Australia

• There was big passive buying in Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) in March from S&P/ASX trackers following the completion of the merger with Chemist Warehouse Group.
• Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) should be added to a global index in May and those passive trackers will have a lot of stock to buy.
• While there will be positioning in the stock, it appears lighter than the estimated passive buying. Shorts are being covered and that could provide a boost.

• Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), an Aussie gaming supplier, has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Austria’s Novomatic, Ainsworth’s largest shareholder (52.9%). A from Offer has been long rumoured.
• Novomatic is offering A$1.008/share (best & final), a 35% premium to last close. The Offer does NOT require FIRB signing off. The Offer has the unanimous backing of both boards.
• Expect shareholder pushback. The Offer consideration is 64% below what Novomatic paid for its controlling stake in 2016.

• Iron ore prices experienced a modest WoW increase of 0.2%, reflecting easing trade tensions as the US considers reducing some of the stringent tariffs previously imposed.
• China’s Total Social Financing (TSF) increased by 22% YoY, reaching 5.89 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 4.8 trillion yuan and boosting optimism for preemptive stimulus measures.
• China’s March steel production rose 5% YoY to 92.8 million tons, underscoring its vital role in the market, contributing 56% to total global production.

• In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
• We expect one change for ASX 20, one change for ASX 50, two changes for ASX 100, and one change for ASX 200. One month left in the reference period.
• Our long basket is up 14% vs shorts in a month. Index Rebal is coming back. ASX Index final index changes will be announced publicly on 6th June 2025.

• Woodside Energy Group Limited delivered a strong financial performance in its full year 2024 results, highlighting both the positives and negatives impacting the company.
• On the positive side, Woodside achieved a record annual production of 194 million barrels of oil equivalent, driven by strong performance at its Sangomar project.
• The company reported a net profit after tax of $3.6 billion, an improvement from the previous year, and declared a fully franked dividend of USD 1.22 per share.

• SGX IO Futures gained $2.69/ton this week, closing at $100.24/ton on April 23, breaking above the R1 level of $99.00/ton.
• Managed Money flipped to net short while Physicals turned net long, signaling a major positioning shift
• MACD divergence and RSI at 51.09 reflect building bullish momentum despite prices trading below long-term moving averages.

• Fenix Resources (ASX:FEX) is a junior iron ore producer based in the Midwest region of Western Australia (WA).
• FEX has been producing iron ore from the Iron Ridge project since 2020 with a total of 5.7Mt produced to date.
• Going forward, FEX is planning to expand its production rate from ~1.3Mtpa to 4.0Mtpa by the end of CY25 through the ramp-up of production at the recently restarted Shine Mine and the currently under construction mine at Beebyn-W11.

• GTI Energy Ltd (ASX:GTR) is focused on the development of three uranium projects located across Wyoming and Utah, USA.
• Lo Herma (Wyoming) is the current flagship project for the company.
• The company’s Wyoming projects are amenable to in-situ recovery (ISR) with GTR progressing a scoping study at the Lo Herma project which is evaluating the economic feasibility of a potential ISR mining operation.

• Kaiser Reef Ltd (ASX:KAU) is undergoing a transformation as it acquires the Henty Gold mine from Catalyst Minerals (ASX:CYL) which should drive a step change in the production profile of the company from <12kozpa to 37kozpa (proforma) with scope to increase to 50kozpa+ in the medium term.
• Post the funding package completed alongside the acquisition, KAU has $27.2m in cash which can support the incremental investments into its mining operations to achieve the stated production targets.
• Post the Henty Gold acquisition, Kaiser Reef Ltd (ASX:KAU) has the potential to become a 50kozpa+ producer over the medium term with 30kozpa+ from the Henty mine and 20kozpa+ from the A1 Gold mine.

• Legacy Minerals Holdings Ltd (ASX:LGM) is a prospect generator and exploration company with a portfolio of projects across NSW.
• Overall, LGM has nine projects whereby four are under joint venture with other major and junior explorers which provide additional funding to increase the level of concurrent exploration activity across its projects.
• Like 2024, 2025 is set to be another productive year for LGM with multiple, funded, high-impact drill programmes aiming to make a significant discovery in addition to progressing development options at Drake.

• Evolution Mining‘s stock price has moved higher over the last year as Gold has gone on a big run. The increased market cap should result in a global index inclusion.
• Evolution Mining (EVN AU) has performed in line with its peers over the last year and trades in line with the group on most valuation parameters.
• Positioning has jumped in Evolution Mining (EVN AU) and its peers over the last couple of months. The index inclusion could result in outperformance over the next few weeks.

