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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Irc Ltd, Strike Energy, Vedanta Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • IRC Limited (1029 HK): Closing Date Extended as the Risk/Reward Turns Unattractive
  • Costa Group (CGC AU): Potential ASX200 Replacements
  • Morning Views Asia: Innergex Renewable Energy, Vedanta Resources


IRC Limited (1029 HK): Closing Date Extended as the Risk/Reward Turns Unattractive

By Arun George

  • Irc Ltd (1029 HK) notes that the offeror (Nikolai Levitskii) and acceptances reached 35.77% at the first closing date, materially short of the 50% minimum acceptance condition. 
  • The offeror has extended the closing date by 39 days (30 business days) to 20 February, the last day the offer can become or be declared unconditional. 
  • The rise in iron ore prices and a light offer pose challenges. The risk/reward profile is unfavourable as the upside (5.4% spread) outweighs the downside (20.5% to the undistributed price).

Costa Group (CGC AU): Potential ASX200 Replacements

By Brian Freitas


Morning Views Asia: Innergex Renewable Energy, Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Fuji Soft Inc, Shinko Electric Industries, Posco DX, Foxconn Industrial Internet, Alibaba (ADR), China Mobile and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Fuji Soft (9749) – Much Better Governance Process But The Stock Has Run Too Far
  • Merger Arb Mondays (15 Jan) – Shinko Electric, Benefit One, T&K Toka, Taisho, IJTT, IRC, Weiqiao
  • KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Potential Changes in June
  • Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Jun 24: US$1.3bn One-Way; Some New Names in the Expected Changes List
  • China Consumption Weekly (15 Jan 2024): Tencent, Douyin, Alibaba, JD.com, Dada, Meituan
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Jan 2024); High Div SOEs Still the Biggest Buys


Fuji Soft (9749) – Much Better Governance Process But The Stock Has Run Too Far

By Travis Lundy

  • After 3D Investment Partners bought a large slug of Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) in early 2022, the company started a review of governance and capital allocation. 
  • The company updated investors in August, and bought in 4 listed subs in November-December 2023. The August update suggested a Q1 2024 decision on use/ownership of real estate.
  • The Final Report is due in a month. In the meantime, the stock rallied Friday off a news article suggesting the Board was reviewing take-private proposals. Yes, but…


KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Potential Changes in June

By Brian Freitas

  • Less than halfway through the review period, we see four changes for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the June rebalance.
  • The impact on the potential inclusion ranges from 0.14-6 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 3.6-12 days of ADV.
  • There are small shorts on the potential inclusions while short interest on the potential deletions varies from 5-10 days of ADV and 1.7-8.2% of free float.

Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Jun 24: US$1.3bn One-Way; Some New Names in the Expected Changes List

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • SSE 50 and SSE 180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential index changes for SSE 50 and SSE 180 during the June 2024 index rebal event.
  • I continue to expect 5 changes for SSE 50 and 18 changes for SSE 180 but some of the names have changed since my last insight.

China Consumption Weekly (15 Jan 2024): Tencent, Douyin, Alibaba, JD.com, Dada, Meituan

By Ming Lu

  • Tencent will allow Douyin to broadcast the game Honor of Kings after a four-year ban.
  • Dada’s stock plunged after the company released its suspicious auditing result.
  • Alibaba’s mobile office app, Dingding, has accumulated 120,000 paying users.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Jan 2024); High Div SOEs Still the Biggest Buys

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND flows showing momentum tendencies this past week on a single-stock basis, still. 
  • SOUTHBOUND saw HK$6.8bn of net OUT-flows in the week to 12 Jan 2024. Total flows were HK$118bn.
  • SOUTHBOUND saw large net selling of ETFs (unwinding Week 1) and large net buying of high-div SOEs like CNOOC, China Mobile/Telecom/Unicom, and coal names.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Evergreen Marine Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Spot Container Rates Surge | New Fees Also Boosting Carrier Revenue | Increases Could Lift ’24 Rates


Spot Container Rates Surge | New Fees Also Boosting Carrier Revenue | Increases Could Lift ’24 Rates

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Spot container rates have surged, owing to conflict near Red Sea / Suez Canal
  • On top of higher spot rates, imposition of new fees also boosting carrier revenue
  • Evergreen’s average monthly US$ revenue increased from Q123 to Q423

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Daily Brief Health Care: Wuxi Biologics, Sumitomo Pharma, Vanda Pharmaceuticals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Wuxi Biologics (2269.HK) – Dramatic Changes in Management Forecasts Fail to Bring Back Confidence
  • Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): FY24 Guidance Seems to Be Aggressive; Downtrend Will Likely To Continue
  • Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VNDA) – Sunday, Oct 15, 2023


