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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: AEM: When Inventory Fell off the Truck On the Way to Penang… and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • AEM: When Inventory Fell off the Truck On the Way to Penang…
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results; AI PC Market Site Visit; Alchip GDR Offering
  • HSBC – Gap of USD15bn on Carrying Value Vs Fair Value of BoCom, as China Economy Weakens More
  • [Luckin Coffee(LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$43) TP Change]: Weak Earnings in 4Q23 but Better Outlook in 2024
  • Perfect Medical: Updates, Stock at 10% Dividend Yield Post Correction
  • Fabrinet: Initiation of Coverage – Revolution in Optics: Can They Dominate The AI Interconnect Market? – Major Drivers
  • CyberArk Software Ltd.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy Major Drivers
  • APAC Insurers Series (#4): How We See the 3 Insurance Stocks in 2024
  • LuxUrban Hotels (LUXH) : The Bed Sheets Should Be Made Out Of Red Flags
  • Delivery Hero Ag (DELHY) – Wednesday, Oct 18, 2023


AEM: When Inventory Fell off the Truck On the Way to Penang…

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • AEM had a bizarre announcement on Sunday evening the 14th of January 2024: inventory was “lost” on the way to Penang from its Singapore factory.
  • Given AEM’s stellar corporate governance reputation up until now, this raises more than a few eyebrows: how is this even possible? 
  • 4Q23 results, due in a month, will feature a large restatement of FY23 results and lead to a major earnings loss. Any recovery is delayed into FY25.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results; AI PC Market Site Visit; Alchip GDR Offering

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC Results Tomorrow, Interest Will Be Elevated After Taiwan’s Election Result
  • AI PC Availability Tight in Taipei? We Visited Taipei’s Guanghua Consumer Electronics Market Over the Weekend
  • Alchip Technologies GDR Offering – Has Been Riding on an Unwavering Momentum Over the Past Year 

HSBC – Gap of USD15bn on Carrying Value Vs Fair Value of BoCom, as China Economy Weakens More

By Daniel Tabbush

  • HSBC holds 19% of BoCom and still carries it with a value of USD23.3bn despite the stock market valuation putting it closer to USD8.1bn on YE22 figures.
  • The bank cites its Value In Use testing as the justifiable reason for this gap, and this testing will include major assumptions like discount rates and long term growth rates.
  • Goodwill and other intangible charges were USD10.6bn in FY08, USD3.4bn in FY16, and USD7.4bn in FY19 for HSBC.

[Luckin Coffee(LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$43) TP Change]: Weak Earnings in 4Q23 but Better Outlook in 2024

By Eric Wen

  • In 4Q23, we expect Luckin Coffee revenue to increase 93% YoY to RMB7.1bn, and expect GPM/OPM to decline (5.8)/(1.3) ppt YoY to 19.0%/8.2%, respectively.
  • We cut 4Q23 operating income by 12%. In 2024, we raised our revenue estimate by 5% due to the speed up of new store opening schedule.
  • Furthermore, as price competition eased, we expect Luckin to offer less low-priced drinks, thus driving up OPM in 2024.

Perfect Medical: Updates, Stock at 10% Dividend Yield Post Correction

By Sameer Taneja

  • Negative China sentiment from where Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK) derives about 15-20% of its revenue is causing the company’s share price performance to remain lackluster. 
  • Stock trades on a 10% dividend yield with 15% of the market capitalization in cash, despite the outlook for HK, where it derives >75% of its revenue, is slightly better.
  • With a 10-year average ROE of the business >40% and a 10.8x PE for FY24e, this stock is a dividend gem worth exploring. 

Fabrinet: Initiation of Coverage – Revolution in Optics: Can They Dominate The AI Interconnect Market? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Fabrinet, a leading provider of advanced manufacturing services.
  • The company reported new quarterly records for both revenue and earnings per share (EPS), while free cash flow also hit a new quarterly high.
  • Furthermore, this strong revenue growth contributed to record non-GAAP net income of $2 per share.

