Category

China

Daily Brief China: Huafa Property Services Group, Pylon Technologies , Health And Happiness (H&H), Perfect Medical Health and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Huafa Property Services (982 HK): Wide Spread Ahead of the 28 August Vote
  • Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Sep 24: Final Ranks; Some Question Marks over Ninebot Re-Inclusion
  • Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield, Health And Happiness (H&H), Vedanta Resources
  • Perfect Medical (1830 HK): Gleanings from the Annual Report and Presentation For FY24


Huafa Property Services (982 HK): Wide Spread Ahead of the 28 August Vote

By Arun George

  • Huafa Property Services Group (982 HK)’s IFA opines that Huafa Industrial Co., Ltd. Zhuhai (600325 CH)’s HK$0.29 privatisation offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 28 August. 
  • Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (<10% of independent shareholders rejection) and a headcount test. The offer price is final.
  • No shareholder holding a blocking stake, low AGM minority participation rate and calm retail boards suggest low vote risk. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread is 9.4%/52.5%. 

Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Sep 24: Final Ranks; Some Question Marks over Ninebot Re-Inclusion

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • Unlike the other popular Chinese indices (CSI, SSE, ChiNext, etc.) that rebalance semiannually, the STAR 50 index has a quarterly rebalance cycle and the next rebalance will be in September.
  • With the reference period for the September 2024 STAR 50 index rebal event coming to an end, we have presented our final expectations for ADDs and DELs in this insight.

Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield, Health And Happiness (H&H), Vedanta Resources

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Perfect Medical (1830 HK): Gleanings from the Annual Report and Presentation For FY24

By Sameer Taneja

  • We analyze the audited annual report of Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK) released on the 16th of July. We also analyzed the company’s FY24 presentation. 
  • The key takeaway is that the company will endeavor to improve its efficiency by cross-selling more services through Beauty Supermarket and expanding the sleep therapy business with Goku.
  • Trading at a 12.5% dividend yield with 17% of its market cap in cash and >50% ROEs, the business is solid and worth exploring as an investment. 

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Daily Brief China: Hygeia Healthcare Group, ESR Group , NIO , Samson Holding, Dbg Technology, Distinct Healthcare Holdings, Xiaomi Corp and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong: Stocks Facing the Passive Boot in August
  • Atla Global Management’s John Haskell on International Real Estate + ESR Group Thesis $1821.HK
  • China Autos Landscape Has Permanently Changed, Foreign Brands Have Lost Their Clout
  • Samson (531 HK): MBO Via A Scheme
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Dec 24: Multiple Ranking Changes; Double-Impacts for Some
  • Pre-IPO Distinct Healthcare Holdings-  Hard to Deliver the Expected Returns Due to Growth Bottleneck
  • Morning Views Asia: SM Investments, Xiaomi Corp


Hong Kong: Stocks Facing the Passive Boot in August

By Brian Freitas

  • There are a bunch of stocks listed in Hong Kong that have underperformed the HSCEI INDEX and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios in August.
  • The deletion from passive portfolios will lead to a liquidity event at the end of August where passive trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.
  • There has been a big jump in cumulative excess volume in some stocks and the A/H premium on a lot of the names has jumped over the last few months.

Atla Global Management’s John Haskell on International Real Estate + ESR Group Thesis $1821.HK

By Yet Another Value Podcast

  • Andrew Walker hosts the podcast and introduces John Haskell, CIO at Ulta Global Management
  • Ulta Global focuses on international public real estate investing, particularly in emerging markets
  • Despite negative perception and underperformance in emerging markets, there are opportunities for value investing in international real estate

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


China Autos Landscape Has Permanently Changed, Foreign Brands Have Lost Their Clout

By Mohshin Aziz

  • Chinese auto brands commands 61% market share in May 2024, up from 7% in 2021. Its premium car market share has also risen to 25% from nothing  
  • The transition towards EV, swift adoption of technology and sleek designs has made traditional car makers (including luxury marquees) look antiquated and out of fashion compared to the Chinese brands  
  • Premium Chinese automakers LiAuto and NIO will benefit over long-term, whilst the foreign dealers and local-foreign JV OEMs will suffer over the long term. 

