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China

Daily Brief China: Canvest Environmental Protection Group, Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Saint Bella, Baidu , China Communications Services Corp Ltd., Taste Gourmet and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Canvest (1381 HK): Evaluating A Privatisation
  • Henlius (2696 HK): Dilemma as the Scrip Pre-Condition Met and a Substantial Shareholder Emerges
  • Saint Bella Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment China/Hong Kong (July 12)
  • China Communications Services Corp. (552.HK)-Riding the AI Wave…
  • Taste Gourmet (8371 HK): GEM to Mainboard Listing Catalyst in Play
  • Henlius (2696): Here Comes The Scrip Option


Canvest (1381 HK): Evaluating A Privatisation

By David Blennerhassett

  • Since waste-to-energy play Canvest Environmental Protection (1381 HK) announced a possible privatisation from Grandblue Environment (600323 CH) at $4.90/share (a 20.7% premium to undisturbed), shares are up just 6.4%. 
  • There’s a lot to pack in here, not the least being this is an indicative Pre-Conditional Offer.
  • But the fact the announcement mentions rolling over a specific number of shares of the controlling shareholders (7.23%), suggests negotiations are well advanced. So we explore.

Henlius (2696 HK): Dilemma as the Scrip Pre-Condition Met and a Substantial Shareholder Emerges

By Arun George

  • Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) announced that the share alternative pre-condition was satisfied. However, the share alternative offer remains at Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)’s discretion. 
  • Loyal Valley Capital (LVC), a pre-IPO investor, emerged as a substantial shareholder on 10 July, the deadline for submitting letters of interest for the share alternative offer.
  • The likely scenario is that the offer succeeds as the co-founders enter rollover arrangements, and a share alternative is introduced, which is taken by QIA and LVC. 

Saint Bella Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Saint Bella (SAINT HK) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by UBS and Citic Securities.
  • Saint Bella (SB) is a comprehensive family care group in China, focusing on premium services and products that addresses demand from the lifestyle-minded younger generation. 
  • It is the largest postpartum care and recovery group in terms of revenue from ultra-premium postpartum centers in 2023, according to F&S.

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment China/Hong Kong (July 12)

By David Mudd

  • Onshore Equity ETF flows in China continued to be positive for 8th week. Southbound Connect flows in July are lower than June.
  • Baidu, Bilibili and GDS have had positive share price moves on the back of news flow.
  • The container shipping segment has had a sharp pullback on positive Middle East news and cement maker CNBM flags a loss in the first half.

China Communications Services Corp. (552.HK)-Riding the AI Wave…

By Rikki Malik

  • Stable, Steady, State-owned Enterprise with upside from policy push on AI
  • Lowly rated company with a new cyclical growth story in a strategic sector
  • Good balance sheet with the opportunity to raise payouts and yields.

Taste Gourmet (8371 HK): GEM to Mainboard Listing Catalyst in Play

By Sameer Taneja

  • On 5th July 2024, Taste Gourmet (8371 HK)  submitted an application to Hkex to transfer the listing of all its issued Shares from GEM to the Main Board. 
  • The company’s case is strong as it meets all the criteria proposed by the exchange, but there is no assurance that it will obtain relevant approval from the exchange. 
  • Trading at 6.4x/5.2x PE FY24/25e with 25% of the market cap in net cash and a trailing yield of 8.5%, we believe a mainboard listing would provide incremental visibility. 

Henlius (2696): Here Comes The Scrip Option

By David Blennerhassett


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Daily Brief China: Linklogis, Hong Kong Television Network, The United Laboratories International Holdings Limited, B&K Corporation, Lenovo and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Three Adds/Deletes & Capping Changes
  • HKTV (1137 HK): HK$2.15 Share Buyback Is Unconditional
  • The United Laboratories Company Ltd (3933 HK) – A Sub Five PE Bargain!
  • Pre-IPO B&K Corporation – Valuation Performance Could Be Disappointing
  • Morning Views Asia: Lenovo


Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Three Adds/Deletes & Capping Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • The review cutoff date for the September rebalance of the HSIII was 28 June. The changes will be announced on 16 August and become effective after the close 6 September.
  • There could be 3 changes to the index with some inclusions driven by potential addition to the Hang Seng Composite Index. That could lead to buying via Southbound Stock Connect.
  • Capping will result in passives buying Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) and JD.com (9618 HK) while selling Meituan (3690 HK) and Tencent (700 HK).

