Equity Bottom-Up

• A recent meeting with Global Digital Niaga (BELI IJ) looking at its longer-term strategy confirmed its differentiated standing, with a keen focus on an omnichannel strategy across key verticals.
• The restructuring of its 1P business is yielding positive returns and higher margins, whilst its 3P business is being driven by strong performance from tiket.com, with offline stores performing well.
• BELI recently opened a new 100,000 sqm distribution centre, which will further underpin its logistics excellence and improve delivery times even further. Valuations are attractive with profitability ahead in FY2025.

• Going into CY25, Nuvama is one of our highest conviction ideas. It has potential to generate 75%+ upside, just from valuation gain.
• India’s wealth management industry is in nascent phase led by under-penetration and a growing affluent, HNI and UHNI clientele.
• Nuvama’s edge is its integrated platform bolstered by technology prowess and a solution-focused approach as opposed to a product-push model. It offers a holistic solution with a robust relationship-driven approach.

• We update our views on ten Japanese midcap banks targeting attractively valued beneficiaries of the realization of big strategic shareholdings, as well as beneficiaries of the improving interest rate outlook
• We re-iterate our buys on Hachijuni Bank and Hokuhoku Financial; there is potential to realize their large strategic holdings relative to their market capitalizations combined with their attractive PTBV ratios
• We take Gunma Bank off the buy list, replacing it with Iyogin; Iyogin has a constructive mix of large strategic holdings, attractive valuations and healthy gearing to higher interest rates

• Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) announced meaningful increase in dividends (including both cash and stock dividends).
• Celltrion will pay out stock dividend of 0.05 for shareholders as of record in 2024, this will be 150% higher than the average stock dividend in the past three years.
• Celltrion will also pay out cash DPS of 750 won for shareholders as of record in 2024, which is more than double the average DPS in the past three years. 

• JD.com is a profitable Chinese e-commerce company trading below its cash value
• Despite challenges in China’s retail market and competition from rivals, JD.com offers a potential 2x-3x upside over the next two years
• Stock has fallen approximately 20% since last write-up, presenting a good opportunity for investors

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• Operating revenue increased by 78.3% YoY to JPY3.3bn, driven by sales of TDM-621 across multiple regions.
• Operating loss narrowed to JPY532mn, with a recurring loss of JPY798mn and a net loss of JPY806mn.
• US sales grew 151.4% YoY, achieving profitability; Europe and Japan also reported significant YoY sales growth.

• Kaspi superapp offers strong growth potential in Kazakhstan and plans for expansion into other countries
• Led by a top-notch management team with significant ownership stake and operates with high margins
• Despite concerns about investing in emerging markets, the authors see Kaspi as a compelling long-term investment opportunity with impressive growth potential

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• Nvidia Corp. on Tuesday asserted its commitment to fair competition, after China’s market regulators opened an antitrust investigation into the U.S. chip giant over suspected violations linked to a 2020 deal.
• The probe, announced on Monday by the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), concerns Nvidia’s compliance with the country’s Anti-Monopoly Law and conditions tied to its $6.9 billion acquisition of Israeli network-equipment maker Mellanox Technologies Ltd.
• The deal — the largest acquisition Nvidia has ever made — faced intense scrutiny from Chinese regulators, who conditionally approved it after nearly a year-long process.

• Samsung Display appoints new VP to lead strategic product realignment, driving focus on key areas.
• BYD expands EV production in Europe, while Gotion aims for battery growth in Morocco and Slovakia.
• Google unveils Gemini 2.0 and next-gen TPU Trillium, ushering in the era of AI agents; Morris Chang shares insights on Intel’s leadership crisis. Samsung shifts 2,000 engineers to Pyeongtaek to tackle HBM hurdles.

• OCI undergoing solvent liquidation process, sparking interest in updating story and economics
• Focus on latest updates on OCI and PF capital structure, equity thesis, credit thesis
• Multiple disposal transactions in past 10 months, including sale of businesses and retaining European nitrogen business

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• Chevron Corporation’s third-quarter 2024 financial results demonstrated a mixture of positive operational achievements and financial headwinds.
• The company reported earnings of $4.5 billion or $2.48 per share, with adjusted earnings similarly at $4.5 billion or $2.51 per share.
• Despite these substantial earnings, this marked a decrease from the prior year largely due to lower liquids realizations and increased depreciation, depletion, and amortization (DD&A), particularly at the Tengizchevroil (TCO) project in Kazakhstan.

• Novanta Inc.’s third quarter of 2024 results reflect a mixed performance driven by a challenging macroeconomic environment, customer-related timing issues, and some positive business developments.
• The company reported revenue of $244 million, an increase of 10% year-over-year, though organic growth was flat.
• Adjusted gross margins were 46%, a slight decline from the previous year due to the dilution from the Motion Solutions acquisition, although core business margins improved by 70 basis points.

