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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Asmedia Technology, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Travelsky Technology Ltd H, IndiaMart, iShares MSCI ACWI ETF, Softbank Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • TSMC. Roaring Into Year Of The Dragon
  • ASMedia Placement – Momentum Has Been Strong, but an Overhang Exists
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADRs Outpace Local, Extreme Spread; ChipMOS Good Long Level
  • Travelsky (696 HK | BUY | TP:HKD9.92): Forget 2023, Think of 2024-25 Which Will Be Much Better
  • Indiamart Intermesh (INDIAMART) – Friday, Oct 20, 2023
  • Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare
  • Softbank (9984 JP): Big Fat NAV Discount, but Headwinds Outweigh Tailwinds Going Forward


TSMC. Roaring Into Year Of The Dragon

By William Keating

  • Q423 revenues of $19.62 billion, at the high end of guidance, up 13.8% QoQ and down 1.5% YoY. Net profit margin of 38.2% results in net income of ~$7.5 billion.
  • FY23 revenues of $69.3 billion, down 8.7% YoY, only the second such down year since 2005
  • Bullish FY24 forecast for >20% YoY growth sends share price soaring in overnight trading. 

ASMedia Placement – Momentum Has Been Strong, but an Overhang Exists

By Clarence Chu

  • WT Microelectronics (3036 TT) is looking to raise US$256m from selling half of its stake in Asmedia Technology (5269 TT).
  • The deal wouldn’t be a very large one to process at just 3.4 days of ASMedia’s ADV.
  • Although, the selldown doesn’t appear to be particularly well flagged. The remaining WT Microelectronics’ stake will also create an overhang on ASMedia’s share price as well.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADRs Outpace Local, Extreme Spread; ChipMOS Good Long Level

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: Stock Prices Soared After Reporting Earnings, But ADR Rose Higher… Now +12.4% Premium, Shortable Level
  • ASE: ADR Spread Has Rebounded Substantially, Now +8.6%. Not Yet at Short Levels.
  • ChipMOS: ADR Spread Drops to -2.2%, Good Level to Go Long.

Travelsky (696 HK | BUY | TP:HKD9.92): Forget 2023, Think of 2024-25 Which Will Be Much Better

By Mohshin Aziz

  • Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK) (TravelSky) issued its 2023 operating statistics and a profit warning that is far below market expectations, the share price has plunged by 36% 
  • Our analysis suggests that staff cost, commission, and systems costs have soared. This will be contained when traffic accelerates and absorbs these fixed cost items 
  • Our target price of HKD9.92 (+21% UPSIDE) is based on 2024 PE 14.8x (1SD below mean). Keep an eye, worthwhile trade, due for a bounce    

Indiamart Intermesh (INDIAMART) – Friday, Oct 20, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • IndiaMart is India’s largest online B2B marketplace with a market cap of $2 billion.
  • The company has a 60% market share of B2B e-commerce in India, indicating a large potential for growth.
  • IndiaMart benefits from a negative working capital business model, upfront supplier subscription payments, and a net cash balance sheet. It also has the option to invest in new business lines to expand its monetization opportunities. Despite limited advertising spend, the platform attracts over 1 billion in traffic.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

By Joe Jasper

  • We see global equities (MSCI ACWI) going through a pause/pullback amid short-term breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and global sovereign 10-year yields.
  • A rising DXY and climbing yields is a near-term headwind, and we could continue to see more choppy price action in the weeks ahead.
  • With that said, as long as the DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and ACWI-US is above $98, we would view pullbacks as buying opportunities.

Softbank (9984 JP): Big Fat NAV Discount, but Headwinds Outweigh Tailwinds Going Forward

By Victor Galliano

  • SoftBank group’s headline NAV discount is over 50%, factoring in the T-Mobile shares windfall at December-end
  • SoftBank Corp is looking to IPO digital payments company PayPay, which should also be a positive driver for SoftBank Group shares going forward, but only a marginal one
  • Arm shares have been defying gravity, but we see downside risk going forward, as well as questions over SVF1 and SVF2 private company valuations; and the threat of JPY appreciation

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Daily Brief Industrials: Limbach Holdings , Marel HF and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Limbach Holdings Inc (LMB) – Friday, Oct 20, 2023
  • Meaty Target


