Equity Bottom-Up

• We expect strong 30-35% YoY earnings growth in Plover Bay Technologies (1523 HK) for its earnings to be released in July for H1 FY24. 
• We expect the company to continue its 80% dividend payout ratio, which will result in a 4% semi-annual yield (8% annualized). 
• Trading at 12.2x with >50% ROEs and net cash of >30 mn USD, we expect the strong results to catalyze a further multiple rerate.

• Today, according to public news, Kirin Holdings will launch a tender offer for Fancl Corp (4921 JP) at a likely 30% premium. 
• The beauty industry is historically ripe with M&A deals.  It is not hard to see why, as the global beauty sector trades at a hefty valuation multiple. 
• In this insight, we brainstorm for potential buyers of Shiseido Company (4911 JP) and analyze the viability of such. 

• Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK) reported earnings growth of 39% YoY, led mostly by an increase in interest income on the 9.6 HKD/share of net cash/investments on the balance sheet. 
• The company’s net current asset value (NCAV) expanded to 8.2 HKD/share (Vs. FY23: 7.6 HKD/share), and with the stock at 5.2 HKD/share, it trades at a 37% discount to NCAV. 
• The dividend was increased to 45 cents ( from FY23:35 cents/share), placing the stock at an attractive dividend yield of 8.6%.

• Nokia and Foxconn are collaborating to manufacture 5G products in northern Vietnam, potentially boosting the country’s tech industry.
• Huawei’s entry into the automotive tier-1 market raises questions about its impact on traditional car manufacturers.
• The UK semiconductor industry and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) are highlighted at London Tech Week, showcasing their importance in the tech world.

• Intel’s 2023 10K includes two new risk sections relating to its foundry plans and Smart Capital approach to funding them. 
• It labels its foundry plan as “Highly Risky” and rates its chances of success as “highly uncertain”
• They also helpfully warn that they have “limited experience” with the third party foundry business, just FYI

• Forensic Forsight will be a bi-monthly report covering Indian companies having corporate governance issues guiding investors on strengthening their ESG investment framework
• The issue covers SEBI warning against ICICI Bank for manipulation in delisting process of its key subsidiary.
• The report also covers how a EV company disguises shareholders while an Indian renewable energy company is under scrutiny owing to Independent Director Resignation

• Revenue increased by 9.2% YoY to JPY5.8bn, driven by economic recovery and increased inbound demand.
• Operating profit decreased by 52.5% YoY to JPY567mn due to higher advertising and promotional expenses.
• Financial business revenue rose 14.9% YoY to JPY2.5bn, with a 29.4% YoY decrease in operating profit to JPY371mn.

Oryzon Genomics has reported positive interim data from the Phase Ib FRIDA study, evaluating iadademstat in combination with gilteritinib in advanced acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) patients. Results from the first two cohorts (13 patients) showed a favourable safety profile and efficacy signals, with 69% of patients reporting bone marrow (BM) blast cell clearance in the first cycle. Moreover, 38% of patients achieved complete remission with full or partial hematologic or blood count recovery. While we caution against direct read across between clinical trials, this compares favourably to the 26.3% rate (excluding remissions after bone marrow transplantation during the trial) delivered by gilteritinib in the Phase III ADMIRAL study, potentially supporting the synergy of the combination. Oryzon noted that the first two cohorts achieved full target engagement and indicated the scope for dose reduction (to aid faster platelet recovery) under the FDA’s OPTIMUS guidance. A third cohort is being recruited following this guidance.

• Revenue for 1H FY10/24 was JPY85.9bn, up 35.5% YoY, with a business profit of JPY2.2bn, up 146.1% YoY.
• RENOSY Marketplace business revenue was JPY83.6bn, up 35.3% YoY, and ITANDI business revenue was JPY2.1bn, up 34.1% YoY.
• FY10/24 company forecast revised to JPY185.0bn in revenue and JPY3.7bn in business profit, with EPS unchanged at JPY45.90.

• UnitedHealth Group has reported its first quarter financial results for 2024, which reflect the resilience and adaptive capacity of the organization amidst significant challenges, most notably the Change Healthcare cyberattack.
• In addressing the cyberattack, UnitedHealth Group has showcased robust crisis management capabilities, responding swiftly to ensure continuity in care provision and financial support for affected healthcare providers.
• The financial impact of the cyberattack has been substantial, with approximately $870 million in total impact to the quarter and an anticipated full-year impact in the range of $1.15 to $1.35 per share.

