All Posts By

Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jan 07
0

Daily Brief Health Care: CanSino Biologics , Celltrion Pharm and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.5) – WuXi XDC, GLP-1s New Game Rule, Innovent, Cansino, A-Share Outlook
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: HS Holdings, Celltrion Pharm, NISA, PICC/PICC P&C

China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.5) – WuXi XDC, GLP-1s New Game Rule, Innovent, Cansino, A-Share Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • WuXi XDC remains our top pick in China healthcare. We’re optimistic about its share price performance. Cansino is stronger than imagined, and we recommend investors to be patient with it.
  • The future competitive landscape of GLP-1s would present very different situation from traditional drugs. Innovent’s Mazdutide could be a “dark horse” if the head-to-head trial against Semaglutide is successful.
  • For GLP-1s, it will be difficult to shake the first-mover position of the first two giants (Semaglutide and Tirzepatide) unless latecomers are able to show higher marginal benefits.

Last Week in Event SPACE: HS Holdings, Celltrion Pharm, NISA, PICC/PICC P&C

By David Blennerhassett

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jan 07
0

Daily Brief Financials: Shriram Finance , Ethereum and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, KRX New Deal, NIFTY50, NEXT50, CNXBANK
  • A Comprehensive Analysis of Zetachain (Executive Summary)
  • Year Ahead for DeFi 2024 (Executive Summary)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, KRX New Deal, NIFTY50, NEXT50, CNXBANK

By Brian Freitas

  • Posco DX (022100 KS) continues to drop following its section transfer from the KOSDAQ market to the KOSPI market. Short interest in the stock nearly halved in December.
  • There were big net inflows to China ETFs with creations in CSI 300 Index ETFs and redemptions in ETFs tracking the CSI 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index.
  • Creations continued in the iShares Emerging Markets ex China (EMXC US) ETF with units outstanding reaching a new high.

A Comprehensive Analysis of Zetachain (Executive Summary)

By Gerryl Pay

  • Zetachain is building a bridge into a  smart contract platform in a bid to create a platform for omnichain smart contracts.
  • Omnichain smart contracts enable applications to live on multiple chains but still be connected and share liquidity.
  • There is opportunity for Zetachain to seize across DeFi, NFTs, and Ordinals. Whether this will happen comes down to strategy execution and ecosystem building.

Year Ahead for DeFi 2024 (Executive Summary)

By Gerryl Pay

  • EigenLayer emerges as a protocol reshaping the staking paradigm. Going beyond Ethereum’s security, EigenLayer greatly extends the utility of staked ETH.
  • UniswapX and other intent based apps will break DEXs out of their growth plateau. 
  • Scalability advancements through rollapps and UX improvements from next-gen wallets will make DeFi more viable for end users. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jan 07
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Aoki Super, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Mixue Group and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Aoki, Kerry Express Thailand, JOYY, Tietto Mins, Pact Group
  • Investors Do Not Want to See A “P/B Improvement Plan” That Follows a Template
  • MIXUE Group IPO: The Investment Case

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Aoki, Kerry Express Thailand, JOYY, Tietto Mins, Pact Group

By David Blennerhassett

Investors Do Not Want to See A “P/B Improvement Plan” That Follows a Template

By Aki Matsumoto

  • TSE’s request to raise P/B was issued March end, and the number of companies that have disclosed their improvement measures is still low, at only about 30% of all companies.
  • Companies are likely to use good examples, but because the factors that increase share price vary from company to company, companies must offer their own solutions to their own situations.
  • Investors don’t want to see “P/B improvement plan” that follows the template, but want to see compelling measures that demonstrate cash flow growth, which is based on share price appreciation.

MIXUE Group IPO: The Investment Case

By Arun George

  • Mixue Group (MIX HK), a world-leading freshly made drinks company, filed for an HKEx IPO to raise US$0.5-1.0 billion. 
  • Mixue is China’s largest and the world’s second-largest freshly made drinks company, in terms of both the number of stores and cups sold in 9M23, according to CIC.
  • The investment case rests on a strong brand, leading market share, high revenue growth, robust cost control, stable profitability and cash generation. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jan 07
0

Most Read: Gresham House PLC, Tongcheng Travel Holdings , WuXi XDC Cayman , Posco DX, Zhongsheng Group, Hollysys Automation Technologies, Aoki Super, Shriram Finance and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Smartkarma Webinar | Top Trade Ideas in European Event-Driven
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSTECH, SIG/CWG, KQ150, REPT BATTERO
  • HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, SET50, AMFI, KOSDAQ150
  • HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Zhongsheng (881 HK) Should Go This Time
  • Hollysys (HOLI US): Dazheng Consortium “Trumps” Ascendent’s Bid
  • Aoki Super (9977) MBO at ¥3,800/Share (All-Time High, 15x Forecast FCF)
  • Aoki Super (9977 JP): MBO Tender Offer at JPY3,800
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Aoki, Kerry Express Thailand, JOYY, Tietto Mins, Pact Group
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, KRX New Deal, NIFTY50, NEXT50, CNXBANK

Smartkarma Webinar | Top Trade Ideas in European Event-Driven

By Smartkarma Research

  • In the next installment of our Webinar series, we go live with Smartkarma Insight Provider Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar. 
  • He will be sharing with us his top trade ideas and insights in the European event-driven space. 
  • From current opportunities, to what we can expect next in the region, join us as we get the full picture from Jesus. 

