Category

Equity Bottom-Up

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Shiseido (4911 JP):  This Fallen Angel Is Fixable and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Shiseido (4911 JP):  This Fallen Angel Is Fixable
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Sales Ahead; Display Driver Growth Reversal; AI Names Keep Flying
  • Water Oasis 1161 HK: Gone Ex-Dividend, Trading at 7.5x PE FY24 and an 11% Dividend Yield
  • Intel’s UMC Partnership Is A Big Deal. For UMC.
  • State Bank of India (SBIN) – 3Q24 Update: Short-Term Pressure Is an Opportunity to Accumulate
  • Largest Display Driver Maker in the World’s Guidance Implies Growth Reversal Coming in Feb & March
  • Novatek (3034.TT): It’s the Low Season in 1Q24F; AI Is Gradually Added to Different Applications.
  • GOL – Ramifications of GOL’s Chapter 11 Filing
  • Rent.com.au Ltd – Strong Across the Board Growth in Revenue in Q2
  • Singapore’s Most Defensive High ROE & Low P/E Stocks Over Past Year


Shiseido (4911 JP):  This Fallen Angel Is Fixable

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Shiseido Company (4911 JP) relies heavily on Japan and China, each making up over one quarter of sales. 
  • The long thesis is simple – I expect improvement in both regions in the near future, and the valuation is very attractive.
  • Blackstone just announced a potential bid for L’Occitane (973 HK), which I have written extensively about.  We could potentially see a pickup in interest in the sector.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Sales Ahead; Display Driver Growth Reversal; AI Names Keep Flying

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Latest Performance: Taiwan AI Names Keep Flying; ASE & Mediatek Lose Steam After Reporting
  • Largest Display Driver Maker in the World’s Guidance Implies Growth Reversal Coming in Feb & March
  • TSMC and Samsung Will Keep Their Most Advanced Chipmaking at Home

Water Oasis 1161 HK: Gone Ex-Dividend, Trading at 7.5x PE FY24 and an 11% Dividend Yield

By Sameer Taneja

  • Water Oasis (1161 HK) just went ex-dividend on 6th Feb and is now trading at a 7.5x PE FY24e and a 10.7% dividend yield on trailing FY23 earnings.  
  • The company has refurbished its flagship stores, and we believe it can perform 8-9% better year over year for FY24 than FY23.
  • The company also has 230 mn HKD net cash (after netting dividends paid out), representing     26% of market capitalization.

Intel’s UMC Partnership Is A Big Deal. For UMC.

By William Keating

  • UMC’s Q423 results in line with expectations. Q124 guidance, down 2-3% QoQ, demonstrates ongoing headwinds for foundry
  • Intel, UMC foundry partnership helps the latter overcome their 14nm issues while giving them bargain basement access to US manufacturing capacity 
  • If Intel could have developed and deployed the proposed 12nm specialty process on their own, they would have….

State Bank of India (SBIN) – 3Q24 Update: Short-Term Pressure Is an Opportunity to Accumulate

By Raj Saya, CA, CFA

  • State Bank Of India (SBIN IN) has reported its 3Q24 (Dec-23) results with a one-off pension and wages revision charge which impacts the short-term earnings profile.
  • Medium-Term ROE Forecast Intact (16% to 18%) with management confident of even touching 20% in next couple of years; loan growth forecast of 14% to 16% for FY25e-FY26e.
  • We reiterate our view: P/BV is cheap at 1.3x FY25e. SBIN has the potential to re-rate to P/BV of ~1.6x FY25e in the near term (~40% upside). Opportunity to ADD.

Largest Display Driver Maker in the World’s Guidance Implies Growth Reversal Coming in Feb & March

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Novatek reported over 20% YoY growth for 4Q23 and slightly beat expectations but the latest guidance implies growth to reverse to a sales contraction in the latter part of 1Q24E.
  • Gross and operating margins are guided to contract; nevertheless, inventory dropped to one of the lowest levels since COVID and is expected to remain healthy.
  • Novatek’s latest results appear to signal that while inventory levels are healthy, the demand growth rebound for display drivers that started in June 2023E could lose steam in 1Q24E.

Novatek (3034.TT): It’s the Low Season in 1Q24F; AI Is Gradually Added to Different Applications.

By Patrick Liao

  • 4Q23 surpassed the guidance for revenue, GM, and OPM. 4Q23 EPS reached NT$8.76, compared to NT$10.46 in 3Q23 and NT$6.64 in 4Q22.
  • 1Q24F is typically the traditional low season for consumer electronics, and there are fewer working days during the Lunar New Year.
  • It is expected that the dividend payout ratio this year will be similar to previous years, which has been higher than 80% in the past few years.

