Category

Australia

Oct 22
0

Daily Brief Australia: OZ Minerals Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • OZ Minerals – Circumstances May Merit a Revised Tilt

OZ Minerals – Circumstances May Merit a Revised Tilt

By Travis Lundy

  • Copper is widely recognised to be in somewhat short supply, and EV/electrification would increase demand going forward (though slower Chinese homebuilding would soften it).
  • A number of developments suggest a further squeeze in prices could be near and copper price strength along with AUD weakness makes an AUD-denominated OZL Takeover Price easier to raise.
  • Short-Term positioning and longer-term supply constraints are currently battling for near-term import, but medium-term, there’s no escaping the imbalance. Looks like a buy now.

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Oct 19
0

Daily Brief Australia: Tyro Payments and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tyro Payments In Talks With Westpac
  • Tyro Confirms Westpac as One of the Interested Suitors

Tyro Payments In Talks With Westpac

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 8 September, payment provider Tyro Payments (TYR AU) rejected a proposal from a Potentia-led consortium at A$1.27/share, by way of a Scheme. 
  • Tyro has now announced it has received approaches from several parties, including Westpac (WBC AU). “None of these approaches are sufficiently definite … to warrant further disclosure at this time“.
  • Shares are currently trading at A$1.59/share. Tyro recently raised its FY23 EBITDA guidance to A$28mn-34mn, up from A$23mn-29mn. 

Tyro Confirms Westpac as One of the Interested Suitors

By Arun George

  • Tyro Payments (TYR AU) confirmed that it has “received approaches from several parties expressing interest in a potential change of control transaction, including Westpac Banking (WBC AU).”
  • Tyro previously rejected a A$1.27 offer from the Potentia consortium. Grok’s get-out clause with Potentia sets the floor price of a competing bid at A$1.52 per share.
  • The last close of A$1.59 is higher than the floor price. Triangulating the value of a rival bid across several data points suggests a competing offer of around A$2.

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Oct 12
0

Daily Brief Australia: PTB Group Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • PTB Scheme Meeting on 16 November

PTB Scheme Meeting on 16 November

By Arun George

  • PTB Group Ltd (PTB AU)‘s scheme meeting is on 16 November. The IE considers the offer of A$1.595 + dividend up to A$0.03 per share (total of A$1.625) fair.  
  • The key condition is approval from shareholders – headcount test and approval by at least 75% of the votes cast on the resolution. The two largest shareholders will vote YES.
  • We continue to think that offer is attractive. At the last close price and for the 9 December payment, the gross and annualised spread is 2.2% and 13.8%, respectively.

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Oct 10
0

Daily Brief Australia: Link Administration and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Deals Digest (09 Oct) – Betagro, Link Admin, Tyro, MACA, Eagle Cement, O2Micro, SMG

Weekly Deals Digest (09 Oct) – Betagro, Link Admin, Tyro, MACA, Eagle Cement, O2Micro, SMG

By Arun George

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Oct 06
0

Daily Brief Australia: Link Administration and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Link’s Ongoing Overtures from DND Underscore Its Value
  • StubWorld: Link And D&D Continue Negotiations On Unlisted Ops

Link’s Ongoing Overtures from DND Underscore Its Value

By Arun George

  • Dye & Durham/DND is a persistent bidder and returned with a A$1.27 billion bid for Link Administration (LNK AU)’s CM and BCM businesses. The Board will update next week. 
  • The latest offer is attractive but curiously, contradicts DND’s previous comments that the FCA would make it challenging to distribute any part sale proceeds.
  • Despite the overhang from the FCA fine, DND’s ongoing persistence and the Board’s potential in-specie distribution of the PEXA Group (PXA AU) stake highlight the underlying value.

StubWorld: Link And D&D Continue Negotiations On Unlisted Ops

By David Blennerhassett

  • In a Musk/Twitter-like on/off/on-again situation, Link Administration (LNK AU) announced it received an improved offer for its corporate markets and Banking & Credit Management (BCM) businesses from Dye & Durham.
  • Separately, Link is working with the Australian Tax Office on the in-specie distribution of a minimum of 80% of Link’s holding into PEXA Group (PXA AU).
  • Preceding my comments on Link are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

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Oct 02
0

Daily Brief Australia: Tassal, Monadelphous and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tassal Scheme Meeting on 3 November
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: S&P/ASX, China A50, SET50, Bilibili, Leapmotor, Onewo, CALB

Tassal Scheme Meeting on 3 November

By Arun George

  • Tassal (TGR AU)‘s scheme meeting is scheduled for 3 November. The IE considers the A$5.23 per share offer fair and reasonable.
  • The key condition is approval from shareholders – headcount test and approval by at least 75% of the votes cast on the scheme resolution. Cooke has received FIRB approval.
  • We continue to think that offer is attractive. At the last close price and for the 21 November implementation date, the gross and annualised spread is 1.2% and 8.8%, respectively.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: S&P/ASX, China A50, SET50, Bilibili, Leapmotor, Onewo, CALB

By Brian Freitas

  • Last week we had the implementation of the first two tranches of the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) rebalance with the third tranche to be implemented at the close on Monday.
  • Thursday saw the NIFTY indices implementation while Friday marked the end of the review period for the December rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices.
  • There were large inflows to China, Taiwan, Korea and Hong Kong ETFs during the week while there were some outflows from Japan.

