Category

China

Daily Brief China: Asia Cement China, Tencent, Techtronic Industries, Trip.com, Quantgroup Technology, QuantumPharm, Mokingran Jewellery Group and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia Cement (743 HK): Parent’s Ready-Mixed Offer?
  • Asia Cement China (743 HK): Privatisation by Asia Cement?
  • Tencent/Netease: Major Names Get Zeroed in May, Smells of Common Prosperity?
  • HK CEO & Director Dealings (29 May 2024): J&T Global, Melco, Techtronic, Gushengtang, United Energy
  • Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Grinds Forward | Domestic Weakness Not New | (May 2024)
  • Quantgroup Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • QuantumPharm (Xtalpi) Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Strong Growth, Although Losses Continue to Pile Up
  • Pre-IPO Mokingran Jewellery Group – Disappointing Profit Margin and Potential Risk in Business Model


Asia Cement (743 HK): Parent’s Ready-Mixed Offer?

By David Blennerhassett

  • Chinese cement play Asia Cement China (743 HK) (ACC) is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
  • Asia Cement (1102 TT) has been ACC’s majority shareholder since its 2008 IPO. Asia Cement currently holds 73.07%. 
  • Shares gained ~50% this week. On serious volume. With net cash of US$1.03bn vs. a market cap of US$66mn, a privatisation should command a punchy premium to the last close.

Asia Cement China (743 HK): Privatisation by Asia Cement?

By Arun George

  • Asia Cement China (743 HK) entered a trading halt based on the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. Bloomberg reports that Asia Cement (1102 TT) is considering a buyout. 
  • Privatisation interest is unsurprising, as ACC’s EV has been negative since 6 July 2022 due to headwinds from the weak Chinese property sector and uncertainty about cash use.
  • An offer price of HK$5.18 would imply a zero EV. However, due to the difficult trading conditions, we think an offer would be around HK$4.00 per share.

Tencent/Netease: Major Names Get Zeroed in May, Smells of Common Prosperity?

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • China announced game approval for the May batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
  • The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening, though the number of approvals appears to be slower than March.
  • None of the listed companies that we followed received approval for mobile games.

HK CEO & Director Dealings (29 May 2024): J&T Global, Melco, Techtronic, Gushengtang, United Energy

By David Blennerhassett


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Grinds Forward | Domestic Weakness Not New | (May 2024)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Chinese outbound travel demand continued its gradual recovery in April 
  • Moderating domestic demand? It’s not new, and outbound matters more 
  • On a pullback to below US$50, we would again BUY Trip.com’s ADRs

Quantgroup Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Quantgroup Technology (1467534D CH) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by CICC and CMB International.
  • Quantgroup Technology is a digitalization solutions provider in China. Its digitalization solutions primarily include digitalized marketing, including precision marketing for financial institutions and local merchants, and goods transaction facilitation.
  • The apps that Quantgroup operates can be largely categorized into two Quant-enabled proprietary apps, namely Yangxiaomie and Consumption Guide. 

QuantumPharm (Xtalpi) Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Strong Growth, Although Losses Continue to Pile Up

By Clarence Chu

  • QuantumPharm (QUP HK) (Xtalpi) is looking to raise US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • QuantumPharm is a R&D platform, utilizing quantum physics-based first-principles calculation, advanced AI, high-performance cloud computing, and scalable and standardized robotic automation to provide drug and material science R&D solutions.
  • In our previous note we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we discuss QuantumPharm’s PHIP updates.

Pre-IPO Mokingran Jewellery Group – Disappointing Profit Margin and Potential Risk in Business Model

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • MOKINGRAN’s revenue fluctuated in the past three years. Profit margin was much lower than that of peers/industry average, which may not necessarily have big improvement even with upward gold price.
  • MOKINGRAN once applied for IPO in A-share but failed. The concerns of SZSE included “unusual” gold trade-in business, large inventory balance and the risk of “false increase” in profits/revenues.
  • The gold boom should not mask the risks of MOKINGRAN. Even if MOKINGRAN successfully goes public, it still faces many challenges. Valuation of MOKINGRAN should be lower than peers. 