GOL – Ramifications of GOL’s Chapter 11 Filing

By Neil Glynn

  • GOL recently filed for CH11 bankruptcy protection as it was due to run out of readily available cash in mid-February. We assess the ramifications.
  • We highlight that GOL may need to reduce aircraft ownership/financing costs by a third to achieve PBT margins of 5%+; difficult in a strong aircraft leasing market.
  • We see the risk GOL loses scale. However, long-term, an increasingly competitive GOL is good for its parent Abra Group, and sister company Avianca.

Rent.com.au Ltd – Strong Across the Board Growth in Revenue in Q2

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Rent.com.au Limited (ASX:RNT) is a purpose-led company seeking to empower home renters through its technology platform and a growing number of aligned transactional services.
  • The company has reported a 33% year-on-year increase in Q2 FY24 revenue to $0.808m, in what is seasonally the weakest quarter for the group.
  • Search portal revenue grew 11% on the previous corresponding period (pcp) but, not unexpectedly, dropped 7% on Q1 due to seasonal factors. 

Singapore’s Most Defensive High ROE & Low P/E Stocks Over Past Year

By Geoff Howie

  • Just over 40 Singapore-listed stocks that posted price gains over the past year, maintain single-digit P/E ratios and double-digit ROEs.
  • Aside from Singapore Airlines, the most traded stocks of the cohort over the past 5 weeks were Geo Energy Res, Golden Agri, Food Empire, TJ DaRenTang, Valuetronics, Marco Polo Marine, Ley Choon, Bumitama Agri and Stamford Land.
  • Among these stocks, Golden Agri, Food Empire, TJ DaRenTang, Bumitama Agri are currently trading below their Consensus Estimate Target Prices.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical (600436.CH) 2023 Results – Get Ready for More Downside Ahead and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical (600436.CH) 2023 Results – Get Ready for More Downside Ahead


Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical (600436.CH) 2023 Results – Get Ready for More Downside Ahead

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Pientzehuang’s 2023 results were well below expectations. The performance in 23Q4 was terrible. 2024 performance would continue to be under pressure, without any reversal signals to be seen.
  • In the process of China’s de-financialization, growth potential of assets with strong financial attributes would weaken.Pientzehuang’s ability to raise prices won’t be as strong as rigid-demands such as telecommunications tariffs.
  • Pientzehuang’s stock price performance doesn’t follow traditional TCM companies.It’s not surprising if Pientzehuang’s valuation drops to PE of 15x or even lower. We recommend investors not to rush to bottom-fish.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volumes Remain Firm | Domestic Pricing Worsens (January 2024) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volumes Remain Firm | Domestic Pricing Worsens (January 2024)


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volumes Remain Firm | Domestic Pricing Worsens (January 2024)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • December: strong volume growth, but worsening price declines for STO, Yunda
  • Recent trends in X-border parcel volume growth & pricing moderated in December
  • In 2024, look for SF to continue its outpeformance; STO, Yunda should still lag

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rate Momentum +ive | Throughput Up and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rate Momentum +ive | Throughput Up, Too | (January 2024)


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rate Momentum +ive | Throughput Up, Too | (January 2024)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • December was best reading from our momentum tracker since November 2022
  • Improvement driven by rising spot rates, new fees, and stronger volume growth
  • Even before Red Sea / Suez capacity squeeze, conditions were bottoming

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: [Kuaishou (1024 HK and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • [Kuaishou (1024 HK, BUY, TP HK$79) TP Change]: Robust Organic Traffic Supports Robust Growth


[Kuaishou (1024 HK, BUY, TP HK$79) TP Change]: Robust Organic Traffic Supports Robust Growth

By Ying Pan

  • We expect Kuaishou to report C4Q23 revenue, IFRS op. profit and IFRS net income in-line, 34% and 29% vs. consensus, thanks to margin improvements;
  • Playlet continued to generate significant organic traffic, leading to decreasing sales marketing cost and growth in advertising inventories. We further expect AI to drive playlet market expansions;
  • E-Commerce GMV growth was robust. Kuaishou will likely increase take rate in the future. We maintain BUY and raise TP to HK$79, implying an 17x PE.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: China Consumption Weekly: HSI and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • China Consumption Weekly: HSI, BYD, Trip.com, Kuaishou, Baidu
  • Japanese Laggard Opportunity #1: Kato Sangyo (9869 JP)
  • Temu and AliExpress Taking Away Meaningful Market Share from Coupang in Korea
  • Travelsky (696): Stay Away for Now
  • Opportunities in the Hong Kong Market
  • Lendlease Global Commercial REIT (LREIT SP) – Growing Through a Sustainable Global Lens
  • [Week 17] Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Edition | HDFCB’s Core Concerns
  • STO & Yunda May Report Operating Losses in Q423, Hampering Their Ability to Invest & Grow in ’24
  • Sovereign Metals Limited (SVM) – Monday, Oct 23, 2023
  • Fortescue Metals (FMG AU): 8% Yield At Spot Price With Risks, Wait For Better Entry Point


