China

• Pony AI (PONY US)  an autonomous mobility solutions provider, is looking to raise up to US$300m in its US IPO. 
• As per Frost & Sullivan, Pony AI was among the first companies in China to obtain licenses to operate fully driverless robotaxis in all four Tier-1 cities in China.
• In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

• Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m, including over-allocation, in its Hong Kong IPO. 
• Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading updates.

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Shui On Land’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”.

• Together with the just-announced HK$0.40 special DPS, SITC International (1308 HK) has already handed back HK$1.12/share to shareholders YTD, realising a dividend yield of 6.5%.
• Its 3Q24 performance is impressive, with revenue surging 56.6% YoY. Both volume (+13.4%) and average freight rates (+44.1%) have exhibited solid momentum. 
• While the consensus forecasts have been upgraded by 7-11% since the 1H24 result, there appears more room to go. FY24 ROE is now expected to be 32.2%.

• Pony AI, a founder-led global autonomous driving company, filed for an IPO in the United States and may raise up to $300M on the Nasdaq exchange.  
• The technology company operates fully driverless robotaxis (L4) in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, Mainland China.
• Pony AI has raised ~$1.4B in equity financing from top-tier investors, including Toyota Motor, HongShan, IDG Capital, 5Y Capital, ClearVue Partners, and Eight Roads Ventures, among others.

• Biostar’s revenue growth decreased obviously in the first five months in 2024. Under the fierce competition and anti-corruption campaign, the expectation for the commercialization performance of Biostar is not high.
• Although Biostar has invested a lot of resources in market exposure, high customer concentration indicates that the Company faces challenges in marketing/customer relationship expansion. Biostar has also encountered overcapacity issues.
• After Series E Financing, Biostar’s post-investment valuation was RMB4.49 billion. But we’re not optimistic about the outlook of Biostar. This valuation could be difficult to achieve in HK stock market.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Adani Green Energy

• China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) raised around US$750m in its Hong Kong IPO, after pricing at the top-end.
• China Resources Beverage manufactures and sells packaged drinking water and RTD soft beverages in China.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

• On the 27th September, China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK) (CMCDI) teased a share buyback and a special dividend. But as of today. no firm details have been forthcoming. 
• CMCDI has also now offered to reduce management fees by 25 basis points in the new management agreement, which will be voted on  by independent shareholders in November/December.
• This concession does not go far enough. Especially when 45% of the management fees are received by founder Victor Chu. 

• China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) priced its IPO at HK$14.50 per share to raise the gross proceeds of US$649 million. The shares will start trading on 23 October.
• The IPO was discussed in CR Beverage IPO: The Bull Case, CR Beverage IPO: The Bear Case, CR Beverage IPO: The Investment Case, CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights. 
• The market sentiment of the peers has remained unchanged since the IPO launch. CR Beverage is fairly valued at the IPO price.

• Laopu Gold (6181 HK) is expected to fail the fcap threshold at the December 2024 review due to low free float unless its price surges ~22% in the next week.
• The 6-month lock-up expiry will lift the fcap closely above the threshold significantly increasing the probability of inclusion at the March 2025 review.
• If the mcap qualifies for the small-cap segment, its inclusion is possible at the November 2024 review due to lower fcap requirements. 

• Hong Kong markets continue to outperform globally this year with short selling declining and mainland buying increasing.  These trends should accelerate going into next year.
• Sun Art Retail (6808 HK)resumed trading after announcing that the company is entertaining one or more potential acquisition plans for the company.  The company also announced strong 1H25 earnings.
• Shanghai Electric Group Company (2727 HK) announce a buyback plan for 10% of A and H shares outstanding.  The company also announced the acquisition of the China Fanuc robotics business.

• China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK) is sitting on a steep discount of 59% to its NAV. Its holding in Anhui Conch Cement (600585 CH) is already valued at HK$13.3/share.
• Its waste-to-energy business has a value of Rmb4.4bn by assuming 5x PER, but this business has a net book value of Rmb10bn. Pipeline capacity equals 21.7% of operational capacity.
• The new energy segment, including lithium battery recycling and the manufacture of positive and negative electrode materials, has solid prospects but is overlooked by the market.

