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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Consumer: Thai Beverage, Ola Electric, Alibaba Group Holding , TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Thai Bev to Get F&N Stake from Promoters At Book Value than Fair Market Value
  • India Channel Insight | What Is the EV Scene in India?
  • [Blue Lotus E-Commerce Sector Update]: Tax Reform a Light at the End of the Tunnel for Ecommerce
  • In Addition to Efforts by Individual Companies Values Endorsing Gender Inequality Must Be Removed


Thai Bev to Get F&N Stake from Promoters At Book Value than Fair Market Value

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Thai Beverage(THBEVSP)‘s  proposed swap deal involves acquiring a 41.3% stake in F&N from promoters, seemingly at book value than fair market value, expected in case of an arms length transaction.
  • Fraser And Neave (FNN SP)  holds a 20.3% stake in Vietnam Dairy(VNM VN), Vietnam’s leading dairy player, which is now trading at nearly a 40% discount to the investment value.
  • Understanding TCC Assets’ ownership history of F&N may help clarify the deal’s valuation rationale.

India Channel Insight | What Is the EV Scene in India?

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • We spoke with multiple channels covering 3Ws, 2Ws, and 4Ws to understand the current dynamics of the Electric Vehicle (EV) scene in India.
  • Adoption of E-3 and E-4 Wheelers is hindered by high prices, range issues, inadequate charging infrastructure, and platform stability concerns.
  • E-2 Wheelers show resilience with stable sales led by aggressive pricing from Ola Electric (1700674D IN)

[Blue Lotus E-Commerce Sector Update]: Tax Reform a Light at the End of the Tunnel for Ecommerce

By Ying Pan

  • Early 6/18 pulled June sales into May, leading to disappointing June NBS data. Combined, online retail grew 5.1% yoy in May/June, and 6.4% yoy in 2Q24. 
  • PDD remained the top shelf-ecommerce platform with GMV growing ~20%, followed by Taobao/Tmall (TTG) at ~6-7%, and JD and VIPS at ~2-3% yoy. 
  • We expect JD and BABA to report slight earnings beats and guide upbeat on continued profitability improvement in 2H24. 

In Addition to Efforts by Individual Companies Values Endorsing Gender Inequality Must Be Removed

By Aki Matsumoto

  • High ratio of female non-regular workers and low ratio of women in management positions are factors behind the gender wage gap. Government expects to correct the gap in individual companies.
  • Companies should improve making it easier for employees returning jobs after temporary leave for childcare/childbirth, and treating them in the same position they were before leaving after temporary leave.
  • In order for women to have access to higher education and for women to work without leaving the workforce temporarily, the values that endorse gender inequality must be removed.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jul 19th): Meituan and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jul 19th): Meituan, Tencent, Hsbc


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jul 19th): Meituan, Tencent, Hsbc

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jul 19th based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Meituan (3690 HK), Tencent (700 HK), HSBC (5 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), AIA (1299 HK).

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Daily Brief ESG: In Addition to Efforts by Individual Companies Values Endorsing Gender Inequality Must Be Removed and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • In Addition to Efforts by Individual Companies Values Endorsing Gender Inequality Must Be Removed
  • International Container – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics


In Addition to Efforts by Individual Companies Values Endorsing Gender Inequality Must Be Removed

By Aki Matsumoto

  • High ratio of female non-regular workers and low ratio of women in management positions are factors behind the gender wage gap. Government expects to correct the gap in individual companies.
  • Companies should improve making it easier for employees returning jobs after temporary leave for childcare/childbirth, and treating them in the same position they were before leaving after temporary leave.
  • In order for women to have access to higher education and for women to work without leaving the workforce temporarily, the values that endorse gender inequality must be removed.

International Container – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess International Container’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”. 