Samson (531 HK): MBO Via A Scheme

By David Blennerhassett

  • Furniture trader Samson Holding (531 HK) has announced a Scheme from Shan Huei Kuo, Samson’s Chairman. 
  • The Cancellation price is $0.48, a 50% to last close. The premium is more pronounced if going back a month. The price is final.
  • This looks done. But Samson is an illiquid micro cap.

Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Dec 24: Multiple Ranking Changes; Double-Impacts for Some

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The ChiNext Index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
  • The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our latest rankings for ADDs and DELs for the upcoming index rebal event in December 2024.

Pre-IPO Distinct Healthcare Holdings-  Hard to Deliver the Expected Returns Due to Growth Bottleneck

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Due to industry characteristics, it would be difficult for Distinct Healthcare to scale up. The Company is more of “a supplementary role” in the entire medical service system in China.
  • Profit margin is not satisfactory and cost side is also difficult to reduce. Even if Distinct Healthcare successfully turns losses into profits, it’s hard to generate good returns for investors.
  • Post-Money valuation was US$510 million after Series E financing. For a company that would encounter bottlenecks in both revenue and profit growth, it would be difficult to achieve high valuation.

Morning Views Asia: SM Investments, Xiaomi Corp

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Samson Holding, PC Partner, Cambricon Technologies Lt, Bloks Group, Lenovo and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Samson Holding (531 HK): Chairman’s Scheme Privatisation at HK$0.48
  • Further “SGX Listing & HKEx Withdrawal” Musings
  • SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Inclusions Outperforming (And How!)
  • Pre-IPO Bloks Group – High Growth May Not Be Sustainable
  • Morning Views Asia: Lenovo


Samson Holding (531 HK): Chairman’s Scheme Privatisation at HK$0.48

By Arun George

  • Samson Holding (531 HK) disclosed a Cayman scheme privatisation offer from Mr Samuel Kuo (Chairman) at HK$0.48 per share, a 77.8% and 50.0% premium to undisturbed and last close price, respectively. 
  • The key condition will be approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). The offer price is final.
  • The attractive takeover premium, lack of shareholders holding a blocking stake, and low AGM minority participation rate point to a done deal. However, this is a small cap illiquid stock.

Further “SGX Listing & HKEx Withdrawal” Musings

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 18th June, personal computer parts and accessories play PC Partner (1263 HK)  announced a SGX listing was under consideration; and a possible withdrawal of the HKEx listing.
  • This development was discussed in PC Partner (1263 HK) Muses SGX Listing & HKEx Withdrawal.  PC Partner subsequently announced a privatisation would not accompany any proposed withdrawal (should it happens).
  • My recent discussions with SFC confirms this is possible. And there was a recent precedent. But there may be caveats.

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Inclusions Outperforming (And How!)

By Brian Freitas

  • With 70% of the review period complete, 4 non-constituents are in inclusion zone and 5 constituents are in deletion zone.
  • We estimate one-way turnover of 6.5% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 8.8bn (US$1.2bn). Index arb balances could increase the impact on the stocks.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes. With multiple days ADV to trade on the changes and the recent short selling clampdown, there could be further outperformance.

Pre-IPO Bloks Group – High Growth May Not Be Sustainable

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The key for high growth in 2023/24Q1 lies in its assembly character toys with renowned IPs,which may not be sustainable or even collapse if Bloks fails to renew license agreements.
  • The advantages of Bloks in development prospects, self-developed IPs, brand stickiness are not obvious. The latest valuation reached RMB7.2 billion, but the founder has already cashed out before IPO. 
  • Hong Kong stock market has been “lukewarm” to toy companies. Except Pop Mart, valuation/share price of peers are quite weak.How to gain investor/market’s recognition for Bloks is a question mark.