CyberArk Software Ltd.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on software-based security solutions provider, CyberArk.
  • The company had a strong Q3 2023 with its bookings growth accelerating, total bookings significantly outpacing the company’s guidance framework and seeing a rise in demand for its platform.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

APAC Insurers Series (#4): How We See the 3 Insurance Stocks in 2024

By Alec Tseung

  • PICC P&C’s Q3 underwriting profitability deteriorated due to typhoon/catastrophe-related losses in both motor and non-motor business.
  • Samsung Life’s new business growth momentum continued in Q3’23; new business CSM margin slightly improved QoQ.
  • Prudential disclosed limited details in its Q3 results but we can see the growth trend of new business volume and profits continuing in the quarter.

LuxUrban Hotels (LUXH) : The Bed Sheets Should Be Made Out Of Red Flags

By Bleecker Street Research

  • LuxUrban Hotels (NASDAQ: LUXH) is a Miami-based hotel lessee and operator.
  • Founded in 2017, LuxUrban (then called CorpHousing Inc) initially focused on the short-term corporate housing market, leasing and then re-leasing houses to business travelers.
  • The pandemic severely impacted demand in that market and in 2021 LuxUrban exited the corporate rentals space.

Delivery Hero Ag (DELHY) – Wednesday, Oct 18, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • Delivery Hero is a dominant player in the global food delivery industry, operating in 74 countries and serving over 2 billion people with more than 3 billion annual orders.
  • The company’s market leadership is crucial for generating strong economic profits in the food delivery sector due to the network effects and scale advantages it provides.
  • Delivery Hero’s extensive selection of restaurants and dense delivery fleet enables them to deliver food quickly, maintaining its temperature and at a lower cost compared to competitors. However, despite these advantages, its profit outlook is concerning, casting doubts on its high enterprise value.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Macro: 44% of Korean Stocks Are Trading Below Book Value – FSC Wants to Improve This (Following Japan) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • 44% of Korean Stocks Are Trading Below Book Value – FSC Wants to Improve This (Following Japan)
  • Japan Taking a Trip Down Tightening Lane? Sure!
  • China Official House Price Growth Rates Turn More Negative In December 2023
  • [Counting Beans #5]: January WASDE Reaffirms Market’s Bearish Outlook
  • EA: Trend To Target Ready To Resume
  • 5 Things We Watch: US Recession, US Inflation, Euro Inflation, PCE Vs CPI, STIR Pricing
  • Investment Ideas: Asset allocation for equity bulls, and investing in Alibaba
  • EUR-Flation Watch: Why the ECB Is off by Miles in the Q1 Forecast
  • UK: Inflation Stimulates Hawks
  • USD Liquidity Watch: Treasury Selling Due to Bank Reserves Influx?


44% of Korean Stocks Are Trading Below Book Value – FSC Wants to Improve This (Following Japan)

By Douglas Kim

  • FSC Chairman Kim Joo-hyun mentioned that too many companies in Korea are trading below book value and the FSC plans to implement changes to improve upon this issue. 
  • According to Korea Exchange, 1,111 companies out of total listed in KOSPI and KOSDAQ in Korea (2,538) are trading at below 1x book value (PBR) (liquidation value). 
  • According to the Capital Group, about 39% of companies in the TOPIX trade below book value, compared to just 5% for companies in the S&P 500 Index. 

Japan Taking a Trip Down Tightening Lane? Sure!

By Jeroen Blokland

  • Many economists expect the Bank of Japan, after systematically refusing to adjust its extremely loose monetary policy will be the only country to raise interest rates in 2024.
  • If the Bank of Japan decides to raise interest rates, at the same time, global tightening momentum wanes, betting on a stronger yen is a sure thing.
  • But with inflation dropping, the Manufacturing PMI below 50, consumer spending and real wages declining, the window for tighter monetary policy is closing rapidly, and hence a long yen position.

