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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Fuji Soft (9749) – Much Better Governance Process But The Stock Has Run Too Far and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Fuji Soft (9749) – Much Better Governance Process But The Stock Has Run Too Far
  • Japan – Increasing Shorts on Some Interesting* Stocks; Positioning Appears Light
  • Merger Arb Mondays (15 Jan) – Shinko Electric, Benefit One, T&K Toka, Taisho, IJTT, IRC, Weiqiao
  • IRC Limited (1029 HK): Closing Date Extended as the Risk/Reward Turns Unattractive
  • KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Potential Changes in June
  • EQD | NIFTY Rising But SHORT Trade Possible From Friday…
  • Costa Group (CGC AU): Potential ASX200 Replacements
  • Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Jun 24: US$1.3bn One-Way; Some New Names in the Expected Changes List
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Jan 2024): Renewable Energy-Related Names Sold
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Jan 2024); High Div SOEs Still the Biggest Buys


Fuji Soft (9749) – Much Better Governance Process But The Stock Has Run Too Far

By Travis Lundy

  • After 3D Investment Partners bought a large slug of Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) in early 2022, the company started a review of governance and capital allocation. 
  • The company updated investors in August, and bought in 4 listed subs in November-December 2023. The August update suggested a Q1 2024 decision on use/ownership of real estate.
  • The Final Report is due in a month. In the meantime, the stock rallied Friday off a news article suggesting the Board was reviewing take-private proposals. Yes, but…

Japan – Increasing Shorts on Some Interesting* Stocks; Positioning Appears Light

By Brian Freitas

  • Some stocks have continued to underperform the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios next month.
  • Stocks that were expected to be deleted (but could now be safe) have outperformed the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) over the last couple of weeks.
  • There has been two-way flow in a lot of stocks with market participants increasing and covering short positions as the stock prices have moved around.


IRC Limited (1029 HK): Closing Date Extended as the Risk/Reward Turns Unattractive

By Arun George

  • Irc Ltd (1029 HK) notes that the offeror (Nikolai Levitskii) and acceptances reached 35.77% at the first closing date, materially short of the 50% minimum acceptance condition. 
  • The offeror has extended the closing date by 39 days (30 business days) to 20 February, the last day the offer can become or be declared unconditional. 
  • The rise in iron ore prices and a light offer pose challenges. The risk/reward profile is unfavourable as the upside (5.4% spread) outweighs the downside (20.5% to the undistributed price).

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Potential Changes in June

By Brian Freitas

  • Less than halfway through the review period, we see four changes for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the June rebalance.
  • The impact on the potential inclusion ranges from 0.14-6 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 3.6-12 days of ADV.
  • There are small shorts on the potential inclusions while short interest on the potential deletions varies from 5-10 days of ADV and 1.7-8.2% of free float.

EQD | NIFTY Rising But SHORT Trade Possible From Friday…

By Nico Rosti

  • The NIFTY Index closed up last week (CC=+1), it is not overbought yet but it could become so at the end of this week (Friday).
  • Resistance begins at 22280/22800, these are the price areas from where SHORT trades can be initiated (target: 1 weeks reversal, close trade at Close).
  • Covering LONG holdings with Covered CALLs is also possible, Strikes should be =>22800.

Costa Group (CGC AU): Potential ASX200 Replacements

By Brian Freitas


Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Jun 24: US$1.3bn One-Way; Some New Names in the Expected Changes List

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • SSE 50 and SSE 180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential index changes for SSE 50 and SSE 180 during the June 2024 index rebal event.
  • I continue to expect 5 changes for SSE 50 and 18 changes for SSE 180 but some of the names have changed since my last insight.

