Equity Bottom-Up

• In 3Q24, game revenue increased by 13% YoY, higher than our estimate, 9% YoY.
• The gross margins of all business lines improve in 3Q24, especially “others”.
• We set the upside at 50% and the price target at HK$605 for the end of 2025. Buy.

• Although it is UNCERTAIN when the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East will end, if these wars indeed come to an end, this could POSITIVELY IMPACT Korean construction sector.
• The end of the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East is likely to NEGATIVELY IMPACT the Korean military/defense sector. 
• The major Korean construction companies have low valuation multiples. On the other hand, the major Korean military/defense companies have high valuation multiples.

• Sea (SE US) ‘s management expects all three business segments – ecommerce, financial services and entertainment – to deliver high growth and profitability in 2025, supported by strong macro-eceonomic tailwind.
• It’s GAAP revenue was US$4.3 billion, up 30.8% year-on-year and net income was US$153.3 million, as compared to total net loss of US$(144.0) million for 3Q2023.
• Its e-commerce business achieved positive adjusted EBITDA in 3Q 2024 in both Asia markets and Brazil.

• ARM reported good numbers with steady guidance for the coming quarter.
• Qualcomm’s earnings performed well, but concerns exist over rising costs and potential loss of customers.
• Uncertainty surrounds US government policies on semiconductor manufacturing and trade with China, impacting industry players like Intel and Nvidia.

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• Although Hong Kong markets have slumped after Trump’s election, mainland China’s markets have gained.  Southbound net buying of HK stocks hit a 2024 high on the day Trump won.
• Sands China (1928 HK) had a breakout from a double top as Macau recorded good Golden Week arrivals.  Blue Moon Group Holdings (6993 HK) had a breakout after 3 years.
• CanSino Biologics (6185 HK) formed a breakout after a new vaccine was approved and it reported better results.  Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK) share price advanced as it expands stores.

• US market continues to see historical high; in the real estate space, we look at Prologis, the world’s largest logistics company
• We like the sector on the back of strong structural demand drivers and depleting supply.  Logistics is the future and we think Prologis is the name to own
• Broader real estate index is up 8.3% YTD, while PLD is down -15% YTD.  Valuation is attractive, we think PLD has room to catch up

• Paladin Energy faces water supply disruptions from NAM Water in Namibia, leading to a drop in guidance for Langer Heinrich uranium mine.
• The company has adjusted its FY25 uranium production guidance from 4-4.2 million pounds to 3-3.6 million pounds.
• Despite the challenges, Paladin Energy remains confident in meeting customer delivery obligations and has flexibility in contracts to manage the situation.

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• SharkNinja’s third quarter of 2024 financial performance highlighted several strengths and strategic initiatives that point to its robust market position and growth trajectory, balanced by some areas of concern that underline potential risks.
• Displaying a strong performance in adjusted net sales and adjusted EBITDA growth, SharkNinja reported substantial year-over-year increases, demonstrating resilience and strategic agility in a fluctuating economic environment.
• The global teams’ efforts mirrored in a 35% rise in adjusted net sales and 26% growth in adjusted EBITDA, showcasing strong operational execution and market responsiveness.

• Foxconn’s reforms at Sharp result in significant profit growth in 2Q24.
• Taiwan supply chains brace for impact of Trump’s imminent global tariffs.
• Apple to boost iPhone production in India following Trump victory, taking advantage of evolving global trade dynamics.

• Nexon’s 3Q24 earnings report saw its stock dip -17% as revenue missed guidance and foreign exchange losses weighed on the bottom line.
• Nexon’s operating profit rose +11% y/y to ¥51 billion, with an operating margin of 38%
• The stock is trading at 8.5x EBITDA, which makes it very attractive versus the sector

• Nidec’s Q2 operating income beat my estimates, driven by strong small motors and appliance segments, though automotive profits underperformed
• The automotive division is shifting focus from e-axles to broader auto parts, while improving operational efficiency through partnerships and streamlined logistics
• Despite macro risks, Nidec remains well-positioned for long-term growth in digitalization, decarbonization, and automation, with a price target of ¥4,350

• TXN reported 3Q24 last night: EPS 7% above Consensus, small beat. However, 4Q guidance shows a delayed / tepid recovery: revenue to decline -6% YoY, EPS to decline -21% YoY.
• Industrial demand is still declining steeply -23% YoY, “hovering at the bottom”. Auto revenue -2% YoY with growth in China but rest of world is declining. 
• The stock is trading at 31x 2025 and 25x 2026 Consensus EPS, way above its valuations range.

• Global smartphone shipments expected to increase beyond 2025, with OLED technology gaining popularity in tablets and notebooks while Mini LED becomes less preferred.
• Uncertainty over whether Trump will end TSMC’s subsidies for Arizona factory, impacting material suppliers benefiting from TSMC’s growth in 3Q24.
• PSMC chairman shifts from cautious approach towards India to optimism with new partnership with Tata, while Horizon Robotics’ Hong Kong IPO supported by Alibaba, Baidu, and TSMC for manufacturing.

