Category

Australia

Dec 09
0

Daily Brief Australia: Nitro Software Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Nitro Software (NTO AU): Potentia Raises to A$2.00 as the Battle Heats Up

Nitro Software (NTO AU): Potentia Raises to A$2.00 as the Battle Heats Up

By Arun George

  • Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU) has received a revised Potentia off-market takeover offer at A$2.00 per share, an 11.1% premium to its previous offer and in line with Alludo’s offer.
  • By bumping its offer, adding a scrip alternative and signalling a potentially higher price on due diligence access, Potentia has ramped up the pressure on the Board.
  • Potentia/Alludo offer remains at the low end of the IE’s valuation range. Alludo would have anticipated this move and likely will have factored in the need to raise its offer.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Dec 05
0

Daily Brief Australia: Monadelphous, Origin Energy and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Monadelphous (MND AU) Is The S&P ASX 200 ADD – There’s a Trade Here
  • Merger Arb Mondays (05 Dec) – Origin Energy, OZ Minerals, Genex, Bigtincan, Pendal, Golden Energy

Monadelphous (MND AU) Is The S&P ASX 200 ADD – There’s a Trade Here

By Travis Lundy

  • Monadelphous (MND AU) will be added to the S&P ASX 200 Index on 16 December 2022.
  • This is not a surprise. It has been the lead contender for a December ADD slot since the day after the September rebalance was completed (see here).
  • There is a fair bit of volume to buy, and there are pair trades to do.

Merger Arb Mondays (05 Dec) – Origin Energy, OZ Minerals, Genex, Bigtincan, Pendal, Golden Energy

By Arun George

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Dec 04
0

Daily Brief Australia: Warrego Energy, Monadelphous, Bigtincan Holdings Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Warrego (WGO AU)’s Rinehart V Stokes Takeover Tussle in Full Swing
  • S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Dec 2022): Couple of Changes to Close Out the Year
  • Bigtincan (BTH AU)’s Lightweight A$0.80 Offer from SQN

Warrego (WGO AU)’s Rinehart V Stokes Takeover Tussle in Full Swing

By Arun George

  • Beach Energy (BPT AU)’s revised offer of A$0.25 per share was quickly gazumped by Hancock’s revised off-market proposal of A$0.28 for Warrego Energy (WGO AU). All other terms remain unchanged.
  • Speculation that Strike Energy (STX AU) would also be a takeover target has resulted in its all-scrip offer rising to A$0.248 per share (at last close).
  • Expect another round of the takeover battle as the bidders are well capitalised and the strategic importance of Perth Basin as Australia’s premier onshore basin.

S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Dec 2022): Couple of Changes to Close Out the Year

By Brian Freitas

Bigtincan (BTH AU)’s Lightweight A$0.80 Offer from SQN

By Arun George

  • Bigtincan Holdings Ltd (BTH AU) disclosed a non-binding indicative offer of A$0.80 per share offer from SQN, a skinny 17.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • The offer is unattractive on several fronts and is the latest beaten-down ASX tech stock to be subject to a PE bid. Expect the Board to reject the offer.
  • Bigtincan also revealed other non-binding expressions of interest. This offer could flush out other potential bidders. At the last close, the gross spread is 6.0%.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Dec 03
0

Daily Brief Australia: Monadelphous, Bigtincan Holdings Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P ASX Dec 22 Rebalance: MND Is the Top Pick
  • Expect Bigtincan To Reject SQN’s Proposal

S&P ASX Dec 22 Rebalance: MND Is the Top Pick

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The index changes for the S&P ASX Index family for the December 2022 Rebalance were announced after the close on Friday 2nd December 2022.
  • There will be one ADD/DEL for the ASX 50 index and one ADD/DEL for the ASX 200 index.
  • In this insight, we take a closer look at our expectations for index flows and potential trading ideas.

