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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Industrials: Doosan Bobcat Inc, LS Electric, Hanwha Corporation, Timee Inc, Axon Enterprise , Comfortdelgro Corp, Sanyo Trading and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • FSS Orders Doosan Group to Resubmit the Merger Plan – “Merger Plan Is Not Illegal, But Is It Fair?”
  • Clarifications Regarding the FSS’s Unexpected Revision Request for the Doosan Mergers
  • KOSPI Size Indices: Outperformance Slows on Momentum Stalls
  • Hanwha Energy Acquires An Additional 5.2% of Hanwha Corp Through a Tender Offer
  • Timee IPO Trading – Garnered a Strong Demand, Should Pop
  • Axon: Stunning The Competition – [Business Breakdowns, EP.175]
  • ESG Brew with ComfortDelGro’s Group Chief Sustainability and Risk Officer: ‘Our transition to cleaner energy vehicles will be a game-changer’
  • Sanyo Trading (3176) – Multifaceted Strategy for Growth


FSS Orders Doosan Group to Resubmit the Merger Plan – “Merger Plan Is Not Illegal, But Is It Fair?”

By Douglas Kim

  • On 24 July, the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) ordered the Doosan Group to resubmit the merger plan. 
  • It is rare for FSS to reject companies’ merger reports but there has been an exception this time since this deal is egregiously negative to many minority investors.
  • Doosan Group needs to resubmit a revised merger plan within next three months. Otherwise, the securities report involving the merger plan of the Doosan Group companies will be considered withdrawn. 

Clarifications Regarding the FSS’s Unexpected Revision Request for the Doosan Mergers

By Sanghyun Park

  • The FSS requested Doosan Robotics to revise the prospectuses for both the Share Swap with Doosan Bobcat and Merger with Doosan Enerbility.
  • Although the FSS’s wording seems aggressive, it does not request the cancellation. Authorities are displeased but lack political momentum to derail Doosan’s restructuring.
  • The FSS asks Doosan to clarify merger synergies, warn of Robotics’ overvalued stock price and potential decline, and highlight the collaborative robot market’s growth risks.

KOSPI Size Indices: Outperformance Slows on Momentum Stalls

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 June and will end on 31 August.
  • We see 8 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 1 new addition to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap and 3 new additions to MidCap.
  • There are a few stocks that are expected to have passive flows from global and local index trackers over the next few months and that will add to the impact.

Hanwha Energy Acquires An Additional 5.2% of Hanwha Corp Through a Tender Offer

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 24 July, Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS) announced that Hanwha Energy secured an additional 5.2% stake in Hanwha Corp through a tender offer.
  • A total of 3.9 million shares have been applied for the tender offer as of 24 July (65% of targeted amount). 
  • We believe that the Hanwha Group is likely to grab more shares in Hanwha Corp through an additional tender offer sometime in the next 6-12 months. 

Timee IPO Trading – Garnered a Strong Demand, Should Pop

By Clarence Chu

  • Timee Inc (215A JP) raised US$300m in its Japan IPO. The IPO had been a 100% secondary selldown by existing shareholders.
  • Timee operates an on-demand staffing platform that connects part-time jobseekers with businesses in Japan.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Axon: Stunning The Competition – [Business Breakdowns, EP.175]

By Business Breakdowns

  • Axon sells a public safety technology ecosystem that includes three main product groups, TASERs, body-worn cameras and other sensors, and evidence software, amongst a host of other software services, including virtual reality training.
  • Axon’s solutions really seek to solve three of the biggest problems facing public safety, too many officers and too many suspects are dying from gunshots.
  • Axon solves for this is as the monopoly provider of TASERs globally. A TASER can be used as an alternative to firearms to temporarily incapacitate a suspect so that they may be restrained with a much, much lower chance of doing physical harm.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


ESG Brew with ComfortDelGro’s Group Chief Sustainability and Risk Officer: ‘Our transition to cleaner energy vehicles will be a game-changer’

By Geoff Howie

  • ESG Brew with ComfortDelGro’s Group Chief Sustainability and Risk Officer: ‘Our transition to cleaner energy vehicles will be a game-changer’ Land transport operator ComfortDelGro is switching its fleet of over 40,000 vehicles in 12 countries to cleaner energy ones as part of its sustainability drive.
  • Jong explains: “We operate in 12 countries with a total fleet of over 40,000 vehicles spanning taxis, buses, trains and more.