• Our core pick is Brazilian exchange B3; this is a contrarian call, given its poor share price performance year to date, but it is attractively priced versus its peers
• B3’s share of post-trade revenue is understated, and it is a well-diversified exchange in terms of the product offering, which includes cash equities, equity derivatives, FX, interest rates and commodities
• We also like Hong Kong Exchange, with its high share of post-trade revenues; HKEx should benefit from improving investor sentiment towards China, boosted by the Chinese government’s recent economic stimulus

• Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ) experienced a massive inflection in its revenue with 21.9%/35% revenue/net profit growth as we approach the Q4 high season. 
• Earlier, parent Heineken NV (HEIA NA)  had flagged in its H1 2024 report that Indonesia was experiencing double-digit growth following excise duties implemented in January 2024.
• Trading at 11.5x FY24/net cash with >8% dividend yield and historical ROCEs averaging over 80%, we see a turning point in the share price now. 

• Together with the just-announced HK$0.40 special DPS, SITC International (1308 HK) has already handed back HK$1.12/share to shareholders YTD, realising a dividend yield of 6.5%.
• Its 3Q24 performance is impressive, with revenue surging 56.6% YoY. Both volume (+13.4%) and average freight rates (+44.1%) have exhibited solid momentum. 
• While the consensus forecasts have been upgraded by 7-11% since the 1H24 result, there appears more room to go. FY24 ROE is now expected to be 32.2%.

• Goldwin has big plans for both The North Face in the Japanese and Korean markets and for its own brand globally.
• But there are worries about saturation for the former in Japan, slowing brand development, and lack of expertise in overseas markets to build its own brand.
• Goldwin has had an amazing run but can it build a global brand? If it can, it will feed into high levels of demand for Japan-tech sports brands.

• In 3Q24, Samsung Biologics (207940 KS) reported 15% YoY revenue growth to KRW1,187B, driven by the contribution of Plant 4, the full utilization of Plants 1–3, and biosimilar products.
• The company has raised 2024 annual revenue growth guidance to 15–20% YoY from 10–15% earlier, driven by successful ramp-up of Plant 4 and favorable Fx movement.
• The company has signed record-breaking CMO contract with an Asian pharmaceutical company, thereby bringing the company’s total new contract value for the year to more than $3.3B.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, $30 price target and projections for JAKKS Pacific with the company announcing 3Q24 (September) results after the close on Wednesday.
• We remain confident in our inline projections for the quarter, and believe the company, with a strong, somewhat lower-risk Holiday movie lineup in 2024, the beginning of the ramp of the Authentic Brands and The Simpsons license expansions, and the potential upside for Dog Man and the company’s own Wild Manes line launch, is well positioned to drive top and bottom line upside into 2025.
• As such, we reiterate our Buy rating and $30 price target for JAKK.

• What you need to know: • EDG announced assay results for four drill holes as part of its 10,000m 2024 drill program; it has completed 22 holes (6,100m) to date.
• • Today’s results confirmed strong mineralization in large untested gaps between Eagle & Imperial, also confirming mineralization at depth.
• • A 2nd drill rig has been added to accelerate the drill program – this rig will test the near-surface portion of the Eagle Zone.

• Konica Minolta, a key player in the Japanese office equipment market, presents an attractive investment opportunity, particularly in light of the recent actions by activist investor Effissimo.
• The investment case for Konica Minolta hinges on several factors, including potential structural reforms, M&A activity, and undervaluation.
• Given Effissimo’s track record with Ricoh and the broader industry dynamics, the thesis for a bullish outlook on Konica Minolta is compelling.

• On the 27th September, China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK) (CMCDI) teased a share buyback and a special dividend. But as of today. no firm details have been forthcoming. 
• CMCDI has also now offered to reduce management fees by 25 basis points in the new management agreement, which will be voted on  by independent shareholders in November/December.
• This concession does not go far enough. Especially when 45% of the management fees are received by founder Victor Chu. 

• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has reported a robust performance in the third quarter of 2024, underscored by significant revenue growth driven by both smartphone and AI-related demand.
• The company’s industry-leading 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer technologies have been at the forefront of this demand surge.
• Revenue for the third quarter increased sequentially by 12.8% in New Taiwan dollars, reflecting not only strong demand but also higher capacity utilization and cost improvement efforts.

• Neil Chenoweth wrote a detailed investigative piece on Min Res founder Chris Allison and former top executives, alleging a tax evasion scheme using shareholder funds.
• The scheme involved buying machinery with inflated prices from a company named Far East Equipment Holdings in the British Virgin Islands.
• Min Res stock dropped 13% in response to the article, with implications on leadership and governance of the company.