HKTV (1137 HK): HK$2.15 Share Buyback Is Unconditional

By Arun George

  • The Hong Kong Television Network (1137 HK) vote on the share buyback for a maximum of 100.0m or 11.25% of outstanding shares at HK$2.15 was comfortably passed at the EGM.
  • The partial offer is designed to help the co-founders bypass the creeper rule and increase their grip on the shares. There is no minimum acceptance condition. 
  • While the IFA opines the offer is fair and reasonable, it is unattractive. A 100% minority participation rate implies a minimum proration of 20.74%. The offer closes on 23 July.  

The United Laboratories Company Ltd (3933 HK) – A Sub Five PE Bargain!

By Avien Pillay

  • At a 4.6 FPE, you would expect to find some real concerns, however there are no gremlins anywhere?  
  • What you are buying is an antibiotic developer and distributor who is performing better than expected, given that the antibiotic market is thriving.
  • The extensive pipeline including GLP-1 drugs is still at an early stage/midway through development, however at this valuation, you are probably not paying for it!

Pre-IPO B&K Corporation – Valuation Performance Could Be Disappointing

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The growth factor drug market is highly competitive. Many competing products have been on the market for many years with NRDL reimbursement coverage and also accumulated rich recognition from doctors/patients.
  • Even if Pro-101 is approved for market launch, B&K may have to reduce its price largely and invest heavily in market education/promotion. B&K’s commercialization capability still needs to be verified.
  • Valuation of B&K would be lower than peers. It is hard for B&K to receive expected valuation premium since its latest round of post investment valuation is already RMB3.3 billion.

Morning Views Asia: Lenovo

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: UMP Healthcare, Hong Kong Television Network, Dobot, EC Healthcare, Netdragon Websoft, New Horizon Health , PT Pertamina (Persero) and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • UMP Healthcare (722 HK): Parsing the Announcement on The Major One-Time Gain
  • HKTV (1137 HK)’s Low-Balled Buyback Gets The Nod
  • Shenzhen Yuejiang Technology IPO: What’s The IPO Valuation? Long-Term Growth Prospects
  • EC Healthcare (2138 HK): Shares at Multi-Year Low; Still Not a Value Buying Opportunity
  • Netdragon (777 HK) – Tuesday, Apr 9, 2024
  • New Horizon Health (6606 HK) – Behind the Trading Suspension and the Outlook
  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , PT Pertamina (Persero), Sunny Optical Technology Group


UMP Healthcare (722 HK): Parsing the Announcement on The Major One-Time Gain

By Sameer Taneja

  • The company announced a settlement with its subsidiary of 18 mn HKD. This is material as we estimate that core profit for FY24 (June-end) would be 30-35 mn HKD. 
  • This settlement will be paid in cash (tranches) as it involves making the company whole on a vendor’s profit guarantee shortfall. It boosts cash and investments >340 mn HKD. 
  • The stock is cheap, with net cash almost equal to the market capitalization, an 11x PE (on core profit), and a 9% dividend yield. 

HKTV (1137 HK)’s Low-Balled Buyback Gets The Nod

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back in May, online shopping platform play Hong Kong Television Network (1137 HK) announced a buy-back of 11.25% of shares out, at $2.15/share, a mediocre 20.8% premium to undisturbed.
  • The thrust of the Offer was to lift co-founder Ricky Wong’s stake to 51.55% from 45.75%.  But that required independent shareholders approving a whitewash waiver not to make a MGO.
  • I didn’t expect shareholder pushback. And there wasn’t. Tendering closes on the 23rd July. Keep an eye on CCASS movements. Shares gained 4.7% yesterday prior to the EGM outcome. Mmm.

Shenzhen Yuejiang Technology IPO: What’s The IPO Valuation? Long-Term Growth Prospects

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Shenzhen Yuejiang Technology (Dobot), a Shenzhen-based cobot company with a diversified customer base globally, filed publicly for Hong Kong IPO.
  • The terms of the IPO were not disclosed. The robotics company plans to increase production capacity due to high demand in the coming years.
  • Dobot may be trading above the last round valuation of ~RMB3.5b, but I believe investors should focus on the company’s long-term growth prospects and rapidly growing TAM.