• CanSino’s performance picked up in 24Q2. CDMO revenue is a surprise, which would become the second growth curve. Effective cost control and increased demand for meningococcal vaccines narrowed net losses. 
• The short-term highlight in business progress is PCV13i, whose approval process is faster-than-expected. This means CanSino’s revenue in 2025 may exceed expectations. Controlling shareholders and management have increased their holdings.
• CanSino’s revenue is expected to reach RMB750 million in 2024. If revenue this year reaches RMB800 million or above, it’s beyond expectations. Reasonable market value is at least RMB5-10 billion.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Adani Green Energy
• CIFI Holdings
• Medco Energi

• The December rebalance for the HSIII Index only involves capping to limit stocks to 12% of the index weight. There will not be any constituent changes.
• Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$2.9bn (US$378m).
• The largest outflows are expected to be from Meituan (3690 HK) and JD.com (9618 HK) with inflows spread across the other index constituents.

• Horizon Robotics (9660 HK), a provider of autonomous driving products and services, is seeking to raise up to US$696 million through a HKEx IPO.
• We previously discussed the IPO in Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) IPO: The Bull Case and Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) IPO: The Bear Case. 
• Our valuation analysis suggests that Horizon is unattractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.

• SF Holding proposes interim & special dividends for owners of A-shares
• Combined cash dividend totals 1.40 CNY per share, yielding about 3.3%
• Meeting October 29 to approve dividends, Q3 results, planned HK listing

• T.S. Lines (TSL HK) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• T.S. Lines (TSL) is a container shipping firm primarily operating in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region.
• In a previous note, we looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we talk about the recent updates from its filings.

• Despite a share price correction this month, JD.com (9618 HK) remains firmly amid an earnings upgrade cycle driven by improved profitability expectations.
• Following significant share price volatility over the past 2 months, JD.com’s near-term momentum indicators currently display bullish signals.
• JD.com still trades at more than one standard deviation below its 5-year historic average forward PE ratio, and near the lowest level it has ever been.

• HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener: Right Stocks Listed in the Wrong Market – Attractive Yield & Rapid Expansion Outside China – Sep 2024  helped us screen out great names.
• JNBY Design Ltd (3306 HK), an apparel retailer trading at 9.2x FY24 with a ~10% yield and a long-term track record of >34% 10 Yr-average ROCEs, is one such name. 
• Even with modest single-digit growth guidance, we see a growing yield and a great cash buffer (20% of the market cap), and dividends are sustainable. 

• Inventory lowest since February 2024
• Arbitrage widens for African and Indonesian rubber
• Expansion in imports & exports in August

• China’s Corn Under Extreme Weather Threat China’s corn production is currently under pressure due to extreme weather events in the country.
• Still, as it seems this might not be enough to even lift prices up a little bit. Local prices have ticked higher since the end of September, but they’re still close to four-year lows.
• Stockpiles of corn are plentiful, and demand is currently sluggish as the second-largest economy of the world battles its own economy demons at the moment.

• Shineway’s revenue experienced negative growth in 24H1 as expected, but net profit performance beat expectations (up 27.5% YoY). However, if excluding those one-time gains, net profit was down 14% YoY.
• In 24H2, Shineway’s performance is expected to pick up, and YoY revenue growth 2024 full-year would return to positive (e.g. 5-10% YoY). The only concern is TCM formula granule VBP.
• China Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877 HK)’s overall financial position is healthy.  However, even with large cash balance, the current dividend is not satisfactory, which has more room to improve.

• The “industry clearing”  of innovative drug companies is far longer and more brutal than imagined. But Chinese innovative drug ecosystem will ultimately usher in a better innovation pattern in the future.
• For every innovative pharmaceutical company with ambitious goals, globalization is a “must option”. With more and more Chinese biotech achieving success, the internationalization prospects will become better and better.
• China TCM’s privatization failure made us realize large SOEs we always believe in would violate their commitments to market/investors.Now, we need to get back to the fundamentals to minimize losses.

