Category

Equity Bottom-Up

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Spindex (SPE SP) Illiquid but Very Cheap Company and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Spindex (SPE SP) Illiquid but Very Cheap Company
  • Tencent/Netease: One Game for Netease in April
  • Tariffs and Troughs: Alcoa’s Pain May Be the Entry Point
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (22-Apr-2025): Wanda sells hotel business for $347M.
  • The Beat Ideas- Shilchar Technologies: Powering the Grid, Energizing Growth
  • The Beat Ideas: Danish Power Limited – Riding the Green Energy Wave
  • Shakey’s Pizza (PIZZA PM) FY24 and Concall Highlights: Solid Q4 Bottomline, Strong FY25 Guidance
  • Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) | Peak Provisions Behind
  • Sysmex Corp (6869 JP): The US Tariff Wound Would Not Be Deep Enough
  • VietNam Holding — Vietnam is navigating turbulent trade war


Spindex (SPE SP) Illiquid but Very Cheap Company

By Punit Khanna

  • Spindex is an illiquid but well managed company listed in Singapore
  • It trades at less than 2X EV/EBDITA multiple  while its competitor Innovalues got privatised at 9 X EV/EBDITA
  • With 60% of market cap in cash, ex-cash current assets are more than total liabilities, offering limited downside

Tencent/Netease: One Game for Netease in April

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • China announced game approval for the April batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
  • The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
  • While Netease received one game approval for its domestic game, Tencent received an approval for an imported game.

Tariffs and Troughs: Alcoa’s Pain May Be the Entry Point

By Rahul Jain

  • Lagged results: Q1 EPS surged 171% QoQ on aluminum price strength, offsetting alumina softness; EBITDA rose to $855M despite weaker volumes.
  • Tariff overhang: $105M quarterly drag from Section 232 now embedded; net annual impact ~$100M—yet Midwest premium offsets buffer U.S. exposure.
  • Trading near book at 1.04x P/B—cycle pessimism and policy risks may present contrarian upside.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (22-Apr-2025): Wanda sells hotel business for $347M.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Wanda sells hotel business to Tencent-backed firm for $347M, indicating a strategic shift in their business operations.
  • Keppel raises $1.5B for data centre, education funds, and urban renewal, showing a focus on diverse investments.
  • Cushman & Wakefield appoints Matthew Bouw as APAC CEO for EMEA, highlighting leadership changes in the real estate industry.

The Beat Ideas- Shilchar Technologies: Powering the Grid, Energizing Growth

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Shilchar’s focus on Inverter Duty Transformers positions it to capitalize on the booming renewable energy sector, especially solar, supporting long-term growth and profitability.
  • Shilchar’s recent capacity expansion, with a potential to scale further, ensures it can meet increasing domestic and export demand for transformers, positioning it for sustained market leadership.
  • Shilchar’s debt-free balance sheet and strong cash reserves enable strategic reinvestment in capacity and technology, ensuring continued growth in the competitive transformer industry.

The Beat Ideas: Danish Power Limited – Riding the Green Energy Wave

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Danish Power (DANISH IN) stands to benefit from India’s aggressive shift towards renewable energy, particularly solar, supported by strong product offerings like Inverter Duty Transformers, which drive substantial revenue growth.
  • DPL’s strategic shift to higher-margin products, improved operating leverage, and expanded capacity should fuel margin expansion and support sustained profitability, positioning it well for continued growth and competitiveness.
  • With a robust order book exceeding INR 400 crore and an active pipeline, DPL has solid revenue visibility supported by strong demand in domestic and international markets.

Shakey’s Pizza (PIZZA PM) FY24 and Concall Highlights: Solid Q4 Bottomline, Strong FY25 Guidance

By Sameer Taneja

  • Shakey’s Pizza (PIZZA PM) delivered FY24 revenue/profit growth of 13%/11% YoY.  This was due to a turnaround of 9MFY24 revenue/profits from-10%/10% YoY, with Q4FY24 high season revenue/profits growing 19%/57% YoY.
  • The company is experiencing a sequential improvement in its SSSG, which is continuing into Q1 FY25. It has guided double-digit growth in revenues and profits in FY25.
  • Trading at 11.5x/10.2x PE for FY24/25e, with low expectations, we believe there could be a good rally post the results.

Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) | Peak Provisions Behind

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • We interacted with Microfinance BU (Business Unit) managers of Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) across major states in India. 
  • Our objective was to understand the current collection trends and asset quality issues especially in the Microfinance Portfolio. 
  • Based on our interactions, we would like to put a case for declining provisions going ahead. 

Sysmex Corp (6869 JP): The US Tariff Wound Would Not Be Deep Enough

By Tina Banerjee

  • Sysmex Corp (6869 JP) earns 26% of total revenue from Americas. During 9MFY25, revenue from Americas increased 13% YoY to ¥96B.
  • The U.S. President Trump has proposed 10% baseline import tariffs on medical devices. Although Trump announced a 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs, the respite seems to be temporary.
  • Sysmex is exposed to tariff for instruments only as reagents are produced locally. Instrument sales in the Americas account for 5–6% of revenue, so tariff impact would be negligible.

VietNam Holding — Vietnam is navigating turbulent trade war

By Edison Investment Research

Vietnam Holding (VNH) delivered solid net asset value (NAV) per share growth of 16.5% in 2024, ahead of the Vietnam All-Share Index (VNAS), which rose 10.2%. The fund has outperformed the market over the long term, highlighting the manager\’s stock selection expertise, which is supported by the fund’s relatively small size, allowing for great flexibility and nimbleness. After introducing the tender offer mechanism, the discount to NAV had largely closed by late 2024. In the first quarter of 2025, the political turmoil caused by US tariff announcements weighed on valuations across emerging markets, especially exporters to the US like Vietnam (the VNAS was down by 17% in a week). We note that Vietnam has undertaken a series of steps aimed at avoiding the worst-case scenario, and we believe VNH’s agile investment approach may allow it to capture opportunities as they arise. At the same time, VNH’s shares are currently available at a 7% discount, despite the already depressed NAV.