Limbach Holdings Inc (LMB) – Friday, Oct 20, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • IBP is a leading roll-up strategist in the building industry, having executed over 100 acquisitions in a short period of time.
  • The company leverages its national platform, supplier relationships, and operational expertise to enhance value while keeping the acquired companies’ local brands, talent, and customer relationships intact.
  • IBP’s successful acquisition strategy, along with its strong commitment to timely delivery and solid financial position, has helped the company become a key player in the insulation industry.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Meaty Target

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Marel HF (MARL IR) announced a third proposal from John Bean Technologies (JBT US) for a cash and shares offer, equivalent €3.60/share, to be launched in Q1, with 24.7% irrevocable undertakings.
  • There is strong market growth potential, due to growing middle-class demanding a higher proportion of animal protein in their diet. The overall sector, despite global economic woes, seems piping hot.
  • My base-case fair value estimate is €3.54 (9.0% WACC, 2% implied perpetuity growth rate). The median IBES consensus TP is €3.50. On this basis, the offer price seems fair. Buy.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Genetron Holdings Ltd, GUPPY’s Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Genetron Holdings (GTH US): Clear Diagnosis
  • Medley (4480) To Buy Out Guppy’s (5127) At ¥3,250 (9.4x Aug26 EV/FCF)


Genetron Holdings (GTH US): Clear Diagnosis

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 11th October 2023, Genetron Holdings Ltd (GTH US), a precision oncology platform, entered into a definitive take-private transaction, at $4.08/ADS, a 15% premium to undisturbed.
  • The EGM for shareholders to vote on the transaction will be held on the 21 February. The record date is the 9 Feb.
  • This merger requires approval from at least two-thirds of the votes cast, and 59.7% are supportive. Trading at a gross spread of 7.7%. This is a clean deal.

Medley (4480) To Buy Out Guppy’s (5127) At ¥3,250 (9.4x Aug26 EV/FCF)

By Travis Lundy

  • Medley (4480 JP) operates recruitment platforms in healthcare, elsewhere. GUPPY’s Inc (5127 JP) does too. They also offer exam prep for two niches where they have super-high market share.
  • GUPPY’s was listed 18mos ago, and the founder wants out. The deal is a nice premium (+86%) but it isn’t as generous a deal as it could be. 
  • That said, the shareholder structure looks like this deal gets done pretty easily. 

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Daily Brief Industrials: Limbach Holdings , Marel HF and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Limbach Holdings Inc (LMB) – Friday, Oct 20, 2023
  • Meaty Target


Limbach Holdings Inc (LMB) – Friday, Oct 20, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • IBP is a leading roll-up strategist in the building industry, having executed over 100 acquisitions in a short period of time.
  • The company leverages its national platform, supplier relationships, and operational expertise to enhance value while keeping the acquired companies’ local brands, talent, and customer relationships intact.
  • IBP’s successful acquisition strategy, along with its strong commitment to timely delivery and solid financial position, has helped the company become a key player in the insulation industry.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Meaty Target

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Marel HF (MARL IR) announced a third proposal from John Bean Technologies (JBT US) for a cash and shares offer, equivalent €3.60/share, to be launched in Q1, with 24.7% irrevocable undertakings.
  • There is strong market growth potential, due to growing middle-class demanding a higher proportion of animal protein in their diet. The overall sector, despite global economic woes, seems piping hot.
  • My base-case fair value estimate is €3.54 (9.0% WACC, 2% implied perpetuity growth rate). The median IBES consensus TP is €3.50. On this basis, the offer price seems fair. Buy.

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Daily Brief Financials: Dai Ichi Life Insurance, Country Garden Services, Axactor ASA, FirstCash Holdings , NIFTY Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Dai-Ichi Life Holdings – 4 Quarters Strongly Rising Profit, ROE: 3% to 12%, A Profit Upgrade?
  • Country Garden Pledges to Deliver More Than 480,000 Homes in 2024
  • Axactor – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Firstcash Holdings Inc (FCFS) – Friday, Oct 20, 2023
  • EQD | NIFTY Pullback Already OVERSOLD: Prepare for WEEKLY LONG Trade


Dai-Ichi Life Holdings – 4 Quarters Strongly Rising Profit, ROE: 3% to 12%, A Profit Upgrade?