Expect Bigtincan To Reject SQN’s Proposal

By David Blennerhassett

  • Software provider Bigtincan Holdings Ltd (BTH AU) has announced an indicative proposal, by way of Scheme, from PE outfit SQN Investors at A$0.80/share, a 17.6% premium to last close.
  • Due diligence has not yet been afforded. SQN currently holds a 13.6% stake.
  • BTH also highlighted it has had preliminary discussions with other interested parties. Expect BTH’s board not to engage with SQN at this price. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Dec 02
0

Daily Brief Australia: Carbon Revolution Ltd, FrankieOne, Bigtincan Holdings Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Carbon Revolution: SPACed & Smacked
  • HuffPost Investor, Binance Join US$15.5M Series A+ Round of Fraud Detection Startup FrankieOne
  • Expect Bigtincan To Reject SQN’s Proposal

Carbon Revolution: SPACed & Smacked

By David Blennerhassett

  • Following a one-month suspension, carbon-fibre wheel maker Carbon Revolution Ltd (CBR AU) announced it will merge (and delist from the ASX) with Twin Ridge Capital, a US-listed SPAC.
  • CBR said it also requires upward of A$30mn in bridging finance to fund near-term costs (through to June 2023). The share price promptly tanked 50% upon the resumption of trading. 
  • It’s an intriguing situation with an implied notional share price of A$1.49/share under the merger, versus the current price of A$0.15. So I dig a little deeper.

HuffPost Investor, Binance Join US$15.5M Series A+ Round of Fraud Detection Startup FrankieOne

By e27

  • FrankieOne, a global platform connecting customers to multiple identity verification and fraud detection vendors via one API, has added US$15.5 million to its Series A+ round.

  • The new tranche will allow FrankieOne to expand its business across Asia Pacific and North America.

  • Founded in 2019 by Simon Costello and Aaron Chipper, FrankieOne is an identity and fraud detection engine helping companies onboard and protect their customers.

Expect Bigtincan To Reject SQN’s Proposal

By David Blennerhassett

  • Software provider Bigtincan Holdings Ltd (BTH AU) has announced an indicative proposal, by way of Scheme, from PE outfit SQN Investors at A$0.80/share, a 17.6% premium to last close.
  • Due diligence has not yet been afforded. SQN currently holds a 13.6% stake.
  • BTH also highlighted it has had preliminary discussions with other interested parties. Expect BTH’s board not to engage with SQN at this price. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Dec 01
0

Daily Brief Australia: Home Consortium Ltd, Warrego Energy, Origin Energy and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • FTSE EPRA Nareit Index Rebalance: One Deletion for Australia
  • Reinhart Edges Stokes In Tussle For Warrego Energy
  • (Mostly) Asia M&A Nov 2022 Roundup: Origin, Perpetual, Mori Trust, Uzabase, Chip Eng, Golden Energy
  • Warrego (WGO AU) In a Three-Way Tussle with Hancock’s A$0.23 Offer

FTSE EPRA Nareit Index Rebalance: One Deletion for Australia

By Brian Freitas

  • There are no adds for the FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed Asia Index in December. The only deletion is Home Consortium Ltd (HMC AU). 
  • Passive trackers are estimated to sell 12x ADV on Home Consortium Ltd at the close 16 December. Short interest is nearly the same and there could be some covering.
  • Home Consortium Ltd (HMC AU) has underperformed its peers over the last 12 months and still trades more expensive to its peer group.

Reinhart Edges Stokes In Tussle For Warrego Energy

By David Blennerhassett

  • Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting has joined the bidding war for Warrego Energy (WGO AU) with a A$0.23/share, all cash, off-market Offer versus Beach Energy (BPT AU)‘s management-backed A$0.20/share Scheme Offer.
  • Hancock has already lodged the Bidder’s Statement. There is no minimum acceptance condition attached to  this offer.
  • Warrego currently recommends Beach’s Offer, subject to no superior proposal emerging. Beach has matching rights under the SID entered into on the 14 November. 

(Mostly) Asia M&A Nov 2022 Roundup: Origin, Perpetual, Mori Trust, Uzabase, Chip Eng, Golden Energy

By David Blennerhassett

  • For the month of November, 11 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$20bn.
  • The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in November was ~52%, and a year-to-date average of 41%.
  • This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.