• BlackLine’s recent quarterly performance showcases a mix of both robust achievements and ongoing strategic challenges.
• The company, co-led by Owen Ryan and Therese Tucker, has demonstrated its ability to exceed revenue and profitability targets, reflecting effective strategic execution.
• A significant achievement this quarter was the record free cash flow generation, indicating strong financial health and potential for reinvestment in growth initiatives.

• Mediatek’s Apple Watch Win Highlights Smartwatch Market Opportunity; Breakthrough Into Apple’s Supply Chain
• MediaTek’s Role in Apple Watch Connectivity; Mediatek’s TSMC Relationship to Provide a Lasting Advantage
• Mediatek Rallied But Remains Below Highs; Significant Upside Remains — Maintain Structural Long

• Interview with Michael Dell, founder of Dell Technologies, discussing his journey and insights in the tech industry
• Dell started his tech career at a young age, working in a Chinese restaurant and later upgrading computers
• Dell shares his thoughts on entrepreneurship, technology development, and the future impact of AI in various industries

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• International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. (IFF) exhibited robust financial performance in its third quarter of 2024, showcasing a significant upward trend across its business units.
• IFF achieved a notable growth in revenue, surpassing $2.9 billion, reflecting a 9% increase on a comparable, currency-neutral basis.
• This growth was driven by high single-digit to double-digit volume improvements across various segments, notably in the Nourish, Health & Biosciences, Scent, and Pharma Solutions units.

• Marathon Petroleum Corporation reported third quarter earnings per share of $1.87 with a refining utilization rate of 94%.
• The company continues to deliver solid performance in its refining and marketing (R&M) segment, boasting a 96% capture rate, a 2% improvement quarter-over-quarter, reflecting strong commercial performance.
• The refining operating costs were at $5.30 per barrel, a slight increase primarily due to decreased throughputs and higher project expenses linked to intensified turnaround activity.

• NVIDIA Corporation, the global AI and semiconductor powerhouse, has found itself in the crosshairs of China’s antitrust regulators.
• Amid an escalating tech war between the U.S. and China, Beijing’s State Administration for Market Regulation has launched an investigation into NVIDIA’s compliance with antimonopoly laws concerning its $6.9 billion acquisition of Mellanox Technologies in 2020.
• This probe comes on the heels of the U.S. imposing stricter export controls on advanced semiconductor technologies, further intensifying the global tech rivalry.

• Accolade’s recent earnings disclosure offers a comprehensive perspective on its current market positioning and performance, highlighting several important facets relevant to understanding its investment potential.
• The company, which focuses on healthcare advocacy and personalized solutions, detailed its second-quarter fiscal 2025 results, underscoring both areas of confidence and concern for investors.
• Accolade reported quarterly revenue of $106.4 million, exceeding its guided range.

• GlobalFoundries’ third-quarter fiscal year 2024 results provide a comprehensive overview of its financial performance and strategic initiatives.
• The company reported revenue of $1.739 billion for the quarter, reflecting a 7% sequential growth, albeit a 6% decline year-over-year.
• This revenue growth is commendable given the challenging industry conditions with lower factory utilization levels around mid-70s.

• Singapore Post (SPOST SP) is selling its key asset, Australian-based Freight Management Holdings (FMH), for an enterprise value of S$897.6mn, which will generate a gain on disposal of S$312.1mn.
• SingPost will apply the proceeds to paring down its Aussie dollar-denominated debt. SingPost will also consider, in due course, the payment of a special dividend.
• Once the FMH transaction completes, the board will “review and reset the Group’s strategic plan, with a continued focus on shareholder value“.

• Inditex’s rare quarterly miss on sales and profit, driven by currency fluctuations, may heighten sensitivity around Fast Retailing’s upcoming Q1 results
• For Fast, the risk would be a top-line miss given high valuation multiples and elevated expectations
• Over the past several quarters, Fast’s superior top line growth has supported higher valuation multiples. We expect 9% revenue growth in Q1

• AMD’s Lisa Su has been honoured as Time’s CEO of the year, a fitting tribute to a leader who  pulled off what many thought to be impossible
• Despite flawless execution and carving out a brand new $5 billion market segment within AI Acceleration, AMD’s share prices is down 44% from its 52 week high
• AMD will ultimately face headwinds from Arm but, for the time being, their growth will come from continuing to take market share from Intel and building on their Instinct platform 

• We compile our selection of small and mid-cap names with our desired characteristics of high dividend yields, value, and margin of safety.
• Our top picks are Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK), The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM), Taste Gourmet (8371 HK), Uchi Technologies (UCHI MK), and Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM).
• We provide updates on results for our HK-listed universe and highlights from our recent management visits to Hong Kong. 

• Vishal Mega Mart (1620871D IN) IPO worth INR 80 bn is about to open this week. The IPO constitutes entirely of OFS. 
• The company is one of the top 3 offline first retailers, the most diversified retailers and caters to middle income and lower income group, largely in Tier 2 locations. 
• As far as forensics are concerned, one must pay attention to exorbitantly high attrition levels, rising related party transactions, few puzzling line items noticed in books, etc.

