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Equity Bottom-Up

Equity Bottom-Up: DBS, Bukalapak, Lawson Inc, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Tesla Motors, Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation-A, PTT E&P and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • DBS Group Holdings – Lots of Lipstick
  • Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) – Enhancing Financial Offerings
  • Lawson: Fuelled up and Ready To Go
  • Takeda: Excessive Reaction to Recent Setback in Trials; Drop in Share Price Offer Attractive Entry
  • 1H22 Obex Research Short Portfolio
  • Bloomage Biotechnology (688363.CH) Vs Imeik Technology (300896.CH) – The Logic and the Outlook
  • PTTEP: Solid Earnings Performance Hit by Impairment Loss

DBS Group Holdings – Lots of Lipstick

By Thomas J. Monaco

  • Move Along, No Problems Here: DBS Group Holdings (DBS.SG) [DBS] participated in a competitor conference on January 10, 2022, suggesting that not an ounce of risk is on balance sheet; 
  • Digital Franchise: Management also focused on digital initiatives, including: DBS Digital Exchange; Digital Custody; and the Partior platform; and
  • Deal Risk Remains High: There was no discussion by management of its headlong buying spree of some fairly spicy transactions. And they are not done.

Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) – Enhancing Financial Offerings

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) has announced that it will participate in the upcoming rights issue of new digital bank Allo Bank, its first direct investment in a financial services company.
  • This move will help to enhance the company’s financial services offering to its 10.4m plus Mitras and sellers in the platform helping to increase stickiness and improve take-rates.
  • We expect positive momentum going forward as some of its new focus areas pick up the pace and valuations look attractive from an EV/gross sales perspective given its growth prospects. 

Lawson: Fuelled up and Ready To Go

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Lawson Inc (2651 JP) released rather disappointing 3QFY22 results last week with revenue and OP falling short of consensus by 4.5% and 22.2% respectively.
  • Lower than expected profitability is driven by Lawson’s heavy upfront investments on future growth.
  • With consensus unjustly penalising Lawson for growth investments, we think that there’s around ¥10.0bn upside to FY+2 consensus OP of Lawson.

Takeda: Excessive Reaction to Recent Setback in Trials; Drop in Share Price Offer Attractive Entry

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Takeda is currently trading at JPY3,175 per share, slightly above its all-time low of JPY3,105 per share. Shares are currently at a 27% discount to its peak in March 2021.
  • The company has been divesting its non-core assets and reorganising its business around five core areas: GI, Rare Diseases, Plasma-Derived Therapies, Oncology, Neurosciences and Others.
  • Takeda’s share price started plunging after the suspension of a phase 2 study of TAK-994 in October 2021 following the emergence of a safety signal.

1H22 Obex Research Short Portfolio

By Aaron Gabin

  • Tesla is a short. We know. You can’t short it. But it is a short.
  • We continue to look for businesses that overearned and pulled in growth during the pandemic…some more recently identified examples: CHWY, ROKU
  • Spotify remains one of our top short ideas, bad business model, and now increasing competition from alternative listening services. 

Bloomage Biotechnology (688363.CH) Vs Imeik Technology (300896.CH) – The Logic and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • There’re many uncertainties about Imeik’s development strategy, resilience in front of risks and corresponding business performance, which could make it difficult for the market to calmly view the next fluctuation.
  • Despite lower profit margin, Bloomage is more R&D oriented and characterized by integration of industrial chain,enabling it to establish wider moat and move forward more stably in the long term.
  • Our view is that Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation-A (688363 CH) is expected to have more potential and imagination space than Imeik Technology Development (300896 CH) in the future.

PTTEP: Solid Earnings Performance Hit by Impairment Loss

By Research Group at Country Group Securities

  • We expect PTTEP to post a solid 4Q21 net profit of Bt9.7bn (+283% YoY, +2% QoQ).
  • Excluding the impairment loss of US$200m (Mozambique, Yetagun projects), and US$100m gain from reversal of decommissioning expense of Bongkot project, the recurring profit is expected to be Bt13.2bn (+162% YoY)
  • The YoY surge will be from 10% and 27% growth in sales volume and  average product selling price (ASP) respectively.

