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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Dec 27
0

Daily Brief Japan: Fujitsu General, IJTT Co., Ltd. and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Fujitsu General (6755) – Fujitsu Wants Out, May Force the Issue
  • IJTT (7315 JP): Risk/Reward as SPARX Bumps to JPY850

Fujitsu General (6755) – Fujitsu Wants Out, May Force the Issue

By Travis Lundy

  • In 2019, it became apparent Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP) wanted to sell down its stakes in non-core businesses (Shinko Electric, Fujitsu General, and FDK), and move on to better things.
  • In early January 2023, a Bloomberg article suggested a sale process. A 20 Jan 2023 article suggested Fujitsu General’s auction was imminent. I wrote a piece. It was not bullish.
  • The stock rose a bit, then fell 40+% through last week. Now another article suggests some urgency at Fujitsu. That changes things.

IJTT (7315 JP): Risk/Reward as SPARX Bumps to JPY850

By Arun George

  • IJTT Co., Ltd. (7315 JP) has recommended Sparx Group (8739 JP)’s revised tender offer of JPY850, 4.7% premium to its previous JPY812 offer. The revised offer has been declared final.
  • The Isuzu Motors (7202 JP) share repurchase price has risen 4.0% from JPY677 to JPY704. The tender closes on 15 January 2024. All other terms are unchanged.
  • The shares are trading above the revised terms. A final offer and no competing bidder points to an unfavourable risk/reward profile – a 21% downside on a deal break. 

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Dec 27
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Evidenced Based Analysis of Real Residential Property Price Indices Vs Major Asian Stock Indices and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Evidenced Based Analysis of Real Residential Property Price Indices Vs Major Asian Stock Indices
  • No Sign of Selling Advanced Scanners by ASML to China Customers, Implications
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]: ATAT/600754 CH/1211 HK/LI/XPEV/NIO/ZLAB/ARGX/9995 HK/3692 HK
  • [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]: 700 HK/NTES/BILI/002624 CH/300299 CH/3690 HK/AMZN/PDD/Shein
  • The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending December 22, 2023

Evidenced Based Analysis of Real Residential Property Price Indices Vs Major Asian Stock Indices

By Douglas Kim

  • We provide evidence based analysis of real residential property price indices in five major Asian countries/regions versus their stock indices including South Korea, China, Hong Kong, Australia, and New Zealand. 
  • Most of the peak in real residential properties of these countries occurred in 3Q 2021 to 1Q 2022.
  • If the real residential property prices continue to drag the overall economy in these major countries, this is likely to have a negative impact on their stock markets next year. 

No Sign of Selling Advanced Scanners by ASML to China Customers, Implications

By Andrew Lu

  • The oversupply of 8″/12″ mature technology and price war especially within China for the next 5 years is inevitable, especially negative for SMIC and Hua Hong Semi.
  • Production moving out of China semi demand might increase to 65-70% in next five years to benefit Globalfoundries, UMC, Vanguard, Powerchip mitigating impacts from rising domestic replacement in China.  
  • By building up in-house fabs, Huawei and HiSilicon supply chain vendors will be benefited the most like semiconductor equipment, material, fab construction, CoWoS interposer, and CoWoS packaging vendors.

[Blue Lotus Daily]: ATAT/600754 CH/1211 HK/LI/XPEV/NIO/ZLAB/ARGX/9995 HK/3692 HK

By Eric Wen

  • ATAT/600754 CH: Hotel industry update – Jinjiang disclose Oct-Nov RevPAR recovered to 105% of 2019, slightly better than industry average.(+)
  • 1211HK/LI/XPEV/NIO: Huawei Harmony Intelligent Mobility Alliance to establish independent stores(-)
  • ZLAB/ ARGX:  Efgartigimod failed two late stage indication trials (-)

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]: 700 HK/NTES/BILI/002624 CH/300299 CH/3690 HK/AMZN/PDD/Shein