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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary


Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary

By Joe Jasper

  • Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to ride this trend higher and buy dips as long as ACWI-US and EEM-US remain above supports at $110 and $41-$42.
  • In our previous Int’l Compass (June 27) we discussed the rotation that we believed was starting, whereby global Technology (IXN-US) would consolidate as investors rotate to laggard areas.
  • This rotation has continued while Technology goes through a healthy consolidation. Continue to focus on other more value-oriented Sectors while Technology/growth consolidates

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): [CB 28/2024]: Volatile Week for Grains; Massive US Harvest Leads Bearish Sentiment and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • [CB 28/2024]: Volatile Week for Grains; Massive US Harvest Leads Bearish Sentiment
  • Japan Weekly | Political Uncertainty Drives Markets
  • Japan Morning Connection – 19 July, 2024
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 19/07/2024


[CB 28/2024]: Volatile Week for Grains; Massive US Harvest Leads Bearish Sentiment

By Amrutha Raj

  • Wheat Prices declined over a large US harvest forecast, but bargain buying and strong demand over cheaper Russian wheat offered support.
  • Corn Prices declined but tighter stocks kept a leash on losses. Weather concerns in Ukraine and the US provided some support, while record high ethanol production suggests strong demand.
  • Soy Prices fell the most due to ample global supplies and doubts about Chinese demand. A larger Brazilian crop estimate adds downward pressure.

Japan Weekly | Political Uncertainty Drives Markets

By Mark Chadwick

  • The Nikkei lost over 1,000 points this week as political uncertainty impacted markets. 
  • In terms of sectors, the semiconductor sector took the brunt of the selling in Japan. Disco, Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Screen, Lasertec and Ulvac were amongst the worst performers
  • Small cap stocks performed well in Tokyo. SanSan’s share price rose 31% following a strong financial report and positive forward guidance.

Japan Morning Connection – 19 July, 2024

By Andrew Jackson

  • The market had mixed results with SOX +0.51%, Nasdaq -0.7%, SPX -0.78%, and Russell -1.85%. UST10 yields rose 1.07% to 4.2%, and the yen weakened to 157.36. 
  • Commodities saw copper -2.6%, nickel -0.2%, and Brent crude -0.34%. Tech stocks varied, with Monolithic Power and Broadcom up while power semis fell. Semiconductors started strong but ended mixed.
  • Japanese homebuilders with large US exposures may be strong. 6146 Disco expected to dip. Intuitive Surgical rose 5% on strong 2Q results, which could positively impact 6988 Sysmex. 

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 19/07/2024

By Auctus Advisors

  • Condor Energies (CDR CN)C: Signing first LNG framework agreement in Kazakhstan – Condor has signed a first LNG Framework Agreement for the utilization of LNG to fuel Kazakhstan’s rail locomotives.
  • The agreement was also signed by Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ), the national railway operator of Kazakhstan and Wabtec Corporation, a U.S. based locomotive manufacturer with existing facilities in Kazakhstan.
  • KTZ and Wabtec previously signed a memorandum of understanding which includes modernization work to retrofit KTZ’s mainline locomotive fleet for LNG usage and incorporate LNG into new build locomotives.

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Daily Brief ECM: Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): The Current Playbook and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): The Current Playbook
  • India Channel Insight | What Is the EV Scene in India?


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): The Current Playbook

By Arun George

  • Since the US$2.0 billion secondary placement announcement, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)’s shares are down 5.6% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,520 per share (8 July).
  • Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Kokusai’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.
  • The offering will likely be priced on 22 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.

India Channel Insight | What Is the EV Scene in India?

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • We spoke with multiple channels covering 3Ws, 2Ws, and 4Ws to understand the current dynamics of the Electric Vehicle (EV) scene in India.
  • Adoption of E-3 and E-4 Wheelers is hindered by high prices, range issues, inadequate charging infrastructure, and platform stability concerns.
  • E-2 Wheelers show resilience with stable sales led by aggressive pricing from Ola Electric (1700674D IN)

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: TSMC Shatters Q2 Expectations Bolstered by Strong AI Chip Demand and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • TSMC Shatters Q2 Expectations Bolstered by Strong AI Chip Demand
  • TotalEnergies Hits Roadblock with Lower Gas Prices and Refining Margins
  • [Blue Lotus E-Commerce Sector Update]: Tax Reform a Light at the End of the Tunnel for Ecommerce
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (20-Jul-2024): Micron samples MRDIMMs for AI, HPC.
  • Intuitive Surgical (ISRG US): Beat-And-Raise 2Q24; Strong Procedure Growth; Solid Da Vinci 5 Rollout
  • Zuora Inc (ZUO) – Thursday, Apr 18, 2024
  • Cara Therapeutics Exploring A Potential Sale But Can It Really Get Acquired? – Financial Forecasts
  • MoneyHero Group: A Promising Q1 2024 Result With Lots To Look Forward To!!
  • Edenred Se (EDEN) – Friday, Apr 19, 2024
  • Five9 Under Pressure From Anson Funds To Explore A Potential Sale! 4 Reasons Why It Could Be An Attractive Acquisition Target! – Financial Forecasts