China Consumption Weekly: HSI, BYD, Trip.com, Kuaishou, Baidu

By Ming Lu

  • We believe Hang Seng Index’s tumble was due to a comment in a governmental newspaper.
  • BYD announced that it will sell three models of new energy vehicles in Indonesia.
  • Trip.com began to sell tickets of scenic locations via the Kuaishou app.

Japanese Laggard Opportunity #1: Kato Sangyo (9869 JP)

By Mohshin Aziz

  • We identified Kato Sangyo (9869 JP) (Kato) as the most attractive Japanese laggard opportunity due to its net cash balance sheet, undemanding PER, and attractive PEG and P/FCF ratios  
  • Management guides for 25% EPS growth in FY24 with only 15% net profit growth, implying a massive share buyback of ~JPY9 billion (5.4% shares in issue) with subsequent cancellation       
  • The combination of impending share buybacks, cancellation of existing treasury shares, and dividends equates to 10% shareholder returns in FY24   

Temu and AliExpress Taking Away Meaningful Market Share from Coupang in Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss how Temu and AliExpress have been taking away meaningful market share away from Coupang (CPNG US) in Korea in the past year. 
  • Temu’s MAU skyrocketed in the past year in Korea. Temu’s MAU surged from zero in January 2023 to 3.28 million as of December 2023.
  • One could argue that Coupang’s valuations are overvalued relative to its Chinese competitors such as PDD Holdings (PDD US).

Travelsky (696): Stay Away for Now

By Henry Soediarko

  • Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK) has been the predictable play for a rebound in domestic tourism in China.
  • 1H23 result did not show anything that should alert investors to the changes in business practices.
  • The recent profit warning disclosure has alerted investors that there is something else beyond the usual.

Opportunities in the Hong Kong Market

By Rikki Malik

  • A capitulation-type event for the Hong Kong market is ongoing.
  • High-Dividend stocks will provide a safer return regardless of broader market moves.
  • A false breakdown below Oct 2022 support will provide a signal for higher-beta exposure.

Lendlease Global Commercial REIT (LREIT SP) – Growing Through a Sustainable Global Lens

By Angus Mackintosh

  • A Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Lendlease Global: Sustainable Returns Through High-Quality Assets revealed a global commercial REIT with high-quality retail and office properties in Singapore and Italy.
  • LREIT saw rental reversions of +16.3% YoY in its 1Q2024 with a portfolio committed occupancy of 99.9% and a weighted average lease expiry of 8.0 years by NLA.
  • Management remains optimistic about the coming year with a strong capital position, a high level of sustainably linked finance, a low cost of debt, and an eye on potential acquisitions.

[Week 17] Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Edition | HDFCB’s Core Concerns

By Pranav Bhavsar


STO & Yunda May Report Operating Losses in Q423, Hampering Their Ability to Invest & Grow in ’24

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Plummeting ASPs likely pushed STO and Yunda OpInc margins below 0% in Q423
  • The companies’ operating cash flow may be insufficient to fund needed capex
  • Reduced investment could lead to slower growth, consolidation pressure in ’24

Sovereign Metals Limited (SVM) – Monday, Oct 23, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • Apple’s focus on carbon-neutral products and use of titanium in iPhone 15 Pro is driving interest in titanium resources.
  • Sovereign Metals’ discovery of the world’s largest undeveloped natural rutile deposit has attracted the attention of Rio Tinto, which recently became the largest shareholder in the company.
  • Titanium is considered a critical material due to supply shortages and China-controlled supply chains, with its use in Apple products highlighting its growing importance. Investment in Sovereign Metals offers an interesting opportunity, especially given the lack of upcoming funding requirements and a discount to Rio Tinto’s entry price.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Fortescue Metals (FMG AU): 8% Yield At Spot Price With Risks, Wait For Better Entry Point

By Sameer Taneja

  • In the world of 8-10% dividend-yielding commodities, Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) almost makes the cut. We would wait for a better entry point here despite iron ore strength.
  • We are also mindful of the risks associated with capex in the green energy space to achieve zero emissions and ramp costs with the recent production increase.
  • We believe numbers are at par, trading at 9.6x PE on the current spot price (130 USD/ton) with a 7% dividend yield ( assuming a 65% payout ratio). 