The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 23 August 2023, 17:00 SGT/HKT.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar is an Event-Driven Analyst looking across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. 

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSTECH, SIG/CWG, KQ150, REPT BATTERO

By Brian Freitas

  • It was a busy week with rebalance implementations at the close of trading on Thursday in Korea and then across the region on Friday.
  • The SET 50 Index changes should be announced this week and the Yuanta TW Div+ ETF will continue to implement the changes till Thursday.
  • There were inflows to China ETFs during the week while there were big outflows from Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) ETFs.

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March

By Brian Freitas

  • We see 30 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 28 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.
  • We expect 26 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 25 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
  • There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, SET50, AMFI, KOSDAQ150

By Brian Freitas

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Zhongsheng (881 HK) Should Go This Time

By Brian Freitas

  • Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) pops up as a potential deletion yet again and a much lower rank raises the probability of deletion to just short of a near certainty.
  • With BeiGene (6160 HK) failing the Velocity Test for Tradeable Indexes, Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)‘s deletion from the index should result in China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)‘s inclusion. 
  • Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.47% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$946m. Passives will need to trade over 2.5x ADV on both stocks.

Hollysys (HOLI US): Dazheng Consortium “Trumps” Ascendent’s Bid

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 13 December, Bloomberg reported that the Recco-led group consortium was weighing a revised Offer to be “significantly higher than the $26.50-a-share cash offer from Ascendent Capital”
  • On the 24 December, a buyer consortium led by Dazheng Group announced an all-cash proposal of US$29.00/share, a 9.4% premium to Ascendent’s Offer. “Credible” financing is in place.
  • “The Consortium stands ready to engage with the Board“.  The Board should engage. The one curious aspect of this latest Offer is the apparent absence of Recco’s involvement. 

Aoki Super (9977) MBO at ¥3,800/Share (All-Time High, 15x Forecast FCF)

By Travis Lundy

  • The family which owns and controls ubiquitous Nagoya supermarket chain Aoki Super (9977 JP) will acquire the 47% it does not own in an MBO. 
  • This appears to be an estate planning exercise, creating a context to hand off ownership from the 77yr old former CEO to his 44yr old son and current CEO. 
  • This comes in at a 44% premium, an all-time high price, and 15+x forecast FCF (even if the forecast looks a little light). This gets done easily.

Aoki Super (9977 JP): MBO Tender Offer at JPY3,800

By Arun George

  • Aoki Super (9977 JP) has recommended an MBO tender offer of JPY3,800 per share, a 43.9% premium to the undisturbed (5 January). 
  • The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 13.35% ownership ratio. 
  • Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 28.6% minority acceptance rate. This acceptance rate is achievable as the offer represents an all-time high. 

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Aoki, Kerry Express Thailand, JOYY, Tietto Mins, Pact Group

By David Blennerhassett

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, KRX New Deal, NIFTY50, NEXT50, CNXBANK

By Brian Freitas

  • Posco DX (022100 KS) continues to drop following its section transfer from the KOSDAQ market to the KOSPI market. Short interest in the stock nearly halved in December.
  • There were big net inflows to China ETFs with creations in CSI 300 Index ETFs and redemptions in ETFs tracking the CSI 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index.
  • Creations continued in the iShares Emerging Markets ex China (EMXC US) ETF with units outstanding reaching a new high.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Analytics and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free



Jan 07
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jan 5th): Faraday Tech and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jan 5th): Faraday Tech, Asustek Computer, Mediatek, Wistron, TSMC
  • TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jan 5th): Wan Hai Lines, Silergy, Quanta Computer, Asustek Computer

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jan 5th): Faraday Tech, Asustek Computer, Mediatek, Wistron, TSMC

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jan 5th which has an aggregated holding worth USD700.2bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD504mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign instutions.
  • We highlight foreign changes in Faraday Tech, Asustek Computer, Mediatek, Wistron, TSMC.

