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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Dec 30
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Investigating the Use of SSF Listing Events as Fresh Flow Trading Opportunities in Korea and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Investigating the Use of SSF Listing Events as Fresh Flow Trading Opportunities in Korea
  • EQD | The S&P500 WEEKLY Rally Is At A Crucial Fork: Higher or Lower?

Investigating the Use of SSF Listing Events as Fresh Flow Trading Opportunities in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • The spot prices of the newly listed SSFs generally exhibited a notable upward trend. This trend was consistently more pronounced in KOSDAQ-listed stocks compared to KOSPI-listed ones.
  • Various factors, including actions by ETF operators, may contribute. Their SSF purchases could deepen contango, leading to temporary spot price increases through arb spread seekers anticipating this development.
  • We should focus on a potentially consistent price pattern persisting before a sufficient learning effect accumulates. The tight schedule after July increases the likelihood of similar opportunities next March.

EQD | The S&P500 WEEKLY Rally Is At A Crucial Fork: Higher or Lower?

By Nico Rosti

  • The S&P 500 INDEX has been closing up for 9 consecutive weeks (CC=+9). In theory it could go higher for another 3 weeks, but it is ultra-OVERBOUGHT.
  • The market has moved past the Tails resistance limit at 4747 this last week, rallying more than +15% from the bottom on October 26th.
  • A SHORT trade may not be effective but being prepared for a pullback is a good idea, maybe just to add positions at better prices (assuming the rally will continue).

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Dec 30
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: [Blue Lotus Logistics Sector Update]: Overseas E-Commerce Brews New Logistics Players and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • [Blue Lotus Logistics Sector Update]: Overseas E-Commerce Brews New Logistics Players
  • Micron. Earnings Puts & Takes. Take Your Pick
  • Prodia (PRDA IJ) – Diagnosing a Return to Healthy Profits
  • Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) – Dancing to a Digital Tune
  • Silergy (6415.TT): Chinese Analog IC Could Raise up Prices by About 15%.
  • AI PC Reality Check: PC Upgrade Cycle Ahead, But Worth a 50% 1M Acer Rally? Long Dell Vs. Short Acer

[Blue Lotus Logistics Sector Update]: Overseas E-Commerce Brews New Logistics Players

By Eric Wen

  • Ex-China e-commerce conducted by Chinese e-commerce platform will rise from 2022 GMV of US$ 61bn to US$ 297bn in 2025, with Pinduoduo, Alibaba, SHEIN and TikTok leading the charge.
  • These companies, however, are incubating their own last mile partners. The political uncertainty of Chinese e-commerce overseas is hindering development of the industry;
  • We see J&T as the main beneficiary of Chinese e-commerce overseas, which must eventually undergo an infrastructure upgrade…

Micron. Earnings Puts & Takes. Take Your Pick

By William Keating

  • Q1FY24 revenues of $4.7 billion, up 18% QoQ and up 16% YoY, and $100 million above guided high end, as already flagged on November 28
  • Q2FY24 guidance of $5.3 billion, a ~13% increase QoQ. This will once again be loss-making quarter to the tune of an EPS loss of 28 cents.
  • Things are looking up for Micron, but 2024 will still be a “recovery” year.

Prodia (PRDA IJ) – Diagnosing a Return to Healthy Profits

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Prodia (PRDA IJ) remains Indonesia’s relatively undiscovered diagnostics leader, with a strong market position, long-term relationships with the medical community, and an increasingly digital edge through its MyProdia app. 
  • The compamy continues to experience a high-base effect from COVID but has seen a dramatic increase in tests per visit as patients become increasingly helath conscious. 
  • Prodia (PRDA IJ) is significantly cheaper than its Indian comparables, trading on half the valuation, despite being a high-quality player tapping into a large increasingly health-conscious population.

Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) – Dancing to a Digital Tune

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) stands out from its SOE peers in the progress it has made in digitising its business through the Livin’ mobile app and KOPRA for corporate customers.
  • The bank continues to outperform in terms of loan growth and risk management, which is reflected in a higher ROE and lower credit costs as LAR continue to decline.  
  • Bank Mandiri should see a strong finish to the year well within guidance, with a healthy outlook for 2024 given its healthy capital position and competitive cost base. 

Silergy (6415.TT): Chinese Analog IC Could Raise up Prices by About 15%.

By Patrick Liao

  • A recent news report speculates that Analog Devices (ADI US)  is planning to raise prices by ~20%.
  • Silergy Corp (6415 TT) is reportedly considering a price increase of over 15% in the Chinese market.
  • We believe that now is a good time to invest in Silergy.