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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: BYD (1211 HK): Some Threats Before 1Q25 Result and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • BYD (1211 HK): Some Threats Before 1Q25 Result
  • Big Crypto Money Move in Korea – Impact on Key Listed Korean Companies
  • MSL: High ROCE, Strong Moat – Rides Energy Capex Surge
  • ENN Energy (2688 HK): Privatisation Progressing Well Ahead
  • Korea Value Up (3 Winners and 7 Losers Among KOSPI 200 Companies) In March and April 2025
  • India’s Biggest Small-Cap Shell Game
  • Adastria: Cautious on the Platform Narrative, But Optimistic on Margins and Valuation Rebound
  • Shandong Fengxiang (9977.HK) Privatization – Long-Term Investors May Be Unhappy with the Offer Price
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (21-Apr-2025): Mapletree sells Scotland student housing.
  • Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Positive Phase 3 Results Of Orforglipron Augurs Well


BYD (1211 HK): Some Threats Before 1Q25 Result

By Ming Lu

  • The growth rate of sales volume slowed down in March 2025.
  • Geely’s sales volume reached 46% of BYD’s in 1Q25, compared to 23% in 2024.
  • We set a downside of 18% and a price target of HK$300 for the next twelve months.

Big Crypto Money Move in Korea – Impact on Key Listed Korean Companies

By Douglas Kim

  • There has been a big crypto money move in Korea. Market cap of crypto currencies held in crypto exchanges in Korea nearly doubled from October to November 2024. 
  • We discuss 8 major listed companies in Korea that are major beneficiaries (directly and indirectly) of this big move into crypto currencies in Korea. 
  • Some of the major beneficiaries include Kakao Corp, KT Corp, Hanwha Securities, Woori Technology Investment, and Vidente.

MSL: High ROCE, Strong Moat – Rides Energy Capex Surge

By Rahul Jain

  • Market leader with 55% share in seamless pipes, Rs2,400 Cr net cash, and stable Rs15,000–17,000/ton EBITDA backed by strong oil & gas demand. 
  • Efficient capital allocator delivering 20%+ ROCE, with consistent insider buying reflecting high promoter confidence.
  • 26% profit CAGR over 5 years, yet trades at ~12x P/E, offering value in a structurally growing industry.

ENN Energy (2688 HK): Privatisation Progressing Well Ahead

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • ENN Energy (2688 HK) is not required to submit a merger control filing to the SAMR, suggesting it is making a step ahead in meeting the pre-conditions. 
  • The use of onshore bank loans and cash balance as a refinancing source and consideration payment will lower financing costs, boosting the value of ENN Natural Gas H-share.
  • The current share price is 9.3 and 17.7% below the low-bound and high-bound of our estimated value range. It is also less vulnerable to the current tariff war.

Korea Value Up (3 Winners and 7 Losers Among KOSPI 200 Companies) In March and April 2025

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide the details of the 10 most recent companies in KOSPI 200 that have announced their Corporate Value Up plans (April and March 2025).
  • These 10 companies in KOSPI 200 that have announced their Corporate Value Up plans are down on average 1.3% versus KOSPI which is down 2% in the same period.
  • Three companies that have outperformed KOSPI (since their Corporate Value Up report announcement) include Hanmi Semiconductor, Hyundai Engineering & Construction, and Samyang Foods. 

India’s Biggest Small-Cap Shell Game

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • The Mahadev Betting Scam exposed the infiltration of illegal gambling money into the stock market, manipulating small-cap stocks through offshore shell companies and pump-and-dump strategies.
  • This scandal demonstrates how vulnerable markets are to operator-driven speculation, leading to artificial stock price surges, which mislead investors and undermine market integrity, creating systemic risks.
  • The episode emphasizes the need for heightened due diligence, transparency, and scrutiny of foreign portfolio investors, encouraging investors to be more cautious of unexplained stock movements and shell company involvement.

Adastria: Cautious on the Platform Narrative, But Optimistic on Margins and Valuation Rebound

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Adastria’s “5th CHANGE” outlines a strategic pivot from specialty retail to a platform model aimed at scaling across brands, categories, and geographies while navigating domestic headwinds and evolving consumer behaviors.
  • While Adastria Co Ltd (2685 JP)’s narrative emphasizes transformation, actual targets for user growth and GMV expansion appear modest, suggesting limited operational changes.
  • Despite mixed views on the mid-term plan, we remain optimistic on Adastria. Gross margin normalization could drive meaningful OP upside, potentially surpassing mid-term plan targets.

Shandong Fengxiang (9977.HK) Privatization – Long-Term Investors May Be Unhappy with the Offer Price

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Based on our forecast, growth may be under pressure in 2025, but would recover in 2026/2027.The Cancellation Price is attractive for investors who want to cash out in short term.
  • Some long-term investors may hope to see an improvement in Fengxiang’s fundementals and long-term performance after PAG/Abu Dhabi Investment step in. Their attitude may bring uncertainties to the privatization.
  • The business logic of PAG is not a simple financial investment, but a higher pursuit. Fengxiang is a high-quality asset for PAG.Share Alternative Offer could help increase the success rate

Asia Real Estate Tracker (21-Apr-2025): Mapletree sells Scotland student housing.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Mapletree, a real estate firm, has sold Scottish student housing to a Dutch fund manager, expanding its international portfolio.
  • Shanghai office rents have decreased for the 12th consecutive quarter, reflecting a downward trend in the local real estate market.
  • Central Tokyo office rents have increased due to rising construction costs, impacting rates for new supply and attracting investor interest.

Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Positive Phase 3 Results Of Orforglipron Augurs Well

By Tina Banerjee

  • Eli Lilly & Co (LLY US) has recently announced positive topline Phase 3 results for orforglipron, the GLP 1 RA drug candidate they licensed from Chugai Pharma in 2018.
  • At the top dose, patients lost 7.3 kg of the 90.2 kg they weighed at the start of the trial, bettering Ozempic’s trial results.
  • Once approved and commercialized, orforglipron should provide a long-term revenue visibility for Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP) through milestone and royalty receipts from Lilly.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: What TSMC’s 1Q25 Results Reveal About the Future of Chipmaking in the U.S. (Structural Long) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • What TSMC’s 1Q25 Results Reveal About the Future of Chipmaking in the U.S. (Structural Long)
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at Mid-Range; Short Interest Highs for ASE & IMOS
  • DISCO: Growth Is Slowing Down, the Stock Is Still Expensive
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC U.S. Bet Pays Off; UMC & Faraday Step Up Next; Latest Mobile Shipments Data
  • Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Price Turns Negative | Tariff, Ship Levy Impacts (April 2025)
  • Art of the Deal : Value Destruction for a Listed Company, and a Weak Coming IPO
  • Adani Ports: Riding the Global Ports Wave with Scale, Margin, and Visibility
  • Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (IV)
  • Aeon’s Plans to Absorb Aeon Mall and Aeon Delight Will Help Margin Growth
  • Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas – April 2025