Sanyo Trading (3176) – Multifaceted Strategy for Growth

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Proactiveanddiversifiedapproachtogrowth–SanyoTrading continues to execute its transformation strategy toward generating sustainable growth, underlined by its key principles in its latest long- term plan ‘SANYO VISION 2028’.
  • While sales mix improvement remains a core theme to raise profitability, we believe the company is taking a multifaceted approach to generating growth through margin enhancement efforts, sales volume expansion, and earnings-accretive M&A.
  • With this, management has access to different growth levers, as the business model is inevitably influenced by economic cycles.

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Daily Brief Financials: Apollo Global Management , K Bank, Bandhan Bank Ltd, Banco De Sabadell SA, iShares Russell 2000 ETF, USD, Primary Health Properties, Jafco Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Sep24 S&P500 Index Rebal – Two Changes Expected; $6bn One-Way Flow and Two Spinoffs?
  • Korea’s New IPO Bookbuilding & Lockup Results Disclosure Rule, Effective from August
  • NIFTY Bank Index Rebalance Preview: Bandhan Bank Facing Double Deletion
  • BBVA/Sabadell: Deal Uncertainty Grows After Sabadell’s Results
  • Monitoring Small- Vs. Large-Caps and Growth Vs. Value; $SPX, $QQQ in Pullback Mode
  • Global Rates, US Credit: Spreadbites Spreads, Politics, and the Consumer
  • Primary Health Properties – Continuing dividend growth
  • Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update


Sep24 S&P500 Index Rebal – Two Changes Expected; $6bn One-Way Flow and Two Spinoffs?

By Travis Lundy

  • The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the September 2024 index rebal event.
  • We expect two regular changes during September. More interestingly, a couple of SP500 members are working on spin-offs which could trigger some high-impact deletions over the next few months.

Korea’s New IPO Bookbuilding & Lockup Results Disclosure Rule, Effective from August

By Sanghyun Park

  • FSS’s leaked IPO guidelines include new, highly attention-grabbing additions: specifically, the disclosure of extra information from the bookbuilding and lockup results not mentioned in May.
  • Institutions submitting prices outside the indicative band must be disclosed by KRX investor type. Additionally, average placed price information for lockup-pledged investors must be disclosed.
  • FSS will distribute new IPO guidelines this week and apply them from next month. Major IPOs like K Bank must disclose more detailed bookbuilding and lockup results, impacting trading dynamics.

NIFTY Bank Index Rebalance Preview: Bandhan Bank Facing Double Deletion

By Brian Freitas


BBVA/Sabadell: Deal Uncertainty Grows After Sabadell’s Results

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Banco de Sabadell’s Q2 2024 results highlight strong performance, strategic progress, and effective capital management.
  • Sabadell is currently trading at a 0.89x P/TBV (vs. 5-y 0.41x average), accurately representing its profitability and RoTE outlook. It is also trading at 7.5x Fwd P/E.
  • BBVA’s takeover bid is unlikely to succeed unless BBVA enhances the share exchange ratio or includes some cash. Gross spread (1 BBVA x 4.83 SAB) is just 3.4%.

Monitoring Small- Vs. Large-Caps and Growth Vs. Value; $SPX, $QQQ in Pullback Mode

By Joe Jasper

  • Breadth has expanded significantly in recent weeks with the Russell 2000 (IWM) breaking above major 2.5-year resistance at $210; $210 is now critical support moving forward.
  • Technology/Large-Cap growth/Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has consolidated after getting extended, and with June 12 gap support on QQQ getting filled/breaking today, it appears this pullback is likely to continue.
  • The SPX is breaking its 20-day MA. June 12th gap at 5375-5409 is potential support, but it appears a pullback in the SPX and QQQ may be headed to 5191/$449.

Global Rates, US Credit: Spreadbites Spreads, Politics, and the Consumer

By At Any Rate

  • Credit spreads have traded in a tight range despite various market events
  • High yield spreads have tightened throughout the month
  • Macro factors like growth, inflation, and Fed policies are more important for credit markets than the political environment

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Primary Health Properties – Continuing dividend growth

By Edison Investment Research

Primary Health Properties’ (PHP’s) H124 results show continuing earnings and dividend growth, driven by rental income and underpinned by a low cost ratio and significantly fixed borrowing costs. With open market rental growth, covering two-thirds of rent roll, accelerating further, we forecast this to continue through FY26, which would mark 30 years of unbroken dividend growth.


Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased to JPY5.1bn (+7.3% YoY), with operating profit at JPY1.6bn (+171.7% YoY) and net income at JPY1.1bn (+32.6% YoY).
  • Capital gains reached JPY2.5bn (+33.2% YoY), with JPY570mn from listed shares and JPY1.9bn from unlisted shares.
  • Total investment in Q1 FY03/25 was JPY9.9bn, with JPY5.7bn for domestic VC investments and JPY4.2bn for the US.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Tohokushinsha Film, WH Group, Shinsung Tongsang, Amer Sports , Guess? Inc, Yeo Hiap Seng, JAKKS Pacific , Canon Marketing Japan and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tohokushinsha (2329 JP) – 3D Investment Partners Proposes Take-Private
  • Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (July 24)
  • Shinsung Tongsang: Tender Offer Fails and How to Take Away Customers From Uniqlo
  • Amer Sports IPO Lock-Up Expiry – PE Investor Might Look to Trim US$750m Stake
  • GES: Snapping the Store: Summer Begins to Sizzle; Reiterate Buy, $37 PT
  • Yeo Hiap Seng (YHS SP): Healthy Drinks, Thirsty Shareholders
  • JAKK: 2Q Preview: Setting up for Success; Reiterate Buy Rating, $24 PT
  • Canon Marketing (8060) – Finally Using Its Cash, But It Is Walking The Walk With No Talk Behind


Tohokushinsha (2329 JP) – 3D Investment Partners Proposes Take-Private

By Travis Lundy

  • 3D Investment Partners, known to be activist-ish-y, purchased 18% of Tohokushinsha Film (2329 JP) in the 12 months to March 2024. They started a public activism campaign in February.
  • The company has started down a better governance track, but now 3D has made a takeover proposal to Tohokushinsha, which will consider it under Special Committee.
  • There are a couple of possible outcomes here which are interesting to consider. There are no other spoilers possible except those friendly to founders and management.

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (July 24)

By David Mudd

  • BYD (1211 HK) shares had a breakout relative to the MSCI China index and showing good momentum during the low volume days of summer. 
  • POWER ASSETS HOLDINGS (6 HK) has shown a breakout relative to MSCI Hong Kong with a defensive business and 5%+ dividend yield.
  • WH GROUP (288 HK) has also shown a breakout relative to the MSCI Hong Kong after its announcement of the spinoff of Smithfield Foods in the US.

Shinsung Tongsang: Tender Offer Fails and How to Take Away Customers From Uniqlo

By Douglas Kim

  • Shinsung Tongsang shares rose 10% to 2,510 won today after it was announced that the tender offer failed. Basically, the tender offer failed because the tender offer price was too low. 
  • Only 26% of the 31.664 million shares responded to the tender offer. Accordingly, the shareholding ratio of Chairman Yeom and his related parties increased from 77.98% to 83.88%. 
  • Top Ten has benefited from executing its strategy well (such as employing Lee Na-Young in advertisements to grab customers from Uniqlo). Overall, we remain positive on Shinsung Tongsang.

Amer Sports IPO Lock-Up Expiry – PE Investor Might Look to Trim US$750m Stake

By Sumeet Singh

  • Amer Sports (AS US) raised around US$1.3bn in its US IPO in Feb 2024, after pricing its IPO below its initial range.
  • Amer Sports is a sports and outdoor brands company making clothing and other sporting equipment for use in snow sports, running, climbing, baseball, american football, tennis and other sports.
  • In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and deal dynamics.

GES: Snapping the Store: Summer Begins to Sizzle; Reiterate Buy, $37 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $37 price target and projections for Guess?
  • after visiting stores in Long Island and the Metropolitan New York City area.
  • With the return of hot and humid weather, we believe Guess?