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• A lot has happened since we published our Disney thesis back in February.
• On the corporate front, Disney emerged victorious from its proxy battle with Nelson Peltz and managed to patch things up with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
• In media, Disney posted its first streaming profit—ahead of schedule—and secured the NBA’s coveted “A Package,” though it came with a hefty price tag.

• Hong Kong markets continue to outperform globally this year with short selling declining and mainland buying increasing.  These trends should accelerate going into next year.
• Sun Art Retail (6808 HK)resumed trading after announcing that the company is entertaining one or more potential acquisition plans for the company.  The company also announced strong 1H25 earnings.
• Shanghai Electric Group Company (2727 HK) announce a buyback plan for 10% of A and H shares outstanding.  The company also announced the acquisition of the China Fanuc robotics business.

• Nextracker’s first-quarter earnings for the fiscal year 2025 have offered a mixed yet promising insight into the company’s financial and operational trajectory.
• The company reported a significant 50% year-on-year growth in revenue and recorded its highest-ever adjusted EBITDA.
• These figures underscore Nextracker’s strong performance, particularly in a financial landscape characterized by a keen focus on renewable energy solutions.

• China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK) is sitting on a steep discount of 59% to its NAV. Its holding in Anhui Conch Cement (600585 CH) is already valued at HK$13.3/share.
• Its waste-to-energy business has a value of Rmb4.4bn by assuming 5x PER, but this business has a net book value of Rmb10bn. Pipeline capacity equals 21.7% of operational capacity.
• The new energy segment, including lithium battery recycling and the manufacture of positive and negative electrode materials, has solid prospects but is overlooked by the market.

• Foxconn is expanding its SDV development efforts to further the advancement of smart car technology.
• Intel is seeking collaboration with Samsung to better compete with TSMC in the competitive foundry market.
• Nvidia is collaborating with Indian partners to develop a custom chip for the Indian market, while Xiaomi launches China’s first 3nm SoC.

• Netflix’s third-quarter performance for 2024 highlights several key developments that provide a nuanced view of its position in the competitive streaming market.
• On the financial front, Netflix delivered strong results, surpassing expectations on both earnings per share ($5.40 vs. $5.12 expected) and revenue ($9.83 billion vs. $9.77 billion expected), reflecting a 15% year-on-year growth.
• The company added 5.1 million new subscribers, slightly above Wall Street expectations, bringing its total membership to 282.7 million.

• Delfi Ltd (DELFI SP) saw some impact from the weaker IDR and higher cocoa prices in 1H2024 but prospects for 2H2024 look more promising with less expected disruption.
• The company continues to roll out new distribution across modern trade independent and general trade as well as new variants for existing best-selling brands such as Silver Queen chocolate.
• The company remains confident that the cocoa price will decline from current levels although it may remain higher than historic levels. Valuations remain attractive. 

• Despite a share price correction this month, JD.com (9618 HK) remains firmly amid an earnings upgrade cycle driven by improved profitability expectations.
• Following significant share price volatility over the past 2 months, JD.com’s near-term momentum indicators currently display bullish signals.
• JD.com still trades at more than one standard deviation below its 5-year historic average forward PE ratio, and near the lowest level it has ever been.

• Haemonetics Corporation’s first quarter fiscal year 2025 results reveal mixed outcomes in a challenging market scenario.
• The company reported a revenue of $336 million, which represents an 8% increase on a reported basis and a 3% organic growth.
• Despite the revenue growth, the adjusted earnings per diluted share decreased by 3% to $1.02, reflecting some strain from operational challenges and the dynamic market conditions.

• nCino has posted its financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, delivering performance that exceeded initial forecasts in several key areas, including subscription revenues and non-GAAP operating income.
• The company has observed a notable improvement in the financial services industry in the United States compared to the previous year.
• nCino’s growth in the U.S. has been robust, particularly within its existing customer base which seems keen on leveraging the company’s expanded platform capabilities.

• The Chemours Company faced various challenges in the second quarter of 2024, yet demonstrated resilience and adaptability in managing these issues.
• Key points from the earnings call include the impact of a severe drought on their titanium dioxide production at Altamira, Mexico, which led to unplanned downtime and an $8 million cost for the quarter.
• Despite this, Chemours was proactive in addressing the immediate needs of affected employees and the community while optimizing production to meet customer demands, achieving a 16% increase in volumes compared to the first quarter.

• HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener: Right Stocks Listed in the Wrong Market – Attractive Yield & Rapid Expansion Outside China – Sep 2024  helped us screen out great names.
• JNBY Design Ltd (3306 HK), an apparel retailer trading at 9.2x FY24 with a ~10% yield and a long-term track record of >34% 10 Yr-average ROCEs, is one such name. 
• Even with modest single-digit growth guidance, we see a growing yield and a great cash buffer (20% of the market cap), and dividends are sustainable. 