EC Healthcare (2138 HK): Shares at Multi-Year Low; Still Not a Value Buying Opportunity

By Tina Banerjee

  • EC Healthcare (2138 HK) reported muted FY24 result. While revenue increased 9% YoY to a record high of HK$4.2B, EBITDA and net profit declined 10% and 85%, YoY, respectively.
  • The reopening of borders saw a slower-than-anticipated recovery in revenue from Chinese Mainland medical tourism. The prevailing high interest rate, inflationary pressure, and economic uncertainties have made the operations challenging.
  • EC Healthcare shares plunged ~70% over the last one year. Although the company has long-term growth drivers and margin levers, there is short-term uncertainties over financial performance improvement.

Netdragon (777 HK) – Tuesday, Apr 9, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • NetDragon’s stock is priced at 11.0 HKD with 531 million shares and a market cap of 5,870 HKD
  • Company completed a reverse merger listing for its education business, causing some complications, but gaming business is seen as a hidden gem with growth potential
  • NetDragon, operated by the Liu family, has a history of successful business incubation and has returned around 50% of its market capitalization to shareholders in the past three years

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


New Horizon Health (6606 HK) – Behind the Trading Suspension and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • New Horizon Health is a “big client” of Deloitte, who, however, still delay the publication of 2023 results. This leads us to take the issues raised by Deloitte more seriously.
  • It’s uncertain whether New Horizon Health would obtain the audit report with non-qualified opinion or “survive” the independent investigation.2023 Annual Report/2024 Mid-Year Report/2024 Annual Report may continue to be postponed.
  • If New Horizon Health fails provide reasonable explanation, investors don’t need to spend any more time on the Company with no integrity.We forecast the timetable for the resumption of trading.

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , PT Pertamina (Persero), Sunny Optical Technology Group

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Canvest Environmental Protection Group, China Traditional Chinese Medicine, SHEIN, ICBC (H), Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Luxshare Precision Industry, GoodWe Technologies , Cathay Pacific Airways, Dobot, BYD and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Canvest Environmental (1381 HK): Possible Privatisation at HK$4.90
  • Merger Arb Mondays (08 Jul) – China TCM, L’Occitane, A8 Media, GA Pack, Asia Cement, Hollysys, MMA
  • SHEIN/Temu/AliExpress: As US Mulls Reforming “De Minimis” Rules, EU Could Take Similar Action
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 5 Jul 2024); SOE Bank and SOE Petro-Energy Flows Dominate
  • Shanghai Henlius Biotech Update (2696.HK) – The Story Behind Privatization
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 5 July 2024): Finance, Consumer, IT Sold, Utilities Bought
  • STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Outright Adds Outperforming Outright Deletes
  • Cathay Pacific (293 HK, BUY, TP:HKD):
  • Shenzhen Yuejiang Technology IPO Preview: Dobot Files to List IPO on Hong Kong Stock Exchange
  • China Consumption Weekly (8 Jul 2024): BYD, Seres, Tesla, Microsoft, XHS, Mixue


Canvest Environmental (1381 HK): Possible Privatisation at HK$4.90

By Arun George

  • Grandblue Environment Co A (600323 CH) disclosed a potential pre-conditional privatisation of Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK) at HK$4.90 per share, a 20.7% premium to the last close price. 
  • Completing the capital injection from SOE entities into the offeror is a precondition. Grandblue also proposes that the controlling shareholder roll over 7.23% of its effective 44.75% stake. 
  • While not a knockout bid, the offer is reasonable. Shareholders with blocking stakes should support a binding proposal. Timing is the key risk. 


SHEIN/Temu/AliExpress: As US Mulls Reforming “De Minimis” Rules, EU Could Take Similar Action

By Daniel Hellberg

  • EU, like the US, is considering lowering “de minimis” import threshold, soon
  • Lowering import value thresholds or raising reporting requirements could make SHEIN/Temu/AliExpress goods more expensive, and fulfillment more onerous
  • Threat of “de minimis” changes coming just as SHEIN reportedly seeks an IPO

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 5 Jul 2024); SOE Bank and SOE Petro-Energy Flows Dominate

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$10.9bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Banks were a big buy.
  • The more I watch, the more I think the last few months have had serious national team buying of banks and energy, perhaps ahead of shareholder return policy changes.
  • But valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows – national team and otherwise.

