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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jan 10
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 5th): Sk Hynix and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 5th): Sk Hynix, Samsung Electron, Naver, Kia

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 5th): Sk Hynix, Samsung Electron, Naver, Kia

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX Stocks as of Jan 5th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD9.6bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Sk Hynix, Samsung Electron, Naver, Kia.

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Jan 10
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @9/1/2024 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @9/1/2024
  • Ohayo Japan | Stocks Retreat; Earnings & Corp Gov Drive Japan
  • Rough Road Ahead for US Commercial Real Estate but Industrial CRE Is Rooted to Outperform Others
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]: LKNCY/0000625 CH/1211 HK/300750 CH/QS/NIO/LI/2618 HK/ZTO/002352 CH/600233 CH
  • [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]: BABA/SE/PDD/3690 HK/NTES/700 HK/AMZN/MELI/CPNG
  • Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended January 5, 2024

Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @9/1/2024

By William Keating

  • Nanya 12/23 revenues NT$ 3,162 million, +10% MoM, +31.73% YoY. UMC 12/23 revenues NT$ 16,979,226. -9.6% MoM, -18.9%  YoY. Samsung Q423 Sales Flat,  Op Profit +16% QoQ
  • Quintaurius, a RISC-V collaboration between Bosch, Infineon, Nordic, NXP & Qualcomm, launched in Germany
  • Intel takes delivery of the first ASML High-NA EUV tool. It’s a great photo opportunity but that’s about as far as it goes

Ohayo Japan | Stocks Retreat; Earnings & Corp Gov Drive Japan

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: US stocks lower on slight rise in 10Y; less chance of early rate cut; Boeing down again
  • Today: NKY futures point to slight uptick (+0.3% v cash); Toyota China sales down for second year running
  • Corporate: Honda to power EVs with nuclear charging; Mit Corp to spend Y100b on green hydrogen

Rough Road Ahead for US Commercial Real Estate but Industrial CRE Is Rooted to Outperform Others

By Suhas Reddy

  • Growth in commercial real estate to be subdued in 2024 due to weak demand, especially for office spaces.
  • Concerns over CRE loan defaults grow stronger as the industry faces a liquidity crunch.
  • Delinquency rates of commercial real estate loans rise for five consecutive quarters till Q32023.

[Blue Lotus Daily]: LKNCY/0000625 CH/1211 HK/300750 CH/QS/NIO/LI/2618 HK/ZTO/002352 CH/600233 CH

By Eric Wen

  • Coffee Industry: Cotti Coffee promote the application of commercial robots, which we deemed as a gimmick (+)
  • 1211 HK/300750 CH/ QS:US solid start battery startup posted positive test result and stock rose 40% (/)
  • 2618 HK/ZTO/002352 CH/600233 CH/1519 HK/002120 CH/002468 CH: MOT announces new regulations on express parcel delivery (+/+/-/-/-/-/-)

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]: BABA/SE/PDD/3690 HK/NTES/700 HK/AMZN/MELI/CPNG

By Ying Pan

  • BABA/ SE/ PDD: Lazada mass-layoffs also in China offices (+/+/-)
  • NTES: Local media published an article addressing the issue of underage top-up in NetEase’s mobile game <Eggy Party> (/)
  • 700 HK: The New Year event operation of <CrossFire Mobile> is a success.(+)

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended January 5, 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index was down by 3.2% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 1.5%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 3.7%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 3.1%).
  • Energy Technology (13.7% of the index) was down by 6.5%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (50.6% of the index) was down 2.1%, ClimateTech Mining was up 10.3%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions was down 6.7%.
  • Top 10 Performers: AEVA, WAVE, PEV, PTRA, QS, PGTK, EFLVF, NXH, LIS, TMC

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Jan 10
0

Daily Brief Singapore: Wilmar International, Oel Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: Wilmar’s All-Time High Implied Stub As Yihai Kerry Touches New Lows
  • 10 in 10 with OEL (Holdings) – Entering the MedTech Sector

StubWorld: Wilmar’s All-Time High Implied Stub As Yihai Kerry Touches New Lows

By David Blennerhassett

10 in 10 with OEL (Holdings) – Entering the MedTech Sector

By Geoff Howie

10 in 10 with OEL (Holdings) – Entering the MedTech Sector

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Jan 10
0

Daily Brief ESG: Interesting that the Buy Parent Company + Sell Subsidiary Trade Does Not Work and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Interesting that the Buy Parent Company + Sell Subsidiary Trade Does Not Work