AI PC Reality Check: PC Upgrade Cycle Ahead, But Worth a 50% 1M Acer Rally? Long Dell Vs. Short Acer

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Taiwan PC makers have been top performers in the market; some may worry that their rallies have become over-extended by too much AI PC excitement.
  • We believe Dell may present a Long opportunity as the Long side to a Long/Short trade whereby one Sells Acer against it. Acer rose over 50% in December.
  • Dell will report its results end-February. We would Long Dell vs. Short Acer ahead of the Dell earnings event. We see more upside surprise potential in Dell.

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  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
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  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Dec 30
0

Daily Brief Macro: EM by EM #36: What Goldman got wrong about China in 2023 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • EM by EM #36: What Goldman got wrong about China in 2023
  • [Counting Beans #3]: Soybean Price Remains Solid But Headwinds On The Horizon
  • Is Coinbase Rally Running Out of Steam?
  • Oil Watch: Why is demand RECORD high, when we are told the opposite?
  • EUR-flation Watch: Consensus is OFF (again)
  • CX Daily: Why China Wants Brokerages to Merge and Why It Won’t Be Easy

EM by EM #36: What Goldman got wrong about China in 2023

By Emil Moller

  • Main conclusions up-front:It’s getting harder to disentangle politics from price movements in China, with the government becoming more involved in the equity market.
  • In stark contrast to their U.S. counterparts, Chinese banks are grappling with the weight of growing savings from consumers and businesses.
  • This surge is impacting their profitability, while the real estate sector’s challenges continue to linger.

[Counting Beans #3]: Soybean Price Remains Solid But Headwinds On The Horizon

By Pranay Yadav

  • Brazil’s weather forecast remains mixed on showers with heavy rains to arrive only in January. Rainfall in Brazil’s key agricultural region.
  • U.S. soybean net sales show a significant uptick, but recent lack of large export sales could signal a slowdown in demand.
  • Asset managers reduce long positions in soybean futures and options, showing a shift towards a bearish market outlook but prices remain resilient above USc 1,300.

Is Coinbase Rally Running Out of Steam?

By Pranay Yadav

  • Outperformance during rallies is usually followed by sharper corrections during downturns. Buy the rumour and sell the news is common in crypto markets.
  • Coinbase is a top ranking performer. The crypto exchange stock is up a whopping 454% YTD outperforming BTC by almost 3x.
  • While Coinbase may do well in a continued cryptocurrency bull market, it is worth considering whether the rally has already played out.

Oil Watch: Why is demand RECORD high, when we are told the opposite?

By Ulrik Simmelholt

  • Oil has been one of the few movers during the quiet days of Christmas and therefore we thought we would run down the news driving crude oil markets and deliver our takes.
  • We start with crude oil exports where the latest m/m numbers reveal that the US has seen a 4.65% drop in export numbers in line with seasonal effects.
  • The fewer seaborne barrels paired with tensions in the Red Sea have added to the momentum for oil prices, but we also note that the EIA has started to ramp up SPR buying again with contracts signed for the purchase of 3 million barrels.

EUR-flation Watch: Consensus is OFF (again)

By Andreas Steno

  • We interestingly see a pattern where Germany is used to predict MoM consensus elsewhere in December.
  • German consensus numbers look relatively sensible, while Spanish numbers are off.
  • Net/net, the ECB will likely get another dovish surprise relative to their base case, and we see more of such upcoming surprises in Q1-2024.

CX Daily: Why China Wants Brokerages to Merge and Why It Won’t Be Easy

By Caixin Global

  • Mergers / In Depth: Why China wants brokerages to merge and why it won’t be easy
  • Jobs / Year In Review: China’s downsized post-pandemic job market feels the strain 
  • Personnel /: China boots three arms executives from top political advisory body

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Dec 30
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Jusung Engineering and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Investigating the Use of SSF Listing Events as Fresh Flow Trading Opportunities in Korea

Investigating the Use of SSF Listing Events as Fresh Flow Trading Opportunities in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • The spot prices of the newly listed SSFs generally exhibited a notable upward trend. This trend was consistently more pronounced in KOSDAQ-listed stocks compared to KOSPI-listed ones.
  • Various factors, including actions by ETF operators, may contribute. Their SSF purchases could deepen contango, leading to temporary spot price increases through arb spread seekers anticipating this development.
  • We should focus on a potentially consistent price pattern persisting before a sufficient learning effect accumulates. The tight schedule after July increases the likelihood of similar opportunities next March.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Dec 30
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Prodia, Bank Mandiri Persero and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Prodia (PRDA IJ) – Diagnosing a Return to Healthy Profits
  • Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) – Dancing to a Digital Tune