Shanghai Henlius Biotech Update (2696.HK) – The Story Behind Privatization

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Fosun’s preferred arrangement for Henlius is to list the Company in A-shares.Since IPO in A-shares failed and Henlius has begun to generate profits, Fosun finally feels the need for privatization.
  • Due to its “flaws”, undervaluation of Henlius in the Hong Kong stock market is difficult to fundamentally change. So, for conservative/cautious investors, Fosun’s one-time acquisition at a 30% premium is attractive.
  • The Potential Share Alternative Offer seems a good option, but it is uncertain whether investors are still willing to believe in Fosun’s “good story” – the future re-listing is uncertain.

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 5 July 2024): Finance, Consumer, IT Sold, Utilities Bought

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 13.9bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND bought utilities and raw materials and sold everything else, especially consumer names. Appliances remain on the sell side.
  • It is notable that net flows as a percentage of value traded are clearly “short gamma”, which is to say, sector underperformers are being sold, not bought.

STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Outright Adds Outperforming Outright Deletes

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the September rebalance ends 30 July. We expect the changes to be announced 30 August with the implementation taking place after the close on 13 September.
  • We forecast 6 changes for the index, including migrations between the STAR 100 Index and the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX).
  • Excluding the migrations, the potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes since the start of the calendar year and there could be further outperformance over the next few weeks.

Cathay Pacific (293 HK, BUY, TP:HKD):

By Mohshin Aziz

  • Operations are on track with earlier guidance given during FY23 results, loads and yields are healthy, with UK and North American performing better than expected  
  • Will buyback and cancel remaining 97.7m preference shares for a sum of HKD10b by end of July 2024. Shareholder dilution has been avoided  
  • Cathay Pacific is a value BUY, our target price of HK$9.90 (+24% UPSIDE) implies 10x FY2024 PE, parity multiple against its arch-rival Singapore Airlines (SIA SP) 

Shenzhen Yuejiang Technology IPO Preview: Dobot Files to List IPO on Hong Kong Stock Exchange

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Shenzhen Yuejiang Technology (Dobot), a China-based cobot company, filed for a Hong Kong IPO. Cobots are robots with operational robotic arms intended for collaboration within a shared space.
  • Dobot was backed by CICC, CRRC VC, Greenpine Growth, Qianhai Equity, and China Internet Investment Fund, among others. The company was founded in 2015 in Shenzhen, PRC.
  • The offering may attract significant investor interest after South Korea’s robotics company Doosan Robotics could raise ~$318M in October 2023.

China Consumption Weekly (8 Jul 2024): BYD, Seres, Tesla, Microsoft, XHS, Mixue

By Ming Lu

  • BYD’s sales volume increased by 35% YoY in June and by 39% YoY in 2Q24.
  • Tesla’s Model Y is on the state-owned corporation procurement catalogs.
  • Microsoft plans to close its franchised store chain in China due to the weak demand for Surface.

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Daily Brief China: L’Occitane, ESR Group , ASM Pacific Technology, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences , JD Logistics and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Sermsuk, L’Occitane, Shinko Electric, MMA Offshore, Hollysys
  • Weekly Deals Digest (07 Jul) – ESR, L’Occitane, Hollysys, Aisin, Honda, Sanil, Shift Up, Timee
  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep 24: Reference Period Over; One Change Likely; US$733mn One-Way
  • Asian Dividend Gems: Chow Tai Fook Jewellery
  • China Healthcare Weekly (July.7) – MNCs’ Next Move In Licensing Deals, Topchoice, Junshi’s Trouble
  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Final Ranks and Updated Flow Expectations


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Sermsuk, L’Occitane, Shinko Electric, MMA Offshore, Hollysys

By David Blennerhassett


Weekly Deals Digest (07 Jul) – ESR, L’Occitane, Hollysys, Aisin, Honda, Sanil, Shift Up, Timee

By Arun George


Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep 24: Reference Period Over; One Change Likely; US$733mn One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
  • The reference period for the September 2024 index rebal event is now complete. In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for index changes.
  • Our current estimates suggest one-way flows due to index changes and capping could be around US$733mn but that could change by early September 2024.

