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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Most Read: Exedy Corp, Nippon Express Holdings, PCCW Ltd, KB Financial, BrainBees Solutions, KT Corp, Fancl Corp, China Longyuan Power, Asia Cement China and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • [JAPAN ACTIVISM] – Murakami Group Bigger and Bolder on Exedy – STILL Room to Run
  • Japan – Passive Selling in a Few Weeks & Shorts Build Up
  • StubWorld: PCCW’s Premium To NAV Is Unsustainable
  • HK RE Series (3): Global Macro Starts to Turn More Supportive, Stock Valuation Is Compelling
  • Alpha Generating Opportunities from the Corporate Value Up Disclosures on the KIND System
  • Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO – Not Very Attractive but It Is Relatively Cheap
  • Asian Dividend Gems: KT Corp
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A:Ansarada, Southern Cross Gold, A8 New Media, CPMC, Mandala Multifinance, Fancl
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 2 Aug 2024): Policy Commentary Supports Consumers, AH Premia Drifting Wider
  • Asia Cement China (743 HK): Scheme Vote on 26 August Has a High Deal Break Risk


[JAPAN ACTIVISM] – Murakami Group Bigger and Bolder on Exedy – STILL Room to Run

By Travis Lundy

  • In late May, Toyota Group member Aisin (7259 JP) announced it would sell its 37% stake in Exedy Corp (7278 JP). The market dropped. But that was an opportunity. 
  • There was an announcement, a ToSTNeT-3 buyback, the offering, and more buyback to come. On 30 May, I said “Buy the deal, buy in the market. It’s cheap and vulnerable.”
  • Exedy is up 21% since. On 17 June, activist Murakami-san’s group went over 5%. Then they bought more. Now they have 15%. Or more. Still cheap. Still vulnerable. 

Japan – Passive Selling in a Few Weeks & Shorts Build Up

By Brian Freitas

  • Up to 12 stocks could be deleted from global passive portfolios in August. The deletion will lead to liquidity events where trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.
  • There has been a buildup of shorts on nearly all these stocks though the extent of the pre-positioning varies.
  • The increase in shorts is smaller than the estimated passive selling, though there is a fair amount of variability across the names. 

StubWorld: PCCW’s Premium To NAV Is Unsustainable

By David Blennerhassett

  • Continued stub losses are one thing. Ballooning PCCW Ltd (8 HK) parent debt is another. 
  • Preceding my comments on PCCW and HKT Ltd (6823 HK) are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • .These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

HK RE Series (3): Global Macro Starts to Turn More Supportive, Stock Valuation Is Compelling

By Jacob Cheng

  • We look at the global macro themes that are impacting the equity market including the US election, the Fed and China’s latest rate cut
  • We also look at the latest condition in Hong Kong, including the rates, the economy and the physical RE market
  • HK RE stocks continue to trade at compelling valuation, but fund flows are needed if we want a re-rating

Alpha Generating Opportunities from the Corporate Value Up Disclosures on the KIND System

By Douglas Kim

  • One of the key takeaways of the Corporate Value Up disclosures on the KIND system is that it could potentially lead to alpha generating investing opportunities. 
  • Since the last week of May, there have been 7 companies that provided specific Corporate Value up programs; (4 major financials) have outperformed KOSPI.
  • Companies such as KB Financial and Shinhan Financial that provide more meaningful Corporate Value Up action plans are likely to have greater impact on their share prices. 

Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO – Not Very Attractive but It Is Relatively Cheap

By Sumeet Singh

  • BrainBees Solutions is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • FirstCry is India’s largest multi-channel retailing platform for Mothers’, Babies’ and Kids’ products in terms of GMV, for the year ending Dec 2022 (9M23), according to RedSeer.
  • In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we will talk about valuations.

Asian Dividend Gems: KT Corp

By Douglas Kim

  • We have a Positive view of KT Corp (030200 KS) due to three main reasons.
  • First, KT has started to implement aggressive capital return policy (returning 50% of net income through dividends and share buybacks/cancellations). Two other reasons include Corporate Value Up and higher Smartscore.
  • KT Corp has been the best performing stock among the three major Korean telcos in the past one year. KT Corp’s shares are up 27.9% in the past one year.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A:Ansarada, Southern Cross Gold, A8 New Media, CPMC, Mandala Multifinance, Fancl

By David Blennerhassett


A/H Premium Tracker (To 2 Aug 2024): Policy Commentary Supports Consumers, AH Premia Drifting Wider

By Travis Lundy

  • The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
  • SOUTHBOUND inflow strong. SOEs, Tencent, and Xiaomi leading. NORTHBOUND down four of five days this week, but net inflows on the week. Consumer discretionary bad.
  • Hs underperformed As again. 20d AH Premia performance is at the top of its multi-year range. I’d expect AH Premia to decline the next couple of weeks.