Prodia (PRDA IJ) – Diagnosing a Return to Healthy Profits

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Prodia (PRDA IJ) remains Indonesia’s relatively undiscovered diagnostics leader, with a strong market position, long-term relationships with the medical community, and an increasingly digital edge through its MyProdia app. 
  • The compamy continues to experience a high-base effect from COVID but has seen a dramatic increase in tests per visit as patients become increasingly helath conscious. 
  • Prodia (PRDA IJ) is significantly cheaper than its Indian comparables, trading on half the valuation, despite being a high-quality player tapping into a large increasingly health-conscious population.

Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) – Dancing to a Digital Tune

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) stands out from its SOE peers in the progress it has made in digitising its business through the Livin’ mobile app and KOPRA for corporate customers.
  • The bank continues to outperform in terms of loan growth and risk management, which is reflected in a higher ROE and lower credit costs as LAR continue to decline.  
  • Bank Mandiri should see a strong finish to the year well within guidance, with a healthy outlook for 2024 given its healthy capital position and competitive cost base. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Dec 30
0

Daily Brief United States: Micron Technology, Soybean Active Contract, Crude Oil, Dell Technologies , S&P 500 INDEX and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Micron. Earnings Puts & Takes. Take Your Pick
  • [Counting Beans #3]: Soybean Price Remains Solid But Headwinds On The Horizon
  • Oil Watch: Why is demand RECORD high, when we are told the opposite?
  • AI PC Reality Check: PC Upgrade Cycle Ahead, But Worth a 50% 1M Acer Rally? Long Dell Vs. Short Acer
  • EQD | The S&P500 WEEKLY Rally Is At A Crucial Fork: Higher or Lower?

Micron. Earnings Puts & Takes. Take Your Pick

By William Keating

  • Q1FY24 revenues of $4.7 billion, up 18% QoQ and up 16% YoY, and $100 million above guided high end, as already flagged on November 28
  • Q2FY24 guidance of $5.3 billion, a ~13% increase QoQ. This will once again be loss-making quarter to the tune of an EPS loss of 28 cents.
  • Things are looking up for Micron, but 2024 will still be a “recovery” year.

[Counting Beans #3]: Soybean Price Remains Solid But Headwinds On The Horizon

By Pranay Yadav

  • Brazil’s weather forecast remains mixed on showers with heavy rains to arrive only in January. Rainfall in Brazil’s key agricultural region.
  • U.S. soybean net sales show a significant uptick, but recent lack of large export sales could signal a slowdown in demand.
  • Asset managers reduce long positions in soybean futures and options, showing a shift towards a bearish market outlook but prices remain resilient above USc 1,300.

Oil Watch: Why is demand RECORD high, when we are told the opposite?

By Ulrik Simmelholt

  • Oil has been one of the few movers during the quiet days of Christmas and therefore we thought we would run down the news driving crude oil markets and deliver our takes.
  • We start with crude oil exports where the latest m/m numbers reveal that the US has seen a 4.65% drop in export numbers in line with seasonal effects.
  • The fewer seaborne barrels paired with tensions in the Red Sea have added to the momentum for oil prices, but we also note that the EIA has started to ramp up SPR buying again with contracts signed for the purchase of 3 million barrels.

AI PC Reality Check: PC Upgrade Cycle Ahead, But Worth a 50% 1M Acer Rally? Long Dell Vs. Short Acer

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Taiwan PC makers have been top performers in the market; some may worry that their rallies have become over-extended by too much AI PC excitement.
  • We believe Dell may present a Long opportunity as the Long side to a Long/Short trade whereby one Sells Acer against it. Acer rose over 50% in December.
  • Dell will report its results end-February. We would Long Dell vs. Short Acer ahead of the Dell earnings event. We see more upside surprise potential in Dell.

EQD | The S&P500 WEEKLY Rally Is At A Crucial Fork: Higher or Lower?

By Nico Rosti

  • The S&P 500 INDEX has been closing up for 9 consecutive weeks (CC=+9). In theory it could go higher for another 3 weeks, but it is ultra-OVERBOUGHT.
  • The market has moved past the Tails resistance limit at 4747 this last week, rallying more than +15% from the bottom on October 26th.
  • A SHORT trade may not be effective but being prepared for a pullback is a good idea, maybe just to add positions at better prices (assuming the rally will continue).