• Pou Sheng, the second-largest sporting goods retailer in China, is facing challenges like declining sales
• The company is trading at an undervalued price with a negative EV but remains profitable
• Despite concerns about China’s geopolitical situation and low cash returns, Pou Sheng offers a high dividend yield and has a strong balance sheet with significant net tangible asset value, indicating potential for upside if sales performance improves.

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• BCG is a dominant operator of online classified assets in Lithuania and Estonia, with potential expansion into Latvia
• Despite being in the early stages of monetization, BCG shows strong earnings growth potential and appeals to private equity buyers
• BCG’s focus on generalist and vertical classifieds, with various monetization strategies, positions them well for continued growth and success

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• The author presents an analysis of TAL Education Group, highlighting its low valuation and steady growth among Chinese ADRs
• TAL has a current market cap of $4.5B, net cash of $3.8B, and generated $200m in operating cash flow in the last quarter
• The company is projected to have $4.5B in net cash by the end of 2025, with revenue expected to grow at a 30% CAGR and reach over $2.5B with a 15% operating margin by 2026

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• RaaS is initiating coverage of media group GTN (ASX:GTN) with a base peer EV/EBITDA-derived valuation of $0.81/share, representing potential capital upside of 40% from the current share price, although we suggest premiums of 10% and 20% to the peer average are justified based on GTN’s superior metrics.
• • GTN has seen improved adjusted EBITDA across FY23 (+13.5%) and FY24 (+15%) but the utilisation rate of advertising spots is still below pre-pandemic levels.
• We believe further improvements in utilisation together with some stock-specific cost reductions will drive EBITDA 31% higher in FY25, placing the group on very attractive multiples relative to peers.

• Raksul operates niche B2B online marketplaces in Japan with exceptional shareholder alignment
• Recent dip in stock value due to market trends, but shows promise for 2-4x returns in next two years
• Unique approach to collecting tolls on indirect costs for SMEs in Japan sets them apart in the industry

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• Consistent compounders, stocks with steady earnings growth and excess returns over a long period of time, are difficult to find. It’s even more difficult to find reasonably valued compounders.
• From the universe of large Asian companies, we screen those with steady profit growth (>10%) and excess returns in each of last 10 years and over next three forecast years.
• Our list of 20 inexpensive compounders comprises 10 from onshore China, 5 from HK, 3 from India and 1 each from Japan and the Philippines.

• The Semiconductor industry associations report re-accelerating Semi sales, and increase 2024-25 forecasts. This is due to higher AI / Accelerators, HBM Memory but the rest of the market remains sluggish
• TSMC remains on its high growth plateau at 34% YoY, driven by AI and 3nm. UMC remains on a sluggish recovery at 7% YoY.
• AMD, Nvidia, SK Hynix, TSMC: stocks are not expensive on PE relative to earnings growth. Non-Consensus: we think AMD and SK Hynix are worth a serious look.

• Geely’s sales volume grew by 27% YoY in November 2024.
• BEV delivery growth rate accelerated to 173% YoY in November from 26% YoY in July.
• Geely’s forward financial ratios are lower than its major competitors.

• The Circuit podcast discusses the uncertainty surrounding Intel’s future leadership and strategic direction
• Ben and Jay analyze the board’s role in Intel’s challenges and debate the company’s path forward
• The podcast ends on a hopeful note, with Jay expressing optimism about Intel’s 14A technology and the potential for success in the future

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• TSMC’s November revenue decline was better than expected, poised for nearly 30% annual revenue growth.
• SK Hynix restructures CIS organization to replicate HBM success model, aiming for improved performance.
• TSMC founder sheds light on reasons behind Samsung and Intel’s setbacks, pointing out core issues. YMTC refutes backdoor listing rumors, facing industry scrutiny; while Samsung explores using discrete LPDDR for AI-driven iPhones and China investigates Nvidia amid US-China chip tensions.

• Popular Vehicles and Services (PVSL IN) are available at a 50% discount since IPO and available at 25%
• PVSL plans to enter two new states by June 2025 and open multiple new facilities, including a NEXA Studio and service centers in Maharashtra and Kerala.
• PVSL’s focus on geographic expansion, high-margin segments, and inventory normalization enhances its growth potential, making it a compelling value play with room for significant re-rating in the near future.

• Innova Captab (1605221D IN)’s New Jammu facility to be commercialized by Q3 FY25, expanding capacity and product range.
• Strong order pipeline, diversified segments (CDMO, branded generics), and high-margin segments to drive profitability.
• Aiming for 25-30% revenue CAGR and 4-5% margin expansion in upcoming years.