China Official House Price Growth Rates Turn More Negative In December 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

  • Today’s NBS data for house price growth (new homes and the secondary market) for 70 major cities in December 2023 indicates further declines 
  • Aggregate figures and averages may not reflect the ‘on-the-ground’ feel, but the relative performance of cities should give a good indication of city-level dynamics
  • Chengdu, Shanghai, Xi’an, and Sanya finished with the relatively strongest growth rates year-on-year for the new home price growth

[Counting Beans #5]: January WASDE Reaffirms Market’s Bearish Outlook

By Pranay Yadav

  • Latest WASDE report reaffirmed market’s bearish outlook. Inventories of corn, wheat, and soybean are ample.
  • Asset managers are positioned heavily bearish on corn, wheat, and soybean. Wheat positioning is the least bearish.
  • Futures for corn, wheat, and soybean fell after WASDE release with corn futures underperforming. 

EA: Trend To Target Ready To Resume

By Phil Rush

  • The final EA HICP inflation print confirmed the flash rise to 2.9% for Dec-23. Energy price base effects, primarily related to a German subsidy scheme, were responsible.
  • Underlying inflation measures continued to slow, although their monthly impulse stayed close to a 2% annualised pace, consistent with converging towards the target.
  • Our EA inflation forecast is close to the consensus, but we share the ECB’s concern that wage settlements could stoke a renewed overshoot, which delays rate cuts to Q3.

5 Things We Watch: US Recession, US Inflation, Euro Inflation, PCE Vs CPI, STIR Pricing

By Ulrik Simmelholt

  • This week we’ll cover US recession talks and financial conditions.
  • We’ll also hone in on both US and European inflation and finally talk rates expectations.
  • This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro: US recession talks and financial conditions, NFIB vs Core CPI, EURflation, PCE vs CPI, STIR pricing.

Investment Ideas: Asset allocation for equity bulls, and investing in Alibaba

By Adventurous Investor

  • In my start-of-the-year note last week, I promised an updated asset allocation outline for investors with a strong equity focus, i.e. investors who are 100% exposed to equities with no diversification into bonds.
  • There’s no great magic to this exercise, as there are reference points you can work off.
  • Take the table below, which shows the mix of underlying assets in the All Global MSCI ACWI index (which includes emerging markets) and the Alliance Trust.

EUR-Flation Watch: Why the ECB Is off by Miles in the Q1 Forecast

By Andreas Steno

  • Welcome to this extremely table- and chart-heavy EUR-flation update.
  • Based on extensive public demand, we have updated our inflation models for all of the big four in the Euro zone and we reach the conclusion that the ECB is off by >1%-point and potentially more by March-2024.
  • After having updated our models, we see March HICP printing at 1.84% versus ECB at 2.9% (Q1-average) and a market pricing of 2.25% (or thereabout), which basically leaves inflation below target before the end of the quarter.

UK: Inflation Stimulates Hawks

By Phil Rush

  • UK CPI inflation defied expectations by rising to 4% in December. The headline and core rates were 0.2pp above the consensus, while the 0.1pp upside for us was all non-core.
  • Measures of underlying inflation broadly recovered after November’s weakness, as we expected, having identified it as a discount-related move using the microdata.
  • Wage settlements are far too high to be consistent with a sustainable return to the inflation target. This keeps our inflation and Bank rate forecasts relatively high.

USD Liquidity Watch: Treasury Selling Due to Bank Reserves Influx?

By Andreas Steno

  • US Treasury liquidity conditions remain weak and the turmoil in Treasuries during the third quarter of 2023 probably played a major role in the Powell pivot in December in hindsight.
  • There are signs of increasing liquidity stress in US Treasury markets again, but how is that possible during a regime of increasing bank reserves (USD liquidity).
  • It all has to do with the mechanics of leverage ratios in regulation.