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Dec 30
0

Daily Brief China: PDD Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • [Blue Lotus Logistics Sector Update]: Overseas E-Commerce Brews New Logistics Players

[Blue Lotus Logistics Sector Update]: Overseas E-Commerce Brews New Logistics Players

By Eric Wen

  • Ex-China e-commerce conducted by Chinese e-commerce platform will rise from 2022 GMV of US$ 61bn to US$ 297bn in 2025, with Pinduoduo, Alibaba, SHEIN and TikTok leading the charge.
  • These companies, however, are incubating their own last mile partners. The political uncertainty of Chinese e-commerce overseas is hindering development of the industry;
  • We see J&T as the main beneficiary of Chinese e-commerce overseas, which must eventually undergo an infrastructure upgrade…

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Dec 30
0

Daily Brief Japan: TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Key to Promote Diversity Isn’t Company’s Size but Rather Manager’s Judgment and Ability to Execute

Key to Promote Diversity Isn’t Company’s Size but Rather Manager’s Judgment and Ability to Execute

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The efforts of SMEs aren’t initiatives for disclosure by listed companies, but measures born out of situations that compelled them to promote diversity as integral part of their business operations.
  • Not only SMEs, but also listed companies with management keenly aware of business risks could promote diversity initiatives that are rooted in their business without taking time to make decisions.
  • The goal should be to make human capital and diversity a core competence rooted in the business, not a passive initiative such as doing it for disclosure.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Dec 30
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Jusung Engineering, Micron Technology, Silergy Corp, Dell Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Investigating the Use of SSF Listing Events as Fresh Flow Trading Opportunities in Korea
  • Micron. Earnings Puts & Takes. Take Your Pick
  • Silergy (6415.TT): Chinese Analog IC Could Raise up Prices by About 15%.
  • AI PC Reality Check: PC Upgrade Cycle Ahead, But Worth a 50% 1M Acer Rally? Long Dell Vs. Short Acer

Investigating the Use of SSF Listing Events as Fresh Flow Trading Opportunities in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • The spot prices of the newly listed SSFs generally exhibited a notable upward trend. This trend was consistently more pronounced in KOSDAQ-listed stocks compared to KOSPI-listed ones.
  • Various factors, including actions by ETF operators, may contribute. Their SSF purchases could deepen contango, leading to temporary spot price increases through arb spread seekers anticipating this development.
  • We should focus on a potentially consistent price pattern persisting before a sufficient learning effect accumulates. The tight schedule after July increases the likelihood of similar opportunities next March.

Micron. Earnings Puts & Takes. Take Your Pick

By William Keating

  • Q1FY24 revenues of $4.7 billion, up 18% QoQ and up 16% YoY, and $100 million above guided high end, as already flagged on November 28
  • Q2FY24 guidance of $5.3 billion, a ~13% increase QoQ. This will once again be loss-making quarter to the tune of an EPS loss of 28 cents.
  • Things are looking up for Micron, but 2024 will still be a “recovery” year.

Silergy (6415.TT): Chinese Analog IC Could Raise up Prices by About 15%.

By Patrick Liao

  • A recent news report speculates that Analog Devices (ADI US)  is planning to raise prices by ~20%.
  • Silergy Corp (6415 TT) is reportedly considering a price increase of over 15% in the Chinese market.
  • We believe that now is a good time to invest in Silergy.

AI PC Reality Check: PC Upgrade Cycle Ahead, But Worth a 50% 1M Acer Rally? Long Dell Vs. Short Acer

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Taiwan PC makers have been top performers in the market; some may worry that their rallies have become over-extended by too much AI PC excitement.
  • We believe Dell may present a Long opportunity as the Long side to a Long/Short trade whereby one Sells Acer against it. Acer rose over 50% in December.
  • Dell will report its results end-February. We would Long Dell vs. Short Acer ahead of the Dell earnings event. We see more upside surprise potential in Dell.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Dec 30
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Crude Oil and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Oil Watch: Why is demand RECORD high, when we are told the opposite?

Oil Watch: Why is demand RECORD high, when we are told the opposite?

By Ulrik Simmelholt

  • Oil has been one of the few movers during the quiet days of Christmas and therefore we thought we would run down the news driving crude oil markets and deliver our takes.
  • We start with crude oil exports where the latest m/m numbers reveal that the US has seen a 4.65% drop in export numbers in line with seasonal effects.
  • The fewer seaborne barrels paired with tensions in the Red Sea have added to the momentum for oil prices, but we also note that the EIA has started to ramp up SPR buying again with contracts signed for the purchase of 3 million barrels.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free