Australia

• On the 27 Dec, to circumvent Perseus (PRU AU)‘s 19.9% dissenting vote, Orecorp (ORR AU) and Silvercorp (SVM CN) agreed to an off-market takeover, on the same terms. 
• That Offer – A$0.19 in cash and 0.0967 new Silvercorp shares – opened on the 3 January.
• Silvercorp paid ~A$0.51/share, on-market, just prior to the Offer. OreCorp is currently trading ~A$0.51-$0.52/share. Is there any legal obligation to set a minimum floor price of A$0.51/share?

• • Calima is selling Blackspur for ~A$83.3 mm (C$75 mm) in cash to Astara Energy. • Calima Energy has ~A$4.1 mm in cash which remains with Calima together with a A$0.4 mm bond with BCOGC. • Overall, assuming only A$69 mm (equivalent to A$0.11 per share) will be distributed to shareholders (representing the minimum of 85% of the final sale proceeds) would leave Calima with ~A$15-16 mm in net cash on closing (equivalent to ~A$0.025 per share).

• Amaero International Ltd (ASX:3DA) is a global specialist in advanced materials manufacturing for the defence, aerospace, and other industrial sectors.
• The company is developing an 800+-tonne a year critical metals alloy powder manufacturing facility in Tennessee, USA, with the initial focus on producing refractory alloy powder, C103, a critical metal powder used in hypersonics weaponry, strategic metals and satellites.
• The company is moving apace with its planned commercialisation, recently announcing it had secured A$7.5m in corporate financing and that it had executed a binding purchase order for its second gas atomiser, the next generation Electrode Induction Melting Inert Gas Atomiser (or EIGA premium). 

• The S&P/ASX 200 INDEX is oversold, currently down for 2 weeks (actually the second week down has just started), it has good chances to bounce this week.
• The best set up would be: index closing the week down at the end of this week: GO LONG at Close (or at any high probability support level reached intra-week).
• A reprise of the rally should last into the end of January (or longer).

• Human services company Millennium Services Group Ltd (ASX:MIL) has entered a Scheme of Arrangement with an entity associated with Softbank Robotics Singapore for the acquisition of 100% of shares at $1.15/share cash.
• Shareholders also have the option to accept a mix of cash and scrip in the new unlisted entity, with certain management committing not less than a total of 30% for this option.
• The bid price represents an 89% premium to the last RaaS update note (October 23) and 360% premium from July 1, 2023. 

Following an extensive drilling campaign, on 14 December, Alkane announced an update to its Boda mineral resource estimate to include Boda Two and Three, as expected in Q423. The result of the update was a 30% increase in the gold grade and a 22% (or 1.17Moz) increase in contained gold at Boda, which we value at US$28.2m (4.7 US cents or 7.0 Australian cents per share). The Boda deposit remains open at depth and along strike and a subsequent resource update at Kaiser is anticipated in late Q1 CY24 as well as a conceptual mine plan at the combined Kaiser-Boda deposit in due course.

• The discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened during December. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 49.1% (vs. 47.1%); GBL, 36.6% (vs. 34.9%); Heineken Holding, 16.7% (vs. 14.5%);
• Industrivärden C, 5.4% (vs.4.9%); Investor B, 13.5% (vs. 14.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 37.1% (vs. 39.9%).  The spread of Rio DLC widened to 24.2% (vs.17.2%).
• What seems interesting: in holding trades, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC: long RIO LN/short RIO AU.

• • The Anshof-2 well encountered high quality Eocene sands with at least 12 metres vertical thickness and porosity of ~20%. • The top of the Eocene sand was encountered ~40-50 m higher than expected, suggesting a much larger and flatter structure than expected in the P50 case. • The better-than-expected reservoir quality and thicker sands suggest better well deliverability and higher flow rates, which result in a higher production plateau and lower development cost with a positive impact on NPV.

• • ADX has farmed out a 50% interest in an exploration area with in the ADX AT I licence to MND in return for a A$0.73 mm back costs payment plus A$7.34 mm funding in exploration drilling. • The exploration area farmed-out to MND includes the LICHT and IRR gas prospects. • The LICHT prospect location (16.2 bcf gross best case prospective resources) has already received a drilling permit including the environmental clearance.

• ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.80 per share: Adding further exploration prospects in FY24 – ADX has farmed out a 50% interest in an exploration area within the ADX AT I licence to MND in return for a A$0.73 mm back costs payment plus A$7.34 mm funding in exploration drilling.
• The exploration area farmed-out to MND includes the LICHT and IRR gas prospects.
• The cash and carry component alone values 10% of the project at US$220 mm or US$440 mm for Chariot’s residual 20% interest (£0.31/sh).

• The Aussie Dollar is acting as a delta one to the Chinese Economic data, as the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) remains committed to maintaining the stability of the CNY.
• The AUDJPY has formed an intermediate double-top pattern.
• While it is likely to rebound, it could also be influenced by the difference in export growth between ROW with China and Japan.

• Drilling services company Boart Longyear (BLY AU) has agreed to a takeover by American Industrial Partners. Boart’s five largest shareholders – collectively holding 98.86% of shares out – are supportive.
• Highly-Leveraged Boart copped the brunt of the GFC, and never fully recovered. American Industrial Partners’ Offer values Boart at A$543mn against its 2007 IPO value of A$2.3bn.
• The takeover is expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2024. This is done.

• Soprano has upped its Offer for Whispir Ltd (WSP AU) to A$0.55/share, and has secured board support. 
• Pendula has a higher (indicative) Offer of A$0.60/share; however Whispir sees Soprano’s terms as superior due to the “conditionality, uncertainty and timing of progressing to a binding transaction with Pendula”.
• Soprano’s Offer for Whispir closes on the 10 January – unless extended. 

• Silvercorp Metals (SVM US) has switched to an off-market takeover offer. The Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU) consideration remains unchanged at A$0.19 cash and 0.0967 SVM shares per ORR share.
• The takeover offer is conditional on a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition, achievable in the absence of a superior proposal. 
• The crucial question is whether Perseus Mining (PRU AU) is comfortable with SVM effectively controlling ORR. We think that there is a low probability of Perseus launching a competing proposal.