Wuxi Biologics (2269.HK) – Dramatic Changes in Management Forecasts Fail to Bring Back Confidence

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • WuXi Bio’s optimism about new orders failed to generated expected surge in its stock price. Many investors raised great doubts about the credibility and professionalism in communication of WuXi Bio.
  • It’s easy/cost-effective for WuXi Bio to “adjust” order number. However, it’s more difficult to inflate revenue/cash flow. We have to wait for future financial results to know the real situation.
  • XBI is essentially “a bond”.Recent surge of XBI is driven by the expectations of Fed’s rate cut + US soft landing, rather than virtual improvement of external environment.Much remains unclear.  

Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): FY24 Guidance Seems to Be Aggressive; Downtrend Will Likely To Continue

By Tina Banerjee

  • Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP) still expects FY24 revenue of ¥362 billion (down 35% YoY). This implies H2FY24 revenue of ¥209.4 billion, up 37% compared with H1FY24.
  • To achieve this target, North America needs to perform strongly. H1FY24 revenue from North America has shown a progress rate of just 35% against full-year FY24 revenue guidance.
  • With the absence of any strong catalyst, we expect recent rally in Sumitomo shares fueled by encouraging clinical trial result and new drug approval in China, will be short-lived.

Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VNDA) – Sunday, Oct 15, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • Vanda Pharmaceuticals has established revenue-generating drugs and a pipeline of potential candidates in development.
  • The company has a strong balance sheet with ample cash reserves, offering potential for investments or acquisitions.
  • Despite these positive traits, the market values Vanda as if its core business is worthless, presenting a potential investment opportunity with significant upside potential.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Financials: Open House, NIFTY Index, Bank Of America and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan – Increasing Shorts on Some Interesting* Stocks; Positioning Appears Light
  • EQD | NIFTY Rising But SHORT Trade Possible From Friday…
  • Aequitas ASEAN IPOs + Placements Broker Performance 2023


Japan – Increasing Shorts on Some Interesting* Stocks; Positioning Appears Light

By Brian Freitas

  • Some stocks have continued to underperform the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios next month.
  • Stocks that were expected to be deleted (but could now be safe) have outperformed the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) over the last couple of weeks.
  • There has been two-way flow in a lot of stocks with market participants increasing and covering short positions as the stock prices have moved around.

EQD | NIFTY Rising But SHORT Trade Possible From Friday…

By Nico Rosti

  • The NIFTY Index closed up last week (CC=+1), it is not overbought yet but it could become so at the end of this week (Friday).
  • Resistance begins at 22280/22800, these are the price areas from where SHORT trades can be initiated (target: 1 weeks reversal, close trade at Close).
  • Covering LONG holdings with Covered CALLs is also possible, Strikes should be =>22800.

Aequitas ASEAN IPOs + Placements Broker Performance 2023

By Ethan Aw

  • In this note, we will take a look at broker performance for ASEAN IPOs and placements in 2023. 
  • The following dataset includes all ASEAN IPOs and placements above US$100m, which amounted to a total of 18 deals.
  • The deals you see in this note are based on our historical IPO and placement tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Saizeriya, Kweichow Moutai, Water Oasis, Amer Sports , Steven Madden and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Saizeriya (7581 JP):  Asia Business Slightly Beat While Japan Operating Profit Missed
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Jan 2024): Renewable Energy-Related Names Sold
  • Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – January 2024
  • Amer Sports IPO: The Fundamentals, and How We See It?
  • Steve Madden (SHOO) – Sunday, Oct 15, 2023


Saizeriya (7581 JP):  Asia Business Slightly Beat While Japan Operating Profit Missed

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Saizeriya (7581 JP) reported FY1Q24 results (September to November) last week.  Sales grew 22% yoy, and was 2% higher than company guidance.  Operating profit grew 104%.
  • Operating profit for the Asia business, the key growth driver of the company, was Y3.3bn, up 56% yoy and above management guidance. 
  • Overall thesis remains intact, as the Asia business performed slightly better than expectations. 

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Jan 2024): Renewable Energy-Related Names Sold

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 2.4bn of A-shares on decent average activity. 
  • Renewables and Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH) were the big net sells on the week.

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – January 2024

By Sameer Taneja


Amer Sports IPO: The Fundamentals, and How We See It?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • We consider the fundamentals of Amer Sports (AS US) attractive and are positive towards its business outlook. Profitability has surged with solid growth rates in revenue and margin.
  • Amer’s investment case lies in its multi-brand portfolio, niche, functional, and professional products, margin expansion/profitability improvement, and China growth prospects.
  • Since the proceeds will be used to repay shareholder loans, this will lower its interest burden and strengthen its financial position. Hence, the IPO should further boost its profitability.