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Daily Brief Thailand: Fabrinet and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Fabrinet: Initiation of Coverage – Revolution in Optics: Can They Dominate The AI Interconnect Market? – Major Drivers


Fabrinet: Initiation of Coverage – Revolution in Optics: Can They Dominate The AI Interconnect Market? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Fabrinet, a leading provider of advanced manufacturing services.
  • The company reported new quarterly records for both revenue and earnings per share (EPS), while free cash flow also hit a new quarterly high.
  • Furthermore, this strong revenue growth contributed to record non-GAAP net income of $2 per share.

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Daily Brief South Korea: EcoPro Materials, Samsung C&T and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • KOSPI Size Indices – The Outperformance Continues
  • A 140% Increase in Share Cancellations by Korean Companies from 2021 to 2023


KOSPI Size Indices – The Outperformance Continues

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices started 1 December and will end 29 February. The changes will be implemented at the close 14 March.
  • We currently see 3 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 3 new adds to LargeCap, 6 migrations from LargeCap to MidCap, and 11 migrations from SmallCap to MidCap.
  • Historically, stocks migrating from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed stocks that are migrating between other categories.

A 140% Increase in Share Cancellations by Korean Companies from 2021 to 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • The total amount of share cancellations by Korean companies increased sharply in the past three years. Share cancellations of 6.1 trillion won in 2023 represented a 140% increase from 2021.
  • Although the total amount of share cancellations of 6.1 trillion won in 2023 seems fairly large, this represented only 0.24% of total market caps of Korean companies. 
  • We also provide a list of seven Korean companies that have been targeted by activist investors  to cancel more shares and improve corporate governance. 

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Daily Brief Singapore: AEM, Yanlord Land and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • AEM: When Inventory Fell off the Truck On the Way to Penang…
  • Morning Views Asia: Yanlord Land


AEM: When Inventory Fell off the Truck On the Way to Penang…

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • AEM had a bizarre announcement on Sunday evening the 14th of January 2024: inventory was “lost” on the way to Penang from its Singapore factory.
  • Given AEM’s stellar corporate governance reputation up until now, this raises more than a few eyebrows: how is this even possible? 
  • 4Q23 results, due in a month, will feature a large restatement of FY23 results and lead to a major earnings loss. Any recovery is delayed into FY25.

Morning Views Asia: Yanlord Land

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief United States: S&P 500 INDEX, LuxUrban Hotels , Freshworks, Couchbase , Veralto , Geopark Ltd, Sps Commerce, CCC Intelligent Solutions Hold and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD | SPX DAILY LONG Reversal Probability Increasing
  • LuxUrban Hotels (LUXH) : The Bed Sheets Should Be Made Out Of Red Flags
  • Freshworks Inc: Initiation of Coverage – 4 Reasons Responsible For Their Future Growth! – Major Drivers
  • Couchbase Inc (BASE) – Wednesday, Oct 18, 2023
  • Veralto Corp -Spn (VLTO) – Wednesday, Oct 18, 2023
  • GeoPark Limited (NYSE: GPRK): Further exploration success in Colombia
  • SPS Commerce Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Its Bold Moves for Unstoppable Organic and Inorganic Growth! – Major Drivers
  • CCC Intelligent Solutions: Initiation of Coverage – Tech Takeover: How CCC Is Leading the Digital Transformation in Insurance! – Major Drivers


EQD | SPX DAILY LONG Reversal Probability Increasing

By Nico Rosti

  • The S&P 500 INDEX at the moment has lost its momentum and is pulling back towards the Q2 (4751) and Q3 (4713) support levels, where it would be DAILY OVERSOLD.
  • A DAILY reversal could happen today or tomorrow from prices between 4750 and 4700.
  • This trade is a quick scalp, the goal is to profit from a 1-bar reversal, after that we cannot predict the market direction, so caution is advised.

