Equity Bottom-Up

• Promised operating leverage is pushed out until likely 3Q22, but only higher employee RSUs is a permanent inflationary impact.
• Overcapacity is almost certainly transitory, as long as the retail business grows, this will be soaked up in a quarter or two.
• AWS backlog is booming again. Amazon’s current valuation = 12x forward AWS sales.

• As one of the few CXOs in the industry that has layout of the whole industry chain, Pharmaron carries many expectations. But it cannot compete with WuXi AppTec so far.
• If Pharmaron could make breakthrough either in its CMC services (improving gross profit margin and scale) or the CGT services, the Company’s outlook and valuation logic would improve greatly.
• The valuation of Pharmaron should be lower than WuXi AppTec and WuXi Biologics, but higher than Asymchem, Tigermed and Joinn. Considering the macro uncertainties, short-term trades are advised.

• Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) 1Q2022 results were all about execution, with significant improvements in take-rates for its Mitra business, and even more so for its marketplace segment. 
• The launch of AlloFresh and Allo Bank Indonesia will add some further depth and breadth to the platform’s product offering and help to accerlate the move towards profitabilty.
• Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) looks like an increasingly interesting way to play the Indonesian digital economy with an expanding ecosystem and increasing take-rates at the same time. 

• Growth in number of subscribers on the back of increased workforce, it may be temporary spike
• Cost pressure visible as per our expectation and the margins continue to be at lower level on Y-o-Y basis
• Buyback of shares within a year of QIP meets more than the eye

• Abbvie Inc (ABBV US) reported mixed results in Q1 2022. While revenue of $13.538 billion missed consensus by $70 million, adjusted EPS of 3.16 beat consensus of $3.14.  
• Q1 revenue from immunology portfolio was $6.141 billion, up 6.9% y/y. Management is still confident of delivering $15 billion combined revenue from Rinvoq and Skyrizi by 2025.
• The company has reduced 2022 adjusted EPS guidance to $13.92–14.12 from $14.00–14.20, to reflect an unfavorable impact related to acquired IPR&D and milestones expenses incurred during Q1.

• Global Cord Blood (CO US) is foraying into multi-billion-dollar cell therapy space through acquisition of privately-held clinical-stage biotechnology company, Cellenkos.
• Cellenkos utilizes umbilical cord blood as the raw material to develop T-regulatory cell therapies for treating autoimmune diseases and inflammatory disorders.
• Global Cord believes that Cellenkos is a perfect fit for the company and that its products can have distinct synergies with the company’s existing line of business.

• China Education Group (839 HK) demonstrates resilience amid market concerns on policy uncertainties by posting a 40.5% growth in 1H22 reported net profit and 20.1% growth in adjusted net profit. 
• Higher education segment saw 44% profit growth and strengths will sustain into 2H22. Weaker secondary vocational and global education segments will witness a sharp recovery, based on latest application statistics.
• CEG has secured increase in tuition and quota in the coming school year, and this will boost FY23 outlook. It opts for an Rmb500m buyback, instead of paying interim dividend.

• Lasertec’s 3Q disappointed as revenue of ¥16.6bn materially undershoot consensus estimates of ¥26.6bn but given quarterly volatility in deliveries and acceptances that is understandable. 
• What is more concerning is the emerging picture of gross margin decline which the company had previously warned about. 
• Given inflated valuations these small negatives together with no guidance raise could drive a continued correction.

• Caixin reported on Wednesday that Meituan (3690 HK) has shut down community-group service (Meituan Select) in Beijing following news that the company plans to shut down operations in loss-making cities.
• Community-Group buying (CGB) became popular in China in 2020 and Meituan entered the market in 3Q2020 and continues to spend heavily on the biz.
• The market became heavily competitive in the form of price war, which attracted regulatory scrutiny and led to large players like Alibaba and JD.com opting out of the market.