Steve Madden (SHOO) – Sunday, Oct 15, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • Steve Madden is considered a good investment opportunity due to its strong management team and attractive price.
  • The shoe industry has faced challenges, but Steve Madden is seen to have minimal downside risk due to its solid balance sheet and reasonable valuation.
  • Steve Madden’s focus on branded shoes also makes it an attractive acquisition target, and if it achieves estimated 2025 earnings of $3 per share, its stock price could potentially increase by 40%.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 12th): CNOOC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 12th): CNOOC, Tencent
  • A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 12th): China Tourism, Ccb, Fuyao Glass, China Longyuan, Flat Glass Gro, SMIC
  • HK Short Interest Weekly: Baba, Petrochina, China Mobile
  • Northbound Flows (Jan 12th): Moutai, Longi Green


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 12th): CNOOC, Tencent

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 12th.
  • The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
  • We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for CNOOC, Tencent.

A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 12th): China Tourism, Ccb, Fuyao Glass, China Longyuan, Flat Glass Gro, SMIC

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 122.2% as of Jan 12th.
  • The average A-H premium changed by -0.9ppt week-on-week, led by communication services, information technology, financials and offset by consumer staples, real estate, utilities.
  • We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Tourism, Ccb, Fuyao Glass In, China Longyuan, Flat Glass Gro, Smic.

HK Short Interest Weekly: Baba, Petrochina, China Mobile

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 5th.
  • Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
  • We highlight short changes in Baba, Petrochina, and China Mobile.

Northbound Flows (Jan 12th): Moutai, Longi Green

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 12th.
  • We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$374.5 million, led by financials, consumer staples, and offset by consumer discretionary, information technology, industrials.
  • We highlight northbound connect flows for Moutai and Longi Green.

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Daily Brief ECM: Amer Sports IPO: The Fundamentals and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Amer Sports IPO: The Fundamentals, and How We See It?
  • Aequitas ASEAN IPOs + Placements Broker Performance 2023


Amer Sports IPO: The Fundamentals, and How We See It?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • We consider the fundamentals of Amer Sports (AS US) attractive and are positive towards its business outlook. Profitability has surged with solid growth rates in revenue and margin.
  • Amer’s investment case lies in its multi-brand portfolio, niche, functional, and professional products, margin expansion/profitability improvement, and China growth prospects.
  • Since the proceeds will be used to repay shareholder loans, this will lower its interest burden and strengthen its financial position. Hence, the IPO should further boost its profitability.

Aequitas ASEAN IPOs + Placements Broker Performance 2023

By Ethan Aw

  • In this note, we will take a look at broker performance for ASEAN IPOs and placements in 2023. 
  • The following dataset includes all ASEAN IPOs and placements above US$100m, which amounted to a total of 18 deals.
  • The deals you see in this note are based on our historical IPO and placement tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Nikkei Outpaces Global Stocks; Busy Week Ahead and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Nikkei Outpaces Global Stocks; Busy Week Ahead
  • Crisis in the Red Sea, if This Persists, We May Need to Rethink About Victory over Inflation


Ohayo Japan | Nikkei Outpaces Global Stocks; Busy Week Ahead

By Mark Chadwick

  • In the upcoming week, market focus includes U.S. retail sales, bank earnings, Davos discussions on global economic challenges, China’s GDP figures, and volatile oil prices amid geopolitical tensions.
  • Fujitsu faces scrutiny in Britain regarding potential compensation for post office operators falsely accused of embezzlement due to glitches in its accounting system from the 1990s into the 2010s.
  • Yaskawa’s 9M financials show a 6% YoY net profit decline at 34bn yen. Motors and robotics, witnessed profit growth despite Chinese economic uncertainties. Orders may be bottoming

Crisis in the Red Sea, if This Persists, We May Need to Rethink About Victory over Inflation

By Mohshin Aziz

  • The U.S. and the UK have struck multiple military assets across Yemen in a bid to cripple the Houthis’ ability to target commercial ships and to send “a clear message”   
  • The Houthis are a battle-hardened regime, they are still around after an eight-year war with Saudis and the U.A.E, and chances are attacks over the Red Sea will increase   
  • Shipping rates have soared, and air freight will likely follow soon. Bad news for the flight against inflation  

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Innergex Renewable Energy and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Innergex Renewable Energy, Vedanta Resources


Morning Views Asia: Innergex Renewable Energy, Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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