• PBF Energy’s second quarter 2024 earnings presentation reveals a mixed financial landscape marked by challenges and strategic achievements.
• Despite experiencing weaker-than-expected earnings, the company successfully maintained a robust cash position and further advanced its operational goals.
• The quarter faced unusual market conditions where RIN-adjusted crack spreads saw a significant decrease, contributing to tighter margins across the board.

• Nexstar Media Group’s second quarter of 2024 delivered robust overall performance as the company continued to showcase its ability to navigate challenging market dynamics effectively.
• As discussed during the recent earnings call, Nexstar achieved record total net revenue and distribution revenue, underscoring its strategic success in optimizing revenue streams amid continued industry shifts.
• Particularly noteworthy was the substantial growth in adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow, which highlights disciplined execution across operational facets.

• Boat OEM industry facing drop in demand post high sales period due to Covid
• MasterCraft has strong position in ski/wake category, a niche market
• Despite challenges from tepid retail demand and high inventory levels, MasterCraft could benefit from ski/wake category strength in long term

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• IRDM started 2024 with changes to its reporting metrics and that trend continued when with Q3. 
• When IRDM reported third quarter 2024 results, the Company disclosed it would experience a decline in reported IOT subscriber metrics.   
• The change subscriber count would not impact IRDM’s revenue due to contract pricing. It could create negative headwind in 2025

• TSMC: +18.7% Premium; Trading Range Sustaining at an Elevated Level
• UMC: -1.8% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Spread
• ASE: 0.0% Premium; Good Level to Go Long the Spread

• On October 18, JD denies there is a run on JD Finance.
• Many male users claimed they boycott JD for the invitation of Miss Yang, a talk show celebrity.
• We believe the event will negatively impact JD and benefit Alibaba.

• Sanwa Holdings revised its first-half (1H) forecasts, increasing sales estimates from ¥293 billion to ¥313 billion, and operating profit (OP) from ¥25.6 billion to ¥32 billion
• Essilor’s growing investment in Nikon, with the optical giant increasing its stake from 5.1% to 7.38% in just a few weeks, underscores our bullish view on the name.
• Nihon Kohden recently revised its first-half (1H24) guidance, raising sales expectations by ¥700 million to ¥102.7 billion and operating profit by ¥2 billion to ¥5 billion. 

• Legochem Biosciences (141080 KS) entered into a license agreement with Ono Pharmaceutical for LCB97, a pre-clinical stage ADC targeting solid tumors for an upfront and milestone payment of $700M.
• Legochem is now pursuing high-value package deals, combining platform and product deals or multi-target product deals. The above-mentioned deal with Ono is the first such package deal.
• Legochem’s ADC technology platform is seeing rising demand as number of providers decreased (due to recent M&A deals) while big pharmaceutical companies are rapidly expanding their ADC businesses.   

• CVRx (CVRX US) was up 19% (including after hours) as the AMA accepted CPT Category I codes for Barostim. Codes are to be implemented on January 1, 2026
• With Category I CPT codes CVRX should see the benefits of clinical validation, regulatory de-risking, reimbursement potential, increased market access and significant improvement in revenue potential
• Barostim is the only neuromodulation device for heart failure and resistant hypertension, positioning CVRx as a compelling acquisition target due to its unique technology and strong market potential.

• Alibaba is selling Sun Art, a listed supermarket subsidiary, as Sun Art’s revenue is shrinking.
• Alibaba gained 6 million new retailers on its Taobao Tmall platform year to date.
• In September Tesla’s sales volume increased by 66% YoY and all major Chinese NEV grew strongly.

• With its share price returning to HK$0.68 level, the investment value of Singamas Container Holdings (716 HK) has re-emerged.
• Its competitor, CIMC, has just issued a positive profit alert, indicating an impressive 888.7% and 317.3% growth in reported and recurring earnings, which is positive for Singamas.
• An 11% growth in the global containership fleet in FY24 is also beneficial to the company. Its net cash of HK$1.65bn equals 1.02x its market capitalisation.

• Mazda’s domestic unit volume was up 24% in September, compared to an industrywide total of only 1.1%.
• Meanwhile, Q2 consensus EBIT estimates have come down by 32% since the release of Q1 results.
• But the yield is over 6%, and the Payout ratio is only 17% even on the new estimates.

• On Oct 17th, Kaspi.kz, Kazakhstan’s super-app, signed a stock purchase agreement to acquire a 65.4% stake in Hepsiburada, a leading e-commerce platform in Turkey. 
• The transaction is still subject to regulatory approval; Hepsiburada’s share price in the US increased by ~60% on Friday after the announcement.
• The acquisition makes a lot of strategic sense which would elevate Kaspi.kz to a position to target a combined market of >100 million population (vs. currently 20 million).