Morning Views Asia: Lenovo

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Legend Biotech Corp, Budweiser Brewing APAC , Wasion Group Holdings, Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Ra, DiDi Global, Victory Giant Technology -A, China Shineway Pharmaceutical, Yifeng Pharmacy Chain , Hello Group and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Update Provides Fodder for Bulls and Bears
  • Legend Biotech (LEGN US): Takeover Interest – Possible but Tough to Pull Off
  • BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stocks Update (July 15)
  • Wasion (3393): Smart Power Meter
  • Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 24: US$1.6bn+ One-Way; Some Changes to Expectations.
  • Remember DiDi Global? We Check in on China’s Dominant Rideshare Company and Review Recent Results
  • CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: 50 Changes; 11% Turnover; US$3.4bn Round-Trip Trade
  • China Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877.HK) – Negative Growth in 24H1 Seems Inevitable
  • Yifeng Pharmacy (603939 CH) – Monday, Apr 15, 2024
  • Hello Group Inc (MOMO) – Monday, Apr 15, 2024


China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Update Provides Fodder for Bulls and Bears

By Arun George

  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)’s monthly update provides ammunition to both the bulls and bears. Since falling on no news on 26 June, the spread has widened to 31.8%. 
  • The bull view is that while the timelines are delayed, the privatisation remains on track as the update shows ongoing progress in satisfying the pre-condition. 
  • The bear view is that progress remains glacial, as the consortium wants to withdraw from a binding offer by failing to satisfy the pre-condition before the long stop date.

Legend Biotech (LEGN US): Takeover Interest – Possible but Tough to Pull Off

By Arun George

  • Legend Biotech Corp (LEGN US) shares increased 12% on Friday as a Street Insider report claimed it received takeover interest and hired Centerview Partners to help review the offer.
  • Genscript Biotech (1548 HK), the largest shareholder, shares rose 25%. Genscript responsded that it is not aware of any reasons for these share price movements and any inside information.
  • The chances for an offer are low as the offeror would face several hurdles. Nevertheless, without an offer, the upcoming CARVYKTI commercial production in 2H24 will support the share price.   

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stocks Update (July 15)

By David Mudd

  • Hong Kong market still trades at a substantial discount to Analyst year end price targets.
  • Budweiser APAC is dependent on China’s consumer to lift sales while Anta Sports is targeting increased sales from the upcoming Paris Olympics.
  • Sunny Optical is seeing substantial growth from it EV segment and Haitian continues to grow its international sales.  Shineway RX is a rare value play in the pharmaceutical sector.

Wasion (3393): Smart Power Meter

By Henry Soediarko

  • Energy is scarce, thus, besides renewable energy, energy efficiency should also be the key focus. 
  • Wasion Group Holdings (3393 HK) customers have grown from domestic grids to both non-grid and grid domestic as well as overseas customers (Latin America). 
  • Despite a 65% YTD return, it is still trading at 11x PER, with a 4% dividend yield, 6x EV/EBITDA, and 1.2x PBR. 

Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 24: US$1.6bn+ One-Way; Some Changes to Expectations.

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • SSE 50 and SSE 180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the December 2024 index rebal event.
  • There have been some changes to the SSE 180 expected ADDs/DELs lists since our last insight.

Remember DiDi Global? We Check in on China’s Dominant Rideshare Company and Review Recent Results

By Daniel Hellberg

  • First, we offer a recent history of Didi going back to its June 2021 IPO 
  • Next, we review the company’s annual results from 2020-23 plus Q124
  • Finally, we try to answer the question, “Does Didi need to raise cash soon?”

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: 50 Changes; 11% Turnover; US$3.4bn Round-Trip Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • With 70% of the review period now complete, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) for the CSI Smallcap 500 Index at the close on 13 December.
  • We estimate a one-way turnover of 11.3% at the rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY12.08bn (US$1.7bn). The Information Technology and HealthCare sectors gain at the expense of Industrials.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the CSI Smallcap 500 Index (SH000905 INDEX) since the start of the year with the outperformance gradually picking up.

China Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877.HK) – Negative Growth in 24H1 Seems Inevitable

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Three business segments of Shineway showed negative YoY growth in 24Q1. 24Q2 performance could remain sluggish. We’re not optimistic about the 24H1 results due to the high base in 23H1.
  • It is expected that Shineway’s growth in 24H2 would pick up. If revenue growth of Shineway in 2024 full-year could be double-digit (e.g. 10-15% YoY), it is already good.
  • Shineway is undervalued. It has sufficient cash (cash balance of RMB5.9 billion by 2023) and is willing to distribute dividends (usually twice a year). Shineway is suitable for long-term holding.

Yifeng Pharmacy (603939 CH) – Monday, Apr 15, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Yifeng is a leading pharmacy chain in China with 13,000 stores nationwide, primarily in East and Southcentral regions
  • Revenue is mostly derived from prescription and over-the-counter drugs, with Traditional Chinese Medicine and non-medicine products also contributing
  • Despite already being a top pharmacy chain in China, Yifeng still has room to grow and capture more market share in the industry

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Hello Group Inc (MOMO) – Monday, Apr 15, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Investment opportunity in MOMO, Chinese ADR trading at 70% of net cash and 5x EPS/FCF
  • Core business may be in decline, but management has shown good cost discipline and capital allocation
  • Potential for MOMO to return $200m per year to shareholders, offering potential 50% return on investment as a cigar butt investment similar to HUYA success.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief China: China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Eoptolink Technology , CK Infrastructure Holdings, Great Wall Motor, Legend Biotech Corp, Luxshare Precision Industry, China Construction Bank H, BYD, T.S. Lines, Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (15 Jul) – China TCM, Canvest, Henlius, Hollysys, Second Chance, Anasarda, Rex
  • CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 18 Changes in Dec; Third Plenum; ETF Inflows; Short Sell Crackdown
  • CK Infra (1038 HK): London Calling
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 12 Jul 2024): Roughly Flat Week Ahead of 3rd Plenum, Possible A Short-Covers
  • Legend Biotech (LEGN US) – A Takeover Offer?
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 12 July 2024): Finance, Industry, Infotech Bought
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Jul 2024); Slower Flows Gross and Net (Buy), Still SOEs
  • China Consumption Weekly (15 Jul 2024): Seres, BYD, Guangzhou Automobile,Trip.com
  • T.S. Lines Pre-IPO – Looks like an Opportunistic Listing
  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec 24: Positive Start to the Trade; Some Changes to Expectations



CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 18 Changes in Dec; Third Plenum; ETF Inflows; Short Sell Crackdown

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be 18 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials sector gaining 3 index spots and the Information Technology sector losing 5 spots.
  • We estimate one-way turnover of 3.3% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 22.07bn (US$3bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes. There were ETF inflows last week amid a short selling crackdown as the Third Plenum kicks off.

CK Infra (1038 HK): London Calling

By David Blennerhassett

  • CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK), 75.67%-held by CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK), announced it is considering a second listing on an overseas stock exchange, such as London.
  • A UK-listing makes perfect sense. In excess of 90% of CKI’s FY23 profit was sourced from businesses outside Asia, with ~50% from its UK ops.
  • The wording in the announcement is unclear – a dual primary listing, or a secondary listing? The LSE is also undergoing a listing regime change, effective 29th July.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 12 Jul 2024): Roughly Flat Week Ahead of 3rd Plenum, Possible A Short-Covers

By Travis Lundy

  • The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
  • SOUTHBOUND inflow continues, albeit smaller. SOE Banks/Energy/Telecoms remain a big net buy. Percentage of volume is large. NORTHBOUND saw finance buying. Possible short-covering ahead of new short-selling restrictions/access.
  • AH Premia were up small on average, down small on the liquid pairs. But HSI/HSCEI vs CSI300/500 performance spreads were higher. Third Plenum this week may drive “sentiment.”

Legend Biotech (LEGN US) – A Takeover Offer?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Legend Biotech received takeover interest and hired Centerview Partners to review the offer. Due to the satisfactory clinical results/promising commercialization outlook of Carvykti, Legend Bio is an attractive M&A candidate.
  • Peak sales of Carvykti could exceed US$5 billion. After Carvykti is approved by the FDA/EC for 2L treatment of MM, future valuation leap of legend Bio is becoming more certain.
  • Legend Bio is clearly undervalued. We think reasonable market value range for Legend Bio is about US$12.5 – 15 billion, which means there is decent upward potential for share price.