• TSMC: +21.3% Premium; Trading at New +15-25% Range This Year
• ASE: +12.7% Premium; We Continue to View 14%+ as Fresh Short Level
• CHT: +1.2% Premium; Good Level to Short Relative to History

• Crucial Vote: Shareholders are voting on Musk’s $56 billion compensation deal and Tesla’s reincorporation in Texas, pivotal decisions for the company’s direction.
• High Stakes: The outcome will determine Musk’s commitment to Tesla, potentially shifting his focus to other ventures and impacting Tesla’s operations.
• Institutional Opposition: Significant resistance from institutional investors and logistical issues for global shareholders create uncertainty. Abstaining from voting counts as a vote against, hindering Elon-supporting retail investors.

• Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) reported a weaker-than-expected FY24 net profit. Despite having HK$2.2bn net cash, the lack of a special dividend is even more disappointing. 
• Surge in unrealised loss on gold loans and a YoY contraction in margin have contributed to the poor 2H24 result. Apr-May operating figures showed a deteriorated operating environment.
• Lacking a special dividend, CTF no longer looks attractive at the current level. Overoptimistic FY25 and FY26 consensus forecasts mean earnings downgrade pressure. 

• Aegis Logistics (AGIS IN) is significantly expanding its LPG and liquid logistics infrastructure across India with rising demand.
• Currently, Aegis has a 15.5% market share in LPG imports in India which they plan to take to 25% in the next few years.
• Surpassed INR 1,000 crores in normalized EBITDA for FY ’24, planned capex of 4500 Crores by FY27.

• AEM (AEM SP) announced a new CEO as of 30th of May 2024. The new CEO officially starts 1st of July 2024.
• Amy Leong will take over from Chandran Nair as she leaves her Chief Commercial Officer role at Formfactor Inc (FORM US). 
• Given the weak business results and inventory management issues it should be expected that Mrs Leong would want to clean the proverbial house before she starts in her new role.

• Travel and box office data in the past three-day Dragonboat Holiday showed worrying weakness despite sharp price cuts by hotel and airlines. 
• Removing travellers from Hong Kong, inbound travel was also quite bad; 
• E-Commerce sales backed by trade-in stimulus outperformed regular merchandises, indicating consumer confidence is still low. We believe the weak travel data boded ill for consumption throughout the year.

• Luckin launched lemonade drinks with raging success of 5.08 mn cups sold for the first week, ~10% of store sales. Market cheered to send the stock higher;  
• We view it with mixed feelings. While it is margin accretive and sales enhancing,  is not conducive to improving coffee penetration and cultivating consumers’ habit for drinking coffee;
• We see Luckin as increasingly one of, instead of the, street drink company, because lemonade is actually the top selling SKU of all milk tea vendors in China. 

• Given the high number of pipeline dropouts, and the potentially disappointing $6 bn psoriasis drug acquisition, we question Takeda’s recent investment track record.
• A big restructuring, high expectations from new/recently launched drug portfolio, and punchy company guidance reduces the probability of upside surprises.
• Unless you are limited from investing outside Japan and you want exposure to an innovative pharma company, we believe that there are better and cheaper options elsewhere.

• India is limiting Chinese participation in Indian subsidiaries while seeking investments from Taiwan, diversifying its economic ties.
• AWS is committing significant funds to establish data centers in Taiwan, anticipating obstacles in securing renewable energy sources.
• Elephantech is seeking collaborators to scale up their eco-friendly PCB manufacturing operations to meet the escalating demand. Join the sustainable production movement.

• Its unclear whether Yemen-based Houthis would end attacks after ceasefire
• We’ve entered peak Summer shipping season from Asia to US, Europe
• Higher spot rates have already lifted contract rates in Q2 2024

• Reliance Industries (RIL IN) is developing a new integrated industrial area in Navi Mumbai, part of a global economic hub.
• This project, supported by a 43-year land lease and strategic partnerships, aims to attract global companies, fostering innovation and economic growth in the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
• Reliance’s initiative will significantly boost Navi Mumbai’s attractiveness as an investment destination, driving regional economic growth and employment opportunities.

• Transsion is the global No. 4 largest smartphone producer according to IDC.
• In 1Q24, shipments increased by 34% YoY and revenue increased by 88% YoY.
• We see the stock’s upside at 17% and the price target at RMB100.00.

• Increased demand from power plants under construction outside  G-7 countries
• There is constrained supply as with many other fossil fuels
• We look at a basket of coal stocks with good balance sheets and increasing production

• Sony plans to achieve profitability in car camera business by 2026, aiming for 6x growth in the sector.
• Samsung cancels anniversary events to focus on new management plan in response to crisis within the company.
• Taiwan’s passive component makers like Yageo and Ample flourish in AI boom, indicating growth potential in semiconductor industry.

• The worst is behind Beijing Capital International Airport. We believe it is on track to achieve breakeven on quarterly basis in 2H24.
• We see recent parking fee hikes at Daxing Airport as a signal that more will come, which is not in the price and can bring in extra option value.
• Boom-And-Bust in China property sector is behind the airport’s share price cycle. The airport is at the cusp of a steady recovery driving mean reversion of valuation .