Interesting that the Buy Parent Company + Sell Subsidiary Trade Does Not Work

By Aki Matsumoto

  • It is an expected option for a parent company to make a profitable subsidiary wholly owned by the parent company, an environment that demands improved ROE.
  • It is natural that the market would receive a stock offering by a large shareholder with more information than others as the stock price is higher than its fair value.
  • It’s not unrelated to the fact that few shareholder proposals are approved and company proposals are rejected at AGMs, and that most domestic investment managers affiliates of major financial institutions.

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Jan 10
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD | KOSPI 200 Readying for LONG Reversal

EQD | KOSPI 200 Readying for LONG Reversal

By Nico Rosti

  • The KOSPI 200 INDEX is correcting after a long multi-week rally. Currently down for 2 weeks (to be confirmed this Friday at close), it’s becoming OVERSOLD.
  • There is a risk of a large slide during this week, so LONG trades should be taken with a careful, hedged approach, but the LONG reversal is pending…
  • The price area between 345 and 334 is where the index could stop its pullback and reverse.

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Jan 10
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Adi Sarana Armada, Komunal Financial Indonesia PT, Semaai and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) – Leading Player in People and Goods Mobility
  • Komunal lands US$5.5M in Series A+ round to digitalise rural banks in Indonesia | e27
  • Semaai nets US$4.7M to expand its agritech, fintech solutions to Central Java | e27

Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) – Leading Player in People and Goods Mobility

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) represents one of the most interesting plays on people and goods mobility and end-to-end logistics in Indonesia, being market leaders in auto leasing and auctions.
  • Revenues slowed in 9M2023 due to a slowdown in Anteraja because of slower e-commerce but other areas saw strong growth, especially its auction and used car business.
  • Adi Sarana Armada continues to build its renamed Cargoshare end-to-end logistics business with new customers and a move into cold chain logistics. Valuations are attractive relative to growth.

Komunal lands US$5.5M in Series A+ round to digitalise rural banks in Indonesia | e27

By e27

  • Komunal, a fintech company offering neo-rural bank services in Indonesia, has raised US$5.5 million in a Series A extension funding round led by Sumitomo Corporation Equity Asia.
  • Jafco Asia, Skystar Capital, Sovereign Capital, and Gobi Partners co-invested.
  • With the Series A+ funding, the startup aims to drive financial inclusion in Indonesia by digitalising rural banks.

Semaai nets US$4.7M to expand its agritech, fintech solutions to Central Java | e27

By e27

  •  Indonesian agritech startup Semaai has secured US$4.7 million (approximately IDR 73 billion) in a mix of equity and debt financing led by CyberAgent Capital (Japan).
  • New investors Sumitomo Corporation Equity Asia, Ruvento, MyAsiaVC, and Heracles Ventures, besides existing backers Peak XV’s Surge, Accion Venture Lab, and Beenext, participated.
  • This brings its total funding raised to date to US$7.6 million.

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Jan 10
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Major Base Supports Holding; DXY Testing the 2-Month Downtrend; 4600 on SPX Remains Key Support and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Major Base Supports Holding; DXY Testing the 2-Month Downtrend; 4600 on SPX Remains Key Support

Major Base Supports Holding; DXY Testing the 2-Month Downtrend; 4600 on SPX Remains Key Support

By Joe Jasper

  • Following last week’s pullback, a consistent theme we are seeing is that many broad market indexes and Sector ETFs are holding above (and bouncing at) major base supports.
  • As long as these base supports continue to hold, it tells us this is likely just a normal pullback within the overall bullish trend.
  • Important supports that we need to see hold in order to remain bullish include 4600 on the S&P 500 and 14,400 on the Nasdaq Composite.