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Daily Brief China: Akeso Biopharma Inc, Jiangxi Rimag Group, Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm, China Vanke and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Is Akeso’s Sell-Off a Long Waited Opportunity or a Long Overdue Correction?
  • Pre-IPO Jiangxi Rimag Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
  • Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990.HK) – Current High Valuation Is Not Secure
  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke


Is Akeso’s Sell-Off a Long Waited Opportunity or a Long Overdue Correction?

By Eric Wen

  • Disputable Phase III result of Akeso’s (9926 HK) flagship pipeline Ivonescimab (AK112) caused Akeso’s share price to drop 28% in three days, reaching the bottom of a year-long trading range;
  • The fundamental difference of opinions is around Ivonescimab’s global prospects against (1) Merck’s Keytruda, (2) J&J’s Rybrevant, (3) Kelun’s SKB264 and domestic prospect against (4) Innovent’s IBI305;
  • Some answers are clear while others are now. What can provide answers are (1) SKB264‘s Phase III data, and to a lesser degree (2) AK112’s head-to-head trial against Keytruda.

Pre-IPO Jiangxi Rimag Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Considering the dominant position of medical imaging centers in public hospitals and challenges from other players, future development space of Rimag would be squeezed,and even will soon encounter growth bottlenecks.
  • Although Rimag turned losses into profits, we still have doubts about its future profitability due to increasing costs and potential price decline.This business may fail to bring investors decent profits.
  • Rimag’s post-investment valuation after last round financing isn’t cheap.Given the uncertainty of future revenue growth prospects and the real market space, P/S of below 3 is a more comfortable range.

Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990.HK) – Current High Valuation Is Not Secure

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The imagination space and good stories for Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990 HK) at this stage mainly come from SKB264. The market has higher expectations for SKB264’s clinical data on NSCLC/TNBC. 
  • The better the clinical results of SKB264 +PD1/L1, the greater the negative impact on AK112’s future expectations/market space in NSCLC. ADC +PD-1 seems more “convincing” than the logic of BsAb.
  • This July, restricted shares of major shareholders will be lifted, which may lead to big share price fluctuation if they reduce their shareholdings. Investors need not rush to be long.

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Alibaba Group Holding , Huafa Property Services Group, China Merchants China Direct Investments, Baidu, JD.com , iQIYI Inc, Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd, Akeso Biopharma Inc and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba/JD.com:  Thoughts On The Recent Convertible Bond Issuance
  • Huafa Property Services (982 HK)’s Knockout Offer
  • Activism Takes On CMCDI (133 HK)
  • Huafa Property Services (982 HK): Scheme Offer at HK$0.29
  • Baidu Inc.: What Are Their Expansion Plans Of AI Offerings Beyond Ernie? – Major Drivers
  • JD.com Inc.: How Are They Strengthening the Platform Ecosystem & Continuing Their Market Dominance? – Major Drivers
  • iQIYI Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – How Are They Leveraging Generative AI capabilities? – Major Drivers
  • Lalatech Compared to Full Truck Alliance, SF Intra-City, and GOGOX in Eleven Easy Charts
  • Akeso Biopharma (9926.HK) – It’s Not Game over Yet


Alibaba/JD.com:  Thoughts On The Recent Convertible Bond Issuance

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) and JD.com (9618 HK) both announced the issuance of convertible debt last week (Alibaba on May 23 and JD.com on May 21). 
  • Both have mentioned that the reasons for the issuance are the low funding cost (0.25% coupon for JD.com and 0.5% for Alibaba) and to fund their current share repurchase program. 
  • I think the convertible debt structures makes sense and it is beneficial for both companies to buy back as much as possible at the current share price.

Huafa Property Services (982 HK)’s Knockout Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • After entering a trading halt on the 16th May pursuant to the Takeover’s Code, property manager Huafa Property Services (982 HK) has now announced a privatisation by way of a Scheme. 
  • The cancellation price of A$0.29/share is a 30.63% to last close, a 70.59% premium over the 30-day average close, and a life-time high price. The price is final.
  • The Offeror, Zhuhai Huafa, a state-owned enterprise wholly-owned by Zhuhai SASAC, plus concert parties hold 42.63% of shares out. Clean deal.