What TSMC’s 1Q25 Results Reveal About the Future of Chipmaking in the U.S. (Structural Long)

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC’s Arizona Yield Success Silences Doubts: Management confirmed first U.S. fab has achieved yields comparable to Taiwan, validating global replication model and reinforcing alignment with U.S. clients like Apple, Nvidia. 
  • U.S. Buildout Anchoring TSMC’s Long-Term Dominance: With 30% of N2 and beyond capacity to be in USA, TSMC building footprint across fabs, packaging, and R&D competitors will struggle to match. 
  • Margins Resilient, AI Demand Accelerating: 1Q25 beat on AI strength despite smartphone softness and earthquake disruption. 2Q25E revenue guidance of +13% QoQ reflects continued momentum in advanced nodes and HPC.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at Mid-Range; Short Interest Highs for ASE & IMOS

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: 16.5% Premium; Short Interest Remains Near Historical Highs for ADR and Local
  • ASE: +2.2% Premium; Wait for Closer to Par Before Going Long; Short Interest in Local Shares at Highs
  • ChipMOS: +1.1% Premium; Short Interest in Local Shares Hits New Highs

DISCO: Growth Is Slowing Down, the Stock Is Still Expensive

By Nicolas Baratte

  • DISCO Mar-25 results beat Consensus by ~12%. Jun-25 guidance is very weak but DISCO always under-guides egregiously. But it’s weak.
  • Consensus has revised down its Jun-25 revenue forecast from 12% YoY growth to 6% but left Sept-Dec-25 unchanged at ~10% YoY growth. The odds are that Consensus is too high.
  • The stock is down -39% since end Dec-24 but still trading at 20x EPS in the face of downside risks to Consensus. Not appealing.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC U.S. Bet Pays Off; UMC & Faraday Step Up Next; Latest Mobile Shipments Data

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC’s Arizona fab hits Taiwan-level yields, easing replication concerns and reinforcing its global leadership across N2 and advanced packaging. 
  • AI demand offsets smartphone softness in 1Q25; TSMC guides +13% QoQ revenue for 2Q25 as margins hold firm despite tariff and earthquake headwinds. 
  • Faraday and UMC results ahead this week — Key readouts on Taiwan’s ASIC, mature node, and design service momentum amid U.S.-China tech decoupling.

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Price Turns Negative | Tariff, Ship Levy Impacts (April 2025)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • For the first time since Q322, our price momentum index flipped to negative
  • We see few signs of US tariff impacts in the March data — not surprising
  • New US levies on China-built ships unhelpful, but most carriers can adjust

Art of the Deal : Value Destruction for a Listed Company, and a Weak Coming IPO

By J Capital Research

  • American Data Centers, after a one-month stint as a joint venture between bush league broker Dominari Holdings (NASDAQ: DOMH) and Eric and Donald Trump Jr., is now becoming a bitcoin miner and hoping for a Nasdaq IPO.
  • ADC is doing this in tandem with a public company that already failed at mining. We strongly doubt that either ADC, in its shape shift to miner, or its public sponsor will be a good bet for investors. 
  • On March 31, 2025, Eric Trump announced plans for a joint venture bitcoin mining company with Hut 8 Corp (NASDAQ: HUT).

Adani Ports: Riding the Global Ports Wave with Scale, Margin, and Visibility

By Rahul Jain

  • NQXT brings structural leverage: 35 MMT of throughput, 65% EBITDA margin, and zero-debt funding makes this a clean, long-cycle infrastructure asset. Pro forma FY27E EV/EBITDA compresses to 12.6x; P/E 19x.
  • FY25 guidance upgraded: Revenue now pegged at Rs29,000–31,000 Cr (vs Rs26,000–27,000 Cr earlier), EBITDA at Rs18,800–18,900 Cr, and cargo volume at 460–480 MMT — upper band implies a strong Q4.
  • Trades at 12.6x FY27E EV/EBITDA, APSEZ offers growth, operating leverage, and global strategic footprint and ramping port utilization. Likely disruptions in trade flows post Trump tariffs is a risk.

Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (IV)

By Patrick Liao

  • After the new CEO, Mr. Lip-Pu Tan, took office at the chip giant Intel Corp (INTC US), he initiated a large-scale restructuring of the executive team and organization.
  • Intel Corp (INTC US) to sell 51% share of Altera to Silver Lake, a global leader in technology investing. This deal is further to deal with non-performing assets.
  • Now, the critical question is, who are the clients of Intel Corp (INTC US) IFS (Intel Foundry Service)?  

Aeon’s Plans to Absorb Aeon Mall and Aeon Delight Will Help Margin Growth

By Michael Causton

  • Aeon will turn Aeon Mall and its facilities management business, Aeon Delight, into subsidiaries.
  • The move is part of plans to rationalise and inject new momentum into its shopping building business, including new types of neighbourhood mall.
  • It will also use Aeon Mall’s overseas network to scout for promising tenants for its malls and GMS stores.

Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas – April 2025

By Sameer Taneja

  • We are gradually building a high-conviction coverage of ideas for mid and small-cap companies in the Philippines.
  • We established metrics focusing on high ROCE, sustainable growth of 10-15% year-over-year, robust balance sheets, and prudent capital allocation, essential elements for identifying potential multi-bagger opportunities.
  • We add ICTSI (ICT PM)  and Asian Terminals (ATI PM) to our Philippines high-conviction list, which we will be initiating coverage on shortly. 

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: TSMC. Full Steam Ahead Despite Tariff Threats & China Bans. For Now. and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • TSMC. Full Steam Ahead Despite Tariff Threats & China Bans. For Now.
  • Sartorius AG (SRT GR): Strong 1Q25 Result; Positive Takeaway For Bioprocessing Industry
  • Hyundai Rotem: Surging Growth of Defense Exports


TSMC. Full Steam Ahead Despite Tariff Threats & China Bans. For Now.

