Category

China

Brief China: A List of Major Korean Companies Shutting Down or Restructuring Their Operations in China and more

By | China

In this briefing:

  1. A List of Major Korean Companies Shutting Down or Restructuring Their Operations in China
  2. CATL Could Be Tesla’s New Battery Supplier- Panasonic in Trouble?
  3. Tencent (700 HK): The Worst Part Online Game Recovered in Q4 Before Restarting License Approval
  4. Navitas Gets An Agreed Deal with BGH
  5. Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) IPO Trading Update – First Day Volume Was Higher than Futu, Close to QTT

1. A List of Major Korean Companies Shutting Down or Restructuring Their Operations in China

In this report, we provide a list of major Korean companies that are either shutting down or restructuring their operations in China. The pace of major Korean companies that are discontinuing part or all of their operations in China in the past year has been UNPRECEDENTED in the past two decades. This trend is very concerning since it suggests deteriorating business conditions and reduced employment in China. 

Of the Korean companies that are pulling out of China, we identified 10 companies below, including Hyundai Motor, Lotte Chilsung Beverage, and Clio that have announced their intentions to pull out most or a portion of their operations in China in the past three months. These ten stocks are up on average 13.5% YTD, compared to KOSPI which is up only 7.1% during the same period.

If we had to make a guess, the potential job losses from the Korean companies mentioned in this report that are pulling out part/all of their operations in China could be about 20,000 to 30,000+. If we add all the other suppliers and companies that are involved in these companies’ value chains in China, the total number of job losses in China could stretch several hundred thousand.

2. CATL Could Be Tesla’s New Battery Supplier- Panasonic in Trouble?

The news released on the 11th of March, about Tesla Motors (TSLA US) choosing CATL (A) (300750 CH) as battery supplier has focused much attention on the two companies and other battery suppliers. CATL which grabbed Panasonic Corp (6752 JP)’s leading position in the industry last year now seems to be grabbing the latter’s key customer as well. The news circulating states that, CATL could power Tesla’s Model 3 cars which Tesla is planning to start assembling at Tesla’s new factory near Shanghai. Following the release of this supposed deal, the stocks of the two companies moved positively, with CATL surging by almost 6.7% while Tesla rose by almost 2.4% during the day.  However, both parties have not commented on this news yet or made any formal announcement regarding such a potential deal. In our Insight, Tesla Drifting Away Could Leave Panasonic Struggling to Gain Traction in China, we mentioned that Tesla was looking to locally source its batteries in China and that CATL could potentially be one such supplier. However, in January this year, it was reported that Tesla had signed a preliminary agreement with China’s Tianjin Lishen to supply batteries for its new Shanghai car factory, making the current news look less believable. Although it seems like the ongoing news about a Tesla-CATL pair up lacks integrity, with CATL sort of denying its intend to work with Tesla (according to an updated news release), the news does look interesting and its effect upon the related companies seems noteworthy.

3. Tencent (700 HK): The Worst Part Online Game Recovered in Q4 Before Restarting License Approval

Pic%205

  • The worst business, online game, recovered in 4Q2018, because small competitors died.
  • The growth rate of game broadcast also bounced up in 4Q2018, as an important competitor Panda TV went bankrupt.
  • In fact, games are only a small part of Tencent and other businesses have been growing strongly.
  • The re-organization in October 2018 controlled expenses well.
  • The 5-year P/E band suggests that Tencent’s stock price has upside of 26%.

4. Navitas Gets An Agreed Deal with BGH

Screenshot%202019 03 21%20at%2011.23.32%20pm

After 6 months of haggling and due diligence, debt negotiation, and structuring, global education company Navitas Ltd (NVT AU) has now signed a Board-recommended Scheme Implementation Deed with a consortium led by Australian Private Equity firm BGH Capital consortium which includes Navitas Founder Rod Jones (also the largest holder at 13%) and AustralianSuper.

The agreed Scheme Price of A$5.825 is a 6% uplift from the original A$5.50 offered in the preliminary, indicative, non-binding offer announced on 10 October 2018 and a 34% premium to the undisturbed price of 9 October 2018 of A$4.35/share.

This history is that the consortium came in at A$5.50 (plus another cash+RollCo scrip offer), a month or so later the company effectively rejected it by not allowing the consortium to do due diligence after management lifted earnings guidance. This upset a number of shareholders. In November the share price ranged from A$4.95-5.25 or so and Chairman Tracey Horton got only 51% support at the AGM that month. The shares fell briefly below A$4.70 in early January this year before BGH came back in mid-January with a “revised indicative offer” of A$5.825 whereupon the shares bounced from about A$4.90 to about A$5.50 then climbed to A$5.60+ on 10mm shares volume in 3 days. 