Activism Takes On CMCDI (133 HK)

By David Blennerhassett

  • In January this year, Argyle Street, a (now) 8% shareholder of China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK) (CMCDI), a closed-end investment company, proposed a solution to boost shareholder value.
  • Two months later, Rydal Value Fund (stake unknown) also proposed a means to boosting shareholder value along similar lines.
  • CMCDI is currently trading at a ~63% discount to NAV. But it is up 78% since Argyle’s initial proposal, and recently touched a six-year high. Argyle is still buying.

Huafa Property Services (982 HK): Scheme Offer at HK$0.29

By Arun George

  • Huafa Property Services Group (982 HK) announced a privatisation offer from Huafa Industrial Co., Ltd. Zhuhai (600325 CH) at HK$0.29 per share, a 30.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (<10% of independent shareholders rejection) and a headcount test. No shareholder holds a blocking stake.
  • The offer, which has been declared final, is attractive compared to historical share prices and peer multiples. This is a done deal, with payment likely in November.  

Baidu Inc.: What Are Their Expansion Plans Of AI Offerings Beyond Ernie? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Baidu’s revenue growth for the first quarter exceeded expectations, with a year-over-year increase of 4%, reaching RMB 23.8 billion.
  • Additionally, Baidu’s continued efforts in Gen AI path have resulted in a 12% year-over-year acceleration in the revenue growth from Baidu AI Cloud, which also delivered an operating profit on a non-GAAP basis.
  • These positive results signify the company’s successful transition from an internet-centric business to an AI-first business.

JD.com Inc.: How Are They Strengthening the Platform Ecosystem & Continuing Their Market Dominance? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • JD.com, a China-based multinational technology conglomerate, has announced its first-quarter results for 2024 in an earnings call and reported robust profit and revenue growth, along with an encouragingly high Net Promoter Score (NPS).
  • The revenue growth was accelerated by strong execution amidst evolving industry dynamics, improved user experience, price competitiveness, and platform ecosystems.
  • Importantly, the general merchandise and supermarket category recorded a notable jump in terms of gross merchandise value (GMV) and revenue growth.

iQIYI Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – How Are They Leveraging Generative AI capabilities? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • iQIYI, an innovative market-leading online entertainment service provider in China, delivered robust first-quarter 2024 results, achieving numerous record highs, such as non-GAAP operating income and its corresponding margin.
  • CEO, Mr. Yu Gong, shared that the expanding margin could be attributed to the high-quality growth of the company.
  • The Membership Services business continued its growth trajectory with monthly ARM observed an all-time high.

Lalatech Compared to Full Truck Alliance, SF Intra-City, and GOGOX in Eleven Easy Charts

By Daniel Hellberg

  • We compare Lalatech’s scale, P&L, Balance Sheet, and Cash Flow to peers
  • On several measures, Lalatech is comparable to Full Truck Alliance, SF-Intra
  • Small, unprofitable GOGOX not an appropriate comp for Lalatech, in our view

Akeso Biopharma (9926.HK) – It’s Not Game over Yet

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • We saw the collapse of Akeso’s share price after the Company released the clinical data of AK112 on ASCO. Judging from the market reaction, there are indeed“something unsatisfactory” about AK112.
  • Akeso’s high valuation mainly comes from the expectation that it would be a player that can compete on international stage. But investors’ confidence in AK112’s future commercialization has been shaken.
  • We advise investors to remain patient and “let the bullets fly”. It’s not yet time for the final result.But, if you want to bet, you need to pay the price.

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Daily Brief China: Meituan, Great Wall Motor, L’Occitane, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings , China Molybdenum Co Ltd H, Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), China Resources Pharmaceutical, Baidu , XPeng and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 24 May 2024); Strong Bank Buying and Tech Selling Continues
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 24 May 2024):  HK Stocks Have a BAD Week and AH Premium Rebounds In
  • Merger Arb Mondays (27 May) – L’Occitane, SciClone, GA Pack, KFC Japan, CF Logistics, Best World
  • Offshore China ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in June; Cutoff Today
  • FXI Rebalance Preview: Cutoff Today; Two Changes Likely in June
  • Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696.HK) – Behind the Trading Halt and Privatization Rumor
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 24 May 2024): Weak Net Buy, Weak Gross, Idiosyncratic Flows
  • China Healthcare Weekly (May.26)-VBP Scope Expands, Optimistic About Glove Industry, China Resources
  • Baidu: Priced to Fail
  • China Consumption Weekly (27 May 2024): Xpeng, Tongcheng, Kanzhun, Gaotu, KE, Bilibili, and Weibo