• Blueprint Medicines Corporation, during its third quarter of 2024 financial results presentation, highlighted both promising developments and ongoing challenges.
• The company reported robust revenue growth, primarily driven by the performance of AYVAKIT, which achieved $128.2 million in net product revenue, marking a 137% year-over-year increase.
• This strong performance led the company to raise its annual revenue guidance to between $475 million and $480 million, positioning AYVAKIT on track for substantial long-term revenue, potentially exceeding $2 billion.

• The funding package between Iluka Resources and the government was finalized, leading to a 10% market decline
• Iluka Resources planned to build a Rare Earths refinery in Enneba with the assistance of a $1.05 billion non recourse loan from the Australian government
• Iluka also had plans to process their Wimmera deposit through the refinery, despite challenges with separation and impurities causing delays in development.

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• Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc. presented a mixed set of results for the third quarter of 2024, reflecting ongoing challenges and some positive developments across its business segments.
• The company reported net sales of $650 million, a 2.8% increase from the previous year on a reported basis, attributed largely to its Clinical Diagnostics segment.
• On a currency-neutral basis, sales increased by 3.4% year-over-year, driven primarily by a 6.4% increase in the Clinical Diagnostics group led by strong demand for quality control products, especially in the Asia Pacific region.

• BYD’s deliveries grew by 68% YoY in November 2024, which provides a positive signal for the whole NEV (New Energy Vehicle) industry.
• In November, Seres’ sales volume increased by 27% YoY with NEV up by 55% YoY.
• Arawana, the top cooking oil producer, finished acquiring 11% of Lihua’s stock.

• Pat Gelsinger took to X to invite us to join him in 24 hours of “praying and fasting” for Intel’s 100k employees to help them navigate “this difficult period”
• This is an unprecedented move never before seen in the semiconductor world, albeit we suspect that IBM may have dabbled in something similar to resurrect their 2nm process prowess
• This coming Thursday is the proposed date. Don’t expect miracles, this could take until the following Monday for the full impact to manifest itself in terms of share price appreciation

• Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) is best positioned to capitalize on the growing market for lab-grown diamonds (LGD) and alter its business growth trajectory.
• LGD disruptions seen in other markets are unlikely to be seen in India due to the positioning of Jewellery in Household asset allocation. 
• We also believe that Trent Ltd (TRENT IN)  LGD potential is underrated while the impact on Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN)  is overrated.

• Sarimelati Kencana PT (PZZA IJ) has been hard hit over the last year by the impact of the boycott due to a perception of its Israel exposure. 
• The company has focused on reducing its cost base over the past year and continued to build its higher-end Ristorante format, with the boycott impact lessening since June 2024.
• PZZA management maintains that it can hit profitability in 4Q2024, with this momentum continuing into 2025, with a target to increase its new formats helping to drive recovery. 

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, $40 price target and projections for JAKKS Pacific after meeting with company management.
• We believe, with easy 1H2025 comparisons, the initial strength of the Moana 2 premiere, a continued focus on key emerging growth drivers (international, ABG collaboration) and basic blocking and tackling, JAKKS is well positioned to continue to drive upside.
• Further, with the company debt free and registering material free cash flow, there remains opportunities to return capital to investors.

• ASKA Pharmaceutical Holdings represents an attractive investment opportunity with substantial upside potential
• The company combines solid growth, strong profitability, and clear avenues for shareholder value enhancement.
• With Nippon Active Value’s increasing involvement and the stock trading at deeply discounted valuations, ASKA is well-positioned for a re-rating.

• LGES takes over GM battery plant in response to Trump’s win, expanding its presence in the US market.
• India establishes a sovereign AI ecosystem, driving ambitions forward for technological advancements in the country.
• Samsung’s One UI 7 Beta introduces AI enhancements and improved security features in anticipation of the Galaxy S25 release.

• In this edition: • ASM International / ASML Holding / BE Semiconductor Industries | brightened outlook for semiconductor equipment sales • Black Friday/Sinterklaas update | fewer debit card payments during Sinterklaas week

• We met with the management of Dream International (1126 HK) on our trip to Hong Kong and summarize our major takeaways. 
• The Plush Toy segment continues to experience growth driven by Disney revenues, but the Plastic Toys segment continues to be plagued by destocking. 
• Despite a 15% YoY earnings decline on our numbers, the stock trades at 5x FY24 PE with an 11.0% dividend yield and 40% of the market cap in net cash. 

Quadrise has made a significant step towards commercialisation, through which its innovative emulsion fuel technology will contribute to the decarbonisation of the marine sector. The company announced that it has signed a Collaboration and Operational Trial Agreement (the project agreement) with MSC Shipmanagement and Cargill, paving the way for the highly anticipated vessel trials on board the MSC Leandra. The market recognised the significance of this agreement, with Quadrise’s stock price rallying by approximately 50% on the day of the announcement.