LuxUrban Hotels (LUXH) : The Bed Sheets Should Be Made Out Of Red Flags

By Bleecker Street Research

  • LuxUrban Hotels (NASDAQ: LUXH) is a Miami-based hotel lessee and operator.
  • Founded in 2017, LuxUrban (then called CorpHousing Inc) initially focused on the short-term corporate housing market, leasing and then re-leasing houses to business travelers.
  • The pandemic severely impacted demand in that market and in 2021 LuxUrban exited the corporate rentals space.

Freshworks Inc: Initiation of Coverage – 4 Reasons Responsible For Their Future Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Freshworks Inc, a renowned customer service software player.
  • Increased free cash flow along with a rise in the free cash flow margin to 14% likewise surpassed estimates.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

Couchbase Inc (BASE) – Wednesday, Oct 18, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • Couchbase offers a distributed, NoSQL database as an alternative to traditional relational databases, with three main products: Couchbase Server, Couchbase Mobile, and Capella.
  • The company is transitioning to a hosted model, similar to successful companies like MongoDB, ElasticSearch, and Hashicorp, which is expected to accelerate growth and improve efficiency.
  • If the transition is successful, Couchbase could see a potential upside of over 25% IRR and benefit from the advantages of NoSQL databases in managing unstructured data, dynamic schemas, and scaling efficiently.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Veralto Corp -Spn (VLTO) – Wednesday, Oct 18, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • Veralto, a recent spin-off from Danaher, is focused on providing water and product quality solutions.
  • The company can now concentrate on its core business and leverage its advanced technology and strong global brands.
  • With a solid financial profile and a presence in attractive end markets, Veralto is well-positioned to meet the growing demand for water analytics and treatment solutions.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


GeoPark Limited (NYSE: GPRK): Further exploration success in Colombia

By Auctus Advisors

  • The Perico-1 exploration well at CPO-5 encountered hydrocarbons in the Barco (Guadalupe) formation.
  • The well is currently producing 650 bbl/d of 14 deg API oil with 8% water cut.
  • This is an important well that confirms the extension of the Llanos-34 Guadalupe play into CPO-5 and is probably derisking further prospects.

SPS Commerce Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Its Bold Moves for Unstoppable Organic and Inorganic Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on SPS Commerce, the provider of on-demand supply chain management solutions.
  • The company’s total revenue increment by 18% in the quarter was notable, and the recurring revenue showed a promising 20% increase.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

CCC Intelligent Solutions: Initiation of Coverage – Tech Takeover: How CCC Is Leading the Digital Transformation in Insurance! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings, Inc., an automobile claims solution provider.
  • The company delivered a strong performance in the third quarter of 2023, marked by a significant increase in revenues and robust customer growth.
  • For the third quarter, CCC generated a total revenue of $221 million, noting an increase of about 11% year-over-year, above the guidance range.

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Daily Brief India: Axis Bank Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Is Axis Capital an Investment Bank or a Hedge Fund?


Is Axis Capital an Investment Bank or a Hedge Fund?

By Hemindra Hazari

  • Axis Capital is a 100% subsidiary of Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN) and one of its businesses is structured finance
  • The Sojo Infotel is a high-risk transaction undertaken by Axis Capital which was underwritten by the company with the implicit support of the bank as per the credit rating agency
  • When the transaction was done it was 50% of Axis Capital’s equity and default risk is high as the redemption date is on March 25, 2024

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Daily Brief China: Weiqiao Textile Co, Mixue Group, HSBC Holdings, Luckin Coffee, Perfect Medical Health, Prudential , Guming Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Weiqiao Textile (2698 HK): Pre-Condition Satisfied as Prudence Edges Towards a Blocking Stake
  • MIXUE Group Pre-IPO – The Positives – Leading by a Mile
  • HSBC – Gap of USD15bn on Carrying Value Vs Fair Value of BoCom, as China Economy Weakens More
  • Weiqiao Textile (2698 HK): Pre-Cons Done. Payment (Perhaps) Late March
  • [Luckin Coffee(LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$43) TP Change]: Weak Earnings in 4Q23 but Better Outlook in 2024
  • Perfect Medical: Updates, Stock at 10% Dividend Yield Post Correction
  • APAC Insurers Series (#4): How We See the 3 Insurance Stocks in 2024
  • MIXUE Group Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Declining GMV Share
  • Pre-IPO Guming Holdings – The Current Market Position Is Not Secure