TSMC Shatters Q2 Expectations Bolstered by Strong AI Chip Demand

By Uttkarsh Kohli

  • TSMC’s Q2 revenue hits NT$673.51 billion, exceeding expectations amid strong demand for advanced chips.
  • TSMC to grapple with tight supply through 2025, striving to meet soaring global demand across various sectors.
  • TSMC on track for 2025 mass production of 2nm chips, enhancing capabilities for more powerful and efficient technologies.

TotalEnergies Hits Roadblock with Lower Gas Prices and Refining Margins

By Suhas Reddy

  • TotalEnergies’ robust hydrocarbon production in Q2 2024 will be offset by lower gas realizations and refining margins.
  • Higher utilisation rates are expected to partially mitigate reduced refining margins in Europe and the Middle East.
  • Seasonal factors are expected to lower the Integrated Power segment’s adjusted net operating income by 18.2% QoQ to USD 500 million.

[Blue Lotus E-Commerce Sector Update]: Tax Reform a Light at the End of the Tunnel for Ecommerce

By Ying Pan

  • Early 6/18 pulled June sales into May, leading to disappointing June NBS data. Combined, online retail grew 5.1% yoy in May/June, and 6.4% yoy in 2Q24. 
  • PDD remained the top shelf-ecommerce platform with GMV growing ~20%, followed by Taobao/Tmall (TTG) at ~6-7%, and JD and VIPS at ~2-3% yoy. 
  • We expect JD and BABA to report slight earnings beats and guide upbeat on continued profitability improvement in 2H24. 

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (20-Jul-2024): Micron samples MRDIMMs for AI, HPC.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Micron is sampling MRDIMMs for AI and HPC applications, exploring innovative solutions for data processing needs.
  • Hyundai Motors plans to add 300 new charging stations to support the expansion of their hydrogen bus fleet, promoting eco-friendly transportation options.
  • German electrification struggle worsens with supplier bankruptcy up 60%, hindering the widespread adoption of electric vehicles and renewable energy technologies.

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG US): Beat-And-Raise 2Q24; Strong Procedure Growth; Solid Da Vinci 5 Rollout

By Tina Banerjee

  • Intuitive Surgical (ISRG US) posted another strong quarterly result, with key performance indicators including total revenue, procedure growth, system placement, and EPS beating consensus.
  • 2Q24 procedure volume growth was 17% (estimate 15.5%) and accelerated from 16% in 1Q24. Intuitive narrowed full-year 2024 procedure growth forecast to 15.5–17.0%. The company raised gross margin guidance.
  • Despite phased rollout, 70 da Vinci 5 systems placement in 2Q24 seems impressive. It represents almost half of the total U.S. placement. In 2H24, placement is expected to increase modestly.

Zuora Inc (ZUO) – Thursday, Apr 18, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Zuora is considering a potential sale after receiving acquisition interest, with Qatalyst Partners hired to facilitate the process
  • Founder and CEO Tien Tzuo and other large shareholders may participate in the transaction
  • Potential deal price of $13-15 per share, offering 40-60% upside from current levels, with downside protection due to low valuation and improving cash flow outlook

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Cara Therapeutics Exploring A Potential Sale But Can It Really Get Acquired? – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Cara Therapeutics has been trending all over the internet after the company recently decided to explore a potential sale.
  • Recent, Cara Therapeutics’ management announced a focus shift toward its most promising project, oral difelikefalin for treating notalgia paresthetica (NP), a chronic neuropathic condition with no currently approved therapies.
  • The reallocation of resources toward this program enables Cara Therapeutics to extend its cash runway into 2026, potentially covering all crucial value inflection milestones for the NP program.

MoneyHero Group: A Promising Q1 2024 Result With Lots To Look Forward To!!