• TSMC’s N2 Progress Sparks Buzz Amid Yield Improvement Rumors; If True Then 2nm Will Become Even More Successful Than 3nm
• Hon Hai & TASA Showcase Homegrown Space Technologies Including an Alternative to Starlink
• Himax: Buyback Program Lifts Shares; Auto Display Controllers, AR Displays & WLO for AI Progressing 

• Intuitive Surgical, Inc. reported robust third-quarter financial results for 2024, reflecting both significant positive developments and some areas of challenge.
• The company demonstrated strong global growth in its key product lines, particularly the da Vinci systems, which is central to its operation.
• On the positive side, Intuitive displayed robust procedure growth at 18% year-over-year, with contributions especially strong in the U.S., Japan, Germany, France, and the U.K. Notably, the introduction of the da Vinci 5 system, which launched in March 2024, saw promising early adoption with 188 installations and over 12,000 procedures completed.

• Information provided is for informational purposes only, not investment advice
• Author may hold a long position in securities mentioned
• Investors advised to seek professional advice before making investment decisions based on this material

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• EMCOR Group’s third-quarter 2024 results reflect significant revenue growth, robust operating income, and a strong backlog of projects, underscoring its strategic expansion into resilient market sectors.
• The company reported record revenues of $3.7 billion, showing a 15.3% increase year-over-year, and operating income surged by 54.7% to $363.5 million.
• Diluted earnings per share also rose considerably from $3.57 in the third quarter of 2023 to $5.80 this quarter.

• Rubrik, cybersecurity company and leader in the segment of enterprise backup and recovery software solutions, delivered a high quality beat and raise in 3QFY25.
• Stock indicated up 20%+ during regular trading session on heavy volume. Rubrik raised guidance for FY25 total revenue to $861M at the midpoint, implying ~37% growth.
• Moreover, the company generated positive FCF, achieved strong growth at scale and surpassed $1B+ in subscription ARR, a big milestone.

• Lancaster Colony Corporation reported its fiscal year 2025 first-quarter results, showing modest growth with some challenges.
• Consolidated net sales increased by 1.1% to a record $467 million, while gross profit rose by 1.9% to $111 million.
• A key highlight was the record gross profit, marking positive operational efficiency, although the operating income decreased slightly due to higher selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses.

• We view China National Building Material (3323 HK)‘s proposal to buy back 9.98% of H-shares as a good opportunity for the shareholders to cash out in their position.
• Without further significant government stimulus, CNBM will find it difficult to return to the HK$4.03 offer price. Potential weak FY24 results also mean downside risks.
• Other companies with high gearing and low P/B may follow CNBM’s move. We single out the infrastructure construction companies as the likely candidates.

• WSTS is revising up Semiconductor demand for 2024 and 2025, AI demand higher than expected. Taiwan AI Server ODM revenues are still booming, impressive numbers.
• Samsung and SK Hynix expediting new LPDDR “In Memory Processing” for Nvidia in 2026. TSMC forecast AI demand 3x increase to 2026.
• Intel 18A low yield and low density brings new light on management reshuffle. TSMC N2 is ~20% ahead. Apple trying its own 5G modem, again.

• Intapp, Inc. concluded its fiscal first quarter of 2025 on a strong note, showcasing substantial growth in cloud annual recurring revenue (ARR) and laying a strong foundation for future expansion.
• A key highlight was the 27% year-over-year growth in cloud ARR, reaching $309 million, which now comprises 74% of the company’s total ARR of $417 million.
• SaaS revenue also increased by 30% year-over-year to $77 million, driving total revenue up by 17% to $119 million.

• TSMC: +23.5% Premium; Decent Level to Short Relative to Historical Trading Range
• UMC: +0.1% Premium; Middle of the Historical Trading Range; Short Interest Rises Again
• ASE: +3.5% Premium; Near Middle of Recent Range, Wait for Better Levels

• While the overall market continues to hit All-time High almost every other day, Lulu has been battling the skeptics for much of this year.
• There is still a long way to go, but with the stock now up almost 50% over the last three months, Mr. Market has likely started acknowledging that the bear narratives perhaps went a bit too far.
• Glancing through the numbers for 3Q’24 may seem eerily similar to 2Q’24, but management’s tone was much more upbeat in tonight.

• JB Financial is a Korean regional bank involved in traditional banking services such as mortgage loans, auto loans, and asset management
• The bank has a stable performance with a 10-12% return on common equity and a strong 12.5% CET1 ratio, but trades at a low valuation of .56xTBV and 4-5x earnings
• Activist fund Align Partners has influenced JB’s capital allocation decisions, advocating for buybacks and higher capital returns, while the bank offers a significant 6.6% dividend that has been growing at a double-digit rate

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Company is marginally profitable and owns a portfolio of securities (mostly public stocks) and rental real estate worth ~3x its market cap (~¥18,000 /share vs ¥6,000 stock price).

• These figures assign zero value to the operating business and its fixed assets.

• Activist investor is the #1 shareholder with a 17.4%. #2 shareholder owns 11% and will likely align with activist. Insiders don’t own enough to easily block future activism.