Yeo Hiap Seng (YHS SP): Healthy Drinks, Thirsty Shareholders

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Yeo Hiap Seng(YHS SP) , known for its Yeo’s brand of Asian/health drinks, trades near its 52-week low at SGD 0.55, despite having financial assets and cash worth SGD 0.44/share.
  • With limited guidance on reinvestment/growth opportunities and management’s stance against returning cash to shareholders, the stock trades around dividend yield, now at 3.6%.
  • Over the past decade, the stock has lost 75% of its value, and management must take decisive actions to enhance long-term shareholder value.

JAKK: 2Q Preview: Setting up for Success; Reiterate Buy Rating, $24 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $24 price target for JAKKS Pacific with the company announcing 2Q24 (June) results after the close on Wednesday.
  • While we do not expect, nor have we projected, a strong 2Q, we do believe management will be upbeat on a number of key fronts, including: 1) Cleaning up inventory levels in anticipation of Holiday strength and new launches; 2) gearing up for more normalized Halloween costume demand; 3) initial launches for The Simpsons lines to key domestic and international retailers; 4) progress on the international expansion front; 5) the initial shipments for the Authentic Brands partnership and 6) potential demand for Moana 2 and Sonic the Hedgehog 3 Holiday movies.
  • Further, we expect the balance sheet has remained debt free, cash rich and management will provide an update on potential return to shareholders.

Canon Marketing (8060) – Finally Using Its Cash, But It Is Walking The Walk With No Talk Behind

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, Canon Marketing Japan (8060 JP) announced a large Tender Offer Buyback from its parent company Canon Inc (7751 JP). Canon will tender 20mm shares (15.42%). 
  • This is a very capital efficient way to conduct a buyback from a parent, and an even better way for a parent to sell shares of a sub. 
  • This corporate action will reduce equity by 20%, and partially clean up the messy inter-company transactions which should not exist. 

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 19th): Doosan Enerbility and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 19th): Doosan Enerbility


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 19th): Doosan Enerbility

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Jul 19th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD5.8bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Doosan Enerbility (034020 KS).

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Daily Brief ESG: What Is Needed for More Engagement to Be Effective Is to Reduce Policy Shareholdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • What Is Needed for More Engagement to Be Effective Is to Reduce Policy Shareholdings


What Is Needed for More Engagement to Be Effective Is to Reduce Policy Shareholdings

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Few companies file their annual securities reports prior to AGM, and since they are filed 1-2 days prior to AGM, there’s insufficient time for a thorough review of useful information.
  • Profitable companies that gain the support of overseas investors further increase their return on capital through engagement, and the gap between them and those that don’t will continue to widen.
  • Since reducing policy shareholdings will reduce the percentage of voting rights that unconditionally favor company proposals, engagement will be more effective and speed up the process of management improvement.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Morning Connection – 23 July 2024 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Morning Connection – 23 July 2024
  • Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Slip
  • Is the AI Boom Over?
  • Union Budget 2024: Key Announcements for Different Industries
  • All You Need to Know: Economic Survey 2023-24
  • # 32 India Insight: Reliance Disney Merger, Eureka Forbes Distribution Plans, Suzlon Profits Surges
  • [Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:3690 HK/TCOM US/1024 HK/BIDU US/PDD US/AMZN US/NTES US/700 HK/BABA US
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:1519 HK/ZTO US/1810 HK/981 HK/XPEV US/LI US/NIO US/QCOM US/TSMC US
  • 2nd Quarter 2024 Letter to Investors
  • Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Focus on Westwater Resources, Inc. (WWR)


Japan Morning Connection – 23 July 2024

By Andrew Jackson

  • Major indices surged, led by Rambus +9.14% signaling strong tech sector momentum.  However there is continued weakness for auto related chips and a lower cyclical demand in industrial IC’s.
  • CrowStrike continued it’s significant drop, with CEO to testify on outage; increased interest in rivals like Trend Micro suggests potential market share shifts in security software. 
  • Kyushu Rail announced a 15% rail fare hike effective April 2025, leading to a +6.78% surge; tech industry growth in Kyushu will impact infrastructure-related firms positively.

Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Slip

By Mark Chadwick

  • US Stocks were flat ahead of key tech earnings. Both Alphabet and Tesla posted mixed results, with share prices falling after-hours
  • Nidec revised its FY2025 forecast, expecting a 48% year-on-year increase in net profit to 185 billion yen
  • Hitachi will sell its 40% stake in its air-conditioning joint venture with Johnson Controls International to Bosch

Is the AI Boom Over?