The shares hovered around A$5.58-5.62 for 6-7 weeks until the beginning of March, briefly traded into the A$5.70s, and then traded back down the last few days this week to the A$5.59-5.63 area.

On Thursday 21 March the shares were halted for the day, StreetTalk had an article about the deal being imminent, and late in the afternoon, the BGH SID was announced. 

Now we start the official process. The Scheme document is expected to be dispatched in May 2019 with a deal completed by end-June or early July. I expect this deal gets up.

5. Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) IPO Trading Update – First Day Volume Was Higher than Futu, Close to QTT

Tiger%20share%20price%20with%20volume

Up Fintech (TIGR US)‘s IPO was priced at US$8/share, above its range of US$5-7/ADS raising at total of US$111m, including the proceeds from the private placement with Interactive Brokers Group, Inc (IBKR US)

In my earlier insights, I looked at the company’s background,  past financial performance, scored the deal on our IPO framework and compared it to Futu Holdings Ltd (FHL US)

In this insight, I will re-visit some of the deal dynamics, comment on share price drivers and provide a table with implied valuations.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief China: CATL Could Be Tesla’s New Battery Supplier- Panasonic in Trouble? and more

By | China

In this briefing:

  1. CATL Could Be Tesla’s New Battery Supplier- Panasonic in Trouble?
  2. Tencent (700 HK): The Worst Part Online Game Recovered in Q4 Before Restarting License Approval
  3. Navitas Gets An Agreed Deal with BGH
  4. Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) IPO Trading Update – First Day Volume Was Higher than Futu, Close to QTT
  5. Tencent Music: A Case of Failing to Live up to Hyped Expectations

1. CATL Could Be Tesla’s New Battery Supplier- Panasonic in Trouble?

The news released on the 11th of March, about Tesla Motors (TSLA US) choosing CATL (A) (300750 CH) as battery supplier has focused much attention on the two companies and other battery suppliers. CATL which grabbed Panasonic Corp (6752 JP)’s leading position in the industry last year now seems to be grabbing the latter’s key customer as well. The news circulating states that, CATL could power Tesla’s Model 3 cars which Tesla is planning to start assembling at Tesla’s new factory near Shanghai. Following the release of this supposed deal, the stocks of the two companies moved positively, with CATL surging by almost 6.7% while Tesla rose by almost 2.4% during the day.  However, both parties have not commented on this news yet or made any formal announcement regarding such a potential deal. In our Insight, Tesla Drifting Away Could Leave Panasonic Struggling to Gain Traction in China, we mentioned that Tesla was looking to locally source its batteries in China and that CATL could potentially be one such supplier. However, in January this year, it was reported that Tesla had signed a preliminary agreement with China’s Tianjin Lishen to supply batteries for its new Shanghai car factory, making the current news look less believable. Although it seems like the ongoing news about a Tesla-CATL pair up lacks integrity, with CATL sort of denying its intend to work with Tesla (according to an updated news release), the news does look interesting and its effect upon the related companies seems noteworthy.

2. Tencent (700 HK): The Worst Part Online Game Recovered in Q4 Before Restarting License Approval

Pic%204

  • The worst business, online game, recovered in 4Q2018, because small competitors died.
  • The growth rate of game broadcast also bounced up in 4Q2018, as an important competitor Panda TV went bankrupt.
  • In fact, games are only a small part of Tencent and other businesses have been growing strongly.
  • The re-organization in October 2018 controlled expenses well.
  • The 5-year P/E band suggests that Tencent’s stock price has upside of 26%.

3. Navitas Gets An Agreed Deal with BGH

Screenshot%202019 03 21%20at%2011.23.32%20pm

After 6 months of haggling and due diligence, debt negotiation, and structuring, global education company Navitas Ltd (NVT AU) has now signed a Board-recommended Scheme Implementation Deed with a consortium led by Australian Private Equity firm BGH Capital consortium which includes Navitas Founder Rod Jones (also the largest holder at 13%) and AustralianSuper.

The agreed Scheme Price of A$5.825 is a 6% uplift from the original A$5.50 offered in the preliminary, indicative, non-binding offer announced on 10 October 2018 and a 34% premium to the undisturbed price of 9 October 2018 of A$4.35/share.