• i-mobile reported cumulative Q3 FY07/24 revenue of JPY16.3bn (+14.3% YoY), operating profit of JPY3.7bn (+9.2% YoY).
• Consumer Service business cumulative Q3 revenue was JPY14.2bn (+19.4% YoY), with segment profit of JPY3.5bn (+18.9% YoY).
• Online Advertising business cumulative Q3 revenue was JPY2.1bn (-11.8% YoY), with segment profit of JPY316mn (-39.3% YoY).

• Bally’s Corporation is undervalued despite insiders recognizing its potential
• Standard General made a buyout offer of $15/share, prompting Bally’s to form a special committee
• The author predicts that Standard General will increase their bid to take Bally’s private, highlighting it as a compelling investment opportunity.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Around RMB5 billion generic drugs would be included in VBP in 2024/2025 (e.g. sevoflurane/Ioversol/butorphanol tartrate). So, the assumption that all the negative effects of VBP have cleared up isn’t correct.
• Hengrui’s innovative drugs would lose growth momentum after they reach peak sales. It’s difficult for Hengrui to maintain its scale expansion or achieve the over 20% YoY revenue growth.
• Hengrui’s PE would fall below 30 (or even below 20) in the future, which means its valuation would start to enter a downward trend. Current high valuation cannot be justified.

• In cumulative Q3 FY07/24, the company reported sales of JPY30.2bn (-30.0% YoY) and business profit of JPY1.3bn (-80.8% YoY).
• Sales from recurring revenue businesses declined 2.8% YoY to JPY18.3bn, with segment profit falling 7.3% YoY to JPY1.9bn.
• The company revised its FY07/24 year-end dividend forecast to JPY50.00 per share, including a special dividend of JPY24.00.

• Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) is a promising long-term investment with potential for around 50% upside
• Stock is currently undervalued due to low historical book multiples and high short interest
• Company has a cost advantage over peers and strong earnings potential, especially in the event of an avian flu outbreak

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• In February, Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP) extended its writedowns and the shares fell sharply. By end-Feb, we found out Japanese activist Murakami-san had bought shares. 
• I didn’t see the endgame. The pump worked, but he didn’t dump. Then Aozora got Daiwa to be a lead investor through a 3rd party share allotment, diluting Murakami-san.
• Last week we got news the FSA had approved the Daiwa transaction. Yesterday, we got news the Murakami Group would sell its whole stake to Daiwa. 

• Samsonite is similar to another HK-listed company that I have written extensively about, L’Occitane (973 HK), in that they are both western brands selling globally but somehow listed on HKSE.  
• The company announced a share buyback program this morning.  The company targets to repurchase up to USD200m, which is around 4.3% of the total shares outstanding.
• With the announcement of the share buyback plan, it offers an attractive entry point for the stock, as I like the fundamentals of the company and the valuation is cheap. 

• Fast Retailing is due to report Q3 results on 11 July. We update our views on the outlook for the stock heading into the announcement.
• Uniqlo Japan has already released monthly sales data for the March to May quarter. Performance in May was again strong, slightly surpassing our estimates
• We maintain our full year earnings estimates. The stock has declined by around 6% since Q2 results, but remains fully valued.

• One of the key themes this year that has worked well has been Korean food & beverage stocks that have significantly outperformed KOSPI. 
• Some of the best selling Korean foods (especially overseas) include Samyang Foods’ instant noodles, CJ Seafood’s seaweed products, and Wooyang’s frozen gimbab. 
• We prefer a basket approach to investing in Korean F&B stocks. A basket of top 10 F&B stocks in Korea has outperformed the market YTD and this outperformance could continue.

• Debt restructuring in 2021 reduced interest costs and improved profitability, with promoters increasing their stake by 4%.
• Revenue and EBITDA have grown significantly, with a revenue CAGR of 35% and EBITDA CAGR of 72% over the past 3 years.
• Strong export presence and increasing domestic market share indicate robust growth potential despite global economic fluctuations.

• Apple Announces New AI Features at WDC; Shares Surge to New All-Time Highs
• Top Movers: Major Computex Exhibitors See Share Prices Fall Despite Strong Presence
• Computex 2024: Chip Companies Notably Competing to Win PC Makers

• Core Scientific, a leading entity in the cryptocurrency mining and data center sector, has recently positioned itself as a pivotal player in the evolving digital infrastructure landscape.
• The firm reported robust financials for the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2024, showcasing significant growth and operational efficiency.
• Notably, Core Scientific rejected an unsolicited acquisition proposal from CoreWeave, an event that merits analysis concerning its impact on shareholder value and corporate strategy.