• The recent surge in IC test equipment orders is unsustainable. Only service orders maintain a positive trend.
• After peaking this fiscal year, sales and profits are likely to show double-digit declines. When earnings might hit bottom is not clear, but cyclical gearing is high. 
• Earnings could rebound in 2 or 3 years, but visibility is poor. Don’t forget that Advantest has dropped into the red three times in the past 20 years. 

• PPI has begun roll out of new, specialty food stores designed to slot into a variety of shopping malls. 
• On the surface, these stores look like mini-Don Quijote stores, emphasising low prices and a dazzling density of product, but focused on sweets, liquor, cosmetics, or a combination.
• Expansion will help reach new customers, reduce the expense of opening new stores, and help with building scale for private brands. 

• Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV AU) has sole marketed drug, Scenesse, approved in the U.S. and Europe for the treatment of a rare skin disorder that causes extreme sensitivity to light.
• Scenesse revenue jumped 65% y/y in H1FY22, due to increasing patient demand. With the re-opening of expert centers, treatment has largely normalized in Europe.
• Clinuvel has rich pipeline, to develop pharmaceutical products to treat a range of indications and non-prescription healthcare solutions to individuals in the wider population.

• Inline quarter, though margins continue to decline on market share loss and ramping new nodes. 
• Intel is overly optimistic about PCs rebounding in the 2H; 2021’s 15% growth is not sustainable.
• Intel maintained its full year revenue guidance and increased its EPS despite lowering 2Q’s guidance. This implies an acceleration in the back half. We find that overly optimistic

• Brazil’s consumer credit quality trends to February deteriorated further relative to the previous month, despite corporate credit quality improving marginally
• System loan growth was 16.6% for the twelve months to February which was slightly faster than the YoY rate for January (16.4%), totally due to the stronger consumer loan growth
• The BCB is in the latter stages of its benchmark rate hiking cycle, which impacts credit quality, especially in consumer categories; still, Brazilian banks should benefit from higher loan spreads

• Mexico continues to be the key contributor to BBVA group, with the offer for Garanti minorities set to increase BBVA’s share of higher risk higher reward returns from emerging markets
• The revised offer to Garanti minorities is still 10%+ cheaper in Euro terms than at the time of its 4Q21 announcement, with a modest hit of 34bps to CET1 ratio
• We see BBVA as an attractive value play in select emerging markets and Spain, with its well-established digital offerings as a driver for sustained premium returns and premium capital distribution

• Astra International 1Q2022 numbers reflect its prime positioning as a beneficiary of recovering domestic growth in Indonesia and its exposure to the commodities boom through United Tractors (UNTR IJ).
• It has increased market share in autos through Toyota and Daihatsu plus holds a strong position in providing auto, motorcycle, and heavy equipment financing providing further geared exposure. 
• Astra International has a war chest from the sale of Bank Permata which is yet to be deployed but could be in the digital space as a future potential catalyst.

For our next Corporate Webinar, we are glad to welcome Taste Gourmet Group (8371 HK) CFO and Company Secretary, Gerald Yu. In the upcoming webinar, Gerald will share a short company presentation with on-the-ground insights from Hong Kong, after which he will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Analyst Sameer Taneja. A live Q&A session will follow.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Tuesday, 17 May 2022, 17:00 SGT.

Taste Gourmet Group Limited is a Hong Kong-based restaurant group offering a variety of cuisines, under a portfolio of brands, to a diversified customer base. Since the opening of its first restaurant in 2007, the group has owned and operated a total of 34 restaurants offering Vietnamese, Japanese, Chinese, Western, and Drink under 14 brands, including 11 self-owned brands such as La’taste Vietnamese Cuisine, Dab-Pa Peking & Szechuan Cuisine, Dab-Pa Peking & Szechuan Bistro, Dab-pa Modern Chinese Cuisine, Urawa Japanese Restaurant, Nabe Urawa, Rakuraku Ramen, Wasyohuya Yamaichi, Moments Together, Yakiniku Guu, San-Kinn, three licensed brands known as Parkview, Takano Ramen, and Tirpse, and one joint venture brand known as Xianghui.