By William Keating

  • TSMC offered a surprisingly robust outlook for the current quarter with revenues expected to rise 13% QoQ to $28.8 billion at the midpoint, their highest ever quarterly revenue.
  • No change to the previous full year 2025 guidance of mid-20% growth in US$ terms
  • It’s likely too early to see the full impact of tariffs and further China restrictions in TSMC’s outlook, but the second half will likely be a different story

Sartorius AG (SRT GR): Strong 1Q25 Result; Positive Takeaway For Bioprocessing Industry

By Tina Banerjee

  • Sartorius AG (SRT GR) reported 21% YoY increase in net profit for 1Q25 on 7% YoY growth in sales. Growth was driven by Bioprocessing Solutions division, which facilitates biopharma manufacturing.
  • The company expects sales to increase by ~6%, with EBITDA margin of 29–30% (2024: 28.0%) for 2025. Bioprocess Solutions division is projected to grow ~7% in 2025.
  • With Sartorius reporting a strong 1Q25 result, we are upbeat on the 1Q25 performance as well as near-term growth prospects of two major biopharma CDMO players, Samsung Biologics and Lonza.

Hyundai Rotem: Surging Growth of Defense Exports

By Douglas Kim

  • We remain impressed with Hyundai Rotem’s aggressive new orders for defense and railway systems.
  • Defense exports as a percentage of total sales increased from 0% in 2021 to 6.1% in 2022, 19% in 2023, and 36.4% in 2024.
  • Hyundai Rotem had an order backlog of 14.1 trillion won at the end of 2024. Order backlog/sales ratio was 3.2x in 2024. 

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Asia Real Estate Tracker (18-Apr-2025): Morgan Stanley buys 50% of Frasers Aussie Shed Portfolio. and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (18-Apr-2025): Morgan Stanley buys 50% of Frasers Aussie Shed Portfolio.
  • The Beat Ideas- Time Technoplast: Driving Growth Through Innovation & Value-Added Products
  • The Beat Ideas: Vinati Organics- A Niche Giant in Specialty Chemicals
  • Mani (7730 JP): Guidance Reiterated; Dental Loosing Shine And Dented Margins Remain Concerns


Asia Real Estate Tracker (18-Apr-2025): Morgan Stanley buys 50% of Frasers Aussie Shed Portfolio.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Morgan Stanley purchases 50% stake in $380M Frasers Australian warehouse portfolio, expanding its real estate holdings.
  • CapitaLand seeks $380M China Mall REIT listing in Shanghai, showing confidence in China’s retail market.
  • China experiences moderate home price growth in March, with some cities showing signs of recovery after recent slowdowns.

The Beat Ideas- Time Technoplast: Driving Growth Through Innovation & Value-Added Products

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Time Technoplast (TIME IN) holds a dominant position in the industrial packaging sector, with leadership in composite cylinders, IBCs, plastic drums, benefiting from a strong global presence& high entry barriers.
  • TTL is increasingly focusing on higher-margin segments like CNG cylinders, hydrogen storage, and composite products. These initiatives offer significant scalability and margin expansion, setting up strong long-term revenue growth.
  • With strategic R&D investments, TTL is entering emerging sectors like e-mobility (e-rickshaw batteries) and hydrogen fuel cylinders, tapping into new high-growth markets that could diversify revenue and fuel sustainable growth.

The Beat Ideas: Vinati Organics- A Niche Giant in Specialty Chemicals

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Vinati Organics (VO IN) dominates the global market with a 65% share in ATBS and IBB, offering strong profitability driven by high-demand sectors like water treatment and pharmaceuticals.
  • With a INR570 crore capex investment, Vinati is expanding its ATBS capacity by 50%, diversifying into high-growth segments such as MEHQ, Guaiacol, and Antioxidants, positioning itself for long-term revenue growth.
  • Vinati is strategically increasing its domestic revenue share (45% of FY24 sales), while strengthening its export presence, capitalizing on India’s “Make in India” initiative and reducing currency volatility risks.

Mani (7730 JP): Guidance Reiterated; Dental Loosing Shine And Dented Margins Remain Concerns

By Tina Banerjee

  • Mani Inc (7730 JP) H1FY25 revenue rose 6.5% YoY, mainly driven by surgical segment, eyeless needles segment, while margins remained under pressure.
  • Despite the underperformance of dental segment, management reiterated FY25 guidance. Expecting Yen appreciation against the USD, the company expects just mid-single-digit sales and operating income growth for FY25.
  • Mani shares plunged 5% since it published its H1 results. Investors should avoid Mani due to its uncertain revenue outlook and deteriorating profitability in short-term.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): No Clients Have Reacted to the Tariff Changes Since Trump Reacted so Quickly and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): No Clients Have Reacted to the Tariff Changes Since Trump Reacted so Quickly
  • Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – New Products with a Heavy Hint of AI
  • TSMC 1H25 Revenue up 37% YoY. Upside to Full Year Outlook. AI and CoWoS Revenue Double in 2025.
  • Wintermar Offshore Marine (WINS IJ) – Ahoy! Recovery Ahead
  • A Visit to Inspire Integrated Resort in Incheon, South Korea
  • [Earnings Preview] Halliburton Pressured by North American Slowdown and Tariffs
  • [JD.com, Inc (JD US, BUY, TP US$60) TP Change]: C1Q25 Preview: An Anchor of Stability Within Turmoil
  • Nauticus Robotics, Inc.: On the Anvil of Commercialization
  • DKSH Malaysia Stable Free Cash Flow Generating Business Available at Attractive Valuations
  • What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 17 April (Heineken | Basic-Fit | InPost | Sligro Food Group)


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): No Clients Have Reacted to the Tariff Changes Since Trump Reacted so Quickly

By Patrick Liao

  • Revenue expected to be USD$28.4-29.2 bn (+13% QoQ/38% YoY), with gross margin projected to be 57-59% and operating profit margin at 47-49%.
  • Tariffs still have uncertainties, so our current capability to share is expected to maintain 24-26% YoY.  
  • Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) plans to build 6 Fabs in Arizona, with 2nm being the main focus there, hence 30% will be allocated there.

Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – New Products with a Heavy Hint of AI

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Grab hosted “GrabX” in Singapore and online to showcase a range of AI-driven product offerings that promise to be future growth drivers for the company.
  • GrabFood For One and Shared Saver both have the potential to attract significant new business, but there was also the launch of AI-assistant Maya for Merchants to drive orders. 
  • Additionally, Grab Unlimited continues to grow and be transformed into a fully-fledged loyalty program. Valuations are attractive, and Grab is set to make a net profit this year.