Weiqiao Textile (2698 HK): Pre-Condition Satisfied as Prudence Edges Towards a Blocking Stake

By Arun George

  • Weiqiao Textile Co (2698 HK)’s offer pre-condition is satisfied. Prudence has increased its shareholding to 3.39% of the outstanding shares (9.79% of H Shares), marginally short of a blocking stake.  
  • The HK$3.50 offer has been declared final, which rules out a bump. Therefore, Prudence’s strategy could be to play the gross spread or to block the deal.
  • The Shandong Luoxin Pharmaceutical (8058 HK) precedent supports the gross spread play view. However, unlike the precedent, Prudence is marginally short of a blocking stake in Weiqiao Textile.  

MIXUE Group Pre-IPO – The Positives – Leading by a Mile

By Sumeet Singh

  • Mixue Group is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
  • MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

HSBC – Gap of USD15bn on Carrying Value Vs Fair Value of BoCom, as China Economy Weakens More

By Daniel Tabbush

  • HSBC holds 19% of BoCom and still carries it with a value of USD23.3bn despite the stock market valuation putting it closer to USD8.1bn on YE22 figures.
  • The bank cites its Value In Use testing as the justifiable reason for this gap, and this testing will include major assumptions like discount rates and long term growth rates.
  • Goodwill and other intangible charges were USD10.6bn in FY08, USD3.4bn in FY16, and USD7.4bn in FY19 for HSBC.

Weiqiao Textile (2698 HK): Pre-Cons Done. Payment (Perhaps) Late March

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 4th December, Weiqiao Textile Co (2698 HK) announced a pre-conditional privatisation at HK$3.50 per H-share, a chunky 104.68% premium to last close and around a six-year high
  • Pre-Conditions – regulatory approval from NDRC, MoC and SAFE – have now been fulfilled. The Composite Doc is expected to be dispatched on or before the 24 January. 
  • This Offer is a Merger by Absorption incorporating a Scheme-like vote. There is no tendering condition. Prudence Investment Management, which has now built a 9.79% stake, will be supportive.

[Luckin Coffee(LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$43) TP Change]: Weak Earnings in 4Q23 but Better Outlook in 2024

By Eric Wen

  • In 4Q23, we expect Luckin Coffee revenue to increase 93% YoY to RMB7.1bn, and expect GPM/OPM to decline (5.8)/(1.3) ppt YoY to 19.0%/8.2%, respectively.
  • We cut 4Q23 operating income by 12%. In 2024, we raised our revenue estimate by 5% due to the speed up of new store opening schedule.
  • Furthermore, as price competition eased, we expect Luckin to offer less low-priced drinks, thus driving up OPM in 2024.

Perfect Medical: Updates, Stock at 10% Dividend Yield Post Correction

By Sameer Taneja

  • Negative China sentiment from where Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK) derives about 15-20% of its revenue is causing the company’s share price performance to remain lackluster. 
  • Stock trades on a 10% dividend yield with 15% of the market capitalization in cash, despite the outlook for HK, where it derives >75% of its revenue, is slightly better.
  • With a 10-year average ROE of the business >40% and a 10.8x PE for FY24e, this stock is a dividend gem worth exploring. 

APAC Insurers Series (#4): How We See the 3 Insurance Stocks in 2024

By Alec Tseung

  • PICC P&C’s Q3 underwriting profitability deteriorated due to typhoon/catastrophe-related losses in both motor and non-motor business.
  • Samsung Life’s new business growth momentum continued in Q3’23; new business CSM margin slightly improved QoQ.
  • Prudential disclosed limited details in its Q3 results but we can see the growth trend of new business volume and profits continuing in the quarter.