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Jan 2024): Renewable Energy-Related Names Sold

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 2.4bn of A-shares on decent average activity. 
  • Renewables and Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH) were the big net sells on the week.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Jan 2024); High Div SOEs Still the Biggest Buys

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND flows showing momentum tendencies this past week on a single-stock basis, still. 
  • SOUTHBOUND saw HK$6.8bn of net OUT-flows in the week to 12 Jan 2024. Total flows were HK$118bn.
  • SOUTHBOUND saw large net selling of ETFs (unwinding Week 1) and large net buying of high-div SOEs like CNOOC, China Mobile/Telecom/Unicom, and coal names.

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Daily Brief Macro: Global Liquidity And The US Fed Pivot and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Global Liquidity And The US Fed Pivot
  • US Political Backdrop Raises Risks of Fiscal and Monetary Policies Reflating the Economy
  • Don’t Fight the Fed (Or the Macro Trend)
  • Beware of the Riptide Market
  • [TW2] Japanese Equities Soar, Spot BTC ETF Goes Live, & Rising Red Sea Tensions (W/E 12th Jan 2024)
  • Steno Signals #82 – Inflation strikes back and no one is prepared for it
  • US Rates: Takeaways from December inflation and Red Sea trade disruptions


Global Liquidity And The US Fed Pivot

By Michael J. Howell

  • Global Liquidity Cycle bottomed in October 2022.  Cycle set to expand further to a peak in late-2025
  • Federal Reserve liquidity already rising and driven over medium-term by need to monetize mandatory fiscal spending
  • Global Liquidity set to rise by US$12-15 trillion in 2024

US Political Backdrop Raises Risks of Fiscal and Monetary Policies Reflating the Economy

By Said Desaque

  • The higher civilian workforce participation rate imparted disinflation in 2023. These influences may now be retreating. Skilled labour shortages in manufacturing have produced higher wages that could undermine inflation trends.
  • Bipartisan agreement on government spending enhances depletion prospects for the Treasury’s General Account, boosting financial accommodation.  Fed could exit quantitative tightening due to rapid drawdown on its reverse repo programme.
  • Deploying greater pressure, the Biden Administration will seek to avoid a repeat of 1992 when the Fed was accused of easing too slowly to the detriment of the incumbent President.   

Don’t Fight the Fed (Or the Macro Trend)

By Cam Hui

  • The global disinflation trend is continuing in an uneven manner and both the macro trend and Fed speakers are pointing toward a dovish Fed pivot.
  • This argues for a bull steepening of the yield curve and a bullish backdrop for stock prices.
  • However, investors should be aware that the lurking risk is the re-emergence of the transitory disinflation narrative, which could derail the bullish scenario.

Beware of the Riptide Market

By Cam Hui

  • The short-term outlook can be characterized as a riptide market. Everything looks good, but risks are lurking beneath the surface,
  • Negative technical warnings and several sources of volatility are weighing on the short-term outlook.
  • Expect the rest of January to be choppy to down, which argues for a buy the dip and sell the rip posture in trading.

[TW2] Japanese Equities Soar, Spot BTC ETF Goes Live, & Rising Red Sea Tensions (W/E 12th Jan 2024)

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

  • Financial majors – Goldman, Morgan, HDFC, and Interactive Brokers announce results. Charles Schwab reports on 17/Jan and Schlumberger reports on 19/Jan.
  • On economic data, data from USA, China, and Japan will provide strong insight into the health of consumers and businesses there.
  • An iPhone that got sucked out of Alaskan Air when the door of a Boeing jet came unstuck fell 5,000m but landed without a single crack on the screen.

Steno Signals #82 – Inflation strikes back and no one is prepared for it

By Andreas Steno

  • Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial on the Coronation day of King Frederik in Copenhagen.
  • I guess it is somewhat telling for my lack of enthusiasm around the event that I am sitting here spitting out research instead of watching the Crowning.
  • The US CPI report printed a tad hotter than expected last week, but smack dab at our expectations of a 3.9% YoY level in core terms.