By Ying Pan

  • 700HK/ NTES/ BILI:  The NPPA has released a draft for public opinion on the <Internet Game Governing Measures>(-/-/-)
  • 700HK/ NTES/ 002624CH/ 300299CH/ BILI:NPPA Announced December Imported Game Code Approvals(////+/+/+)
  • AMAZ/ SHEIN/ TEMU: Local merchants reportedly unhappy with some new AI features on Amazon (-/+/+)

The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending December 22, 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • It was a slightly negative week for most cannabis stocks, with the US-cannabis MSOS ETF dropping 2.11% and the global YOLO ETF ending exactly flat.
  • MSOS was -8.87% for the first four days of the week, then presidential pardons and Schedule III speculation sparked a rally.
  • On Friday, President Biden issued a proclamation to begin pardoning certain cannabis offenses.

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Dec 27
0

Daily Brief ECM: Pre-IPO Concord Healthcare Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Pre-IPO Concord Healthcare Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

Pre-IPO Concord Healthcare Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Concord’s financial performance seems improving on the surface,but a closer look reveals that the sudden explosive revenue increase in 2021 was mainly due to an acquisition, with potential risks behind.
  • We’ve doubts about Concord’s endogenous growth capability. If Concord’s hospitals cannot make a profit, then any further expansion is just a beautiful story and cannot bring expected returns to investors. 
  • Concord conducted a total of four rounds of financing, with a valuation of approximately RMB7.2 billion. However, based on our analysis, its valuation could be lower than peers.

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Dec 27
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Fujitsu General (6755) – Fujitsu Wants Out and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Fujitsu General (6755) – Fujitsu Wants Out, May Force the Issue
  • IJTT (7315 JP): Risk/Reward as SPARX Bumps to JPY850
  • EQD | The LONG Case for the Hang Seng Index
  • Namyang Dairy Products: Long Legal Dispute to Be Finally Decided by Supreme Court in January 2024
  • OreCorp: Silvercorp Switches To Off-Market Bid
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 24: Engie Close to US$1.2bn Index Flow

Fujitsu General (6755) – Fujitsu Wants Out, May Force the Issue

By Travis Lundy

  • In 2019, it became apparent Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP) wanted to sell down its stakes in non-core businesses (Shinko Electric, Fujitsu General, and FDK), and move on to better things.
  • In early January 2023, a Bloomberg article suggested a sale process. A 20 Jan 2023 article suggested Fujitsu General’s auction was imminent. I wrote a piece. It was not bullish.
  • The stock rose a bit, then fell 40+% through last week. Now another article suggests some urgency at Fujitsu. That changes things.

IJTT (7315 JP): Risk/Reward as SPARX Bumps to JPY850

By Arun George

  • IJTT Co., Ltd. (7315 JP) has recommended Sparx Group (8739 JP)’s revised tender offer of JPY850, 4.7% premium to its previous JPY812 offer. The revised offer has been declared final.
  • The Isuzu Motors (7202 JP) share repurchase price has risen 4.0% from JPY677 to JPY704. The tender closes on 15 January 2024. All other terms are unchanged.
  • The shares are trading above the revised terms. A final offer and no competing bidder points to an unfavourable risk/reward profile – a 21% downside on a deal break. 

EQD | The LONG Case for the Hang Seng Index

By Nico Rosti

  • The HSI INDEX closed last week down (CC=-1) at 16340.41, it is now down 5 months in a row (CC=-5), very OVERSOLD.
  • If this week the index keeps going down, it may find support soon and bounce next week. The alternative scenario is a longer correction, 2 weeks.
  • Support for a LONG trade, possibly pushed by a MONTHLY reversal,  should be found between 16200 and 15950: this is a highly speculative setup given the stubborn downtrend.