• Marvell Technology Inc. reported its third quarter of fiscal year 2025 earnings, indicating a mix of positive growth and strategic shifts.
• The company’s revenues reached $1.516 billion, exceeding guidance by $66 million and showing a 19% sequential increase, driven by heightened demand in the AI sector and strong execution.
• On a year-over-year basis, revenue grew by 7%, marking a return to growth, with data center applications, notably in AI, accounting for 73% of total revenues.

• Descartes Systems Group reported solid third-quarter financial performance, showcasing significant growth in revenue and adjusted EBITDA, while expanding its portfolio through strategic acquisitions.
• The company registered a 17% increase in total revenues compared to the same period last year, driven by a combination of organic growth and successful incorporation of newly acquired businesses.
• Organic revenue growth stood at approximately 10%, reinforcing the company’s ability to enhance its offering within existing operations.

• Dollar Tree’s third-quarter fiscal 2024 results reflect both advancements and challenges as it navigates a changing retail landscape and continues its strategic transformation.
• The company reported consolidated net sales of $7.6 billion, marking a 3.5% year-on-year increase.
• This was largely driven by stronger performances in their Dollar Tree and Family Dollar segments, both of which experienced improved sequential comparable sales.

• Bumble, the parent company of the popular dating app, recently released its third-quarter earnings for 2024.
• The results reflect a mixed quarter where Bumble managed to meet its revenue expectations but still operates within the challenges of an evolving business.
• On the positive side, Bumble achieved total revenue of $274 million, which, while representing a slight 1% decline, fell within the provided outlook range.

• Core & Main, a leader in the water infrastructure sector, reported strong fiscal 2024 third-quarter results, demonstrating both growth and resilience amidst challenging conditions.
• The company achieved record quarterly sales exceeding $2 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $277 million, driven by a combination of organic growth and strategic acquisitions.
• Sales grew by nearly 12%, reflecting both the company’s expansion efforts and robust demand across its core markets.

• Hormel Foods Corporation recently held its fourth quarter earnings call, delivering a mix of positive developments and some areas of concern.
• The company’s financial performance in fiscal 2024 reflected its strategic shift and operational initiatives, which helped manage a challenging macroeconomic environment and exhibited the resilience of its portfolio and team.
• From a positive perspective, Hormel Foods reported a year of solid execution of its strategic initiatives, which included introducing innovative products across its portfolio, expanding its market presence, and reinvesting in its well-established brands like Hormel Black Label, Jennie-O, SPAM, and Applegate.

• Five Below recently announced its third quarter results for fiscal year 2024, reflecting a blend of positive strides and ongoing challenges.
• The company reported a 15% increase in sales, reaching $844 million, slightly surpassing its guidance with a comparable sales growth of 0.6%.
• Adjusted earnings per share stood at $0.42, an improvement over the previous year.

• Steady loss of market share to AMD in x86 PC and Server. Single design win for the GPU Max, overall no AI or Accelerator roadmap.  
• Steady deterioration of the financials. Collapse in NON-GAAP Operating Profits, leading to negative Free Cash Flow, leading to increasing Net Debt. 
• Most damaging, IMO was during 3Q24 conference call (1st Nov 2024) when the CFO David Zinsner said: don’t expect a recovery before 2026. CEO Gelsinger was gone 1 month later. 

• BYD’ deliveries continued to grow strongly by 68% in November.
• BYD required its suppliers to reduce prices by 10% for 2025.
• We believe BYD will continue the price war in 2025.

• If you haven’t heard the news, Pat Gelsinger is “retiring.” The reality is this was not a retirement but a firing of Pat.
• His brief stint of 1386 days was surprising because not only was he the most technically competent CEO of the last few bad apples at Intel, but he was also among the shortest.
• Pat has by no means been perfect, and the conference at UBS kind of showed the frustrations that the board likely had with Pat.

• Home improvements player PT Daya Intiguna Yasa (Mr DIY Indonesia) completed the book building for its IPO this week for its Jakarta listing where it seeks to raise US$296m. 
• Mr DIY  has seen a rapid rollout of outlets with over 900 stores across Indonesia and SSSG over the last two years of 30%-40% and the company is already profitable. 
• Mr DIY  has a 25% market share of the home improvements segment focusing on the mass market with affordable products. Prefer Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia as a proxy for this space.

• RHB Bank is our Malaysian bank top pick, with its real turnaround potential for returns; CIMB remains a buy but is less compelling than RHB given its marked re-rating year-to-date
• Our new buy RHB Bank is stand-out value versus its Malaysian peers and it is improving returns from low levels; its main delinquency challenges are concentrated in small overseas portfolios
• We reiterate our buy on CIMB; management continues to drive credit quality with cost of risk improvements, and we see potential for operating efficiency gains, combined with its attractive valuations

• Apple’s Intelligence service is working towards a launch in China, but is facing challenges with integrating Baidu.
• NXP may be investing a significant amount of money in Karnataka, India.
• Intel’s interim leadership team is bringing together new ideas and industry experience for a promising future, while South Korea and Japan work to mitigate US export controls on HBM.