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 12 July 2024): Finance, Industry, Infotech Bought

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB +15.9bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND bought Financials, Industry, Infotech, etc. They sold Communications (which was a HUGE SOUTHBOUND buy) and Pharma/Healthcare.
  • It is notable that net flows as a percentage of value traded are clearly “short gamma”, which is to say, sector underperformers are being sold, sector outperformers being bought.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Jul 2024); Slower Flows Gross and Net (Buy), Still SOEs

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$7.3bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Major buying was mostly SOEs.
  • The more I watch, the more I think the last few months have had serious national team buying of banks and energy, perhaps ahead of shareholder return policy changes.
  • But valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows – national team and otherwise.

China Consumption Weekly (15 Jul 2024): Seres, BYD, Guangzhou Automobile,Trip.com

By Ming Lu

  • Guangzhou Automobile sales volume of new energy vehicle decreased by 38% YoY in June and by 31% YoY in 1H24.
  • BYD plans to invest US$1 billion to build a factory in Turkey.
  • AliPay announced that foreigners’ consumption amount in China in 1H24 was eight times of last year.

T.S. Lines Pre-IPO – Looks like an Opportunistic Listing

By Clarence Chu

  • T.S. Lines (TSL HK) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • T.S. Lines (TSL) is a container shipping firm primarily operating in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec 24: Positive Start to the Trade; Some Changes to Expectations

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2024.
  • There have been multiple changes to our expected ADDs/DELs list since our last insight.

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Daily Brief China: Chenqi Technology Limited, Remegen , Tianqi Lithium and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Ride-Hailing Operator Chenqi Drops on Hong Kong Debut
  • China Healthcare Weekly (July.14) – CXO’s Disputed Business Model, Remegen Shares Plunged, Kelun Bio
  • Tianqi Warns of $670 Million-Plus Loss Over Lithium Price Plunge


Ride-Hailing Operator Chenqi Drops on Hong Kong Debut

By Caixin Global

  • Chenqi Technology Ltd., operator of the ride-sharing platform OnTime, closed its first trading day in Hong Kong 3.14% below the offering price, after raising $124 million in its initial public offering.
  • Chenqi’s shares closed at HK$33.9 ($4.3) each, recovering from a 14% drop during its debut on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The company’s market cap stood at HK$6.92 billion.
  • Chenqi, also known as Ruqi Mobility, offered more than 30 million shares at HK$35 each in its IPO, raising a net HK$969 million.

China Healthcare Weekly (July.14) – CXO’s Disputed Business Model, Remegen Shares Plunged, Kelun Bio

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • One “unique” feature of China’s CXOs is that they like investment more than drug R&D business, but the investment-driven model will result in “interest-to-conflict”, which actually “crosses the line”.
  • RemeGen’s shares plummet last week. In current situation of investors’ lack of confidence/trust in RemeGen, stock price may not have hit bottom yet, so no need to rush to bottom-fish.
  • For Kelun Bio, if SKB264 fails to deliver good data, valuation would face the risk of pullback. After the lock-up expiry, there could be opportunity to buy at lower price.

Tianqi Warns of $670 Million-Plus Loss Over Lithium Price Plunge

By Caixin Global

  • Chinese lithium giant Tianqi Lithium Corp. (002466.SZ -1.01%) is forecasting a net loss exceeding $670 million for the first half of the year as plummeting lithium prices hurt the bottom line of producers of this essential battery raw material.
  • Tianqi said Tuesday that it anticipates a significant net loss of between 4.9 billion yuan and 5.5 billion yuan ($674 million and $756 million) for the six-month period.
  • This includes a projected net loss of between 983 million yuan and 1.6 billion yuan for the second quarter, which is narrower than the 4 billion-yuan loss reported in the first quarte

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Daily Brief China: DPC Dash, Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical, KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • DPC Dash (1405 HK): Strong 2Q Data Pointing to Underappreciated Growth and Margin Potential
  • Cutting-Edge Drugmaker Biokin Taps Hong Kong Market to Fund Foray Aboard
  • Time To Look Abroad?