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: HDFC Bank: An Update and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • HDFC Bank: An Update
  • Dickson Concept (113 HK) Update: Trading at 40% Discount to NCAV, 8% Dividend Yield
  • State Gas – Final Construction Stage with Commissioning Imminent
  • The Big Blend
  • Lonking (3339 HK): A Yield Play?
  • Memory Monitor: Microsoft Copilot Will Supercharge Demand for DRAM; SK Hynix, Nanya Tech, Micron
  • Sam Goi adds to PSC, JB Foods and GSH stakes
  • REIT Watch – 26 S-Reits confirm schedule for upcoming earnings season
  • Gushengtang (2273.HK) – Some New Business Updates and Positive Performance Forecasts


HDFC Bank: An Update

By Value Punks

  • HDFC Bank reported earnings last week. The next day the stock fell 8% followed by another 4% the day after.
  • HDFC Bank is one of India’s bluest blue chip stocks with a reputation for being a high quality compounder.
  • What happened and where do we go from here? First, some lessons from another life.

Dickson Concept (113 HK) Update: Trading at 40% Discount to NCAV, 8% Dividend Yield

By Sameer Taneja

  • Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK) reported the best result in its last six semi-annuals in H1 FY24, with profits rising 42% YoY. 
  • Net cash on the balance sheet was 9.6 HKD/share (vs. share price of 4.54 HKD/share). Gross cash was over 12 HKD/share. 
  • The company increased its interim dividend by 25% to 10 cents for the first time after four years (the expected full-year dividend is 37-40 cents).

State Gas – Final Construction Stage with Commissioning Imminent

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • State Gas Limited (ASX:GAS) is a junior energy producer and explorer with assets concentrated in the Bowen Basin, Queensland.
  • The Rolleston West CNG Project in the Bowen Basin is now in the final stage with mechanical completion and tie-in of the Rougemont-2/3 well anticipated within the next week to be followed by pre-commissioning activities.
  • Importantly, first production and shipments are tantalisingly close and whilst the rate will initially be modest, up to 0.75TJd, the project has intrinsic growth potential (up to 1.7TJd) which could fund modest appraisal and evaluation works, particularly converting contingent gas to bankable reserves.

The Big Blend

By subSPAC

  • The previous week was packed with deals, IPOs, and other SPAC-related events.
  • Four new deals were announced, including SPACs taking a conglomerate, an eVTOL company, and Korean and Chinese Biotech firms public.
  • Also, a new SPAC priced its IPO, and SPAC rules could come under the microscope in the week ahead when the SEC meets. 

Lonking (3339 HK): A Yield Play?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • While the 2H23 result of Lonking Holdings (3339 HK) may disappoint due to a plunge in sales volume, it is a yield play given the high historical payout ratio.
  • Assuming a DPS of HK$0.10 for FY23-25 as in FY22, yielding 8.3%, the total dividend will amount to Rmb1.2bn. This only equals 22% of its net cash (including short-term investments).
  • Its controlling shareholders bought 7.3m shares since 27 Dec, raising the stake by 0.13pp to 56.2%, demonstrating their positive view on the share’s value and long-term outlook. 

Memory Monitor: Microsoft Copilot Will Supercharge Demand for DRAM; SK Hynix, Nanya Tech, Micron

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • MSFT’s new AI features for Windows will need computers with at least 16GB of DRAM to run effectively. MSFT is asking manufacturers for this as a minimum for AI models.
  • MSFT announced Copilot Pro for individuals and small businesses last week. The desire to use generative AI and the minimum required DRAM will drive accelerated PC upgrades.
  • We note relative strength in 16GB DRAM prices; In Memory space, we continue to see relative value in SK Hynix, however, Nanya has the opportunity to Outperform in Taiwan.

Sam Goi adds to PSC, JB Foods and GSH stakes

By Geoff Howie

  • Sam Goi adds to PSC, JB Foods and GSH stakes CapitaLand Investment again led the buyback consideration tally, buying back 13,197,700 shares at an average price of S$2.98 per share over the five sessions.
  • The principal activities of GSH corporation are its property development business, hospitality business, in addition to its frozen food trading business.

REIT Watch – 26 S-Reits confirm schedule for upcoming earnings season

By Geoff Howie

  • Schedule of S-Reits earnings or business update Lendlease Global Commercial REIT 1-Feb Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT) will kick off the current financial reporting season for S-Reits with the release of its first quarter (ended Dec 31, 2023) business update after the close of trading on Jan 22, 2024.