• Allegro MicroSystems presented their first fiscal quarter 2025 results, positioning themselves within a competitive and challenging market environment.
• Positive indicators can be discerned from their performance, although there remain areas of concern which reflect broader market conditions and segment-specific issues.
• Starting with the positives, Allegro MicroSystems reported first-quarter sales of $167 million, which was above the midpoint of their guidance.

• Puregold has built an enormous moat in the Philippines around its hypermarket, supermarket, and discount/membership stores, which is evident on its steady growth in sales and profits amid challenging  environment. 
• Puregold has attractive valuations. Puregold is trading at attractive valuations of 2.7x EV/EBITDA, P/E of 8.6x, and P/B of 0.9x, based on 2025 consensus earnings estimates.
• In the next several years, the Philippines is expected to move into the upper middle-income economy which should have a positive impact on the consumption-led categories including supermarkets and hypermarkets.

• Sales per outlet and gross margin per vehicle were supposed to rise in Q3. Instead, both went south, causing management to lower FY guidance about 50%. 
• Evidence from the 1st and 2nd quarters that indicated an immanent turnaround simply vanished in the 3rd quarter. 
• We lower our rating form “Massive Growth at Huge Discount” to “Decent Growth at Reasonable Price, No immanent catalyst.”

• Blackbaud, Inc. reported a strong second quarter in 2024, showing significant improvement in various financial metrics and advancing its strategic initiatives.
• The company, a leading provider of software to power social impact, has focused on product innovation tailored for non-profit organizations while implementing crucial revenue initiatives and maintaining careful attention to cost management and cash flow enhancement.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• Frontdoor, Inc. delivered a robust financial performance for the second quarter of 2024, with notable progress on strategic fronts, despite facing macroeconomic challenges and a tough real estate environment.
• The company reported a revenue increase of 4% reaching $542 million and observed a significant expansion in gross margin, up by 470 basis points to 56%.
• Adjusted EBITDA improved by 31% to $158 million, and free cash flow saw a substantial rise, more than doubling to $91 million.

• Gentex Corporation reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2024, revealing challenges in light vehicle production and sales.
• Net sales for the quarter were $572.9 million, a decrease from $583.5 million in the same period last year.
• The decline is attributed to a 3% drop in light vehicle production in North America, Europe, and Japan/Korea.

• In the September data are clear signs of slowing momentum & price moderation
• Seasonality, NAM de-stocking, anniversary of Red Sea re-routes all contributing
• Without catalysts, we would AVOID holding shares of global container names

• Halozyme’s recent quarterly performance underscored a strong trajectory in its financial and operational fronts.
• The company, which specializes in the ENHANZE drug delivery technology, reported robust second-quarter earnings, with total revenue hitting $231 million, showing a growth that aligns with the company’s full-year expectations of 13% to 22%.
• Notably, royalty revenues increased by 12%, reaching $125 million.

• Braze, a prominent player in customer engagement technology, showcased a robust fiscal second quarter for 2025, demonstrating continued growth and financial improvements.
• The company reported a 26% rise in revenue, reaching $145.5 million, driven by both existing customer expansions and new client acquisitions.
• Notably, non-GAAP gross margin improved by 90 basis points year-over-year to 70.9%, reflecting operational efficiencies.

• 10x Genomics, a leader in single-cell and spatial technologies, presented a mixed financial and operational report for Q2 2024, characterized by modest revenue growth alongside strategic advancements and evident pressures from the external economic environment.
• On the financial front, 10x Genomics reported a revenue increment of 4% year-over-year, reaching $153 million, driven particularly by robust demand for spatial consumables and a sequential increase in single-cell consumables.
• Notably, the company achieved a free cash flow positive status during the quarter.

• Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) surged on a robust results and raised revenue outlook, driven by strength in AI related demand.
• Markets are overlooking the fact that many AI companies and solutions are unnecessary, unsustainable and will lead to blowups and consolidation.
• We make the case for why TSMC is over valued and investors will likely get better entry levels.

• The price of ASML EUV machine is increasing as thruput (wafer / hour) is increasing. 
• TSMC 3nm is fully booked in 2025. Here is the list of clients / chips. 
• SiC and MCU over-investments in China? Very likely. China is limiting SiC investments. 

• TSMC reported Q3 revenue of NT$759.69 billion, marking a 39% year-over-year increase, surpassing the guidance range of NT$724-750 billion, driven by strong AI demand.
• The company’s net income reached NT$325.3 billion, up 54% from last year and exceeding LSEG’s estimate of NT$300.2 billion, reflecting strong operational performance.
• TSMC’s gross margin improved to 57.8%, an increase of 4.6% from Q2, highlighting enhanced profitability from advanced chip production amid growing AI applications.