Asian Dividend Gems: Chow Tai Fook Jewellery

By Douglas Kim

  • Chow Tai Fook Jewellery’s shares are down 28.2% YTD, sharply underperforming the Hang Seng Index which is up 6% in the same period. We believe this divergence is excessive. 
  • Chow Tai Fook’s dividend yield averaged 4.8% from FY20 to FY24. Its annual dividend payout averaged 107% in the same period.
  • Chai Tai Fook is currently trading at attractive valuations. It is trading at P/E of 10.1x, EV/EBITDA of 7.5x, and P/B of 2.9x based on FY25 consensus earnings estimates. 

China Healthcare Weekly (July.7) – MNCs’ Next Move In Licensing Deals, Topchoice, Junshi’s Trouble

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • For all licensing cooperation with MNCs, we recommend that investors wait to see what MNCs’ next move is before deciding whether the cooperation is really promising.
  • Topchoice showed good business growth in 24Q2. Our biggest concern for Topchoice is that the unit price per customer may further decrease in the future, thereby affecting revenue/profit growth.
  • Junshi’s sales growth picked up in 24Q1, but concerns on Junshi persist. We don’t think Junshi is undervalued and its valuation should be lower than that of peers.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Final Ranks and Updated Flow Expectations

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
  • In mid-June 2024, we had two expected ADDs and DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event and they remain unchanged even after the end of the reference period.
  • However, our capping flow expectations continue to change as the pro-forma post-rebalance weights change with share prices. In this insight, we have provided our latest flow estimates.

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Daily Brief China: SHEIN, J&T Global Express , Hang Seng Index and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • SHEIN: Teaming up with Reliance Retail to Re-Enter India. A Win-Win Move
  • HK CEO & Director Dealings (5th Jul 2024): J&T Global Express, Flat Glass, Lifetech Scientific, PCCW
  • EQD | Will the HSI Keep Falling In July?


SHEIN: Teaming up with Reliance Retail to Re-Enter India. A Win-Win Move

By Devi Subhakesan

  • SHEIN’s fast-fashion apparel is set to hit India through Reliance Retail’s platforms, marking a major comeback after the 2020 ban.
  • This partnership could be a win-win, tapping into India’s booming fashion demand and offering Shein access to the world’s largest youth market, ahead of its proposed IPO.
  • With Shein’s affordable styles and Reliance’s extensive network, this alliance targets the youth market, challenging brands like Tata Group’s Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) owned Zudio.

HK CEO & Director Dealings (5th Jul 2024): J&T Global Express, Flat Glass, Lifetech Scientific, PCCW

By David Blennerhassett


EQD | Will the HSI Keep Falling In July?

By Nico Rosti

  • After an explosive rally in April, the Hang Seng Index has been in a downtrend since mid-May, many are wondering where the index is headed next.
  • July 2024, based on our seasonal pattern analysis, does not have a great chance to close higher (it could, but the odds are not good).
  • If the index goes down in the next 2 weeks, buy the 17600-17300 price area.

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Daily Brief China: Samvardhana Motherson Automotive Systems Group BV, Hozon New Energy Automobile Co Ltd and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Road King Infrastructure, Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd
  • Hozon New Energy Automobile Pre-IPO Tearsheet


Morning Views Asia: Road King Infrastructure, Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Hozon New Energy Automobile Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Hozon New Energy Automobile Co Ltd (1850123D CH) seeks to raise up to US$1bn in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by CICC, MS, Citic, ABCI and CMBI.
  • Hozon New Energy Automobile (HNEA) is a NEV technology company which sells cars under the Neta brand. The prices of its vehicles generally range between US$15,000 to US$45,000. 
  • The firm has been expanding into the more profitable mid-to-high-end market segment and replicating its local success in overseas markets.