Asia Cement China (743 HK): Scheme Vote on 26 August Has a High Deal Break Risk

By Arun George

  • Asia Cement China (743 HK)’s IFA opines that Asia Cement (1102 TT)’s HK$3.22 privatisation offer is fair and reasonable. The scheme vote is on 26 August. 
  • The IFA valiantly justifies that an offer materially below net cash is fair and reasonable. The crux of the justification lies in the fortuitous disclosure of material capex requirements.
  • While no shareholder holds the 10% blocking stake, the high AGM minority participation rates, retail opposition and unconvincing IFA report suggest a high chance of a deal break.

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Daily Brief Utilities: China Longyuan Power, China National Nuclear Power C and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 2 Aug 2024): Policy Commentary Supports Consumers, AH Premia Drifting Wider
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 2 Aug 2024): Small Net Positive Week But…


A/H Premium Tracker (To 2 Aug 2024): Policy Commentary Supports Consumers, AH Premia Drifting Wider

By Travis Lundy

  • The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
  • SOUTHBOUND inflow strong. SOEs, Tencent, and Xiaomi leading. NORTHBOUND down four of five days this week, but net inflows on the week. Consumer discretionary bad.
  • Hs underperformed As again. 20d AH Premia performance is at the top of its multi-year range. I’d expect AH Premia to decline the next couple of weeks.

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 2 Aug 2024): Small Net Positive Week But…

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 3.2bn of A-shares. Wednesday was a BIG buy day. Every other day was a net sell. 
  • HK and Mainland large caps generally performed equally, down but much better than the rest of the world, but Hs in H/A pairs underperformed.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Tencent and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 2 Aug 2024); ETFs Get Sold; Tencent, SOEs, Utilities Bought


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 2 Aug 2024); ETFs Get Sold; Tencent, SOEs, Utilities Bought

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$9.2bn this week (now 26wks in a row of net buying), on smallish two-way volumes.
  • I’ve thought national team was buying banks for months. They were gone for a couple of weeks. Feels like they are back. 
  • There were three ETFs in the top five SOUTHBOUND sells this past week, reversing last week. Energy, Utilities, Telecoms bought. 

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Daily Brief Consumer: Fancl Corp, Ola Electric and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A:Ansarada, Southern Cross Gold, A8 New Media, CPMC, Mandala Multifinance, Fancl
  • Weekly Deals Digest (04 Aug) – Ola, Brainbees, A8, Asia Cement, CPMC, Fancl, Sun Corp, Heiwa


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A:Ansarada, Southern Cross Gold, A8 New Media, CPMC, Mandala Multifinance, Fancl

By David Blennerhassett


Weekly Deals Digest (04 Aug) – Ola, Brainbees, A8, Asia Cement, CPMC, Fancl, Sun Corp, Heiwa

By Arun George


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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Asia Cement China, Rio Tinto Ltd, BP PLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia Cement China (743 HK): Scheme Vote on 26 August Has a High Deal Break Risk
  • Asia Cement (743 HK): 26th August Vote. Shareholders Should Reject Terms
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Rio Tinto, Ryohin Keikaku/Fast Retailing, WH Group, ThaiBev/F&N, PCCW
  • [Earnings Review] BP Surges Past Profit Estimates on Soaring Oil Prices and Robust Retail Earnings


Asia Cement China (743 HK): Scheme Vote on 26 August Has a High Deal Break Risk

By Arun George

  • Asia Cement China (743 HK)’s IFA opines that Asia Cement (1102 TT)’s HK$3.22 privatisation offer is fair and reasonable. The scheme vote is on 26 August. 
  • The IFA valiantly justifies that an offer materially below net cash is fair and reasonable. The crux of the justification lies in the fortuitous disclosure of material capex requirements.
  • While no shareholder holds the 10% blocking stake, the high AGM minority participation rates, retail opposition and unconvincing IFA report suggest a high chance of a deal break.