Corporate Webinars by Smartkarma Corporate Solutions feature discussions with IROs and Executives, discussing their companies, the challenges they face, and the opportunities in their sectors and markets.

• Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) released a strong set of 1Q2022 surpassing expectations and paving the way for strong growth in 2022 driven by an improving product mix.
• ASPs for Arwana are increasing through changing product mix, which is improving margins but not suppressing demand with a move to higher-end Digi Uno and ARNA products. 
• A webinar with management confirmed the positive outlook for 2022, with an estimate of +30% bottom-line growth forecast from increased volumes, greater efficiencies, and higher ASPs through improved product mix.

• Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) released a solid set of 1Q2022 results, with new loan bookings improving to pre-pandemic levels, strong non-interest income, and improving credit costs.
• The bank continues to pursue a multi-pronged digital strategy, with strong growth in mobile banking which now surpasses ATMs on transactions plus the launch of Bank Mayora digital bank.
• Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) has already seen some upward re-rating since the last results but this can continue as its digital strategy bites and loan growth and NIMs improve.

• Channel checks with Merida Industry (9914 TT) and Giant Manufacturing (9921 TT) on the Asia order book provide color on Shimano’s results so far. 
• Channel checks with the Dutch Accell Group (ACCEL NA) also do not show any encouraging data either. 
• Share buyback will provide short term relief but it won’t make revenue growth rate to be as high as early 2021. 

• Oriental Land (4661 JP) fell more than 10% today after a strong earnings beat in 4QFY22, which saw revenue and OP beat consensus by ¥7.0bn and ¥8.6bn respectively.
• The medium-term outlook is very disappointing with the company expecting no pricing growth and low park attendance.
• After moving up nonsensically during COVID due to extremely inflated medium-term consensus, we think Oriental Land’s share price could start falling apart after this medium-term plan announcement.

• HKEX (388 HK) core businesses such as cash market and stock connect remain robust against the backdrop of relatively low expectation.
• Mark-To-Market investment loss underscored the volatile fixed income market, we expect the negative impact will continue into 2Q22 as the shift in rate environment.
• MSCI China A50 future continues its rapid ramp-up, ADV is up 86% quarter-over-quarter. Overall future trading is strong, ADV is up 39% quarter-over-quarter.

• FY22 EBITDA guidance is disappointing as strategic investments accelerate yet again and leaving investors uncertain on whether previous guidance for FY23 can be met
• We think ZHD’s FY23 target of ¥ 390bn in EBITDA is reachable but a meaningful beat, which is factored into consensus, is less likely
• So FY22 is another transition year but without the excitement on the potential for LINE as an alternative theme. It is better to be on the sidelines. 

• AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) results continued to reflect its key exposure to both economic recovery in Indonesia and its exposure to rising commodity prices through its chemical distribution.
• Volume growth in petroleum distribution may surprise on the upside, whilst chemical prices remain elevated boosting that business.
• The pipeline for its JIIPE industrial estate looks promising and management remains confident in targeting 40 ha land sales with potential upside from Freeport Smelter related demand. 

• Solid earnings call heightened our conviction in Facebook as a terrific long for the next year.
• Reels monetization headwind will become a tailwind… just a question of when. TikTok threat is real, but Facebook knows how to clone other’s innovations.
• Apple IDFA issues not worsening, Facebook will figure this out eventually.

• Renesas’ 1Q numbers blew away guidance and consensus as revenue beat by 3.4% and adjusted OP beat by 16%. 
• Revenue growth was strong for both Auto and Industrial with Industrial margins also improving noticeably vs. last Q. 
• Renesas also announced a rather large buyback which is effectively a repurchase of the INCJ’s stake.