This history is that the consortium came in at A$5.50 (plus another cash+RollCo scrip offer), a month or so later the company effectively rejected it by not allowing the consortium to do due diligence after management lifted earnings guidance. This upset a number of shareholders. In November the share price ranged from A$4.95-5.25 or so and Chairman Tracey Horton got only 51% support at the AGM that month. The shares fell briefly below A$4.70 in early January this year before BGH came back in mid-January with a “revised indicative offer” of A$5.825 whereupon the shares bounced from about A$4.90 to about A$5.50 then climbed to A$5.60+ on 10mm shares volume in 3 days. 

The shares hovered around A$5.58-5.62 for 6-7 weeks until the beginning of March, briefly traded into the A$5.70s, and then traded back down the last few days this week to the A$5.59-5.63 area.

On Thursday 21 March the shares were halted for the day, StreetTalk had an article about the deal being imminent, and late in the afternoon, the BGH SID was announced. 

Now we start the official process. The Scheme document is expected to be dispatched in May 2019 with a deal completed by end-June or early July. I expect this deal gets up.

4. Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) IPO Trading Update – First Day Volume Was Higher than Futu, Close to QTT

Past%20performance

Up Fintech (TIGR US)‘s IPO was priced at US$8/share, above its range of US$5-7/ADS raising at total of US$111m, including the proceeds from the private placement with Interactive Brokers Group, Inc (IBKR US)

In my earlier insights, I looked at the company’s background,  past financial performance, scored the deal on our IPO framework and compared it to Futu Holdings Ltd (FHL US)

In this insight, I will re-visit some of the deal dynamics, comment on share price drivers and provide a table with implied valuations.

5. Tencent Music: A Case of Failing to Live up to Hyped Expectations

Tme6 valcomp

  • One word to describe Tencent Music Entertainment’s (TME US) first conference call post IPO is uninspiring.
  • Management does not provide concrete 2019/1Q19 guidance, but hints margin pressures persist largely due to investments in music contents.
  • We expect that consensus still has to revise down TME’s 2019-20E net profits forecast by 17-26%.
  • On our earnings forecast, TME unattractively trades at 46.3x/37x 2019-20E PE, a whopping 48-52% premium to peers average.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief China: Spotify: Playbook for Online Platforms to Turn Profitable – Implications for Meituan Dianping and more

By | China

In this briefing:

  1. Spotify: Playbook for Online Platforms to Turn Profitable – Implications for Meituan Dianping
  2. New Century Hotel Mgmt IPO Preview: Two-Speed Businesses
  3. Naspers: Softbank Buyback a Guide for Naspers?

1. Spotify: Playbook for Online Platforms to Turn Profitable – Implications for Meituan Dianping

Spot sales

  • Our analysis of how Spotify Technology Sa (SPOT US) turned profitable in 4Q18 reveals three key ingredients: critical mass in sales, GM progression, and core business diversification.
  • With sales reaching critical mass, this would allow fixed costs to be spread out in such a way that opex/unit is lower than GP/unit.
  • Progression in GM and core business diversification strategy are worth monitoring.
  • Implication: Meituan Dianping’s (3690 HK) core business is ahead of iQIYI Inc (IQ US) in terms of profitability inflection point timeline.

2. New Century Hotel Mgmt IPO Preview: Two-Speed Businesses

Revpar%20growth

Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management Group (ZHEKAIH HK)  is a leading hotel group in China engaged in the operation and management of mid-scale and upscale hotel chains. New Century has started pre-marketing for a Hong Kong IPO to raise up to $200 million, according to press reports.

New Century has two business units – hotel operation and hotel management. Overall, we believe that the IPO is unattractive due to the mixed prospects of the two businesses.

3. Naspers: Softbank Buyback a Guide for Naspers?

Sk%20holdcos%20 %20softbank%20group%20%289984%20jp%29%20%282019 02 19%29

Recently, Softbank’s (9984 JP) shares jumped +18% after announcing a $5.5bn share buyback. Using Smartkarma’s holdco monitor, the discount to NAV had widened to around 55% prior to the announcement but is now sitting around 40-45%. There were a few key reasons for the buyback: (1) the Softbank Corp (9434 JP) (KK) IPO netted $20bn, giving the company the flexibility to do the buyback, and (2) Softbank is taking a more disciplined approach to further platform investments.