• Tesla has shortened its supplier payment cycle to about 90 days in 2024, continuing to outpace rivals in financial efficiency and supplier relations.
• Tesla’s Shanghai factory, where 95% of parts are sourced locally, reflects the company’s deep integration with China’s supply chain.
• The move highlights Tesla’s unique approach to balancing cost-cutting and supplier support in an industry under strain from intense competition, price wars and shifting dynamics between automakers and parts providers.

• In this edition: • Shell | gas joint venture with Equinor in the UK • InPost | Yodel hit by festive capacity crisis • BAM Group | awarded contracts for HS2 in the UK • Black Friday update | Cyber Monday was the busiest day for the parcel logistics providers

• • Three intervals in the Reifling formation (1324 m – 1340 m, 1346 m – 1351 m and 1358 m -1382 m MD) were perforated but only limited inflow was determined.
• No fluid could reach the surface after the well was shut in.
• • Sampling of the well indicated only completion brine (not reservoir fluid) and fine solid particles of unknown origin.

• MDV revised down its full-year FY24 guidance (discussed in more details on p.5) given the Q3 result [Q1~Q3 gross profit [GP] of ¥3,055mil (-12.8% YoY), operating loss of -¥140mil (vs FY23 Q3 OP of ¥1,111mil) on sales of ¥4,125mil (-8.1% YoY)], due to (1) the delay to the onboarding of the firm’s cloud-based health check system solution Alpha Salus as the debugging process continued through to September, and (2) a delay in mobilising potential users of the new content (no-contact vital sensing for cats) for MDV’s personal health management app Karteco, as the planned large-scale advertising campaign was pushed back following a delay in the launch of the content.
• The firm is guiding for FY24 annual dividend of ¥6.5/share (unchanged from FY23) and generates a dividend pay-out ratio of 138.0% based on the revised FY24 EPS forecast of ¥4.71.

• NIO (NIO US) is a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer listed across three exchanges. 
• NIO will likely struggle to reignite its growth with its three-brand strategy in a fiercely competitive market. Its promise to reach breakeven in 2026 is likely to be broken.  
• NIO’s valuation is stretched as it trades at a material premium to median Chinese EV peers’ EV/Sales and growth-adjusted EV/Sales multiples. 

• Shiseido’s stock price has dropped 70% from its post-pandemic peak, presenting a buying opportunity amid ongoing industry challenges.
• The company’s two-year action plan aims to restore profitability through aggressive cost-cutting and restructuring measures.
• Successful execution could drive significant upside, while failure may attract acquisition interest due to Shiseido’s strong Asia-Pacific brand presence.

• Northvolt was once seen as Europe’s battery champion but faced challenges with management, safety standards, reliance on foreign machinery, and misuse of capital
• Northvolt filed for bankruptcy after facing issues with production output, leading to job cuts and a strategic review to restructure the company. Investors like Goldman Sachs wrote down their investments in Northvolt to zero, raising questions about the future of battery making in Europe.
• Investors like Goldman Sachs wrote down the value of their Northvolt investments to zero.

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• Implementation of SEBI’s new F&O circular to remove weekly option contracts, is expected to significantly impact BSE’s market share in derivatives. 
• The new F&O circular is anticipated to considerably affect BSE’s topline and bottom line. Management believes the initiatives will ultimately enhance market efficiency and benefit investors. 
• With removal of weekly contracts, it is expected that volumes will increase in existing contracts, which will benefit more to BSE vs NSE. 

• Janux Therapeutics has taken the biopharmaceutical industry by storm with its recent announcement of groundbreaking results from its Phase 1 clinical trial of JANX007, a tumor-activated T-cell engager targeting advanced prostate cancer.
• The data reveals a stunning 100% PSA50 response rate among heavily pretreated patients, with 63% achieving PSA90 and 31% achieving PSA99—a significant milestone in prostate cancer treatment.
• The company has prioritized the development of second- and third-line therapies for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC), aiming to address a substantial unmet need in oncology.

• The core business continues to perform well  with a growing  order backlog
• Due to the company’s historical issues it has hugely underperformed its smaller peers
• The disconnect from the oil price provides  asymmetric upside once the overhang clears

• Business Breakdowns series delves into SpaceX with investor Luke Ward from Bailey Gifford
• Focus on SpaceX’s business model, cost curve of launches, and potential future of the space economy
• SpaceX is a business and technology innovator, with a focus on economic sustainability and funding additional technology innovation to expand market capabilities, such as with Starlink.

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• Sales increased 3.6% YoY to JPY26.1bn, while operating profit decreased 25.3% YoY to JPY1.2bn.
• Japan segment sales rose 4.2% YoY to JPY23.2bn, driven by inbound demand and higher unit prices.
• SG&A expenses grew 4.1% YoY to JPY16.5bn, with a 0.4pp increase in the SG&A ratio to 63.3%.