• Another quarter another Keyence beat as revenue beat by 5.3% and OP beat by a more modest 4.7% due to high SG&A costs. 
• Sell side analysts on the conference call remain confused by the outperformance vs. peers because they fail to realise that Keyence gonna Keyence. 
• Despite this strength we remain cautious as Keyence is now a truly exceptional company that is being priced like a magical one.

• HCM reported FY revenue of ¥1,025bn, just above our ¥1,010bn estimate and blowing away clueless consensus’ ¥963bn. 
• OP was ¥93.5bn despite the trouble in Ukraine/Russia, just below our ¥95bn estimate and significantly above consensus at ¥86.8bn and guidance of ¥84bn. 
• Guidance for a YoY OP decline is silly in our view and we suspect there will be a double digit increase.

• Ownership in Tesla hits record levels among Global managers. Of the 371 Global equity funds in our analysis, a record 15.1% now have exposure to the stock.
• GARP managers are the most aggressively allocated, with a 0.42% holding on average, though the larger individual positions are held by Growth and Aggressive Growth strategies.
• Despite this record, Tesla remains under-owned by Global active managers compared to large cap peers, and is the second largest underweight in the World

• Results for Q4 and FY22 guidance were mixed with platform sales and revenue largely in-line but margins slightly weaker
• The loss of a major B2B customer wipes out almost all the growth in that segment but core consumer growth remains solid (10%+) as do operating KPIs 
• The read across to parent Z Holdings is limited as the difference in company guidance and consensus operating profit is less than 1% of ZHD consolidated

• Shin-Etsu results were mostly in-line with revenue beating by 5% and OP both within 1% of consensus and just a touch above guidance.
• OP was about 6% weaker than our estimate however driven by the Electronic Materials business. 
• The lack of guidance may worry some investors but trends look positive enough that results should end up materially above consensus.

• Zozo reported yesterday missing slightly across the board with OP missing consensus by 6.7% on a 0.7% miss at the top line. 
• GMV was reasonable due to apparent generosity on reward points and strong promotional spending. 
• OP guidance of ¥51.5bn was noticeably below consensus and while Zozo is considered conservative we expect a miss and long-term stagnation.

• Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology (2208 HK) sees recent recovery in WTG price to be positive; and the increase in average unit size should be good to unit costs.
• Gross margin contracted 3.1pp YoY in 1Q22 and it has put in place many cost reduction initiatives to contain cost inflation. It expects more impacts can be realised in 2H22.
• External order backlog up 6.3% YoY to 16.97GW, with an encouraging 37.7% growth for overseas contracts. We think its 9.9x FY22F PER is inexpensive relative to the clean energy plays.

• Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP) announced yesterday that it will raise the prices of a majority of its domestic beverage brands to pass the rising cost of raw materials to customers.
• Although beers as a whole has a relatively inelastic demand, the price elasticity in different categories of beer varies quite a bit with high malt beers having highly elastic demand.
• We think the price hike could be more detrimental to Asahi than its competitors as the company generates most of its domestic revenue from the price-sensitive high malt beer segment.

• Advantest results were relatively uneventful with a marginal beat at the top line and a marginal miss at the OP level. 
• Guidance was decent however with both revenue and OP above consensus and some lowballing on margins suggesting some upside to guidance. 
• The company also said that it would no longer disclose orders because changing lead times made them less comparable because of course they do…

• This insight focuses on private unicorns backed by Sea Ltd (SE US) , Walmart (WMT US) , Softbank Group (9984 JP) & Prosus NV (PROSY US) 
• Growth would require new and even larger investments across the Internet Sector.  
• Reliance and Tata’s retail plans are likely to challenge even giants like Amazon and Flipkart.

• Koei Tecmo’s earnings yesterday were on the strong side with 4Q OP beating by 28.7% despite a 1.79% miss at the top line. 
• Thus, the typical pattern of heavy expensing of development costs in 4Q was missing and combined with some one offs could make hurdles for next year high. 
• With the stock struggling to gain positive momentum and few clear positive catalysts on the horizon we remain negative.