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 24 May 2024); Strong Bank Buying and Tech Selling Continues

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer for HK$18.6bn on strong two-way volumes. The top three net buys of the week were SOE banks. Some may be Central Huijin.
  • Some of this may be driven by the dividend w/h tax cancellation on H divs and by significant H-share discounts, but high-div CNOOC was the biggest net sell.
  • No end to the inflows, and HK valuations are not at a place where they would hamper continued flows. Alibaba making HK a Primary will spur more inflows over time.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 24 May 2024):  HK Stocks Have a BAD Week and AH Premium Rebounds In

By Travis Lundy

  • The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
  • SOUTHBOUND’s buy streak continued this past week; every day was net positive. NORTHBOUND was net positive too. It is not clear how much is National Team buying. Much may be.
  • AH Premia rebounded off multi-year lows, on average, this past week as Hang Seng and other HK indices fell sharply and A-shares did not fall as much. 


Offshore China ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in June; Cutoff Today

By Brian Freitas


FXI Rebalance Preview: Cutoff Today; Two Changes Likely in June

By Brian Freitas

  • With a day to go in the review period, there could be 2 changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) in June.
  • There should be more than 1x ADV to buy on one of the adds while there will be nearly 5x ADV to sell on one of the deletes.
  • There will be positioning in all the potential changes but there appears to be higher interest in one of the potential adds and one of the potential deletes.

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696.HK) – Behind the Trading Halt and Privatization Rumor

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • There are many rumors about Henlius’s trading halt, but Fosun Pharma had applied for the resumption of trading in H Shares, which makes us confused whether this is really privatization.
  • Henlius is in “an awkward position” in capital market. Fosun is to blame for Henlius’s low valuation. The high debt problem makes the profits generated from drug sales meaningless.
  • If Henlius cannot break away from the system controlled by Fosun, the complexity of corporate governance brought about by the relationship between Henlius and Fosun would inevitably affect investment judgment.

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 24 May 2024): Weak Net Buy, Weak Gross, Idiosyncratic Flows

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 0.8bn of A-shares on lower gross volumes. NORTHBOUND bought CATL, China Yangtze Power, and Luxshare. AH Premia bounced, but net volumes are suspect.
  • There is some question as to whether the NORTHBOUND volumes to the buy side are all foreigners. Some suspect there is national team buying mixed in, as was expected.

China Healthcare Weekly (May.26)-VBP Scope Expands, Optimistic About Glove Industry, China Resources

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The NHSA issued a Notice on “improving the quality and expanding the scope of VBP”. The trend of full coverage of VBP of conventional drugs/consumables is determined.TCM is under pressure.
  • We analyzed the potential demand growth rate of the glove industry, which is already better than most cyclical stocks. Therefore, we see no need to remain pessimistic about this industry.
  • Holding platform companies have valuation discounts.HK$50-60 billion is reasonable market value for China Resources Pharmaceutical.Better to go long when share price is below HK$5 and then hold to receive dividends.

Baidu: Priced to Fail

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • Since late 2020, Search’s share of digital advertising revenue has stabilised at around 8-10%, seemingly retaining its core advertising customers and industries.
  • Baidu management expects AI Cloud to maintain strong revenue growth momentum in the upcoming quarters.
  • Baidu trades on a 3.6x NTM EV/EBITDA multiple, well below one standard deviation lower than its 5-year historical average trading range and the lowest it has ever been.

China Consumption Weekly (27 May 2024): Xpeng, Tongcheng, Kanzhun, Gaotu, KE, Bilibili, and Weibo

By Ming Lu

  • In 1Q24, Revenues of Xpeng, Tongcheng, Kanzhun, and Gaotu grew by 62% YoY, 50%, YoY, 43% YoY and 34% YoY.
  • KE’s revenue decreased by 20% YoY in 1Q24 due to the weak property market.
  • Bilibili’s value added services revenue grew by 17% YoY and advertising revenue grew by 31% YoY.