• The billion-dollar order that had initially seemed like a game-changer for Wardwizard Innovations turned out to be its downfall as it happens to be a Non Binding MoU. 
• While for an INR 300 crore revenue company billion dollar order was huge, hence stock price rose on the back of rosy picture.
• Promoter used the situation to dump the shares via stake sale as the news of order led to 20% rise in the stock price which eventually raises Corporate Governance Concerns

• SSI grew and expanded, but underwent restructuring after market downturn in 2015
• Share price has not fully reflected improved fundamentals post-restructuring
• Undervalued at P$3.8 per share, with fair value estimate of P$10 per share, offering 160% potential upside for investors

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Cuckoo Holdings is known for its high-quality rice cookers popular among Asians, particularly Koreans
• Stock price of the company has increased due to its success, with dividends rising from 800 to 1,100 per share
• South Korea’s “value-up” program may further boost the company’s growth and attract more investors as the importance of rice in Korean cuisine creates a strong market for its products

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

For our next Corporate Webinar, we are glad to welcome Miniso Group Holding Limited’s Investor Relation Specialist, Ms. Allis-Yueling Chen. 

In the upcoming webinar, Allis will share a short company presentation after which, she will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Eric Wen. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Thursday, 20 June 2024, 16:00 SGT.

About Miniso Group Holding Limited

Miniso Group Holding Limited is a global value retailer offering a variety of trendy lifestyle products featuring IP design. Since Miniso Group opened its first store in China in 2013, they have successfully incubated two brands, “MINISO” and “TOP TOY”. The flagship brand “MINISO” is a globally recognized retail brand and have established a store network worldwide of 6,630 stores in more than 200 countries. The flagship brand “MINISO” offers a frequently-refreshed assortment of lifestyle products covering diverse consumer needs, and consumers are attracted to their products’ trendiness, creativeness, high quality and affordability.

• Firms that split their shares show an avg. return of +25.4% one year after split. That’s more than 2x the average return of the S&P 500 during those periods. 
• Critically, returns post stock splits are mainly seen from announcement to actual split date. Mega caps have shown 9.3% absolute returns 12 months post split. Be cautious of misleading averages.
• On relative terms (v/s S&P500) price returns were down 6.3% 12-months after stock splits. All splits generated negative returns except for Tesla in 2020.

• Patel Engineering (PEC IN) ‘s large order book, strategic sectors focus, and successful debt reduction through QIP and restructuring.
• Strong financial resilience, projected revenue growth, and robust order pipeline signal promising future prospects.
• Poised for growth strong order pipeline and increased government focus on Infrastructure, Hydro Power segment and Irrigation segment.

• While Marui’s credit card business now has in excess of ¥4 trillion in GTVs, its shopping buildings are also doing outperforming the mall sector.
• Sales for all 22 buildings rose 14.5% last year but as much as 24% at some buildings.
• This is the result of new tenants, more services and better marketing based on vast in-house data sources. This data-mining capability will get better and is unique to Marui.

• With ORG offering a 4.9% higher price and securing Zhang Wei’s acceptance, the ball is now back in Baowu’s hands. Good reasons exist for Baowu to raise its offer price. 
• Baowu’s subsidiary Shanghai Baosteel Packaging-A (601968 CH) needs CPMC Holdings (906 HK) more than ORG, given its smaller market share and weaker profitability.
• At ORG’s offer price, CPMC’s PERs for FY24 and FY25 of 15.4x and 14.2x are cheaper than Baosteel Packaging’s 22x and 18.7x. This gives additional justifications for a higher offer. 

• Independent Director’s resignation highlights the lack of strong corporate governance practices within Suzlon. 
• Suzlon Energy’s response to the outgoing director’s concerns demonstrates a willingness to address issues and make necessary changes to enhance corporate governance.
• Though it does not raise concerns on any financial irregularities and legal violation but resolution of issues remains a key event to watch for.

• Concord Biotech Ltd (CONCORDB IN) reported 19% revenue growth in FY24. EBITDA and PAT grew at a faster pace of 26% and 28%, YoY, respectively.  
• With focus on deeper market penetration, acquiring new customers, and introducing new products in niche categories, Concord is well-positioned for 25% revenue CAGR in 3–5 years.
• Despite a huge run-up from the IPO price, Concord shares are trading at forward P/E of 38.9x, which is lower than peers.

• Regenerative medicine remains an extremely exciting area of healthcare with vast investment potential.
• In spite of the usual setbacks in valuation and strategy, the sub-sector has pivoted and the market remains innovative and attracts investment capital.
• Rather than replace entire tissues, which is a complex activity, we believe the immediate future for stem cells is more likely to be in the successful stimulation of the bodies on repair mechanisms.