• Machine tool orders are losing momentum given the geopolitical risks and shortage of materials
• Margins are also order pressure given soaring materials and transportation costs
• FY3/23 OP guidance misses consensus, but it is not conservative. We expect the share price to head lower

• FY Mar-22 sales and profits exceeded guidance, as expected. New orders declined slightly in 4Q but remained above sales.
• Unfortunately, Disco has decided to stop disclosing orders and the order backlog. A cynic would say this signals the peak of the cycle. 
• 1Q guidance looks conservative. That should be no surprise and no catalyst for the stock price. Shipments of blade dicers are forecast to decline by 10%. Beware. 

• The company reports Thursday and markets have priced in bad news (shares down 22% YTD and 38% from November highs) but that pattern of weakness in year-end results isn’t new
• It has happened the last four years as management’s penchant for investment dampens hopes for profitability growth but LINE synergies and digitization should enable double-digit EBITDA growth anyway
• We are posting updated company forecasts/estimates including a separate table for PayPay

• Omron’s 4Q results continued the trend of weakness in the FA sector and guidance was tepid unlike Yaskawa. 
• In particular, the Healthcare Segment’s margins appear to be normalising and poses a downside risk along with typical cyclicality. 
• At 14x EV/OP on guidance vs. a 10x multiple that we would consider fair, there is downside risk here.

• Despite a dead cat bounce in Robomachine coming through as we suggested Fanuc’s 4Q OP missed consensus estimates by 14%. 
• Guidance was strong however with revenue guidance of ¥825.5bn materially above consensus’ ¥797.7bn. 
• This continues a pattern of weak results and strong guidance in the FA sector going into a tightening cycle which is concerning.

• Workman sees an opportunity to disrupt the footwear market by creating Japan’s first national low price chain, with a strong focus on women’s shoes.
• It launched the first store this month with prices as low as ¥680 and expects to have 200 stores in the near future.
• The Japanese footwear market is ripe for disruption as Abc Mart Inc (2670 JP) diversifies and Chiyoda Co Ltd (8185 JP) and Gfoot Co Ltd (2686 JP) struggle to maintain momentum.

• With the Carlyle Group taking a 10% stake in Hyundai Glovis, we believe there could be increasing pressures including through higher dividends and buybacks to return capital to shareholders.
• Hyundai Glovis is likely to get re-rated going forward, driven by profitable expansion into LNG and hydrogen transport, online used car sales platform, and more favorable shareholder return policies.
• Hyundai Glovis’ recent contract with Tesla to ship cars out of China is another positive sign on the growing importance of Hyundai Glovis in the Asian vehicles shipping market.

• Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ) is expected to see pent-up demand, with the gradual re-opening of New Zealand. Long-term demand environment is expected to be positive, due to favorable macro tailwind.
• However, the company is facing regulatory risk. One of its sites in Australia has ongoing litigation risk. Possibility of renewed COVID-19-related restrictions can not be overruled.
• While Ryman has long-term growth engines, these overhangs may limit the near-term upside potential of Ryman shares.  

• The drivers of bike demand are structural and have nothing to do with Covid. We expect the company to beat numbers this year.
• EU regulation will drive huge growth in the bike market over the next several years and Shimano is uniquely positioned to benefit.
• The stock price decline from over ¥35k to under ¥25k has brought valuations down to the bottom of the historical range. 

For our next Corporate Webinar we are glad to welcome UOB (UOB SP) Vice President, Investor Relations, Soh Yi Da.

In the upcoming webinar, Soh Yi Da will share a short company presentation, after which the IR team will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Analyst Daniel Tabbush. A live Q&A session will follow.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Tuesday, 10 May 2022, 17:00 SGT.

UOB is a leading bank in Asia with a global network of more than 500 branches and offices in 19 countries and territories in Asia Pacific, Europe and North America and has grown organically and through a series of strategic acquisitions. 