Asia Cement (743 HK): 26th August Vote. Shareholders Should Reject Terms

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 5th June, Chinese cement play Asia Cement China (743 HK) announced a rubbish HK$3.22/share Offer from its parent Asia Cement (1102 TT).
  • This best & final cash Offer was a ~ 45% premium to undisturbed, and a 37% discount to FY23’s net cash. It’s a 39% discount to 1H24’s net cash.
  • The Scheme Doc is now out, with a 26th August independent shareholder vote. And payment (if it were to occur) on 20th September. The IFA (unsurprisingly) says fair and reasonable. 

Last Week in Event SPACE: Rio Tinto, Ryohin Keikaku/Fast Retailing, WH Group, ThaiBev/F&N, PCCW

By David Blennerhassett

  • At a time when the LSE has dumbed down the checks and balances for listed companies, now may be the right time to consider collapsing Rio Tinto (RIO AU)‘s DLC.
  • Re: Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal, long Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) vs. Fast Retailing (9983 JP), but this may not last. It has worked very well. 
  • Unless we see a significant (and sustainable) reversal in WH Group (288 HK)‘s US/Mexican ops in the interim results, now hardly appears the opportune time for a Smithfield IPO.

[Earnings Review] BP Surges Past Profit Estimates on Soaring Oil Prices and Robust Retail Earnings

By Suhas Reddy

  • BP’s operating revenue declined by 2.55% YoY, falling short of estimates by 9.78%, while underlying net profit increased by 6.45% YoY, exceeding EPS estimates by 8.75%.
  • Strong performance from the Oil Production & Operations and Customers & Products segments drove underlying net profit growth.
  • BP announced a 10% increase in its interim dividend to 8 cents/share and completed USD 1.75 billion in share buybacks in Q2.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Otsuka Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): H1 Revenue Rises 17% on Rexulti; Picks Up Jnana Therapeutics for $800M


Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): H1 Revenue Rises 17% on Rexulti; Picks Up Jnana Therapeutics for $800M

By Tina Banerjee

  • During 1H24 Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) reported 18% YoY growth in revenue from pharmaceuticals segment to ¥767B, mainly driven by a 27% YoY growth in Rexulti revenue to ¥122B.
  • The company has revised upward 2024 revenue and business profit, while reduced 2024 operating and net profit guidance due to the recording of an impairment loss.
  • Otsuka is acquiring Jnana Therapeutics for $800M. The transaction includes JNT-517, a potential first-in-class oral treatment for Phenylketonuria, a rare inherited metabolic disorder. The acquisition will close in 3Q24.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Aug 2nd): Aia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Aug 2nd): Aia, Meituan, Hsbc
  • Hong Kong Connect Flows (July): 11 Months of Inflows
  • Northbound Flows (July): Two Months of Outflows


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Aug 2nd): Aia, Meituan, Hsbc

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Aug 2nd based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), HSBC (5 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Meituan (3690 HK), Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK).

Hong Kong Connect Flows (July): 11 Months of Inflows

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
  • We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
  • We highlight inflows into ICBC, Tencent, CCB, Yankuang, Sinopec, and outflows from HSBC, Meituan, HKEx, China Hongqiao, CNOOC. 

Northbound Flows (July): Two Months of Outflows

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
  • Consumer Staples ($962 million worth of outflows), Consumer Discretionary ($561 million worth of outflows) led the outflows (first chart below).
  • We highlight monthly outflows for CATL, Zhongji, Moutai, Wuliangye, Mindray.

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Daily Brief ESG: Reducing Cross Shareholdings Is Necessary to Increase the Effectiveness of Engagement and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Reducing Cross Shareholdings Is Necessary to Increase the Effectiveness of Engagement
  • Agile Group – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics


Reducing Cross Shareholdings Is Necessary to Increase the Effectiveness of Engagement

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Signs of change in companies that have improved their capital profitability and valuations can be seen in their policy shareholdings/total assets. 
  • Companies with fewer policy shareholdings, as measured by (policy shareholdings + equity holdings)/total assets, tend to have the best values for valuation, ROE, and ROA, and vice versa.
  • To measure the seriousness of reducing cross-shareholdings, as long as the company has the voting right of cross-shareholdings in retirement benefit trust, the deemed shares should be included in cross-shareholdings.

Agile Group – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We view Agile Group’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental and Social scores. That said, Governance is “Weak”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.