Gushengtang (2273.HK) – Some New Business Updates and Positive Performance Forecasts

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • 23Q3 revenue would increase by 15% QoQ/over 40% YoY. 23Q4 revenue would increase 8-10% QoQ/over 45% YoY. 2023 full-year revenue growth would be 42-43%.Profit growth is more optimistic than revenue.
  • In the first week of January 2024, YoY high growth momentum continued from December 2023, without any impact of consumption downgrades so far.In 2024, Gushengtang would accelerate pace of M&A.
  • Gushengtang’s business model has been successfully validated. Different from Aier, Gushengtang is still in a period of rapid expansion. The Company remains our top pick in China’s medical service sector.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Asian Dividend Gems: Minsheng Education and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Asian Dividend Gems: Minsheng Education
  • IBJ (6071) – Aiming to Solidify Its Dominant Market Position
  • Tenable Holdings: Initiation of Coverage – Unlock the Secrets Behind Tenable’s High Recurring Revenue and Sky-High Margins! – Major Drivers
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.19) – Bottom Fish A-Share?/“Style” of FDA/Pharma’s Key Benchmark/3320HK
  • Allegro MicroSystems: Initiation of Coverage – How Its Strategic Focus is Electrifying the Future of Transportation – Major Drivers
  • Kyndryl Holdings: Initiation of Coverage – How Kyndryl Consult Is Shaping a New Era of Revenue Generation – Major Drivers
  • Sensata Technologies: Initiation of Coverage – The 4 Biggest Drivers Taking The Company Forward! – Financial Forecasts
  • Teradata Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Unleashing Cloud Potential! Why Its Cloud-Based Platform Is the Talk of the Tech World – Major Drivers
  • Varonis Systems: Initiation of Coverage – Can It Come Out A Winner From The SaaS Transition? – Major Drivers
  • Workiva Inc: Initiation of Coverage – Unveiling Their Winning Strategy in Turbulent Geopolitical and Economic Times – Major Drivers


Asian Dividend Gems: Minsheng Education

By Douglas Kim

  • Minsheng Education (1569 HK) is a highly undervalued Chinese education stock with high dividend yields. Market cap of the company has declined by nearly 90% from Jun 2018 to today. 
  • Minsheng Education’s dividend yield averaged 5.1% from 2020 to 2022. Estimated dividend yield is 14.6% in 2023.   
  • Minsheng Education mainly provides educational services in China. The company is one of the leaders of China’s private higher education industry.

IBJ (6071) – Aiming to Solidify Its Dominant Market Position

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Market leader positioning to consolidate – IBJ is a marriage consultancy service with strong brand equity, offering high-quality services delivered by human professionals.
  • With an industry-leading membership base, affiliated marriage consulting firms within the IBJ network harness the economies of scale through the platform, ensuring a cost-effective approach to service delivery.
  • It has a strong track record of sustainable free cash flow generation. 

Tenable Holdings: Initiation of Coverage – Unlock the Secrets Behind Tenable’s High Recurring Revenue and Sky-High Margins! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on cyber exposure solutions provider, Tenable Networks.
  • The company’ Q3 2023 earnings highlighted steady financial performance, strong contributions from its platform products like Tenable One, and overall business growth, particularly in the public sector.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.19) – Bottom Fish A-Share?/“Style” of FDA/Pharma’s Key Benchmark/3320HK

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • As more and more China’s drugs successfully obtained FDA approval, we analyzed the “style” of the US FDA, aiming to help investors understand the prospects of domestic companies’ internationalization strategies.
  • For mature pharmaceutical companies, we analyzed the benchmarks for some key financial indicators in terms of both revenue and cost. On these basis, companies’ profit performance would be decent. 
  • As a top pharmaceutical SOE, China Resources Pharmaceutical (CRP) wouldn’t go bankrupt.This is the bottom line.Together with stable dividends, CRP is a worthwhile investment target to hold in bear market.

Allegro MicroSystems: Initiation of Coverage – How Its Strategic Focus is Electrifying the Future of Transportation – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on sensor technology player, Allegro MicroSystems.
  • Sales in these strategic growth areas made up 56% of total sales, indicating a successful strategy execution focused on these specific sectors.
  • The company’s automotive revenues grew 31% year-over-year, with the electrification of vehicles and Advanced Driver Assistance Systems adoption being the main growth drivers.