UOB is rated among the world’s top banks: Aa1 by Moody’s and AA- by both S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings. UOB provides a wide range of financial services globally through its three core business segments – Group Retail, Group Wholesale Banking and Global Markets.

Corporate Webinars by Smartkarma Corporate Solutions feature discussions with IROs and Executives, discussing their companies, the challenges they face, and the opportunities in their sectors and markets. 

• Valorant’s Masters 1 Tournament concluded today in Iceland with North America’s Optic Gaming defeating Brazil’s Loud, leaving Japan’s Zeta Division in third place. 
• These are three key regions for viewership and Japan’s surprising performance bodes well for the esports scene in the country. 
• Gameplay for Valorant Mobile has also leaked and early indications are that Krafton could be cannibalised here.

• Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) released its 1Q2022 this week, reflecting an ongoing recovery and the bank’s strong positioning to take advantage, with new lending picking up strongly.
• The bank is seeing strong growth in CASA driven by its lead in transactional banking and digital initiatives, with its CASA ratio hitting 80% by the end of 2022. 
• Credit costs are also forecast to fall further this year, which will provide an additional boost to profitability. It trades at a premium to peers but generates consistent returns.

• Tencent (700 HK) will announce its first quarter 2021 results on 18th May 2022.
• Since 3Q2021, Tencent’s earnings have started to decelerate, and the previous quarter marked the slowest ever revenue growth for the company since 2004.
• We expect Tencent’s earnings weakness to continue well into 1H2022E due to slowdown in online games and online advertising businesses.  

• Maintain BUY with a new target price of Bt139 (from Bt149) due to a net profit downgrade. Our valuation is derived from the Gordon Growth Model (ROE 9%, growth 2%)
• Management had more cautious views on potential impacts from higher inflation and the Russia-Ukraine war.
• Net profit in 1Q22 came in line with our expectations at Bt10.2bn (+1% YoY, +29% QoQ).

• Maintain BUY rating with a TP of B23.00 based on 16xPE’22E, which is close to +1SD of its five-years average trading.Our rating is premised on positive pet food growth outlook
• We expect 1Q22E earnings to come in at Bt250m (+16%YoY,-6%QoQ), soften QoQ on the back of weak margin outlook from surging raw material costs. 
• We foresee earnings visibility to pick up in 2Q22 onwards, driven by stronger pet food revenue thanks to new capacity and margin improvement given easing cost pressures.

• InnoCare was approved to list in the SSE STAR Market, and the Company also released its improving financial performance in 2021. However, the outlook for InnoCare remains challenging and uncertain.
• Either orelabrutinib or the pipeline, they don’t have pricing power due to lack of sufficient competitiveness and slower development progress, which means that their commercialization performance is highly uncertain.
• There’s no definite commercialization outlook for InnoCare, with a far distance from becoming a biopharma. InnoCare was overvalued and could be attractive if the market value could be 50% off.

• Maintain our BUY call with a target price of Bt162.Our BUY call reflects steady earnings growth, resilient balance sheet,and undemanding valuation. Our valuation is derived from the Gordon Growth Model 
• Net profit in 1Q22 came in at Bt7.1bn, up 3% YoY(+13% QoQ)and 9% lower than expectations on lower gain from financial instruments designed at fair value through profit or loss.
• Asset quality was resilient. The NPL ratio minimally increased to 3.3% and the coverage ratio remained high at 229% against uncertainty.

• Upgrade BUY with a target price of Bt15.00. Our upgrade reflects an attractive upside gain,resilient asset quality,and potential credit costs reduction. Our valuation is derived from the Gordon growth model
• Net profit in 1Q22 came in at Bt8.8bn (+57% YoY, +78% QoQ) and 37% higher than our expectation on lower-than-expected provisions.
• Asset quality improved. The NPL ratio decreased to 3.3% in 1Q22 and the loan loss coverage ratio was higher to 173.6% to withstand uncertainty ahead.