• Hua-Where? Hua-Who? Report: Apple’s iPhone 16 Pro & Pro Max Sales Surge 44% in China; A Strong Start Amidst Competition
• Samsung Under Siege: Facing Major Challenges Across Verticals as TSMC Tightens Foundry Grip
• TSMC 3Q24: Guidance Remains Strong; Explains Why AI Demand Not Overhyped; Stay Long… TSMC is Working with All AI Innovators

• Where there are many other areas of interest in Asia, globally, the figures just out for Bangkok Bank are incredible to us, not in a positive way.
• The bank has seen its NPLs rise from THB71bn to THB85bn to THB92bn from 4Q23 to 2Q24 to 3Q24, putting YTD growth at 29%
• The bank has more than 1/4 of its loans in manufacturing & commercial where loan balances are down 4.0% YTD and down 4.3% QoQ

• ATE Energy is leading green energy and marine projects in the Philippines to support sustainability efforts and protect the environment. Taiwan is seeking to import green energy from the Philippines to meet its goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
• The US faces challenges in expanding nuclear power as part of its efforts to reach net-zero emissions targets. Japan and Taiwan are teaming up to produce the Lean3 EV, promising a compact design and high efficiency for urban areas.
• The new iPad mini features advanced Apple Intelligence technology with four major upgrades for top-tier performance and functionality. Joo-Sun Choi is returning to Samsung’s DS division after a successful term as SDC president. Taiwan is focusing on low-carbon power to drive industrial growth, while ESL adoption is on the rise with retailers like Simple Mart Taiwan and Walmart leading the way in a retail revolution for lower prices.

• TEGNA Inc. reported their Q2 2024 financial results, reflecting a mix of challenges and opportunities which present a balanced view for potential investors.
• In this earnings review, a detailed assessment of the company’s performance and strategic initiatives provides insights into its emerging trends and operational focus.
• During the quarter, TEGNA noted a decline in total company revenue compared to the previous year, which primarily stemmed from decreases in subscriber counts and national advertising revenues.

• In a notable development, Dana Incorporated (NYSE:DAN) has recently emerged as a potential acquisition target, sparking rumors across Wall Street.
• The company’s stock rose by 0.5%, following reports of takeover interest as mentioned in a Betaville “uncooked” alert.
• The timing of this speculation coincides with a strong earnings performance for Q2 2024, where Dana posted $2.7 billion in sales and a solid $244 million in adjusted EBITDA.

• In the latest earnings discussion of Five9, Chairman and CEO Mike Burkland relayed a mixed set of results, presenting a blend of successes and challenges.
• The company achieved an annual revenue run rate exceeding $1 billion, primarily driven by a 21% year-over-year growth in LTM Enterprise subscription revenue.
• Alongside, the adjusted EBITDA margin improved sequentially to 17% of revenue, contributing robustly to a strong LTM operating cash flow of $126 million, which is 13% of revenue.

• Accenture recently reported its fourth quarter result for fiscal 2024, showcasing a mixture of strengths and setbacks.
• As a multinational professional services company known for its capabilities in digital, cloud, and security, Accenture’s continued focus on embracing technological transformations, particularly Generative AI (GenAI), and adapting to market demands are pivotal points observed from the earnings report.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• Q424 revenue forecast of $26.5 billion, up 13% QoQ and the highest Q3 to Q4 revenue jump since Q4 2017
• Demand for AI acceleration is real and just beginning. According to a key customer of theirs, “demand right now is just insane”
• Overseas fabs progressing well with Arizona yielding well and on track for high volume production in early 2025

• TSMC Delivers Strong 3Q24 Revenue and Margin Growth; Margin Guidance Climbs
• Management Says Believes AI Demand is Not Hyped… Companies Extracting ROIs
• TSMC – Structural Long Rating Maintained; NT$1,515 Price Target Suggests 46% Upside

• Main positive surprise in 3Q24 is a sharp margins expansion, reflecting Utilization increase. OP 9% above Consensus.
• Main positive surprise in 4Q24 guidance: high QoQ revenue growth at 13%, which suggests further Utilization increase and TSMC could beat its margins guidance again.  
• Net Income growth is accelerating in 2H24 to ~55% YoY. The stock is not that expensive, we estimate trading at 17.2x 2025 and 13.8x 2026 EPS.

• 4Q24 Guidance: Sales will be US$26.1-26.9bn, up 13%; GM outlook will be 57-59%; and OPM outlook is 46.5-48.5%
• AI revenue contribution will triple and reach mid-teens sales contribution this year. Almost every AI innovator cooperates with TSMC.
• APT will grow above the corporate average in the next five years.GM is approaching the corporate average, but it’s not the same currently.

• Pilbara Minerals announced the establishment of a $1 billion debt facility with a banking syndicate.
• The company plans to use the facility to repay existing concessional debt and potentially make acquisitions.
• The new facility offers more flexibility in terms of leverage ratios compared to existing debt agreements.