DPC Dash (1405 HK): Strong 2Q Data Pointing to Underappreciated Growth and Margin Potential

By Eric Chen

  • The company’ share bucked China catering sector’s down trend and rallied 30% in last few weeks.
  • Its 2Q operating data suggest that its store opening is well on track with healthy SSSG, underpinning strong margin expansion.
  • We believe that market still underestimates its growth and earnings potential which could beat consensus by wide margin. Interim results to be announced in August will be key catalyst.

Cutting-Edge Drugmaker Biokin Taps Hong Kong Market to Fund Foray Aboard

By Caixin Global

  • Chinese innovative drugmaker Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd. has filed with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for an initial public offering (IPO) in an effort to tap fresh funding to support new drug development and overseas expansion.
  • Biokin, already listed in Shanghai, did not disclose the target size of its Hong Kong offering. According to its preliminary prospectus, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., and Citic Securities Co. Ltd. are joint sponsors for the share sale.
  • Founded in 1996, Biokin began as a producer of chemical generic drugs and proprietary Chinese medicines. The company has since 2011 moved on to novel biological drugs, focusing on antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) for cancer treatment.

Time To Look Abroad?

By Douglas Busch

  • US markets suffered a bearish reversal on CPI data. Time look to elsewhere?
  • China looks to be bottoming. Could the region begin to show relative strength?
  • Emerging markets look particularly attractive especially if the dollar trades lower.

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Daily Brief China: Canvest Environmental Protection Group, Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Saint Bella, Baidu , China Communications Services Corp Ltd., Taste Gourmet and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Canvest (1381 HK): Evaluating A Privatisation
  • Henlius (2696 HK): Dilemma as the Scrip Pre-Condition Met and a Substantial Shareholder Emerges
  • Saint Bella Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment China/Hong Kong (July 12)
  • China Communications Services Corp. (552.HK)-Riding the AI Wave…
  • Taste Gourmet (8371 HK): GEM to Mainboard Listing Catalyst in Play
  • Henlius (2696): Here Comes The Scrip Option


Canvest (1381 HK): Evaluating A Privatisation

By David Blennerhassett

  • Since waste-to-energy play Canvest Environmental Protection (1381 HK) announced a possible privatisation from Grandblue Environment (600323 CH) at $4.90/share (a 20.7% premium to undisturbed), shares are up just 6.4%. 
  • There’s a lot to pack in here, not the least being this is an indicative Pre-Conditional Offer.
  • But the fact the announcement mentions rolling over a specific number of shares of the controlling shareholders (7.23%), suggests negotiations are well advanced. So we explore.

Henlius (2696 HK): Dilemma as the Scrip Pre-Condition Met and a Substantial Shareholder Emerges

By Arun George

  • Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) announced that the share alternative pre-condition was satisfied. However, the share alternative offer remains at Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)’s discretion. 
  • Loyal Valley Capital (LVC), a pre-IPO investor, emerged as a substantial shareholder on 10 July, the deadline for submitting letters of interest for the share alternative offer.
  • The likely scenario is that the offer succeeds as the co-founders enter rollover arrangements, and a share alternative is introduced, which is taken by QIA and LVC. 

Saint Bella Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Saint Bella (SAINT HK) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by UBS and Citic Securities.
  • Saint Bella (SB) is a comprehensive family care group in China, focusing on premium services and products that addresses demand from the lifestyle-minded younger generation. 
  • It is the largest postpartum care and recovery group in terms of revenue from ultra-premium postpartum centers in 2023, according to F&S.

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment China/Hong Kong (July 12)

By David Mudd

  • Onshore Equity ETF flows in China continued to be positive for 8th week. Southbound Connect flows in July are lower than June.
  • Baidu, Bilibili and GDS have had positive share price moves on the back of news flow.
  • The container shipping segment has had a sharp pullback on positive Middle East news and cement maker CNBM flags a loss in the first half.