• We have long been bullish on Nagacorp Ltd. on long term fundamentals. We are now seeing rising positivity as market sentiment begins to recognize ASEAN covid recovery coming.
• Stock is at midpoint of 52 week range at HKD$6.97. Our 1 year target is HKD$10.425 based on what we see trending from its 1Q22 unaudited results.
• All revenue segments up: Morgan Stanley report agrees with our view that shares present an immediate opportunity due to potential in cross border gamblers and ASEAN mass.

• Despite solid growth in 2021, if seen from prior years, the revenue YoY growth rate and net profit YoY growth rate showed a state of divergence, which is “interesting”.
• Since half of Tigermed’s net profits were from investment income,it’s not logical to apply the valuation methods of traditional CXO to Tigermed. Its CRO and investment should be valued separately.
• The poor IPO sentiment, risk of recession and the domestic healthcare rational return would make investors reconsider if Tigermed’s “CRO + PE/VC business model” would be a safe play.

• ASE Holding revenue was NTD$144.4bn in 1Q22, which was 20.9% YoY and -16.5% QoQ. We expect the GM is 19.5% in 1Q22.
• ASE Holding could target at NTD$148.1bn/20.5% GM in 2Q22. We expect the gross margin of IC ATM and EMS portions are around 26.8%/9.1% respectively.
• We think it should be picking up since 2Q22 because of the seasonality, and it’s likely to peak out until 4Q22.

• Cimc Enric Holdings (3899 HK) has an encouraging 1Q22 with 24.9% revenue growth. If not the impact of the pandemic and lockdowns in Mar, growth would even reach 35.2%.
• Total new orders increased 23.2% in the quarter even in a period disrupted by lockdowns. Backlog stands at Rmb15.5bn, enough to fully cover FY22 revenue with 7% growth.
• Hydrogen energy business, though still small, witnessed 80.5% revenue growth. Good demand drives new orders to Rmb105.4m; and its backlog of Rmb180m equals to 5x of 1Q22 revenue. 

• We maintain BUY rating for VGI with the new target price of Bt6.20 (Previous TP: Bt6.50), derived from SOTP method or 50% premium to Thai media peers.  
• We anticipate revenue streams from media and commercial space (recently started to manage by NINE),to retreat to 70% of the level we have seen during pre-pandemic by late 2QFY23 (July’22-September’22)
• The management revenue target in FY2023 at Bt6.5bn-7.0bn is fairly optimistic as we anticipate OOH media revenue to not recover that quickly.

• We expect PTTEP to post 1Q22 net profit of Bt9.4bn (-18% YoY, -11% QoQ). Despite significant growth in sales volume and product selling price
• Excluding the one-time items, the recurring profit is expected to be Bt16.6bn (+228% YoY,-3% QoQ). YoY surge will be underpinned  by a 11% growth in sales volume and a 25% 
• Bright 2022 outlook from crude oil & gas price surge. We see the volatility to continue considering continued Russia-Ukraine war tensions, Reserve oil release by IEA members and COVID-19 

• Maintain BUY rating with a TP of Bt445.00 based on 13.7xPE’22E which is close to its 10-years trailing average.
• We foresee 1Q22 core profit to be the bottom quarter at Bt7bn (-53%YoY,-2%QoQ), pressured by tighter chemical spreads after naphtha price soared from higher oil price.
• We expect earnings recovery from 2Q22 onwards, following improve chemical spreads driven by prices catching up with rising costs, plus better CBM and packaging unit.