Namyang Dairy Products: Long Legal Dispute to Be Finally Decided by Supreme Court in January 2024

By Douglas Kim

  • The Korean Supreme Court’s ruling on the stock transfer lawsuit between Hahn & Company private equity fund and Namyang Dairy’s Chairman Hong Won-Sik is confirmed for 4 January 2024.
  • The expectation of Hahn & Co winning this legal dispute has positively impacted the share price of Namyang Dairy Products.
  • The higher probability scenario is for the Korean Supreme Court to rule in favor of Hahn & Co, agreeing with the decisions of the two lower courts in Korea.

OreCorp: Silvercorp Switches To Off-Market Bid

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 24 November, Silvercorp Metals (SVM CN) bumped its Scheme Offer for Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU) to A$0.19 in cash and 0.0967 new Silvercorp shares.
  • At a 40.1% premium to undisturbed and key shareholder Tim Goyder (5.14%) supportive, this looked done. Then Perseus (PRU AU) built a 19.9% stake and said it would vote no.
  • After postponing the Scheme meeting, Silvercorp and Orecorp have now agreed to an off-market takeover, on the same terms. The tendering threshold is 50.1%. 

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 24: Engie Close to US$1.2bn Index Flow

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in Europe and the annual index review takes place in September every year.
  • This annual index review usually results in some of the most significant index flow events in Europe every year typically amounting to billions of dollars.
  • In this insight, we take an early look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review in September 2024.

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Dec 27
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The 1Q24F Revenue Outlook and the Progress for Intel and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The 1Q24F Revenue Outlook and the Progress for Intel, MediaTek and Samsung.
  • 2024 High Conviction: Air China (753 HK) – Update on Proposed Share Placement
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: PC Shares Clearly On Santa’s Nice List; Soaring After AI PC Releases; Dell Trade
  • Qantas Airways (QAN AU | BUY | TP:AU$6.58): Smooth Operator
  • Thonburi Healthcare Group (THG TB): High Debt Has Clouded Near-Term Growth Prospect

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The 1Q24F Revenue Outlook and the Progress for Intel, MediaTek and Samsung.

By Patrick Liao

2024 High Conviction: Air China (753 HK) – Update on Proposed Share Placement

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Air China (H) (753 HK) is proposing a new share placement to raise Rmb6bn and HK$2bn. EPS dilution is manageable at 6% so we view the proposal positively.  
  • The new equity will enhance book value by 11.5% and lower its gearing by 103pp to 399.8%. The full subscription by the parent is also a vote of confidence. 
  • Recent share price weakness is due to the overall weakness in the Chinese equity market, but both macro and operating environments are improving. Selldown is unjustified.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: PC Shares Clearly On Santa’s Nice List; Soaring After AI PC Releases; Dell Trade

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • PC Shares Soaring — After 1) Intel’s AI Everywhere AI chip launch, 2) Launch of First AI PCs, 3) Micron’s positive outlook for PCs in its latest results
  • Micron Analysis, Industry Takeaways: Memory Market TAM New Highs into 2025; SK Hynix Trade
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at a Decent Short Level; ASE Short Interest Declining

Qantas Airways (QAN AU | BUY | TP:AU$6.58): Smooth Operator

By Mohshin Aziz

  • Qantas Airways (QAN AU) (QAN) is enjoying the best time of its life on industry consolidation benefits, demand exceeding supply to many sectors, and flourishing air cargo  
  • Domestic Australia is an ironclad goldmine, with a benign competitive environment as the archrival is busy restructuring. International sector capacity deployment is picking up, but still deep in underserved territory     
  • Target price AUD6.58 (+23% UPSIDE), based on 7x CY2024 PE – long-term historical mean. AUD500 million share buyback should provide downside support 

Thonburi Healthcare Group (THG TB): High Debt Has Clouded Near-Term Growth Prospect

By Tina Banerjee

  • Thonburi Healthcare Group (THG TB) has underperformed most of its peers over the last six months. Thus far this year, the company’s financial performance also remained unimpressive.
  • Despite a healthy 29% YoY increase in normalized medical services revenue, normalized net profit decreased 8% YoY in 3Q23 as the company experienced significantly higher financial costs.
  • Although the company is repaying debts, debt level is still elevated and is expected to remain so in the near-term due to upcoming capex plans.