US Rates: Takeaways from December inflation and Red Sea trade disruptions

By At Any Rate

  • Core PCE rose 0.3% on the month and 3.9% over a year ago, showing signs of stickiness since last year.
  • The yield curve has steepened and two-year yields have fallen dramatically, indicating market response to the softer implications for core PCE.
  • Differences in calculation methods and components of CPI and PCE contribute to the wedge between the two measures, with shelter inflation and medical insurance costs being key factors. Non-market prices, particularly in services, are running below market prices for core PCE.

This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.


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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Spot Container Rates Surge | New Fees Also Boosting Carrier Revenue | Increases Could Lift ’24 Rates and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Spot Container Rates Surge | New Fees Also Boosting Carrier Revenue | Increases Could Lift ’24 Rates
  • China Consumption Weekly (15 Jan 2024): Tencent, Douyin, Alibaba, JD.com, Dada, Meituan
  • Saizeriya (7581 JP):  Asia Business Slightly Beat While Japan Operating Profit Missed
  • Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – January 2024
  • Wuxi Biologics (2269.HK) – Dramatic Changes in Management Forecasts Fail to Bring Back Confidence
  • Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): FY24 Guidance Seems to Be Aggressive; Downtrend Will Likely To Continue
  • Steve Madden (SHOO) – Sunday, Oct 15, 2023
  • Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VNDA) – Sunday, Oct 15, 2023
  • Accrelist chairman Terence Tea increases stake in firm


Spot Container Rates Surge | New Fees Also Boosting Carrier Revenue | Increases Could Lift ’24 Rates

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Spot container rates have surged, owing to conflict near Red Sea / Suez Canal
  • On top of higher spot rates, imposition of new fees also boosting carrier revenue
  • Evergreen’s average monthly US$ revenue increased from Q123 to Q423

China Consumption Weekly (15 Jan 2024): Tencent, Douyin, Alibaba, JD.com, Dada, Meituan

By Ming Lu

  • Tencent will allow Douyin to broadcast the game Honor of Kings after a four-year ban.
  • Dada’s stock plunged after the company released its suspicious auditing result.
  • Alibaba’s mobile office app, Dingding, has accumulated 120,000 paying users.

Saizeriya (7581 JP):  Asia Business Slightly Beat While Japan Operating Profit Missed

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Saizeriya (7581 JP) reported FY1Q24 results (September to November) last week.  Sales grew 22% yoy, and was 2% higher than company guidance.  Operating profit grew 104%.
  • Operating profit for the Asia business, the key growth driver of the company, was Y3.3bn, up 56% yoy and above management guidance. 
  • Overall thesis remains intact, as the Asia business performed slightly better than expectations. 

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – January 2024

By Sameer Taneja


Wuxi Biologics (2269.HK) – Dramatic Changes in Management Forecasts Fail to Bring Back Confidence

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • WuXi Bio’s optimism about new orders failed to generated expected surge in its stock price. Many investors raised great doubts about the credibility and professionalism in communication of WuXi Bio.
  • It’s easy/cost-effective for WuXi Bio to “adjust” order number. However, it’s more difficult to inflate revenue/cash flow. We have to wait for future financial results to know the real situation.
  • XBI is essentially “a bond”.Recent surge of XBI is driven by the expectations of Fed’s rate cut + US soft landing, rather than virtual improvement of external environment.Much remains unclear.  

Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): FY24 Guidance Seems to Be Aggressive; Downtrend Will Likely To Continue

By Tina Banerjee

  • Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP) still expects FY24 revenue of ¥362 billion (down 35% YoY). This implies H2FY24 revenue of ¥209.4 billion, up 37% compared with H1FY24.
  • To achieve this target, North America needs to perform strongly. H1FY24 revenue from North America has shown a progress rate of just 35% against full-year FY24 revenue guidance.
  • With the absence of any strong catalyst, we expect recent rally in Sumitomo shares fueled by encouraging clinical trial result and new drug approval in China, will be short-lived.