Related tickers: DBS (DBSM.SI), Lawson Inc (2651.T), Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502.T), Tesla Motors (TSLA.OQ), PTT E&P (PTTEP.BK)

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Equity Bottom-Up: Alibaba Group, Horiba Ltd, Shanghai Junshi Bioscience, Square Enix Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • 1H22 Obex Research Long Portfolio
  • Horiba (6856 JP): New Growth Opportunity in Hydrogen Energy
  • Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877.HK/688180.CH) – Behind the “break Up” with AstraZeneca
  • Square Enix – WAGMI

1H22 Obex Research Long Portfolio

By Aaron Gabin

  • With half of Nasdaq stocks down 50% from the top, is further meltdown ahead?  Valuation compression is already larger than recent big growth selloffs.  
  • We like a balance of highest quality high growth (CRWD, SNOW, RBLX) and attractive relative valuations (PANW, NOW, BABA)
  • Amazon is poised for a big 2022 as 1 day Prime shipping reaccelerates growth, and price increases hike profits.

Horiba (6856 JP): New Growth Opportunity in Hydrogen Energy

By Scott Foster

  • Measurement and analysis to qualify hydrogen fuel cells, vehicle engines and fueling stations, electrolysis and other hydrogen production processes should be a new growth driver for Horiba.
  • Semiconductor equipment demand losing momentum, but should hold up in 2022. Weak demand for auto emission measurement systems is a key risk.
  • Reasonably valued at 15x EPS guidance for FY Dec-21 and 1.45x book value, with a dividend yield of 2.0%.

Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877.HK/688180.CH) – Behind the “break Up” with AstraZeneca

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Co. Ltd. (1877 HK) announced that it has terminated its PD-1 commercialization partnership with AstraZeneca. Lower-than-expected sales performance is seen as the key reason.
  • Junshi’s commercialization team is the weakest among the domestic Top Four.As the FDA’s attitude may have changed, the logic of exporting innovative domestic drugs to foreign markets could be shaken.
  • Given the poor financing environment,it’s challenging for Junshi to afford large investment in R&D and licensing deals by just relying on cash in hand and cashflow generating from commercialized products.

Square Enix – WAGMI

By Mark Chadwick

  • Blockchain games are gaining popularity and traction with new players. There are now over 1.4m people playing blockchain games daily  
  • The economics of blockchain gaming and NFT is driving a flood of new investment into the space, with $4b committed by VCs in 2021. This year will be significantly higher  
  • Square Enix understands that blockchain games are here to stay despite opposition from “legacy fans.” We expect further announcements on blockchain gaming to drive the stock

Related tickers: Alibaba Group (BABA.N), Horiba Ltd (6856.T), Square Enix Holdings (9684.T)

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Equity Bottom-Up: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Telix Pharmaceuticals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • MHI (7011 JP): Opportunity or Value Trap?
  • Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU): Stepping Ahead with First Product Approved in the U.S.

MHI (7011 JP): Opportunity or Value Trap?

By Scott Foster

  • MHI is selling at 9.9x EPS guidance and 0.7x book value, with a dividend yield of 3.0%. We see potential upside of at least 25% beyond the New Years bounce.
  • The shares have underperformed for several years due to serious managerial errors. But the mess is being cleaned up and new growth opportunities have emerged.
  • Risks include limited margins in the energy and aerospace & defense sectors and the possibility of renewed investment in the failed regional jet aircraft project.

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU): Stepping Ahead with First Product Approved in the U.S.

By Tina Banerjee

  • Last month, Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU) received FDA approval for its first cancer imaging product, Illuccix. Commercial launch of Illuccix will be the major milestone for the company in 2022.
  • EU approval for Illucix is expected in March. Illuccix has multi-billion-dollar global market opportunity, driven by rising incidence of prostate cancer, increasing clinical adoption, and geography expansion.
  • The company has a rich pipeline targeting seven indications, having high unmet medical needs. Telix is expected to file for kidney cancer imaging product, TLX250-CDx in early 2022.