Both these arguments are also available to Naspers (NPN SJ) management and a move to buy back 5% of market cap is feasible and we believe would narrow the discount. The question is whether management are listening. They have been dismissive of buybacks in the past but this could change.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief China: Naspers: Softbank Buyback a Guide for Naspers? and more

By | China

In this briefing:

  1. Naspers: Softbank Buyback a Guide for Naspers?

1. Naspers: Softbank Buyback a Guide for Naspers?

Sk%20holdcos%20 %20softbank%20group%20%289984%20jp%29%20%282019 02 19%29

Recently, Softbank’s (9984 JP) shares jumped +18% after announcing a $5.5bn share buyback. Using Smartkarma’s holdco monitor, the discount to NAV had widened to around 55% prior to the announcement but is now sitting around 40-45%. There were a few key reasons for the buyback: (1) the Softbank Corp (9434 JP) (KK) IPO netted $20bn, giving the company the flexibility to do the buyback, and (2) Softbank is taking a more disciplined approach to further platform investments.

Both these arguments are also available to Naspers (NPN SJ) management and a move to buy back 5% of market cap is feasible and we believe would narrow the discount. The question is whether management are listening. They have been dismissive of buybacks in the past but this could change.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief China: Naspers: Softbank Buyback a Guide for Naspers? and more

By | China

In this briefing:

  1. Naspers: Softbank Buyback a Guide for Naspers?
  2. Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Outlook Intact, Bottoming Process Continues

1. Naspers: Softbank Buyback a Guide for Naspers?

Sk%20holdcos%20 %20softbank%20group%20%289984%20jp%29%20%282019 02 19%29

Recently, Softbank’s (9984 JP) shares jumped +18% after announcing a $5.5bn share buyback. Using Smartkarma’s holdco monitor, the discount to NAV had widened to around 55% prior to the announcement but is now sitting around 40-45%. There were a few key reasons for the buyback: (1) the Softbank Corp (9434 JP) (KK) IPO netted $20bn, giving the company the flexibility to do the buyback, and (2) Softbank is taking a more disciplined approach to further platform investments.

Both these arguments are also available to Naspers (NPN SJ) management and a move to buy back 5% of market cap is feasible and we believe would narrow the discount. The question is whether management are listening. They have been dismissive of buybacks in the past but this could change.

2. Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Outlook Intact, Bottoming Process Continues

Untitled

We remain constructive overall and continue to believe that global equities (MSCI ACWI) are going through a bottoming process. Opportunities exist but Sector leadership is mixed.  In our February International Strategy document, we explore various themes which lead to our overall constructive outlook, as well as a technical appraisal of each Sector and the investable opportunities therein.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief China: Navitas Gets An Agreed Deal with BGH and more

By | China

In this briefing:

  1. Navitas Gets An Agreed Deal with BGH
  2. Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) IPO Trading Update – First Day Volume Was Higher than Futu, Close to QTT
  3. Tencent Music: A Case of Failing to Live up to Hyped Expectations
  4. Tencent Music (TME): Problems Come from Corporate Clients and In-House Contents, 35% Downside
  5. Global Credit Cycle: Full-Blown Repeat of 2008 Crisis Unlikely…Contrary to Doomsayers

1. Navitas Gets An Agreed Deal with BGH

Screenshot%202019 03 21%20at%2011.23.32%20pm

After 6 months of haggling and due diligence, debt negotiation, and structuring, global education company Navitas Ltd (NVT AU) has now signed a Board-recommended Scheme Implementation Deed with a consortium led by Australian Private Equity firm BGH Capital consortium which includes Navitas Founder Rod Jones (also the largest holder at 13%) and AustralianSuper.

The agreed Scheme Price of A$5.825 is a 6% uplift from the original A$5.50 offered in the preliminary, indicative, non-binding offer announced on 10 October 2018 and a 34% premium to the undisturbed price of 9 October 2018 of A$4.35/share.

This history is that the consortium came in at A$5.50 (plus another cash+RollCo scrip offer), a month or so later the company effectively rejected it by not allowing the consortium to do due diligence after management lifted earnings guidance. This upset a number of shareholders. In November the share price ranged from A$4.95-5.25 or so and Chairman Tracey Horton got only 51% support at the AGM that month. The shares fell briefly below A$4.70 in early January this year before BGH came back in mid-January with a “revised indicative offer” of A$5.825 whereupon the shares bounced from about A$4.90 to about A$5.50 then climbed to A$5.60+ on 10mm shares volume in 3 days. 