• AViC upwardly revised its full-year FY24/9 earnings forecast at the time of its 1H earnings announcement, demonstrating renewed and accelerated growth after recovering from the temporary slowdown in growth caused by business conditions and funding difficulties among startups and other emerging companies in FY23/9.
• While many of its competitors are showing sluggish business performance, the Company has been able to pursue growth on its own by committing to improving both client advertising efficiency and in-house productivity through meticulous and data-driven business operations as well as executing its fast-paced Plan-Do-Check-Act (PDCA) cycle.
• Meanwhile, its share price has not risen in line with the boost in EPS, with the latest P/E ratio hovering around 20x based on the revised earnings forecast.

• The Jetstream # 1 appraisal well has been tested at a rate of up to 0.8 mmcf/d with helium concentration of 8.7%-14.5%.
• The flow rate initially reached 0.15 mmcf/d with flowing tubing head pressure of 34 psi. The bottom hole pressure was 162 psi.
• A compressor was then installed at the well head to reduce the flowing tubing head pressure to 20 psi, thereby increasing the difference between the flowing pressure and the reservoir pressure.

• Japanese semiconductor equipment stocks have started to drop back, but device maker Rohm is already down 25% year-to-date and down 43% from its 52-week high. 
• Rohm’s operating profit fell 53% last fiscal year and management is guiding for a 68% decline in in FY Mar-25. Investment in power devices remains strong despite weak sales.
• 1H guidance is for an 80% year-on-year decline in operating profit on a 6% decline in sales. Buy into this weakness. Recovery should start in 2H.

• One interesting interpretation of the new Akeso-summit cooperation is that it aims to pave the way for potential acquisition of Summit by MNC. The climax of the story hasn’t arrived.
• Jacobio is a good target for potential M&A and licensing deals. So, this company has considerable potential returns and also strong safety margin, which is worth taking a gamble on.
• There’re concerns that Genscript could face US scrutiny due to alleged ties with Chinese government. Share price rebound may not last considering geopolitical conflicts and CXO industry downturn in 24H1.

• Tuniu’s revenue grew by 71% YoY in 1Q24, as the company benefited from the travel industry’s recovery.
• Smart Share Global’s revenue plunged by 52% YoY in 1Q24 due to fewer customers in shopping malls.
• PDD plans to price products on behalf of retailers, which reflects the severe competition in e-commerce.

• Shares of RoboSense Technology, a mass producer of LiDAR products and perception solutions, rose ~86% since IPO and outperformed Hesai Group and Hang Seng Index on a YTD basis.
• Founder-Led LiDAR company priced its IPO at HK$43/share and raised ~HK$1B gross proceeds in January. RoboSense shares fell on first day of public trading on the Hong Kong stock exchange.
• Today, RoboSense Technology became the most valuable LiDAR company in the world and is now valued at roughly $4.6B. 

• Tapestry is acquiring Capri, which owns Michael Kors, Versace, and Jimmy Choo
• FTC is scrutinizing the merger due to antitrust concerns in the affordable luxury market
• Capri’s deteriorating fundamentals may lead to a break price of $25 per share, with uncertain success of the acquisition

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Key points

• AMA Group is positioned as the dominant player in the Australian vehicle repair industry
• The company offers opportunities for revenue and cost synergies similar to Boyd’s success in North America
• Mimval’s 2022 write-up on AMA reflects optimism for the company’s growth potential and ability to capitalize on opportunities in the market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• TC Energy Corporation’s TRP.PR.D preferred shares offer attractive total return with limited risk over the next 5 years
• Best suited for PAs and small funds in Canada due to low trading volume and tax advantages
• Consider purchasing a basket of Canadian fixed-reset preferred shares for maximum exposure, potentially converting to Series 8 with a floating dividend rate based on the 90-day Government of Canada treasury bill rate

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Key points

• Dropbox was last pitched in August 2022 with nearly reached $1B FCF guidance for 2024
• Company hit a plateau with guidance for $957M to $997M in last earnings call, factoring in stock-based compensation resulting in over $620M in FCF on an $8.1B equity
• Despite recent drop in equity value, Dropbox offers higher earnings yield and potential upside in equity value compared to Box

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Whilst the Chinese online games market has struggled since 2023, NetEase (9999 HK) has continued to gain revenue market share driven by the success of its mobile titles.
• Future revenue growth will depend on the continued success of NetEase’s legacy titles and its robust pipeline of upcoming releases, including several highly anticipated launches.
• NetEase trades nearly 2 standard deviations below its 5-year historic average PE trading range, a level that has proved to be a very good entry point.

• High potential for additional recoveries with longer liquidation period
• Solvent receivership of Signature Bank offers compelling investment opportunity
• Potential for substantial upside for common equity, preferred equity, and unsecured bonds

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Meituan reported C1Q24 revenue 6.0%/6.2% higher our estimate/consensus, and adjusted net income 19%/29% higher than our estimate/consensus. The stock fell on lower takeout order and in-store revenue guidance for C2Q24;
• The stock has two uncertainties:(1)Strategic moves by Douyin and Eleme,(2)success of overseas expansion. There are no easy answers to these two questions but we believe the corner has been turned
• We maintain the stock as BUY rating and raise TP to HK$156/share to factor in the improvement in profitability.