TSMC 1H25 Revenue up 37% YoY. Upside to Full Year Outlook. AI and CoWoS Revenue Double in 2025.

By Nicolas Baratte

  • 2Q25 strong revenue. Full year outlook (revenue up mid-20% YoY) looks a bit low since 1H25 is growing at ~37%. CoWoS and AI revenues still expected to double in 2025.
  • Revenue and capacity outlook: very confident. US capacity is accelerating. But margins dilution warning, part of this is US import tariffs uncertainty. Strong denial on any Intel linkup.  
  • The stock is cheap at 14.7x 2025 EPS (consensus probably a bit low) and 12.5x 2026 EPS. The market might still be in correction mode, but TSMC is nicely discounted. 

Wintermar Offshore Marine (WINS IJ) – Ahoy! Recovery Ahead

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Wintermar Offshore Marine booked a strong set of FY2024, confirming the ongoing recovery of the offshore oil & gas shipping segment and especially demand for higher-tier vessels.
  • The company continues to build its fleet with several vessels coming on stream in FY2025 and FY2026, driven by optimism around ongoing investments in offshore oil & gas in Indonesia. 
  • Wintermar Offshore Marine intends to sell its low-tier vessels and invest in more high-tier vessels this year, helping to drive future growth. 

A Visit to Inspire Integrated Resort in Incheon, South Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • I recently visited Inspire Entertainment Resort in Yeongjeongdo, Korea with my family. 
  • Overall, I was impressed with its modern, clean facilities, but despite its large size, there was a relative emptiness to the place that made it feel underutilized.
  • The management rights of Inspire Resort were transferred to Bain Capital from Mohegan Gaming & Entertainment (MGE) in February 2025.

[Earnings Preview] Halliburton Pressured by North American Slowdown and Tariffs

By Suhas Reddy

  • Halliburton’s Q1 revenue is set to drop 9.1% YoY, with EPS down 21.1%, driven by soft North American activity and weak oil prices.
  • Halliburton has underperformed the S&P 500, XLE, and peers SLB and Baker Hughes, weighed down by its greater U.S. shale exposure and rising input costs.
  • Despite near-term headwinds, analysts retain a “Buy” rating on Halliburton, citing strong cash flows, a solid balance sheet, and strategic investments.

[JD.com, Inc (JD US, BUY, TP US$60) TP Change]: C1Q25 Preview: An Anchor of Stability Within Turmoil

By Ying Pan

  • We expect JD to report C1Q25 revenue/adjusted net income growth of 13%/21% YoY, both in-line with consensus, boosted by gov’t subsidies.
  • We see further catalysts from C2Q25 onward, driven by absorption of export-turned orders, helped by additional policy stimulus, which we believe will mainly augment on margins. 
  • We keep JD as the TOP BUY and raise TP from US$52to US$ 60.

Nauticus Robotics, Inc.: On the Anvil of Commercialization

By Water Tower Research

  • Last year was transformational for KITT, with its strategy shifting to commercializing its technology from its prior focus on research and development.
  • The company expects 2025 “will continue to be a year of change.”
  • On the earnings call and callback, our focus was on sizing the opportunity, the outlook for the year given long lead times and seasonality in the business, and the competitive landscape.

DKSH Malaysia Stable Free Cash Flow Generating Business Available at Attractive Valuations

By Punit Khanna

  • It has stable free cash flow generating business which involves own marketing own brands, distributing consumer and healthcare products in Malaysia
  • The company has double digit ROE and trades below Book Value per Share
  • Trades at significantly lower  valuations to its parent and  other Malaysian consumer stocks

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 17 April (Heineken | Basic-Fit | InPost | Sligro Food Group)

By The IDEA!

  • In this edition: • Heineken | main takeaways earnings call • Basic-Fit | solid start of the year – reiterates FY25 guidance – secures EUR 200m RCF • InPost | acquisition of Yodel a real opportunity • Sligro Food Group | modest revenue growth when adjusted for exceptionals

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Anta (2020 HK): Acquired Jack Wolfskin and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Anta (2020 HK): Acquired Jack Wolfskin, Still Financial Momentum, Upgrade to Buy
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (16-Apr-2025): Singapore’s LHN Group wants SGX listing for Coliwoo Co-Living.
  • Asian Dividend Gems: Hyundai Elevator
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at High-End; ChipMOS & CHT Multi-Year High Short Interest
  • DKSH Malaysia (DKSH MH): Stable Business Available at Attractive Valuation
  • Gensol Engineering Forensic Analysis: Insights from SEBI’s Investigation
  • The Beat Ideas: Samhi Hotels, A Strategic Play on India’s Premium Hotels
  • China East Education (667 HK): In an Excellent Position
  • [Earnings Preview] SLB Faces Downward Pressure from Weak Oil Prices and Softening Demand
  • SMIORE: Transitioning from Merchant Miner to Integrated Steel & Minerals Powerhouse


Anta (2020 HK): Acquired Jack Wolfskin, Still Financial Momentum, Upgrade to Buy

By Ming Lu

  • The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin means the brand portfolio strategy still works.
  • The financial potential is NOT as weak as the 2024 result looks.
  • We conclude an upside of 40% and a price target of HK$122 for the next twelve months.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (16-Apr-2025): Singapore’s LHN Group wants SGX listing for Coliwoo Co-Living.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • LHN Group intends to list Coliwoo Co-Living on SGX, expanding their presence in the real estate market.
  • C&W reports a significant 42% drop in office rents in Hong Kong, reflecting the changing landscape post-Q1 2019.
  • PGIM Real Estate promotes David Fassbender to Deputy Head of APAC, indicating a shift in leadership within the company.

Asian Dividend Gems: Hyundai Elevator

By Douglas Kim

  • Hyundai Elevator Co (017800 KS)’s share price has been moving higher on the back of higher dividends and a beneficiary of the potential economic co-operations between North and South Korea.
  • Hyundai Elevator currently has a dividend yield of 8%, which is one of the highest dividend yields among Korean companies with more than 2 trillion won in market cap.
  • There have been some initial discussions about increased economic co-operation between North and South Korea. Hyundai Elevator is a key beneficiary in such a scenario. 