The shares hovered around A$5.58-5.62 for 6-7 weeks until the beginning of March, briefly traded into the A$5.70s, and then traded back down the last few days this week to the A$5.59-5.63 area.

On Thursday 21 March the shares were halted for the day, StreetTalk had an article about the deal being imminent, and late in the afternoon, the BGH SID was announced. 

Now we start the official process. The Scheme document is expected to be dispatched in May 2019 with a deal completed by end-June or early July. I expect this deal gets up.

2. Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) IPO Trading Update – First Day Volume Was Higher than Futu, Close to QTT

Xiaomi

Up Fintech (TIGR US)‘s IPO was priced at US$8/share, above its range of US$5-7/ADS raising at total of US$111m, including the proceeds from the private placement with Interactive Brokers Group, Inc (IBKR US)

In my earlier insights, I looked at the company’s background,  past financial performance, scored the deal on our IPO framework and compared it to Futu Holdings Ltd (FHL US)

In this insight, I will re-visit some of the deal dynamics, comment on share price drivers and provide a table with implied valuations.

3. Tencent Music: A Case of Failing to Live up to Hyped Expectations

Tme6 valcomp

  • One word to describe Tencent Music Entertainment’s (TME US) first conference call post IPO is uninspiring.
  • Management does not provide concrete 2019/1Q19 guidance, but hints margin pressures persist largely due to investments in music contents.
  • We expect that consensus still has to revise down TME’s 2019-20E net profits forecast by 17-26%.
  • On our earnings forecast, TME unattractively trades at 46.3x/37x 2019-20E PE, a whopping 48-52% premium to peers average.

4. Tencent Music (TME): Problems Come from Corporate Clients and In-House Contents, 35% Downside

Pic%202

  • Stripping music subscription revenues, we find TME’s revenues from corporate clients are not stable.
  • We believe in-house products will negatively impact margin in 2019.
  • We believe the main business line, social entertainment, will grow strongly. However, we also believe the market is over optimistic about the margin.
  • We believe the stock price has downside of 35%.

5. Global Credit Cycle: Full-Blown Repeat of 2008 Crisis Unlikely…Contrary to Doomsayers

Bis1

The slowing world economy has raised concerns in some quarters about an inflexion point in the global credit cycle that could provoke a repeat of the 2008 crisis due to higher levels of debt.

Governments have mainly contributed to the rise in global debt since 2008, particularly in advanced economies, while China has presided over debt expansion across all non-financial sectors of its economy.

Concerns about the US corporate bond market have centred around the significant growth of the BBB-rated segment since 2008, along with its ability to sustain liquidity given the looming satiation of investor mandates.

China’s corporate debt has risen aggressively and become increasingly risky since 2008, but a sovereign backstop and predominantly domestic funding sources limit any prospective cross-border fallout.

A full-blown repetition of the 2008 debt crisis is unlikely due to: 1) lower cross-border banking linkages, 2) a smaller role for banks in overall credit intermediation, and 3) far lower leverage in the US financial system.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief China: Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Outlook Intact, Bottoming Process Continues and more

By | China

In this briefing:

  1. Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Outlook Intact, Bottoming Process Continues

1. Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Outlook Intact, Bottoming Process Continues

Untitled

We remain constructive overall and continue to believe that global equities (MSCI ACWI) are going through a bottoming process. Opportunities exist but Sector leadership is mixed.  In our February International Strategy document, we explore various themes which lead to our overall constructive outlook, as well as a technical appraisal of each Sector and the investable opportunities therein.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief China: Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Outlook Intact, Bottoming Process Continues and more

By | China

In this briefing:

  1. Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Outlook Intact, Bottoming Process Continues
  2. Repsol, Petronas & Mitsui Make Massive Gas Find in Indonesia

1. Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Outlook Intact, Bottoming Process Continues

Untitled

We remain constructive overall and continue to believe that global equities (MSCI ACWI) are going through a bottoming process. Opportunities exist but Sector leadership is mixed.  In our February International Strategy document, we explore various themes which lead to our overall constructive outlook, as well as a technical appraisal of each Sector and the investable opportunities therein.

2. Repsol, Petronas & Mitsui Make Massive Gas Find in Indonesia

Indonesia en tcm14 11706

Repsol SA (REP SM)‘s discovery is very significant for the companies involved and others around the area, which we discuss in detail below. It is also important for Indonesia, which requires more gas to supply domestic and export demand. It is also positive for exploration sentiment globally, to see a material discovery (Oil Exploration: We Expect a Resurgence in 2019 Pointing to Strong Performance for E&Ps) and this may encourage further M&A in Indonesia such as this deal: (Indonesia Upstream Gas Asset Sale: Positive Read-Through to Other SE Asia Gas Companies).