Kyndryl Holdings: Initiation of Coverage – How Kyndryl Consult Is Shaping a New Era of Revenue Generation – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on IT services company, Kyndryl.
  • This increase has been attributed to successful execution of its operations, demonstrating their ability to drive substantial profit growth in the company.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

Sensata Technologies: Initiation of Coverage – The 4 Biggest Drivers Taking The Company Forward! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on sensor-based technology solutions provider, Sensata Technologies.
  • The dip in revenue was cited due to factors like market outgrowth slowing over the last 12 months and unfavorable movements in foreign currency.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

Teradata Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Unleashing Cloud Potential! Why Its Cloud-Based Platform Is the Talk of the Tech World – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on hybrid cloud analytics software provider, Teradata Corporation.
  • The company’s 2023 Q3 earnings were recently reported and the leading cloud analytics and data platform company had delivered another strong quarter and remained confident it would achieve its 2023 forecast.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

Varonis Systems: Initiation of Coverage – Can It Come Out A Winner From The SaaS Transition? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Varonis Systems, a company specializing in data security and analytics.
  • The company is navigating a pivotal shift in its business model, transitioning from traditional software offerings to a Software as a Service (SaaS) model.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

Workiva Inc: Initiation of Coverage – Unveiling Their Winning Strategy in Turbulent Geopolitical and Economic Times – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Workiva Inc., a leading provider of solutions for enterprise productivity.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: TSMC. Roaring Into Year Of The Dragon and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • TSMC. Roaring Into Year Of The Dragon
  • Dai-Ichi Life Holdings – 4 Quarters Strongly Rising Profit, ROE: 3% to 12%, A Profit Upgrade?
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADRs Outpace Local, Extreme Spread; ChipMOS Good Long Level
  • Country Garden Pledges to Deliver More Than 480,000 Homes in 2024
  • Travelsky (696 HK | BUY | TP:HKD9.92): Forget 2023, Think of 2024-25 Which Will Be Much Better
  • Indiamart Intermesh (INDIAMART) – Friday, Oct 20, 2023
  • Softbank (9984 JP): Big Fat NAV Discount, but Headwinds Outweigh Tailwinds Going Forward
  • Limbach Holdings Inc (LMB) – Friday, Oct 20, 2023
  • Franco-Nevada Corp (FNV) – Friday, Oct 20, 2023
  • VAALCO Energy (NYSE: EGY): Good operational performance in 4Q23


TSMC. Roaring Into Year Of The Dragon

By William Keating

  • Q423 revenues of $19.62 billion, at the high end of guidance, up 13.8% QoQ and down 1.5% YoY. Net profit margin of 38.2% results in net income of ~$7.5 billion.
  • FY23 revenues of $69.3 billion, down 8.7% YoY, only the second such down year since 2005
  • Bullish FY24 forecast for >20% YoY growth sends share price soaring in overnight trading. 

Dai-Ichi Life Holdings – 4 Quarters Strongly Rising Profit, ROE: 3% to 12%, A Profit Upgrade?

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP) has seen rebounding net profit at a strong rate of growth for the past four quarters.
  • ROE has moved from a dismal 3.4% to 11.8% from 2Q23 to 2Q24, where a single US bank impairment should now drop out of the numbers
  • New business annual premiums are up from JPY97bn to JPY122bn from 2Q23 to 2Q24 with a high solvency ratio of 654%

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADRs Outpace Local, Extreme Spread; ChipMOS Good Long Level

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: Stock Prices Soared After Reporting Earnings, But ADR Rose Higher… Now +12.4% Premium, Shortable Level
  • ASE: ADR Spread Has Rebounded Substantially, Now +8.6%. Not Yet at Short Levels.
  • ChipMOS: ADR Spread Drops to -2.2%, Good Level to Go Long.

Country Garden Pledges to Deliver More Than 480,000 Homes in 2024

By Caixin Global

  • Chinese property developer Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. vowed to deliver more than 480,000 homes in 2024, a more modest target than 2023 after it failed to achieve its 700,000-unit goal last year.
  • The focus of 2024 is still to “guarantee delivery, guarantee operation and guarantee credit,” of which delivery is the bottom line that Country Garden “must firmly hold,” Chairwoman Yang Huiyan said at the developer’s annual meeting Monday.
  • Country Garden, once China’s No. 1 developer by sales, delivered more than 600,000 units last year, short of its goal set at the beginning of 2023, the developer said.