• With over 95% of the review period complete, 4 non-constituents are in inclusion zone and 6 constituents are in deletion zone.
• We estimate one-way turnover of 6.5% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 11.95bn (US$1.7bn). Index arb balances could increase the impact on the stocks.
• The potential adds have continued to outperform the potential deletes. There has been a big jump in the last few weeks as markets have rallied. Trim positions into strength.

• On October 18, JD denies there is a run on JD Finance.
• Many male users claimed they boycott JD for the invitation of Miss Yang, a talk show celebrity.
• We believe the event will negatively impact JD and benefit Alibaba.

• The whole industry has entered a medium to low-speed growth stage, and the industry’s future growth rate will remain single-digit growth. So, CR Beverage’s future performance decline is inevitable.
• Due to serious homogenization/competition of packaged drinking water market, there’s not much room for innovation/iteration. CR Beverage’s sales-driven model is hard to bring “new story” to break through the dilemma. 
• CR Beverage is clearly inferior to Nongfu Spring. Its valuation should be lower than Nongfu Spring. We think reasonable valuation of CR Beverage is about US$4 billion (or lower).

• Alibaba is selling Sun Art, a listed supermarket subsidiary, as Sun Art’s revenue is shrinking.
• Alibaba gained 6 million new retailers on its Taobao Tmall platform year to date.
• In September Tesla’s sales volume increased by 66% YoY and all major Chinese NEV grew strongly.

• With its share price returning to HK$0.68 level, the investment value of Singamas Container Holdings (716 HK) has re-emerged.
• Its competitor, CIMC, has just issued a positive profit alert, indicating an impressive 888.7% and 317.3% growth in reported and recurring earnings, which is positive for Singamas.
• An 11% growth in the global containership fleet in FY24 is also beneficial to the company. Its net cash of HK$1.65bn equals 1.02x its market capitalisation.

• China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)  (TCM) has been a frustrating deal, for a deal that shouldn’t be frustrating.
• As feared from its 16th October monthly update, the inability to secure investor group consents appears to have torpedoed the transaction. Will we eventually find out why this got stonewalled?
• This deal lapse changes the Hong Kong M&A landscape; if you can’t rely on SOE transactions to get up, what next?  The immediate question now is downside support on Monday.  

• Horizon Robotics (9660 HK), a provider of autonomous driving products and services, is seeking to raise up to US$696 million through a HKEx IPO.
• In Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
• The bear case rests on high related parties’ revenue, customer concentration risk, pricing pressure, uncertain path to profitability, high cash conversion cycle and FCF burn.

• Huge volumes traded on the mainland, Southbound volumes dropped, AH Premia contracted a little bit, but not much. Things are starting to stabilise.
• Average AH pairwise volatility is super high. Intracorrelation of spreads quite low. Lots of room to market-make wide spreads/high premia. High premia may continue to contract on speculation.
• Continuing different onshore and offshore opinion regarding the nature and vibe of Chinese stimulus will continue to lead to interesting dispersion. Identify the trend, then market make around it.

• This past week saw mainland investors trade HK$476bn of stock. Not as big as last “week” but still big. BABA buying has slowed, but net buying was still HK$24.4bn 
• The buying is starting to see a longer tail of net positive names, and properties this week saw big net buying, even before the Sunac placement which added more.
• High-Div SOEs are seeing outflows as beta sees inflows. I expect this to continue.

• A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
• ECM developments: Tokyo Metro (9023 JP), Rigaku Holdings (268A JP), Horizon Robotics (9660 HK), China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) and Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN) IPOs.
• Event-Driven developments: China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), Sun Art Retail (6808 HK), Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Dyna Mac Holdings (DMHL SP).

• Shockingly, the Sinopharm-led consortium’s offer for China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) has lapsed as the precondition long stop date has not been extended.
• This deal break caught many, including me, off guard. There are lessons to be learnt and questions to be asked. 
• Shareholders will have a bruising Monday. Our analysis suggests a deal break price of around HK$3.44, a 10% downside to the last close.