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at High-End; ChipMOS & CHT Multi-Year High Short Interest

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +21.5% Premium; Consider Shorting the Spread at This Level
  • ChipMOS: +3.2% Premium; Good Level to Consider Shorting the Spread: Local Shares’ Short Interest at Multi-Year Highs
  • CHT: +1.3% Premium; Good Level to Consider Shorting the Spread; ADR Short Interest at Multi-Year Highs

DKSH Malaysia (DKSH MH): Stable Business Available at Attractive Valuation

By Punit Khanna

  • Stable and free cash flow generating business available at attractive price
  • Trades below book with double digit ROE and at Significant discount to its parent valuation
  • Priced towards low end of historical PE and P/B ( similar to COVID valuations)

Gensol Engineering Forensic Analysis: Insights from SEBI’s Investigation

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • SEBI has launched a forensic investigation into Gensol Engineering Ltd. (GEL), highlighting grave concerns around corporate governance, fund misuse, and misleading disclosures
  • What began as a story of meteoric financial growth has now unfolded into a cautionary tale of alleged fund diversion, shady preferential allotments, and sharp promoter decline.
  • This research note delves into the key issues identified by SEBI, the financial patterns that triggered scrutiny, and the implications for stakeholders.

The Beat Ideas: Samhi Hotels, A Strategic Play on India’s Premium Hotels

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • SAMHI Hotels (SAMHI IN) witnessing a 9-10% top-line growth attributed to same-store Average Room Rate (ARR) growth and robust occupancy trend across all the segments.     
  • Company is set to generate a top line of INR 3.2-3.5bn pa post stabilization in 2 years with an increase of 532 keys across three hotels.
  • Company is expecting 35% revenue growth in next 3-4 years by repositioning the ACIC portfolio under the Marriott Tribute & Courtyard brands and opening new hotels like W& Westin Tribute. 

China East Education (667 HK): In an Excellent Position

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China East Education (667 HK) remains well-positioned in the government’s support of vocational education, despite its YTD outperformance.
  • Higher average tuition per student, better cost control, accelerating growth in the “Fashion and Beauty” segment,  and new course introduction are the main profit drivers.
  • Net cash equals 17.2% of the share price, while other peers are struggling with debt repayment. Coupled with stronger earnings CAGR, its premium PERs are justified.

[Earnings Preview] SLB Faces Downward Pressure from Weak Oil Prices and Softening Demand

By Suhas Reddy

  • Schlumberger’s Q1 2025 revenue is expected to drop by 7.6% QoQ, while its EPS is anticipated to fall by 19.6%, marking the lowest EPS in five quarters.
  • SLB has underperformed the S&P 500, XLE, and WTI futures since 2024, pressured by weak oil prices, lower drilling activity, and rising costs from tariff-related headwinds.
  • Despite weaker return ratios in Q4 2024 and macro uncertainty, SLB maintains a “Strong Buy” consensus, backed by its global presence, digital expansion, and strong cash flow.

SMIORE: Transitioning from Merchant Miner to Integrated Steel & Minerals Powerhouse

By Rahul Jain

  • Scale-Up in Mining: Iron ore capacity ramped up to 3.86 MTPA with visibility to reach 4.36 MTPA, positioning mining as a high-margin cash engine.
  • Forward Integration via Arjas Acquisition: Strategic acquisition of Arjas Steel marks a shift from merchant mining to integrated steel production, with embedded OEM relationships and SBQ focus.
  • Valuation Reset in Progress: Despite structural upgrades, the stock trades at ~8x EV/EBITDA, offering a rerating opportunity as steel margins expand and loss-making verticals normalise.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: China’s Export Restrictions on Rare Earth Minerals – Key Impact on Korean Companies and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • China’s Export Restrictions on Rare Earth Minerals – Key Impact on Korean Companies
  • Takashimaya (8233 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update
  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Key Questions for TSMC 1Q25 Earnings Conference
  • China Pair Trade: Long SITC Intl (1308 HK), Short OOIL (316 HK)
  • Anglo American: Initiation of Coverage- Copper Production Expansion & Optimization Driving Our Optimism!
  • Intel Offloads Altera Majority Stake At Steep Discount
  • MOIL Ltd: Plans to Double Output Well Supported
  • Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) Concall Highlights: Solid Q4 2024, Growth Unabated In FY25
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (15-Apr-2025): HK Admiralty office floor sells at 17-year low.
  • Associated British Foods: Initiation of Coverage- Automation & Labor Efficiency As A Pivotal Factor Driving Growth!


China’s Export Restrictions on Rare Earth Minerals – Key Impact on Korean Companies

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss some of the key beneficiaries in Korea that could actually stand to gain from such export restrictions. 
  • We also discuss other Korean companies that could be negatively impacted by this move by the Chinese government. 
  • Despite the uncertainties related to China’s export restrictions of rare earths minerals, we do not expect sudden collapse of the entire semiconductor and EVs value-chain in Korea.

Takashimaya (8233 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Total operating revenue for FY02/25 was JPY1.03tn, up 8.5% YoY, with operating profit at JPY57.5bn, up 25.2%.
  • Domestic and Overseas Department Stores, along with Finance and Contract and Design segments, drove YoY revenue and profit growth.
  • FY02/26 forecast anticipates revenue and profit growth, led by Domestic and Overseas Department Store segments, despite some segment challenges.

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Key Questions for TSMC 1Q25 Earnings Conference

By Patrick Liao


China Pair Trade: Long SITC Intl (1308 HK), Short OOIL (316 HK)

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • A “Long SITC Intl (1308 HK), Short OOIL (316 HK)” pair trade should benefit from the more resilient intra-Asia trade and capture the tariff-induced challenges on Trans-Pacific trade. 
  • OOIL derived 28.3% of its volume and 38.7% of its revenue from the Trans-Pacific route in 1Q25. Instead, SITC generated 100% of its revenue from the Asian market.
  • While OOIL’s 0.7x P/B is cheaper than SITC’s 2.5x, its FY25 ROE of 10.6% is lower than SITC’s 34.6%. SITC’s dividend yield is also trending up, against OOIL’s down.

Anglo American: Initiation of Coverage- Copper Production Expansion & Optimization Driving Our Optimism!

By Baptista Research

  • The 2024 results for Anglo American highlight a year marked by strategic shifts and operational execution, albeit with mixed outcomes.
  • Safety remains a priority, yet the company faced three fatalities, underscoring ongoing safety challenges.
  • Leadership changes have impacted the structure, with board addition Anne Wade contributing her expertise to strategic committees.

