Australia

• On 22 August, the Psc Insurance (PSI AU) IE considered Ardonagh’s A$6.19 offer fair and reasonable as it is within the A$5.69 to A$6.65 valuation range. 
• The offer is conditional on shareholder approval of the scheme. No disinterested shareholder holds the 25% blocking stake. The scheme meeting is on 26 September.
• The offer is attractive and represents an all-time high. At the last close and for the 11 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.3%/12.1%.

• Iron ore futures rose 5.3% last week but declined 3% on September 2nd, signaling a potential continuation of the downtrend.
• Technical indicators such as RSI, MACD, and Bollinger Bands suggest a short-term downtrend, with price struggling to break above the 21-day moving average.
• Elevated historical volatility near a 4-month high indicates that market instability may persist, suggesting caution in trade setups.

• Back on the 8th May, PSC Insurance (PSI AU), a diversified insurance service provider, entered into a Scheme with Ardonagh Group, at A$6.19/share, in cash.
• That’s a 27.6% premium to undisturbed, and a lifetime high. Directors and key executives holding ~39.6% of shares out, are supportive. 
• The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting to be held on the 26th September. Expected implementation on the 11 October. The IE says fair & reasonable.

• Despite sharp price moves, iron ore options activity was muted with a sharp decline in put volumes.
• The DCE/SGX spread widened from 4.6% to 7.5% as DCE futures traded at a premium.
• SGX Iron Ore options volume fell by 31.8% WoW, with increased call activity focused on September expiries at the 105 strike.

• Iron ore futures surged 5.3% last week but fell 3% on September 2nd, reflecting uncertain price sentiment.
• Chinese portside inventories rose by 3.4 million tons, reaching a two-year high, driven by high arrivals and reduced pick-up volumes.
• Heading into peak consumption season in China, supply headwinds may drive sentiment rather than demand tailwinds.

The publication of the results of its initial scoping study on the Tunkillia project on 16 July puts Barton well on the road to executing its three-phase development strategy to achieve c 150,000oz gold production. The study posited a 5Mtpa bulk open-pit mine operating over 6.4 years to process 30.7Mt of material at an average grade of 0.93g/t Au to generate a pre-tax NPV7.5 of A$512m and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 40% at a gold price of A$3,500/oz, an average all-in sustaining cost of A$1,917/oz and an initial capital cost of A$374m. Barton is now advancing an optimisation review targeting further cost savings and mine life growth.

• RaaS Research Group has published an update report on data analytics company Pureprofile (ASX:PPL) following the release of its audited FY24 accounts which includes confirmation that it delivered a maiden reported NPAT of $0.1m, and an adjusted NPAT of $1.26m, up 25% on the pcp and ahead of our forecast for $1.17m.
• Adjusted EBITDA for FY24 was $4.4m, down 4% on the pcp, but up 8% excluding the impact of cash short-term-incentive (STI) payments to executives.
• We note EBITDA was slightly ahead of our forecast for $4.3m and within the company’s guidance range of $4.1m to $4.5m.

• Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) reported a revenue/profit number of 8%/15%, with profits 8% lower than our expectations because of higher depreciation. 
• The company guided a mid-point iron ore shipment of 195 million tons (Vs. 192 in FY24) and a capex of 3.2 bn USD in metals/500 mn USD in Green Energy.
• Trading at 6.7x PE with a 10% dividend yield (trailing) with iron ore prices averaging 118 USD in FY24, the focus shifts to a scenario analysis for FY25. 

• Minres reported full year results, leading to a 10% drop in share price and a 50% decline since May
• Company’s balance sheet is a concern due to exposure to the cyclical nature of the mining industry and risky investments in lithium
• Analysts are nervous about the company’s direction and future prospects, particularly with over $3 billion in capex invested in projects like Onslow

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• With 2 days left to review cutoff, there could be 1 inclusion and 3 deletions for the index at the September rebalance.
• Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 4.4% and a round-trip trade of A$212m.
• The final list of inclusions/exclusions will depend on price movements till Friday and whether the index provider makes any significant changes to the free float of stocks in the universe.

• Paladin and Fission uranium corp are in the process of trying to lock in a script merger
• The date of the Paladin Fission scheme vote has been extended to September 9
• Two thirds of votes cast in favor are needed for the merger to proceed

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• The review period for the September rebalance ends on 30 August. We do not see any constituent changes for the index but there will be capping changes.
• Home Consortium Ltd (HMC AU) is just outside inclusion zone at the moment and outperformance over the rest of the week could result in inclusion.
• Home Consortium Ltd (HMC AU)‘s inclusion and capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 5% and in a round-trip trade of A$62m. 