• TI Fluid Systems (TIFS LN) is trading at 10% gross spread to ABC (Apollo)’s Proposal, which the Board of TIFS would be minded to recommend if made firm.
• Although TIFS has made notable strategic progress recently, and maintained margins despite tough conditions over the last years, the short-term car picture has gotten progressively worse.
• 200p implies 4.6x EV/NTM EBITDA versus global auto suppliers trading on a median of 4.4x and represents a good-value exit. I believe the deal will complete. Long.

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

1. Vedanta Resources
2. Longfor Properties
3. Anton Oilfield
4. Adani Green Energy
5. Reliance Industries

and more…

• Horizon Robotics (9660 HK), a provider of autonomous driving products and services, is seeking to raise up to US$696 million through a HKEx IPO.    
• Horizon ranked fourth among all global ADAS and AD solution providers in China by solution installation volume in 2023 and 1H24, with a market share of 9.3% and 15.4%, respectively.
• The bull case rests on a large TAM, a blue-chip customer base, a robust backlog, a core business in good health, a high gross margin, and a strong balance sheet.

• Beijing Capital Grand (1329 HK) (BCG), a commercial property developer in China, is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. 
• Beijing Capital Land Ltd H (2868 HK) (BCL) holds a 65.72% stake, having secured majority control in Juda International, as BCG was then known, in November 2013. 
• BCG has been a forgettable stock since 4Q16. Expect a forthcoming Scheme from BCL, perhaps at ~HK$0.75/share.

• China Resources Beverage (2460 HK)  plans to raise  US$650m at the upper end of the indicative IPO price range at a market capitalisation and EV of HK$34bn and HK$27bn respectively.
• Though the company has a strong business model and fundamentals, the packaged drinking water market is intensely competitive creating a price war and dragging down growth rates.
• CR Beverage is less diversified and has inferior margins compared to Nongfu Spring (9633 HK) , hence priced at a deep discount to its peer, making the IPO pricing attractive.

• Horizon Robotics, a Beijing-based fast-growing provider of integrated ADAS and AD solutions for passenger vehicles, plans to raise ~$700M at the high end of the range at HK$3.99/share.
• The IPO is expected to be between HK$3.73 and HK$3.99. However, the offer price may be, but is not expected to be, lower than the lower end of the range.
• I believe that at the high end of the range, the company’s valuation is full, and I would await a share pull-back before becoming more positive on the stock.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Vedanta Resources

• Beijing Capital Grand (1329 HK) entered a trading halt based on the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. 
• It is likely that Beijing Capital Land Ltd H (2868 HK), the largest shareholder, is launching an offer primarily to acquire the stake from Sino-Ocean Group (3377 HK) receivers. 
• As this is a forced sale, an offer of around HK$0.70-0.75, a 20%- 30% premium to the last close, would be sufficient to gain an irrevocable from the receivers. 

• China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)’s monthly update notes that the consortium has secured SAMR approval and made progress in obtaining the other regulatory approvals. 
• As expected, the precondition will not be satisfied before the 18 October long stop date. Unexpectedly, whether the consortium members will consent to the extension remains uncertain.
• The extension will be forthcoming as the delay is procedural, there is a reputational risk from a deal break, the time investment is significant, and the warning was legally required.

• Back in March, the CSRC said it aimed to “form two to three investment banks and institutions with international competitiveness and market leadership by 2035″.
• Last week’s announced merger between China’s leading state-backed brokerages, Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) and Haitong (6837 HK), is a move in that direction. Expect more scrip mergers to follow. 
• There have also been some media reports that the GJS/Haitong terms disadvantage holders of other Hong Kong broker stocks if potentially acquired in a merger. It’s not quite that simple. 

For our next Corporate Webinar, we are glad to welcome UMP Healthcare’s Chief Financial Officer and Company Secretary, Patrick Cheung. 

In the upcoming webinar, Patrick will share a short company presentation after which, he will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Sameer Taneja. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 23 October 2024, 15:00 SGT/HKT.

About UMP Healthcare

• China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) (TCM) will fall today. Perhaps a lot.
• With two days left on the clock to secure the pre-conditions (18th October), the Offeror said “it remains uncertain” whether it can secure an extension from the investor group.
• Such wording could be viewed as boilerplate SFC legalise. I would argue the use of “uncertain” is superfluous, unhelpful, and for investors, downright worrying. 