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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Albemarle’s BIG Failure and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Albemarle’s BIG Failure
  • The ROI of AI (It’s a Dollar Auction)
  • # 40 India Insight: Tata Motors Demerger, TVS Motor Rise, Hero FinCorp Files DRHP
  • China’s Lithium Mountain Grows as Oversupply Drags Down Prices Further
  • US Banks – NY CRE Sold at 97% Discount, HFD Weekly Data Shows Small US Banks At Most Risk
  • Hardman & Co Monthly: August 2024
  • Consumer Tales, Aug#1:  Hola Ola Electric, Cheers Premium Beer, Thais to Get Handout
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 02/08/2024


Albemarle’s BIG Failure

By Money of Mine

  • Over 90 resources companies released their quarterly reports on the last day of July, representing 15-20% of ASX-listed resources companies
  • Companies such as MC Mining, Bastion Minerals, and QX Resources reported financial struggles and cash balance concerns
  • Some companies, like Forrestania and African Gold, disclosed significant expenses on staff, admin, and related party transactions, raising questions about financial management and transparency.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


The ROI of AI (It’s a Dollar Auction)

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • The single most complicated question to answer is what exactly the ROI of AI is.
  • You can easily argue that there is some value and that it can be done quite profitably when you are just inferencing the model for money.
  • The problem is that when you peer a little closer at the training costs, particularly the cost of scaling models at the frontier, it’s starting to become hard to answer. What exactly is the ROI?

# 40 India Insight: Tata Motors Demerger, TVS Motor Rise, Hero FinCorp Files DRHP

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Tata Motors plans to split into TML Commercial Vehicles and a merged PV, EV, and JLR entity, creating focused companies.
  • TVS Motor’s July sales rose 9%, with EV sales soaring 61%, reflecting strong growth.
  • Hero FinCorp seeks INR 3,668 crore through an IPO, aiming to boost capital for lending activities.

China’s Lithium Mountain Grows as Oversupply Drags Down Prices Further

By Caixin Global

  • China’s lithium supply glut is worsening, with output expected to expand by 41% this year, fueling a steeper downward trend in prices for this material, a crucial component of electric vehicle batteries.
  • China’s domestic production of lithium carbonate is expected to reach 650,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 41%, according to Fan Runze, a senior industry analyst at research institute Antaike.
  • With more supply expected to be released in the second half, lithium prices could drop to their lowest point of the year, said Fan at a Wednesday conference.

US Banks – NY CRE Sold at 97% Discount, HFD Weekly Data Shows Small US Banks At Most Risk

By Daniel Tabbush

  • The headline from The Nikkei is incredible: “NY Office Building Sold at ‘97% Discount.’ This is a 23 floor building in midtown Manhattan which had 35% occupancy, built in 1960’s.
  • Banks hold office buildings as collateral for their CRE loans, basically. They also hold other buildings at collateral, like shopping malls and strip malls.
  • The risk for US banks from worsening collateral values in CRE is much greater at small US banks (outside the largest 25 by assets) where they have high exposure.

Hardman & Co Monthly: August 2024

By Hardman & Co

  • Feature article: Solid IICs, cash-consolidating REIFs Since the beginning of 2024, the share prices of Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs) have generally remained lacklustre, failing to recover from the losses experienced in 2023.
  • A significant factor contributing to this trend has been the sharp rise in interest rates since 2021, which has negatively impacted the sector due to the increased yields on “risk-free” 10-year gilts.
  • The recent change in the UK government may bring some relief, with potential relaxations in planning approvals for new onshore wind and solar plants.

Consumer Tales, Aug#1:  Hola Ola Electric, Cheers Premium Beer, Thais to Get Handout

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Welcome to Consumer Tales & Trends, your weekly roundup of the latest corporate developments, investment reports and sector events in the consumer industry.
  • Ola Electric (1700674D IN) ‘s IPO launch, pricing, valuation and an attempt to peek into its yet undefined future growth in the rapidly expanding EV space.
  • Alcoholic beverage industry is not really in high spirits post-COVID. Worst could be past for Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK) with likely recovery in premium beers and commodity price tailwinds.

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 02/08/2024

By Auctus Advisors

  • ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target of A$0.75 per share: Reflections on Welchau – IIndependent consultants have calculated that each of the three reservoirs encountered at Welchau (Reifling – 128 metres, Steinalm -118 metres and the Guttenstein – 111 metres) are hydrocarbon bearing with uncertainty on the hydrocarbon type.
  • Laboratory work on the Steinalm reservoir has confirmed the full properties ofthe 43° API light sweet oil that was recovered in an MDT sample run in the Steinalm Formation.
  • The vertical extent of this light oil in the Steinalm or in the shallower Reifling and deeper Guttenstein is uncertain and there is no clear evidence of a hydrocarbon-water contact in any of the reservoir formations based on the open hole wireline log data.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends


Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

By Joe Jasper

  • We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.
  • Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.
  • Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)

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