By Jim Handy

  • Nvidia gave guidance for significantly slower Q/Q growth in Q2
  • Nvidia and its HBM suppliers have told of shortages, driving hyperscale datacenters to build excess inventory
  • At the first sign of softness, Nvidia’s customers are likely to enter a digestion phase, drastically reducing orders

Union Budget 2024: Key Announcements for Different Industries

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • 9 Key Sectors for generating opportunities for India in Budget: Agri, Employment, Inclusive development, Manufacturing and Services, Urban Development, Energy, Infra, Innovation & R&D, NexGen reforms. 
  • The overall tone of the Union Budget 2024 emphasizes support for MSMEs, Infrastructure, defence, and youth development.
  • The budget’s focus on diverse sectors and inclusive development strengthens confidence in India’s long-term economic resilience and growth trajectory.

All You Need to Know: Economic Survey 2023-24

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • The Economic Survey 2024 emphasizes long-term strategies for India’s “Amrit Kaal” goals, highlighting sustained economic growth, climate action, and sectoral advancements.
  • India’s GDP grew by 8.2% in FY24, with key sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, and electronics showing strong performance. The government focuses on bottom-up reforms for sustained growth.
  • The survey’s emphasis on strategic, long-term growth and resilience reinforces confidence in India’s economic future, aligning with the vision for a “Viksit Bharat” by 2047.

# 32 India Insight: Reliance Disney Merger, Eureka Forbes Distribution Plans, Suzlon Profits Surges

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • India’s CCI intensively scrutinizes Reliance-Disney $8.5 billion merger amid major antitrust concerns.
  • Eureka Forbes, under new leadership, plans extensive distribution network growth and product launches.
  • Suzlon’s Q1 consolidated net profit soars 200% YoY, reaching ₹302 crore with a 50% revenue increase.

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:3690 HK/TCOM US/1024 HK/BIDU US/PDD US/AMZN US/NTES US/700 HK/BABA US

By Ying Pan

  • 3690 HK/TCOM US: Online catering is robust in 2Q24, while online tourism diminishing quickly(+/-)
  • 1024 HK: Source said Kuaishou’s video generation LLM, Kling AI, has surpassed one million total application users.(+)
  • 3690 HK:Meituan may launch food delivery service in Riyadh in September or October this year (+)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1519 HK/ZTO US/1810 HK/981 HK/XPEV US/LI US/NIO US/QCOM US/TSMC US

By Eric Wen

  • Macro News Update: Our take from the decision draft of the CCP 3rd Plenary Session
  • 1519 HK/ZTO US: Weekly parcel volume shows 31% y-o-y growth (+)
  • 1810 HK/981 HK: Huawei’s mid-premium Nova 13 smartphone to be delayed (+//)

2nd Quarter 2024 Letter to Investors

By Massif Capital Research

  • Inflation and Market Dynamics: In this letter, we discuss persistent inflationary pressures and potential misallocation of capital in financial markets that could lead to future economic instability.
  • Of specific concern is persistent under-investment in the Real Asset Ecosystem, which includes commodity producers and industries with significant vertical linkages to commodities, an ecosystem of businesses that ensure sustainable economic growth and stability.
  • We review our Enviox and Siemens Energy investment thesis and explain continued confidence in our lithium investments despite widespread negative EV sentiment.


Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Focus on Westwater Resources, Inc. (WWR)

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index was down 3.6% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 2.0%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.7%) and the Nasdaq Index (down 4.0%).
  • Energy Technology (14.4% of the index) was down 8.1%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (59.6% of the index) was down 1.7%, ClimateTech Mining was down 7.0%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.7% of index) was down 6.0%.
  • Top 10 Performers: ARVL, ZAPP, NAAS, VMC, PEGY, QS, LCID, OUST, EVGO, COMM


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Daily Brief ECM: Sai Life Sciences Pre-IPO Tearsheet and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Sai Life Sciences Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Hyundai Motor India Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation
  • Zinka Logistics (Blackbuck) Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Pre-IPO TYK Medicines (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
  • Solera IPO Preview: Low Single-Digit Growth and $8B+ of Variable Rate Indebtedness


Sai Life Sciences Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Sumeet Singh

  • SAI Life Sciences(SLS) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Kotak, IIFL, Jefferies and MS.
  • SLS is a CRDMO. It provides end-to-end services across the drug discovery, development and manufacturing value chain, for small molecule NCE to global pharmaceutical innovators and biotechnology firms
  • As per Frost & Sullivan, SLS was the fastest-growing Indian CRDMOs among listed Indian peers in terms of revenue CAGR as well as EBITDA CAGR from FY22 to FY24.