Related tickers: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011.T), Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX.AX)

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Equity Bottom-Up: PC Partner, Tencent, Jinchuan Group International Resources, Toshiba Corp, Mapletree Commercial Trust, Descente Ltd, Osstem Implant and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Preview PC Partner FY21 Earnings: Record Profit + Record Dividend + Strong Outlook for FY22
  • Tencent: Is More Fintech Restructuring On Its Way?
  • Jinchuan International (2362 HK): Thoughts On A Rumoured Offer
  • Toshiba – The 3D Dilemma
  • MCT and MNACT Merger – Against Expectations, Could MCT Be a Net Beneficiary?
  • Descente: The Next Goldwin?
  • Osstem Implant – Where to Next?

Preview PC Partner FY21 Earnings: Record Profit + Record Dividend + Strong Outlook for FY22

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • PC Partner (1263 HK) issued a positive profit alert 15/12/2021.
  • Company will report FY21 results in 60 days which will be the best ever. 1H22 is on track to show growth YoY. 
  • Forecast exceptional dividend to celebrate 25-yr since founding and 10-yr since IPO. 

Tencent: Is More Fintech Restructuring On Its Way?

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • In December, Tencent announced that its board of directors has resolved to declare a special dividend by way of a distribution of its Class A ordinary shares of JD.com. 
  • This seems to be in line with regulators’ aim of bringing down walled gardens; however, we think these steps are aimed more towards restructuring Tencent’s fintech business.
  • Tencent’s fintech arm has been benefitting from its partnerships with JD.com and Pinduoduo which has helped face competition from closest rival AliPay.

Jinchuan International (2362 HK): Thoughts On A Rumoured Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Shares have declined ~9% since copper/cobalt miner Jinchuan Group International Resources (2362 HK) said it was unaware Jinchuan Group, its largest shareholder, was proposing a privatisation plan.
  • As the world moves towards alternative energy sources, copper will remain in high demand. Jinchuan is also China’s third-largest cobalt refiner, whose output is used in lithium-ion batteries.
  • Jinchuan is not expensive. And taking the company private is not a significant outlay for Jinchuan Group. Especially ahead of the copper/cobalt Musonoi project coming online next year.

Toshiba – The 3D Dilemma

By Mio Kato

  • After a brief respite in their never-ending drama over the holiday period Toshiba is again in the news as 3D reiterates their demands for a “review of all options”. 
  • We have lost count of the number of reviews which haven’t resulted in a PE sale.
  • The question is exactly why 3D appears to be so aggressive even relative to other less than bashful activists.

MCT and MNACT Merger – Against Expectations, Could MCT Be a Net Beneficiary?

By Jason Yap, CFA

  • On 31 December 2021, MCT and MNACT announced a SGD4.2 billion merger transaction 
  • The prevailing sentiment is that MNACT unitholders get a better deal than MCT unitholders, as reflected in the share price and Moody’s review of MCT’s issuer rating for downgrade
  • In this Insight, we play the the devil’s advocate and highlight how this merger results in a net benefit to MCT’s unitholders

Descente: The Next Goldwin?

By Michael Causton

  • Descente Ltd (8114 JP)  is about the same size as Goldwin but has traditionally depended for half of its sales on South Korea.
  • Itochu Corp (8001 JP) acquired control in a fraught battle with management, in order to reduce this dependence. As a result, Descente managed a return to the black in 1H202.
  • It has ambitious plans to create a set of brands strong both at home and abroad by copying much of Goldwin’s playbook, particularly its investment in retail and online.

Osstem Implant – Where to Next?

By Ken S. Kim

  • The family of the accused has said that the embezzlement was not an act of one man but due to orders taken from superiors.
  • The recovery shoudn’t be an issue as the accused had bought in gold in Dec and Dongjin Chem has not had a substantial drop for the period in question.  
  • When did this start? According to the Capital Market Act, if an investor incurs loss due to false statements/omissions in the business/quarterly report, the company is responsible for damages.  