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Dec 27
0

Daily Brief Macro: The Christmas Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Malaysian Reshuffle and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • The Christmas Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Malaysian Reshuffle, GoTo Plays Safe, and Alfamart

The Christmas Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Malaysian Reshuffle, GoTo Plays Safe, and Alfamart

By Angus Mackintosh

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Dec 26
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Seedheiwa and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Meldia DC (1739 JP) – Open House Group Cleans Up Sanei Architecture Sub in TOB.

Meldia DC (1739 JP) – Open House Group Cleans Up Sanei Architecture Sub in TOB.

By Travis Lundy

  • Open House (3288 JP) took over Sanei Architecture Planning (3228 JP) this past autumn when banks forced the issue over the former CEO/owner’s mafia ties discovered in an investigation.
  • Seedheiwa (1739 JP) now better known as Meldia DC, is ~60% held by Sanei Architecture Planning, and 3% by Mr Koike. It has debt. So it needs cleaning up too.
  • This is too light for minorities, and even lighter for whole co, but it’s a done deal. 

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Dec 26
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Seedheiwa and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Meldia DC (1739 JP) – Open House Group Cleans Up Sanei Architecture Sub in TOB.

Meldia DC (1739 JP) – Open House Group Cleans Up Sanei Architecture Sub in TOB.

By Travis Lundy

  • Open House (3288 JP) took over Sanei Architecture Planning (3228 JP) this past autumn when banks forced the issue over the former CEO/owner’s mafia ties discovered in an investigation.
  • Seedheiwa (1739 JP) now better known as Meldia DC, is ~60% held by Sanei Architecture Planning, and 3% by Mr Koike. It has debt. So it needs cleaning up too.
  • This is too light for minorities, and even lighter for whole co, but it’s a done deal. 

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Dec 26
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Gumi Inc, King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd., Symbio Holdings, NetEase , Mediatek Inc, Hollysys Automation Technologies, uPI Semiconductor Corp, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • SBI To Buy Gumi (3903) Shares To Up Stake to Near 30% (And Try To Avoid Impairment)
  • KYEC (2449.TT): The Revenue Outlook Will Be an Upward Pickup in 2024F.
  • ABB’s Offer For Symbio (SYM AU): 7th Feb Shareholder Vote
  • Tencent/Netease: Netease Tops ’23 League Table with Most Games Approved
  • MediaTek (2454.TT): The Revenue Is Likely Upside Around 10% QoQ in 1Q24F.
  • Hollysys (HOLI US): Dazheng Ups the Ante with a US$29.00 Competing Offer
  • Power Semiconductor Specialist Will Benefit from AI Yet Lagging Key Customers’ Share Price Rallies
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at a Decent Short Level; ASE Short Interest Declining

SBI To Buy Gumi (3903) Shares To Up Stake to Near 30% (And Try To Avoid Impairment)

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, SBI Holdings (8473 JP) made an announcement it would buy (up to) 3.0mm shares of Gumi Inc (3903 JP) shares between tomorrow and end-March 2024.
  • SBI already owns 8.8mm shares, and this would bring them close to 30.0%. 
  • SBI did not specifically say they would buy on market, but the next 400,000 shares would require a large shareholder filing amendment. 

KYEC (2449.TT): The Revenue Outlook Will Be an Upward Pickup in 2024F.

By Patrick Liao

  • It’s a greater chance that there will be an upward pickup in 2024F revenue for King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT), but the magnitude is hard to predict in 1H24.  
  • It is expected the revenue to decline by approximately -5% in 1Q24F.
  • However, the demand for CoWoS at a corporate level is expected to increase by about 10% in 2024F .