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Jan 10
0

Daily Brief United States: Amer Sports , NASDAQ Composite Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Amer Sports IPO: The Bull Case
  • Major Base Supports Holding; DXY Testing the 2-Month Downtrend; 4600 on SPX Remains Key Support

Amer Sports IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • Amer Sports (AS US) is a global iconic sports and outdoor brand group. According to press reports, it has filed for a NYSE IPO to raise US$2 billion.
  • In 2019, a consortium of Anta Sports Products (2020 HK), FountainVest, Anamered Investments and Tencent (700 HK) acquired Amer at an EV of €5.5 billion.  
  • The bull case rests on the rapid growth and gross margin improvement under the consortium’s ownership, along with technical apparel and outdoor performance’s improving revenue and margin profile. 

Major Base Supports Holding; DXY Testing the 2-Month Downtrend; 4600 on SPX Remains Key Support

By Joe Jasper

  • Following last week’s pullback, a consistent theme we are seeing is that many broad market indexes and Sector ETFs are holding above (and bouncing at) major base supports.
  • As long as these base supports continue to hold, it tells us this is likely just a normal pullback within the overall bullish trend.
  • Important supports that we need to see hold in order to remain bullish include 4600 on the S&P 500 and 14,400 on the Nasdaq Composite.

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Jan 10
0

Daily Brief ECM: Amer Sports IPO: The Bull Case and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Amer Sports IPO: The Bull Case
  • Ayala Corp Placement – While Overhang Will Exist, the Stock’s Momentum Has Been Strong
  • Aequitas 2024 Asia IPO Pipeline – Hong Kong
  • Pre-IPO MIXUE Group – The Snow King Opens up a Lot More Room for Imagination than Expected
  • Guming Holdings (Goodme) Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Amer Sports IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • Amer Sports (AS US) is a global iconic sports and outdoor brand group. According to press reports, it has filed for a NYSE IPO to raise US$2 billion.
  • In 2019, a consortium of Anta Sports Products (2020 HK), FountainVest, Anamered Investments and Tencent (700 HK) acquired Amer at an EV of €5.5 billion.  
  • The bull case rests on the rapid growth and gross margin improvement under the consortium’s ownership, along with technical apparel and outdoor performance’s improving revenue and margin profile. 

Ayala Corp Placement – While Overhang Will Exist, the Stock’s Momentum Has Been Strong

By Clarence Chu

  • Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) is looking to raise US$100m via trimming a portion of its stake in Ayala Corporation (AC PM).
  • Despite being not explicitly well flagged, Mitsubishi had sold before back in Jan 2019, and in Mar 2018. Thus, we would argue that the deal here is somewhat expected.
  • While the deal would represent 43 days of the stock’s three month ADV, the recent selldowns by Mitsubishi had held up in the first week.

Aequitas 2024 Asia IPO Pipeline – Hong Kong

By Sumeet Singh

  • In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2024, starting with Hong Kong.
  • This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.
  • The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.

Pre-IPO MIXUE Group – The Snow King Opens up a Lot More Room for Imagination than Expected

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The business model of MIXUE is S2B2C. The expansive and highly efficient supply chain is the bedrock of MIXUE’s industry leading performance and scale, setting it apart from its peers.
  • MIXUE has more flexibility to diversify its business to explore new growth points and is also more resilient to risks/industry changes, which determines sustainability and growth ceiling of future development.
  • As competition for freshly-made tea drinks industry intensifies, capital has become “impatient”. As an industry leader, now is the best time for an IPO. MIXUE’s valuation could reach US$10 billion.

Guming Holdings (Goodme) Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Guming Holdings (GUM HK) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are Goldman Sachs, and UBS.
  • Guming Holdings (Guming) is a maker of freshly-made beverages in China.
  • As per CIC, its “Good me” brand is China’s largest mid-priced freshly-made tea store brand in terms of both GMV in 2023 and store count as of Dec 2023.

Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • FirstCry (0172540D IN) seeks to raise up to US$700m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Kotak, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, JM Financial and Avendus.
  • FirstCry is India’s largest multi-channel retailing platform for Mothers’, Babies’ and Kids’ products in terms of GMV, for the year ending Dec 2022 (9M23), according to RedSeer. 
  • In India, FirstCry sells Mothers’, Babies’ and Kids’ products through its online platform, company-owned modern stores, franchisee-owned modern stores and general trade retail distribution.