Travelsky (696 HK | BUY | TP:HKD9.92): Forget 2023, Think of 2024-25 Which Will Be Much Better

By Mohshin Aziz

  • Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK) (TravelSky) issued its 2023 operating statistics and a profit warning that is far below market expectations, the share price has plunged by 36% 
  • Our analysis suggests that staff cost, commission, and systems costs have soared. This will be contained when traffic accelerates and absorbs these fixed cost items 
  • Our target price of HKD9.92 (+21% UPSIDE) is based on 2024 PE 14.8x (1SD below mean). Keep an eye, worthwhile trade, due for a bounce    

Indiamart Intermesh (INDIAMART) – Friday, Oct 20, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • IndiaMart is India’s largest online B2B marketplace with a market cap of $2 billion.
  • The company has a 60% market share of B2B e-commerce in India, indicating a large potential for growth.
  • IndiaMart benefits from a negative working capital business model, upfront supplier subscription payments, and a net cash balance sheet. It also has the option to invest in new business lines to expand its monetization opportunities. Despite limited advertising spend, the platform attracts over 1 billion in traffic.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Softbank (9984 JP): Big Fat NAV Discount, but Headwinds Outweigh Tailwinds Going Forward

By Victor Galliano

  • SoftBank group’s headline NAV discount is over 50%, factoring in the T-Mobile shares windfall at December-end
  • SoftBank Corp is looking to IPO digital payments company PayPay, which should also be a positive driver for SoftBank Group shares going forward, but only a marginal one
  • Arm shares have been defying gravity, but we see downside risk going forward, as well as questions over SVF1 and SVF2 private company valuations; and the threat of JPY appreciation

Limbach Holdings Inc (LMB) – Friday, Oct 20, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • IBP is a leading roll-up strategist in the building industry, having executed over 100 acquisitions in a short period of time.
  • The company leverages its national platform, supplier relationships, and operational expertise to enhance value while keeping the acquired companies’ local brands, talent, and customer relationships intact.
  • IBP’s successful acquisition strategy, along with its strong commitment to timely delivery and solid financial position, has helped the company become a key player in the insulation industry.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Franco-Nevada Corp (FNV) – Friday, Oct 20, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • Franco-Nevada Corporation is a gold-focused royalty and streaming company operating in the mining and energy sectors.
  • Despite not having any imminent corporate catalysts, it is considered a top-tier investment choice for exposure to precious metals.
  • Managed by a world-class operator, the company is expected to outperform other large-cap precious metals stocks and physical gold. Its involvement in the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids adds to its attractiveness for investors in the current economic climate.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


VAALCO Energy (NYSE: EGY): Good operational performance in 4Q23

By Auctus Advisors

  • • 4Q23 WI production of 23.1-23.5 mboe/d was comfortably within the management guidance of 22.9-24.6 mboe/d. • VAALCO held >US$120 mm in cash and cash equivalents at the end of December, up from US$103 mm at the end of September.
  • The YE23 cash position was impacted by the fact the Egyptian sales during 4Q23 were for the domestic market rather than exported (domestic sales carry a lower value than exported cargoes).

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors
  • TSMC Results Make Buy Story Even More Clear; Strong 2024E Guidance & Reiterates Multi-Year Growth
  • Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust (BREIT ) – Wednesday, Oct 18, 2023
  • HDFC Bank: Growth Trajectory Remains Intact Despite Short-Term Headwinds
  • Japanese Regional Banks – Three Key Positive Picks
  • [Earnings Preview] Intl. & Offshoring Markets to Drive Stunning Earnings for Schlumberger in Q423
  • Ginebra San Miguel Inc. (GSMI) – Thursday, Oct 19, 2023
  • Novatek (3034.TT): Reserved IPhone 16 DDIC for 3Q24F Shipment; 1Q24F Outlook Bright.
  • Huawei Faces Delays in EV Deliveries
  • Shift: Market Overreacts to Temporary Dip in Earnings


What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors

By Andrew Lu

  • TSMC expects 2024 semi sector in recovery with 20-25% y/y growth itself, driven by AI customers. By controlling capex, more rooms to raise dividends but no growth for equipment vendors.
  • Faster ramp on N3, likely N3E, N3P than competitor’s. TSMC expects 3nm from 6% of sales in 3Q23, 12.7% in 4Q23 to 15% in 2024, 3x y/y increase in 2024.
  • TSMC reports a nearly 30% q/q drop on IOT and consumer IC demand and sees weakness on 12″ mature technology despite better demand 8″ specialty technology.