By Baptista Research

  • This is a follow-up research note on MoneyHero Group, a leading personal finance aggregation and comparison entity in Greater Southeast Asia.
  • In its most recent Q1 2024 result, the company continues to demonstrate exceptional growth and strategic agility.
  • MoneyHero Group has seen a significant uptick in revenues and improved margins and was also in the news for an important strategic sale of CompareHero in Malaysia that could prove to be another game changer.

Edenred Se (EDEN) – Friday, Apr 19, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Edenred SE is a global payment solutions company with a strong financial performance and dominant industry position
  • Company’s stock has declined -19.50% year-to-date due to a legal investigation in Italy
  • Despite challenges, Edenred has a strong balance sheet, cash flow generation, and growth potential, making it a long opportunity for investors.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Five9 Under Pressure From Anson Funds To Explore A Potential Sale! 4 Reasons Why It Could Be An Attractive Acquisition Target! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Five9, a noted leader in cloud contact center solutions, has been facing activist pressure in order to explore a potential sale of the company after a decent quarterly result.
  • Positively, Five9 reported a solid increase in subscription revenue, growing 20% year-over-year, which underscores its successful transition and dominance in the cloud-based contact center market.
  • This growth trajectory is supported by three key trends: the ongoing shift to cloud-based platforms, heightened focus on customer experience enhancement, and revolutionary impacts of AI on customer services.

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Daily Brief Credit: International Container – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • International Container – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics


International Container – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

We view International Container (ICTSI) as “Low Risk” on the LARA scale. This reflects the company’s: [1] leading position in Philippine container terminal operations; [2] geographically diversified operations, with port terminal assets across 19 countries; and [3] sound business capability to execute its expansion plans, as evidenced by its track record of healthy revenue growth and margin expansion. These are balanced against the risks associated with: [1] a potential increase in competitive pressures in the container shipping industry; [2] the Port of Manila’s small scale (in terms of annual throughput) compared to major ports worldwide; and [3] exposure to political and event risks arising from the company’s operations in frontier markets.

Our fundamental Credit Bias on ICTSI is “Stable”. The company’s leverage has improved over the years, supported by earnings growth and strong OCF generation. That said, FCF may be tempered by high capex and dividend payouts.

Controversies are “Material”. In 2017, ICTSI was accused by the International Transport Workers Federation (ITF) of violating various labour rights. This included the illegal sacking of outsourced workers at its Madagascar terminal, paying “poverty wages” at the company’s terminals in Indonesia and Madagascar, discrimination against unionised workers, as well as safety breaches at various terminals. The ITF also accused ICTSI of profiting off dictatorships, by working with authoritarian governments in Sudan, Syria and the Democratic Republic of Congo. In March 2023, the Organised Crime and Corruption Reporting Project accused the company of bribing two officials from the PNG Ports Corporation in relation to concession awards for its terminals in Papua New Guinea. That said, ICTSI does not appear to be materially impacted by the controversies. Overall, the ESG Impact on Credit is “Neutral”.


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Thai Bev to Get F&N Stake from Promoters At Book Value than Fair Market Value and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Thai Bev to Get F&N Stake from Promoters At Book Value than Fair Market Value
  • EQD | Where/When Will the Nikkei Index Reach a Bottom And Bounce?


Thai Bev to Get F&N Stake from Promoters At Book Value than Fair Market Value

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Thai Beverage(THBEVSP)‘s  proposed swap deal involves acquiring a 41.3% stake in F&N from promoters, seemingly at book value than fair market value, expected in case of an arms length transaction.
  • Fraser And Neave (FNN SP)  holds a 20.3% stake in Vietnam Dairy(VNM VN), Vietnam’s leading dairy player, which is now trading at nearly a 40% discount to the investment value.
  • Understanding TCC Assets’ ownership history of F&N may help clarify the deal’s valuation rationale.

EQD | Where/When Will the Nikkei Index Reach a Bottom And Bounce?

By Nico Rosti

  • The Nikkei 225 INDEX pulled back last week, and it may continue to fall for another 1-2 weeks.
  • Make sure you read the Market Reversal Matrix – Charts Analysis section below: we are introducing a possibile new Premium Service using our trend prediction models in algorithmic trading format.
  • The price support area to buy the Nikkei 225 would be between 39800 and 39300, this coming week (or the next).