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP) has seen rebounding net profit at a strong rate of growth for the past four quarters.
  • ROE has moved from a dismal 3.4% to 11.8% from 2Q23 to 2Q24, where a single US bank impairment should now drop out of the numbers
  • New business annual premiums are up from JPY97bn to JPY122bn from 2Q23 to 2Q24 with a high solvency ratio of 654%

Country Garden Pledges to Deliver More Than 480,000 Homes in 2024

By Caixin Global

  • Chinese property developer Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. vowed to deliver more than 480,000 homes in 2024, a more modest target than 2023 after it failed to achieve its 700,000-unit goal last year.
  • The focus of 2024 is still to “guarantee delivery, guarantee operation and guarantee credit,” of which delivery is the bottom line that Country Garden “must firmly hold,” Chairwoman Yang Huiyan said at the developer’s annual meeting Monday.
  • Country Garden, once China’s No. 1 developer by sales, delivered more than 600,000 units last year, short of its goal set at the beginning of 2023, the developer said.

Axactor – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
  • We assess Axactor’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its “Adequate” Social and Governance scores. The company has a “Weak” score for the Environmental pillar. Controversies are “Material” and Disclosure is “Weak”. 
  • Axactor is a Norway-headquartered debt purchaser and servicer founded in 2015. Its core business is the purchase of non-performing debt in the Nordics, Spain, Germany and Italy.

Firstcash Holdings Inc (FCFS) – Friday, Oct 20, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • FCFS has a strong growth potential with an estimated 6% to 12% growth.
  • The company has a well-diversified business model, with pawn shops in both the US and Mexico, indicating a strong cash flow generation.
  • FCFS benefits from serving the underbanked population, providing a stable customer base and making it a solid investment option with a track record of outperformance and potential for future growth.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


EQD | NIFTY Pullback Already OVERSOLD: Prepare for WEEKLY LONG Trade

By Nico Rosti

  • Last week at Close the NIFTY Index was OVERBOUGHT, this week it became quickly OVERSOLD, bouncing off from a price area near the Inner Fence support  levels for CC=-1.
  • Another week down is possible but we see strong support in the 21250-20800 price area.
  • Should that support area be reached, it would be a good opportunity to re-enter this index’s Bull market.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Travelodge Hotels , TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, 4imprint, Upfield BV and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Travelodge – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • What Can Be Done to Make the Independence of the Committee Function that Investors Have Questioned?
  • 4imprint Group – FY23 finishes strongly
  • Upfield – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics


Travelodge – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).

We view Travelodge’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.

Travelodge is the second-largest hotel chain in the UK, based on the number of hotels and rooms operated.


What Can Be Done to Make the Independence of the Committee Function that Investors Have Questioned?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • While disclosure of committee activities in annual securities report provides clues to the independence of committee, this might create higher hurdle for moving to Company with US type 3 Committees.
  • Based on the premise that disclosure of committee activities can change management’s mindset and enable committees to function, more specific details should need to be disclosed to all listed companies.
  • Many companies have nominating committees that meet 1-2 times a year before the AGM. Few companies have a Succession Plan, which is of great interest to investors.

4imprint Group – FY23 finishes strongly

By Edison Investment Research

4imprint’s year-end trading update indicates that 2023 was a strong year for the group’s financial performance. Revenue of $1.33bn is in line with guidance reiterated in November of ‘slightly above $1.3bn’, but PBT is now guided at ‘not below $140m’, above our previous expectation of $131m. We attribute the stronger profitability to a combination of higher gross margin and marketing efficiency. Strong cash performance resulted in the year-end balance of $105m exceeding our prior $84m estimate. Our revised FY24 and provisional FY25 profit and cash estimates are pushed ahead on this higher base on a 10% operating margin. The shares continue to trade at a substantial discount to our DCF valuation.


Upfield – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
  • We assess Upfield’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.
  • Upfield (formerly Flora Food Group) is the world’s leading producer of margarine and other spreads.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jan 19th): Tencent and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jan 19th): Tencent, Meituan, Aia
  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 12th): Aristocrat Leisu, IDP Education, Fortescue, South32, BHP, CSL


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jan 19th): Tencent, Meituan, Aia

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jan 19th based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), AIA (1299 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), AIA (1299 HK).