China Communications Services Corp. (552.HK)-Riding the AI Wave…

By Rikki Malik

  • Stable, Steady, State-owned Enterprise with upside from policy push on AI
  • Lowly rated company with a new cyclical growth story in a strategic sector
  • Good balance sheet with the opportunity to raise payouts and yields.

Taste Gourmet (8371 HK): GEM to Mainboard Listing Catalyst in Play

By Sameer Taneja

  • On 5th July 2024, Taste Gourmet (8371 HK)  submitted an application to Hkex to transfer the listing of all its issued Shares from GEM to the Main Board. 
  • The company’s case is strong as it meets all the criteria proposed by the exchange, but there is no assurance that it will obtain relevant approval from the exchange. 
  • Trading at 6.4x/5.2x PE FY24/25e with 25% of the market cap in net cash and a trailing yield of 8.5%, we believe a mainboard listing would provide incremental visibility. 

Henlius (2696): Here Comes The Scrip Option

By David Blennerhassett


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Daily Brief China: Linklogis, Hong Kong Television Network, The United Laboratories International Holdings Limited, B&K Corporation, Lenovo and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Three Adds/Deletes & Capping Changes
  • HKTV (1137 HK): HK$2.15 Share Buyback Is Unconditional
  • The United Laboratories Company Ltd (3933 HK) – A Sub Five PE Bargain!
  • Pre-IPO B&K Corporation – Valuation Performance Could Be Disappointing
  • Morning Views Asia: Lenovo


Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Three Adds/Deletes & Capping Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • The review cutoff date for the September rebalance of the HSIII was 28 June. The changes will be announced on 16 August and become effective after the close 6 September.
  • There could be 3 changes to the index with some inclusions driven by potential addition to the Hang Seng Composite Index. That could lead to buying via Southbound Stock Connect.
  • Capping will result in passives buying Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) and JD.com (9618 HK) while selling Meituan (3690 HK) and Tencent (700 HK).

HKTV (1137 HK): HK$2.15 Share Buyback Is Unconditional

By Arun George

  • The Hong Kong Television Network (1137 HK) vote on the share buyback for a maximum of 100.0m or 11.25% of outstanding shares at HK$2.15 was comfortably passed at the EGM.
  • The partial offer is designed to help the co-founders bypass the creeper rule and increase their grip on the shares. There is no minimum acceptance condition. 
  • While the IFA opines the offer is fair and reasonable, it is unattractive. A 100% minority participation rate implies a minimum proration of 20.74%. The offer closes on 23 July.  

The United Laboratories Company Ltd (3933 HK) – A Sub Five PE Bargain!

By Avien Pillay

  • At a 4.6 FPE, you would expect to find some real concerns, however there are no gremlins anywhere?  
  • What you are buying is an antibiotic developer and distributor who is performing better than expected, given that the antibiotic market is thriving.
  • The extensive pipeline including GLP-1 drugs is still at an early stage/midway through development, however at this valuation, you are probably not paying for it!

Pre-IPO B&K Corporation – Valuation Performance Could Be Disappointing

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The growth factor drug market is highly competitive. Many competing products have been on the market for many years with NRDL reimbursement coverage and also accumulated rich recognition from doctors/patients.
  • Even if Pro-101 is approved for market launch, B&K may have to reduce its price largely and invest heavily in market education/promotion. B&K’s commercialization capability still needs to be verified.
  • Valuation of B&K would be lower than peers. It is hard for B&K to receive expected valuation premium since its latest round of post investment valuation is already RMB3.3 billion.