• We reiterate our BUY rating with a target price of Bt1.60. Our BUY call reflects (1) steady growth ahead; (2) adequate reserves against new NPLs, and (3) compelling valuation.
• Net profit in 1Q22 came in at Bt3.2bn (+15% YoY, +14% QoQ) and was 13% higher than our expectation on lower-than-expected personal expenses.
• Asset quality was resilient. The NPL ratio decreased to 2.7% in 1Q22 and the loan loss coverage ratio was higher to 131.6% to cope with uncertainties ahead

• Founder and Chairman Nagamori has reappointed himself CEO, obscuring the reasons why Nidec’s share price has declined.
• Quarterly earnings should recover, but strategic investments look three years into the future while materials costs rise and the economic situation deteriorates.
• Rising interest rates and compression of valuation multiples are likely to dampen the share price. Look to the long term without expecting a return to the glory days. 

• E Mart Inc (139480 KS) is a very interesting turnaround story in Korea with a visible improvement in profit margins. 
• The end of the social distancing measures will likely lead to a gradual increase of the consumers back to the Emart stores.
• Emart is currently trading at attractive valuation multiples of EV/EBITDA of 5.3x and P/B of 0.3x, using 2022 consensus estimates, which are about 19% discount to the historical average. 

• HK F&B is set to have a reprieve as dine-in services at catering businesses can now remain open from 6 pm-10 pm ( max seating up to 4 people).
• We provide a list of 34 names that will benefit from the removal of restrictions ( some with further catalysts down the road as they are exposed to China)
• Our favorite pick remains Taste Gourmet Group (8371 HK) which we have written about in our insight Taste Gourmet: Multibagger Reopening Play.

• HDFCB’s stock has seen significant volatility over the past one month. The Street seems to have four major concerns, which we think are either unfounded or too myopic.
• A recent concern has been around the compression in NIMs, where the Street is missing the point that this is well offset by lower operating/credit costs per the shifting product-mix.
• HDFC Bank has been gaining market share and with its distribution expansion, the growth is only going to accelerate further. Overall, the current valuations offer an attractive entry point. 

• Jinxin announced in recent days that it further increases stake in Shenzhen Hospital, Jiuzhou Hospital and Hewanjia Hospital.
• In this note, we analyze the impact on the company. We think the acquisition is sensible when the market sentiment is weak. 
• We also summarize recent industry development and the company’s FY2021 results. We are turning relatively more bearish.

• Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) booked a strong set of FY2021 results with sales growing by +68% and net profit by +64%, driven by a strong performance from logistics business.
• Anteraja now makes up 54% of sales and broke even in FY2021, delivering an average of 650,000 parcels per day in 2021, expected to rise to 1.5m by December 2022.
• Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) is a proxy for mobility through car leasing, online and offline used car sales through Autopedia, and last-mile deliveries through Anteraja.

• Revenue of HK$5.27 billion (US$674.8 million), +21.5% YoY and -15.1% QoQ, was at the high end of revenue guidance issued in 1Q22.
• Revenue guidance was US$670 million to US$740 million, which was +5.8% YoY and +4.5% QoQ at mid-point in Q2 2022.
• Usually, the 1st quarter is the weakest of the year. The booking magnitude might be showing how is the industry customers’ confidence now. 

• CCB is our preferred pick, given its attractive valuations, strong capital adequacy, healthy ROE and sound credit quality; CCB’s real estate exposure is limited and it sector delinquency is low
• We also pick PSBC for its good value, its attractive PEG ratio and healthy credit quality and coverage; its real estate exposure, and its related delinquency, are both very low
• We are negative on China Minsheng due to its low ROE, poor delinquency and NPL coverage, its high exposures to real estate relative to its peers and fast rising delinquency

• Intuitive Surgical (ISRG US) Q1 revenue and EPS beat consensus. High-teens procedure volume growth is the brightest spot and management raised full-year 2022 procedure growth guidance to 12–16%.
• After a strong placement in last couple of quarters, Intuitive is seeing some near-term softening of its system placement pipeline in the U.S.
• In near-term, macro headwinds including regional waves of COVID, staffing pressure at hospitals, component and raw material availability, and logistic delays will remain biggest overhang for the company.