Recce is raising up to A$15.8m in equity fundraising through a now-completed A$5.0m share placement and an entitlement offer for remaining shareholders that could raise up to an additional A$10.8m in gross proceeds. Both rounds of financing are priced at A$0.28 per new share. We anticipate the total funding should support Recce’s operations into Q226 (Q4 CY25) as its near-term focus lies on advancing R327 topical gel (R327G) through registration-enabling pivotal studies. We expect Recce to start a registrational Indonesian Phase III study of R327G for the treatment of diabetic foot infections (DFIs) in the coming weeks. We now obtain an rNPV valuation of A$615.1m and our per-share valuation adjusts to A$2.51 per share (vs A$2.68 previously), reflecting the increase in shares outstanding after the placement.

• On the 21st Feb 2025, Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), a leader in dermatology and women’s health, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with US-based pharmaceutical outfit, Cosette Pharmaceuticals.
• Cosette is offering A$7.40/share, a 37% premium to last close. The Offer has the backing of Mayne’s two largest shareholder, Viburnum and Bruce Mathieson, collectively holding 14.1%.
• Mayne has now revised the Scheme timeline, with completion targeted late June, early July. This is done. 

• China’s economy grew 5.4% in Q1 2025, matching Q4 2024 and beating forecasts, as manufacturers boosted exports ahead of Trump’s tariffs. 
• China’s March retail sales (+5.9% YoY) and factory output (+7.7% YoY) beat forecasts, accelerating from Jan-Feb growth as economic recovery gains momentum. 
• Iron ore inventories fell further in April, with both SMM and CISA reporting weekly drops. Weather-disrupted port operations tightened supply, supporting prices, though US-China trade tensions add demand uncertainty. 

• A double line is drawn under the past, as its wholly owned subsidiary Coro Energy Duyung is being sold.
• It has a holding in the Mako Gas Field in Indonesia and the proposed disposal is to West Natuna Exploration Ltd (WNEL), a subsidiary of Conrad Asia Energy, that already has a 76.5% working interest in Mako.
• Whilst Coro has supported the asset for many years, recent GSA pricing and oil price movements have materially deteriorated the project economics and the Operator has not delivered material progress on key commercial milestones.

• NVX believes its strategy aligns with the administration’s goal to secure critical mineral supply chains and support domestic manufacturing.
• Its existing Riverside plant – where production capacity has been pre-sold via multiple offtake agreements – is in Tennessee and NVX plans to construct a 2nd production facility in the state, recently obtaining approval and expected tax credits toward this project.
• Each of NVX’s three operating units is expected to play an important role in its development & growth, as NVX leverages proprietary R&D & patented technology to develop critical materials for the battery sector.

• Fenix Resources (FEX AU) reported an increase in deliveries from Q3 FY25 to 704k tons from 346k tons/587k tons in Q1/Q2 FY25, transitioning from a 1.3 mtpa-2.8 mtpa runrate. 
• The company remains on track to commence production from the Beebyn W-11 mine by the September quarter of 2025, taking the annualized production rate to>4.0 mtpa. 
• At ~4 mtpa, we expect the mines to generate 200 mn AUD of operating cash flow (at 100 USD/ton iron ore price), equivalent to FEX’s market cap. 

• With De Grey Mining (DEG AU) shareholders approving the acquisition by Northern Star Resources (NST AU), we move to the phase of passive index flows. 
• As expected, Generation Development Group (GDG AU) will be added to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 23 April to replace De Grey Mining (DEG AU). 
• There will be passive inflows for Northern Star Resources (NST AU) from some local and global index trackers due to the increase in the number of shares outstanding.

• Last week, I had the pleasure of meeting the senior management team of Kina Securities (KSL AU — US$193 million) — a Papua New Guinea- (“PNG”) based commercial bank listed on the ASX.

• Participants included Kina Securities’ CEO Ivan Vidovich and CFO Johnson Kalo.

• The bank trades at a modest P/E ratio of 8.2x with a dividend yield of 9.2%. While the share price has risen recently, it remains well below its all-time high in 2019.

• China recently escalated restrictions on the export of rare earths. Not just to the US as the two global players go toe-to-toe on tariffs; but to all countries.
• China’s latest round of restrictions target critical materials used in defense, electronics, and EVs.
• Apart from China, the world’s largest refining – not just the largest miner – who else refines rare earth elements, specifically heavy rare earths?

After reporting positive momentum in Q424, Freelancer saw year-on-year growth in gross marketplace volume (GMV) and revenue in Q125 across both divisions. The company also generated positive operating profit and cash flow in the quarter. We view the adoption of AI (by Freelancer, by freelancers and by customers) and new integrations and partnerships within Escrow as key drivers of growth and profitability during our forecast period.

• GTN Limited (ASX:GTN) provides traffic information reports and cash compensation to radio and television stations, and in return gets a guaranteed number of commercial advertising spots adjacent to traffic, news and information reports.
• With material capital management flagged for later this calendar year, we think a capital return is the most likely option given a lack of franking credits for a special dividend.
• We look at a range of capital return amounts, including our base case for a $0.25/share capital return (or $49m in total) as this would result in a debt/EBITDA ratio around the peer average of 1.0x FY25f and fit within the current $35m banking facility.