Hyundai Motor India Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Hyundai Motor (005385 KS) is looking to raise around US$3bn via listing its India unit, Hyundai Motor India. HMI is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Hyundai Motor Group.
  • HMI primarily manufactures and sells four-wheeler passenger vehicles and parts. Currently its vehicle portfolio includes 13 passenger vehicle models across sedans, hatchbacks, SUVs and battery EVs.
  • In our previous notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison. In this note, we talk about valuations.

Zinka Logistics (Blackbuck) Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Blackbuck (1355652D IN) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Axis Capital, Morgan Stanley, JM Financial, IIFL Securities.
  • Blackbuck is India’s largest digital platform for truck operators, with 963,345 operators in India transacting on its Blackbuck platform in FY24, comprising 27.52% of India’s truck operators, as per Redseer.
  • Through Blackbuck, its customers digitally manage payments for tolling and fueling, monitor drivers and fleets using telematics, find loads on its marketplace and get access to used vehicle financing. 

Pre-IPO TYK Medicines (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • TY-9591 has differentiated indication compared with the current listed third-generation EGFR-TKI, but it still depends on the final clinical results, which also bring more uncertainty to the commercialization performance.
  • TYK’s development strategy requires it to invest heavily on head-to-head trials.Due to cash shortage, until TYK successfully addresses survival pressure,we recommend a more cautious assessment of pipeline prospects/future R&D arrangements.
  • TYK is a “mediocre” company. The valuation (RMB3.08 billion) is based on optimistic expectations that core product will be successfully developed, become Me-Better, and commercialized smoothly.We’re, however, conservative about this.

Solera IPO Preview: Low Single-Digit Growth and $8B+ of Variable Rate Indebtedness

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Solera Corp, the global leader in vehicle lifecycle management and automotive software solution provider, filed to list IPO on New York Stock Exchange.  
  • The software company plans to raise capital and repay a portion of massive debt obligations, which exceeded $8B as of Jun-24. Goldman Sachs is leading the offering.  
  • With $8B+ of variable rate indebtedness and low single-digit growth, the risk-reward profile of Solera IPO looks increasingly skewed to the downside.

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: JSW Steel Ltd and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: JSW Steel Ltd, Vista Land & Lifescapes
  • Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield


Morning Views Asia: JSW Steel Ltd, Vista Land & Lifescapes

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Furukawa Battery (6937) – Ugly Process in Virtual Take-Under Take-Private and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Furukawa Battery (6937) – Ugly Process in Virtual Take-Under Take-Private
  • Furukawa Battery (6937 JP): Long-Dated Pre-Conditional Offer at JPY1,400
  • Sun Corporation (6736 JP): The Uphill Struggle for True Wind’s Revised Partial Offer
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24 Rebal: The Strong Returns of ASX 300 LONG-SHORT Trade Could Continue
  • EQD | The HSI Is Ripe For A Rally In August (IF July’s Close Is Negative)
  • FXI Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; One More Possible
  • Midea Group (000333 CH): CSRC Approval ✓; IPO Size Will Depend on H-Share Discount


Furukawa Battery (6937) – Ugly Process in Virtual Take-Under Take-Private

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, Advantage Partners announced the intention to launch a TOB to take over Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) at ¥1,400 – a 26% premium to last.  
  • This will require substantial time to obtain regulatory and foreign investment clearances so it is anticipated the Tender Offer will be launched at end-March 2025. I expect that is conservative.
  • The price paid to minorities is a premium. But the price paid by the buyer is actually a takeunder. And it gets worse from there. 