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Daily Brief China: Alibaba Group Holding , Legend Biotech Corp and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba Group: A Story Of Cross-Border E-commerce Scale-up! – Major Drivers
  • Legend Biotech Corporation: Implementation of Commercial Launch of CARVYKTI & Other Major Drivers


Alibaba Group: A Story Of Cross-Border E-commerce Scale-up! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Alibaba Group’s March Quarter and Full Fiscal Year 2024 results show that major segments such as the Taobao and Tmall Group, Alibaba International Digital Commerce, and core public cloud offerings are experiencing growth.
  • The Taobao and Tmall Group achieved double-digit year-over year growth, while Alibaba International Digital Commerce revenue increased by 45%.
  • Moreover, AI related revenue increased triple digit year-over-year, demonstrating the potential of AI technology in fueling the company’s growth.

Legend Biotech Corporation: Implementation of Commercial Launch of CARVYKTI & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Legend Biotech Corporation is a biotech company specializing in CAR-T cell therapy for the treatment of multiple myeloma.
  • In Quarter 1 2024, two major approvals by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and European Commission for the company’s CARVYKTI therapy for second line relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma have solidified its position in the industry.
  • This historical quarterly update positions Legend Biotech’s CARVYKTI on the path to transforming the treatment landscape for thousands of patients suffering from multiple myeloma.

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Daily Brief China: Sciclone Pharmaceuticals, Hang Seng Index, PDD Holdings, Kuaishou Technology and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • SciClone Pharma (6600 HK): Scheme Vote on 19 June
  • EQD | Hang Seng Down: How Low Can the Pullback Go?
  • [PDD Holdings (PDD US,BUY,TP US$172) TP Change]:Squeezing Supplier Base for Its Own Benefit,Globally
  • [Kuaishou (1024 HK, BUY, TP HK$83) Target Price Change]: Out-Performance in Off-Season Thanks to GAI


SciClone Pharma (6600 HK): Scheme Vote on 19 June

By Arun George

  • Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK)‘s scheme document is out, and the court meeting is scheduled for 19 June. The IFA considers the HK$18.80 per share offer fair and reasonable. 
  • The key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake.
  • This is a done deal. At the last close and for the 12 July payment, the gross and annualised spread is 2.2% and 17.3%, respectively.

EQD | Hang Seng Down: How Low Can the Pullback Go?

By Nico Rosti

  • The Hang Seng Index has been rallying for 3 weeks but then last week the rise was halted and the index gave up a good chunk of the gains.
  • It seems the index has become quite volatile but this week it could go up again, or otherwise next week, the reversal is imminent given its oversold condition.
  • It’s hard to predict if the rally can continue after the bounce, the index seems a bit long-term overbought, albeit short-term oversold. A contradiction, but that is the situation now.

[PDD Holdings (PDD US,BUY,TP US$172) TP Change]:Squeezing Supplier Base for Its Own Benefit,Globally

By Ying Pan

  • PDD reported C1Q24 top-line, non-GAAP EBIT, and non-GAAP net income 1.3%, 67.0%, and 80.0% vs. our estimate, and 13.9%, 82.0%, and 94.7% vs. consensus, respectively;
  • Temu unit economics improvement drove the 1Q beat. Per order outlay on marketing and fulfilment declined 20-25% qoq, we estimate;
  • PDD continues to effectively squeeze merchants for its benefit,while also benefiting from weak consumer sentiment in China and overseas. We maintain BUY,and raise TP to US$172, implying 12.3x CY24 PE.

[Kuaishou (1024 HK, BUY, TP HK$83) Target Price Change]: Out-Performance in Off-Season Thanks to GAI

By Ying Pan

  • Kuaishou reported C1Q24 revenue, IFRS OP, and IFRS Net income inline, 58%, and 78% vs. our estimates; and inline, 67% and 86% vs. consensus
  • Company suggested contribution of Generative AI (GAI) to the growth of the advertising business to be substantial;
  • We reiterate our BUY rating and raised target price to HK$83, implying 17x PE in 2025.