• BYD’s deliveries growth accelerated to 36% YoY in Aug and 46% YoY Sep.
• The whole domestic NEV (New Energy vehicle) market has been accelerating for for the entire third quarter.
• We believe the EU and the US market are not concerns, as both domestic and other emerging markets are promising.

• Since Tasly’s performance growth has long stagnated and Yan Kaijing has no better way to turn the situation around, selling Tasly to SOE and cashing out becomes a good choice.
• Upon completion of all approvals (e.g. the SASAC, SAMR, shareholders’ meeting of CR Sanjiu, etc.), the deal aims to be completed in 25Q1. We think the deal will get up.
• Tasly’s share price should be at least higher than RMB14.85/share based on the cash transfer price. Its P/E would reach 30 in the future after the integration with CR Sanjiu.

• BenQ BM Holding Cayman Corp. (BBHC HK) is looking to raise at least $US100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
• It is a leading private for-profit general hospital group in mainland China, operating two general hospitals – Nanjing BenQ Hospital and Suzhou BenQ Hospital.
• In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

• JD Industrial Technology is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming HK IPO.
• JDI is a leading industrial supply chain technology and service provider in China in terms of GMV in each year during the Track Record Period, according to CIC.
• We have looked at the company background and provided our initial thoughts on valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the refiling updates.

• Horizon Robotics is looking to raise up to US$696m in its Hong Kong IPO. 
• Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Adani Green Energy
• Anton Oilfield

• The ChiNext Index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
• The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
• In this insight, we have presented our updated rankings for Potential ADDs and DELs for the upcoming index rebal event in December 2024.

• Bossini International Holdings (592 HK), a casual apparel play, is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. As is Viva Goods (933 HK), Bossini’s largest shareholder, with 62.91%.
• Former Olympic gymnast Li Ning holds 68.96% of Viva Goods. Viva Goods also holds a 10.37% stake in Li Ning (2331 HK).
• The double suspension is probably a pre-cursor to Viva Goods tabling a delisting Offer for Bossini. 

• China Resources Beverage (CRB HK)  is looking to raise up to US$650m in its Hong Kong IPO. 
• China Resources Beverage manufactures and sells packaged drinking water and RTD soft beverages in China.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.

• CSI Medical Service represents the top 50 largest and most-liquid stocks involved in medical devices, medical care, medical informatization and other medical theme from the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing Exchanges.
• In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2024.
• We expect up to five ADDs and five DELs for the CSI Medical Service index during this index rebal event based on the latest available data.

• China Resources Beverage (CRB HK), China’s largest purified drinking water company, has launched its HKEx IPO to raise up to US$650 million.
• We previously discussed the IPO in CR Beverage IPO: The Bull Case, CR Beverage IPO: The Bear Case and CR Beverage IPO: The Investment Case.
• Our valuation analysis suggests that CR Beverage is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

• CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500.
• In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2024.
• We currently expect 16 ADDs/DELs for CSI 300 and 50 ADDs/DELs for CSI 500. Some of these names are different from what we had in our September 2024 insight.

• Horizon Robotics (1395186D CH) is offering 1.355bn shares in its IPO at a price range of HK$3.73-3.99/share. With the overallotment option, the IPO could raise up to HK$6.2bn (US$801m).
• Cornerstone investors will take up a third of the offer. Those shares will be locked up for 6 months and will significantly reduce the free float of the stock.
• Index inclusions will commence with the HSCI in March 2025 – however, as a stock with Weighted Voting Rights, inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect will only take place in May.

• With 95% of the review period now complete, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) for the CSI Smallcap 500 Index at the close on 13 December.
• We estimate a one-way turnover of 11% at the rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY17.56bn (US$2.48bn). The Information Technology and HealthCare sectors gain at the expense of Industrials.
• After drifting lower over the last couple of months, the forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last couple of weeks. There should be more to go here.