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Jan 10
0

Daily Brief Japan: Visional , T&K Toka Co Ltd, Suruga Bank Ltd, Ana Holdings, Money Forward , TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, ROHM Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jan 2024)
  • T&K TOKA (4636 JP): Expect ANOTHER Blandiloquent But Bletcherous Bump From Bain
  • T&K Toka (4636 JP): Decisions, Decisions as Tender Start Targeted for Mid-January
  • Suruga Bank – Only 33% of Buyback Done, Profit Guidance to Rise a Lot, Credit Saison Support Growth
  • All Nippon Airways: Difficult to Outperform Expectations – In Contrast to JAL
  • Money Forward (3394) | Looking Forward – Q4 Preview
  • Interesting that the Buy Parent Company + Sell Subsidiary Trade Does Not Work
  • Rohm (6963 JP): Quantum Process Optimization

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jan 2024)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
  • Furuya Metal (7826 JP) and Visional (4194 JP) are expected to be included in the TOPIX index at the end of January 2024
  • There are couple of other pre-event names that we have been tracking for the past few months.

T&K TOKA (4636 JP): Expect ANOTHER Blandiloquent But Bletcherous Bump From Bain

By Travis Lundy

  • In August when Bain announced that it would launch a Tender Offer for T&K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP) I suggested in my first piece it was the wrong price. 
  • I suggested it needed another ¥1,000 added onto the price. If the ¥1,300 price Dalton initially indicated seemed low to T&K TOKA, another ¥100 doesn’t seem right.
  • It took time. Now it looks like a tender offer launch is imminent. The stock has traded through terms for almost 5 months, but not by a lot.

T&K Toka (4636 JP): Decisions, Decisions as Tender Start Targeted for Mid-January

By Arun George

  • T&K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP) notes that Bain expects to satisfy the pre-condition and launch the JPY1,400 tender offer by mid-January. 
  • The shares have, on average, traded 1.9% above the offer due to Dalton’s stakebuilding. Bain has three options – unchanged terms, allowing Dalton to roll over its shares, or bumping. 
  • Bain is likely to bump as satisfying the minimum acceptance condition is challenging. A revised offer price of around JPY1,500 is possible.  

Suruga Bank – Only 33% of Buyback Done, Profit Guidance to Rise a Lot, Credit Saison Support Growth

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Only about 1/3 of of the recently announced share buy back is done, the remainder will come from now through end of March 2024.
  • Earnings are far higher than the bank’s forecast, and there should be a major revision in coming weeks.
  • Credit Saison collaboration and exiting BOJ negative rate policy, should provide a multitude of positives, for revenue growth.

All Nippon Airways: Difficult to Outperform Expectations – In Contrast to JAL

By Neil Glynn

  • Our FY24 to March 2024 EBIT forecast for ANA of ¥ 196bn is considerably higher than company guidance of ¥ 140bn, supported by our analysis of historical earnings seasonality.
  • However, we are only narrowly above consensus of ¥186bn, and narrowly below consensus of ¥204bn, ¥208bn in FY25, FY26.
  • In contrast, we see considerably greater upside to expectations at JAL, where our FY24 EBIT is 27% above consensus.

Money Forward (3394) | Looking Forward – Q4 Preview

By Mark Chadwick

  • Since releasing Q3 results, Money Forward’s stock price has fallen from 4,800 yen to the present 4,000 yen.
  • Results on Friday could herald a stronger outlook for the share price. The market is fixated on quarterly earnings and ad spend – these should improve sequentially.
  • Money Forward will release guidance for the coming fiscal year, which could see the company turn profitable at the EBITDA level.

Interesting that the Buy Parent Company + Sell Subsidiary Trade Does Not Work

By Aki Matsumoto

  • It is an expected option for a parent company to make a profitable subsidiary wholly owned by the parent company, an environment that demands improved ROE.
  • It is natural that the market would receive a stock offering by a large shareholder with more information than others as the stock price is higher than its fair value.
  • It’s not unrelated to the fact that few shareholder proposals are approved and company proposals are rejected at AGMs, and that most domestic investment managers affiliates of major financial institutions.

Rohm (6963 JP): Quantum Process Optimization

By Scott Foster

  • Use of quantum technology expected to improve electrical die sorting (EDS) performance by several percentage points.
  • Collaboration with Quanmatic aims at full-scale introduction in April, the first month of FY Mar-25. 
  • Buy for long-term growth led by power semiconductors with margin expansion from efficiency gains.

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