TSMC Results Make Buy Story Even More Clear; Strong 2024E Guidance & Reiterates Multi-Year Growth

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC reported 4Q23 results at the upper end of its guidance. More importantly, the company guided for low/mid 20% 2024E sales growth and reiterated an expected 15-20% multi-year CAGR.
  • The company provided optimistic guidance for the overall semiconductor industry, forecasting 10% growth in 2024E. TSMC expects to grow much faster than the industry, however.
  • TSMC is one of our Structural Longs; our NT$760 target implies 29% upside. The latest results make TSMC’s Buy case even more clear, in our view.

Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust (BREIT ) – Wednesday, Oct 18, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • The implied cap rate of less than 4% for “cats and dogs” in the real estate market seems unusually low, given the risks and uncertainties involved.
  • Redeeming from BREIT and utilizing their liquidity provisions would allow investors to sell at prices higher than the year-end 2021 valuation, suggesting a potential opportunity for profit.
  • Taking advantage of this opportunity could be a wise move considering the potential risks associated with the real estate market.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


HDFC Bank: Growth Trajectory Remains Intact Despite Short-Term Headwinds

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • HDFC Bank’s (HDFCB) stock was down over -8% yesterday and is down over -3% today. The stock seems to have reacted to low deposit growth (~2% QoQ) in Q3FY24 .
  • Post the merger with HDFC Ltd that completed in Jun 2023, HDFCB needs to grow its deposits at a fast pace to support its loan growth.
  • We think HDFCB is well placed to do so. It also has an option to raise capital through affordable housing bonds which have good economics, similar to term deposits.

Japanese Regional Banks – Three Key Positive Picks

By Victor Galliano

  • We explore twelve Japanese regional banks to look for key beneficiaries of the improving interest rate outlook, along with valuations, credit quality and capital adequacy
  • The global interest rate outlook is in some flux, with the Fed’s and ECB’s prospects of near-term easing being tempered; this should support Japanese JGB yields and domestic bank valuations
  • We are positive on three banks that are big beneficiaries of rising domestic interest rates; top pick Tokyo Kiraboshi Financial, Gunma Bank and higher risk option Suruga Bank

[Earnings Preview] Intl. & Offshoring Markets to Drive Stunning Earnings for Schlumberger in Q423

By Suhas Reddy

  • Growth is expected to be fueled by robust performance in international markets. Management expects revenue growth for 2023 to cross 15% YoY.
  • Pretax operating margins in Q42023 to get a boost from higher year-end digital sales and seasonal product and equipment sales.
  • The analyst consensus on the stock’s growth is overwhelmingly bullish given the expectation of strong growth in international and offshore segments.

Ginebra San Miguel Inc. (GSMI) – Thursday, Oct 19, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • GSMI is a leader in the Filipino spirits industry and is best known for its flagship brand Ginebra San Miguel, the largest gin brand in the world by sales volume.
  • Local companies, including GSMI, Tanduay, and Emperador, dominate the spirits industry in the Philippines.
  • Despite lacking global brand recognition, GSMI holds a strong position in the local market, although smaller players such as The Keepers Inc. importing foreign brands may pose competition in the long run.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Novatek (3034.TT): Reserved IPhone 16 DDIC for 3Q24F Shipment; 1Q24F Outlook Bright.

By Patrick Liao

  • Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) had reserved Apple (AAPL US) iPhone 16 Display Driver IC (DDIC) for future shipment since 3Q24F when qualification past.
  • Novatek’s outlook is increasing to about 1~5% in 1Q24F, remarked a higher quarter demand than 4Q23.
  • It could be a low season in 2Q24F because the rush order shown up around Chinese New Year.  

Huawei Faces Delays in EV Deliveries

By Caixin Global

  • Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. is facing trouble in meeting delivery commitments for the first electric vehicle (EV) it has co-developed with auto partner Chery Automobile Co. Ltd., a possible sign of supply chain challenges for the model.
  • Some people who placed orders for the Luxeed S7, which is the first electric sedan marketed under Huawei’s Smart Selection business model, recently complained online that they could not receive their cars within the promised timeframe.
  • In an effort to mollify the customers, Luxeed announced Monday on social media that it will provide people who placed orders for the Luxeed S7 between Nov. 28 and Jan. 15 with varying cash compensation capped at 10,000 yuan ($1,403), based on their wait time.

Shift: Market Overreacts to Temporary Dip in Earnings

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Shift Inc (3697 JP) reported 1QFY08/2024 results last week. Revenue and OP increased 29.5% and 0.4% YoY to ¥25.1bn and ¥1.8bn respectively.
  • Both revenue and OP were below consensus estimates which triggered a more than 25% drop in Shift’s share price over the last 5 days.
  • We think the weaknesses in the company’s 1Q earnings were temporary and we expect the company’s earnings to show recovery going forward

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