Furukawa Battery (6937 JP): Long-Dated Pre-Conditional Offer at JPY1,400

By Arun George

  • Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) recommended a pre-conditional tender offer from Advantage Partners, Tokyo Century Corp (8439 JP) and Furukawa Electric (5801 JP) consortium at JPY1,400, 22.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • The precondition is approval under the competition laws of Japan and Thailand. The offer is long-dated and anticipated to commence in March 2025.
  • While not a knockout bid, the required minority acceptance rate is not onerous. A long-dated offer presents a free option on a bump due to earnings upside or a counteroffer.

Sun Corporation (6736 JP): The Uphill Struggle for True Wind’s Revised Partial Offer

By Arun George

  • True Wind has increased its partial offer for Sun Corp (6736 JP) by 8.0% to JPY4,750 and lowered the minimum number of shares to be purchased from 3.8 to 3.3m.
  • True Wind’s offer has inadvertently spotlighted the valuation disparity vs the Cellebrite DI (CLBT US) stake, resulting in the shares trading through terms.
  • True Wind’s revised offer will struggle to succeed as the 8% price uplift is materially lower than the 19% value increase in the Cellebrite stake (since the offer announcement).

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24 Rebal: The Strong Returns of ASX 300 LONG-SHORT Trade Could Continue

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2024 index rebal event.
  • We see one ASX 100 change and two ASX 200 changes but there are a couple of names lurking just outside the border which have to be monitored carefully.
  • For ASX 300, we see 13 ADDs and 6 DELs. Many of these expected ADDs and DELs could have more than 10 days of volume to trade.

EQD | The HSI Is Ripe For A Rally In August (IF July’s Close Is Negative)

By Nico Rosti

  • The Hang Seng Index has been falling in June and July, but our MONTHLY seasonal pattern model indicates the index has a very good chance to close August up.
  • The condition we need, to forecast that August will be closing up, is to have July closing down, i.e. <17718.61.
  • The index is WEEKLY OVERSOLD, so the timing to buy will be critical, because you want to get in early, but not too early (and July must close down).

FXI Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; One More Possible

By Brian Freitas


Midea Group (000333 CH): CSRC Approval ✓; IPO Size Will Depend on H-Share Discount

By Brian Freitas

  • The CSRC has approved Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH)‘s application to issue H-shares to be listed on the HKEX (388 HK)
  • Under the approval, Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) can issue up to 650.85m shares. Depending on the H-share discount, that could raise up to HK$43.6bn (US$5.6bn).
  • The IPO is likely to be smaller and will depend on market conditions and the discount demanded on the H-shares. That in turn will determine index inclusion for the H-shares.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Toyota’s BIG Buyback Via Tender Offer from Banks & Insurers and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Toyota’s BIG Buyback Via Tender Offer from Banks & Insurers
  • The Beat Ideas: Garware Technical Fibre- A Niche Technical Textile Player
  • Kakao Group Founder Kim Beom-Su Gets Arrested – What’s Next?
  • Nidec (6594)| Q1 Beat, but Some One-Offs
  • Anhui Conch (914 HK): Turnaround in Sight
  • Prosus (PRX-NA): Profitable Growth, Elevated Discount
  • [Earnings Review] Schlumberger Beats Estimates as International Operations Shine
  • Inside NVIDIA’s China Play: Going Beyond U.S. Export Controls To Win Big In China!
  • Narrative and Numbers | Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) | FY24
  • [Earnings Review] Halliburton Dips as North America Slowdown Hits Q2 Revenue


Toyota’s BIG Buyback Via Tender Offer from Banks & Insurers

By Travis Lundy

  • With FY23 earnings in May, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) announced a ¥1trn buyback (410mm shares, 3.04%). Given shares were ¥3,599 the day before, it meant fewer shares or a Tender.
  • Like Honda (who hadn’t bought pre-offering), Toyota hadn’t bought back in the first couple of months. We knew there was bank and insurer overhang. That overhang lasts for years. 
  • Today, Toyota announced an “organised” 410mm share ¥1trln Tender Offer Buyback. Several financial institutions have announced plans to tender. This provides guidance on supply/demand for the rest of the year.

The Beat Ideas: Garware Technical Fibre- A Niche Technical Textile Player

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Garware Technical Fibres (GTFL IN) focuses on value-added products and has increased R&D investment significantly, with substantial growth in sports nets and geo-synthetics.
  • The company’s strong export market presence, high-margin profile, and diversification will improve the margins in the future. 
  • With refocus on the domestic market and growing demand for value-added products, Garware Technical Fibres (GTFL IN) is poised for significant growth with capex coming online.