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Daily Brief China: ESR Group , Shougang Fushan Resources, China Vanke , UGenix Biotech and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • ESR Group (1821 HK): Consortium’s Expansion Talks Suggest Progress
  • Fushan Energy (639 HK): Coking Coal Prices To Strengthen With Anglo Accident
  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust
  • Pre-IPO UGenix Biotech – Future Growth Potential Is Highly Uncertain


ESR Group (1821 HK): Consortium’s Expansion Talks Suggest Progress

By Arun George

  • Bloomberg reports that the bidding consortium is in talks to bring in other partners, such as QIA, PIF, and CPP Investment Board, to aid in privatising ESR Group (1821 HK).
  • Warburg Pincus and OMERS have blocking stakes for a Cayman scheme. Warburg Pincus is seemingly supportive, and the consortium’s expansion talks suggest confidence in meeting OMERS’ price expectations.
  • Our best guess is that an offer is around HK$14.00. ESR’s current valuation is undemanding, with its forward EV/EBITDA multiple at a 40% discount compared to the median peers’ multiple.

Fushan Energy (639 HK): Coking Coal Prices To Strengthen With Anglo Accident

By Sameer Taneja

  • Shougang Fushan Resources (639 HK) is a play on strengthening coking coal prices with downside protection due to its net cash reserves of 1.1 bn USD (Vs. Mkt Cap 2.1).
  • At the lower end of the cost curve, its EBITDA margins have averaged 54% (last 16 years), with its lowest EBITDA number of 19% in FY15.
  • With an 80% payout, the company trades at a trailing yield of 9% (the average spot price assumed is 1900 RMB/ton).

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Pre-IPO UGenix Biotech – Future Growth Potential Is Highly Uncertain

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Although UGenix is a genetic technology company focusing on prenatal testing/precision oncology, it was the large-scale COVID-19 testing demand that made UGenix’s overall revenue grow rapidly, which, however, is unsustainable.
  • NIPT market size is far less than expected. The clinical need for NGS has not developed as rigid demand. Restrictions on companion diagnosis pricing indicate market space would be compressed.
  • The business of both prenatal testing and precision oncology are not easy. Due to uncertain commercialization outlook/profitability and other negative factors, UGenix’s stock price after IPO could underperform.

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Daily Brief China: China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Stella International, ASM Pacific Technology, Chenqi Technology Limited and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • China TCM (570.HK) Update – Behind The Share Price Plunge and Prospects for Privatization Progress
  • HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September
  • HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: ASM Pacific (522) Could Replace Ping An Health (1833); US$1bn Trade
  • Chenqi Technology IPO – Smallest in Scale, Sentiment Might Not Be the Best


China TCM (570.HK) Update – Behind The Share Price Plunge and Prospects for Privatization Progress

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The slow progress of privatization is related to recent high-level changes in CNPGC. Decisions on SOE deals with “strategic purpose” require careful considerations, not based on “one leader’s personal preferences”.
  • Based on public information, we cannot find convincing reason to prove that CNPGC has changed its mind.There’re rumors that China TCM’s privatization is still considered important project on the agenda.
  • China TCM’s has strong fundamentals to support valuation. If there is no announcement, the privatization process is expected to proceed as usual, and we continue to wait for the voting.  

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

By Brian Freitas

  • We see 37 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 25 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September.
  • We expect 32 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 24 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
  • There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: ASM Pacific (522) Could Replace Ping An Health (1833); US$1bn Trade

By Brian Freitas


Chenqi Technology IPO – Smallest in Scale, Sentiment Might Not Be the Best

By Ethan Aw

  • Chenqi Technology Limited (CT HK) is looking to raise up to US$174m in its Hong Kong IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$300m.
  • Chenqi Technology (Chenqi) is a mobility technology and service company in China, founded by the GAC Group and Tencent.
  • In our previous notes, we talked about the company’s historical performance and PHIP updates. In this note, we undertake a quick peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.