Steve Madden (SHOO) – Sunday, Oct 15, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • Steve Madden is considered a good investment opportunity due to its strong management team and attractive price.
  • The shoe industry has faced challenges, but Steve Madden is seen to have minimal downside risk due to its solid balance sheet and reasonable valuation.
  • Steve Madden’s focus on branded shoes also makes it an attractive acquisition target, and if it achieves estimated 2025 earnings of $3 per share, its stock price could potentially increase by 40%.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VNDA) – Sunday, Oct 15, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • Vanda Pharmaceuticals has established revenue-generating drugs and a pipeline of potential candidates in development.
  • The company has a strong balance sheet with ample cash reserves, offering potential for investments or acquisitions.
  • Despite these positive traits, the market values Vanda as if its core business is worthless, presenting a potential investment opportunity with significant upside potential.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Accrelist chairman Terence Tea increases stake in firm

By Geoff Howie

  • Accrelist chairman Terence Tea increases stake in firm CapitaLand Investment led the consideration tally, buying back 1,072,100 shares at an average price of S$3.00 per share on Jan 10.
  • Between Jan 4 and 9, Accrelist executive chairman and managing director Terence Tea acquired 2,365,900 shares at S$0.039 per share.

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Daily Brief Thailand: Bank Of America and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Aequitas ASEAN IPOs + Placements Broker Performance 2023


Aequitas ASEAN IPOs + Placements Broker Performance 2023

By Ethan Aw

  • In this note, we will take a look at broker performance for ASEAN IPOs and placements in 2023. 
  • The following dataset includes all ASEAN IPOs and placements above US$100m, which amounted to a total of 18 deals.
  • The deals you see in this note are based on our historical IPO and placement tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information.

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Daily Brief Australia: Strike Energy and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Costa Group (CGC AU): Potential ASX200 Replacements


Costa Group (CGC AU): Potential ASX200 Replacements

By Brian Freitas


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Daily Brief South Korea: Posco DX and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Potential Changes in June


KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Potential Changes in June

By Brian Freitas

  • Less than halfway through the review period, we see four changes for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the June rebalance.
  • The impact on the potential inclusion ranges from 0.14-6 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 3.6-12 days of ADV.
  • There are small shorts on the potential inclusions while short interest on the potential deletions varies from 5-10 days of ADV and 1.7-8.2% of free float.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Beng Kuang Marine and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Accrelist chairman Terence Tea increases stake in firm


Accrelist chairman Terence Tea increases stake in firm

By Geoff Howie

  • Accrelist chairman Terence Tea increases stake in firm CapitaLand Investment led the consideration tally, buying back 1,072,100 shares at an average price of S$3.00 per share on Jan 10.
  • Between Jan 4 and 9, Accrelist executive chairman and managing director Terence Tea acquired 2,365,900 shares at S$0.039 per share.

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Daily Brief United States: Amer Sports , Steven Madden, Vanda Pharmaceuticals and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Amer Sports IPO: The Fundamentals, and How We See It?
  • Steve Madden (SHOO) – Sunday, Oct 15, 2023
  • Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VNDA) – Sunday, Oct 15, 2023


Amer Sports IPO: The Fundamentals, and How We See It?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • We consider the fundamentals of Amer Sports (AS US) attractive and are positive towards its business outlook. Profitability has surged with solid growth rates in revenue and margin.
  • Amer’s investment case lies in its multi-brand portfolio, niche, functional, and professional products, margin expansion/profitability improvement, and China growth prospects.
  • Since the proceeds will be used to repay shareholder loans, this will lower its interest burden and strengthen its financial position. Hence, the IPO should further boost its profitability.