• Chubb Limited showcased a strong performance in its Q1 2024 update, with notable growth across multiple segments and a robust financial posture.
• The demonstrated acceleration in core operating income by over 20% to $2.2 billion and an operating EPS increase of nearly 23% to $5.41 underlines a solid upward trajectory.
• Particularly impressive was the company’s Property & Casualty (P&C) segment where underwriting income rose over 15% to $1.4 billion, underscoring a combination of earned premium growth and favorable underwriting margins.

• Generac Holdings delivered a mixed performance for the first quarter of 2024.
• Strength in the Home Standby Generator segment and operational improvements played favorable roles, while declines in the global portable generators and domestic energy storage markets were notable drags on revenue.
• Generac’s consistent effort in expanding its dealer and installer networks, alongside investments in both traditional and emerging product lines, solidifies its market leadership and positions it well for long-term growth.

• Manulife Financial Corporation has posted a strong first quarter of 2024, exemplifying solid strategic execution and financial performance across its diversified operations.
• The company reported a 16% growth in core earnings and a significant 20% increase in core EPS, supported by robust contributions from its Asian markets and Global Wealth and Asset Management (WAM) segments.
• Furthermore, core return on equity (ROE) advanced by nearly two percentage points year-over-year to 16.7%, surpassing the medium-term target of 15%.

• Ciena Corporation reported its fiscal second quarter 2024 financial results, delivering a mixture of strengths and areas for caution.
• Revenue for the quarter reached $911 million, aligned with market expectations but reflecting the ongoing variability in the order patterns of service providers, particularly impacted by inventory adjustments.
• The adjusted gross margin stood at 43.5%, showcasing the company’s ability to maintain profitability even in a fluctuating market scenario.

• Sun Life Financial’s first quarter of 2024 delivered mixed financial outcomes, indicative of diverse operational strengths and challenges across its array of business lines and geographical areas.
• The company’s broad diversification strategy remains a fundamental pillar, helping to absorb regional and segment-specific volatilities.
• On the positive spectrum, the company witnessed a robust 30% growth in individual protection underlying earnings in Asia, driven by significant sales increases in Hong Kong and stable performance in India.

• Progressive Corporation reported strong first quarter results for 2024, marking a period of robust growth and profitability.
• This quarter was highlighted by an 18% increase in net premiums written and an impressive combined ratio of 86.1%.
• These results represent both growth and a sound strategic approach to rate revisions and risk management, reflective of the company’s core values and business strategy.

• Travelers Companies Inc.’s first quarter 2024 results exhibit a strong financial performance characterized by solid growth in both top-line and bottom-line metrics, further strengthened by strategic initiatives and investments that bolster its market position.
• The company reported core income of $1.1 billion, reflecting a notable increase from the previous year, despite facing a $211 million one-time tax benefit in the prior year’s quarter.
• This performance was bolstered by a core return on equity of 15.4%, showcasing effective capital utilization.

• Fonterra Shareholders Fund’s dividend yield was 14.2% in 2023. Its dividend yield averaged 8.7% in the past three years. 
• Fonterra Co-Operative Group, is a New Zealand based multinational dairy cooperative. Outside investors who are not allowed to hold shares in Fonterra Co-Operative Group can invest in Fonterra Shareholders Fund. 
• In May 2024, Fonterra announced that it plans to sell off its consumer products businesses and concentrate on business to business sales as a dairy ingredients supplier.

• Indie Semiconductor’s Q1 2024 financial results and strategic discussion provide both encouraging and cautionary insights.
• During this period, the company reported a year-over-year revenue increase of 29% to $52.4 million, driven by strong performance in their Autotech market segment, albeit slightly below the provided guidance.
• Gross profit stood at $26.4 million, reflecting a gross margin of 50.3%, which fell short of expectations due to unfavorable product mix adjustments.

• Samsung chairman kicks off US visit with Verizon, highlighting importance of partnerships for expanding US market presence.
• French tech startups shine at InnoVEX, showcasing innovation and talent in the tech industry at Computex 2024.
• Taiwan chipmakers showcase cutting-edge tech at Computex 2024, while India’s EV market shows promise and challenges with Modi’s third-term win.

• KANTSU Co., Ltd. (hereafter, “Kantsu”) is a warehouse logistics specialist providing comprehensive logistics services, including warehousing, inventory management, and delivery of products sold by e-commerce (EC) and catalog businesses, handling approximately 12 million shipments per year.
• The Company has also created a highly profitable business by selling its in-house developed IT systems that streamline operations to external customers.
• In terms of sales and profits, the Company’s two main drivers are its Logistics Services Business and IT Automation Business.