Related tickers: PC Partner (1263.HK), Tencent (0700.HK), Jinchuan Group International Resources (2362.HK), Toshiba Corp (6502.T), Mapletree Commercial Trust (MACT.SI), Descente Ltd (8114.T), Osstem Implant (048260.KQ)

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Equity Bottom-Up: Monex Group Inc, Alibaba Group, Evergrande, Fast Retailing, Shinpoong Pharmaceutical, Siam Cement, Precious Shipping, Siam Commercial Bank Pub Co, Hawkins Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Monex – Bitcoin Breakdown Means This Needs a Hedge
  • Livestreaming E-Commerce – How the Sector Might Evolve After Viya Fine
  • China Evergrande Group – Razing Cain
  • Fast Retailing: An Earnings Miss Could Be Around the Corner
  • Shinpoong Pharmaceutical (019170 KS): Three Concerns Are Clouding the Upside Potential
  • SCC: CBM & Packaging Are White Knights to Drive 2022 Earnings
  • PSL: Healthy Freight Rate Is Expected to Be Remained in 2022 and 2023
  • SCB: Focusing on Quality of Growth
  • HWKN: Outlook of a Beat

Monex – Bitcoin Breakdown Means This Needs a Hedge

By Mio Kato

  • We said previously that we would remain positive on Monex until there were signs of a crypto currency breakdown. 
  • That now appears to be happening and we are thus leery of the pure long trade here. 
  • However, earnings trends are reasonable and we still like the name so we would examine hedging options.

Livestreaming E-Commerce – How the Sector Might Evolve After Viya Fine

By Jason Yap, CFA

  • Viya, China’s livestreaming queen, was fined RMB1.34 billion (USD210 billion) for tax evasion and related offences in 2019 and 2020 and her internet presence erased 
  • This exposes existing risks in the livestreaming sector including over-dependence on top KOLs, additional layer of costs and sector-specific regulatory crackdown
  • In this Insight, we examine the cost structure of livestreaming e-commerce and discuss the Viya incident’s implications on the livestreaming e-commerce sector

China Evergrande Group – Razing Cain

By Thomas J. Monaco

  • Bad To Worse:Under mainland China’s real estate development law, the government has the right to repossess idle land sold to any developer without compensation;
  • Demolition Man: Danzhou City is now in on the act, forcing China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) [Evergrande] to demolish 39 buildings for various violations; and
  • Banks To Eat This As Well: Without any compensation to Evergrande, mainland Chinese banks no doubt will finally be writing down their exposure on Evergrande’s now non-existent buildings.

Fast Retailing: An Earnings Miss Could Be Around the Corner

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • It is going to be challenging for Fast Retailing (9983 JP) to meet the 1QFY22 consensus revenue and OP, when it releases the first quarter results next week.
  • Comps were quite strong in the last year, driven by pent-up demand and consensus is expecting 1QFY22 to be marginally higher than the same period of the previous year.
  • We think there could be a substantial miss in 1QFY22, driven by lower than expected performance in Uniqlo’s Japan and Chinese businesses.

Shinpoong Pharmaceutical (019170 KS): Three Concerns Are Clouding the Upside Potential

By Tina Banerjee

  • Shinpoong Pharmaceutical (019170 KS) management is accused of raising KRW 25 billion in slush funds. If found guilty, the shares may be suspended to trade in the stock exchange.
  • The company’s oral COVID-19 drug is in phase 3 trial. However, late entry and uncertainty over the efficacy of multiple variants of the COVID are dampening sentiment.
  • Shinpoong Pharmaceutical is investing heavily in R&D to build-up a rich pipeline, which will pressurize profit in near-term.

SCC: CBM & Packaging Are White Knights to Drive 2022 Earnings

By Research Group at Country Group Securities

  • We expect 4Q21 earnings to recover from 3Q bottom quarter, driven by higher petrochemical spreads, gradual rise in CBM demand volume, and consolidation in packaging business.   
  • Expect 4Q21 revenue to grow both YoY and QoQ, through higher chemical prices, and cement demand from resumption of construction projects.
  • Maintain positive on 2022 outlook, following reopening economic activities should see demand recovery for both CBM and packaging units. Likewise, chemical spreads are cushion by higher prices, despite feedstock hike. 

PSL: Healthy Freight Rate Is Expected to Be Remained in 2022 and 2023

By Research Group at Country Group Securities

  • We anticipate TCE rate for small-medium ships (Handysize and Supramax) to stay at high profitable level throughout 2022-23E supported by an absence of fleet supply glut issue given
  • We expect China’s imports of iron ore and agriculture products to remain muted at least until 1H22,which is likely to pressured TCE rate for dry bulk carriers to come down
  • We expect PSL to report 4Q21 net profit at Bt1,431m (-5%QoQ, +5120%YoY), a slight drop from all-time high level in 3Q21.