Warrego (WGO AU) In a Three-Way Tussle with Hancock’s A$0.23 Offer

By Arun George

  • Hancock’s offer of A$0.23 is at a 15% premium to Beach Energy (BPT AU)’s A$0.20 offer and a 21.1% premium to Strike Energy (STX AU)’s scrip value on 29 November. 
  • The Hancock off-market offer for Warrego Energy (WGO AU) has no minimum acceptance condition or a material adverse change clause. The offer closes on 31 January 2023.
  • STX could be Hancock’s next logical target to facilitate Perth Basin consolidation. Between STX and BPT, BPT is more likely to return with an improved offer.  

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Nov 24
0

Daily Brief Australia: Link Administration, Pendal Group and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Link Admin (LNK AU) Sets in Motion a Strategy to Realise Underlying Value
  • Pendal/​Perpetual: 23 Dec Scheme Meeting

Link Admin (LNK AU) Sets in Motion a Strategy to Realise Underlying Value

By Arun George

  • The EGM to approve the PEXA Group (PXA AU) distribution of Link Administration (LNK AU)’s remaining 38.49% stake is on 23 December. Shareholders get one PEXA share per 7.52 Link shares.
  • This marks the latest move to unlock the underlying value by pursuing a breakup strategy. Discussions continue on DND’s acquisition of the CM and the BCM business for A$1.27 billion.  
  • Our base-case SoTP value is A$4.42 per share, which is 28% above the last close. If you haven’t been turned off by the Link saga, it is worth a look.

Pendal/​Perpetual: 23 Dec Scheme Meeting

By David Blennerhassett

  • After the Supreme Court of NSW ruled that Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) cannot stall the Scheme for Pendal Group (PDL AU), the Scheme Booklet is now out.  
  • Under the revised terms, Pendal shareholders will receive 1 Perpetual (share for every 7 Pendal shares plus $1.65/share cash. The IE concluded the terms are fair and reasonable. 
  • The Scheme Meeting will be held on the 23 December, with an expected implementation date on the 23 January.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Nov 23
0

Daily Brief Australia: Link Administration, Pendal Group and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Link Admin Is Cheap Amid PEXA In-Specie And Possible BCM/CM Sale
  • Pendal (PDL AU)/Perpetual (PPT AU) Scheme Meeting on 23 December

Link Admin Is Cheap Amid PEXA In-Specie And Possible BCM/CM Sale

By David Blennerhassett

  • Link Administration (LNK AU) has released the explanatory memorandum regarding the PEXA Group (PXA AU) in-specie distribution. 
  • Link shareholders will receive one PEXA share for every 7.52 Link shares. Shareholders will vote on the distribution on the 23 December. The IE, rightfully, deemed the process fair.
  • If D&D buys Link’s BCM/CM ops for A$1.27bn, Link would be net cash of ~A$1.40/share versus an ex-entitlement price of ~A$1.58/share. And Link would still hold the lucrative RSS ops. 

Pendal (PDL AU)/Perpetual (PPT AU) Scheme Meeting on 23 December

By Arun George

  • The IE considers Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)‘s cash and scrip offer for Pendal Group (PDL AU) to be fair and reasonable as it is within its valuation range of A$4.87-5.71. 
  • Perpetual shareholders are getting the short end of the stick. While possible, Regal Partners (RPL AU)/BPEA EQT riding to the rescue of Perpetual shareholders is low. 
  • Pendal shareholders, who are the net beneficiaries, will be supportive of the offer. At the last close prices, the gross spread to the offer is 11.3%.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Nov 22
0

Daily Brief Australia: Woodside Energy Group Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Woodside Energy ADR: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

Woodside Energy ADR: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Australian Energy major, Woodside Energy.
  • Increased production volumes and increased pricing resulted in an increase in sales volume.
  • Woodland Energy to collaborate to secure a steady energy supply for Japan.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Nov 21
0

Daily Brief Australia: PEXA Group and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Link Admin’s In-Specie Distribution of PEXA: Active Selling Followed by Passive Buying

Link Admin’s In-Specie Distribution of PEXA: Active Selling Followed by Passive Buying

By Brian Freitas

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free