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Daily Brief Macro: Launch of Korea Value Up Index in September and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Launch of Korea Value Up Index in September
  • Singapore: Signs of ‘Dutch Disease’ as Cyclical NODX Slumps Amid Property Surge
  • EM Watch: China FLOODS global copper markets amidst the plenum
  • Actinver – Macro Daily: Manufacturing Industry
  • Heard From Fortress Hill: Weekly Market Observations
  • Actinver MX Local Flavor: In line with U.S. indices, Mexican stocks have a negative day
  • HEW: Rate Cuts Not Boxed-In


Launch of Korea Value Up Index in September

By Douglas Kim

  • Korea Value-Up index is finally expected to be launched in September 2024 which is likely to include at least 100 companies in KOSPI and KOSDAQ.
  • There are expectations that Korea’s Value Up index could resemble JPX Prime 150 index which is a Japanese version of the value up index launched last year.
  • We provide 70 stocks in Korea that could be included in the Korea Value Up index. These 70 stocks could outperform the market in the next several months.

Singapore: Signs of ‘Dutch Disease’ as Cyclical NODX Slumps Amid Property Surge

By Prasenjit K. Basu

  • Productivity has declined 0.95%YoY on average over the latest 8 quarters, with Singapore’s economic growth depending entirely on rather rapid 4.85%YoY average growth in employment. 
  • Jun’24’s 6.7%YoY decline in real NODX indicates real GDP growth for Q2CY24 will be revised down to 2.5%YoY (from the 2.9% advance estimate); strong re-exports also suggest manufacturing’s declining competitiveness. 
  • Fiscal policy has returned to its contractionary norm, with this year’s surplus likely to be over 1% of GDP, reining-in RGDP growth to 2% for 2024 (and 1.3%YoY for H2CY24). 

EM Watch: China FLOODS global copper markets amidst the plenum

By Andreas Steno

  • Good Afternoon from Europe. It’s incredibly hard for me not to begin this weekly EM blog by emphasizing how bearish I am becoming on Copper, given the current developments out of China.
  • Chinese trends are diverging rapidly both internally and externally—the export sectors are performing well, while internal consumption growth is far from firing on all cylinders.
  • Ahead of the conclusion of the CCP Plenum, we noted that China Daily posted several upbeat stories on the GDP outlook following the release of a slightly disappointing Q2 report.

Actinver – Macro Daily: Manufacturing Industry

By Actinver

  • The manufacturing survey shows that the stagnation in manufacturing production in May stems from a combination of slowing external demand and stagnation in domestic demand.
  • At the sectoral level, there is great heterogeneity in the capacity used.
  • Last week, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) informed that manufacturing production stagnated in May (0.01% MoM) and accumulated a contraction of -1.8% so far this year (https://bit.ly/MXDAILYESP_2024_07_12).

Heard From Fortress Hill: Weekly Market Observations

By Alex Ng

  • US stock market is diverged in the past week, as DOW breaks new time height and NASDAQ retreats. S&P500 declines likewise.
  • Hong Kong Hang Seng is down but is still within our forecast range of 16000 level to 18000 level.
  • We suffer huge loss as our long call bets on Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft went sour. We are still keeping the positions in the hope that the trades will turn around.

Actinver MX Local Flavor: In line with U.S. indices, Mexican stocks have a negative day

By Actinver

  • Once again, Mexican stocks had a negative day in line with the pessimistic sentiment observed in the North American stock markets.
  • In particular, the IPC index fell 1.31% to trade slightly above 53 thousand units. At the end of the session, 27 of the 35 companies included in the main local index had falls in their share prices
  • The mining company Industrias Peñoles (PE&OLES * -4.65%) and the financial company Regional (R A -4.43%) had the largest share price declines at the end of the session. 

HEW: Rate Cuts Not Boxed-In

By Phil Rush

  • UK economic data was mostly as expected, but increased services inflation tipped the balance towards a hawkish stance. The ECB maintained flexibility but is likely to cut rates in September, and the BoE may need to reassess previous data to avoid a rate cut in August.
  • The Bank of Canada may respond to rising unemployment and low inflation with a likely consecutive rate cut, rather than adhering to the Fed’s hold position.
  • Key data to watch include the flash PMIs, US GDP for Q2, and core PCE inflation for June.

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