SCB: Focusing on Quality of Growth

By Research Group at Country Group Securities

  • We expect SCB’s net profit to strongly rise 50% YoY to Bt7.4bn in 4Q21, underpinned by lower provisions and higher net fee income. But the profit is likely 
  • Thai economy is expected to be stronger in 2022 due to higher consumptions and continued rise in exports.An improvement in economic activities would boost new loan demands and ease NPLs 
  • SCB will concentrate on supporting existing customers rather than acquiring new ones in 2022. It will expand non-interest income from wealth management, insurance, and investment rather than aggressively provide loans.

HWKN: Outlook of a Beat

By Hamed Khorsand

  • HWKN used the backdrop of the holidays to add to its water treatment business, but the catalyst for fiscal third quarter (December) results could be the health and nutrition segment
  • The health and nutrition segment experienced an increase in sales in FYQ2 due to the late summer wave of COVID-19. Current COVID-19 wave could result in FYQ3 sales also increasing
  • HWKN was already benefiting from growth in the water treatment business and higher chemical prices

Related tickers: Monex Group Inc (8698.T), Alibaba Group (BABA.N), Evergrande (3333.HK), Fast Retailing (9983.T), Shinpoong Pharmaceutical (019170.KS), Siam Cement (SCC.BK), Precious Shipping (PSL.BK), Siam Commercial Bank Pub Co (SCB.BK), Hawkins Inc (HWKN.O)

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Equity Bottom-Up: Tencent, Tesla Motors, Fast Retailing, Sony Corp, Shenzhen International, Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited, JMT Network Services, Mega Lifesciences, Renewable Energy Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Tencent Holdings – From Sea To Shining Sea
  • Record Tesla Q4 Deliveries Boost Q4 Revenue & Profit Estimates
  • Japan’s Boycott of Winter Olympics Could Be the Tipping Point
  • Sony – PSVR2 On the Horizon
  • Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Deep Dissection Indicates Truly Undervalued
  • Ping An Health (Part 1): A Deep Dive into Online Medical Services Business
  • JMT Network Services – Near Infinite Debt Collection Supply?
  • MEGA: Expect Growth Rate to Slow Down in 2022
  • REGI: Downstream Acquisition Is Catalyst

Tencent Holdings – From Sea To Shining Sea

By Thomas J. Monaco

  • Sea Sale: Tencent sold 14.5 mn shares in Sea, raising approximately USD 3 bn in cash – reducing Tencent’s position in Sea from 21.3% to 18.7%;   
  • Not A Surprise: Given mainland China’s crackdown on the country’s largest internet companies, Tencent’s disposal of Sea shares is not a surprise; and  
  • Other Stake Sales To Follow: Further divestitures of major stakes are likely if Tencent wishes to remain on the right side of mainland China’s Communist Party.    

Record Tesla Q4 Deliveries Boost Q4 Revenue & Profit Estimates

By Vicki Bryan

  • Tesla’s Q4 deliveries trounced market estimates thanks to a strong yearend push.
  • The outlook for revenue and profit just got higher. A lot higher.
  • Also true, Tesla’s easy comps may be coming to an end.

Japan’s Boycott of Winter Olympics Could Be the Tipping Point

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Considering the geopolitical relationship over the last 100 years, it doesn’t take much for Chinese people to start developing an anti-Japan sentiment.
  • The relationship between the two countries was already reaching nervy levels, before Tokyo’s decision to snub the 2022 Winter Olympics.
  • We think the Japanese government’s decision to not send a government delegation to the Winter Olympics could be all that is needed to spark an anti-Japan sentiment among Chinese consumers.

Sony – PSVR2 On the Horizon

By Mio Kato

  • Sony announced details for the PlayStation VR2 today confirming many rumoured specifications. 
  • In addition, it announced that a title from its key Horizon franchise would be coming to VR. 
  • This points to a commitment from Sony to support AAA VR titles and should allow it to once again dominate VR.

Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Deep Dissection Indicates Truly Undervalued

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • By deconsolidating Shenzhen Expressway (548 HK) (SZX) from Shenzhen International (152 HK) (SZI), SZI’s net book value reached HK$16.4bn. Its current market cap of HK$18.9bn implies SZX is almost free. 
  • SZI’s high gearing is primarily due to SZX. Excluding SZX, SZI’s gearing is just 32.3%. As Shenzhen’s flagship SOE, there is consistent monitoring and huge support from the local government.   
  • SZI’s 0.47x P/B is more than 2SD below historical average; but it has proven capability to realise value of underlying assets. Excluding SZX, SZI is on even cheaper 0.32x P/B. 

Ping An Health (Part 1): A Deep Dive into Online Medical Services Business

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company (SEHK:1833) operates an Internet healthcare platform in China (Ping An Good Doctor), which delivers on-demand healthcare. Its mobile platform was launched in April 2015.     
  • It is one of the leading online healthcare providers in China and has reported strong growth in revenues and gross profit since inception.
  • The company has been positively impacted by the spread of COVID-19 with more people switching to online healthcare rather than visiting hospitals.

JMT Network Services – Near Infinite Debt Collection Supply?

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Can benefit from years of strong growth in banks’ debt collection
  • Returns remain exceptional at over 7% during last twelve months
  • Book value growth is astonishing from THB121m to THB5,755m in past 10 years

MEGA: Expect Growth Rate to Slow Down in 2022

By Research Group at Country Group Securities

  • We maintain BUY rating and roll over target price to Bt56 (+8% from previous TP) based on 25xPE’22E, a 15% discount from Thai health care peers.
  • We expect MEGA revenue growth rate to slow down to 4%YoY in 2022 caused by relieved customers concern over COVID-19 pandemic and high base effect.
  • Looking forward to 2023,  We foresee MEGA revenue to continues to grow at moderate level at 9%CAGR in 2023-2025E, close to the global dietary supplements market growth at 8.6%CAGR(2021-2028) 

REGI: Downstream Acquisition Is Catalyst

By Hamed Khorsand

  • REGI is increasing its downstream business through the acquisition of Amber Resources. The commercial distributor gives REGI a foothold within one of REGI’s most important renewable diesel markets, California
  • REGI’s management has been trying to broaden the Company’s downstream reach to capture more of the margin in selling renewable and biomass-based diesel.
  • The more than 60 million gallons of diesel sold per year by Amber Resources would fuel a margin expansion opportunity

Related tickers: Tencent (0700.HK), Tesla Motors (TSLA.OQ), Fast Retailing (9983.T), Sony Corp (6758.T), Shenzhen International (0152.HK), Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833.HK), JMT Network Services (JMT.BK), Mega Lifesciences (MEGA.BK), Renewable Energy Group (REGI.O)

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Equity Bottom-Up: Shiseido Company, LG Chem Ltd, Porton Pharma Solutions, Xperi and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Crackdown on Live-Streaming E-Commerce Could Derail The Recovery of Japanese Cosmetics
  • NAV Analysis of LG Chem Suggests Excessive Selling Overdone
  • Porton Pharma Solutions (300363.CH) – Not Easy to Get into the First Tier
  • XPER: Multiple Shots on Goal, Upgrading to Top Pick
  • XPER: Multiple Shots on Goal, Upgrading to Top Pick

Crackdown on Live-Streaming E-Commerce Could Derail The Recovery of Japanese Cosmetics

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • With life getting back to the usual ways following changes due to COVID-19, the Japanese cosmetics sector was expected to experience an uplift in earnings, mainly through inbound demand.
  • However, the extension of China’s common prosperity crackdowns to the live-streaming e-commerce business, could more than offset a possible recovery in inbound demand.
  • Thus, we fear that there is additional downside risk to Japanese cosmetics multiples in the short term.

NAV Analysis of LG Chem Suggests Excessive Selling Overdone

By Douglas Kim

  • Why has LG Chem’s share price fallen so much in the past two months and why is this falling trend likely to be near its end? 
  • With the IPO bookbuilding of LG Energy Solution only a week away, many investors are placing a greater positive emphasis on the potential value of LG Energy Solution.
  • Our base case NAV analysis of LG Chem is 744,246 won, which is 20.4% higher than the current price. We assume 424,093 won for LG Energy Solution target price. 