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Daily Brief China: Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Xiaomi Corp, Sun Art Retail, Trip.com, Full Truck Alliance , China International Capital Corporation, Sciclone Pharmaceuticals, China Vanke and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Henlius Biotech (2696 HK): Fosun Offer?
  • Henlius (2696 HK): Privatisation by Fosun Pharma?
  • XM / Xiaomi (1810 HK): 1Q24, Revenue Up by 27%, Smartphone Shipments Ranked Global No. 3
  • Sun Art (6808 HK):  FY24 Unimpressive, But All Eyes On Potential Alibaba Sale
  • [Trip.com (TCOM US, SELL, TP US$45) TP Change]: Liquidity and Platform Positive Vs. Demand Negative
  • Full Truck Alliance Q124 Results: Strong Financials Match Recent Strong Share Performance – HOLD
  • CICC (3908 HK): Soon to Be Its Time
  • SciClone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK): 19th June Shareholder Vote
  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust


Henlius Biotech (2696 HK): Fosun Offer?

By David Blennerhassett


Henlius (2696 HK): Privatisation by Fosun Pharma?

By Arun George

  • Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) entered a trading halt “pending the release of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers.” The likely bidder is Fosun Pharma.
  • A merger by absorption would require approval by at least 75% independent H Shareholders (<10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). There could also be a 90% minimum acceptance condition. 
  • The shares are 62% below the IPO price. However, shareholders with blocking stakes would welcome an offer suggesting a 30-40% takeover premium would be sufficient.

XM / Xiaomi (1810 HK): 1Q24, Revenue Up by 27%, Smartphone Shipments Ranked Global No. 3

By Ming Lu

  • Total revenue growth rate climbed up 27% YoY in 1Q24 with all businesses growing strongly.
  • Smartphone shipments grew by 34% YoY and achieved global No. 3.
  • In 1Q24, the gross margins of all major businesses obviously improved.

Sun Art (6808 HK):  FY24 Unimpressive, But All Eyes On Potential Alibaba Sale

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Sun Art Retail (6808 HK)‘s FY24 (fiscal year ending March) numbers were overall unimpressive, with sales down 13% yoy and net loss increasing to RMB1.6bn.
  • The new CEO’s strategy is to refocus on SSSG of offline traffic and restore price competitiveness.  April and May SSSG improved. 
  • The stock is up 20% since my initial insight on the name in March, and I believe more upside remains.

[Trip.com (TCOM US, SELL, TP US$45) TP Change]: Liquidity and Platform Positive Vs. Demand Negative

By Eric Wen

  • In a tough macro environment with travel as perhaps the only bright spot in consumption
  • However, equally compelling is the demand negatives of overseas travel as a somewhat luxurious consumption item and tough competition at home;
  • Given the stock’s valuation, we maintain the rating as SELL but raise TP to US$45/ADS, implying 2025 PE of 15x.

Full Truck Alliance Q124 Results: Strong Financials Match Recent Strong Share Performance – HOLD

By Daniel Hellberg

  • FTA’s revenue growth accelerated in Q124 and exceeded management guidance
  • Gross and OpInc margins (cash basis) both improved sharply in Q124
  • Growth, profitability, mix improved, but FTA no longer so cheap; HOLD

CICC (3908 HK): Soon to Be Its Time

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK) is a laggard among the Chinese securities companies. With the rebound in HSI and Shanghai Composite, such divergence should narrow.
  • The investment banking business should recover following the rebound in the secondary market and equity valuations. HK’s IPO funds raised are forecast to double in 2024.
  • At 0.4x 12-month P/B, the market has deeply discounted CICC’s earnings outlook. However, as earnings recovery will be fast, its share price will react rapidly.

SciClone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK): 19th June Shareholder Vote

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 28th March, Li Zhenfu (SciClone (6600 HK)‘s NED), Assicurazioni Generali (G IM), and concert parties (collectively controlling 36.61%), made an Offer at $18.80/share, a 33.9% premium to undisturbed. 
  • The Offer price is bang in line with SciClone’s March 2021 IPO price. Terms were declared final. This is a clean deal.
  • The Scheme Document is now out. The Court Meeting will be held on the 19th June. Expected payment on or before the 12 July. FWIW: IFA says fair & reasonable.