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 12th): Aristocrat Leisu, IDP Education, Fortescue, South32, BHP, CSL

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jan 12th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD18.6bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Aristocrat Leisu, IDP Education, Fortescue, South32, Star Entertainme, BHP, CSL, Wesfarmers.

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Daily Brief ESG: Travelodge – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Travelodge – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • What Can Be Done to Make the Independence of the Committee Function that Investors Have Questioned?
  • Axactor – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Upfield – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics


Travelodge – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).

We view Travelodge’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.

Travelodge is the second-largest hotel chain in the UK, based on the number of hotels and rooms operated.


What Can Be Done to Make the Independence of the Committee Function that Investors Have Questioned?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • While disclosure of committee activities in annual securities report provides clues to the independence of committee, this might create higher hurdle for moving to Company with US type 3 Committees.
  • Based on the premise that disclosure of committee activities can change management’s mindset and enable committees to function, more specific details should need to be disclosed to all listed companies.
  • Many companies have nominating committees that meet 1-2 times a year before the AGM. Few companies have a Succession Plan, which is of great interest to investors.

Axactor – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
  • We assess Axactor’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its “Adequate” Social and Governance scores. The company has a “Weak” score for the Environmental pillar. Controversies are “Material” and Disclosure is “Weak”. 
  • Axactor is a Norway-headquartered debt purchaser and servicer founded in 2015. Its core business is the purchase of non-performing debt in the Nordics, Spain, Germany and Italy.

Upfield – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
  • We assess Upfield’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.
  • Upfield (formerly Flora Food Group) is the world’s leading producer of margarine and other spreads.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Money Forward and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | Money Forward, Advantest Top Performers
  • Auctus on Friday – 19/01/2024
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]: 1211HK/XPEV/NIO/9995HK/TCOM/1024HK/780HK/3690HK
  • [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:NTES/BABA/PDD/3690 HK/JD/VIPS/1219 HK/SHEIN/AMZN/SE/MELI


Japan Weekly | Money Forward, Advantest Top Performers

By Mark Chadwick

  • Japanese stocks have maintained their positive start to the year. The Nikkei average rose by +1.1% on the week with chip stocks leading the gains.
  • Money Forward was up +19% on strong Q4 sales (+42% YoY); Adjusted EBITDA at record high of 1.2 billion yen
  • Activist Oasis wants a say on Shidax MBO; Earnings season kicks up a gear next week

Auctus on Friday – 19/01/2024

By Auctus Advisors

  • GeoPark (GPRK US)C; target price of US$24 per share: Further exploration success in Colombia – The Perico-1 exploration well at CPO-5 encountered hydrocarbons in the Barco (Guadalupe) formation.
  • The Halcon-1 well at CPO-5 that also encountered potential hydrocarbons in the Guadalupe flowed at intermittent rates.
  • Pharos Energy (PHAR LN)C; target price of £0.50 per share: Reducing net debt by a further US$10 mm – FY23 production was 6,508 boe/d, which is the middle of the production guidance of 6.35-6.75 mboe/d.

[Blue Lotus Daily]: 1211HK/XPEV/NIO/9995HK/TCOM/1024HK/780HK/3690HK

By Eric Wen

  • XPEV/ NIO: Xpeng and NIO’s weekly sales show weakness (-)
  • 9995 HK: Rumors about RemeGen’s ADC to Pfizer might be returned (-)
  • TCOM/1024 HK/780 HK/3690 HK: Ctrip cooperate with Kuaishou to promote traveling products (+)

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:NTES/BABA/PDD/3690 HK/JD/VIPS/1219 HK/SHEIN/AMZN/SE/MELI

By Ying Pan

  • NTES: NetEase Announces <Eggy Party>’s Spin-off Game <Project Three> (+)
  • 1219 HK/ PDD/ SHEIN/ BABA: Temu negotiating with J&T for cooperation in overseas last-mile services (+)
  • PDD/ SHEIN/ AMZN/  SE/ MELI: Temu launches in South Africa (+/-)

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare


Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

By Joe Jasper

  • We see global equities (MSCI ACWI) going through a pause/pullback amid short-term breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and global sovereign 10-year yields.
  • A rising DXY and climbing yields is a near-term headwind, and we could continue to see more choppy price action in the weeks ahead.
  • With that said, as long as the DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and ACWI-US is above $98, we would view pullbacks as buying opportunities.

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