• Workman was a purveyor of durable gear for workers in jobs like construction but then had the brilliant idea to transpose that expertise to create activewear like Decathlon.
• This was working well but then it decided to take on the likes of Fast Retailing and Shimamura by moving into casual clothing.
• Since then, same-store sales growth has been negative in many months and profits have fallen. The outlook is increasingly poor.

• General Motors (GM) is navigating turbulent waters as it steers towards an electric vehicle (EV)-focused future.
• Recent developments, such as the sale of its stake in a Michigan battery cell plant for $1 billion to LG Energy Solution, underline GM’s efforts to streamline its operations and adapt to evolving market conditions.
• Meanwhile, the company announced a significant write-off of $2.8 billion for its Chinese joint venture with SAIC Motor and an additional $2.7 billion restructuring charge to address declining profitability in one of its largest markets.

• De Grey acquiring Northern Star for $5 billion
• Northern Star issuing new shares to De Grey shareholders
• Transformational deal with potential for future spin-offs and M&A opportunities

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• Robosense Technology (2498 HK) has seen its sales of LiDAR solution systems grow substantially as it achieved the ability to mass produce for its customers.
• The company integrates proprietary hardware and software, creating a barrier to entry for most LiDAR competitors, who produce only the hardware system.
• Robosense announced a strong set of results for 3Q24 and expects to be profitable at some time in 2025.  The company has been actively buying back shares.
  

• Kioxia is planning to offer its IPO on 18 December 2024.  This Insight profiles Kioxia and its market.
• NAND flash, Kioxia’s product, is a commodity, and that results in dramatic price, revenue, and margin swings.
• Kioxia is in a joint venture that provides excellent scale economies which are offset by a supply agreement that amplifies troubles caused by oversupplies

• Artificial intelligence granted sovereign status, with autonomous decision-making capabilities, gaining power and authority.
• Fujifilm Taiwan expands by building a new plant in Hsinchu, while ASM grows in proximity to TSMC and suppliers in Taiwan.
• China issues a warning to Biden and Trump with an export ban on gallium and germanium, impacting US industries; Marvell sees strong 3Q24 results boosted by high demand for AI silicon.

• Rain Industries (RINDL IN) is the largest player of CTP and 2nd largest player of CPC in the world delivering loss due to downcycle in industry.
• CAQM enabled the import of GPC and CPC improved the pricing and demand further and also has created an opportunity for Rain Industries to ramp up its SEZ plant.
• Rain Industries is pivoting to future-ready sectors like EVs and batteries while addressing cyclical challenges. Focused debt reduction and strategic investments enhance its long-term growth potential despite near-term pressures.

• Gelsinger’s IDM 2.0 strategy will be up for debate by Intel’s BoD. Most likely it will be largely scaled back 
• The new CEO’s options will be limited by the legal agreements in place with Brookfield & Apollo, along with the restrictions imposed by the US DOC 
• Possible CEO candidates are the current Globalfoundries CEO, Tom Caulfield, former Intel board member Lip-Bu Tan and former Intel executive Stacy Smith, who recently joined Intel’s BoD

• GEM banks Bradesco, Hana and Bank of Baroda are buys due to deep value with positive returns catalysts; the sell on premium-valued Nubank is due to fundamental return headwinds emerging
• In the Japanese banks we identify Mizuho and Resona as key beneficiaries of higher benchmark rates going forward, alongside very attractive valuations and supported by strategic share portfolios
• CME Group is our 2025 pick in global exchanges, as a flow monster with a very strong competitive position; PagSeguro is the deep value, contrarian pick in payments

• Headline profit numbers for FY24 indicate a 38-40% decline from 110 mn HKD in FY23 to 65-69 mn HKD, including non-cash impairment/property revaluation losses amounting to 44.2 mn HKD. 
• The implication is that core profits would have been 109-113 mn HKD for FY24; a slight earnings growth at the upper end is admirable in a weak HK demand environment.
• Based on core earnings, the stock trades at 6x PE, >67% of the market capitalization in cash, and a 10% dividend yield. The company will release earnings on December 16th.

• Key regional partner for Veldona; a good start for Ainos’ out-licensing strategy.
• Ainos entered a strategic partnership with Taiwan Tanabe Seiyaku for Veldona in Sjogren’s syndrome.
• Under a memorandum of understanding (MOU), the collaboration aims to advance Veldona development by leveraging Taiwan Tanabe’s established expertise in drug manufacturing and Taiwan market promotion. 

• Aegis Logistics is India’s leading logistics player in Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG/Propane) and Chemicals.
• It has demonstrated a stellar track record over past decade, delivering a 25% CAGR in EBITDA and Net profit, along with a 28% CAGR in dividend payouts.
• Given the strength of its partnership with Vopak and various capital expenditure lined up in medium term, it should continue to deliver robust operational and financial performance.