Kakao Group Founder Kim Beom-Su Gets Arrested – What’s Next?

By Douglas Kim

  • As a result of the arrest of Kim Beom-Su, the near term impact on the Kakao companies (including Kakao Corp, Kakao Bank, Kakao Pay, and Kakao Games) is clearly negative.
  • Given that this is a highly publicized event, it is likely that this legal case will be PROLONGED and finally decided by the Supreme Court which could take several years.
  • Some of the scenarios include Kakao Group selling partial stakes in Kakao Bank and SM Entertainment but this is likely to get dragged on, resulting in further uncertainty.

Nidec (6594)| Q1 Beat, but Some One-Offs

By Mark Chadwick

  • Nidec reported Q1 OP of ¥60b, above the consensus of ¥53b. However this also included a gain from the consolidation of Nidec PSA
  • The key earnings driver was small precision motors, which are benefiting from recovery in HDD market and new earnings from cooling systems from AI Servers
  • We revise up our full year forecasts but do not believe the share price will react strongly to the “beat.” Maintain bullish view on valuations

Anhui Conch (914 HK): Turnaround in Sight

By Eric Chen

  • We believe Anhui Conch is near the end of a prolonged downturn. Earnings should have bottomed out in 1Q24, with highly visible sequential Q/Q improvements throughout the rest of 2024.
  • The recovery is not demand-driven but cost-led as implementation of new national standards resulting in higher production costs led to industry-wide price-hikes, benefiting Anhui Conch the low-cost producer.
  • We see mild rebound in cement demand in 2025 will pave the way for further price hikes, reinforce the company’s earnings recovery and catalyze valuation expansion.

Prosus (PRX-NA): Profitable Growth, Elevated Discount

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • The removal of their cross-holding structure has had a negligible effect on the respective discounts to NAV for Prosus NV (PRX NA) and Naspers (NPN SJ).
  • We have seen a remarkable turnaround in Prosus’s operating performance during FY2024 and the market will focus on whether the new CEO can achieve his ambitions for “profitable growth”.
  • The open-ended share repurchase program will continue as long as the discount remains “elevated”.

[Earnings Review] Schlumberger Beats Estimates as International Operations Shine

By Suhas Reddy

  • Schlumberger’s revenue grew 12.9% YoY and beat estimates by 0.7%, while its net profit rose by 7.65% YoY and beat estimates by 2.9%.
  • Revenue from North America grew 3% sequentially but fell 6% YoY due to lower drilling activity in the US.
  • Management expects low single-digit sequential revenue growth in Q3 2024 and free cash flow in H2 2024 to be higher than in H1 2024.

Inside NVIDIA’s China Play: Going Beyond U.S. Export Controls To Win Big In China!

By Baptista Research

  • NVIDIA Corporation, a titan in the semiconductor industry, has been at the forefront of artificial intelligence (AI) innovation, primarily due to its cutting-edge GPUs that power everything from deep learning algorithms to complex simulations.
  • As the company approaches its earnings report, investors are keenly observing the performance of its AI-driven products amidst a backdrop of global market dynamics and regulatory challenges.
  • The company’s recent advancements, such as the “Blackwell” chip series, promise significant improvements in processing speed and efficiency.

Narrative and Numbers | Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) | FY24

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) is a leading retail company in India known for its diverse range of fashion and lifestyle brands like Westside and Zudio. 
  • With its own labels, operating efficiencies, and leverage at work, Trent has been able to expand its margins substantially. 
  • We anticipate the strong operational performance to continue. We believe it will take a couple of years for peers to catch up to Trent’s execution prowess.

[Earnings Review] Halliburton Dips as North America Slowdown Hits Q2 Revenue

By Suhas Reddy

  • Halliburton’s Q2 revenue rises by 0.6% YoY, held back by an 8% YoY decline in revenue from North America. It missed its revenue estimates by 1.9%.
  • Strong performance from the international operations more than offset the slowdown in North America. Revenue from international markets rose 8% YoY.
  • For 2024, Halliburton forecasts a 10% YoY increase in international revenue, while North American revenue is expected to decline by 6-8% YoY.

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