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Hong Kong Television Network, PDD Holdings, Li Auto , Kuaishou Technology, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Shanghai Cell Therapy Group, SJM Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HKTV (1137 HK): Co-Founders’ Ruse to Increase Their Grip Through a Share Buyback at HK$2.15
  • PDD (PDD US): 1Q24, Rev Up by 131% and Margin Reaching Historical High
  • [Li Auto (LI US, BUY, TP US$25) TP Change]: Delaying BEV Is the Wrong Approach to Competition
  • KS / Kuaishou (1024 HK): 1Q24, Strong GMV and Historical High Op Margin Again
  • New Experiments in China’s Crowded EV Space
  • Pre-IPO Shanghai Cell Therapy Group – Commercialization Prospects and Profitability Are Pessimistic
  • Morning Views Asia: SJM Holdings, Softbank Group, Yankuang Energy Group


HKTV (1137 HK): Co-Founders’ Ruse to Increase Their Grip Through a Share Buyback at HK$2.15

By Arun George

  • Hong Kong Television Network (1137 HK) has launched a share buyback to acquire a maximum of 100.0m shares (11.25% of shares) at HK$2.15, a 20.8% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • The offer is conditional on approval by the requisite majority of shareholders and the approval of the whitewash waiver. There is no minimum acceptance condition, and the offer price is final.
  • The offer is unattractive and is an inefficient use of cash to increase the co-founders’ grip on the shares. Nevertheless, the EGM vote is likely to get up.   

PDD (PDD US): 1Q24, Rev Up by 131% and Margin Reaching Historical High

By Ming Lu

  • Total revenue rose by 131% in 1Q24 with advertising up by 56% YoY and commission up by 327% YoY.
  • In 1Q24, both the operating profit and the operating margin reached record highs.
  • The historical price / sales ratios suggests a significant upside. Buy.

[Li Auto (LI US, BUY, TP US$25) TP Change]: Delaying BEV Is the Wrong Approach to Competition

By Eric Wen

  • LI Auto’s decision to push out its BEV launch to 2025 is a delay of multi-faces at a time when China’s EV market is chaotically.
  • We keep rating @BUY because LI still possesses the SUV niche, enjoys a healthy margin and have ample cash. 
  • We cut TP from US$40 to US$25 and maintain BUY.

KS / Kuaishou (1024 HK): 1Q24, Strong GMV and Historical High Op Margin Again

By Ming Lu

  • In 1Q24, revenue grew by 17% YoY and e-commerce GMV grew by 28% YoY.
  • Both the operating margin and the operating profit reached historical highs in 1Q24.
  • We set an upside of 47% and the price target at HK$86.00. Buy.

New Experiments in China’s Crowded EV Space

By Eric Wen

  • Making EV itself doesn’t make money, which is why independents like Nio and XPeng are thinking alternative ways to breakeven;
  • Tesla envisioned to make money through scale, of which BYD bettered. Tesla also envisioned to make money from autonomous driving (ADS);
  • Nio plans to sell its battery swapping service while XPeng is selling ADS to Volkswagen. Both are experiments aiming at breakeven. Both also have new models to launch.

Pre-IPO Shanghai Cell Therapy Group – Commercialization Prospects and Profitability Are Pessimistic

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The biggest problem of cell therapy in China is the uncertain prospect of commercialization. Medical practitioners also have reservations regarding the usefulness of cryopreserved cells for clinical application.
  • Shanghai Cell Therapy could be in a long-term loss making state, and both of its R&D and commercialization capabilities need to be verified. Then, how would investors obtain expected returns?
  • Post-Investment valuation already reached above RMB7.1 billion after Series D financing. However, market value of comparable companies are quite low, which makes us worry about stock price performance after IPO.

Morning Views Asia: SJM Holdings, Softbank Group, Yankuang Energy Group

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Prosus NV, Tencent, Trip.com Group , Hong Kong Television Network, Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: Bloisi’s Appointment Stalls The Prosus Accretion Trade
  • GAI-Related Numbers and Quotes from C1Q24 Earnings
  • Trip.com (9961 HK): 1Q24, Quite Good Quarter, But Stock Up by 37% in Three Months
  • HKTV (1137 HK): $2.15/Share Buy-Back
  • Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics (300760.CH) – Time to Bring “New Growth Story” To Investors


StubWorld: Bloisi’s Appointment Stalls The Prosus Accretion Trade

By David Blennerhassett

  • Prosus (PRX NA)‘s discount to NAV and implied stub widened after Fabricio Bloisi’s CEO appointment late last week. But the sell-down of Tencent (700 HK) to buy-back Prosus will  continue. 
  • Preceding my comments on Naspers (NPN SJ)/Prosus/Tencent are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

GAI-Related Numbers and Quotes from C1Q24 Earnings

By Eric Wen

  • Generative AI (GAI) helps capex, no doubt. But key question is whether capex can yield to revenue and profits;
  • Content creation industry is sure to realize revenue and profits. iQiyi and NetEase already said so with concreate examples;
  • Advertising can realize revenue by better matching of ads inventory and perhaps improve inventory utilization.