• Iron ore prices rebounded strongly last week and continued rising this week, reversing losses from the previous week’s 9% decline
• Chinese portside inventories of iron ore fell by 2.48 million tons in August, signaling strong demand despite slower drawdowns in the final weeks
• SGX Iron Ore options saw a 20.7% decline in volume last week, with a sharp increase in the put/call ratio from 1.56 to 2.35, indicating increased bearish sentiment

New data were revealed from Actinogen Medical’s ongoing analysis of the now-completed XanaCIDD study that support the view that the company’s lead drug candidate, Xanamem, may provide consistent and durable benefits in treating depression symptoms compared to placebo. The XanaCIDD study was designed to assess a 10mg daily dose of Xanamem versus placebo in patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) over a six-week treatment period. In line with the top-line results reported on 12 August, the new data confirm that maximal treatment effects on depression on all endpoints occurred at week 10, or four weeks after the end of the six-week treatment period. The results appear to be consistent with the molecule having a durable clinical effect in terms of controlling brain cortisol and potentially exerting anti-depressant activity.

• RaaS has published an update report on Know Your People’ regtech company, Kinatico (ASX:KYP) following its FY24 results in which the company reported FY24 adjusted NPAT of $1.0m, a 32% increase on FY23 and c.70% ahead of our forecast for $0.6m.
• Particularly pleasing in the result was the conversion of EBITDA to operating cashflow, with the metric rising to 92% in FY24, compared with 85% in FY23 and 60% two years ago.
• The results were ahead of our forecasts and reflect the continued migration of existing customers from one-off transactional revenue to ongoing subscription for its compliance monitoring platform.

• Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU) announced 65% YoY revenue growth to A$364M and reversed a loss with A$29.7M net profit in 1H24.
• The U.S. sales from Illuccix was the main driver with a 64% YoY increase in revenue to A$359M (~$243M), reflecting continued growth in sales volume and market share gains.
• Telix reaffirms its full year 2024 revenue guidance of $490–$510M (A$745–776M), up 48–54% YoY. R&D expenditure guidance for 2024 remains at 40–50% increase on 2023.

• Clarity Pharmaceuticals Ltd (CU6 AU) received FDA fast track designation for its lead candidate 64Cu-SAR-bisPSMA for PET imaging of prostate cancer lesions. Currently, 64Cu-SAR-bisPSMA is in phase 3 trial.
• If approved, 64Cu-SAR-bisPSMA has the potential the best-in-class diagnostic as the product has improved lesion detection capability compared to existing prostate cancer diagnostics.
• Clarity’s copper platform, strong prostate pipeline and therapeutic and diagnostic efficacy data represents an attractive opportunity to grow a significant radiopharmaceutical franchise in oncology and other indications.

• Blackwater sell down to Nippon and Jfezenhe Steel for US 1.08 billion upfront
• Deal includes selling 30% of Blackwater, reducing net debt by 150 million and potential future contingent payments
• Transaction costs and transition costs higher than expected, but deal significantly impacts balance sheet and future cash flow

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

While the results from Actinogen’s XanaCIDD exploratory Phase IIa study in patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) did not meet the primary endpoint in terms of improving cognitive impairment (CI) symptoms, they did show signs of efficacy in terms of treating depression symptoms. Notably, a statistically significant improvement was reported at four weeks after the six-week treatment period. The company’s strategy in MDD will now focus on treating depression symptoms and Actinogen will investigate the path forward for a Phase IIb trial that could start as early as H2 CY25. As our model now reflects the larger target market of treating symptoms of depression (versus CI) in MDD, our risk-adjusted net present value rises to A$603m (vs A$544m previously).

• Back on the 22 May, global travel outfit Webjet (WEB AU)  announced it was exploring the separation of its two divisions – Webjet and Webjet B2C – via a demerger. 
• If the demerger is implemented, shareholders will receive one Webjet B2C share for every Webjet share; plus retain their existing shares in Webjet (to be renamed WEB Travel Group).
• A demerger booklet has been dispatched, with a 17th September vote on the in-specie distribution. If approved, WEB Travel (ex-entitlement) and Webjet B2C commence trading on the 23rd September.  

• With 2 trading days left in the review period, there could be 30 adds/deletes across the S&P/ASX family of indices in September.
• Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&P/ASX 200 and S&P/ASX 300.
• The forecast adds have hugely outperformed the forecast deletes. Borrow recall on the deletes and increased borrow availability on the adds could result in underperformance following announcement of the changes.

• Company had strong half year results with 990 million in operating EBITDA and 420 million NPAT
• They have 1.55 billion in cash and are debt-free, with majority of revenue from thermal coal production
• Despite recent 20% drop in share price, company is on track and has good long-term prospects

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.