• The first quarter fiscal 2025 earnings by Best Buy Co., Inc. demonstrated some mixed results.
• On the positive side, it highlighted that the company had better-than-expected Q1 profitability through strong execution and preparation for future growth.
• The company has been driving improvements in its priorities and its operational metrics.

• BurgerFi International is currently examining a strategic decision involving the possible sale of the company.
• This review comes in the wake of their reported financial outcomes for the first quarter of 2024.
• Analyzing the financial data and strategic initiatives articulated during the earnings discussion can provide insights into the potential advantages and challenges related to such an acquisition.

• As per the Q1 2025 earnings, Asana experienced a positive start to the year, with revenues growing 13% year-over-year.
• Revenue from large customers grew even faster.
• Non-operating margins also improved by 5 percentage points year-over-year.

• In its second quarter of fiscal 2024, Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) reported notable performance, surpassing its initial revenue and non-GAAP diluted net earnings per share (EPS) expectations.
• This growth was primarily driven by a robust increase in demand for AI systems, highlighted by a significant uptick in revenue contributing to a cumulative AI systems orders of $4.6 billion for the quarter.
• HPE’s optimistic outlook is further supported by a raise in full-year revenue and non-GAAP EPS guidance, though it maintains its forecast for free cash flow.

• CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. has reported its fiscal first quarter 2025 results, demonstrating robust growth and financial performance.
• CrowdStrike’s investment appeal is anchored on its comprehensive cybersecurity solutions delivered through the Falcon platform, an AI-native software that consolidates various cybersecurity functionalities.
• This platform strategy leverages artificial intelligence to enhance cybersecurity measures, streamline operations, and improve cost-efficiencies for clients.

• Guess?, Inc.’s Q1 fiscal 2025 showed a strong start to the year, with significant progress on operational, strategic, and financial objectives.
• The company reported results for the first quarter exceeding expectations in revenues, operating earnings, and per share results.
• Sales growth was recorded in each of their segments and gross margins expanded favorably impacting the bottom line.

• Last September, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Group affiliate Aisin (7259 JP) said they would get rid of ALL their cross-holdings. That signalled a future sea change in Toyota intra-group relations.
• It meant all Toyota group companies could do that. The big moves started with a multi-party offering of Denso Corp (6902 JP) shares – Toyota, Toyota Industries, and Aisin sold.
• Then others. Then in March, Denso announced a 2.5yr selldown of ~¥460bn of Toyota Industries shares. That meant a TI buyback was likely. We got one. Now we have details.

• Activist short seller Scorpion alleges Lasertec is a “colossal fraud” and “ticking time bomb”
• Most of their allegations relate to problems with Lasertec’s EUV mask inspection tools
• Lasertec achieved Intel’s distinguished supplier ward for the past six years and last December landed an award from TSMC for  “Distinguished EUV Mask Inspection and Metrology Collaboration”. What gives?

• During the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival, both flight and railway traffic seems sluggish, indicating a cooled-down enthusiasm for long-distance trips due to budget constraints.
• Data points to booming short-distance travel with self-driving as the major means, helped by lower price;
• Benefiting from hotel booking and catering, Meituan is the biggest beneficiary of such consumption downgrade.

• Total revenue increased by 25% YoY and all business lines grew strongly.
• In 1Q24, the operating losses from new initiatives decreased by 45% YoY, but new initiatives revenue still grow.
• We conclude that the price target can be double of the market price.

• There is nothing in the main investments at JM that suggests the grind lower on ROE and net profit will suddenly reverse, rather it should continue
• Astra International, Hong Kong Land, and DFI Retail are key to JM and there is little joy here, with HKL potentially having more valuation impairments
• Quarterly figures from Astra, which are a window on the current interim for JM, are not positive, with the worst quarter in over one year

• Water Oasis (1161 HK) reported profits down 30% YoY (ex-one-off profits down 9% YoY only), but commentary cited headwinds in the business due to muted HK economic sentiment.
• Anticipating these headwinds, the company cut its semi-annual dividend by 50% to only 3.5 cents (implying a 7% yield on the current share price) despite a massive cash buildup.
• Net cash at 396 mn HKD is now 58% of the market cap. Given the current economic backdrop, we see a conservative approach to dividend payment in the medium term. 

• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) is planning to launch its 2nm in 2025.   
• TSMC is expected to acquire one High-NA EUV machine this year for R&D purposes, but it will not be used for commercial production.
• TSMC is expected to increase the cost of its Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate (CoWoS) package by around 15% in 2H24.