Intel Offloads Altera Majority Stake At Steep Discount

By William Keating

  • Intel yesterday announced that it was selling a 51% stake of its Altera business to Silver Lake for $4.46 billion
  • The deal values Altera at $8.75 billion, roughly half what Intel paid to acquire the company over a decade ago
  • Altera’s CEO, Intel veteran Sandra Rivera, will be replaced with a new CEO, Raghib Hussain, formerly president of Products and Technologies at Marvell

MOIL Ltd: Plans to Double Output Well Supported

By Rahul Jain

  • MOIL is India’s largest manganese ore producer, contributing over 50% of the country’s production. Its dominant position provides a competitive advantage in meeting domestic demand.
  • Planned a capex of Rs24 billion until FY30. This investment will support brownfield expansions, greenfield projects, and modernization efforts, including shaft-sinking projects at Balaghat and Gumgaon mines.
  • Valuations: Trades at a marginal premium to historic valuations. Debt-free balance sheet, 25yr+ mine life gives confidence over LT execution of expansion plans.

Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) Concall Highlights: Solid Q4 2024, Growth Unabated In FY25

By Sameer Taneja

  • The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM)  reported Q4 2024 revenues/profits of 11.8%/23.5% YoY. Based on current trends, they provided a  outlook for FY25.
  • For FY24, the company reported 13.6%/21.3% YoY revenue/profit growth, led by a 14% YoY expansion in volumes. The company declared a 0.12 peso/share dividend (~4.7% dividend yield).
  • Trading at 10.6x FY24 PE, net cash, >20% ROE, and a 4.7%  dividend yield based on a 50% payout is a structural play on the premiumization of alcohol consumption.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (15-Apr-2025): HK Admiralty office floor sells at 17-year low.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Hong Kong office floor in Admiralty sells at a 17-year low, reflecting challenging market conditions in the region.
  • Brookfield strengthens APAC logistics presence with $588M NZ joint venture, highlighting growth opportunities in the sector.
  • Manulife IM acquires Sydney Logistics Park from KKR and Centennial for $35M, expanding their real estate portfolio in Australia.

Associated British Foods: Initiation of Coverage- Automation & Labor Efficiency As A Pivotal Factor Driving Growth!

By Baptista Research

  • Associated British Foods (ABF) has reported a robust financial performance for the 52 weeks ending 14th September 2024, highlighted by substantial profit and cash flow improvements across its diversified portfolio.
  • Operating profit witnessed a 38% increase, with adjusted earnings per share climbing by 39%.
  • Cash generation rose to GBP 1.4 billion, marking an increase of GBP 1.1 billion from the previous year, which signifies positive operational and financial strides.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Asian Equities: Growth at Reasonable Price After This Dislocation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Asian Equities: Growth at Reasonable Price After This Dislocation
  • Money Forward (3994) | SaaS Is Slowing, But So Is the Price
  • Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia (ISSP IJ) – Piping Hot
  • Birla Opus | Short Term Gain, Long Term Pain
  • Universal Vision Biotechnology (3218 TT): There Are Plenty of Near-Term Pain Points
  • Amgen’s Big Bet on Obesity: Is This the Pharma Giant’s Next Breakout Moment?
  • Steel Authority of India: Weak on Expansion
  • General Motors vs. The Tariff Tsunami: Can The Auto Giant Stay In Gear?
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (14-Apr-2025): Emperor Group’s 62-home project in Sai Ying Pun.
  • Upslope’s Quarterly Investor Letter: 2025-Q1


Asian Equities: Growth at Reasonable Price After This Dislocation

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

  • Rapid changes in US’s tariff policies have driven sharp equity volatility. For instance, since March third week, HSI’s forward PE declined from 11.1x to 9.1x and bounced back to 9.5x.
  • Such severe volatility has opened up interesting investment opportunities in Asia. Screening on strong EPS growth forecasts, high ROE, low PEG, and low debt-equity, we come up with 35 stocks.
  • Our stocks are from China (15), HK (8), Korea (4), India (4), Taiwan (2). Notably, TSMC, SK Hynix, Wuxi AppTec, Galaxy Entertainment, ZTO Express, M&M Finance, Muthoot Finance, Muangthai Capital.

Money Forward (3994) | SaaS Is Slowing, But So Is the Price

By Mark Chadwick

  • Q1 revenue and EBITDA missed expectations, with slowing growth in key business segment and corporate customer adds.
  • Macroeconomic risks, including US tariffs, may be weighing on business confidence and new customer acquisition.
  • Valuation now looks attractive, trading at a steep discount to global peers despite similar fundamentals.

Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia (ISSP IJ) – Piping Hot

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia (ISSP IJ) is Indonesia’s largest steel pipe manufacturer with over 2,000 customers and exposure across diverse sectors, including infrastructure, autos, and Oil & Gas. 
  • The company looks set to book strong growth in revenues and profits over the next 3 years, driven by increased capacity and improving product mix towards higher value products. 
  • SPINDO has been shifting towards longer duration funding and reducing interest costs. Valuations are attractive on a 3x FY2025E PER, with a forecast dividend yield of 5%.

Birla Opus | Short Term Gain, Long Term Pain

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • We interact with our dealer network representing Asian Paints (APNT IN)  and Birla Opus Grasim Industries (GRASIM IN) dealers with an objective to understand the current operating environment.
  • Aggression in a slow-moving market will result in short-term market share gains for players like Birla Opus.
  • While Asian Paints (APNT IN) may appear to lose market share, we believe this would be transient in nature.

Universal Vision Biotechnology (3218 TT): There Are Plenty of Near-Term Pain Points

By Tina Banerjee

  • Universal Vision Biotechnology (3218 TT) is struggling with expansion plans, decelerated revenue growth, and unfavorable revenue mix. 2024 revenue growth of 4% is significant deterioration from 17% reported in 2023.
  • China business remained challenging. In 2024, revenue from China 22% YoY to NT$594M.  Both the number of partnered hospitals and self-operated clinics/hospitals in China decreased during 2024.
  • Through the first three months of 2025, revenue growth has not shown any sign of improvement. 1Q25 revenue grew just 5% YoY to NT$1,123M.

