In today’s briefing:
- Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety
- Alibaba (9988 HK): Buy JD Logistics as the Business Model Alibaba Begins to Follow
- HDFC – Amalgamated, We List Its Own Key Synergies, Which Appear Tremendous
- Great Wall Motor Eyes Expansion in Vietnam Amid Southeast Asia Push
- Siemens Energy: Profit Warning Offers Buying Opportunity
- [Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$109) Company Update]: Racehorse Mechanism Benefits E-Commerce
- Takara Bio (4974 JP): Corona Cliff Set to Jeopardize FY24 Financial; Formulated FY26 Management Plan
- Bank of Chongqing – One Of Worst NIM Contraction, But With High Loan Growth
- Nano Dimension – Record quarter for revenue
- abrdn Private Equity Opportunities Trust – Coping well with the tough environment
Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety
- We compile our selection of small and mid-cap names with our desired characteristics of high dividend yields, value, and margin of safety.
- Post the interim results, we provide short updates on each company and links to our latest work on them.
- Our top picks are Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK), Water Oasis (1161 HK), Taste Gourmet (8371 HK), Uchi Technologies (UCHI MK), and The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM).
Alibaba (9988 HK): Buy JD Logistics as the Business Model Alibaba Begins to Follow
- Alibaba’s new chairman decides to provide logistics service to outside customers.
- We believe Alibaba is following JD Logistics, as both companies have large retailer bases.
- We suggest buying JD Logistics the role model instead of Alibaba the follower.
HDFC – Amalgamated, We List Its Own Key Synergies, Which Appear Tremendous
- News out this morning that HDFC Bank and HDFC merger became effective 1 July
- This occurred after the Boards approved the merger scheme on 30 June
- Funding cost benefits, operating cost synergies, product cross-sale: major benefits
Great Wall Motor Eyes Expansion in Vietnam Amid Southeast Asia Push
- Great Wall Motor Co. Ltd. (601633.SH +2.50%) said on Wednesday that it will enter the Vietnamese market in August with its Haval H6 hybrid model, while a broader plan to build an assembly plant for new-energy vehicles in the country is set for 2025.
- The Haval H6s will initially be exported to Vietnam from its manufacturing facility in Rayong, Thailand, the Hebei-based carmaker said earlier.
- Vietnam is the fourth-largest auto market in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region after Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia, according to 2022 passenger car sales figures released by the ASEAN Automotive Federation.
Siemens Energy: Profit Warning Offers Buying Opportunity
- Since its spin-off from Siemens Group’s former Gas and Power division three years ago, momentum for the new formed Company has been picking up
- Siemens Energy is experiencing a rise in demand for green transition technologies as governments worldwide move away from fossil fuels.
- Siemens Gamesa has recently announced a profit warning. We feel that the market over-reacted as the shares plunged over 37% on the day, erasing €7bn in Siemens Energy’s market value.
[Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$109) Company Update]: Racehorse Mechanism Benefits E-Commerce
- We recently discussed BABA’s management changes with more e-commerce practitioners, and our main conclusion is that this change will be more beneficial to BABA’s e-commerce business rather than other subsidiaries;
- BABA is expected to learn from Tencent and ByteDance by shifting from a centralized authority model to a racehorse mechanism. Some subsidiaries, especially AliCloud and Cainiao, undergo a painful transformation;
- This may be good news for BABA because its e-commerce is the largest of its valuation. We also remind investors to exercise caution regarding the upcoming IPOs of BABA subsidiaries.
Takara Bio (4974 JP): Corona Cliff Set to Jeopardize FY24 Financial; Formulated FY26 Management Plan
- Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP) is anticipating 32% YoY decline in revenue to ¥53B in FY24. Both operating and net profits are expected to decline more than 60% YoY in FY24.
- The company has formulated the medium-term management plan 2026 for the three-year period ending in FY26, with the final-year quantitative targets being operating profit of ¥15 billion and ROE 8%.
- Considering Takara Bio’s FY24 operating profit guidance of ¥8B, FY26 target seems to be aggressive and difficult to achieve.
Bank of Chongqing – One Of Worst NIM Contraction, But With High Loan Growth
- Combination of high NIM contraction with high loan growth is not a good combination
- BOC has seen its NIM down 14% in the past year but against 12% loan growth
- PBOC pressure to cut rates and for banks to support ailing debtors, is a risk
Nano Dimension – Record quarter for revenue
For Q123, Nano Dimension reported good progress in revenue, up 43.5% y o-y and 23.6% q-o-q to $15.0m. Continued investment in R&D resulted in an adjusted EBITDA loss of $23.7m. Revaluation of the company’s stake in Stratasys and interest income earned on cash resulted in net income of $22.2m for the quarter. With net cash of $974m at quarter end, the company is well-funded to pursue its acquisition strategy.
abrdn Private Equity Opportunities Trust – Coping well with the tough environment
abrdn Private Equity Opportunities Trust (APEO) posted a 12-month NAV total return (TR) to end-May 2023 of 7.0%, supported by continued strong portfolio earnings momentum (up 28.7% over the 12 months to end-March 2023 for APEO’s top 50 holdings). Muted global M&A volumes continue to weigh on private equity (PE) exit activity, with APEO’s capital calls in the calendar year to end-May 2023 (£74.0m) outpacing distributions (£54.1m). That said, APEO’s undrawn credit facility and cash of £243.4m at end-May 2023 provide it with decent near-term balance sheet headroom, as these cover 35% of APEO’s outstanding investment commitments (which should be drawn gradually in the coming years).