Steve Madden (SHOO) – Sunday, Oct 15, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • Steve Madden is considered a good investment opportunity due to its strong management team and attractive price.
  • The shoe industry has faced challenges, but Steve Madden is seen to have minimal downside risk due to its solid balance sheet and reasonable valuation.
  • Steve Madden’s focus on branded shoes also makes it an attractive acquisition target, and if it achieves estimated 2025 earnings of $3 per share, its stock price could potentially increase by 40%.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VNDA) – Sunday, Oct 15, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • Vanda Pharmaceuticals has established revenue-generating drugs and a pipeline of potential candidates in development.
  • The company has a strong balance sheet with ample cash reserves, offering potential for investments or acquisitions.
  • Despite these positive traits, the market values Vanda as if its core business is worthless, presenting a potential investment opportunity with significant upside potential.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief India: NIFTY Index, Vedanta Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD | NIFTY Rising But SHORT Trade Possible From Friday…
  • Morning Views Asia: Innergex Renewable Energy, Vedanta Resources


EQD | NIFTY Rising But SHORT Trade Possible From Friday…

By Nico Rosti

  • The NIFTY Index closed up last week (CC=+1), it is not overbought yet but it could become so at the end of this week (Friday).
  • Resistance begins at 22280/22800, these are the price areas from where SHORT trades can be initiated (target: 1 weeks reversal, close trade at Close).
  • Covering LONG holdings with Covered CALLs is also possible, Strikes should be =>22800.

Morning Views Asia: Innergex Renewable Energy, Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Japan: Fuji Soft Inc, Open House, Shinko Electric Industries, Saizeriya, Sumitomo Pharma and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Fuji Soft (9749) – Much Better Governance Process But The Stock Has Run Too Far
  • Japan – Increasing Shorts on Some Interesting* Stocks; Positioning Appears Light
  • Merger Arb Mondays (15 Jan) – Shinko Electric, Benefit One, T&K Toka, Taisho, IJTT, IRC, Weiqiao
  • Saizeriya (7581 JP):  Asia Business Slightly Beat While Japan Operating Profit Missed
  • Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): FY24 Guidance Seems to Be Aggressive; Downtrend Will Likely To Continue


Fuji Soft (9749) – Much Better Governance Process But The Stock Has Run Too Far

By Travis Lundy

  • After 3D Investment Partners bought a large slug of Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) in early 2022, the company started a review of governance and capital allocation. 
  • The company updated investors in August, and bought in 4 listed subs in November-December 2023. The August update suggested a Q1 2024 decision on use/ownership of real estate.
  • The Final Report is due in a month. In the meantime, the stock rallied Friday off a news article suggesting the Board was reviewing take-private proposals. Yes, but…

Japan – Increasing Shorts on Some Interesting* Stocks; Positioning Appears Light

By Brian Freitas

  • Some stocks have continued to underperform the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios next month.
  • Stocks that were expected to be deleted (but could now be safe) have outperformed the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) over the last couple of weeks.
  • There has been two-way flow in a lot of stocks with market participants increasing and covering short positions as the stock prices have moved around.


Saizeriya (7581 JP):  Asia Business Slightly Beat While Japan Operating Profit Missed

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Saizeriya (7581 JP) reported FY1Q24 results (September to November) last week.  Sales grew 22% yoy, and was 2% higher than company guidance.  Operating profit grew 104%.
  • Operating profit for the Asia business, the key growth driver of the company, was Y3.3bn, up 56% yoy and above management guidance. 
  • Overall thesis remains intact, as the Asia business performed slightly better than expectations. 

Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): FY24 Guidance Seems to Be Aggressive; Downtrend Will Likely To Continue

By Tina Banerjee

  • Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP) still expects FY24 revenue of ¥362 billion (down 35% YoY). This implies H2FY24 revenue of ¥209.4 billion, up 37% compared with H1FY24.
  • To achieve this target, North America needs to perform strongly. H1FY24 revenue from North America has shown a progress rate of just 35% against full-year FY24 revenue guidance.
  • With the absence of any strong catalyst, we expect recent rally in Sumitomo shares fueled by encouraging clinical trial result and new drug approval in China, will be short-lived.

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