Amgen’s Big Bet on Obesity: Is This the Pharma Giant’s Next Breakout Moment?

By Baptista Research

  • Amgen is rapidly positioning itself as a formidable player in the obesity drug market, a sector that has witnessed explosive growth due to the popularity of GLP-1 based therapies from Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk.
  • The company’s investigational drug MariTide is generating significant interest following promising Phase II results showing up to 20% weight loss with monthly dosing.
  • With two Phase III trials now underway—targeting both diabetic and non-diabetic patients—Amgen is accelerating its strategy to gain a slice of what analysts forecast to be a $100 billion market by 2030.

Steel Authority of India: Weak on Expansion

By Rahul Jain

  • SAIL has been a consistent under-performer despite having huge iron ore reserves, multi-location steel plants and wide product spectrum and exclusive sales to Indian Railways
  • Legacy plants, ageing manpower and operational inefficiencies have resulted in slower growth compared to peers and a significant loss in overall market share, high inventories and single digit RoEs
  • SAIL trades at 0.8x P/B, in line with history, but weak volume visibility and elevated debt warrant a deeper discount—0.6x book better reflects risk-reward, in our view.

General Motors vs. The Tariff Tsunami: Can The Auto Giant Stay In Gear?

By Baptista Research

  • General Motors is facing turbulent headwinds in 2025, driven primarily by a resurgent trade war between the U.S. and Canada.
  • The Detroit automaker recently suspended production at its BrightDrop electric vehicle (EV) plant in Ingersoll, Ontario, triggering nearly 500 indefinite layoffs and marking a significant blow to Canada’s already struggling auto sector.
  • This move comes amid the fallout from President Donald Trump’s 25% tariff on foreign-made cars, which has forced Canada to retaliate with its own 25% duties on U.S.-built vehicles.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (14-Apr-2025): Emperor Group’s 62-home project in Sai Ying Pun.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Emperor Group is consolidating a site in Sai Ying Pun for a 62-home project in Hong Kong, promising a significant development.
  • EQT has appointed a former KKR executive to take charge of their real estate operations in Japan, signaling a strategic move.
  • A prominent mainland tycoon has sold a condo in The Peak for $66 million, marking a significant transaction in the luxury property market.

Upslope’s Quarterly Investor Letter: 2025-Q1

By Upslope Capital Management

  • Q1 was challenging. However, in the two weeks since Mar 31, the world has changed, owing to an intense realignment of global trade policies.
  • This has swiftly aligned markets more with Upslope’s portfolio and approach.
  • April-to-date performance1 has been strong (approx. +7%), leaving the Fund +2% YTD (vs. -12% for the S&P Midcap 400).

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: TSMC Q125 Earnings Preview and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • TSMC Q125 Earnings Preview
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC 1Q25 Results & The 2nm Frontline; Mediatek Vs. TSMC Valuation; PC 1Q25 Data
  • China Healthcare (Apr.13) – Trump’s Tariffs on Pharmaceuticals, NSCEB’s Report, RemeGen’s Pain Point
  • Nippon Parking Development (2353 JP): Irreplaceable Assets with +12% Historical EPS CAGR at 13x P/E
  • Adastria: ¥500 Billion Through New Brands – Signs UK’s Karrimor
  • Kinatico Ltd – SaaS revenue now 50% of total revenue


TSMC Q125 Earnings Preview

By William Keating

  • TSMC reported March 2025 revenues of NT$285.96 billion, up 10% MoM and up 46.5% YoY.
  • Revenue for January through March 2025 totaled NT$839.25 billion, an increase of 41.6% YoY.
  • At the forecasted exchange rate of NT$32.8 to the US$, this translates into Q125 revenues of $25.58 billion, marginally above the guided midpoint of $25.4 billion

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC 1Q25 Results & The 2nm Frontline; Mediatek Vs. TSMC Valuation; PC 1Q25 Data

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC’s Next Leap: 1Q25 Earnings Ahead and the 2nm Frontline
  • Is the Valuation Divergence Justified? Mediatek Vs TSMC Valuation Compared
  • PC 1Q25: 5% YoY Growth but Shipments Inflated Ahead of US Tariffs. Dream of a Refresh Cycle Continue 

China Healthcare (Apr.13) – Trump’s Tariffs on Pharmaceuticals, NSCEB’s Report, RemeGen’s Pain Point

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Trump’s administration will soon impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals. Chinese API companies will be hit the most. Pharmaceutical companies that mainly focus on domestic market could be better investment options.
  • NSCEB released “Changing the Future of Biotechnology”, among which WuXi AppTec was named again. Chinese CXO’s performance this year could be lower than expected due to geopolitical conflicts.
  • RemeGen’s 2024 results improved, but concerns remain due to its  “disorganized” pipeline layout and uncompetitive products. The reasonable market value of Remegen is about RMB10 billion to RMB15 billion.

Nippon Parking Development (2353 JP): Irreplaceable Assets with +12% Historical EPS CAGR at 13x P/E

By Michael Fritzell

  • Nippon Parking Development (2353 JP — US$477 million) — also known as “NPD” — is a Japanese lessor of parking spaces and an operator of ski resorts and theme parks.

  • It’s the brainchild of lifelong entrepreneur Kazuhisa Tatsumi, who literally built the company in his garage in the early 1990s.

  • In Japan, developers are generally required to build 1/3 parking space per 100 square meters of floor area for any large building. This is known as “legally mandated parking space”.


Adastria: ¥500 Billion Through New Brands – Signs UK’s Karrimor

By Michael Causton

  • Adastria (soon to be And ST) is Japan’s biggest multi-chain clothing retailer and fourth largest overall.  
  • As well as investing in core brands like Global Work, the former wholesaler is now expanding through new segments – including Forever 21 despite its US bankruptcy
  • In a sign of further diversification, it will now move into the very buoyant outdoor market having just acquired the Asian rights to UK outdoor brand, Karrimor.

Kinatico Ltd – SaaS revenue now 50% of total revenue

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Kinatico Ltd (ASX:KYP) is a ‘Know Your People’ regtech company providing workforce compliance monitoring and management technology and services.
  • The company has announced that total revenue in Q3 increased 15% to $8.1m, with higher-margin SaaS (Software as a Service) revenue making up 50% of the total.
  • SaaS revenue grew 60% in the quarter on the previous corresponding period (pcp) to $4m and is tracking at $16m on an annualised basis.

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