• After a strong 68% increase in share price in 2023, Saizeriya (7581 JP) has been trading range bound, and up 8% year-to-date in 2024. 
• Continued weakness in Japan on the profitability front in 1HFY24 offset continued strong performance in China.
• Japan’s operating profit is set to improve in the second half of the current fiscal year (ending August), and China’s strength will continue on the back of accelerating store openings. 

• Air Liquide investing $250M in new US facility for Micron gas supply, reflecting commitment to growth and sustainability.
• Maruti Suzuki focusing on renewable energy expansion in India, showing dedication to environmental initiatives and reducing carbon footprint.
• EVs driving demand for high-tech satellite dishes, while Nvidia aims to hire 50% foreign workers for new R&D center in Taiwan. EU-China tariff risks highlighted.

• Countries across the ASEAN region continue to invest on developing their respective EV markets with governments introducing new initiatives and offering further incentives.
• The price war among Chinese EV players has escalated in recent month, causing pressure on non-Chinese players. European and Japanese EV makers are increasingly looking at ASEAN for cost advantage.
• The four companies we looked at have reported earnings and we have discussed their latest results and our investment thesis.

• A stabilizing property market matters more than other factors such as industry rivalry and shareholder return policies for the performance of leading China e-commerce players in our view.
• China’s worst property market downturn is probably behind us. This will gradually help restore consumer confidence and lift consumer propensity to spend, improving growth outlook for China e-commerce sector.
• We believe China e-commerce players will in general benefit from a stabilizing housing market. Alibaba remains the most attractive play in the space. 

• A high disease burden, high demand for chronic treatment, and an ageing population makes China an excellent opportunity for an established pharma company.
• With 1/3 of the market cap in cash, a healthy payout ratio, and a FPE of under 8, CMS is one of the bargain beneficiaries in the Chinese healthcare space.
• The founder/CEO recently purchased 8m shares. He last bought shares in 2020-2021. The share price almost tripled afterwards.

• Onewo (2602 HK), a leading China property management company with the controlling shareholder being China Vanke (H) (2202 HK), announced a major share repurchase mandate last night.
• The company intends to repurchase its shares in the open market up to HKD5.8bn, which is around 20% of the current market cap. 
• The company is trading at 13x 2024E PE on around 15% net profit growth in 2024E, and at 5% forward dividend yield. 

• Foxconn’s Hyderabad factory to begin producing Airpods in August, as confirmed by Telangana official.
• Qualcomm CEO backs Arm’s forecast of 50% Windows PC market share in 5 years.
• UnaBiz achieves record-breaking 90% accuracy with AI-enabled Wi-Fi geolocation; Nvidia and Foxconn unveil advanced computing center in Taiwan. EU establishes AI office to enforce AI Act. Tower Semi awaits wafer fab approval in India post-elections. Win Semiconductors propelled by mobile phone surge into 2024.

• Vanguard announce the establishment of a 12” Fab in Singapore with 60% stake, with Nxp Semiconductors Nv (NXPI US) will invest remaining 40%.  
• The nodes produced will span from 40nm to 130nm, encompassing mixed-signal, PMIC, and analog ICs to support automotive, industrial, consumer, and mobile applications.  
• Vanguard will uphold a healthy cash balance, along with large debt and a follow-up cash offering.

• Apollo-Managed funds and affiliates will lead an investment of $11 billion to acquire from Intel a 49% equity interest in a joint venture entity related to Intel’s Fab 34
• This deal follows a similar mid-2022 deal with Brookfield to co-invest in two new leading edge fabs in Arizona at a cost of up to $30 billion
• Why make the deal with Fab 34 in Ireland instead of the Ohio fab under construction?

• Surge in revenue during 1Q24 may have implications for a return to strong profit growth
• There is no evidence of structurally weaker core costs, like COGS and SGA and even R&D
• ROE is now above 20% and this after it large capital raising in FY22

• Marvell had a pretty solid result and guided to sequentially better revenue.

• The market didn’t like this, but I thought, looking through the result, I liked this result quite a bit. Shares did not.

• Marvell Technology reports Q1 EPS $0.24 ex-items vs FactSet $0.24.

• Lasertec shares dropped nearly 8% following a scathing 53-page report by Scorpion Capital, accusing management of “colossal fraud.” 
• The SC report is shrill, in our view, and therefore, we think we add value by contributing a second opinion. 
• In our view, Lasertec is due for a correction even if SC’s report is inundated by hyperbole.

• CP Axtra (CPAXT TB) is a merger upon a merger combining the Makro wholesale business and the Lotus hypermarket and supermarket businesses, along with a hybrid mall operation. 
• The combined entity continues to realise operational synergies in sourcing and logistics, with a strong B2B element. Omnichannel makes up more than 16% of sales and is growing rapidly.
• CP Axtra (CPAXT TB) provides an alternative retail exposure to its parent CP ALL (CPALL TB) with ongoing restructuring benefits still to be realised. Valuations look attractive relative to growth.