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Daily Brief China: L’Occitane, SenseTime Group , Agricultural Bank Of China, CPMC Holdings, APT Medical , Chenqi Technology Limited, Taste Gourmet, Shanghai Voicecomm Information Technology, Will Semiconductor Shan, Robosense Technology and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • L’Occitane (973 HK): Conditional Offer Opens
  • HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 June 2024); Still a Net Buy, but Less Strong. Financials Dominate
  • CPMC Holdings (906.HK) Privatization – Some New Information Worth the Attention
  • STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes & Over US$1.2bn to Trade
  • Chenqi Technology Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Sales Growth Accelerated but Sustainability in Question
  • Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – July 2024
  • Shanghai Voicecomm IPO Preview: Superior Growth Profile and Collaboration With Baidu on ERNIE Bot
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 28 June 2024): BIG Consumer Name Selling Again
  • Robosense IPO Lock-Up Expiry – US$2.8bn Lockup Expiry for 99% of the Stock, CCASS Movement


L’Occitane (973 HK): Conditional Offer Opens

By Arun George

  • The L’Occitane (973 HK) IFA opines that Reinold Geiger’s conditional voluntary cash (HK$34.00) or scrip offer (10 rollover shares for each share, subject to a cap) is fair and reasonable.
  • Irrevocable/Letters of support have nudged lower from 49.83% (17 June) to 47.66% of disinterested shares due to Southeastern Asset Management selling its shares. 
  • Nevertheless, the scrip option, an attractive offer and no vocal opposition should facilitate achieving the minimum acceptance condition. At the last close, the gross spread was 2.4%.

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September

By Brian Freitas


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 June 2024); Still a Net Buy, but Less Strong. Financials Dominate

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$9.3bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Banks were a big buy.
  • It is not clear how much of this is H/A discounts, expected dividend tax removal, shareholder return KPIs for SOE CEOs, upcoming Third Plenum policy, or national team buying…
  • But valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows – national team and otherwise.

CPMC Holdings (906.HK) Privatization – Some New Information Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • ORG purchased 27% of CPMC’s shares at HK$6/share in 2015.After about eight years, Baosteel’s Offer Price was only HK$6.87/share. The annualized return rate was low, which obviously cannot satisfy ORG.
  • Baosteel and CPMC have been in talks for a long time – There may have been some “tacit agreement” between the two parties. The approval process is smooth so far.
  • For acquisitions/consolidation between SOEs, private enterprises usually have limited chances of winning.ORG has financial pressure and the approval process face uncertainties. There would be more negotiations among CPMC, ORG, Baosteel.

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes & Over US$1.2bn to Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the September rebalance ends 31 July. We expect the changes to be announced 30 August with the implementation taking place after the close on 13 September.
  • We expect the index committee to continue using a 6-month minimum listing history resulting in two changes to the index.
  • One-Way turnover is estimated at 3.5% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 4.5bn (US$618m). Passive trackers will need to trade 4-8x ADV on the index changes.

Chenqi Technology Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Sales Growth Accelerated but Sustainability in Question

By Ethan Aw

  • Chenqi Technology Limited (CT HK) is looking to raise US$130m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$300m.
  • Chenqi Technology (Chenqi) is a mobility technology and service company in China, founded by the GAC Group and Tencent.
  • In our previous note, we talked about the company’s historical performance. In this note, we talk about its PHIP updates.

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – July 2024

By Sameer Taneja


Shanghai Voicecomm IPO Preview: Superior Growth Profile and Collaboration With Baidu on ERNIE Bot

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Shanghai Voicecomm Information Technology Co., an IT solution provider for enterprise-level users in China, plans to price its IPO by July 10, 2024 and raise ~HK$664M.
  • CICC is leading the offering in Hong Kong and the IPO is expected to be priced at HK$152.10 per H share, implying a market cap of ~HK$5.4B or ~$690M.
  • Cornerstone investors have agreed to acquire ~1.8M H shares, representing 41% of the offer shares or ~5% of the total outstanding shares.

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 28 June 2024): BIG Consumer Name Selling Again

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 11.8bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND bought utilities and raw materials and sold everything else, especially consumer names. Appliances remain on the sell side.
  • It is notable that net flows as a percentage of value traded are clearly “short gamma”, which is to say, sector underperformers are being sold, not bought. 

Robosense IPO Lock-Up Expiry – US$2.8bn Lockup Expiry for 99% of the Stock, CCASS Movement

By Sumeet Singh

  • Robosense Technology (2498 HK) raised around US$126m in its Hong Kong IPO in Jan 2024. The lockup on its shareholders will expire soon.
  • The company provides LiDAR and perception solutions to its customers. As of March 2024, it had design wins for mass production of LiDAR products with 22 automotive OEMs and suppliers.
  • In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.

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