Source: Repsol

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief China: Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Outlook Intact, Bottoming Process Continues and more

By | China

In this briefing:

  1. Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Outlook Intact, Bottoming Process Continues
  2. Repsol, Petronas & Mitsui Make Massive Gas Find in Indonesia
  3. Free Money Has Flown
  4. PBOC and the CNY Job

1. Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Outlook Intact, Bottoming Process Continues

Untitled

We remain constructive overall and continue to believe that global equities (MSCI ACWI) are going through a bottoming process. Opportunities exist but Sector leadership is mixed.  In our February International Strategy document, we explore various themes which lead to our overall constructive outlook, as well as a technical appraisal of each Sector and the investable opportunities therein.

2. Repsol, Petronas & Mitsui Make Massive Gas Find in Indonesia

Indonesia en tcm14 11706

Repsol SA (REP SM)‘s discovery is very significant for the companies involved and others around the area, which we discuss in detail below. It is also important for Indonesia, which requires more gas to supply domestic and export demand. It is also positive for exploration sentiment globally, to see a material discovery (Oil Exploration: We Expect a Resurgence in 2019 Pointing to Strong Performance for E&Ps) and this may encourage further M&A in Indonesia such as this deal: (Indonesia Upstream Gas Asset Sale: Positive Read-Through to Other SE Asia Gas Companies).

Source: Repsol

3. Free Money Has Flown

The world will soon discover that debt matters.

The announcement of each round of QE increased asset prices, but the effect on Treasury bond prices began to fade when central bank purchases began. This unexpected behaviour revealed a little-known fact: asset prices react more to the expectation of changes in liquidity than to the experience of greater liquidity in financial markets. By contrast, economic growth is subject to the fluctuating standards of commercial bank lending, which follow variations in the demand for credit. Consequently, financial markets lead the economy. Meanwhile, central banks focus on lagging indicators, so they’re followers, not leaders. Bond markets usually predict more accurately than stock markets. To work, central bank easing policies require real risk-adjusted interest rates. However, with those rates below zero in many countries, further reductions would penalise lenders without helping borrowers. Thus, only rising inflation can save stressed debtors.

4. PBOC and the CNY Job

Slide5

Over and over again we have commented on China’s FX market as a gauge for health of China’s markets. It is not just due to FX trading and rate shifts. It is also because it is easier to spot the PBOC gaming the system in the FX market. And we do believe that right now the PBOC is pushing the CNY away from what the value would be otherwise.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief China: New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) Pre-IPO – Improved Profitability Not Driven by Underlying Operations and more

By | China

In this briefing:

  1. New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) Pre-IPO – Improved Profitability Not Driven by Underlying Operations
  2. Ab InBev Asia Pre-IPO – Quick Note – More like CR Beer Rather than Tsingtao

1. New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) Pre-IPO – Improved Profitability Not Driven by Underlying Operations

Gross%20profit%20from%20hotel%20management%20is%20likely%20purely%20profit

Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management Group (ZHEKAIH HK) (ZNCH) is looking to raise US$220m in its upcoming IPO. 

ZNCH is a hotel operator and manager with presence across China. The company grew its revenue by a modest 5% from 2015 to 2017 but made significant improvements in profitability. Gross profit, EBITDA and PATMI grew by 33%, 61%, and 132% CAGR over the same period.

However, the improved profitability has not been driven by underlying operations. The company seemed a tad too ambitious to be expanding via leasing hotel when it already has a large hotel management pipeline.

In this insight, we will look at the company’s financial and operational performance, the drivers of its strong margin expansion, and include some questions for management.

2. Ab InBev Asia Pre-IPO – Quick Note – More like CR Beer Rather than Tsingtao

Heineken%20tie up

Anheuser Busch Inbev Sa/Nv (ABI BB) is looking to list its Asian operations in order to lighten its debt burden. The listing will probably be in Hong Kong and the company could raise around US$5bn at a valuation of around US$70bn.

In my earlier insight, Ab InBev Asia Pre-IPO – A Brief History of the Asia Pacific Operations – Eeking Out Growth in China, I looked at how the Asian operations of ABI have shaped up over the past few years.  

In this insight, I’ll do a quick comparison of the past financial performance of China Resources Beer Holdin (291 HK) and Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK).

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.