MIXUE Group Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Declining GMV Share

By Sumeet Singh

  • Mixue Group is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Pre-IPO Guming Holdings – The Current Market Position Is Not Secure

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Guming generates revenue mainly from the sales of goods/equipment to its franchisees (or ToB business). So, Guming’s future growth depends significantly on its ability to operate and expand store network.
  • China’s freshly-made beverage market is highly competitive. Guming is unlikely to catch up with MIXUE, but Guming will be overtaken by the rest players if it fails to compete effectively.
  • Due to Guming’s business model, investors’re hard to see the real picture of Guming solely based on its revenue/profits. Guming’s valuation should be higher than Nayuki but lower than MIXUE.

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Daily Brief Japan: Anycolor , Yamae Group Holdings, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • TOPIX Jan FFW Change – Visional (4194), Anycolor (5032), Furuya Metal (7826)
  • Yamae Group Placement – Would Result in a Large Dilution, Although Its Momentum Has Been Strong
  • Investors Expect a Feasible Management Strategy Rather than an Accurate Cost of Capital
  • Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical (4530 JP): OTC Business Is on Strong Footing; FY24 Guidance Raise


TOPIX Jan FFW Change – Visional (4194), Anycolor (5032), Furuya Metal (7826)

By Travis Lundy

  • Late last week, the TSE announced the changes in FFW for companies which have FY-end in the calendar Q2. Changes at 30 Jan close also include Phased Weighting Changes.
  • There are two additions and 61 upweights (including net effect of PWR/PWIs). There are 456 down-weights with two-way flows of about US$1bn. There is a tiny funding trade.
  • Visional (4194 JP) and Furuya Metal (7826 JP) are the two adds. Other large dollar upweights are Asahi Intecc (7747 JP) and Anycolor (5032 JP)

Yamae Group Placement – Would Result in a Large Dilution, Although Its Momentum Has Been Strong

By Clarence Chu

  • Yamae Group Holdings (7130 JP) is looking to raise US$115m from a primary follow-on. As per the firm, proceeds will be used to pay down its acquisition-linked debt.
  • We would argue that the deal is somewhat well flagged given the firm’s track record of acquisitions, with the most recent being Confex Holdings.
  • That being said, the deal would result in a large dilution for the firm, and would be a large one to digest at 48 days of Yamae’s three month ADV.

Investors Expect a Feasible Management Strategy Rather than an Accurate Cost of Capital

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Although there’s range in the cost of capital, a sense of level is shared among investors, so even if a company estimates lower, it will be found to be incorrect.
  • The essential problem isn’t scrutiny of the cost of capital, but rather that many companies produce low returns. Investors are skeptical that companies produce returns above their cost of capital.
  • If stock prices do not rise, investors will continue to demand that companies improve their management, attributing this to the negative gap between the cost of capital and return.

Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical (4530 JP): OTC Business Is on Strong Footing; FY24 Guidance Raise

By Tina Banerjee

  • Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP) has reported double-digit revenue and net profit growth in Q3FY24, mainly driven by 21% YoY growth in Salonpas focused OTC pharmaceutical products.
  • The company attributes OTC product revenue growth to aggressive sales promotion activities in Japan and overseas, recovery of domestic economic activity and inbound demand, and impact of the weaker yen.
  • Encouraged by Salonpas revenue recovery, Hisamitsu has raised FY24 guidance. The company has revised FY24 revenue guidance upward by 7% to ¥141 billion (up 10% YoY) from ¥132 billion.

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Daily Brief Utilities: Citicore Renewable Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Citicore Renewable Energy Pre-IPO Tearsheet


Citicore Renewable Energy Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Citicore Renewable Energy (CREC PM) is looking to raise around US$200m in its upcoming Philippines IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are UBS, and BDO Capital.
  • Citicore Renewable Energy (CREC) is a pure-play renewable energy platform focused on developing and operating renewable energy projects in the Philippines.
  • As per Lantau, the firm was the second largest solar energy generator in the Philippines, in terms of installed solar capacity.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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