Porton Pharma Solutions (300363.CH) – Not Easy to Get into the First Tier

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Porton made a successful turnaround and the CGT business layout is also in the right direction. The US$217 million new order would improve the certainties of its 2022 performance.
  • The concerns on potential deterioration of international relations and the broken logic in CXO sector also apply to Porton Pharma Solutions (300363 CH), which should be aware of by investors.
  • So, there is a long way to go for Porton to truly get into the first tier. It may not be a good buying point currently considering the high valuation.

XPER: Multiple Shots on Goal, Upgrading to Top Pick

By Hamed Khorsand

  • XPER starts 2022 with a baseline free cash flow that is receiving little investor attention after the Company spent 2021 investing in its product offering
  • XPER has multiple shots to achieve greater free cash flow in 2022. From AutoStage and AutoSense to hybrid bonding and content streaming intellectual property
  • The steps XPER took in 2021 did not achieve triumphant revenue and free cash flow events to garner investor attention in the same year, but sets up 2022 for growth

XPER: Multiple Shots on Goal, Upgrading to Top Pick

By Hamed Khorsand

  • XPER starts 2022 with a baseline free cash flow that is receiving little investor attention after the Company spent 2021 investing in its product offering
  • XPER has multiple shots to achieve greater free cash flow in 2022. From AutoStage and AutoSense to hybrid bonding and content streaming intellectual property
  • The steps XPER took in 2021 did not achieve triumphant revenue and free cash flow events to garner investor attention in the same year, but sets up 2022 for growth

Related tickers: Shiseido Company (4911.T), LG Chem Ltd (051910.KS), Porton Pharma Solutions (300363.SZ), Xperi (TSRA.O), Xperi (TSRA.O)

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Equity Bottom-Up: Shanghai Microport Endovascular MedTech and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Shanghai Microport Endovascular MedTech (688016.CH) – Not as Attractive as Lifetech

Shanghai Microport Endovascular MedTech (688016.CH) – Not as Attractive as Lifetech

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Although Endovastec has leading position in aortic products, the growth space of this field in China is relatively limited and is not enough to support the long-term development of Endovastec.
  • The lack of revolutionary blockbuster product/candidate with global pricing power as well as the current weak international business layout are also the concerns.
  • Our view is that Shanghai Microport Endovascular MedTech (688016 CH) (Endovastec) is a good company, but it is not as attractive as Lifetech Scientific (1302 HK) at the current stage.

Related tickers:

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Equity Bottom-Up: KPJ Healthcare and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • KPJ Healthcare (KPJ MK): Continued Recovery; Privatization Talk to Provide Cushion for Downside Risk

KPJ Healthcare (KPJ MK): Continued Recovery; Privatization Talk to Provide Cushion for Downside Risk

By Tina Banerjee

  • Although the operating environment is still challenging, KPJ Healthcare (KPJ MK)’s recovery in financial performance is expected to continue in 2022.
  • The largest shareholder was reportedly in talk to private equity player to take KPJ Healthcare private. Emerging market hospital players are consolidating.
  • In December, the company appointed its new chief operating officer effective immediately.

Related tickers: KPJ Healthcare (KPJH.KL)

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Brief Equities Bottom-Up: Zozo: Looks Like There’s a Dead Cat in This Bouncy Zozosuit and more

By | Equity Bottom-Up

In this briefing:

  1. Zozo: Looks Like There’s a Dead Cat in This Bouncy Zozosuit

1. Zozo: Looks Like There’s a Dead Cat in This Bouncy Zozosuit

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ZOZO Inc (3092 JP) is up almost 30% since its mid February low and roughly flat compared to the date of Michael Causton and our recent collaborative in-depth look (Zozo: A Shooting Star Shooting Itself in the Foot) at the company’s structural problems.

We believe this presents an excellent opportunity to look at the stock on the short side again.

We would also refer readers to an article from Livedoor news which delves into the company’s issues from a local industry insider’s perspective. The article is in Japanese and the google translated version is almost unintelligible but we summarise the salient points and our perspective below.

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