Trip.com (9961 HK): 1Q24, Quite Good Quarter, But Stock Up by 37% in Three Months

By Ming Lu

  • In 1Q24, Trip’s revenue grew strongly by 29% YoY with all business booming.
  • China and Trip achieved a lot overseas travelers in March and the Labor Day Holidays.
  • However, the stock price has risen 37% in the past three months.

HKTV (1137 HK): $2.15/Share Buy-Back

By David Blennerhassett

  • Online shopping platform play Hong Kong Television Network (1137 HK) (better known as HKTV) has announced a buy-back of 11.25% of shares out, at $2.15/share, a 20.8% premium to undisturbed.
  • If successful, the Offer elevates co-founder Ricky Wong’s stake, together with concert parties, to 51.55% (before exercising options), up from 45.75% currently. 
  • HKTV has been in the news lately for all the wrong reasons: claims of non-payments to suppliers; and delaying its 2026 target after a 79% decline in FY23’s net profit.

Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics (300760.CH) – Time to Bring “New Growth Story” To Investors

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Mindray’s 2023 growth just hit the low end of our forecast.The good story that “recovery of routine diagnosis/treatment after COVID-19 would drive the growth of MI/IVD businesses” doesn’t hold water.
  • Mindray may fail to get back to 20%+ revenue growth in 2024 based on current situation.The Company has to continue to “buy revenue” so as to reverse the declining trend.
  • The valuation of about 25-30 PE is reasonable for Mindray, not undervalued. If PE falls to the range of 20-25, we think it is a good place to go long.

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Daily Brief China: L’Occitane, Li Auto , China Resources Beverage, Shulan Health Management, Health And Happiness (H&H) and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • L’Occitane (973 HK): Who Owns What, And When
  • Li Auto (LI US): 1Q24, A List of Bad News
  • Pre-IPO China Resources Beverage – Here Are the Concerns and the Risks Behind
  • Shulan Health Management Pre-IPO – Still Ramping up but Only a Small Player
  • Morning Views Asia:


L’Occitane (973 HK): Who Owns What, And When

By David Blennerhassett

  • A fortnight ago, I sought access to L’Occitane (973 HK)‘s lesser-known shareholder register, a byproduct of investigative disclosure reports under Chapter 571, s329 of the Securities and Futures Ordinance.
  • This is the same register I discussed in Giordano (709 HK): A Closer Look At The Shareholder Register Ahead Of The SGM; and one also used by proxy solicitors. 
  • The register confirms what has been long rumoured about a certain shareholder activist. It is also informative for what isn’t present. 

Li Auto (LI US): 1Q24, A List of Bad News

By Ming Lu

  • Operating profit turned negative in 1Q24 compared to 1Q23 due to the price war and the failure of new model.
  • The company disappeared from the industry top-10 list of sales volume and revenue growth slowed down to zero in April.
  • All cross-sectional comparisons suggest a Sell rating for the stock.

Pre-IPO China Resources Beverage – Here Are the Concerns and the Risks Behind

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Over 92% of CR Beverage’s revenue is from packaged drinking water products, but YoY growth this business is already below industry CAGR, raising concerns about whether future growth will stall.
  • The revenue scale/profitability of CR Beverage are far inferior to Nongfu Spring. In terms of cost control, operational efficiency and the strength of supply chain, CR Beverage is lagging behind.
  • For low-priced packaging water, the nationwide expansion is not a simple task, which will lead to significant cash outflow. Valuation of CR Beverage should be lower than that of peers. 

Shulan Health Management Pre-IPO – Still Ramping up but Only a Small Player

By Ethan Aw

  • Shulan Health Management (1807987D CH)  is looking to raise around US$150m in its Hong Kong IPO. 
  • Shulan Health Management (SHM) is a technology-driven healthcare group in China that integrates healthcare services and medical research and education.
  • In this note, we talk about the firm’s historical performance.

Morning Views Asia:

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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    Sign Up for Free

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