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Sep 28
0

Daily Brief Australia: MACA Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • MACA’s A$1.075 Offer from Theiss Declared Unconditional
  • MACA: Thiess Declares Offer Unconditional

MACA’s A$1.075 Offer from Theiss Declared Unconditional

By Arun George

  • Theiss’ offer of A$1.075 per share for MACA Ltd (MLD AU) has been declared unconditional despite acquiring 44.30% of outstanding shares, below the 50% threshold.
  • The offer has met with resistance from retail shareholders as it remains below NRW’s rejected offer, and there is a lack of clarity on franking credits. 
  • Thiess can restart on-market purchases from 27 September. The offer closes on 7 October. The shares are trading in line with the offer.

MACA: Thiess Declares Offer Unconditional

By David Blennerhassett

  • Diversified contractor MACA Ltd (MLD AU) announced a friendly off-market cash offer from fellow contractor Thiess on the 26 July, at A$1.025/share, a 28.1% premium to the undisturbed price.  
  • After MACA rejected NRW Holdings (NWH AU)‘s non-binding proposal (with an implied consideration of $1.085/share), Thiess lifted its all-cash Offer to A$1.075/share. NRW subsequently walked.
  • The Offer was conditional on Thiess having a relevant interest in more than 90% of MACA. That condition has been waived and the Offer is now Unconditional.

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Sep 22
0

Daily Brief Australia: Link Administration and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • But Wait … Even More Penalties In The Link Admin/D&D Situation

But Wait … Even More Penalties In The Link Admin/D&D Situation

By David Blennerhassett

  • Earlier this week, Link Administration (LNK AU) rejected Dye & Durham’s revised proposal to factor in any redress payments from the UK’s FCA in regards to the Woodford Fund.
  • FCA has now assessed an appropriate penalty of £50mn in addition to the previously announced restitution payment of £306.1mn.
  • The FCA is all but telegraphing it will default LFSL unless Link steps in. Link says it has made no such commitment. D&D should walk.

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Sep 20
0

Daily Brief Australia: OZ Minerals Ltd, Link Administration and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • OZ Minerals May Be Narrowing the Price Gap to a BHP Deal
  • Link’s On Again-Off Again Scheme Is All but Off

OZ Minerals May Be Narrowing the Price Gap to a BHP Deal

By Travis Lundy

  • Six+ weeks ago, BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) approached OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) with a bid of A$25/share. Oz very quickly rejected it and said it was worth more.
  • The back and forth immediately post-rejection was not conciliatory. My expectation was that if they came back quickly, they’d have to pay A$30. But coming back quickly was tough.
  • There are hints now that may be the price. But it may not be. It will take time. 

Link’s On Again-Off Again Scheme Is All but Off

By Arun George

  • Dye & Durham/DND has proposed a revised Link Administration (LNK AU) offer to address any FCA redress payments. Around A$1.00 per share will hang on the outcome of the FCA investigation.
  • The Link Board has said it cannot recommend the revised proposal based on value, structure and alternatives available to Link. We agree with the Board’s view.
  • The scheme is all but dead. The shares are now a back-end play and remain attractive for value investors.

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Sep 19
0

Daily Brief Australia: Link Administration, OZ Minerals Ltd, Imugene Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (19 Sep) – Link Admin, Ramsay, Alliance, Genex, Moya, Singapore Medical, VNET
  • OZ Minerals Could Get an Improved Offer from BHP
  • That’s It Then As Link Admin Rejects D&D’s Revised Terms
  • Imugene (IMU AU) Placement: Extended Runway for Clinical Programs Pipeline at Modest Equity Dilution

Merger Arb Mondays (19 Sep) – Link Admin, Ramsay, Alliance, Genex, Moya, Singapore Medical, VNET

By Arun George

OZ Minerals Could Get an Improved Offer from BHP

By Arun George

That’s It Then As Link Admin Rejects D&D’s Revised Terms

By David Blennerhassett

  • After 23 months of negotiations, various bids from various parties, culminating in a protracted on-again, off-again, negotiation with Dye & Durham, Link Administration (LNK AU) has called it a day.
  • D&D arguably did the right thing and tabled a revised proposal to account for any enforcement process after the UK’s FCA raised redress payments. Link has rejected the revised terms. 
  • Link will now pursue an in-specie distribution of a minimum of 80% of Link’s shareholding in PEXA Group (PXA AU).

Imugene (IMU AU) Placement: Extended Runway for Clinical Programs Pipeline at Modest Equity Dilution

By Tina Banerjee

  • Imugene Ltd (IMU AU) announced A$80 million institutional placement at A$0.20/ share, representing 11.1% discount to last close on September 9, 2022. Shares issued represent just 6.8% of existing shares.
  • The company will have a pro-forma cash position of ~A$175 million on completion of the Placement, funding the company’s broad clinical pipeline of three platform technologies.
  • For every two new shares subscribed for under the placement, Imugene intends to issue one free new option. The options issued will provide A$66 million in funding, if fully exercised.

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