnings Normalisation

By Neil Glynn

  • 2023 results came in broadly in line with expectations but included a concerning step up in ex-fuel unit cost inflation.
  • We cut our 2024 EBITDAR by 10% to HK$22.2bn, which drives net income down 21% to HK$6.6bn, leaving us well below consensus.
  • We revisit Cathay’s margin generation problems from the last cycle, illustrating structural problems which require structural solutions.

Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial Pre-IPO – The Positives – Has Benefited from a Growing Network

By Clarence Chu

  • Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (AJI HK) is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (Auntea) is a freshly-made beverage producer.
  • In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

[Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$37) TP Change]:Weak Sales in 1Q24 but Likely to Improve in 2Q24

By Eric Wen

  • We cut Luckin Coffee’s 1Q24 revenue estimate by 3% to RMB7.9bn with 79% yoy and cut non-GAAP net income estimate by 42% to RMB318mn due to (1) weak sales;
  • We expect 2Q24 to be the turning point for earnings due to (1) sales improving with weather warm-up (2) ASP rebound from easing competition 
  • We maintain the stock as BUY rating but lower TP by US$4 to US$37 to factor in the temporary near-term weak sale.

Cathay Pacific (293 HK, BUY, TP HK$9.90): FY23 Better than Expected, and Surprise Dividends

By Mohshin Aziz

  • FY23 net profit of HKD9.1b, easily beating the consensus forecast of HKD8.5b, and announced a surprise dividend, the first since 2019, signally pandemic effects are over 
  • Perfect execution from the team, leveraging on a strong market 
  • Cathay Pacific is a value BUY, our target price of HK$9.90 (+10% UPSIDE) implies 10x FY2024 PE. We will update more after tuning in the 2 pm analyst briefing 

Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun 24: Multiple Changes to Expectations; US$481mn One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The ChiNext Index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
  • The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs in the June 2024 index rebal event.

JD.com Inc.: Market Share Expansion via Platform Ecosystem Improvements! – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • JD.com’s latest earnings showed a strong commitment to growth, navigating a mix of macro recoveries, seasonality factors and strategic refocus.
  • They delivered a growth in net revenues by 4% and recorded a non-GAAP net income attributable to ordinary shareholders of RMB 8.4 billion.
  • Cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short term investments totaled RMB 198 billion.

Pre-IPO Qyuns Therapeutics (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The biggest concern here is the uncertain commercialization outlook of Qyuns’s pipeline, mainly due to both industry factors in the field of autoimmune and allergic diseases and Qyuns’s own problems.
  • Qyuns is overvalued. There’re rumors that Qyuns was “not popular” in primary market when fundraising, perhaps due to Dr. Yu Guoliang’s past unsuccessful experience which made investors suffered losses before.
  • By reducing the size of IPO to maintain high share price, this IPO may “look successful”.Investors can seize this opportunity to take profits in time, but long-term hold isn’t recommended.

Belle Fashion Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates

By Sumeet Singh

  • Belle Fashion (BF) aims to raise up to US$1bn in its Hong Kong listing. The company recently refiled its application proof after a gap of two years.
  • As per F&S, it was the largest player in China’s fashion footwear market with a 12.3% market share, based on 2022 retail sales.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance based on its earlier filings in 2022. In this note, we talk about the updates from its recent filings.

Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Improving Margins Playing Catch Up

By Clarence Chu

  • Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (AJI HK) is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (Auntea) is a freshly-made beverage producer.
  • In this note, we will talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.

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