Morning Views Asia: Lenovo

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: UMP Healthcare, Hong Kong Television Network, Dobot, EC Healthcare, Netdragon Websoft, New Horizon Health , PT Pertamina (Persero) and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • UMP Healthcare (722 HK): Parsing the Announcement on The Major One-Time Gain
  • HKTV (1137 HK)’s Low-Balled Buyback Gets The Nod
  • Shenzhen Yuejiang Technology IPO: What’s The IPO Valuation? Long-Term Growth Prospects
  • EC Healthcare (2138 HK): Shares at Multi-Year Low; Still Not a Value Buying Opportunity
  • Netdragon (777 HK) – Tuesday, Apr 9, 2024
  • New Horizon Health (6606 HK) – Behind the Trading Suspension and the Outlook
  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , PT Pertamina (Persero), Sunny Optical Technology Group


UMP Healthcare (722 HK): Parsing the Announcement on The Major One-Time Gain

By Sameer Taneja

  • The company announced a settlement with its subsidiary of 18 mn HKD. This is material as we estimate that core profit for FY24 (June-end) would be 30-35 mn HKD. 
  • This settlement will be paid in cash (tranches) as it involves making the company whole on a vendor’s profit guarantee shortfall. It boosts cash and investments >340 mn HKD. 
  • The stock is cheap, with net cash almost equal to the market capitalization, an 11x PE (on core profit), and a 9% dividend yield. 

HKTV (1137 HK)’s Low-Balled Buyback Gets The Nod

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back in May, online shopping platform play Hong Kong Television Network (1137 HK) announced a buy-back of 11.25% of shares out, at $2.15/share, a mediocre 20.8% premium to undisturbed.
  • The thrust of the Offer was to lift co-founder Ricky Wong’s stake to 51.55% from 45.75%.  But that required independent shareholders approving a whitewash waiver not to make a MGO.
  • I didn’t expect shareholder pushback. And there wasn’t. Tendering closes on the 23rd July. Keep an eye on CCASS movements. Shares gained 4.7% yesterday prior to the EGM outcome. Mmm.

Shenzhen Yuejiang Technology IPO: What’s The IPO Valuation? Long-Term Growth Prospects

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Shenzhen Yuejiang Technology (Dobot), a Shenzhen-based cobot company with a diversified customer base globally, filed publicly for Hong Kong IPO.
  • The terms of the IPO were not disclosed. The robotics company plans to increase production capacity due to high demand in the coming years.
  • Dobot may be trading above the last round valuation of ~RMB3.5b, but I believe investors should focus on the company’s long-term growth prospects and rapidly growing TAM.

EC Healthcare (2138 HK): Shares at Multi-Year Low; Still Not a Value Buying Opportunity

By Tina Banerjee

  • EC Healthcare (2138 HK) reported muted FY24 result. While revenue increased 9% YoY to a record high of HK$4.2B, EBITDA and net profit declined 10% and 85%, YoY, respectively.
  • The reopening of borders saw a slower-than-anticipated recovery in revenue from Chinese Mainland medical tourism. The prevailing high interest rate, inflationary pressure, and economic uncertainties have made the operations challenging.
  • EC Healthcare shares plunged ~70% over the last one year. Although the company has long-term growth drivers and margin levers, there is short-term uncertainties over financial performance improvement.

Netdragon (777 HK) – Tuesday, Apr 9, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • NetDragon’s stock is priced at 11.0 HKD with 531 million shares and a market cap of 5,870 HKD
  • Company completed a reverse merger listing for its education business, causing some complications, but gaming business is seen as a hidden gem with growth potential
  • NetDragon, operated by the Liu family, has a history of successful business incubation and has returned around 50% of its market capitalization to shareholders in the past three years

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


New Horizon Health (6606 HK) – Behind the Trading Suspension and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • New Horizon Health is a “big client” of Deloitte, who, however, still delay the publication of 2023 results. This leads us to take the issues raised by Deloitte more seriously.
  • It’s uncertain whether New Horizon Health would obtain the audit report with non-qualified opinion or “survive” the independent investigation.2023 Annual Report/2024 Mid-Year Report/2024 Annual Report may continue to be postponed.
  • If New Horizon Health fails provide reasonable explanation, investors don’t need to spend any more time on the Company with no integrity.We forecast the timetable for the resumption of trading.

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , PT Pertamina (Persero), Sunny Optical Technology Group

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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