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• CoWoS packaging meets global demand for advanced technology, with efficient design for integration.
• Taiwan reveals breakthrough in tiny quantum computer technology, impacting the tech industry.
• LGES secures multi-billion deal with Mercedes-Benz for EV batteries, boosting electric vehicle industry.

• In FY02/24, revenue was JPY48.8bn (+27.8% YoY), operating profit was JPY4.6bn (+653.2% YoY), recurring profit was JPY4.8bn (+92.5% YoY), and net income was JPY3.2bn (+112.8% YoY).
• The company attributed YoY revenue growth to the following factors.
• First, customer count continued to grow after the March 2023 price hike.

• Shell expects Q3 refining margins to drop 28.6% QoQ to USD 5.5/bbl, driven by a sharp decline in oil prices. However, improved chemical margins are anticipated to offer some relief.
• Between 2023 and 2025, Shell plans to invest USD 10 billion to USD 15 billion in low-carbon solutions globally, with a strategic emphasis on LNG.
• Shell projects LNG to account for 26% of energy sales by 2030, up from 22% in 2023, while oil products will decrease from 48% to 39%.

• The company required a $180 billion bailout from the US government during the financial crisis, but has since fully repaid it with interest.
• Under Peter Zafino’s leadership, AIG has refocused its underwriting efforts, returning to profitability and divesting non-core businesses.
• AIG has undergone a remarkable turnaround post-financial crisis, focusing on specialty insurance for top quartile industry returns

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• TotalEnergies’ revenue is expected to fall 9.1% QoQ and 17.8% YoY in Q3, while its EPS is expected to rise 6.6% QoQ but fall 19.8% YoY. 
• TotalEnergies anticipates a decline in downstream profitability due to a 65.7% QoQ drop in European refining margins, though increased gas prices are expected to partially offset lower oil prices.
• TotalEnergies raised its annual oil and gas output growth forecast to 3% through 2030. Targets natural gas to comprise 50% of its total sales mix by 2030.

For our next Corporate Webinar, we are glad to welcome UMP Healthcare’s Chief Financial Officer and Company Secretary, Patrick Cheung. 

In the upcoming webinar, Patrick will share a short company presentation after which, he will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Sameer Taneja. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 23 October 2024, 15:00 SGT/HKT.

About UMP Healthcare

• ASML reported revenues of €7.5 billion, +19% QoQ and +11.9% YoY. This was €200 million above the high end of the guided range. Q424 guided to €9 billion
• Logic Fab delays and a collapse in sales to China caused ASML to reduce their 2025 forecast to the low end of the €30 -€40 billion guided in November 2022
• Despite these challenges, ASML’s latest forecast still implies 16% YoY growth in 2025

• BYD’s deliveries growth accelerated to 36% YoY in Aug and 46% YoY Sep.
• The whole domestic NEV (New Energy vehicle) market has been accelerating for for the entire third quarter.
• We believe the EU and the US market are not concerns, as both domestic and other emerging markets are promising.

• Comments focus on low bookings in 3Q24. The reset is much larger than this. ASML has capacity for 90 low-NA EUV machines in 2025-26. Demand in 2025 is below 50.
• Bullish 2025-28 guidance (revenue / capacity) provided by ASML end of 2022 is finally resetting. 2025 Consensus Net Income forecast could reset by ~20%, 2026 by ~30%.
• ASML finally factors in 1) weak end demand in all segments except for AI 2) Fab push out or cancellation  3) China accelerated Capex and over capacity are slowing.

• Dr. Wu Skincare is a leading skincare brand from developed Asia known for its skin vitamins and strong financial performance
• Despite not being cheap from a tangible NAV perspective, the brand is considered undervalued with high margins, ROE, and cash returns to shareholders
• Dr. Wu, structured as a pure marketing company with no manufacturing, has top market share in key sales channels in Taiwan and continues to grow and maintain a 5% dividend yield

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• We expect King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT)‘s 4Q24 outlook to be a seasonal uptrend with a slight increase quarter-over-quarter.
• NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will become the top client at KYEC, and Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) is expected to become the second-largest client in the outlook for 2025.  
• The focus will primarily be on currently available sources, particularly KYEC for production.  

• Hyundai is competing against the US and China in the global autonomous vehicle market, trying to keep up with the latest technological developments.
• Tesla’s new Robotaxi and self-driving bus have been unveiled, but doubts linger about whether they will be commercially successful in the long run.
• TsangYow is planning for growth as Asian markets recover, with a Malaysian plant set to launch in 2027. HK startups are utilizing AI for growth in education and tourism sectors.

• Masimo Corporation’s second quarter of 2024 earnings conference call came with updates that carry implications of both strength and ongoing challenges.
• The company, primarily known for its healthcare technologies, showed a robust performance in its healthcare segment, with a noticeable 23% year-on-year growth in healthcare revenues, totaling $344 million for the quarter.
• This growth is supported by a 29% increase in consumables and service revenue, reflecting strong demand for Masimo sensors, driven by hospital conversions and normalization of installations.