ABB’s Offer For Symbio (SYM AU): 7th Feb Shareholder Vote

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 1st November, cloud communication software outfit Symbio Holdings (SYM AU) backed Aussie Broadband Pty Ltd (ABB AU)‘s reduced cash/scrip Offer of A$2.99-$3.04/share, and entered into a Scheme agreement.
  • Superloop Ltd (SLC AU), which had previously made two cash/scrip Offers for Symbio, promptly walked.
  • Symbio’s Scheme Meeting has now been tabled for the 7 Feb, with implementation expected on the 28 February. The IE is supportive. This is done – and trading tight.

Tencent/Netease: Netease Tops ’23 League Table with Most Games Approved

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • China announced game approval for the December batch. The number of games approved has increased compared to recent months.
  • The pace of China game approval appears to be accelerating, to the same level as pre-tightening.
  • Netease scored two approvals while Tencent scored one. Netease finished the year with the most games approved.

MediaTek (2454.TT): The Revenue Is Likely Upside Around 10% QoQ in 1Q24F.

By Patrick Liao

  • For the upcoming revenue outlook, MediaTek Inc (2454 TT) is likely to reach an upside of around 10% QoQ in 1Q24F.
  • MediaTek plans to release 12 million units of the Dimensity 9000 series in 2024F.
  • Mediatek’s target markets include China, India, and Southeast Asia, with China remaining the primary market of focus.

Hollysys (HOLI US): Dazheng Ups the Ante with a US$29.00 Competing Offer

By Arun George

  • Dazheng (without Recco) has returned with a revised US$29.00 offer for Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), 9.4% higher than Ascendent Capital’s US$26.50 binding offer.
  • While Dazheng’s proposal represents an all-time high, it would likely not be a superior proposal based on the Ascendent merger agreement due to the clauses on financing and due diligence.
  • Nevertheless, to avoid the high risk that shareholders vote down the Ascendent offer and/or there are substantial dissenting shareholders, the Board will likely ask Ascendent to match Dazheng’s offer.  

Power Semiconductor Specialist Will Benefit from AI Yet Lagging Key Customers’ Share Price Rallies

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • UPI Semi is a specialist designer of electronic components and semiconductors for power management. Power management is a key performance factor for AI devices.
  • UPI’s clients include most of the world’s largest leading technology companies for semiconductor distribution and AI products.
  • UPI shares have lagged the strong performance of its clients — We see opportunity for UPI to now Outperform.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at a Decent Short Level; ASE Short Interest Declining

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: 10.5% Premium — Still a Good Level to Short the Spread
  • UMC: Trading at -1.1% Discount — Uncompelling, Wait for Deeper Discount
  • ASE: 8.8% Premium — Still Wait for Lower Levels Before Going Long

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Dec 26
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Irc Ltd, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • IRC Limited (1029 HK): A Wide Spread as the Conditional Offer Opens
  • Indocement Tunggal (INTP IJ) – A More Sustainable Cement Player

IRC Limited (1029 HK): A Wide Spread as the Conditional Offer Opens

By Arun George

  • The Irc Ltd (1029 HK) IFA opines that a mandatory conditional offer from Nikolai Levitskii (Chairman and 30.61% shareholder) at HK$0.118 per share is fair and reasonable. 
  • The offer is open, with the first closing date of 12 January 2024. The offer is conditional on the offeror and concert parties representing more than 50% of voting rights. 
  • While the offer is light, satisfying the minimum acceptance condition is possible. The risk/reward profile is favourable as the upside (25.5% spread) outweighs the downside (5.3% to the undistributed price). 

Indocement Tunggal (INTP IJ) – A More Sustainable Cement Player

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Indocement (INTP IJ) is trading close to 2-year lows, which seems unjustified given the ongoing recovery and a more positive outlook for FY2024. 
  • The company continues to grow its distribution reach to satisfy demand from IKN in Kalimantan, smelters in Sulawesi, and East Indonesia, with acquired Semen Grobogan feeding Central Java. 
  • Indocement (INTP IJ) continues to build on its sustainable credentials through the use of alternative fuels and reducing emissions and dust. Valauations are attractive trading on 6.8x FY2024E EV/EBITDA.

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