• Fosun has a clear plan for Henlius’ future development. This seems to hint at “an internal consensus” – Fosun seems to have persuaded major shareholders to vote for the privatization.
• The privatization of Henlius will make positive contributions to Fosun Pharma’s revenue/profit, but this impact is limited.  What Fosun really wants is to obtain huge investment income from another spin-off/re-listed.
• For investors who are interested in the Share Alternative, they’re advised to figure out whether the Rollover Entities/Securities is relevant to the new entity.If not, the Share Alternative is worthless.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• China Vanke
• Reliance Industries
• West China Cement

• The review period ends on 31 October, the changes should be announced on 29 November and will be effective after the close of trading on 13 December.
• We forecast 4 potential changes for the index in December where there could be buying of 0.5-3x ADV in the adds and selling of between 0.5-1.3x ADV in the deletes.
• The forecast adds have drifted lower versus the forecast deletes following the rally in the markets and the large ETF creations. That could reverse from now till review period end.

• China Resources Beverage (CRB HK) is offering 347.8m shares in its IPO at a price range of HK$13.5-14.5/share. With the overallotment option, the IPO could raise up to HK$5.8bn (US$474m).
• Cornerstone investors will take up nearly half the offer. Those shares will be locked up for 6 months and will significantly reduce the free float of the stock.
• Index inclusions will commence with the HSCI in March 2025 – that will also result in Stock Connect inclusion. The next index inclusion will take place in June.

• Tencent repurchased 250 million shares and the market has not paid any attention to its significant margin improvements.
• Lalatech updated its IPO file for 1H24, in which both GTV  and revenue were up by 18% YoY.
• Seres expects its revenue will grow by 518% YoY to 559% YoY for 3Q24.

• SOUTHBOUND was a net buyer the last five trading days (from before GW to 14 Oct). HUGE gross flows. Decent net flows. Very big in few names (BABA included).
• The Guotai Junnan/Haitong merger pushed H-share brokers hard, but SB wasn’t buying. They bought Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK), Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK), Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK). 
• Things may settle down a little bit as the fiscal policy announcements are out of the way, but I expect the trend is still your friend (until it bends). 

• Anta top line outperformed competitors, both overseas and domestic brands, in China.
• We believe all margins will be stable and EPS will rise by 41% in 2024.
• However, we believe Anta is overvalued at the current price.

• A big “week” of 5 trading days from 30 Sep to 14 Oct, inclusive. Average AH premia dropped a lot. Liquid AH premia dropped less. Brokers are big winners.
• Average AH volatility is super high. Intracorrelation of spreads quite low. Lots of room to market-make wide spreads/high premia. High premia may continue to contract on speculation.
• Sharply differing onshore and offshore opinion regarding the nature and vibe of Chinese stimulus will lead to interesting dispersion. Identify the trend, then market make around it.

• Recent significant clinker price hikes in Yangtze river region boost our confidence that 4Q will likely see the company’s earnings double Y/Y, ending 14 consecutive quarters of decline since 2Q21.
• Beijing’s bazooka stimulus package to lift the property market and revive economy also improve industry outlook in 2025.
• Consensus has been slow to adjust for the changes in industry dynamics. Our 2024 earnings is now 15% above consensus. We expect upward earnings revision will support P/B expansion.

• CIMC Enric Holdings (3899 HK) has underperformed benchmark Indices YTD, and its business segments are undervalued based on their earnings performance. 
• The clean energy segment is only valued at HK$3.4bn, or 24% of the stock’s total. However, it is the largest earnings generator in 1H24, contributing 60% of 1H24 profit.
• CLPT’s earnings contribution is 22% more than CIMC Safeway’s, but it is only valued at 27% of the latter, equivalent to an undemanding 9.8x annualised PER.

• SSE 50 and SSE 180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
• In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the December 2024 index rebal event.
• While our SSE 50 expected ADDs/DELs list remains unchanged, there have been multiple changes to our SSE 180 expected ADDs/DELs list.

• Last week J&T Global Express reported Q324 express parcel volume by segment
• Volume growth in all segments slowed dramatically compared to Q224
• Without needed context, we believe the numbers undermine J&T growth story