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jan 5th): Wan Hai Lines, Silergy, Quanta Computer, Asustek Computer

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jan 5th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD13.4bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Wan Hai Lines, Silergy, Quanta Computer, Asustek Computer, Asia Vital.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jan 07
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Celltrion Pharm and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week in Event SPACE: HS Holdings, Celltrion Pharm, NISA, PICC/PICC P&C

Last Week in Event SPACE: HS Holdings, Celltrion Pharm, NISA, PICC/PICC P&C

By David Blennerhassett

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jan 07
0

Daily Brief ESG: Investors Do Not Want to See A “P/B Improvement Plan” That Follows a Template and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Investors Do Not Want to See A “P/B Improvement Plan” That Follows a Template

Investors Do Not Want to See A “P/B Improvement Plan” That Follows a Template

By Aki Matsumoto

  • TSE’s request to raise P/B was issued March end, and the number of companies that have disclosed their improvement measures is still low, at only about 30% of all companies.
  • Companies are likely to use good examples, but because the factors that increase share price vary from company to company, companies must offer their own solutions to their own situations.
  • Investors don’t want to see “P/B improvement plan” that follows the template, but want to see compelling measures that demonstrate cash flow growth, which is based on share price appreciation.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jan 07
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | A Happy New Year and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | A Happy New Year
  • Boeing 737 MAX 9 and MAX-8200 Grounded: Implications And Opportunities

Japan Weekly | A Happy New Year

By Mark Chadwick

  • TOPIX rose by 1.15% over the past 5 trading days, which is an impressive performance given the negative news flow
  • Securities companies such as SBI (+7.7%), Daiwa (+7.1%) and Nomura (+6.3%) performed well on expectations that they would do well from the change in NISA regulations.
  • We highlight again the outperformance of value versus growth again over the past 5 days.

Boeing 737 MAX 9 and MAX-8200 Grounded: Implications And Opportunities

By Mohshin Aziz

  • Alaska Air Flight 1282 had an in-flight blowout of its mid-aft door and interior sidewall; the aircraft returned and landed safely, and there were no injuries or fatalities  
  • The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has ordered a temporary grounding of the affected aircraft model, and we think other countries will follow suit soon   
  • These stocks will likely be under shorts attack on Monday: Boeing (BA US), Alaska Air (ALK US), Ryanair (RYA ID) and United Airlines (UAL US)

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jan 07
0

Daily Brief United States: Ethereum, Dell Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • A Comprehensive Analysis of Zetachain (Executive Summary)
  • Year Ahead for DeFi 2024 (Executive Summary)
  • ‘Clippy’ Having the Last Laugh? Microsoft’s Design Change to Drive AI PC Adoption; Dell Trade Update

A Comprehensive Analysis of Zetachain (Executive Summary)

By Gerryl Pay

  • Zetachain is building a bridge into a  smart contract platform in a bid to create a platform for omnichain smart contracts.
  • Omnichain smart contracts enable applications to live on multiple chains but still be connected and share liquidity.
  • There is opportunity for Zetachain to seize across DeFi, NFTs, and Ordinals. Whether this will happen comes down to strategy execution and ecosystem building.

Year Ahead for DeFi 2024 (Executive Summary)

By Gerryl Pay

  • EigenLayer emerges as a protocol reshaping the staking paradigm. Going beyond Ethereum’s security, EigenLayer greatly extends the utility of staked ETH.
  • UniswapX and other intent based apps will break DEXs out of their growth plateau. 
  • Scalability advancements through rollapps and UX improvements from next-gen wallets will make DeFi more viable for end users. 

‘Clippy’ Having the Last Laugh? Microsoft’s Design Change to Drive AI PC Adoption; Dell Trade Update

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • On January 4th, Microsoft announced a design change for PCs whereby a new physical key will be added to PC keyboards; the Microsoft Copilot key.
  • Microsoft Copilot will become a must-have for companies in our view. Initial Copilot capabilities can dramatically improve worker productivity and this should help drive AI PC upgrades for the industry.
  • CES 2024 Jan 9th – 12th will showcase AI PC models sporting Intel’s Core Ultra processors and Microsoft’s new Copilot key. We also update our Dell vs. Taiwan PCs trade.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jan 07
0

Daily Brief India: Shriram Finance and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, KRX New Deal, NIFTY50, NEXT50, CNXBANK

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, KRX New Deal, NIFTY50, NEXT50, CNXBANK

By Brian Freitas

  • Posco DX (022100 KS) continues to drop following its section transfer from the KOSDAQ market to the KOSPI market. Short interest in the stock nearly halved in December.
  • There were big net inflows to China ETFs with creations in CSI 300 Index ETFs and redemptions in ETFs tracking the CSI 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index.
  • Creations continued in the iShares Emerging Markets ex China (EMXC US) ETF with units outstanding reaching a new high.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free