• At a 51 NPE, Daiichi Sankyo was priced for perfection.
• We do like their focus on the high growth oncology segment, however, we felt that the valuation left no room for error.
• Post the two disappointing trial announcements, at a 39 NPE, the valuation is become more palatable and getting closer to our mid-thirties target entry point.

• GENOVA (9341 JP) recorded better-than-expected sales and operating profit in Q1FY25, driven by continued strong demand. With the progress achieved in Q1FY25, the company is expected to beat H1FY25 guidance.
• Medical Platform business has been experiencing steady growth in both the number of articles and page views, leading to creation of multiple contracts and improve the platform’s unit contract price.  
• The company had 14K customers for the Medical Platform Business and the Smart Clinic Business in Q1FY25, a mere 8% of its estimated potential customer base of 173K clinics.

• TSMC: +15.6% Premium; Relatively Aggressive Trade is to Long Premium
• ASE: -3.0% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Premium
• CHT: -2.8% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Premium

• Mongolian Mining (975 HK) released its quarterly production update. While production remained flat QoQ, destocking led to 16.3% YoY sales growth in coal. 
• The resources at the gold mine (476,000 oz) did not change, but construction of the plant was 55% complete compared to 30% a quarter ago in June. 
• Trading at 5.6 PE, with opportunities for growth and future dividend payments due to repayment of the perpetual, this is an exciting idea to explore. 

• Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK) achieved 75% YoY and 31% QoQ revenue growth in 4QFY24, driven by higher volume and relatively stable selling price, with net loss narrowing down further.
• Considering the current demand and supply condition, Top Glove expects the ASP to further increase. The company aims to recover its EBITDA margin to pre-pandemic levels of 15% by FY26.
• Import alert and expected tariff increase on Chinese manufacturers, may help shift the focus from China to Malaysia, as the preferred sourcing destination, thereby helping Top Glove.

• Just as they did before, Japanese convenience stores are taking a US idea and making it Japanese, in this case retail media, which looks set to be huge in Japan.
• Seven & I believes it will be a ¥3 trillion business and Familymart, which is leading in this new profit machine, expects ¥5 billion in media income in 3 years.
• The options for highly personalised targeting and behavioural analysis will transform brand advertising and marketing – but even more the bottom line of convenience stores.

• Smartphones units sold in 3Q24 increased by +4% YoY. That’s a slowdown from +7% YoY in 1H24.
• Growth comes from low-price Emerging Markets demand. But the Premium segment sees increasing ASP with AI-enabled phones.  
• Hence for Mediatek and Qualcomm, the investment thesis rests on increasing ASP as AI is propagating – not volume growth. MTK had a nice rally, time to take a breather. 

• In this Insight, we highlight industry and company-specific developments based on the annual reports of various companies related to the apparel industry.
• The industry has encountered challenges, primarily due to a slowdown in demand and rising inflation. Most companies are now hoping for a turnaround.
• Companies in Focus Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd (ABFRL IN), Arvind Fashions (ARVINDFA IN), Vedant Fashions (MANYAVAR IN), Go Fashion India (GOCOLORS IN) and Credo Brands Marketing (CREDO IN).  

• In Q3, Money Forward demonstrated continued strong performance, with consolidated net sales posting 31% growth year-on-year to ¥9.81 billion
• EBITDA for the cumulative nine months stands at ¥1.48 billion, comfortably within the company’s full year guidance range of ¥1-3 billion.
• We now see a very modest 2% upside to our target price of ¥6,440, based on an 8x forward revenue multiple. 

• China Everbright Environment (257 HK) will benefit immensely from the lower debt burden of local governments as the central government rolls out more fiscal support measures.
• We anticipate an acceleration in receivable collection to improve its cash flow while the new projects pipeline may speed up. Its FCF has positively turned around in 1H24.
• Despite recent outperformance, it remains a laggard since 2022. Still, it trades on an undemanding 5.5x PER and an appealing 6.3% yield on a higher dividend payout. 

• Taiwan’s defense sector offers competitive advantage with better, faster, and cheaper solutions for securing US contracts.
• Growing tech sector demands secure, local storage solutions due to high energy usage.
• Google boosts investments in Asia-Pacific countries to expand its presence and tap into growing markets in the region.

• LSB currently operates three downstream integrated ammonia production facilities.
• Behrman said key competitive advantages include a cost structure underpinned by access to low-cost US natural gas feedstock, strategic proximity with plants located in three states (OK, AK, and AL), and good logistics with access to waterways, truck, and rail.
• About half of LSB’s output is geared toward agricultural applications (fertilizers), while the remaining is geared toward various industrial applications.